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yet we are still a long way from being able to predict when they will occur. Recent
quakes in central Italy are another reminder of how suddenly and unexpectedly
they can strike.
It’s not just predicting whether an earthquake will happen that is important, but
where its epicentre will be, and how severe it is likely to be.
Here are just a few of the techniques that geologists use to predict when and how
disaster might strike.
Data mapping
Scientists constantly monitor tremors all over the globe to build up a picture of
earthquakes. (The map below gives a snapshot of earthquakes recorded on May 16
2016 of a magnitude of 2.5 or over.)
This, combined with historical data and the area’s geological make-up, can give
scientists an estimate of where an earthquake is most likely to occur.
Whilst this information is useful, the estimates are a long way off giving us a time
span that is less than years or even decades.
Radon gas
Radon gas is constantly emitted through cracks in the Earth. On certain occasions,
spikes in the emission of radon gas have been observed as an immediate precursor
to an earthquake.
Some scientists remain sceptical that the two are directly correlated, but enough
correlation remains for this to be a continued source of study.
Georges Charpak, the Nobel Prize-winning physicist, spent the last years of his life
developing a radon detector for this very reason.
Early tremors
In 2009, a 6.3-magnitude earthquake hit the town of L’Aquila in Italy. For some
months previously, the area had experienced a series of small- and medium-sized
tremors. Some scientists believed that this was a warning sign that a much bigger
quake was to come. However, others disagreed, and the committee convened in the
town to monitor the tremors reassured residents that no major earthquake was
imminent. Having got their prediction badly wrong, the scientists were convicted
of manslaughter for failing to predict the deadly earthquake (later quashed on
appeal, however).
More recently, researchers in Japan have been monitoring tremors below the ocean
using ocean-bottom seismometers, and think that these tremors may herald a clue
as to when the next big earthquake in Japan may strike.
Around 90% of all natural earthquakes occur underwater, so being able to predict
these would help avoid the devastation seen in the wake of the Boxing Day
tsunami in 2004.
“Our study is one of the first to document animal behaviour before, during and
after an earthquake. Our findings suggest that toads are able to detect pre-seismic
cues such as the release of gases and charged particles, and use these as a form of
earthquake early warning system,” said lead author Dr Rachel Grant.
Precisely what it is that animals sense or fear is not known. Theories suggest that
they feel the earth tremors before we do, or can feel significant changes in the
atmosphere.
Having time to leave a building before the quake arrives could save thousands of
lives.