Definitions

• Water conveyance in a water supply system

depends on the rates of production, delivery,
consumption and leakage
– Defined as a flow Q
– The demand is usually expressed in m3/h, m3/s or l/s

Discharge
flows (Q)

Water Water Water Water

Production Delivery Consumption Leakage

water demand
2
 Q
Qwp
pro
Q
Qdev
wd Q
Qwc
con
Production Delivery Consumption

Q
Qwl
leak
Leakage

3
• Water production (Qwp): is the flow of water
produced in treatment facilities
– It normally has a constant rate that depends on
the purification capacity of the treatment
installation
– The treated water ends up in a clear water
reservoir from where it is supplied to the system

4
• Water delivery (Qwd): is the flow Supplied
directly to the distribution network
– Starts from the clear water reservoir of the
treatment plant or constructed at the beginning of
the distribution network
– In principle, this delivery is equal to the water
production

5
• Water consumption (Qwc): is the quantity directly
utilized by the consumers
– This generates variable flows in the distribution
network caused by many factors:
• users’ needs, climate, source capacity etc.
• Water leakage (Qwl): is the amount of water
physically lost from the system
– The generated flow rate is in this case more or less
constant
– Depends on overall conditions in the system

6
• water demand (Qd):
– In theory, the term water demand coincides with
water consumption
– In practice, the demand is often monitored at supply
points where the measurements include leakage:
𝑄𝑑 = 𝑄𝑤𝑐 + 𝑄𝑤𝑙
– when supply is calculated without having an interim
water storage, i.e. water goes directly to the
distribution network
𝑄𝑤𝑑 = 𝑄𝑑
– Water demand is commonly expressed in m3/d, m3/h,
m3/s or l/s

7
8
• The average demand of the system Qav: the mean value per day
derived from annual demand records Qa
𝑄𝑎
𝑄𝑎𝑣 =
365
• The specific demand q: the average demand Qav divided by the
number of consumers N (unit consumption per capita per day l/c/d)
𝑄𝑎𝑣
𝑞=
𝑁

9
 Specific consumption in Asian cities
10
 Numerous factors influence the demand. To reach
some conclusions, the following should be
known:

Demand category

Local conditions

Demand restrictions

11
 1. Demand category: The demand is affected by a number
of consumption categories:
• domestic, industrial, tourism etc.
2. Local conditions: Water use within the same category
may vary due to:
• different cultures, education, age, climate, religion, technological
process etc.
3. Demand restrictions: The water may be used under
circumstances that restrict the demand:
• scarce source
– quantity/quality
• bad access
– no direct connection, fetching from a distance
• low income of consumers

12
 Demand categories

13
 Domestic and nondomestic consumption in The
Netherlands

14
• Domestic Demand:
– Domestic water consumption is
intended for cooking, drinking,
dishwashing, toilet flushing,
bathing, showering, laundry, car
washing,…. Etc.

15
 Size of
community

Climate Water quality

Influence
Factors on
Water
Consumption

Factors influence Water

population
availability &
domestic water Characteristics
cost
consumption

16
 Bathing
11%
6% Cooking
19% 5%
Washing
45%
WC
14% Dish-washing

Cleaning

percentage domestic water use for

different purposes

17
 Municipality size Demand l/p/d
small towns 60
Villages up to 5000 ca 70
Municipalities >5000-20000 ca 80
Municipalities >20000-50000 ca 100
Cities >50000-100000 ca 125
Cities greater then 100000 ca 150

Water demand in Syria

18
 Non-domestic demand

Institutions tourism Industry Agriculture miscellaneous

Each of these categories has its own specific

water requirements

19
 Institutions

Institutions

Commercial consumption in

other
Restaurants Shops Offices Schools Hospitals
institutions

• Can be assessed as total supply divided by the

number of consumer unit (employees, pupils,
patients, etc.) l/unit/d
20
 Water consumption in institutions

21
 Tourism
• Tourist and recreational activities may also have a
considerable impact on water demand
• The quantities (l/c or unit/d) vary enormously depending
on the type and category of accommodation
– In luxury hotels, for instance, this demand can go up to 600
l/bed/d

Tourist water consumption in Southwest England

22
 Industry
Water consumption in Industry

Process water maintenance water Domestic water

Cleaning of Cooling of Sanitary

Food
Indirect uses Direct uses production hall production tools purposes of
preparation
& tools and machinery workers

Not a part of the component of

final product the final product

Necessary for
production

23
 Influence factors on industrial water
consumption

Process water Maintenance water Domestic water

Raw material Manufacturing

characteristics method
Technology used Cleaning Cooling Sanitation

Type of
Energy Type of
technology
resource cooling circuit
used

24
 Amounts of water needed, depend
on the

Type of industry Technology used

expressed as total supply divided by employee

or number of consumer unit

liters /employee /day liters /unit of product

25
 Industrial water consumption

26
 Agriculture
In peri-urban or developed rural areas, this
demand may also be supplied from the
local distribution system

Water consumption in agriculture is

mainly determined by

Irrigation Livestock needs

27
 The amounts required for irrigation purposes
depend on

stage of plant type of characteristics climatic

plant sort
growth irrigation of soil conditions

28
 Water required for livestock is related to

the type of the stock age of the stock

type of production
animals animals

Intensive, high-technology
Cow, Sheep, Chicken native breeds
units

require more water require less water

29
 Seasonal crop water needs

30
 Animal water consumption

31
 Miscellaneous

All other consumption categories that do not belong

to the above classifications, such as

maintenance of
other specific
fire fighting public purposes water and
uses
sewage system

washing streets,
gardening green cleansing, military facilities,
areas, supply of flushing mains sport complexes
fountains, zoo

32
• In some of these cases the demand is
unpredictable and can be either estimated on
empirical or statistical basis.
– E.g. in case of fire fighting, the water use is not
recorded
• measurements are difficult because it is not known in
advance when and where the water will be needed
• these consumers do not contribute substantially
in overall demand
– Very often they are neither metered nor accounted
for and thus classified as UFW
33
 Unaccounted-For Water
• Unaccounted-For Water (UFW):
– An unavoidable component of water demand
– the water that is supplied “free of charge”
– In quite a lot of transport and distribution systems
in developing countries this is the most significant
“consumer” of water
• accounting sometimes for over 50% of the total water
delivery

34
 Italy France Denmark Germany

35
 𝑄𝑤𝑑 − 𝑄𝑤𝑐
𝑈𝑓𝑊% = ∙ 100%
𝑄𝑤𝑑
Where:
Qwd: The quantity of water supplied in the network and
observed in main meters (water delivery)
Qwc: Water quantity recorded or observed in household
meters (water consumption)

36
 – Causes of UFW differ from case to case
• Physical losses: are related to the water that is supplied but
hasn't reached the taps, and is not registered or paid for
– Most often it is a leakage that appears due to improper
maintenance of the network
• Nonphysical losses: are related to the water that is supplied
and has reached the taps, but is not registered or paid for
– under-reading of water meters
– illegal connections
– washing streets
– flushing pipes, etc.

37
• Problem 3.1
– A water supply company has delivered an annual
quantity of 80,000,000 m3/a to a city of 1.2 million
inhabitants.
– Find out:
1. The gross specific demand (with water leakage and non
domestic consumption) in the distribution area l/c/d
2. The specific domestic consumption (per capita per day)
with:
– leakage from the system estimated at 15% of the total supply
– billed non-domestic consumption of 20,000,000 m3/a

38
 Water demand patterns
• Each demand category can be considered not
only with its average quantities, but also with
respect to a "time-table“ when the water is being
used
• Demand variations are commonly described by
the “peak factors”.
– peak factors (Pf): ratios between consumption at a
certain moment and Qt the average consumption for
the observed period Qav,t (hour, day, week, year, etc.)
𝑄𝑡
𝑃𝑓 =
𝑄𝑎𝑣,𝑡

39
• The length of the period is important
– Human activities have a cyclic character within different
periods of time
– The same applies in water use
– The average water quantities indicated in the previous
paragraph are just indications of total requirements
• Equally relevant for the design are consumption
extremes which appear during one day, week, or year.
• Combination of these, maximum and minimum peak
demands, defines the range of flows to be delivered

40
• the demand patterns can be:
– Instantaneous demand
– daily (diurnal) pattern
– Weekly pattern
– yearly pattern

41
• Instantaneous demand:
– is caused by a small number of consumers during
a short period of time
• A few seconds or minutes
– Assessing this sort of demand is the starting point
in building-up the demand pattern of any
distribution area
– the instantaneous demand is directly relevant for
network design in house installations

42
 Example of domestic unit water consumption

43
• Daily Demand Diagrams:
– Demand for water normally changes throughout
the day and night
– Daily demand variations can be shown on a
diurnal demand curve
• Plots the percentage of daily demand versus time
• expressed in terms of the peaking factor as a function
of the 24-hr day

45
 Hourly peak factors (diurnal demand curve)

46
 – The daily diagrams are important for design of the
distribution systems
– The patterns are usually registered by monitoring
flows:
• at delivery points
• some points in the system
– booster pumping stations, reservoirs or control points with
measuring equipment

47
• few examples of the daily
diagrams for different
demand categories are
given in the following
figures
– The graphs show large Urban demand pattern

variations in the domestic

type of water use
– the industrial consumption
is more evenly spread over
24 hours

48 Industrial demand pattern

Commercial/institutional demand pattern Tourist demand pattern

49
 URBAN DEMAND PATTERN IN
DAMASCUS
Series1
7
6
5

%QD,MAX
4
3
2
1
0
24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
HOUR

50
• Commonly, the structure
of the demand pattern in
urban areas looks as
shown in the figure
– the domestic category will
have the most visible
variation of consumption
throughout the day
– Industry and institutions
will usually work in daily
shifts
– the remaining categories,
including leakage, are
practically constant

51
• A flat consumption curve reflects in general
one (or combination) of the following
conclusions:
a) large distribution area
b) high industrial demand
c) high leakage level

52
• Periodic Variations:
– Peak factors from the daily demand diagrams are
derived on the basis of average consumption
during 24 hours
– This average is subject to two additional cycles:
• Weekly
• annual

53
• Weekly Variations:
– is influenced by the average consumptions on:
• working and non-working days
• national and religious holidays
• sport events, etc.
– Consumption in urban areas of West Europe is
normally smaller during weekends
• The people rest and increased consumption may appear at
tourist sites only
– In Islamic countries for instance, the weekend (on
Friday) is traditional day for praying and water
consumption usually increases in that case.

54
55
• Seasonal variations:
– Annual variations in water use are predominantly
linked to the change of seasons
– The unit consumption per capita normally grows
during hot seasons
– the increase in total demand may also result from
a temporarily increased number of consumers
• which is typical for holiday resorts

56
 Weekly and monthly peak factor diagrams

57
 Seasonal demand variation in a sea resort

58
 1.4

1.2 1.16
1.11 1.11
1.05 1.05
1 1
1 0.95 0.95
0.9 0.9
0.85
0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Des

59
 Seasonal Demand Variations

60
• Problem 3.2
– In a residential area of 10,000 inhabitants, the
specific water demand is estimated at q=100 l/c/d
(leakage included), the water meter in the area
registered the maximum flow of Qd,max=15 l/s
– What would be the peak factor on a day?

61
 Water demand calculation
• Knowing the daily patterns and periodical
variations, the demand flow can be calculated
from the following formula:
𝑄𝑤𝑐,𝑎𝑣 ∙ 𝑃𝑓0
𝑄𝑡 =
𝑓𝑐
Qt: Water demand of a certain area at a certain moment
Qwc,av: Average water consumption in the area
Pf0: Overall peak factor

62
 𝑛∙𝑐∙𝑞
𝑄𝑤𝑐,𝑎𝑣 =
𝑓𝑐
n: number of inhabitants in the distribution area
q: specific consumption (l/p/d)
fc: unit conversion factor
C: coverage of the area between 0 and 1
It can happen that:
– some of the inhabitants are not connected to the system
– some parts of the area are not inhabited

63
 – Or:
𝑄𝑤𝑐,𝑎𝑣 = 𝑑 ∙ 𝐴 ∙ 𝑐 ∙ 𝑞
d: the population density (number of inhabitants per unit
surface area)
A: the surface area of the distribution area

64
 – Pfo the overall peak factor is a combination of
the peak factor values from the daily, weekly and
annual diagrams:
𝑃𝑓0 = 𝑃𝑓ℎ × 𝑃𝑓𝑑 × 𝑃𝑓𝑚
– the daily and monthly peak factors may
integrated into one (seasonal) peak factor Pfs:
𝑃𝑓𝑠 = 𝑃𝑓𝑑 × 𝑃𝑓𝑚

65
 – Qd,av :
• Represents the absolute average consumption per day (m3/d)
• Pfh=1, Pfs=1;
• usually obtained from annual demand records
𝑛∙𝑐∙𝑞
𝑄𝑑,𝑎𝑣 =
𝑓𝑐
– Qd,max, Qh,av :
• Represents the average demand during the maximum
consumption day (m3/d)
• Pfh=1, Pfs=max;
𝑄𝑑,𝑎𝑣 ∙𝑃𝑓𝑠 𝑄𝑑,𝑚𝑎𝑥
𝑄𝑑,𝑚𝑎𝑥 (𝑚3 Τ𝑑) = , 𝑄ℎ,𝑎𝑣 (𝑚3 Τℎ) =
𝑓𝑐 24
• relevant as parameters for the design of tanks and reservoirs

66
 – Qh,max :
• Is the demand at the maximum consumption hour on the
maximum consumption day, (m3/h, m3/s or l/s)
• Pfh=max, Pfs=max;
𝑄𝑑,𝑎𝑣 ∙ 𝑃𝑓𝑠,𝑚𝑎𝑥 ∙ 𝑃𝑓ℎ,𝑚𝑎𝑥
𝑄ℎ,𝑚𝑎𝑥 =
𝑓𝑐
• relevant as parameters for the design of pipes and pumps
– Qh,min:
• Is the demand at the minimum consumption hour on the
minimum consumption day, (m3/h, m3/s or l/s)
• Pfh=min, Pfs=min
• relevant as parameters for the design of pumps

67
• Problem 3.3
– A city of 20000 inhabitants, 25% of the inhabitants
are not connected to the system, q=150 l/p/d,
Pfs,max=1.8, Pfh,max=2.0
– Determine: Qd,max, Qh,max

68
• Problem 3.4
– A water supply company delivered an annual quantity
of 10,000,000 m3/a, assuming an average leakage of
20%
– On the maximum consumption day, the registered
delivery was as follows (Qwd=34914 m3/d):
Hour 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
m3 989 945 902 727 844 1164 1571 1600
Hour 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
m3 1775 1964 2066 2110 1600 1309 1091 945
Hour 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
m3 1062 1455 1745 2139 2110 2037 1746 1018

69
 – Determine:
1. The gross maximum seasonal peak factor Pfs,max
2. The gross Pfh,max, Pfh,min for the area,
3. diurnal consumption peak factor Pfh,max
• Hint: the gross Pf includes leakage

70
 DEMAND FORECASTING
• Water demand usually grows unpredictably as it
depends on many parameters that have their
own unpredictable trends
– population growth, still the major factor in an increase
in water demand
– The population and demand growth match reasonably
well
• Several methods are used to estimate the
population in some future year
– it should be pointed out that judgment must be
exercised by the engineer as to which method is most
applicable
71
• Arithmetic (linear) method:
– This method is based on the hypothesis that the
population growth is constant.
– The population in the future is then estimated from
the equation:
𝑃𝑡 = 𝑃0 + 𝑎 ∙ 𝑡
Where:
Pt: the population at some time in the future
P0: the present population
a: the population growth per period (persons)
t: number of growth periods of the projection

72
• Geometric (exponential) method:
– The population in the future is estimated from the
equation:
𝑡
𝑅
𝑃𝑡 = 𝑃0 1 +
100
Where:
Pt: the population at some time in the future
P0: the present population
R% : probable percentage rate of population increase per growth
period
t: number of growth periods of the projection

73
• PROBLEM 3.5
– In a residential area of 250,000 inhabitants, the
specific water demand is estimated at 150 l/c/d,
which includes leakage
– Calculate:
• the demand in 20 years’ time if the assumed annual
population growth is 2.5%
• Compare the results by applying the linear and
exponential models

74
• Problem 3.6
– An apartment building of 76 occupants paid for
annual water consumption of 4770 m3/a
– Determine:
1. Specific consumption per capita per day
2. The peak factor, during the maximum consumption
flow of 5.5 m3 /h

75
• Problem 3.7
– A residential area of 1,200 inhabitants was supplied
with annual water quantity of 63.800 m3/a including
estimated leakage of 10 %. During the same period,
the maximum flow registered by the district flow
meter was 25.4 m3/h.
– Determine:
1. Specific consumption per capita per day (l/c/d)
2. The maximum instantaneous peak factor Pfh,max
Notes:
1) Specific consumption should not include leakage
2) Peak factors should include leakage

76
• Problem 3.8
– A water supply company delivered annual quantity of
15,000,000 m3/a to distribution area of 100,000
consumers. At the same time, the collected revenue is
6,000,000 US $, at average water tariff of 0.5 US $/m3
– Determine:
1. The delivery on average consumption day Qwd (m3/d)
2. Percentage of the unaccounted-for water
3. Specific consumption per capita per day q (l/p/d), assuming 60%
of the total delivery to be for domestic use
– Note:
• Express the unaccounted-for water as percentage of the delivered
water

77
• Problem 3.9
– Determine the production capacity of treatment
installation (m3/d) for a city of 1,250,000
populations
– Assume:
• The specific consumption per capita of q=150 l/d
• Non-domestic water use of 30,000,000 m3/a
• Leakage of l=12 % of Qwp

78
• Problem 3.10
– A residential area A=195000 m2, the present
population density is p=350 ca/ha with an annual
growth rate of R=2.4%
– the future water consumption is q=150 l/ca/d
– Pfs,max=1.6, Pfh,max=2.2
– Determine: Qd,max (m3/d), Qh,max (l/s) after 25 years

79