REPORT Pernikahan Jawa

Crystal Ball Report - Full

Simulation started on 4/1/2019 at 1:43 PM
Simulation stopped on 4/1/2019 at 1:47 PM

Run preferences:
Number of trials run 100,000
Monte Carlo
Random seed
Precision control on
Confidence level 98.00%

Run statistics:
Total running time (sec) 235.21
Trials/second (average) 425
Random numbers per sec 11,479

Crystal Ball data:

Assumptions 27
Correlations 0
Correlation matrices 0
Decision variables 27
Forecasts 1

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Forecasts

Worksheet: [Wedding Jawa.xlsx]Jawa

Forecast: Total Biaya Pernikahan Adat Jawa Cell: F57

Summary:
Certainty level is 85.000%
Certainty range is from -∞ to 179,756,078
Entire range is from 149,431,584 to 198,448,018
Base case is 171,350,000
After 100,000 trials, the std. error of the mean is 18,930

Statistics: Forecast values

Trials 100,000
Base Case 171,350,000
Mean 173,530,889
Median 173,501,703
Mode ---
Standard Deviation 5,986,143
Variance 35,833,911,307,679
Skewness 0.0080
Kurtosis 2.96
Coeff. of Variation 0.0345
Minimum 149,431,584
Maximum 198,448,018
Range Width 49,016,434
Mean Std. Error 18,930

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Forecast: Total Biaya Pernikahan Adat Jawa (cont'd) Cell: F57

Percentiles: Forecast values

0% 149,431,584
10% 165,871,546
20% 168,474,834
30% 170,376,614
40% 171,975,847
50% 173,501,619
60% 175,045,402
70% 176,680,887
80% 178,587,834
90% 181,259,632
100% 198,448,018

End of Forecasts

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Assumptions

Worksheet: [Wedding Jawa.xlsx]Jawa

Assumption: Baju Nikah Cell: D55

Uniform distribution with parameters:

Minimum 4.00
Maximum 5.00

Assumption: Catering Cell: D52

Normal distribution with parameters:

Mean 500.00
Std. Dev. 50.00

Assumption: Dawet Cell: D24

Uniform distribution with parameters:

Minimum 0.90
Maximum 1.10

Assumption: Entertainment Cell: D49

Uniform distribution with parameters:

Minimum 0.90
Maximum 1.10

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Assumption: EO Cell: D48

Uniform distribution with parameters:

Minimum 0.90
Maximum 1.10

Assumption: Fotografi Cell: D53

Uniform distribution with parameters:

Minimum 0.90
Maximum 1.10

Assumption: Hotel Cell: D51

Uniform distribution with parameters:

Minimum 2.00
Maximum 4.00

Assumption: Jawaban besan Cell: D7

Uniform distribution with parameters:

Minimum 2.00
Maximum 3.00

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Assumption: Kembar Mayang Cell: D21

Uniform distribution with parameters:

Minimum 0.90
Maximum 1.10

Assumption: KUA Cell: D17

Uniform distribution with parameters:

Minimum 2.00
Maximum 3.00

Assumption: Lamaran Cell: D9

Uniform distribution with parameters:

Minimum 4.00
Maximum 6.00

Assumption: Lepas Lajang Cell: D27

Uniform distribution with parameters:

Minimum 0.90
Maximum 1.10

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Assumption: Mahar Cell: D12

Uniform distribution with parameters:

Minimum 0.90
Maximum 1.10

Assumption: Mobil pengantin Cell: D50

Uniform distribution with parameters:

Minimum 0.90
Maximum 1.10

Assumption: Panitia Cell: D16

Uniform distribution with parameters:

Minimum 9.00
Maximum 11.00

Assumption: Penghulu Cell: D33

Uniform distribution with parameters:

Minimum 0.90
Maximum 1.10

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Assumption: Pertemuan Cell: D8

Normal distribution with parameters:

Mean 6.00
Std. Dev. 0.60

Assumption: Pre-Wed Cell: D54

Uniform distribution with parameters:

Minimum 0.90
Maximum 1.10

Assumption: Room Cell: D47

Uniform distribution with parameters:

Minimum 0.90
Maximum 1.10

Assumption: Siraman Cell: D23

Uniform distribution with parameters:

Minimum 0.90
Maximum 1.10

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Assumption: Slametan Cell: D29

Uniform distribution with parameters:

Minimum 0.90
Maximum 1.10

Assumption: Souvenir Cell: D56

Normal distribution with parameters:

Mean 250.00
Std. Dev. 25.00

Assumption: Tenda & Janur Cell: D20

Uniform distribution with parameters:

Minimum 0.90
Maximum 1.10

Assumption: Tumpeng Cell: D25

Uniform distribution with parameters:

Minimum 0.90
Maximum 1.10

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Assumption: Tuwuhan Cell: D22

Uniform distribution with parameters:

Minimum 0.90
Maximum 1.10

Assumption: Undangan Cell: D15

Normal distribution with parameters:

Mean 250.00
Std. Dev. 25.00

Assumption: Utusan Cell: D6

Uniform distribution with parameters:

Minimum 2.00
Maximum 4.00

End of Assumptions

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Decision Variables

Worksheet: [Wedding Jawa.xlsx]Jawa

Decision Variable: Catering Cell: E52

Variable bounds:
Lower 80,000
Upper 120,000

Variable type: Continuous

Decision Variable: E20 Cell: E20

Variable bounds:
Lower 450,000
Upper 550,000

Variable type: Continuous

Decision Variable: E21 Cell: E21

Variable bounds:
Lower 450,000
Upper 550,000

Variable type: Continuous

Decision Variable: E22 Cell: E22

Variable bounds:
Lower 450,000
Upper 550,000

Variable type: Continuous

Decision Variable: E23 Cell: E23

Variable bounds:
Lower 90,000
Upper 110,000

Variable type: Continuous

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Decision Variable: E24 Cell: E24

Variable bounds:
Lower 180,000
Upper 220,000

Variable type: Continuous

Decision Variable: E25 Cell: E25

Variable bounds:
Lower 270,000
Upper 330,000

Variable type: Continuous

Decision Variable: E27 Cell: E27

Variable bounds:
Lower 45,000
Upper 55,000

Variable type: Continuous

Decision Variable: E29 Cell: E29

Variable bounds:
Lower 450,000
Upper 550,000

Variable type: Continuous

Decision Variable: E33 Cell: E33

Variable bounds:
Lower 225,000
Upper 275,000

Variable type: Continuous

Decision Variable: E48 Cell: E48

Variable bounds:
Lower 6,750,000
Upper 8,250,000

Variable type: Continuous

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Decision Variable: E49 Cell: E49

Variable bounds:
Lower 4,500,000
Upper 5,500,000

Variable type: Continuous

Decision Variable: E50 Cell: E50

Variable bounds:
Lower 450,000
Upper 550,000

Variable type: Continuous

Decision Variable: E51 Cell: E51

Variable bounds:
Lower 800,000
Upper 1,200,000

Variable type: Continuous

Decision Variable: E53 Cell: E53

Variable bounds:
Lower 6,750,000
Upper 8,250,000

Variable type: Continuous

Decision Variable: E54 Cell: E54

Variable bounds:
Lower 8,000,000
Upper 12,000,000

Variable type: Continuous

Decision Variable: E55 Cell: E55

Variable bounds:
Lower 900,000
Upper 1,100,000

Variable type: Continuous

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Decision Variable: E56 Cell: E56

Variable bounds:
Lower 4,000
Upper 6,000

Variable type: Continuous

Decision Variable: Jenggolan atau Jonggolan · 2 Cell: E17

Variable bounds:
Lower 50,000
Upper 150,000

Variable type: Continuous

Decision Variable: Kumbakarnan · 2 Cell: E16

Variable bounds:
Lower 450,000
Upper 550,000

Variable type: Continuous

Decision Variable: Mahar Cell: E12

Variable bounds:
Lower 40,000,000
Upper 60,000,000

Variable type: Continuous

Decision Variable: Price · 2 Cell: E6

Variable bounds:
Lower 225,000
Upper 275,000

Variable type: Continuous

Decision Variable: Price · 3 Cell: E7

Variable bounds:
Lower 225,000
Upper 275,000

Variable type: Continuous

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Decision Variable: Price · 4 Cell: E8

Variable bounds:
Lower 225,000
Upper 275,000

Variable type: Continuous

Decision Variable: Price · 5 Cell: E9

Variable bounds:
Lower 225,000
Upper 275,000

Variable type: Continuous

Decision Variable: Room Cell: E47

Variable bounds:
Lower 15,000,000
Upper 25,000,000

Variable type: Continuous

Decision Variable: Sedhahan · 2 Cell: E15

Variable bounds:
Lower 7,000
Upper 9,000

Variable type: Continuous

End of Decision Variables

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Trend Charts

End of Trend Charts

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Sensitivity Charts

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End of Sensitivity Charts

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Scatter Charts

Scatter Chart: Scatter Chart 1

End of Scatter Charts

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