THEORY OF DECISIONS

PHASE 1 - RECOGNIZE AND ANALYZE THE PROBLEM RAISED IN AN

INDIVIDUAL WAY

YELQUIS ANTONIO UCROS QUINTERO

84.081.049

GRUPO: 212066

RICARDO JAVIER PINEDA

(TUTOR)

UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL ABIERTA Y A DISTANCIA UNAD

INGENIERIA DE INDUSTRIAL
(2019)
 INTRODUCTION

Decision-making is seen in all kinds of situations, which lead us to erroneous or successful paths,
when we have or have the necessary tools to support us, we are going with certainty to the best
decision, that is why it is better to take our time, using the right tools to reach the best decisión.
Activities to develop

Next, you will find 3 exercises that make up the pre-task to develop individually.

Exercise 1. Probabilities of a given event:

To develop the tasks it is necessary to consult the bibliographical references:

Sharma, J. (2016). Operations Research : Theory and Applications. (pp. 347-360), New
Delhi: Laxmi Publications Pvt Ltd, v. Sixth edition. Available in the knowledge
environment of the course.

In a bag there are 10 balls numbered from 11 to 20, some red and others green.

Consider, then, a sample space that has 10 elements:

E = {11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20}

With the above data, answer:

a) We take out without looking at a ball, what is the probability of getting a prime number?

b) It is known that the probability of taking the green ball is 3/5. ¿How many balls are there
in each color?
When all elementary events have the same probability of occurring, the probability of any event
A is defined as the ratio between the number of favorable cases and the number of possible cases.
This is Laplace's Law

𝑵𝒐. 𝒅𝒆 𝒄𝒂𝒔𝒐𝒔 𝒇𝒂𝒗𝒐𝒓𝒂𝒃𝒍𝒆𝒔

𝑷(𝑨) =
𝑵𝒐. 𝒅𝒆 𝒄𝒂𝒔𝒐𝒔 𝒑𝒐𝒔𝒊𝒃𝒍𝒆𝒔

Consider, then, a sample space that haIn a bag there are 10 balls numbered from 11 to 20, some
red and others greens 10 elements:

E = {11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20}

With the above data, answer:

a) We take out without looking at a ball, what is the probability of getting a prime
number?

We begin by calculating the number of favorable cases and the number of possible cases.

Number of favorable cases = number of cousins = 4 are the prime numbers within the
possible outcomes (The numbers 11, 13, 17 and 19 are cousins)

Number of possible cases = 10 (All numbers from 11 to 20)

The probability of drawing a prime number between the 10 balls is 4/10 which simplified is
2/5.

Solution: P (prime number) = 2/5

b) It is known that the probability of taking the green ball is 3/5. ¿How many balls are
there in each color?
It tells us that the probability of going green is 3/5.

The number of possible cases, that is, the number of balls that can come out, remains 10.

The number of favorable cases, that is, the number of green balls (our event) is one of the
things we want to calculate.

We know that 3/5 is equivalent to 6/10. Therefore, if we apply Laplace's Law:

 𝑵𝒐. 𝒅𝒆 𝒄𝒂𝒔𝒐𝒔 𝒇𝒂𝒗𝒐𝒓𝒂𝒃𝒍𝒆𝒔 𝟔
𝑷(𝒔𝒂𝒄𝒂𝒓 𝒍𝒂 𝒃𝒐𝒍𝒂 𝒗𝒆𝒓𝒅𝒆) = =
𝑵𝒐. 𝒅𝒆 𝒄𝒂𝒔𝒐𝒔 𝒑𝒐𝒔𝒊𝒃𝒍𝒆𝒔 𝟏𝟎

We know that 3/5 is equivalent to 6/10. Therefore, if we apply Laplace's Law:

In total there are 6 green balls in the bag. which indicates that the rest, 4, are red balls.

Solution: there are 6 green balls and 4 red balls

Exercise 2. Graphic solution of equations:

Using the algebraic graphical method, determine the cut-off point and solution that satisfies the
following systems of equations:

1. Y = -4X + 6
2. Y = -2X + 1
For values of 1 and 0 of the variable x in each of the equations. That is, replacing in each
equation first if x takes value of 1 and if it takes the value of zero to graph its lines.

1. 𝑌 = −4(0) + 6 1. 𝑌 = −4(1) + 6

= −4(0) + 6 = −4(1) + 6

= (0) + 6 = −4 + 6

=6 =2
 2.) Y = -2X + 1

2. ) 𝑌 = 2(0) + 1 2.) = −2(1) + 1

𝑌 = (0) + 1 𝑌 = −2 + 1

𝑌= 1 𝑌 = −1

−4X + 6 = −2X + 1

−4𝑋 + 6 − 6 = −2𝑋 + 1 − 6

−4𝑋 = −2𝑋 − 5

−4𝑋 + 2𝑋 = −2𝑋 − 5 + 2𝑋

−2𝑋 = −5

−2𝑥 −5
=
−2 −2
5
2
−4X + 6 = −2X + 1

−4X + 6 −2X + 1

5 5
−4(2) + 6 −2 ∗ 2 = 5
5
2∗
2

5∗4
2

20
= 10
2

−10 + 6
= −4

−2X + 1

5
−2 ∗ =5
2

5∗2
=5
2
−5 + 1
= −4