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WILLIAM J. RIPPLE, CHRISTOPHER WOLF, THOMAS M. NEWSOME, PHOEBE BARNARD, WILLIAM R. MOOMAW,
AND 11,258 SCIENTIST SIGNATORIES FROM 153 COUNTRIES (LIST IN SUPPLEMENTAL FILE S1)
Figure 1. Change in global human activities from 1979 to the present. These indicators are linked at least in part to Downloaded from https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/advance-article-abstract/doi/10.1093/biosci/biz088/5610806 by Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro user on 06 November 2019
climate change. In panel (f), annual tree cover loss may be for any reason (e.g., wildfire, harvest within tree plantations,
or conversion of forests to agricultural land). Forest gain is not involved in the calculation of tree cover loss. In panel (h),
hydroelectricity and nuclear energy are shown in figure S2. The rates shown in panels are the percentage changes per
decade across the entire range of the time series. The annual data are shown using gray points. The black lines are local
regression smooth trend lines. Abbreviation: Gt oe per year, gigatonnes of oil equivalent per year. Sources and additional
details about each variable are provided in supplemental file S2, including table S2.
as usual and have largely failed to more severe than anticipated, threat- reinforcing feedbacks (atmospheric,
address this predicament (figure 1). ening natural ecosystems and the fate marine, and terrestrial) that could lead
The climate crisis has arrived and is of humanity (IPCC 2019). Especially to a catastrophic “hothouse Earth,”
accelerating faster than most scientists worrisome are potential irreversible well beyond the control of humans
expected (figure 2, IPCC 2018). It is climate tipping points and nature’s (Steffen et al. 2018). These climate
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Figure 2. Climatic response time series from 1979 to the present. The rates shown in the panels are the decadal change
rates for the entire ranges of the time series. These rates are in percentage terms, except for the interval variables (d, f, g,
h, i, k), where additive changes are reported instead. For ocean acidity (pH), the percentage rate is based on the change
in hydrogen ion activity, aH+ (where lower pH values represent greater acidity). The annual data are shown using gray
points. The black lines are local regression smooth trend lines. Sources and additional details about each variable are
provided in supplemental file S2, including table S3.
chain reactions could cause significant improve the vital signs summarized O’Neill 2018); therefore, we need bold
disruptions to ecosystems, society, and by our graphs. Economic and popu- and drastic transformations regarding
economies, potentially making large lation growth are among the most economic and population policies. We
areas of Earth uninhabitable. important drivers of increases in CO2 suggest six critical and interrelated
To secure a sustainable future, we emissions from fossil fuel combustion steps (in no particular order) that gov-
must change how we live, in ways that (Pachauri et al. 2014, Bongaarts and ernments, businesses, and the rest of
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humanity can take to lessen the worst We need to quickly curtail habitat population must be stabilized—and,
effects of climate change. These are and biodiversity loss (figure 1f–1g), ideally, gradually reduced—within a
important steps but are not the only protecting the remaining primary and framework that ensures social integrity.
actions needed or possible (Pachauri intact forests, especially those with There are proven and effective policies
et al. 2014, IPCC 2018, 2019). high carbon stores and other forests that strengthen human rights while
with the capacity to rapidly sequester lowering fertility rates and lessening
Energy carbon (proforestation), while increas- the impacts of population growth on
The world must quickly implement ing reforestation and afforestation GHG emissions and biodiversity loss.
massive energy efficiency and conser- where appropriate at enormous scales. These policies make family-planning
vation practices and must replace fos- Although available land may be limit- services available to all people, remove
sil fuels with low-carbon renewables ing in places, up to a third of emissions barriers to their access and achieve
(figure 1h) and other cleaner sources reductions needed by 2030 for the full gender equity, including primary
of energy if safe for people and the Paris agreement (less than 2°C) could and secondary education as a global
environment (figure S2). We should be obtained with these natural climate norm for all, especially girls and young
leave remaining stocks of fossil fuels solutions (Griscom et al. 2017). women (Bongaarts and O’Neill 2018).
in the ground (see the timelines in
IPCC 2018) and should carefully pur- Food Conclusions
sue effective negative emissions using Eating mostly plant-based foods while Mitigating and adapting to climate
technology such as carbon extraction reducing the global consumption of ani- change while honoring the diversity
from the source and capture from mal products (figure 1c–d), especially of humans entails major transforma-
the air and especially by enhancing ruminant livestock (Ripple et al. 2014), tions in the ways our global society
natural systems (see “Nature” section). can improve human health and signifi- functions and interacts with natural
Wealthier countries need to support cantly lower GHG emissions (including ecosystems. We are encouraged by a
poorer nations in transitioning away methane in the “Short-lived pollutants” recent surge of concern. Governmental
from fossil fuels. We must swiftly elim- step). Moreover, this will free up crop- bodies are making climate emergency
inate subsidies for fossil fuels (figure lands for growing much-needed human declarations. Schoolchildren are strik-
1o) and use effective and fair policies plant food instead of livestock feed, ing. Ecocide lawsuits are proceeding
for steadily escalating carbon prices to while releasing some grazing land to in the courts. Grassroots citizen move-
restrain their use. support natural climate solutions (see ments are demanding change, and
“Nature” section). Cropping practices many countries, states and provinces,
Short-lived pollutants such as minimum tillage that increase cities, and businesses are responding.
We need to promptly reduce the emis- soil carbon are vitally important. We As the Alliance of World Scientists,
sions of short-lived climate pollutants, need to drastically reduce the enormous we stand ready to assist decision-mak-
including methane (figure 2b), black amount of food waste around the world. ers in a just transition to a sustainable
carbon (soot), and hydrofluorocar- and equitable future. We urge wide-
bons (HFCs). Doing this could slow Economy spread use of vital signs, which will
climate feedback loops and poten- Excessive extraction of materials and better allow policymakers, the pri-
tially reduce the short-term warming overexploitation of ecosystems, driven vate sector, and the public to under-
trend by more than 50% over the next by economic growth, must be quickly stand the magnitude of this crisis,
few decades while saving millions of curtailed to maintain long-term sus- track progress, and realign priorities
lives and increasing crop yields due to tainability of the biosphere. We need for alleviating climate change. The
reduced air pollution (Shindell et al. a carbon-free economy that explic- good news is that such transforma-
2017). The 2016 Kigali amendment to itly addresses human dependence on tive change, with social and economic
phase down HFCs is welcomed. the biosphere and policies that guide justice for all, promises far greater
economic decisions accordingly. Our human well-being than does business
Nature goals need to shift from GDP growth as usual. We believe that the prospects
We must protect and restore Earth’s and the pursuit of affluence toward will be greatest if decision-makers and
ecosystems. Phytoplankton, coral reefs, sustaining ecosystems and improving all of humanity promptly respond to
forests, savannas, grasslands, wetlands, human well-being by prioritizing basic this warning and declaration of a cli-
peatlands, soils, mangroves, and sea needs and reducing inequality. mate emergency and act to sustain life
grasses contribute greatly to sequestra- on planet Earth, our only home.
tion of atmospheric CO2. Marine and Population
terrestrial plants, animals, and micro- Still increasing by roughly 80 million Contributing reviewers
organisms play significant roles in car- people per year, or more than 200,000 Franz Baumann, Ferdinando Boero,
bon and nutrient cycling and storage. per day (figure 1a–b), the world Doug Boucher, Stephen Briggs, Peter
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Supplemental material
2017. A climate policy pathway for near- and
Supplemental data are available at long-term benefits. Science 356: 493–494.
BIOSCI online. A list of the signatories Steffen W, et al. 2018. Trajectories of the Earth
appears in supplemental file S1. System in the Anthropocene. Proceedings doi:10.1093/biosci/biz088