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I n t e r n a t i o n a l L a

International Labour Office

I n t e r n a t i o n a l L a b

International Social Security Association

I n t e r n a t i o n a l L a b

t

δ

ρ

γ

β

i

µ x d µ x

θ .

γ

γ βθ

δ > ργ+

(,0 dt ) dt (,t t + dt ) e dt t e γ t

e β t t

ρ

t

A(t)

R(t)

A(t) R(t)

ρ

b

(x, y) y x b r w

b σ S e ρσ R R’ S’ ρ

t = w 1

R(t) A(t)

R ' ( t ) > 0

'

R

( t ) ( t )

( t ) ( t )

A

'

( t ) ( t )

R

'

R

A

A

'

>

( t )

== ρ

R

A

( t )

( <

t

(

t

w

1

w

1

)

)

B(t)

S(t)

B(t) (,z z + dz )

B(t) ( = ρ + γ ) γ b

S e γσ R G K R’, S’ γ

B(t) β B(t) β γ γ

B(t)/S(t) t = w 2

B(t) B(t) S(t)

B ' ( t

) > 0

'

B

( t ) ( t )

S

'

( t ) ( t )

B

S

>

'

B

( t ) ( t )

S

'

( t ) ( t )

B

S

=

=+ρ

γ

( <

t

w

2

(

t

w

2

)

)

B(t)

C(t)

V(t) δ

B(t) S(t)

dV ()t =+V ()t δ dt

C ()t S ()t dt B ()t dt

(,n m ) t = n e t = m :

V m e

(

)

δδ

−−

mn

(

V n e

=+

)

m

n

[

C t S t

( )

( )

( )]

B t e

δ

t

dt

V(m)

V m

(

)

=+

V n e

(

)

δ

(

mn

)

m

n

[

C t S t

( )

( )

( )]

B t e

δ

mt

()

dt

n = 0 V(0) = 0 , a seguinte expressão retrospectiva para V(m) é obtida:

V m

(

) =

e

δ

m

m

0

[

C t S t

( )

( )

( )]

B t e

δ

t

dt

0

C t S t e dt

() ()

δ

t

=

0

B t e dt

()

δ

t

δ ρ + γ

m

0

[

C t S t

()

() ()

B t

]

δ

t

e dt

=

m

[

B t

() () ()

C t S t

]

e

δ

t

dt

V m

(

) =

e

δ

m

m

[

B t

() () ()

C t S t

]

e

δ

t

dt

C(t) V(m) C(t) V(t)

C(t) V(t) C (t ) 0 V (t ) 0 t C(t) V(t)

V (t ) = 0 t

C ( t )

=

B

( t ) ( t )

S

V (t ) = 0 t

0 ( n + 1)

m = n + 1 Vn() = Vn(

PAYG n

+ 1

+=1)

=

n

n

n

n

+

1

B t e dt

( )

δ

t

+

1

S t e dt

( )

δ

t

PAYG n

+

1

=

n

n

+

1

B t dt

(

)

n

n

+

1

S t dt

(

)

t = m Ct( ) = C (,m )

C =

m

B t e dt V m e

()

(

)

δ

t

δ

m

m

δ

t

S ( t ) e dt

GAP =

0

B t e dt

( )

δ

t

0

S ( )

t e dt

δ

t

B(t) S(t)

Bt( ) =+B12(t )

B

(t );

St( ) =+S12(t )

S (t )

B1(t) S1(t) B2(t) S2(t)

0

B 1 ( t ) e dt

δ

t

AP =

1

0

S 1 ( t )

e dt

δ

t

0

B

2 ( t ) e

δ

t

dt

0

S

2 ( t ) e

δ

t

dt

δ

 

t

dt

AP =

2

0

()

S t e

1

δ

t

0

AP 22 S

AP1

dt

+

() t e

GAP =

0

S ( t ) e dt

δ

t

AP1 > GAP > AP 2

C(t) t, C(t)

Ka(t)dt (,t t + dt ) Ka(t)

0

B t e dt =

()

δ

t

0

Ka t e dt

()

δ

t

0

C t S t e dt

() ()

δ

t

=

0

Ka t e dt

()

δ

t

TFS(t)

TFS( t )

Ka ( t )

=

S ( t )

Ka(t) ρ + γ TFS(t) TFS(t) t

V(n)

(

V n

) = e

δ

n

n

0

[

Ka t

() ()

B t

]

δ

t

e dt

V(t)

(,0

)

h ( w ,)

w

2

2

(,n m )

( num

)

(

V u

)

=+

V n e

(

)

δ

(

u n

)

u

n

[

() ()

C t S t

()

B t

]

e

δ

()

u

t

dt

C (t ) 0 V (t ) 0

C(t) V(u) Vn() = Vm(

C

) = 0

C =

m

n

B

(

t ) e dt

δ

t

 
 

S

(

t ) e dt

δ

t

m

n

t = m

k =

V

( t ) ( t )

B

k 0 V(m)

C =

k B ( m ) e

0

δ

m

+

m

n

B () t e

δδ

−−

tn

dt V ( n ) e

m

n

δ

t

S ( t ) e dt

(,n m ) (,n u ) n < m u

t = m

λ

=

B

()

t CS t

()

δ

V

( t )

λ < 0 0 < λ < 1 λ > 1

t = m λ 0

C =

B ( m ) e

δ

m

+

δλ

0

m

n

B () t e dt

δδ

−−

tn

δλ

0

V ( n ) e

Sme ( )

δ

m

+

δλ

0

m

n

Ste () dt

δ

tt

λ 0 (,n m )

(,n u )

num< <

λ = 1 t = m λ < 1 ntm< < (,n m ) t = m

( w ,) π t = w 2

2

t = w 2

()

V w

2

+

Sw

(

2

+

π

0

S w

(

2

+

z e

)

δ

z

dz

0

=+

2

B w

(

z e

)

δ

z

)

=

Sw e

()

2

(

ρ+γ

) z

Bw(

2 +

t = w 2

z

dz

z )

δ > ρ + γ

Vw( )(

2

δ

−−ργ

)

=

Bw(

)

π

Sw( )

22

(,0

(,

n

1 )

0 n )

1

'

t = n 1

Vn( ) Vn() '

'

'

(, )

n n

1

2

2

=

1

'

(, )

n n

1

2

'

'

t = n 2

(,

0 n )

'

1

(, )

n n

1

2

'

'

(,n m ) π (,n m )

) = 0

' (

t = m V m

V m =

(

)

Bm

(

)

π

(,

nmSm

)

(

)

δ

(,n m )

π

(, ) =

n m

B m e

(

)

δ

m

+

δ

m

n

()

B z e

δδ

−−

zn

dz

()

V n e

δ

Sme

(

)

δ

m

+

δ

m

n

()

S ze

δ

z

ddz

B t

' ( ) > 0 Bt( )/ St( )

(,n m )

h + 1

( w ,)

2

π (1)

π ( h )

h π ( h + 1) π ( h )

V ( w )

δ =

Bw( )

22

π

()hSw( )

2

Vw( )(

2

δ

−−ργ

)

=

Bw(

)

π

( h

+ 1

) Sw( )

22

V ( w ) π ( h + 1)

2

π

( h +=)

1

π

()h

1

+

+

ρ γ

+

ρ γ

δ

δ

PAYG*

' () = ( ρ + γ )

V t

()

Vt

δ δ ρ γ π ( h + 1) = π ()h

b r K(x) F(x) (bxr )

r

a s

l

z

z

γ

K ( z ) e

zb

()

−−

e

δ

()

zb

b

r

s

b l

a

l b

b

a s

r

r

a

100 l s

b

b

γ

e

( r b

) δ ( )

ee

r b

a

r

dz =

l x a s x

a r δ − β δ, γ β

r

b

D

δγ

as ()

z

K z dz =

)

(

r

b

D

as

a

δγ−−δβ

()(

p

100

r

r

)

a p s s x

x b x

F () x

=

x

b

a

l

z

s

z

a

l

b

s

b

K z e

()

γ

(

zb

δ

)(

e

xz

)

dz

Fx ()

=

e

δ

(

x b

)

x

b

D

as (

z

as (

δ )

γ

δ )

γ

D

b

()

K z dz