Further
THE MILITARY BALANCE 2019
DEFENCE ECONOMICS
„„ Southeast Asia
Defence spending stagnated in Southeast Asia, with a
regional decline of 0.6% between 2017 and 2018. This figure is
a reminder that strong economic growth does not necessarily
translate into strong defence-budget growth or high levels of
defence expenditure.
„„ Middle East
Based on available data, defence spending in the Middle East
and North Africa fell by 12% between 2017 and 2018, driven
by cuts in Saudi Arabia’s official budget. Fluctuating exchange
rates also contributed to the overall regional decline. But some
countries are just spending less on defence. In Iraq, total defence
and security spending declined by 10% in nominal terms, from
D22.8 trillion (US$19.5 billion) in 2017 to D20.4trn (US$17.3bn)
in 2018. This can be explained, in part, by the end of the military
campaign against the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL.
„„ China and Russia
The gap between the Russian and Chinese defence budgets
has widened significantly over the past decade. In 2008,
China spent 1.5 times more than Russia on estimated total
military expenditure; in 2017, this gap increased to 2.4, when
measured in real terms.
„„ US spending on European defence
The United States accounts for 70% of total defence spending
by NATO states. However, the IISS estimates that the actual
costs of defending Europe represented 5.6% of the 2018 US
defence budget, or US$35.8bn, with the United States’ military
presence and operating bases in Europe costing an estimated
US$29.1bn in 2018. By contrast, European NATO member
states spent US$264bn altogether in 2018.
LAND WARFARE
„„ US light armour
The United States Army continues to work on options
for providing its light forces with additional armour and
firepower, with development contracts for the Mobile
Protected Firepower (MPF) programme issued to General
Dynamics and BAE Systems. The first of a planned 504
MPF vehicles is expected to be fielded in 2025, and the 82nd
Airborne Division has already reactivated a unit employing
ex-US Marine Corps LAV-25s as an interim measure. The
Joint Light Tactical Vehicle, the long-awaited replacement for
the HMMWV, also began delivery to its first operational unit
in January 2019.
„„ Russian military modernisation
The 150th Motor-rifle Division, based near Rostov, activated its
final motor-rifle regiment in December 2018. This made it the
first of the three divisions formed on the Ukrainian border to
field the planned number of regiments. Russia has also moved
to expand its special-forces and airborne capabilities by adding
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Assessments
independent Spetsnaz units at the army level and to air-mobile
infantry sub-units within existing motor-rifle formations.
The announced plans for armour, artillery and air-defence
equipment deliveries in 2019 continue a trend of modernising
existing platforms. The most notable exception is the S-350
Vityaz air-defence system, which appears to have finally put a
troubled development history behind it; the first regiment set
is expected to be delivered to the air force in 2019.
„„ China’s amphibious forces
The PLA Marine Corps has expanded its overall size, by
converting four former army infantry and coastal-defence
units into new marine brigades, two in each of the Northern
and Eastern theatre commands. The size of the actual
amphibious-assault force available to the PLA Army and
Marine Corps remains largely unchanged, however; the
new marine brigades are not yet equipped or trained for the
amphibious-assault mission.
„„ Israel’s quiet war
The Israeli Army chief admitted that for the last two years Israel
had conducted air and missile attacks against Iranian forces in
Syria. These attacks, which featured extensive use of stand-off
precision munitions, have aimed to reduce Iran’s direct threat
to Israel and weapons transfers to Lebanese Hizbullah.
NAVAL AND MARITIME
„„ China’s carrier development
China’s first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, returned to sea after
a refit and modifications. Indeed, China will soon have two
carriers in service for the first time, with the expectation that
its second carrier – the first indigenously built vessel – would
also commission in 2019 after trials. This will increase the PLA
Navy’s carrier deployment options, albeit still with limited
operational capability, but it will also increase the pressure to
deliver the supporting capabilities, such as naval aviation and
escorts, needed to support the two vessels.
„„ Japan’s F-35B to sea
The Japanese government confirmed its intention to modify the
Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force’s two large Izumo-class vessels
to accommodate the F-35B short take-off and vertical landing
variant of the Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter. Tokyo emphasised
the limited nature of the plan, and that the ships will not be able
to operate as full strike carriers. Nonetheless, integration of the
F-35B will significantly enhance the ships’ operational potential,
including for limited power-projection – or at least independent
operation – beyond the range of land-based aircraft.
„„ LCS heading out
The US Navy is set to resume forward deployment of Littoral
Combat Ships (LCSs) in 2019 after deployment plans for
2018 were shelved because of technical, crewing and training
problems. Getting the LCS programme back on track will be
important for the US Navy’s ability to maintain a forward
presence in regions like the Gulf and the western Pacific.
 THE MILITARY BALANCE 2019
Further Assessments

Principal advanced anti-air-warfare surface combatants and operators, 1998–2018

United States Europe Asia Russia

Denmark 3 Australia 1
2018: 87
France 1 2 1998: 5 2008: 4 2018: 5
China 2 15 Russia’s first platform with modern phased
Germany 3 3 array/VLS area-air-defence capability is the new
frigate Admiral Gorshkov, a system that has had
Italy 1 2 significant development delays. However, for some
India 3
time the Russian Navy has deployed a handful of
2008: 74 Netherlands 4 4
very large surface combatants with high-
Norway 5 5* performance SA-N-6 and SA-N-20 missiles, albeit
Japan 4 5 6 with more limited fire-control and combat systems.
Spain 4 5 These vessels are included here.

1998: 51 United Kingdom 1 6 South Korea 3

Totals 1998: 0 2008: 19 2018: 30 Totals 1998: 4 2008: 7 2018: 28

Selected AAW vessels: estimated available firepower
The US Navy’s Ticonderoga-class cruisers are the oldest Aegis-
equipped platforms, though they have been significantly updated. Their
replacement will be critical for the US Navy. South Korea’s KDD III
Sejong class is the largest Aegis platform so far. China’s Type-052D
destroyers are about to be joined by the Type-055 cruisers, at an
VLS cells associated with advanced
AAW platforms
estimated 10,000–13,000 tonnes with 112 cells. US and Asian
combatants in this class tend to have larger VLS magazines than their
European counterparts (including Australia’s Spanish-designed Hobart US (Ticonderoga/Arleigh Burke class)
class). However, the cells cannot be reloaded at sea, although the US
Navy is looking into this.

US: Ticonderoga class South Korea: KDD III China: Type-052D Australia: Hobart class France: Forbin class
10,000 tonnes FLD 11,000 tonnes FLD 7,500 tonnes FLD 6,300 tonnes FLD 7,050 tonnes FLD
122 VLS cells 80 (+48 ASW/LACM) VLS cells 64 VLS cells 48 VLS cells  48 VLS cells 8,720

864 China
(Type-052C/D)
© IISS
*Helge Ingstad, foundered 8 Nov 2018. Salvage doubtful. FLD: full-load displacement. AAW: the capability to engage airborne threats, including aircraft and missiles. VLS: vertical launch system.

„„ Strategic partnering Kingdom continued to develop its Tempest concept, with

In November 2018, the Royal Navy and the Royal Australian Sweden a potential initial partner.
Navy announced the inauguration of a Type-26 Global Combat „„ Chinese stealth on the front line
Ship user group, following Australia’s choice of the UK Type-26 China’s first low-observable combat aircraft, the Chengdu J-20,
design for its future frigate programme. Canada, which has also appears to have begun deployment with an operational unit,
picked the Type-26 as its preferred future design, may also be a the 9th Brigade in Wuhu, eastern China. Previously, the aircraft
candidate to join, as might New Zealand if it selects the design. has only been seen with test and operational evaluation units.
Such partnering arrangements may be significant for medium The Wuhu-based unit has in the past been associated with the
and smaller powers’ ability to operate and sustain high-end introduction of new types into PLAAF service, including the
maritime platforms and capabilities in the future. Su-27SK and Su-30MKK variants of the Flanker family.
„„ Sukhoi’s slow progress

MILITARY AEROSPACE It is increasingly unlikely that Russia’s Su-57 multi-role

fighter will reach front-line units in any significant number
„„ China’s bomber development until the second half of the next decade. In early 2019 there
China’s replacement for its ageing Xian H-6 medium bomber were Russian reports indicating that a production-batch order
will not enter service before 2025, according to a report by for 13 aircraft will be signed in 2020. At least some, if not all,
the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA). This aircraft, the of these aircraft may be fitted with the Izdeliye-30 engine in
‘H-20’, is thought to be a subsonic low-observable design and development for the production-standard aircraft. Whether
a prototype is likely now being built. The DIA report also the continuing delay to the Su-57 results in an additional
suggested that the PLA Air Force (PLAAF) would again take on order for the Su-35S or Su-30SM remains to be seen.
a nuclear role. Another project, as yet unseen, is under way to „„ NATO ground surveillance
develop a fighter/bomber, possibly intended as a replacement NATO is due this year to deploy its first Alliance Ground
for the Xian JH-7 Flounder and Sukhoi Su-30 Flanker. Surveillance platform at Sigonella in Italy. The original project
„„ European fighter combat dates from 1995, and after more than a decade of political debate
Europe entered 2019 with two rival camps setting out their and platform and architecture switches, a contract was signed
wares for a future crewed combat aircraft. France and in May 2012 covering the purchase of five Northrop Grumman
Germany progressed their Future Combat Air System, with RQ-4D Global Hawk intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance
Spain expected to join later in 2019. Meanwhile, the United uninhabited air vehicles.

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