Final Report Ppic Kelvin DKK

FINAL REPORT
12/14/2017 PROJECT ASSIGNMENT
Subject : Production Planning and Inventory Control (PPIC)
Lecturer : Anastasia Lidya Maukar, S.T., M.Sc., M.MT.
Created by,
1. Chrisshyaren (004201500004)
2. Kelvin (004201500015)
3. Rivi Sofia Ayu (004201500027)
4. Tantyo Edo Wicaksana (004201500033)
5. Lyu Guoqiang (004201500041)
PRESIDENT UNIVERSITY
INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING BATCH 2015
Jababeka Education Park, Ki Hajar Dewantara Street, Kota Jababeka,
West Cikarang, Bekasi 17550 – Indonesia
Phone (021) 8910 9762-6 - Fax (021) 8910 9768 - Email:
enrollment@president.ac.id - http://www.president.ac.id
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
The Authors would like to express deepest gratitude to the Almighty God because
gives authors a lot of mercy and blessing which make authors can finish this report
as well.
Authors realized without the other helped, this report cannot be finished well. In
this occasion, authors would like to say thanks for some people who already
supported authors to complete this report.
 Mrs. Anastasia Lidya Maukar, S.T., M.Sc., M.MT, as a lecture of
production planning and inventory control, the one who already guided
authors kindly so authors could to make this report.
 Authors’ family which already give author support that make authors can
make this report completely.
 Authors’ friends that cannot authors said the name one by one. The friends
which already support and help authors to do this report.
Authors recognized that this report still far away from perfect. Therefore, with all
humility, authors would like to say apologizes for any mistakes in this report.
Authors hope that the readers can give a good criticism and suggestion which can
make this report better than before. Hopefully this report can help the readers to
learn and know more about the forecasting, aggregate planning, capacity planning,
MRP and CRP.
Cikarang, 14 December 2017
Authors
i
TABLE OF CONTENTS
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ....................................................................................... i
TABLE OF CONTENTS ........................................................................................ ii
REPORT I ............................................................................................................ 1.1
REPORT II ........................................................................................................... 2.1
REPORT III ......................................................................................................... 3.1
REPORT IV ......................................................................................................... 4.1
REPORT V .......................................................................................................... 5.1
ii
TABLE OF CONTENTS
CHAPTER I ......................................................................................................... 1.3
INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................... 1.3
1.1 Background ........................................................................................... 1.3
1.2 Objectives .............................................................................................. 1.3
1.3 Tools and Equipment(s) ........................................................................ 1.4
1.4 Steps ........................................................................................................... 1.4
CHAPTER II ........................................................................................................ 1.5
LITERATURE STUDY ....................................................................................... 1.5
2.1 Principles of Forecasting ............................................................................ 1.5
2.2 Category of Forecasting ............................................................................. 1.5
2.3 Types of Forecasting Methods ................................................................... 1.7
2.3.1 Qualitative Forecasting Methods ............................................................ 1.7
2.3.2 Quantitative forecasting methods ............................................................ 1.7
2.3.2.1 Extrinsic Methods (Causal Approach) ................................................. 1.8
2.3.2.1.1 Simple Linear Regression ................................................................. 1.8
2.3.2.1.2 Multiple Linear Regressions ............................................................. 1.8
2.3.2.2 Intrinsic Methods (Time Series Approach) .......................................... 1.9
2.3.2.2.1 Last Period Demand (LPD) ............................................................. 1.10
2.3.2.2.2 Arithmetic Average (Average Methods) ......................................... 1.10
2.3.2.2.3 Single Moving Average (SMA) ...................................................... 1.10
2.3.2.2.5 Double Moving Average (DMA) .................................................... 1.11
2.3.2.2.6 Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) ............................................. 1.12
2.3.2.2.7 Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) – Browns Method ............. 1.12
2.3.2.2.8 Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) – Holt Method .................. 1.13
2.3.2.2.8 Triple Exponential Smoothing (TES) – Winter Method ................. 1.13
2.3.2.2.9 Regression Analysis ........................................................................ 1.13
2.4 Measurement of Forecasting Error........................................................... 1.14
2.4.1 Mean Squared Error (MSE) .................................................................. 1.14
2.4.2 Standard Error of Estimate (SEE) ......................................................... 1.15
2.4.3 Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) ........................................... 1.15
2.4.4 Mean Error (ME)................................................................................... 1.15
1.1
2.4.5 Mean Absolute Error (MAE) = Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)...... 1.16
2.5 Validation of Forecasting Model ............................................................. 1.16
2.5.1 Verification Test.................................................................................... 1.16
2.5.2 Tracking Signal Test ............................................................................. 1.17
CHAPTER III .................................................................................................... 1.18
DATA COLLECTION....................................................................................... 1.18
CHAPTER IV .................................................................................................... 1.19
DATA ANALYSIS ............................................................................................ 1.19
4.1. Scatter Diagram for Demand .................................................................. 1.19
4.2. Forecasting Six Month Demand (Sept 2017 – Feb 2018) using Several
Methods .......................................................................................................... 1.20
4.2.1. Last Period Demand (LPD) ................................................................. 1.20
4.2.2. Arithmetic Average (Average Methods) .............................................. 1.28
4.2.3. Single Moving Average (SMA) ........................................................... 1.37
4.2.4. Weighted Moving Average (WMA) .................................................... 1.47
4.2.5. Double Moving Average (DMA) ......................................................... 1.57
4.2.6. Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) .................................................. 1.68
4.2.7. Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) – Brown Method.................... 1.79
4.2.8. Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) – Holt Method ....................... 1.95
4.2.9. Cyclic Method .................................................................................... 1.104
4.2.10. Linear Cyclic Method ...................................................................... 1.114
4.2.11. Linear Constant Method................................................................... 1.123
4.3. Best Method based on Calculation........................................................ 1.131
CHAPTER V.................................................................................................... 1.140
CONCLUSION ................................................................................................ 1.140
REFERENCE ................................................................................................... 1.141
1.2
CHAPTER I
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background
Demand management has two activities, which are order service and forecasting.
Forecasting is the prediction, projection, or estimation of the occurrences of
uncertain future events or level of activity. In other words, forecasting is most often
used to predicting or estimating the future demand. Forecasting methods consist of
two major groups which are qualitative methods and quantitative methods.
The purpose from this production planning and inventory control assignment is to
forecast the demand in the future. The data come from the demand of Product X
over the last 20 months. The forecast data will provide the information to make the
better decision. In this assignment, the data will be forecast six-month demand from
September 2017 until February 2018. There are several forecasting methods to
forecast the data which are Last Period Demand (LPD), Arithmetic Average
(Average Methods), Moving Average consist of Single Moving Average (SMA),
Weighted Moving Average (WMA), Double Moving Average (DMA), Exponential
Smoothing consist of Single Exponential Smoothing (SES), Double Exponential
Smoothing (DES) with Brown methods and Holt methods and the last is Triple
Exponential Smoothing (TES).
This report will record all of the forecasting data from several method. Then, the
data will be analyzed and the conclusion can be taken to determine the best method
to predict the future data. The best method of forecasting is the more accurate
method.
1.2 Objectives
The objectives in this report are:
1. To determine of each forecasting demand.

2. To evaluate every forecasting method.
3. To analyze the trend of data.
1.3
4. To determine the scatter diagram for the demand data.
5. To validate of each forecasting method.
6. To analyze the forecasting method and give the appropriate analysis based on
calculation.
1.3 Tools and Equipment(s)

The tools and equipment that were used for this assignment are:
1. Microsoft excel is used for the calculation

2. Mini tab is used for the chart / diagram creation and data analysis
3. Papers
4. Laptop
5. Printer
1.4 Steps
There are several steps to determine the data, which are:
1. Draw the scatter diagram for the demand data over the last twenty months.
2. Determine the several forecasting methods to forecast six-month demand
which is from 2017, September until 2018, February.
3. Evaluate the methods in point using MAD, MSE, and MAPE.
4. Do the validation of each forecasting method using IIDN and verification
and tracking signal.
5. Analyze which one the best method.
6. The result was analyzed.
1.4
CHAPTER II
LITERATURE STUDY
Forecasting is the art and science of future events. This can be done by bringing
past data and placing it future to the form of a mathematical model. Forecasting is
the preliminary stage of decreased maturity growth.
According to Subagyo (2002), Forecasting is a forecast that has not happened yet.
In social science everything is uncertain, difficult to estimate precisely, therefore
used forecasting that aims for forecast or forecasting made can minimize the
influence of this uncertainty on the company.
2.1 Principles of Forecasting

Many types of forecasting models that differ in complexity and amount of data &
way they generate forecasts:
1. Forecasts are rarely perfect

Forecast only decrease uncertainty but do not eliminate it.
2. Forecasts are more accurate for grouped data than for individual items.
If one particular product is foreseen as a whole, the forecasting error
presentation tends to be less than the error forecasting presentation of
individual products.
3. Forecast are more accurate for shorter than longer time periods.
In the short term, conditions affecting demand tend to remain or change
slowly, so short-term forecasting is more accurate.
2.2 Category of Forecasting

Forecasting is usually classified based on the future time horizons it covers. Horizon
time is divided into several categories namely:
1.5
1. Short-term forecasting: this forecast covers a period of up to 1 year.
Example: to plan a purchase
2. Forecasting of cigarettes: generally includes a count of up to 3 years.

Example: to get sales.
3. Long-term forecasting: general for the planning period of 3 years or more.

Example: for new results.
Medium and long term forecasting can be distinguished from short-term forecasting
by looking at three things:
1. Mid-term and long-term forecasting deals with more comprehensive

issues and supports management decisions related to product, plant and
process planning. For example, decisions on factory facilities such as
opening a factory or a new building.
2. Short-term forecasting usually applies a different methodology than long-

term forecasting.
3. Short-term forecasting tends to be more precise than long-term

forecasting. Factors that affect changes in demand change every day.
Thus, as the time horizon increases, the accuracy of a person's prediction tends to
decrease. Sales forecasting should be updated regularly to maintain value and
integrity. Forecasting should always be reviewed and revised at the end of each
sales period.
The function of this review of future vision is to assist decision-makers in choosing

alternative those are the direction of their decisions, and then to look at the
consequences of those decisions in the future.
One of the data sources that can be used for forecasting is the production record /
time series of the agency concerned.
1.6
2.3 Types of Forecasting Methods
Forecasting methods can be classified into two
groups: qualitative and quantitative.
2.3.1 Qualitative Forecasting Methods

Forecast is made subjectively by the forecaster. Qualitative forecasting
methods, often called judgmental methods, are methods in which the
forecast is made subjectively by the forecaster. They are educated guesses
by forecasters or experts based on intuition, knowledge, and experience.
When you decide, based on your intuition, that a particular team is going to
win a baseball game, you are making a qualitative forecast. Because
qualitative methods are made by people, they are often biased.
2.3.2 Quantitative forecasting methods

Quantitative methods: These types of forecasting methods are based on
mathematical (quantitative) models, and are objective in nature. They rely
heavily on mathematical computations.
Table 2.1 shows these two categories and their characteristics.
Table 2.1 Types of Forecasting Methods
1.7
2.3.2.1 Extrinsic Methods (Causal Approach)
Extrinsic methods also use internal or external factors that associated with
demand for the item, possibly in a causal relationship.
2.3.2.1.1 Simple Linear Regression

Simple linear regression is a statistical method that allows us to
summarize and study relationship between two continuous
(quantitative) variables.
One variable, denoted x, is regarded as the predictor, explanatory, or

independent variable. The other variable, denoted y, is regarded as
the response, outcome, or dependent variable.
Y = b0 + b1 x (2-1)
Where, Y is the dependent variable and x is the independent

variable.
2.3.2.1.2 Multiple Linear Regressions

Multiple regression analysis is used to see if there is a statistically
significant relationship between sets of variables. It’s used to find
trends in those sets of data.
Multiple regression analysis is almost the same as simple linear

regression. The only difference between simple linear regression and
multiple regression is in the number of predictors (“x” variables)
used in the regression.
Simple regression analysis uses a single x variable for each

dependent “y” variable. For example: (x1, y1).
Y = b0 + b1 x1+…+b1.xk (2-2)
Multiple regressions use multiple “x” variables for each independent

variable: (x1)1, (x2)1, (x3)1, y1).
1.8
2.3.2.2 Intrinsic Methods (Time Series Approach)
Time series analysis is related with the statistical analysis of past data to
forecast the future data. Time series are measured at specified intervals of
time. Time analysis series consist of:
1. Trends
There will be two types of trends which are positive trends and negative
trends. Trends are related with long-term persistent
movements/tendencies/changes in the data. It can be positive changes
(increases of the data) and the negative changes (decreases of the data).
2. Seasonal Component
Seasonal component are patterns of high and low demand that recur each
year. They may due weather, holiday such as Christmas and Easter, school
starting dates. Example product with seasonal patterns is ice cream, snow
tires, air conditioner, toys, text books and etc.
3. Cycles
Cycles is a periodic movement alternating between peak and valleys have
long been a subject of study by business economist. Cycles usually last
several years and so are normally not included in short term forecasting
models but do play a role in long-range forecasting.
4. Irregular Variations
Irregular Variations may be episodic or random. Episodic Variations are
attributable to nonrecurring causes such as a fire at a competitor’s plant, a
strike at a plant of a major customer, or a special promotion. Random
Variations, on the other hand, may be the result of many small factors, and
no single major cause can be assigned.
1.9
2.3.2.2.1 Last Period Demand (LPD)
The last period demand technique simply forecasts for the next period the
actual demand that occurred in the previous period.
dt’ = dt-1 (2-3)
Where, dt’ is the forecasted demand for period t and dt-1 is the actual demand
in the previous period (period t-1).
2.3.2.2.2 Arithmetic Average (Average Methods)

The arithmetic average or called average methods simply take the average
of all past demand in arriving at a forecast.
𝑑 +𝑑 +⋯+𝑑 ∑𝑛
𝑡= 𝑑𝑡
dt’ = = (2-4)
Where, dt’ is the number of forecasted demand for period t, dt is actual

demand in period t and n is the number of time periods.
2.3.2.2.3 Single Moving Average (SMA)

The moving average technique generates the next period’s forecast by
averaging the actual demand for the last N time periods. Response to change
will be slow if the N is large for stable demand. The response to change will
be fast if the N is small for the demand subject frequent significant change.
𝑑𝑡− +𝑑𝑡− +⋯+𝑑𝑡− ∑𝑛

𝑖= 𝑑𝑡−𝑖
SMA (N) = dt’ = = (2-5)
Where, − 𝑖 is actual demand in period t-i and N is the number of time

periods include in moving average.
1.10
2.3.2.2.4 Weighted Moving Average (WMA)
A moving average is one of the most popular tools used by active traders to
measure momentum. The primary difference between the simple moving
average and the weighted moving average is the formula used to create
them.
𝑡− 𝑑𝑡− + 𝑡− 𝑑𝑡− +⋯+ 𝑡− 𝑑𝑡− ∑𝑛 𝑡−𝑖 𝑑𝑡−𝑖

WMA (N) = dt’ = ∑
= 𝑖=
(2-6)
∑
Where, C is the weight.
2.3.2.2.5 Double Moving Average (DMA)

In this method, the calculation of moving averages as much as two times
then followed by predicting using a certain equation.
For the double moving average, the procedure is:
1. Calculate the Single Moving Average from the data set and
denoted as St’
2. Calculate the second moving average namely moving
average from St’ and denoted as St”
3. Calculate the component (at) with the formula in the
following,
′ ′
= + + " = ′− " (2-7)
4. Calculate component of trend (bt) with the formula in the
following,
′
= −
+ − " (2-8)
5. Forecasting for period m in the future (dt’) after t is :

+ = + . (2-9)
1.11
2.3.2.2.6 Single Exponential Smoothing (SES)
This method is suitable for forecasting data with no trend or seasonal
pattern. The formula of single exponential smoothing is:
′
= . 𝑡− + − . 𝑡− ′ (2-10)
Where, the is the coefficient of smoothing = 0< <1. Initiation is needed

′ ′
for the first price or and . Initiation for usually chosen from one
of the step in the following,
′
1. Use price
2. Use the average price of 4 to 5 first data
Relationship between and N is = +

(2-11)
2.3.2.2.7 Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) – Browns Method

Double Exponential Smoothing is an improvement of Simple Exponential
Smoothing, also known as Exponential Moving Average, which does the
exponential filter process twice.
For the double exponential smoothing – Browns Method, the procedure is:
1. Create the first Exponential Smoothing,

′
= . 𝑡 + − . 𝑡− (2-12)
2. Create the second Exponential Smoothing,
"= . 𝑡 + − . 𝑡− " (2-13)
3. Calculate the component (at)

′
= − " (2-14)
4. Calculate the component (bt)
𝑎 ′
= + − " (2-15)
−𝑎
5. Forecasting for period m in the future, like in the formula 2-9.
1.12
2.3.2.2.8 Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) – Holt Method
For the double exponential smoothing – Holt Method, the procedure is:
1. Create the first Smoothing,

′
= . 𝑡 + − . 𝑡− + 𝑡− ) (2-16)
2. Create the smoothing for trend,
= 𝑡 − 𝑡− + − . 𝑡− (2-17)
3. Forecasting for period m in the future,
𝑡+ = 𝑡 + 𝑡 (2-18)
2.3.2.2.8 Triple Exponential Smoothing (TES) – Winter Method

Triple Exponential Smoothing method is used when the data indicates a
trend and seasonal behavior.
𝑋𝑡
= 𝐼𝑡−𝐿
+ − 𝑡− + 𝑡− (2-19)
= 𝑡 − 𝑡− + − 𝑡− (2-20)
𝑋𝑡
𝐼𝑡 = + (1- 𝐼𝑡− (2-21)
𝑡
𝑡+ = 𝑡 + 𝑡 * 𝐼𝑡− + (2-22)
is the coefficient random factors (0< <1), is the coefficient trend factors
(0< <1), is the coefficient seasonal factors (0< <1).
2.3.2.2.9 Regression Analysis

Regression analysis is a set of statistical processes for estimating the
relationships among variables. It includes many techniques for modeling
and analyzing several variables, when the focus is on the relationship
between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables (or
'predictors').
The formula for regression analysis constant in the following:
1.13
∑𝑛
𝑡= 𝑑𝑡
′= (2-23)
The formula for regression analysis linear in the following:
′
= + (2-24)
∑𝑛 𝑛 𝑛
𝑡= 𝑡.𝑑𝑡−∑𝑡= 𝑑𝑡 ∑𝑡= 𝑡
= 𝑛 𝑛
∑𝑡= 𝑡 − ∑𝑡= 𝑡
(2-25)
∑𝑛
𝑡= 𝑑𝑡 ∑𝑛
𝑡= 𝑡
= –b (2-26)
The formula for regression analysis cyclic in the following:
′ 𝜋 𝜋
𝑡 = + cos + sin (2-27)
𝜋 𝜋
∑𝑡= 𝑡 = . + ∑𝑡= cos + ∑𝑡= sin (2-28)
𝜋 𝜋 𝜋
∑𝑡= 𝑡 cos = ∑𝑡= cos + ∑𝑡= cos +
𝜋 𝜋
∑𝑡= sin cos (2-29)
𝜋 𝜋 𝜋 𝜋
∑𝑡= 𝑡 sin = ∑𝑡= sin + ∑𝑡= cos sin +
𝜋
∑𝑡= sin (2-30)
The total amount of time period in 1 cycle is denoted N and n is the amount
of time period.
2.4 Measurement of Forecasting Error

Measurement of forecasting error used for test the performance of forecasting
result. Sometimes there is an error in the forecast and it can cause biased. The
measurement of forecasting method in the following:
2.4.1 Mean Squared Error (MSE)

Mean Squared Error, (MSD) is measures the average of the squares of the
errors or deviations. The formula of MSE is:
1.14
∑𝑛 ′
𝑡= (𝑑𝑡 −𝑑𝑡 )
= (2-31)
′
Where 𝑡 is an actual demand for period t. is the forecasted demand at
period t and n is number of months.
2.4.2 Standard Error of Estimate (SEE)

Standard Error of Estimate is a measurement of the accuracy of predictions.
The formula of SEE is:
∑𝑛
𝑡= 𝑑𝑡 −𝑑𝑡
′
=√ (2-32)
−𝑓
Where, f is degree of freedom (constant = 1, Linier = 2, Cyclical Quadratic

= 3, Cyclical Linier = 4).
2.4.3 Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)

Mean Absolute Percent Error is a measure of prediction accuracy for a
forecasting method and expresses the answer as a percentage. The formulas
of MAPE are:
𝑑𝑡 −𝑑𝑡 ′
𝑃 𝑡 = × % (2-33)
𝑑𝑡
∑𝑛
𝑡= |𝑃 𝑡 |
𝐴𝑃 = (2-34)
Where, PEt is the percentage of error during period t.
2.4.4 Mean Error (ME)

The formula of Mean Error is:
∑𝑛
𝑖= 𝑑𝑡 −𝑑𝑡
′
= (2-35)
1.15
The result of Mean Error (ME) may be negative, so be careful to interpret
it.
2.4.5 Mean Absolute Error (MAE) = Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)

The formula of Mean Absolute Error or Mean Absolute Deviation is:
∑𝑛 ′
𝑖= |𝑑𝑡 −𝑑𝑡 |
𝐴 / 𝐴 = (2-36)
2.5 Validation of Forecasting Model

Validation of forecasting model has two test namely verification test and tracking
signal test.
2.5.1 Verification Test

The verification test is using for the out of control data. The following
techniques are designed to be used with the smallest amount of data. This
test is dividing the control chart into six section with the same scale. The
data is located in out of control, if:
 There is an UCL or LCL on the outside point.

 From three consecutive points, there is two or more point in
A area.
 From five consecutive points, there is four or more point in
B area.
 There are eight consecutive points one of them.
Formula for verification test is shown in below:
∑𝑛
̅= 𝑡= 𝑡
(2-37)
−
′ ′
𝑡 =| − − 𝑡− − 𝑡− | (2-38)
= + . ̅̅̅̅̅ (2-39)
= − . ̅̅̅̅̅ (2-40)
1.16
Region A is an area outside ± 2/3 (2.66 MR) = ± 1.77 MR (above +1.77 MR
and below -1.77 MR). Area B is an area outside ± 1/3 (2.66 MR) = ± 0.89
MR (above +0.89 MR and below -0.89 MR). Region C is the area above or
below the midline.
2.5.2 Tracking Signal Test

A tracking signal indicates if the forecast is consistently biased high or low.
It is computed by dividing the cumulative error by MAD.
The formula of tracking signal-brown check in the following:

′
= ∑𝑖= 𝑡 − 𝑡 (2-41)
∑𝑛 (𝑑𝑡 −𝑑𝑡 ′ )
Tracking Signal= 𝐴
= ∑𝑖=
𝑛 ′ (2-42)
𝑖= |𝑑𝑡−𝑑𝑡 |
𝑛
The formula of tracking signal-trigg in the following:
𝑑𝑡−𝑑𝑡 ′ 𝑑𝑡−𝑑𝑡 ′
Tracking Signal= 𝐴
=∑𝑛 ′ (2-43)
𝑖= |𝑑𝑡 −𝑑𝑡 |
𝑛
1.17
CHAPTER III
DATA COLLECTION
Tabel 3.1. below shows the demand data over the last 20 months of Product X.
Table 3.1. Demand of Product X
Month Demand (in Month Demand (in

units) units)
Jan 2016 1,620 Nov 2016 1,648
Feb 2016 1,674 Dec 2016 1,540
Mar 2016 1,708 Jan 2017 1,784
Apr 2016 1,782 Feb 2017 1,688
May 2016 1,623 Mar 2017 1,766
June 2016 980 Apr 2017 1,876
July 2016 1,322 May 2017 1,906
Aug 2016 1,567 June 2017 1,136
Sept 2016 1,434 July 2017 1,560
Oct 2016 1,609 Aug 2017 1,715
1.18
CHAPTER IV
DATA ANALYSIS
4.1. Scatter Diagram for Demand

From the scatterplot below, it shows seasonal component. It could be seen from
high and low demand that occured in several months. From month Jan 2016 – May
2016, the trend is significantly positive. Significantly, the demand go down on May
– June 2016. After that, the trend is going up until May 2017. The trend going
negative same happened on May – June 2017. After that, the trend is going up. So,
in conclusion, the scatterplot follows the seasonal pattern.
Figure 4.1. Scatterplot of Demand vs Month
1.19
Figure 4.2. Scatterplot of Demand vs Month with Connect Line
4.2. Forecasting Six Month Demand (Sept 2017 – Feb 2018) using Several
Methods
4.2.1. Last Period Demand (LPD)
Last Period Demand is a technique that forecast for the period the actual demand
that occurred in the previous period.
4.2.1.1. Forecast of Six Month Demand (Sept 2017 – Feb 2018)

′
In Last Period Demand (LPD) method, to determine the forecast ( using the
formula based on previous chapter. Example, to forecast on February, 2016 are
following in below:
′
, = − = = 1620
The LPD calculation for six month demand from September 2017 until February
2018 are shown in the figure 4.3. Based on the figure, the forecast demand for
September 2017 until February 2018 is 1715. The value are same because the data
are constant.
1.20
Table 4.1 Last Period Forecast Demand
Month Demand (dt) Forecast Demand

(In Units) (dt') (In Units)
January-16 1620
February-16 1674 1620
March-16 1708 1674
April-16 1782 1708
May-16 1623 1782
June-16 980 1623
July-16 1322 980
August-16 1567 1322
September-16 1434 1567
October-16 1609 1434
November-16 1648 1609
December-16 1540 1648
January-17 1784 1540
February-17 1688 1784
March-17 1766 1688
April-17 1876 1766
May-17 1906 1876
June-17 1136 1906
July-17 1560 1136
August-17 1715 1560
September-17 1715
October-17 1715
November-17 1715
December-17 1715
January-18 1715
February-18 1715
1.21
4.2.1.2. Evaluation of MAD, MSE, MAPE
Table 4.2 Evaluation of MAD, MSE AND MAPE
dt-dt' |dt-dt'| (dt-dt')^2 PEt |PEt|
54 54 2916 3.23% 3.23%

34 34 1156 1.99% 1.99%
74 74 5476 4.15% 4.15%
-159 159 25281 -9.80% 9.80%
-643 643 413449 - 65.61%
65.61%
342 342 116964 25.87% 25.87%
245 245 60025 15.63% 15.63%
-133 133 17689 -9.27% 9.27%
175 175 30625 10.88% 10.88%
39 39 1521 2.37% 2.37%
-108 108 11664 -7.01% 7.01%
244 244 59536 13.68% 13.68%
-96 96 9216 -5.69% 5.69%
78 78 6084 4.42% 4.42%
110 110 12100 5.86% 5.86%
30 30 900 1.57% 1.57%
-770 770 592900 - 67.78%
67.78%
424 424 179776 27.18% 27.18%
155 155 24025 9.04% 9.04%
SUM TOTAL
95 3913 1571303 291.03%
AVERAGE
205.9474 82700.16 15.32%
MAD MSE MAPE
There are three error measurement that are used to evaluate the forecasting method.
First error measurement is MAD. To find the value of MAD, the total value of |dt-
dt’| should be found out and calculate the average of it.
∑𝑡= | ′
− |
𝐴 = = = ,
1.22
Second error measurement is MSE. To find the value of MSE, the total value of (dt-
dt’)2 should be found out and calculate the average of it.
∑𝑡= ′
−
= = = ,
Third error measurement is MAPE. To find the value of MAPE, the total value of
|PEt| should be found out and calculate the average of it.
− ′
|𝑃 |= × %= × %= , %
∑𝑡= |𝑃 | , %
𝐴𝑃 = = = , %
4.2.1.3. Validation
After determining the value of MAD, MSE, and MAPE, next step, do validation
towards the forecasting method. There two kinds of validation, such as verification
and tracking signal, in this case using tracking signal – brown.
 Verification
In order to show the control chart, there are several calculation. First, calculate the
value of (dt'-dt)-(d(t-1)'-d(t-1)) as a value of MRt. After that, find out the value of
MR using formula as belows.
∑𝑡=
= = ,
−
Find the lower and upper limit of control chart using formula as belows.
= , × , = ,
=− , × , =− ,
After the value of MRt, UCL, LCL, and CL are known, now plot the data in line
graph like in the figure.
1.23
Table 4.3 MR and Control Limit Calculation
dt'-dt d(t-1)'-d(t-1) (dt'-dt)-(d(t-1)'-d(t-1)) |(dt'-dt)-(d(t-1)'-d(t-1))|
-54
-34 -54 20 20
-74 -34 -40 40
159 -74 233 233
643 159 484 484
-342 643 -985 985
-245 -342 97 97
133 -245 378 378
-175 133 -308 308
-39 -175 136 136
108 -39 147 147
-244 108 -352 352
96 -244 340 340
-78 96 -174 174
-110 -78 -32 32
-30 -110 80 80
770 -30 800 800
-424 770 -1194 1194
-155 -424 269 269
MR 337.1666667
UCL 896.8633333
LCL -896.8633333
MRt UCL 2/3 UCL 1/3 UCL LCL 2/3 1/3 LCL CL
LCL
20 896.8633 597.9089 298.9544 -896.8633333 - - 0
597.909 298.9544444
40 896.8633 597.9089 298.9544 -896.8633333 - - 0
597.909 298.9544444
233 896.8633 597.9089 298.9544 -896.8633333 - - 0
597.909 298.9544444
484 896.8633 597.9089 298.9544 -896.8633333 - - 0
597.909 298.9544444
1.24
Table 4.4 MR and Control Limit Calculation (Continued)
985 896.8633 597.9089 298.9544 -896.8633333 - - 0

597.909 298.9544444
97 896.8633 597.9089 298.9544 -896.8633333 - - 0
597.909 298.9544444
378 896.8633 597.9089 298.9544 -896.8633333 - - 0
597.909 298.9544444
308 896.8633 597.9089 298.9544 -896.8633333 - - 0
597.909 298.9544444
136 896.8633 597.9089 298.9544 -896.8633333 - - 0
597.909 298.9544444
147 896.8633 597.9089 298.9544 -896.8633333 - - 0
597.909 298.9544444
352 896.8633 597.9089 298.9544 -896.8633333 - - 0
597.909 298.9544444
340 896.8633 597.9089 298.9544 -896.8633333 - - 0
597.909 298.9544444
174 896.8633 597.9089 298.9544 -896.8633333 - - 0
597.909 298.9544444
32 896.8633 597.9089 298.9544 -896.8633333 - - 0
597.909 298.9544444
80 896.8633 597.9089 298.9544 -896.8633333 - - 0
597.909 298.9544444
800 896.8633 597.9089 298.9544 -896.8633333 - - 0
597.909 298.9544444
1194 896.8633 597.9089 298.9544 -896.8633333 - - 0
597.909 298.9544444
269 896.8633 597.9089 298.9544 -896.8633333 - - 0
597.909 298.9544444
LPD Verification Test

1500
1000
500
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
-500
-1000
-1500
MRt UCL 2/3 UCL 1/3 UCL

LCL 2/3 LCL 1/3 LCL CL
Figure 4.3 LPD Verification Test
1.25
From the figure above, it showed that the graph is out of control. So it is mean that this method is not good enough for predicting future
demand.
 Tracking Signal Brown Check
Other method to validate the method is by using the tracking signal brown check. To find out the value of tracking signal, there are
several values should be found out first. The calculation could be seen in the table below. To find out the value of MAD, using previous
one. The tracking signal could be found by using formula as belows.
∑𝑡= ′
−
𝑖 𝑖 = = = =
𝐴 𝐴
After the value of tracking signal in sample data already known, determine the control limit. The common control limit values is UCL
= 4, LCL = -4, and CL = 0. Plot the data using the line graph, the result is shown in the figure.
Table 4.5 Tracking Signal - Brown Calculation
Period dt dt' dt-dt' RSFE |dt-dt'| Cum |dt-dt'| MAD Tracking UCL CL LCL
Cumulative Signal
1 1674 1620 54 54 54 54 54 1 4 0 -4
2 1708 1674 34 88 34 88 44 2 4 0 -4
3 1782 1708 74 162 74 162 54 3 4 0 -4
4 1623 1782 -159 3 159 321 80.25 0.037383178 4 0 -4
5 980 1623 -643 -640 643 964 192.8 -3.319502075 4 0 -4
6 1322 980 342 -298 342 1306 217.6667 -1.36906585 4 0 -4
1.26
Table 4.5 Tracking Signal - Brown Calculation (Continued)
7 1567 1322 245 -53 245 1551 221.5714 -0.239200516 4 0 -4

8 1434 1567 -133 -186 133 1684 210.5 -0.883610451 4 0 -4
9 1609 1434 175 -11 175 1859 206.5556 -0.053254438 4 0 -4
10 1648 1609 39 28 39 1898 189.8 0.147523709 4 0 -4
11 1540 1648 -108 -80 108 2006 182.3636 -0.438683948 4 0 -4
12 1784 1540 244 164 244 2250 187.5 0.874666667 4 0 -4
13 1688 1784 -96 68 96 2346 180.4615 0.376811594 4 0 -4
14 1766 1688 78 146 78 2424 173.1429 0.843234323 4 0 -4
15 1876 1766 110 256 110 2534 168.9333 1.515390687 4 0 -4
16 1906 1876 30 286 30 2564 160.25 1.784711388 4 0 -4
17 1136 1906 -770 -484 770 3334 196.1176 -2.467906419 4 0 -4
18 1560 1136 424 -60 424 3758 208.7778 -0.287386908 4 0 -4
19 1715 1560 155 95 155 3913 205.9474 0.461282903 4 0 -4
1.27
LPD Tracking Signal - Brown Check
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
-2
-3
-4
-5
Tracking Signal UCL CL LCL
Figure 4.4 LPD Tracking Signal using Brown Method
From the figure above, it showed that the graph is in of control. So it is mean that
this method pass the tracking signal test and can be used for production plan.
4.2.2. Arithmetic Average (Average Methods)

Arithmetic average method is using for the average of all past demand in arriving
at a forecast.
Based on figure 4.10, to determine the forecast demand in March 2016 it means
using two data before. The calculation are shown in below:
′
+
= =
To determine the forecast demand in April 2016, it means using three data before,
the formula is become;
′
+ +
= = .
The forecast demand for September 2017 until February 2018 is 1596.90. The value
are same because the data are constant. The data will be constant after calculate the
average actual demand each month before the period.
1.28
Table 4.6 Arithmatic Average Forecast Demand
Month Demand (dt) Forecast Demand

(In Units) (dt') (In Units)
January-16 1620
February-16 1674
March-16 1708 1647.00
April-16 1782 1667.33
May-16 1623 1696.00
June-16 980 1681.40
July-16 1322 1564.50
August-16 1567 1529.86
September-16 1434 1534.50
October-16 1609 1523.33
November-16 1648 1531.90
December-16 1540 1542.45
January-17 1784 1542.25
February-17 1688 1560.85
March-17 1766 1569.93
April-17 1876 1583.00
May-17 1906 1601.31
June-17 1136 1619.24
July-17 1560 1592.39
August-17 1715 1590.68
September-17 1596.90
October-17 1596.90
November-17 1596.90
December-17 1596.90
January-18 1596.90
February-18 1596.90
∑𝑡= | ′
− | ,
𝐴 = = = ,
1.29
∑𝑡= ′
− ,
= = = ,
− ′
|𝑃 |= × %= × %= , %
∑𝑡= |𝑃 | , %
𝐴𝑃 = = = , %
Table 4.7 Evaluation of MAD, MSE, and MAPE
61.00 61 3721.00 3.57% 3.57%

114.67 114.6667 13148.44 6.43% 6.43%
-73.00 73 5329.00 -4.50% 4.50%
-701.40 701.4 491961.96 - 71.57%
71.57%
-242.50 242.5 58806.25 - 18.34%
18.34%
37.14 37.14286 1379.59 2.37% 2.37%
-100.50 100.5 10100.25 -7.01% 7.01%
85.67 85.66667 7338.78 5.32% 5.32%
116.10 116.1 13479.21 7.04% 7.04%
-2.45 2.454545 6.02 -0.16% 0.16%
241.75 241.75 58443.06 13.55% 13.55%
127.15 127.1538 16168.10 7.53% 7.53%
196.07 196.0714 38444.01 11.10% 11.10%
293.00 293 85849.00 15.62% 15.62%
304.69 304.6875 92834.47 15.99% 15.99%
-483.24 483.2353 233516.35 - 42.54%
42.54%
-32.39 32.38889 1049.04 -2.08% 2.08%
124.32 124.3158 15454.42 7.25% 7.25%
1.30
Table 4.7 Evaluation of MAD, MSE, and MAPE (Continued)
SUM TOTAL
66.08 3337.033 1147028.95 241.98%
AVERAGE
185.3907 63723.83 13.44%
MAD MSE MAPE
4.2.2.3. Validation
 Verification
∑𝑡=
= = ,
−
= , × , = ,
=− , × , =− ,
graph like in the figure
1.31
-61.00
-114.67 -61.00 -53.67 53.67
73.00 -114.67 187.67 187.67
701.40 73.00 628.40 628.40
242.50 701.40 -458.90 458.90
-37.14 242.50 -279.64 279.64
100.50 -37.14 137.64 137.64
-85.67 100.50 -186.17 186.17
-116.10 -85.67 -30.43 30.43
2.45 -116.10 118.55 118.55
-241.75 2.45 -244.20 244.20
-127.15 -241.75 114.60 114.60
-196.07 -127.15 -68.92 68.92
-293.00 -196.07 -96.93 96.93
-304.69 -293.00 -11.69 11.69
483.24 -304.69 787.92 787.92
32.39 483.24 -450.85 450.85
-124.32 32.39 -156.70 156.70
1.32
MR 236.05
UCL 627.8979795
LCL -627.8979795
MRt UCL 2/3 UCL 1/3 UCL LCL 2/3 LCL 1/3 LCL CL
53.67 627.898 418.5987 209.2993 -627.8979795 - -209.2993265 0

418.598653
187.67 627.898 418.5987 209.2993 -627.8979795 - -209.2993265 0
418.598653
628.40 627.898 418.5987 209.2993 -627.8979795 - -209.2993265 0
418.598653
458.90 627.898 418.5987 209.2993 -627.8979795 - -209.2993265 0
418.598653
279.64 627.898 418.5987 209.2993 -627.8979795 - -209.2993265 0
418.598653
137.64 627.898 418.5987 209.2993 -627.8979795 - -209.2993265 0
418.598653
186.17 627.898 418.5987 209.2993 -627.8979795 - -209.2993265 0
418.598653
30.43 627.898 418.5987 209.2993 -627.8979795 - -209.2993265 0
418.598653
118.55 627.898 418.5987 209.2993 -627.8979795 - -209.2993265 0
418.598653
244.20 627.898 418.5987 209.2993 -627.8979795 - -209.2993265 0
418.598653
1.33
114.60 627.898 418.5987 209.2993 -627.8979795 - -209.2993265 0

418.598653
68.92 627.898 418.5987 209.2993 -627.8979795 - -209.2993265 0
418.598653
96.93 627.898 418.5987 209.2993 -627.8979795 - -209.2993265 0
418.598653
11.69 627.898 418.5987 209.2993 -627.8979795 - -209.2993265 0
418.598653
787.92 627.898 418.5987 209.2993 -627.8979795 - -209.2993265 0
418.598653
450.85 627.898 418.5987 209.2993 -627.8979795 - -209.2993265 0
418.598653
156.70 627.898 418.5987 209.2993 -627.8979795 - -209.2993265 0
418.598653
1.34
Arithmetic Average Verification Test
1000.00
800.00
600.00
400.00
200.00
0.00
-200.00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
-400.00
-600.00
-800.00

Figure 4.5. Arithmetic Average Verification Test
From the figure above, it showed that the graph is out of control. So it is mean that
this method is not good enough for predicting future demand.
Other method to validate the method is by using the tracking signal brown check.
To find out the value of tracking signal, there are several values should be found
out first. The calculation could be seen in the table below. To find out the value of
MAD, using previous one. The tracking signal could be found by using formula as
belows.
∑𝑡= ′
−
𝑖 𝑖 = = = =
𝐴 𝐴
After the value of tracking signal in sample data already known, determine the
control limit. The common control limit values is UCL = 4, LCL = -4, and CL =
0. Plot the data using the line graph, the result is shown in the figure.
1.35
Table 4.10. Verfication Test Calculation
Cumulative Signal
1 1708 1647.00 61.00 61 61.00 61 61 1.00 4 0 -4
2 1782 1667.33 114.67 175.67 114.67 175.67 87.83333 2.00 4 0 -4
3 1623 1696.00 -73.00 102.67 73.00 248.67 82.88889 1.24 4 0 -4
4 980 1681.40 -701.40 -598.73 701.40 950.07 237.5167 -2.52 4 0 -4
5 1322 1564.50 -242.50 -841.23 242.50 1192.57 238.5133 -3.53 4 0 -4
6 1567 1529.86 37.14 -804.09 37.14 1229.71 204.9516 -3.92 4 0 -4
7 1434 1534.50 -100.50 -904.59 100.50 1330.21 190.0299 -4.76 4 0 -4
8 1609 1523.33 85.67 -818.92 85.67 1415.88 176.9845 -4.63 4 0 -4
9 1648 1531.90 116.10 -702.82 116.10 1531.98 170.2196 -4.13 4 0 -4
10 1540 1542.45 -2.45 -705.28 2.45 1534.43 153.4431 -4.60 4 0 -4
11 1784 1542.25 241.75 -463.53 241.75 1776.18 161.471 -2.87 4 0 -4
12 1688 1560.85 127.15 -336.37 127.15 1903.33 158.6112 -2.12 4 0 -4
13 1766 1569.93 196.07 -140.30 196.07 2099.41 161.4928 -0.87 4 0 -4
14 1876 1583.00 293.00 152.70 293.00 2392.41 170.8861 0.89 4 0 -4
15 1906 1601.31 304.69 457.38 304.69 2697.09 179.8062 2.54 4 0 -4
16 1136 1619.24 -483.24 -25.85 483.24 3180.33 198.7706 -0.13 4 0 -4
17 1560 1592.39 -32.39 -58.24 32.39 3212.72 188.9834 -0.31 4 0 -4
18 1715 1590.68 124.32 66.08 124.32 3337.03 185.3907 0.36 4 0 -4
1.36
Arithmetic Average Tracking Signal - Brown Check
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
-1.00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
-2.00
-3.00
-4.00
-5.00
-6.00
Figure 4.6. Arithmetic Average Tracking Signal – Brown Check
4.2.3. Single Moving Average (SMA)

The moving average technique generates the next period’s forecast by averaging
the actual demand for the last N time periods.
Here, there are different kinds of number of time period included in moving average
(N), such as three, five, and seven. The smallest error will be chosen to be validated.
To find the value of forecasting demand as belows for N =3, so it is mean that
average of three demand before. If N = 5 , so it is mean that average of five demand
before, and so on.
′
+ +
= = ,
1.37
Table 4.11. SMA Forecast Demand
Month Demand (dt) Forecast Demand Absolute Forecast Demand Absolute Forecast Demand Absolute
(In Units) (dt') (In Units) Deviation (dt') (In Units) Deviation (dt') (In Units) Deviation
N=3 N=3 N=5 N=5 N =7 N=7
January-16 1620.00
February-16 1674.00
March-16 1708.00
April-16 1782.00 1667.33 114.67
May-16 1623.00 1721.33 98.33
June-16 980.00 1704.33 724.33 1681.40 701.4
July-16 1322.00 1461.67 139.67 1553.40 231.4
August-16 1567.00 1308.33 258.67 1483.00 84 1529.86 37.143
September-16 1434.00 1289.67 144.33 1454.80 20.8 1522.29 88.286
October-16 1609.00 1441.00 168.00 1385.20 223.8 1488.00 121.000
November-16 1648.00 1536.67 111.33 1382.40 265.6 1473.86 174.143
December-16 1540.00 1563.67 23.67 1516.00 24 1454.71 85.286
January-17 1784.00 1599.00 185.00 1559.60 224.4 1442.86 341.143
February-17 1688.00 1657.33 30.67 1603.00 85 1557.71 130.286
March-17 1766.00 1670.67 95.33 1653.80 112.2 1610.00 156.000
April-17 1876.00 1746.00 130.00 1685.20 190.8 1638.43 237.571
May-17 1906.00 1776.67 129.33 1730.80 175.2 1701.57 204.429
June-17 1136.00 1849.33 713.33 1804.00 668 1744.00 608.000
July-17 1560.00 1639.33 79.33 1674.40 114.4 1670.86 110.857
August-17 1715.00 1534.00 181.00 1648.80 66.2 1673.71 41.286
1.38
Table 4.11. SMA Forecast Demand (Continued)
September-17 1470.33 1638.60 1663.86

October-17 1470.33 1638.60 1663.86
November-17 1470.33 1638.60 1663.86
December-17 1470.33 1638.60 1663.86
January-18 1470.33 1638.60 1663.86
February-18 1470.33 1638.60 1663.86
There are three error measurement that are used to evaluate the forecasting method. First error measurement is MAD. To find the value
of MAD, the total value of |dt-dt’| should be found out and calculate the average of it. Here are example of N = 3.
∑𝑡= | ′
− |
𝐴 = = = ,
Second error measurement is MSE. To find the value of MSE, the total value of (dt-dt’)2 should be found out and calculate the average
of it.
∑𝑡= ′
− ,
= = = ,
Third error measurement is MAPE. To find the value of MAPE, the total value of |PEt| should be found out and calculate the average
of it.
1.39
− ′ ,
|𝑃 |= × %= × %= , %
∑𝑡= |𝑃 | , %
𝐴𝑃 = = = , %
For N=5 and N=7, the method is same using the formula of MAD, MSE, and
MAPE. After all of error values already calculated, the lowest value of error will be
choosen.
Table 4.12. Evaluation MAD, MSE, and MAPE (N=3)
N=3

114.67 114.6667 13148.44 6.43% 6.43%
-98.33 98.33333 9669.44 -6.06% 6.06%
-724.33 724.3333 524658.78 - 73.91%
73.91%
-139.67 139.6667 19506.78 - 10.56%
10.56%
258.67 258.6667 66908.44 16.51% 16.51%
144.33 144.3333 20832.11 10.07% 10.07%
168.00 168 28224.00 10.44% 10.44%
111.33 111.3333 12395.11 6.76% 6.76%
-23.67 23.66667 560.11 -1.54% 1.54%
185.00 185 34225.00 10.37% 10.37%
30.67 30.66667 940.44 1.82% 1.82%
95.33 95.33333 9088.44 5.40% 5.40%
130.00 130 16900.00 6.93% 6.93%
129.33 129.3333 16727.11 6.79% 6.79%
-713.33 713.3333 508844.44 - 62.79%
62.79%
-79.33 79.33333 6293.78 -5.09% 5.09%
181.00 181 32761.00 10.55% 10.55%
SUM TOTAL
-230.33 3327 1321683.44 252.01%
AVERAGE
195.7059 77746.08 14.82%
MAD MSE MAPE
1.40
N=5
-701.40 701.4 491961.96 - 71.57%
71.57%
-231.40 231.4 53545.96 - 17.50%
17.50%
84.00 84 7056.00 5.36% 5.36%
-20.80 20.8 432.64 -1.45% 1.45%
223.80 223.8 50086.44 13.91% 13.91%
265.60 265.6 70543.36 16.12% 16.12%
24.00 24 576.00 1.56% 1.56%
224.40 224.4 50355.36 12.58% 12.58%
85.00 85 7225.00 5.04% 5.04%
112.20 112.2 12588.84 6.35% 6.35%
190.80 190.8 36404.64 10.17% 10.17%
175.20 175.2 30695.04 9.19% 9.19%
-668.00 668 446224.00 - 58.80%
58.80%
-114.40 114.4 13087.36 -7.33% 7.33%
66.20 66.2 4382.44 3.86% 3.86%
SUM TOTAL
-284.80 3187.2 1275165.04 240.80%
AVERAGE
212.48 85011.00 16.05%
MAD MSE MAPE
N=7
37.14 37.14286 1379.59 2.37% 2.37%
-88.29 88.28571 7794.37 -6.16% 6.16%
121.00 121 14641.00 7.52% 7.52%
174.14 174.1429 30325.73 10.57% 10.57%
85.29 85.28571 7273.65 5.54% 5.54%
341.14 341.1429 116378.45 19.12% 19.12%
130.29 130.2857 16974.37 7.72% 7.72%
156.00 156 24336.00 8.83% 8.83%
237.57 237.5714 56440.18 12.66% 12.66%
1.41
Table 4.14. Evaluation MAD, MSE, and MAPE (N=7) (Continued)
204.43 204.4286 41791.04 10.73% 10.73%

-608.00 608 369664.00 - 53.52%
53.52%
-110.86 110.8571 12289.31 -7.11% 7.11%
41.29 41.28571 1704.51 2.41% 2.41%
SUM TOTAL
721.14 2335.429 700992.20 154.25%
AVERAGE
179.6484 53922.48 11.87%
MAD MSE MAPE
Table 4.15. Comparation MAD, MSE, and MAPE
Comparation N=3 N=5 N=7

MAD 195.71 212.48 179.65
MSE 77746.08 85011.00 53922.48
MAPE 14.82% 16.05% 11.87%
From the table above, it showed that the lowest values of error is N=7. So, it is
better compared to others and will be continued to validation process.
4.2.3.3. Validation
 Verification
∑𝑡=
= = ,
−
1.42
= , × , = ,
=− , × , =− ,
Table 4.16. MR and Control Limit Calculation
88.29 -37.14 125.43 125.43

-121.00 88.29 -209.29 209.29
-174.14 -121.00 -53.14 53.14
-85.29 -174.14 88.86 88.86
-341.14 -85.29 -255.86 255.86
-130.29 -341.14 210.86 210.86
-156.00 -130.29 -25.71 25.71
-237.57 -156.00 -81.57 81.57
-204.43 -237.57 33.14 33.14
608.00 -204.43 812.43 812.43
110.86 608.00 -497.14 497.14
-41.29 110.86 -152.14 152.14
MR 212.13
UCL 564.27
LCL -564.27
LCL
125.43 564.27 376.1789 188.0894 -564.27 - - 0

376.179 188.089444
209.29 564.27 376.1789 188.0894 -564.27 - - 0
376.179 188.089444
53.14 564.27 376.1789 188.0894 -564.27 - - 0
376.179 188.089444
1.43
Table 4.17. MR and Control Limit Calculation (Continued)
88.86 564.27 376.1789 188.0894 -564.27 - - 0

376.179 188.089444
255.86 564.27 376.1789 188.0894 -564.27 - - 0
376.179 188.089444
210.86 564.27 376.1789 188.0894 -564.27 - - 0
376.179 188.089444
25.71 564.27 376.1789 188.0894 -564.27 - - 0
376.179 188.089444
81.57 564.27 376.1789 188.0894 -564.27 - - 0
376.179 188.089444
33.14 564.27 376.1789 188.0894 -564.27 - - 0
376.179 188.089444
812.43 564.27 376.1789 188.0894 -564.27 - - 0
376.179 188.089444
497.14 564.27 376.1789 188.0894 -564.27 - - 0
376.179 188.089444
152.14 564.27 376.1789 188.0894 -564.27 - - 0
376.179 188.089444
SMA Verification Test

1000.00
800.00
600.00
400.00
200.00
0.00
-200.00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-400.00
-600.00
-800.00

Figure 4.7. SMA Verification Test
1.44
Table 4.18. Tracking Signal - Brown Calculation
Period dt dt' dt-dt' RSFE |dt- Cum |dt-dt'| MAD Tracking UCL CL LCL
Cumulative dt'| Signal
1 1567.0 1529.8 37.14 37.14 37.14 37.14 37.1428 1.00 4 0 -4
0 6 6
2 1434.0 1522.2 -88.29 -51.15 88.29 125.43 62.7142 -0.82 4 0 -4
0 9 9
3 1609.0 1488.0 121.00 69.85 121.0 246.43 82.1428 0.85 4 0 -4
0 0 0 6
4 1648.0 1473.8 174.14 244.00 174.1 420.57 105.142 2.32 4 0 -4
0 6 4 9
5 1540.0 1454.7 85.29 329.28 85.29 505.86 101.171 3.25 4 0 -4
0 1 4
6 1784.0 1442.8 341.14 670.43 341.1 847.00 141.166 4.75 4 0 -4
0 6 4 7
7 1688.0 1557.7 130.29 800.71 130.2 977.29 139.612 5.74 4 0 -4
0 1 9 2
8 1766.0 1610.0 156.00 956.71 156.0 1133.29 141.660 6.75 4 0 -4
0 0 0 7
9 1876.0 1638.4 237.57 1194.28 237.5 1370.86 152.317 7.84 4 0 -4
0 3 7 5
10 1906.0 1701.5 204.43 1398.71 204.4 1575.29 157.528 8.88 4 0 -4
0 7 3 6
11 1136.0 1744.0 -608.00 790.71 608.0 2183.29 198.480 3.98 4 0 -4
0 0 0 5
1.45
Table 4.18. Tracking Signal - Brown Calculation (Continued)
12 1560.0 1670.8 -110.86 679.85 110.8 2294.14 191.178 3.56 4 0 -4

0 6 6 6
13 1715.0 1673.7 41.29 721.14 41.29 2335.43 179.648 4.01 4 0 -4
0 1 4
SMA Tracking Signal - Brown

10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
-2.00
-4.00
-6.00
Figure 4.8. SMA Tracking Signal Brown
From the figure above, it showed that the graph is out of control. So it is mean that this method is not good enough for predicting future
demand.
1.46
4.2.4. Weighted Moving Average (WMA)
A moving average is one of the most popular tools used by active traders to measure
momentum. The primary difference between the simple moving average and the
weighted moving average is the formula used to create them.
Here, there are different kinds of number of time period included in weighted
moving average (N), such as three, five, and seven. The smallest error will be
chosen to be validated. To find the value of forecasting demand for N =3, using
formula as belows.
′
× 𝑡− + × 𝑡− + × 𝑡−
= =
∑
× + × + ×
=
To find the value of forecasting demand for N =5, using formula as belows.
′
× 𝑡− + × 𝑡− + × 𝑡− + × 𝑡− + × 𝑡−
= =
∑
× + × + × + × + ×
=
To find the value of forecasting demand for N =7, using formula as belows.
× 𝑡− + × 𝑡− + × 𝑡− + × 𝑡− + × 𝑡− + × 𝑡− + × 𝑡−
=
× + × + × + × + × + × + ×
=
= ,
1.47
Table 4.19. WMA Forecast Demand Calculation
Month Demand (dt) Forecast Demand Absolute Forecast Demand Absolute Forecast Demand Absolute
(In Units) (dt') (In Units) Deviation (dt') (In Units) Deviation (dt') (In Units) Deviation
N=3 N=3 N=5 N=5 N =7 N=7
January-16 1620
February-16 1674
March-16 1708
April-16 1782 1682 100.00
May-16 1623 1739.333333 116.33
June-16 980 1690.166667 710.17 1689 709.00
July-16 1322 1328 6.00 1455.20 133.20
August-16 1567 1258.166667 308.83 1378.07 188.93 1445.32 121.68
September-16 1434 1387.5 46.50 1406.07 27.93 1454.61 20.61
October-16 1609 1459.666667 149.33 1399.13 209.87 1432.54 176.46
November-16 1648 1543.666667 104.33 1473.73 174.27 1462.79 185.21
December-16 1540 1599.333333 59.33 1562.27 22.27 1506.32 33.68
January-17 1784 1587.5 196.50 1570.27 213.73 1527.64 256.36
February-17 1688 1680 8.00 1645.07 42.93 1612.93 75.07
March-17 1766 1695.333333 70.67 1673.40 92.60 1645.50 120.50
April-17 1876 1743 133.00 1710.80 165.20 1684.50 191.50
May-17 1906 1808 98.00 1774.40 131.60 1743.89 162.11
June-17 1136 1872.666667 736.67 1832.80 696.80 1795.00 659.00
July-17 1560 1516 44.00 1610.13 50.13 1643.00 83.00
August-17 1715 1476.333333 238.67 1572.00 143.00 1615.29 99.71
1.48
Table 4.19. WMA Forecast Demand Calculation (Continued)
September-17 1566.833333 1594.07

October-17 1566.833333 1594.07
November-17 1566.833333 1594.07
December-17 1566.833333 1594.07
January-18 1566.833333 1594.07
February-18 1566.833333 1594.07
of MAD, the total value of |dt-dt’| should be found out and calculate the average of it. Here are example of N = 3.
∑𝑡= | ′
− | ,
𝐴 = = = ,
of it.
∑𝑡= ′
− ,
= = = ,
Third error measurement is MAPE. To find the value of MAPE, the total value of |PEt| should be found out and calculate the average
of it.
1.49
− ′
|𝑃 |= × %= × %= , %
∑𝑡= |𝑃 | , %
𝐴𝑃 = = = , %
choosen.
Table 4.20. MAD, MSE, and MAPE Evaluation (N=3)
N=3

100.00 100 10000.00 5.61% 5.61%
-116.33 116.3333 13533.44 -7.17% 7.17%
-710.17 710.1667 504336.69 - 72.47%
72.47%
-6.00 6 36.00 -0.45% 0.45%
308.83 308.8333 95378.03 19.71% 19.71%
46.50 46.5 2162.25 3.24% 3.24%
149.33 149.3333 22300.44 9.28% 9.28%
104.33 104.3333 10885.44 6.33% 6.33%
-59.33 59.33333 3520.44 -3.85% 3.85%
196.50 196.5 38612.25 11.01% 11.01%
8.00 8 64.00 0.47% 0.47%
70.67 70.66667 4993.78 4.00% 4.00%
133.00 133 17689.00 7.09% 7.09%
98.00 98 9604.00 5.14% 5.14%
-736.67 736.6667 542677.78 - 64.85%
64.85%
44.00 44 1936.00 2.82% 2.82%
238.67 238.6667 56961.78 13.92% 13.92%
SUM TOTAL
-130.67 3126.333 1334691.33 237.42%
AVERAGE
183.902 78511.25 13.97%
MAD MSE MAPE
1.50
N=5
-709.00 709 502681.00 - 72.35%
72.35%
-133.20 133.2 17742.24 - 10.08%
10.08%
188.93 188.9333 35695.80 12.06% 12.06%
27.93 27.93333 780.27 1.95% 1.95%
209.87 209.8667 44044.02 13.04% 13.04%
174.27 174.2667 30368.87 10.57% 10.57%
-22.27 22.26667 495.80 -1.45% 1.45%
213.73 213.7333 45681.94 11.98% 11.98%
42.93 42.93333 1843.27 2.54% 2.54%
92.60 92.6 8574.76 5.24% 5.24%
165.20 165.2 27291.04 8.81% 8.81%
131.60 131.6 17318.56 6.90% 6.90%
-696.80 696.8 485530.24 - 61.34%
61.34%
-50.13 50.13333 2513.35 -3.21% 3.21%
143.00 143 20449.00 8.34% 8.34%
SUM TOTAL
-221.33 3001.467 1241010.17 229.86%
AVERAGE
200.0978 82734.01 15.32%
MAD MSE MAPE
N=7
dt-dt' |dt-dt'| (dt-dt')^2 Pet |PEt|
121.68 121.6786 14805.67 7.77% 7.77%
-20.61 20.60714 424.65 -1.44% 1.44%
176.46 176.4643 31139.64 10.97% 10.97%
185.21 185.2143 34304.33 11.24% 11.24%
33.68 33.67857 1134.25 2.19% 2.19%
256.36 256.3571 65718.98 14.37% 14.37%
75.07 75.07143 5635.72 4.45% 4.45%
120.50 120.5 14520.25 6.82% 6.82%
191.50 191.5 36672.25 10.21% 10.21%
1.51
Table 4.22. MAD, MSE, and MAPE Evaluation (N=7) (Continued)
162.11 162.1071 26278.73 8.51% 8.51%

-659.00 659 434281.00 - 58.01%
58.01%
-83.00 83 6889.00 -5.32% 5.32%
99.71 99.71429 9942.94 5.81% 5.81%
SUM TOTAL
659.68 2184.893 681747.42 147.09%
AVERAGE
168.0687 52442.11 11.31%
MAD MSE MAPE
Table 4.23. MAD, MSE, and MAPE Comparation

MAD 183.90 200.0977778 168.07
MSE 78511.25 82734.01 52442.11
MAPE 13.97% 15.32% 11.31%
From the table above, it showed that the lowest values of error is N=7. So, it is
better compared to others and will be continued to validation process.
4.2.4.3. Validation
 Verification
∑𝑡=
= = ,
−
= , × , = ,
1.52
=− , × , =− ,
Table 4.24. MR, UCL, and LCL Calculation
20.61 -121.68 142.29 142.29

-176.46 20.61 -197.07 197.07
-185.21 -176.46 -8.75 8.75
-33.68 -185.21 151.54 151.54
-256.36 -33.68 -222.68 222.68
-75.07 -256.36 181.29 181.29
-120.50 -75.07 -45.43 45.43
-191.50 -120.50 -71.00 71.00
-162.11 -191.50 29.39 29.39
659.00 -162.11 821.11 821.11
83.00 659.00 -576.00 576.00
-99.71 83.00 -182.71 182.71
MR 219.10
UCL 582.82
LCL -582.82
Table 4.25. MR, UCL, and LCL Calculation
LCL
142.29 582.82 388.5447 194.2724 -582.82 - -194.2723611 0

388.545
197.07 582.82 388.5447 194.2724 -582.82 - -194.2723611 0
388.545
8.75 582.82 388.5447 194.2724 -582.82 - -194.2723611 0
388.545
151.54 582.82 388.5447 194.2724 -582.82 - -194.2723611 0
388.545
1.53
Table 4.25. MR, UCL, and LCL Calculation (Contineud)
222.68 582.82 388.5447 194.2724 -582.82 - -194.2723611 0

388.545
181.29 582.82 388.5447 194.2724 -582.82 - -194.2723611 0
388.545
45.43 582.82 388.5447 194.2724 -582.82 - -194.2723611 0
388.545
71.00 582.82 388.5447 194.2724 -582.82 - -194.2723611 0
388.545
29.39 582.82 388.5447 194.2724 -582.82 - -194.2723611 0
388.545
821.11 582.82 388.5447 194.2724 -582.82 - -194.2723611 0
388.545
576.00 582.82 388.5447 194.2724 -582.82 - -194.2723611 0
388.545
182.71 582.82 388.5447 194.2724 -582.82 - -194.2723611 0
388.545
WMA Verification Test

1000.00
800.00
600.00
400.00
200.00
0.00
-200.00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-400.00
-600.00
-800.00

Figure 4.9. WMA Verification Test
1.54
MAD, using previous one. The tracking signal could be found by using formula as belows.
∑𝑡= ′
− ,
𝑖 𝑖 = = = =
𝐴 𝐴 ,
Table 4.26. Tracking Signal Calculation
Cumulative Signal
1 1567.00 1445.32 121.68 121.68 121.68 121.68 121.678 1.00 4 0 -4
6
2 1434.00 1454.61 -20.61 101.07 20.61 142.29 71.1428 1.42 4 0 -4
6
3 1609.00 1432.54 176.46 277.54 176.46 318.75 106.25 2.61 4 0 -4
4 1648.00 1462.79 185.21 462.75 185.21 503.96 125.991 3.67 4 0 -4
1
5 1540.00 1506.32 33.68 496.43 33.68 537.64 107.528 4.62 4 0 -4
6
6 1784.00 1527.64 256.36 752.79 256.36 794.00 132.333 5.69 4 0 -4
3
7 1688.00 1612.93 75.07 827.86 75.07 869.07 124.153 6.67 4 0 -4
1
8 1766.00 1645.50 120.50 948.36 120.50 989.57 123.696 7.67 4 0 -4
4
1.55
Table 4.26. Tracking Signal Calculation (Continued)
9 1876.00 1684.50 191.50 1139.86 191.50 1181.07 131.230 8.69 4 0 -4

2
10 1906.00 1743.89 162.11 1301.96 162.11 1343.18 134.317 9.69 4 0 -4
9
11 1136.00 1795.00 -659.00 642.96 659.00 2002.18 182.016 3.53 4 0 -4
2
12 1560.00 1643.00 -83.00 559.96 83.00 2085.18 173.764 3.22 4 0 -4
9
13 1715.00 1615.29 99.71 659.68 99.71 2184.89 168.068 3.93 4 0 -4
7
1.56
WMA Tracking SIgnal - Brown
12.00
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
-2.00
-4.00
-6.00
Figure 4.10. WMA Tracking Signal - Brown
4.2.5. Double Moving Average (DMA)

In this method, the calculation of moving averages as much as two times then
followed by predicting using a certain equation.
Here, there are different kinds of number of time period (N) included in double
moving average, such as three, five, and seven. The smallest error will be chosen to
be validated. To find the value of forecasting demand for N =3, using formula as
belows.
′
+ +
= = ,
′
, + , + ,
= = ,
′
= − "=
′
= − " = ,
−
1.57
So, the forecast demand for next month is like formula below.
+ = + . = ,
Table 4.27. DMA Forecast Demand (N=3)
Month Demand (dt) MA (3) MA at Bt Forecast Demand Absolute

(In Units) St' (3x3) (dt') (In Units) N Deviation
St" =3 N=3
January-16 1620.00
February-16 1674.00
March-16 1708.00 1667.33
April-16 1782.00 1721.33
May-16 1623.00 1704.33 1697.67 1711.00 6.67
June-16 980.00 1461.67 1629.11 1294.22 - 1717.67 737.67
167.44
July-16 1322.00 1308.33 1491.44 1125.22 - 1126.78 195.22
183.11
August-16 1567.00 1289.67 1353.22 1226.11 -63.56 942.11 624.89
September-16 1434.00 1441.00 1346.33 1535.67 94.67 1162.56 271.44
October-16 1609.00 1536.67 1422.44 1650.89 114.22 1630.33 21.33
November-16 1648.00 1563.67 1513.78 1613.56 49.89 1765.11 117.11
December-16 1540.00 1599.00 1566.44 1631.56 32.56 1663.44 123.44
January-17 1784.00 1657.33 1606.67 1708.00 50.67 1664.11 119.89
1.58
Table 4.27. DMA Forecast Demand (N=3) (Continued)
February-17 1688.00 1670.67 1642.33 1699.00 28.33 1758.67 70.67

March-17 1766.00 1746.00 1691.33 1800.67 54.67 1727.33 38.67
April-17 1876.00 1776.67 1731.11 1822.22 45.56 1855.33 20.67
May-17 1906.00 1849.33 1790.67 1908.00 58.67 1867.78 38.22
June-17 1136.00 1639.33 1755.11 1523.56 - 1966.67 830.67
115.78
July-17 1560.00 1534.00 1674.22 1393.78 - 1407.78 152.22
140.22
August-17 1715.00 1470.33 1547.89 1392.78 -77.56 1253.56 461.44
October-17 1237.67
November-17 1160.11
December-17 1082.56
January-18 1005.00
February-18 927.44
To find the value of forecasting demand for N =5 and N=7, the method is almost same with formula above. But the different in average
of previous demand based on number of period. For example, N=5, so average the values of previous 5 demand before, and the value
of St’ and St”calculated. After that, find the value of at and bt, and calculate forecast demand for next month.
1.59
MA (5) MA at bt Forecast Demand Absolute

St' (5x5) (dt') (In Units) Deviation
St" N=5 N=5
1681.40
1553.40
1483.00
1454.80
1385.20 1511.56 1258.840 -63.18
1382.40 1451.76 1313.040 -34.68 1195.660 413.34
1516.00 1444.28 1587.720 35.86 1278.360 369.64
1559.60 1459.60 1659.600 50.00 1623.580 83.58
1603.00 1489.24 1716.760 56.88 1709.600 74.4
1653.80 1542.96 1764.640 55.42 1773.640 85.64
1685.20 1603.52 1766.880 40.84 1820.060 54.06
1730.80 1646.48 1815.120 42.16 1807.720 68.28
1804.00 1695.36 1912.640 54.32 1857.280 48.72
1674.40 1709.64 1639.160 -17.62 1966.960 830.96
1648.80 1708.64 1588.960 -29.92 1621.540 61.54
1638.60 1699.32 1577.880 -30.36 1559.040 155.96
1547.520
1517.160
1486.800
1456.44
1426.08
1395.72
1.60
MA (7) MA at bt Forecast Absolute

St' (7x7) Demand Deviation
St" (dt') (In N=7
Units)
N=7
1529.86
1522.29
1488.00
1473.86
1454.71
1442.86
1557.71 1495.61 1619.816 20.70068
1610.00 1507.06 1712.939 34.31293 1640.517 47.48
1638.43 1523.65 1753.204 38.2585 1747.252 18.75
1701.57 1554.16 1848.98 49.13605 1791.463 84.54
1744.00 1592.76 1895.245 50.41497 1898.116 7.88
1670.86 1623.63 1718.082 15.7415 1945.66 809.66
1673.71 1656.61 1690.816 5.70068 1733.823 173.82
1663.86 1671.78 1655.939 -2.63946 1696.517 18.48
1653.299
1650.66
1648.02
1645.381
1642.741
1640.102
dt’| should be found out and calculate the average of it. Here are example of N = 3.
1.61
∑𝑡= | ′
− | ,
𝐴 = = = ,
∑𝑡= ′
− ,
= = = ,
− ′ ,
|𝑃 |= × %= × %= , %
∑𝑡= |𝑃 | , %
𝐴𝑃 = = = , %
choosen.
N=3

-737.67 737.6667 544152.11 -75.27% 75.27%
195.22 195.2222 38111.72 14.77% 14.77%
624.89 624.8889 390486.12 39.88% 39.88%
271.44 271.4444 73682.09 18.93% 18.93%
-21.33 21.33333 455.11 -1.33% 1.33%
-117.11 117.1111 13715.01 -7.11% 7.11%
-123.44 123.4444 15238.53 -8.02% 8.02%
119.89 119.8889 14373.35 6.72% 6.72%
-70.67 70.66667 4993.78 -4.19% 4.19%
38.67 38.66667 1495.11 2.19% 2.19%
20.67 20.66667 427.11 1.10% 1.10%
1.62
Table 4.30. Evaluation MAD, MSE, and MAPE (N=3) (Continued)
38.22 38.22222 1460.94 2.01% 2.01%

-830.67 830.6667 690007.11 -73.12% 73.12%
152.22 152.2222 23171.60 9.76% 9.76%
461.44 461.4444 212930.98 26.91% 26.91%
SUM TOTAL
21.78 3823.556 2024700.67 291.28%
AVERAGE
254.9037 134980.04 19.42%
MAD MSE MAPE
N=5
413.34 413.34 170849.96 25.69% 25.69%
369.64 369.64 136633.73 22.43% 22.43%
-83.58 83.58 6985.62 -5.43% 5.43%
74.40 74.4 5535.36 4.17% 4.17%
-85.64 85.64 7334.21 -5.07% 5.07%
-54.06 54.06 2922.48 -3.06% 3.06%
68.28 68.28 4662.16 3.64% 3.64%
48.72 48.72 2373.64 2.56% 2.56%
-830.96 830.96 690494.52 -73.15% 73.15%
-61.54 61.54 3787.17 -3.94% 3.94%
155.96 155.96 24323.52 9.09% 9.09%
SUM TOTAL
14.56 2246.12 1055902.37 158.23%
AVERAGE
204.1927 95991.12 14.38%
MAD MSE MAPE
1.63
N=7
47.48 47.48299 2254.63 2.81% 2.81%
18.75 18.7483 351.50 1.06% 1.06%
84.54 84.53741 7146.57 4.51% 4.51%
7.88 7.884354 62.16 0.41% 0.41%
-809.66 809.6599 655549.10 -71.27% 71.27%
-173.82 173.8231 30214.48 -11.14% 11.14%
18.48 18.48299 341.62 1.08% 1.08%
SUM TOTAL
-806.35 1160.619 695920.07 92.29%
AVERAGE
165.8027 99417.15 13.18%
MAD MSE MAPE
Table 4.33. Comparation MAD, MSE, and MAPE

MAD 254.90 204.193 165.80
MSE 134980.04 95991.12 99417.15
MAPE 19.42% 14.38% 13.18%
From the table 4.33 Comparation MAD,MSE and MAPE, shows that the lowest
values of error is N=7. So, it is better compared to others and will be continued to
validation process.
4.2.5.3. Validation
1.64
 Verification
∑𝑡=
= = ,
−
= , × , = ,
=− , × , =− ,
-18.75 -47.48 28.73 28.73

-84.54 -18.75 -65.79 65.79
-7.88 -84.54 76.65 76.65
809.66 -7.88 817.54 817.54
173.82 809.66 -635.84 635.84
-18.48 173.82 -192.31 192.31
MR 302.81
UCL 805.48
LCL -805.48
1.65
LCL
28.73 805.48 536.9842 268.4921 -805.48 - -268.4921164 0

536.984
65.79 805.48 536.9842 268.4921 -805.48 - -268.4921164 0
536.984
76.65 805.48 536.9842 268.4921 -805.48 - -268.4921164 0
536.984
817.54 805.48 536.9842 268.4921 -805.48 - -268.4921164 0
536.984
635.84 805.48 536.9842 268.4921 -805.48 - -268.4921164 0
536.984
192.31 805.48 536.9842 268.4921 -805.48 - -268.4921164 0
536.984
DMA Verification Test

1000.00
800.00
600.00
400.00
200.00
0.00
-200.00 1 2 3 4 5 6
-400.00
-600.00
-800.00
-1000.00
Figure 4.11. DMA Verification Test
From the figure 4.11, shows that the graph is out of control. So it is mean that this
method is not good enough for predicting future demand.
1.66
Other method to validate the method is by using the tracking signal brown check. To find out the value of tracking signal, there are
several values should be found out first. The calculation could be seen in the table below. To find out the value of MAD, using previous
one. The tracking signal could be found by using formula as belows.
∑𝑡= ′
− ,
𝑖 𝑖 = = = =
𝐴 𝐴 ,
Table 4.36. Tracking Signal – Brown Calculation
Period dt dt' dt-dt' RSFE |dt- Cum |dt-dt'| MAD Tracking UCL CL LCL
Cumulative dt'| Signal
1 1688.00 1640.52 47.48 47.48 47.48 47.48 47.48299 1.00 4 0 -4
2 1766.00 1747.25 18.75 66.23 18.75 66.23 33.11565 2.00 4 0 -4
3 1876.00 1791.46 84.54 150.77 84.54 150.77 50.25624 3.00 4 0 -4
4 1906.00 1898.12 7.88 158.65 7.88 158.65 39.66327 4.00 4 0 -4
5 1136.00 1945.66 -809.66 -651.01 809.66 968.31 193.6626 -3.36 4 0 -4
6 1560.00 1733.82 -173.82 -824.83 173.82 1142.14 190.356 -4.33 4 0 -4
7 1715.00 1696.52 18.48 -806.35 18.48 1160.62 165.8027 -4.86 4 0 -4
1.67
DMA Tracking Signal - Brown Check
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
-1.00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
-2.00
-3.00
-4.00
-5.00
-6.00
Figure 4.12. DMA Tracking Signal – Brown Check
4.2.6. Single Exponential Smoothing (SES)

Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) is suitable for forecasting data with no trend
or seasonal pattern.
Based on the figure below, the calculation of Single Exponential Smoothing (SES)
is shown. Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) calculation is using the value of ∝.
∝ is the coefficient of smoothing. Usually ∝ is between 0 and 1.
There are different kinds of ∝ which is 0.3, 0.5, and 0.7. Example the calculation
on February 2016 with ∝ = . , the calculation using formula as below.
′
= . + − . =
So, the forecasting for next month (February 2016) is 1620. And for the other ∝
will use the same calculation. The point is just change the value of ∝.
1.68
Table 4.37. SES Forecast Demand
Month Demand (dt) Forecast Demand (dt') by α (In Units)

(In Units) α = 0.3 α = 0.5 α = 0.7
January-16 1620
February-16 1674 1620 1620 1620
March-16 1708 1636.20 1647.00 1657.80
April-16 1782 1657.74 1677.50 1692.94
May-16 1623 1695.02 1729.75 1755.28
June-16 980 1673.41 1676.38 1662.68
July-16 1322 1465.39 1328.19 1184.81
August-16 1567 1422.37 1325.09 1280.84
September-16 1434 1465.76 1446.05 1481.15
October-16 1609 1456.23 1440.02 1448.15
November-16 1648 1502.06 1524.51 1560.74
December-16 1540 1545.84 1586.26 1621.82
January-17 1784 1544.09 1563.13 1564.55
February-17 1688 1616.06 1673.56 1718.16
March-17 1766 1637.64 1680.78 1697.05
April-17 1876 1676.15 1723.39 1745.31
May-17 1906 1736.11 1799.70 1836.79
June-17 1136 1787.07 1852.85 1885.24
July-17 1560 1591.75 1494.42 1360.77
August-17 1715 1582.23 1527.21 1500.23
September-17 1622.06 1621.11 1650.57
October-17 1622.06 1621.11
November-17 1622.06 1621.11
December-17 1622.06 1621.11
January-18 1622.06 1621.11
February-18 1622.06 1621.11
The first method is MAD method. To find the value of MAD, the total value of |dt-
dt’| should be found out and calculate the average of it. Here are example of ∝ =
0.5.
1.69
∑𝑡= | ′
− | .
𝐴 = = = .
The second method to calculate the error is MSE. To find the value of MSE, the
total value of (dt-dt’)2 should be found out and calculate the average of it. The
calculation is using the value of ∝ = . .
∑𝑡= ′
− .
= = = .
The third method to find the error measurement is MAPE. To find the value of
MAPE, the total value of |PEt| should be found out and calculate the average of it.
The calculation is using the value of ∝ = . .
′
−
|𝑃 |= × %= × %= . %
∑𝑡= |𝑃 | , %
𝐴𝑃 = = = , %
For ∝=5 and ∝=7, the three methods calculation are same with the above
calculation. After all of error values already calculated, the lowest value of error
will be choosen.
Table 4.38. MAD, MSE, and MAPE Calculation (α = 0.3)
α = 0.3
54.00 54 2916.00 3.23% 3.23%

71.80 71.8 5155.24 4.20% 4.20%
124.26 124.26 15440.55 6.97% 6.97%
-72.02 72.018 5186.59 -4.44% 4.44%
-693.41 693.4126 480821.03 - 70.76%
70.76%
-143.39 143.3888 20560.35 - 10.85%
10.85%
144.63 144.6278 20917.21 9.23% 9.23%
-31.76 31.76052 1008.73 -2.21% 2.21%
152.77 152.7676 23337.95 9.49% 9.49%
145.94 145.9373 21297.71 8.86% 8.86%
1.70
Table 4.38. MAD, MSE, and MAPE Calculation (α = 0.3) (Continued)
-5.84 5.843859 34.15 -0.38% 0.38%

239.91 239.9093 57556.47 13.45% 13.45%
71.94 71.93651 5174.86 4.26% 4.26%
128.36 128.3556 16475.15 7.27% 7.27%
199.85 199.8489 39939.58 10.65% 10.65%
169.89 169.8942 28864.05 8.91% 8.91%
-651.07 651.074 423897.41 - 57.31%
57.31%
-31.75 31.75183 1008.18 -2.04% 2.04%
132.77 132.7737 17628.86 7.74% 7.74%
SUM TOTAL
6.86 3265.361 1187220.07 242.25%
AVERAGE
171.8611 62485.27 12.75%
MAD MSE MAPE
α = 0.5
54.00 54 2916.00 3.23% 3.23%
61.00 61 3721.00 3.57% 3.57%
104.50 104.5 10920.25 5.86% 5.86%
-106.75 106.75 11395.56 -6.58% 6.58%
-696.38 696.375 484938.14 - 71.06%
71.06%
-6.19 6.1875 38.29 -0.47% 0.47%
241.91 241.9063 58518.63 15.44% 15.44%
-12.05 12.04688 145.13 -0.84% 0.84%
168.98 168.9766 28553.08 10.50% 10.50%
123.49 123.4883 15249.36 7.49% 7.49%
-46.26 46.25586 2139.60 -3.00% 3.00%
220.87 220.8721 48784.47 12.38% 12.38%
14.44 14.43604 208.40 0.86% 0.86%
85.22 85.21802 7262.11 4.83% 4.83%
152.61 152.609 23289.51 8.13% 8.13%
106.30 106.3045 11300.65 5.58% 5.58%
-716.85 716.8477 513870.69 - 63.10%
63.10%
65.58 65.57613 4300.23 4.20% 4.20%
1.71
Table 4.39. MAD, MSE, and MAPE Calculation (α = 0.5) (Continued)
187.79 187.7881 35264.36 10.95% 10.95%
SUM TOTAL
2.21 3171.138 1262815.45 238.07%
AVERAGE
166.902 66463.97 12.53%
MAD MSE MAPE
α = 0.7
54.00 54 2916.00 3.23% 3.23%
50.20 50.2 2520.04 2.94% 2.94%
89.06 89.06 7931.68 5.00% 5.00%
-132.28 132.282 17498.53 -8.15% 8.15%
-682.68 682.6846 466058.26 - 69.66%
69.66%
137.19 137.1946 18822.36 10.38% 10.38%
286.16 286.1584 81886.62 18.26% 18.26%
-47.15 47.15248 2223.36 -3.29% 3.29%
160.85 160.8543 25874.09 10.00% 10.00%
87.26 87.25628 7613.66 5.29% 5.29%
-81.82 81.82312 6695.02 -5.31% 5.31%
219.45 219.4531 48159.65 12.30% 12.30%
-30.16 30.16408 909.87 -1.79% 1.79%
68.95 68.95078 4754.21 3.90% 3.90%
130.69 130.6852 17078.63 6.97% 6.97%
69.21 69.20557 4789.41 3.63% 3.63%
-749.24 749.2383 561358.07 - 65.95%
65.95%
199.23 199.2285 39692.00 12.77% 12.77%
214.77 214.7686 46125.53 12.52% 12.52%
SUM TOTAL
43.67 3490.36 1362907.00 261.35%
AVERAGE
183.7031 71731.95 13.76%
MAD MSE MAPE
1.72
Comparation α = 0.3 α = 0.5 α = 0.7

MAD 171.8610882 166.9019948 183.7031496
MSE 62485.27 66463.97 71731.95
MAPE 12.75% 12.53% 13.76%
Based on the figure above, the alpha (∝ that have the lowest values of error is ∝
= . . Because of it has the lowest error than the other two alpha (∝ , so it is the
best for this method and then it is used to the validation process now.
4.2.6.3. Validation
After determining the value of MAD, MSE, and MAPE, the next step is do
validation towards the forecasting method. Validation method consist of two, such
as verification and tracking signal. In this case, the calculation is using tracking
signal – brown.
 Verification
value of (dt'-dt)-(d(t-1)'-d(t-1)) as a value of MRt. After that, to find out the value
of MR using formula based on the previous chapter.
∑𝑡=
= = .
−
= . × . = .
=− . × . =− .
=
1.73
dt'-dt d(t-1)'-d(t-1) (dt'-dt)-(d(t-1)'-d(t- |(dt'-dt)-(d(t-1)'-d(t-1))|

1))
-61.00 -54.00 -7.00 7.00
-104.50 -71.80 -32.70 32.70
106.75 -124.26 231.01 231.01
696.38 72.02 624.36 624.36
6.19 693.41 -687.23 687.23
-241.91 143.39 -385.30 385.30
12.05 -144.63 156.67 156.67
-168.98 31.76 -200.74 200.74
-123.49 -152.77 29.28 29.28
46.26 -145.94 192.19 192.19
-220.87 5.84 -226.72 226.72
-14.44 -239.91 225.47 225.47
-85.22 -71.94 -13.28 13.28
-152.61 -128.36 -24.25 24.25
-106.30 -199.85 93.54 93.54
716.85 -169.89 886.74 886.74
-65.58 651.07 -716.65 716.65
-187.79 31.75 -219.54 219.54
MR 275.15
UCL 731.8948749
LCL -731.8948749
1.74
MRt UCL 2/3 UCL 1/3 LCL 2/3 1/3 LCL CL

UCL LCL
7.00 731.89 487.9299 243.965 -731.89 -487.93 - 0
243.964958
32.70 731.89 487.9299 243.965 -731.89 -487.93 - 0
243.964958
231.01 731.89 487.9299 243.965 -731.89 -487.93 - 0
243.964958
624.36 731.89 487.9299 243.965 -731.89 -487.93 - 0
243.964958
687.23 731.89 487.9299 243.965 -731.89 -487.93 - 0
243.964958
385.30 731.89 487.9299 243.965 -731.89 -487.93 - 0
243.964958
156.67 731.89 487.9299 243.965 -731.89 -487.93 - 0
243.964958
200.74 731.89 487.9299 243.965 -731.89 -487.93 - 0
243.964958
29.28 731.89 487.9299 243.965 -731.89 -487.93 - 0
243.964958
192.19 731.89 487.9299 243.965 -731.89 -487.93 - 0
243.964958
226.72 731.89 487.9299 243.965 -731.89 -487.93 - 0
243.964958
225.47 731.89 487.9299 243.965 -731.89 -487.93 - 0
243.964958
13.28 731.89 487.9299 243.965 -731.89 -487.93 - 0
243.964958
24.25 731.89 487.9299 243.965 -731.89 -487.93 - 0
243.964958
93.54 731.89 487.9299 243.965 -731.89 -487.93 - 0
243.964958
886.74 731.89 487.9299 243.965 -731.89 -487.93 - 0
243.964958
716.65 731.89 487.9299 243.965 -731.89 -487.93 - 0
243.964958
219.54 731.89 487.9299 243.965 -731.89 -487.93 - 0
243.964958
1.75
Figure 4.13. SES Verification Test
Based on the figure 4. , it showed that the graph is out of control. Thus, it is mean
that this method is not good enough for predicting future demand.
The other method to validate the method is by using the tracking signal brown
check. To find out the value of tracking signal, there are several values should be
found out first. The calculation could be seen in the table below. To find out the
value of MAD, using previous one. The tracking signal could be found by using
formula as belows.
∑𝑡= ′
−
𝑖 𝑖 = = = =
𝐴 𝐴
control limit. The common control limit values is UCL = 4, LCL = -4, and CL = 0.
Plot the data using the line graph, the result is shown in the figure
1.76
Period dt dt' dt-dt' RSFE |dt-dt'| Cum |dt- MAD Tracking UCL CL LCL
Cumulativ dt'| Signal
e
1 1674.00 1620.00 54.00 54.00 54.00 54.00 54 1.00 4 0 -4
2 1708.00 1647.00 61.00 115.00 61.00 115.00 57.5 2.00 4 0 -4
3 1782.00 1677.50 104.50 219.50 104.50 219.50 73.1666 3.00 4 0 -4
7
4 1623.00 1729.75 -106.75 112.75 106.75 326.25 81.5625 1.38 4 0 -4
5 980.00 1676.38 -696.38 -583.63 696.38 1022.63 204.525 -2.85 4 0 -4
6 1322.00 1328.19 -6.19 -589.81 6.19 1028.81 171.468 -3.44 4 0 -4
8
7 1567.00 1325.09 241.91 -347.91 241.91 1270.72 181.531 -1.92 4 0 -4
3
8 1434.00 1446.05 -12.05 -359.95 12.05 1282.77 160.345 -2.24 4 0 -4
7
9 1609.00 1440.02 168.98 -190.98 168.98 1451.74 161.304 -1.18 4 0 -4
7
10 1648.00 1524.51 123.49 -67.49 123.49 1575.23 157.523 -0.43 4 0 -4
11 1540.00 1586.26 -46.26 -113.74 46.26 1621.49 147.407 -0.77 4 0 -4
8
12 1784.00 1563.13 220.87 107.13 220.87 1842.36 153.529 0.70 4 0 -4
9
13 1688.00 1673.56 14.44 121.56 14.44 1856.79 142.830 0.85 4 0 -4
3
14 1766.00 1680.78 85.22 206.78 85.22 1942.01 138.715 1.49 4 0 -4
2
1.77
15 1876.00 1723.39 152.61 359.39 152.61 2094.62 139.641 2.57 4 0 -4

4
16 1906.00 1799.70 106.30 465.70 106.30 2200.93 137.557 3.39 4 0 -4
9
17 1136.00 1852.85 -716.85 -251.15 716.85 2917.77 171.633 -1.46 4 0 -4
7
18 1560.00 1494.42 65.58 -185.58 65.58 2983.35 165.741 -1.12 4 0 -4
7
19 1715.00 1527.21 187.79 2.21 187.79 3171.14 166.902 0.01 4 0 -4
Figure 4.14. SES Tracking Signal - Brown
1.78
4.2.7. Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) – Brown Method

In the exponential smoothing method, not only a single exponential smoothing
(SES) but there is also double exponential smoothing. It is an improvement of
Simple Exponential Smoothing (SES) which does the exponential filter processed
twice. In double exponential smoothing (DES), there are two methods, Brown
Method and Holt Method. In this part, the demand will be forecasted by using the
Brown Method.
Here, there are different kinds of number of time period included in coefficient
factor (α), such as 0.3, 0.5, and 0.7. The smallest error will be chosen to be validated.
In order to find the value of forecasting demand for α = 0.3, first calculate the single-
smoothed series by using this formula below:
𝑡′ = 𝑡 + − 𝑡− ′
′
= . + − .
′
= .
In this method, the first single-smoothed series, it’s assumed to be same like the
demand. The first double-smoothed series also assumed to be same like the demand.
So, the second period’s single-smoothed series and double-smoothed series and the
rest period can be calculated. After the single-smoothed series is calculated, then
the double-smoothed series can be calculated by using this formula below:
𝑡 ′′ = 𝑡′ + − 𝑡− ′′
′′
= . . + − .
′′
= .
1.79
After that, the rest period’s also calculated by using these formula in order to find
each at and bt (the coefficient to forecast the demand). The coefficient at and bt can
be calculated by using these formula:
′
𝑡 = 𝑡 − 𝑡 ′′
′ ′′
𝑡 = 𝑡 − 𝑡
−
For example, the coefficient at and bt of period 2 are :
1.80
= . − . = .
.
= . − . = .
− .
The coefficient of period 2 is used to forecast the demand of period 3 like this:
𝑡+ = 𝑡 + 𝑡
+ = . + . = .
The result of forecasting by using DES-Browns method with α= 0.3 can be seen in the table below:
Table 4.45. DES Browns Forecast Demand (α =0.3)
Month Demand (dt)

(In Units) α = 0.3
St' St" at bt Forecast Demand
(Dt')
January-16 1620 1620 1620
February-16 1674 1636.20 1624.86 1647.54 5.59
March-16 1708 1657.74 1634.72 1680.76 11.34 1653.13
April-16 1782 1695.02 1652.81 1737.22 20.79 1692.09
May-16 1623 1673.41 1658.99 1687.83 7.10 1758.01
June-16 980 1465.39 1600.91 1329.87 - 1694.94
66.75
1.81
Table 4.45. DES Browns Forecast Demand (α =0.3) (Continued)
July-16 1322 1422.37 1547.35 1297.39 - 1263.12

61.56
August-16 1567 1465.76 1522.87 1408.65 - 1235.84
28.13
September-16 1434 1456.23 1502.88 1409.58 - 1380.52
22.98
October-16 1609 1502.06 1502.64 1501.49 -0.28 1386.61
November-16 1648 1545.84 1515.60 1576.09 14.90 1501.21
December-16 1540 1544.09 1524.15 1564.04 9.82 1590.99
January-17 1784 1616.06 1551.72 1680.41 31.69 1573.86
February-17 1688 1637.64 1577.50 1697.79 29.62 1712.10
March-17 1766 1676.15 1607.09 1745.21 34.01 1727.42
April-17 1876 1736.11 1645.80 1826.41 44.48 1779.22
May-17 1906 1787.07 1688.18 1885.97 48.71 1870.89
June-17 1136 1591.75 1659.25 1524.25 - 1934.68
33.25
July-17 1560 1582.23 1636.14 1528.31 - 1491.01
26.56
August-17 1715 1622.06 1631.92 1612.20 -4.86 1501.75
October-17 1602.49
November-17 1597.63
December-17 1592.77
January-18 1587.92
February-18 1583.06
1.82
To find the value of forecasting demand for α = 0.5 by using the formula like the
previous forecasting that used α = 0.3. So, first calculation is about to find the
single-smoothed series like on the below:
𝑡′ = 𝑡 + − 𝑡− ′
′
= . + − .
′
= .
It’s like the first forecasting before, the first single-smoothed series is assumed to
be same like the demand. The first double-smoothed series also assumed to be same
like the demand. So, the second period’s single-smoothed series and double-
smoothed series and the rest period can be calculated. After the single-smoothed
series is calculated, then the double-smoothed series can be calculated by using this
formula below:
𝑡 ′′ = 𝑡′ + − 𝑡− ′′
′′
= . . + − .
′′
= .
′
𝑡 = 𝑡 − 𝑡 ′′
′ ′′
𝑡 = 𝑡 − 𝑡
−
= . − . = .
.
= . − . = .
− .
1.83
𝑡+ = 𝑡 + 𝑡
+ = . + . = .
The result of forecasting by using DES-Browns method with α= 0.5 can be seen in
the table below:
α = 0.5
St' St" at bt Forecast Demand (Dt')
1620 1620
1647.00 1633.50 1660.50 13.50
1677.50 1655.50 1699.50 22.00 1674.00
1729.75 1692.63 1766.88 37.13 1721.50
1676.38 1684.50 1668.25 -8.13 1804.00
1328.19 1506.34 1150.03 -178.16 1660.13
1325.09 1415.72 1234.47 -90.63 971.88
1446.05 1430.88 1461.21 15.16 1143.84
1440.02 1435.45 1444.59 4.57 1476.38
1524.51 1479.98 1569.04 44.53 1449.16
1586.26 1533.12 1639.39 53.14 1613.57
1563.13 1548.12 1578.13 15.00 1692.53
1673.56 1610.84 1736.28 62.72 1593.14
1680.78 1645.81 1715.75 34.97 1799.00
1723.39 1684.60 1762.18 38.79 1750.72
1799.70 1742.15 1857.24 57.55 1800.97
1852.85 1797.50 1908.20 55.35 1914.79
1494.42 1645.96 1342.89 -151.54 1963.55
1527.21 1586.59 1467.84 -59.37 1191.35
1621.11 1603.85 1638.37 17.26 1408.46
1655.63
1672.89
1690.14
1707.40
1724.66
1741.92
1.84
To find the value of forecasting demand for α = 0.7 by using the formula like the
previous forecasting that used α = 0.5. So, first calculation is about to find the
single-smoothed series like on the below:
𝑡′ = 𝑡 + − 𝑡− ′
′
= . + − .
′
= .
It’s like the first forecasting before, the first single-smoothed series is assumed to
be same like the demand. The first double-smoothed series also assumed to be same
like the demand. So, the second period’s single-smoothed series and double-
smoothed series and the rest period can be calculated. After the single-smoothed
series is calculated, then the double-smoothed series can be calculated by using this
formula below:
𝑡 ′′ = 𝑡′ + − 𝑡− ′′
′′
= . . + − .
′′
= .
′
𝑡 = 𝑡 − 𝑡 ′′
′ ′′
𝑡 = 𝑡 − 𝑡
−
= . − . = .
.
= . − . = .
− .
1.85
𝑡+ = 𝑡 + 𝑡
+ = . + . = .
The result of forecasting by using DES-Browns method with α= 0.7 can be seen in
the table 4.47.
α = 0.7
St' St" at bt Forecast Demand (Dt')
1620 1620
1657.80 1646.46 1669.14 7.56
1692.94 1679.00 1706.88 9.30 1676.70
1755.28 1732.40 1778.17 15.26 1716.18
1662.68 1683.60 1641.77 -13.94 1793.43
1184.81 1334.44 1035.17 -99.76 1627.83
1280.84 1296.92 1264.76 -10.72 935.41
1481.15 1425.88 1536.42 36.85 1254.04
1448.15 1441.47 1454.82 4.45 1573.27
1560.74 1524.96 1596.53 23.86 1459.28
1621.82 1592.76 1650.88 19.37 1620.38
1564.55 1573.01 1556.08 -5.64 1670.25
1718.16 1674.62 1761.71 29.03 1550.44
1697.05 1690.32 1703.78 4.49 1790.74
1745.31 1728.82 1761.81 11.00 1708.26
1836.79 1804.40 1869.19 21.60 1772.81
1885.24 1860.99 1909.49 16.17 1890.78
1360.77 1510.84 1210.71 -100.04 1925.66
1500.23 1503.41 1497.05 -2.12 1110.66
1650.57 1606.42 1694.72 29.43 1494.93
1724.15
1753.58
1783.01
1812.44
1841.87
1871.30
1.86
∑𝑡= | ′
− | ,
𝐴 = = = .
∑𝑡= ′
− .
= = = ,
′
− ,
|𝑃 |= × %= × %= , %
∑𝑡= |𝑃 | , %
𝐴𝑃 = = = , %
For α= 0.5 and α= 0.7, the method is same using the formula of MAD, MSE, and
choosen.
Table 4.48. MAD, MSE, and MAPE Calculation (α =0.3)
α = 0.3
54.87 54.87 3011.22 3.21% 3.21%
89.91 89.91 8083.41 5.05% 5.05%
-135.01 135.01 18228.17 -8.32% 8.32%
-714.94 714.94 511132.63 -72.95% 72.95%
58.88 58.88 3467.27 4.45% 4.45%
331.16 331.16 109667.75 21.13% 21.13%
53.48 53.48 2860.30 3.73% 3.73%
222.39 222.39 49458.20 13.82% 13.82%
146.79 146.79 21547.89 8.91% 8.91%
1.87
Table 4.48. MAD, MSE, and MAPE Calculation (α =0.3) (Continued)
-50.99 50.99 2599.69 -3.31% 3.31%

210.14 210.14 44159.09 11.78% 11.78%
-24.10 24.10 580.67 -1.43% 1.43%
38.58 38.58 1488.79 2.18% 2.18%
96.78 96.78 9366.09 5.16% 5.16%
35.11 35.11 1232.42 1.84% 1.84%
-798.68 798.68 637883.97 -70.31% 70.31%
68.99 68.99 4760.24 4.42% 4.42%
213.25 213.25 45474.81 12.43% 12.43%
SUM TOTAL
-103.36 3344.05 1475002.60 254.44%
AVERAGE
185.78 81944.59 14.14%
MAD MSE MAPE
α = 0.5
34.00 34.00 1156.00 1.99% 1.99%
60.50 60.50 3660.25 3.40% 3.40%
-181.00 181.00 32761.00 -11.15% 11.15%
-680.13 680.13 462570.02 -69.40% 69.40%
350.13 350.13 122587.52 26.48% 26.48%
423.16 423.16 179061.21 27.00% 27.00%
-42.38 42.38 1795.64 -2.96% 2.96%
159.84 159.84 25547.53 9.93% 9.93%
34.43 34.43 1185.40 2.09% 2.09%
-152.53 152.53 23265.19 -9.90% 9.90%
190.86 190.86 36428.79 10.70% 10.70%
-111.00 111.00 12321.98 -6.58% 6.58%
15.28 15.28 233.47 0.87% 0.87%
75.03 75.03 5629.63 4.00% 4.00%
-8.79 8.79 77.25 -0.46% 0.46%
-827.55 827.55 684833.68 -72.85% 72.85%
368.65 368.65 135903.18 23.63% 23.63%
306.54 306.54 93965.04 17.87% 17.87%
SUM TOTAL
1.88
Table 4.49. MAD, MSE, and MAPE Calculation (α =0.5) (Continued)
15.04 4021.778023 1822982.77 301.26%

AVERAGE
223.43 101276.82 16.74%
MAD MSE MAPE
α = 0.7
31.30 31.30 979.69 1.83% 1.83%
65.82 65.82 4332.27 3.69% 3.69%
-170.43 170.43 29044.68 -10.50% 10.50%
-647.83 647.83 419682.15 -66.10% 66.10%
386.59 386.59 149452.58 29.24% 29.24%
312.96 312.96 97943.44 19.97% 19.97%
-139.27 139.27 19395.49 -9.71% 9.71%
149.72 149.72 22417.00 9.31% 9.31%
27.62 27.62 762.75 1.68% 1.68%
-130.25 130.25 16966.19 -8.46% 8.46%
233.56 233.56 54551.11 13.09% 13.09%
-102.74 102.74 10555.51 -6.09% 6.09%
57.74 57.74 3333.38 3.27% 3.27%
103.19 103.19 10647.73 5.50% 5.50%
15.22 15.22 231.54 0.80% 0.80%
-789.66 789.66 623558.17 -69.51% 69.51%
449.34 449.34 201903.13 28.80% 28.80%
220.07 220.07 48431.21 12.83% 12.83%
SUM TOTAL
72.95 4033.292795 1714188.02 300.39%
AVERAGE
224.07 95232.67 16.69%
MAD MSE MAPE
Comparation α = 0.3 α = 0.5 α = 0.7

MAD 185.78 223.43 224.07
MSE 81944.59 101276.82 95232.67
MAPE 14.14% 16.74% 16.69%
1.89
Based on the figure above, the alpha (∝ that have the lowest values of error is ∝
= . . Because of it has the lowest error than the other two alpha (∝ , so it is the
4.2.7.3. Validation
 Verification
In order to show the control chart, there are several calculation. First, calculate
the value of (dt'-dt)-(d(t-1)'-d(t-1)) as a value of MRt. After that, find out the
value of MR using formula as belows.
∑𝑡=
= = ,
−
= , × , = ,
=− , × , =− ,
1.90

-89.91 -54.87 -35.03 35.03
135.01 -89.91 224.92 224.92
714.94 135.01 579.92 579.92
-58.88 714.94 -773.82 773.82
-331.16 -58.88 -272.28 272.28
-53.48 -331.16 277.68 277.68
-222.39 -53.48 -168.91 168.91
-146.79 -222.39 75.60 75.60
50.99 -146.79 197.78 197.78
-210.14 50.99 -261.13 261.13
24.10 -210.14 234.24 234.24
-38.58 24.10 -62.68 62.68
-96.78 -38.58 -58.19 58.19
-35.11 -96.78 61.67 61.67
798.68 -35.11 833.78 833.78
-68.99 798.68 -867.67 867.67
-213.25 -68.99 -144.25 144.25
MR 301.74
UCL 802.6256364
LCL -802.6256364
LCL
35.03 802.63 535.0838 267.5419 -802.63 - - 0
535.084 267.5418788
224.92 802.63 535.0838 267.5419 -802.63 - - 0
535.084 267.5418788
579.92 802.63 535.0838 267.5419 -802.63 - - 0
535.084 267.5418788
773.82 802.63 535.0838 267.5419 -802.63 - - 0
535.084 267.5418788
272.28 802.63 535.0838 267.5419 -802.63 - - 0
535.084 267.5418788
277.68 802.63 535.0838 267.5419 -802.63 - - 0
535.084 267.5418788
168.91 802.63 535.0838 267.5419 -802.63 - - 0
535.084 267.5418788
1.91
75.60 802.63 535.0838 267.5419 -802.63 - - 0

535.084 267.5418788
197.78 802.63 535.0838 267.5419 -802.63 - - 0
535.084 267.5418788
261.13 802.63 535.0838 267.5419 -802.63 - - 0
535.084 267.5418788
234.24 802.63 535.0838 267.5419 -802.63 - - 0
535.084 267.5418788
62.68 802.63 535.0838 267.5419 -802.63 - - 0
535.084 267.5418788
58.19 802.63 535.0838 267.5419 -802.63 - - 0
535.084 267.5418788
61.67 802.63 535.0838 267.5419 -802.63 - - 0
535.084 267.5418788
833.78 802.63 535.0838 267.5419 -802.63 - - 0
535.084 267.5418788
867.67 802.63 535.0838 267.5419 -802.63 - - 0
535.084 267.5418788
144.25 802.63 535.0838 267.5419 -802.63 - - 0
535.084 267.5418788
Figure 4.15. DES Browns Verification Test
From the figure above, it showed that the graph is out of control. Since the out of
control are two points, it is slightly pass the verification test.
1.92
out first. The calculation could be seen in the table below. To find out the value of MAD, using previous one. The tracking signal could
be found by using formula as belows.
∑𝑡= ′
− ,
𝑖 𝑖 = = = =
𝐴 𝐴 ,
Period dt dt' dt-dt' RSFE |dt-dt'| Cum |dt-dt'| MAD Tracking Signal UCL CL LCL
Cumulative
1 1708.00 1653.13 54.87 54.87 54.87 54.87 54.87463 1.00 4 0 -4
2 1782.00 1692.09 89.91 144.78 89.91 144.78 72.39119 2.00 4 0 -4
3 1623.00 1758.01 -135.01 9.77 135.01 279.79 93.26471 0.10 4 0 -4
4 980.00 1694.94 -714.94 -705.16 714.94 994.73 248.6824 -2.84 4 0 -4
5 1322.00 1263.12 58.88 -646.28 58.88 1053.61 210.7226 -3.07 4 0 -4
6 1567.00 1235.84 331.16 -315.12 331.16 1384.77 230.7957 -1.37 4 0 -4
7 1434.00 1380.52 53.48 -261.64 53.48 1438.26 205.4651 -1.27 4 0 -4
8 1609.00 1386.61 222.39 -39.25 222.39 1660.65 207.581 -0.19 4 0 -4
9 1648.00 1501.21 146.79 107.55 146.79 1807.44 200.8267 0.54 4 0 -4
10 1540.00 1590.99 -50.99 56.56 50.99 1858.43 185.8427 0.30 4 0 -4
11 1784.00 1573.86 210.14 266.70 210.14 2068.57 188.0516 1.42 4 0 -4
12 1688.00 1712.10 -24.10 242.60 24.10 2092.66 174.3887 1.39 4 0 -4
1.93
13 1766.00 1727.42 38.58 281.19 38.58 2131.25 163.9423 1.72 4 0 -4

14 1876.00 1779.22 96.78 377.97 96.78 2228.03 159.1449 2.37 4 0 -4
15 1906.00 1870.89 35.11 413.07 35.11 2263.13 150.8756 2.74 4 0 -4
16 1136.00 1934.68 -798.68 -385.61 798.68 3061.81 191.3631 -2.02 4 0 -4
17 1560.00 1491.01 68.99 -316.61 68.99 3130.80 184.165 -1.72 4 0 -4
18 1715.00 1501.75 213.25 -103.36 213.25 3344.05 185.7807 -0.56 4 0 -4
Figure 4.16. DES Browns Tracking Signal - Brown
From the figure above, it showed that the graph is in control. So, it is slightly pass the tracking signal test.
1.94
4.2.8. Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) – Holt Method
In this part,the double exponential smooting (DES) will be forecasted by using other
method, which is Brown Method.
In this forecast method, there are two kinds, such DES-Holt by using α = 0.2 γ =
0,3 and α = 0.5 γ = 0.6. In the comparation of error measurement, there will be
chosen the smallest error. In order to get the formula of forecast demand, there are
several things should be calculated first, such as St and bt. How to calculate those
formula as belows. Here are example of calculation with α = 0.2 γ = 0,3.
=∝ + −∝ 𝑡− + 𝑡−
= . + . − =
= − 𝑡− + − 𝑡− = . − + . =
𝑡+ = + = + =
To find the forecast demand by using α = 0.5 γ = 0.6 , using formula like as above.
The forecast demand shown as belows.
Table 4.55. DES – Holt Forecast Demand
Month Demand (dt) α = 0.2 γ = 0,3 α = 0.5 γ = 0,6

(In Units) St bt Ft St bt Ft
January-16 1620 1620 54 1620 54
February-16 1674 1674 54 1674 54
March-16 1708 1724.00 52.80 1728.00 1718.00 48.00 1728.00
April-16 1782 1777.84 53.11 1776.80 1774.00 52.80 1766.00
May-16 1623 1789.36 40.63 1830.95 1724.90 -8.34 1826.80
June-16 980 1660.00 -10.36 1830.00 1348.28 -229.31 1716.56
July-16 1322 1584.11 -30.02 1649.63 1220.49 -168.40 1118.97
August-16 1567 1556.67 -29.25 1554.08 1309.54 -13.93 1052.09
September-16 1434 1508.73 -34.85 1527.42 1364.81 27.59 1295.62
October-16 1609 1500.91 -26.75 1473.88 1500.70 92.57 1392.40
November-16 1648 1508.93 -16.32 1474.16 1620.63 108.99 1593.27
December-16 1540 1502.09 -13.47 1492.61 1634.81 52.10 1729.62
January-17 1784 1547.69 4.25 1488.62 1735.46 81.23 1686.91
1.95
Table 4.55. DES – Holt Forecast Demand (Continued)
February-17 1688 1579.16 12.41 1551.94 1752.34 42.62 1816.68

March-17 1766 1626.46 22.88 1591.57 1780.48 33.93 1794.96
April-17 1876 1694.67 36.48 1649.34 1845.21 52.41 1814.42
May-17 1906 1766.12 46.97 1731.15 1901.81 54.92 1897.62
June-17 1136 1677.67 6.35 1813.09 1546.37 -191.30 1956.73
July-17 1560 1659.21 -1.10 1684.02 1457.53 -129.82 1355.07
August-17 1715 1669.49 2.32 1658.12 1521.36 -13.63 1327.72
September-17 1671.81 1507.73
October-17 1674.13 1494.09
November-17 1676.45 1480.46
December-17 1678.76 1466.83
January-18 1681.08 1453.20
February-18 1683.40 1439.57
dt’| should be found out and calculate the average of it. Here are example calculation
of α = 0.2 γ = 0,3.
∑𝑡= | ′
− | ,
𝐴 = = = ,
∑𝑡= ′
− .
= = = ,
′
−
|𝑃 |= × %= × %= , %
∑𝑡= |𝑃 | , %
𝐴𝑃 = = = , %
1.96
For α = 0.5 γ = 0.6., the method is same using the formula of MAD, MSE, and
choosen.
Table 4.56. MAD, MSE, and MAPE (α = 0.2 γ = 0,3)
α = 0.2 γ = 0,3
-20.00 20.00 400.00 -1.17% 1.17%
5.20 5.20 27.04 0.29% 0.29%
-207.95 207.95 43244.03 - 12.81%
12.81%
-850.00 850.00 722494.02 - 86.73%
86.73%
-327.63 327.63 107342.91 - 24.78%
24.78%
12.92 12.92 166.85 0.82% 0.82%
-93.42 93.42 8727.03 -6.51% 6.51%
135.12 135.12 18256.90 8.40% 8.40%
173.84 173.84 30220.46 10.55% 10.55%
47.39 47.39 2245.59 3.08% 3.08%
295.38 295.38 87250.72 16.56% 16.56%
136.06 136.06 18510.99 8.06% 8.06%
174.43 174.43 30425.82 9.88% 9.88%
226.66 226.66 51376.63 12.08% 12.08%
174.85 174.85 30573.07 9.17% 9.17%
-677.09 677.09 458450.26 - 59.60%
59.60%
-124.02 124.02 15380.24 -7.95% 7.95%
56.88 56.88 3235.55 3.32% 3.32%
SUM TOTAL
-861.38 3738.834 1628328.11 281.78%
AVERAGE
207.71 90462.67 15.65%
MAD MSE MAPE
1.97
Table 4.57. MAD, MSE, and MAPE (α = 0.5 γ = 0,6)
α = 0.5 γ = 0,6
-20.00 20.00 400.00 -1.17% 1.17%
16.00 16.00 256.00 0.90% 0.90%
-203.80 203.80 41534.44 - 12.56%
12.56%
-736.56 736.56 542520.63 - 75.16%
75.16%
203.03 203.03 41220.37 15.36% 15.36%
514.91 514.91 265136.02 32.86% 32.86%
138.38 138.38 19149.67 9.65% 9.65%
216.60 216.60 46916.42 13.46% 13.46%
54.73 54.73 2995.51 3.32% 3.32%
-189.62 189.62 35957.08 - 12.31%
12.31%
97.09 97.09 9425.72 5.44% 5.44%
-128.68 128.68 16559.79 -7.62% 7.62%
-28.96 28.96 838.97 -1.64% 1.64%
61.58 61.58 3792.66 3.28% 3.28%
8.38 8.38 70.29 0.44% 0.44%
-820.73 820.73 673600.34 - 72.25%
72.25%
204.93 204.93 41996.36 13.14% 13.14%
387.28 387.28 149987.32 22.58% 22.58%
SUM TOTAL
-225.44 4031.289 1892357.58 303.14%
AVERAGE
223.96 105130.98 16.84%
MAD MSE MAPE
Comparation α = 0.2 γ = 0,3 α = 0.5 γ = 0,6

MAD 207.71 223.96
MSE 90462.67 105130.98
MAPE 15.65% 16.84%
1.98
Based on the figure above, the alpha (∝ that have the lowest values of error is α =
0.2 γ = 0.3. Because of it has the lowest error than the other alternative, so it is the
4.2.8.3. Validation
 Verification
∑𝑡=
= = ,
−
= , × , = ,
=− , × , =− ,
1.99

-5.20 20.00 -25.20 25.20
207.95 -5.20 213.15 213.15
850.00 207.95 642.04 642.04
327.63 850.00 -522.36 522.36
-12.92 327.63 -340.55 340.55
93.42 -12.92 106.34 106.34
-135.12 93.42 -228.54 228.54
-173.84 -135.12 -38.72 38.72
-47.39 -173.84 126.45 126.45
-295.38 -47.39 -247.99 247.99
-136.06 -295.38 159.33 159.33
-174.43 -136.06 -38.37 38.37
-226.66 -174.43 -52.23 52.23
-174.85 -226.66 51.81 51.81
677.09 -174.85 851.94 851.94
124.02 677.09 -553.07 553.07
-56.88 124.02 -180.90 180.90
MR 257.59
UCL 685.1867597
LCL -685.1867597
LCL
25.20 685.19 456.791 228.395 -685.19 - - 0
2 6 456.791 228.39559
213.15 685.19 456.791 228.395 -685.19 - - 0
2 6 456.791 228.39559
642.04 685.19 456.791 228.395 -685.19 - - 0
2 6 456.791 228.39559
522.36 685.19 456.791 228.395 -685.19 - - 0
2 6 456.791 228.39559
340.55 685.19 456.791 228.395 -685.19 - - 0
2 6 456.791 228.39559
106.34 685.19 456.791 228.395 -685.19 - - 0
2 6 456.791 228.39559
228.54 685.19 456.791 228.395 -685.19 - - 0
2 6 456.791 228.39559
1.100
38.72 685.19 456.791 228.395 -685.19 - - 0

2 6 456.791 228.39559
126.45 685.19 456.791 228.395 -685.19 - - 0
2 6 456.791 228.39559
247.99 685.19 456.791 228.395 -685.19 - - 0
2 6 456.791 228.39559
159.33 685.19 456.791 228.395 -685.19 - - 0
2 6 456.791 228.39559
38.37 685.19 456.791 228.395 -685.19 - - 0
2 6 456.791 228.39559
52.23 685.19 456.791 228.395 -685.19 - - 0
2 6 456.791 228.39559
51.81 685.19 456.791 228.395 -685.19 - - 0
2 6 456.791 228.39559
851.94 685.19 456.791 228.395 -685.19 - - 0
2 6 456.791 228.39559
553.07 685.19 456.791 228.395 -685.19 - - 0
2 6 456.791 228.39559
180.90 685.19 456.791 228.395 -685.19 - - 0
2 6 456.791 228.39559
Figure 4.17. DES Holt Verification Test
control are one points, it is slightly pass the verification test.
1.101
out first. The calculation could be seen in the table below. To find out the value of MAD, using previous one. The tracking signal could
be found by using formula as belows.
∑𝑡= ′
− −
𝑖 𝑖 = = = =−
𝐴 𝐴
Period dt dt' dt-dt' RSFE |dt-dt'| Cum |dt- MAD Tracking Signal UCL CL LCL
Cumulativ dt'|
e
1 1708.00 1728.00 -20.00 -20.00 20.00 20.00 20 -1.00 4 0 -4
2 1782.00 1776.80 5.20 -14.80 5.20 25.20 12.6 -1.17 4 0 -4
3 1623.00 1830.95 -207.95 -222.75 207.95 233.15 77.7173 -2.87 4 0 -4
3
4 980.00 1830.00 -850.00 -1072.75 850.00 1083.15 270.787 -3.96 4 0 -4
1
5 1322.00 1649.63 -327.63 -1400.38 327.63 1410.78 282.156 -4.96 4 0 -4
2
6 1567.00 1554.08 12.92 -1387.46 12.92 1423.70 237.283 -5.85 4 0 -4
7 1434.00 1527.42 -93.42 -1480.88 93.42 1517.12 216.730 -6.83 4 0 -4
9
8 1609.00 1473.88 135.12 -1345.76 135.12 1652.23 206.529 -6.52 4 0 -4
3
1.102
9 1648.00 1474.16 173.84 -1171.92 173.84 1826.07 202.897 -5.78 4 0 -4

2
10 1540.00 1492.61 47.39 -1124.54 47.39 1873.46 187.346 -6.00 4 0 -4
2
11 1784.00 1488.62 295.38 -829.15 295.38 2168.84 197.167 -4.21 4 0 -4
7
12 1688.00 1551.94 136.06 -693.10 136.06 2304.90 192.075 -3.61 4 0 -4
13 1766.00 1591.57 174.43 -518.67 174.43 2479.33 190.717 -2.72 4 0 -4
7
14 1876.00 1649.34 226.66 -292.00 226.66 2705.99 193.285 -1.51 4 0 -4
3
15 1906.00 1731.15 174.85 -117.15 174.85 2880.85 192.056 -0.61 4 0 -4
4
16 1136.00 1813.09 -677.09 -794.24 677.09 3557.94 222.370 -3.57 4 0 -4
9
17 1560.00 1684.02 -124.02 -918.26 124.02 3681.95 216.585 -4.24 4 0 -4
4
18 1715.00 1658.12 56.88 -861.38 56.88 3738.83 207.713 -4.15 4 0 -4
1.103
Figure 4.18. DES Holt Tracking Signal - Brown
control are one points, it is slightly pass the verification test.
4.2.9. Cyclic Method

Cyclic method is one of regression analysis. The calculation of forecasting is
showed as belows.
In this case, assumed that N = 3, so the value of radians is 120t.
𝜋
=
Then, calculate the value as like in the table, and the value of dt’ is calculated by
formula as below.
′
= + + sin
1.104
Table 4.62. Cyclic Forecast Demand
MONTH t dt sin(120t) sin^2(120t) cos(120t) cos^2(120t) sin(120t)cos(120t) dt.sin(120t) dt.cos(120t) dt' or Ft

January-16 1 1620 0.87 0.75 -0.5 0.25 -0.43 1402.96 -810.00 1650.45
February-16 2 1674 -0.87 0.75 -0.5 0.25 0.43 -1449.73 -837.00 1688.73
March-16 3 1708 0.00 0.00 1 1 0.00 0.00 1708.00 1427.36
April-16 4 1782 0.87 0.75 -0.5 0.25 -0.43 1543.26 -891.00 1650.45
May-16 5 1623 -0.87 0.75 -0.5 0.25 0.43 -1405.56 -811.50 1688.73
June-16 6 980 0.00 0.00 1 1 0.00 0.00 980.00 1427.36
July-16 7 1322 0.87 0.75 -0.5 0.25 -0.43 1144.89 -661.00 1650.45
August-16 8 1567 -0.87 0.75 -0.5 0.25 0.43 -1357.06 -783.50 1688.73
September-16 9 1434 0.00 0.00 1 1 0.00 0.00 1434.00 1427.36
October-16 10 1609 0.87 0.75 -0.5 0.25 -0.43 1393.43 -804.50 1650.45
November-16 11 1648 -0.87 0.75 -0.5 0.25 0.43 -1427.21 -824.00 1688.73
December-16 12 1540 0.00 0.00 1 1 0.00 0.00 1540.00 1427.36
January-17 13 1784 0.87 0.75 -0.5 0.25 -0.43 1544.99 -892.00 1650.45
February-17 14 1688 -0.87 0.75 -0.5 0.25 0.43 -1461.85 -844.00 1688.73
March-17 15 1766 0.00 0.00 1 1 0.00 0.00 1766.00 1427.36
April-17 16 1876 0.87 0.75 -0.5 0.25 -0.43 1624.66 -938.00 1650.45
May-17 17 1906 -0.87 0.75 -0.5 0.25 0.43 -1650.64 -953.00 1688.73
June-17 18 1136 0.00 0.00 1 1 0.00 0.00 1136.00 1427.36
July-17 19 1560 0.87 0.75 -0.5 0.25 -0.43 1351.00 -780.00 1650.45
August-17 20 1715 -0.87 0.75 -0.5 0.25 0.43 -1485.23 -857.50 1688.73
SUM 31938 0.00 10.5 -1 9.5 0.00 -232.09 -3123
September-17 21 0.00 0.00 1 1 0.00 1427.36
1.105
Table 4.62. Cyclic Forecast Demand (Continued)
October-17 22 0.87 0.75 -0.5 0.25 -0.43 1650.45

November-17 23 -0.87 0.75 -0.5 0.25 0.43 1688.73
December-17 24 0.00 0.00 1 1 0.00 1427.36
January-18 25 0.87 0.75 -0.5 0.25 -0.43 1650.45
February-18 26 -0.87 0.75 -0.5 0.25 0.43 1688.73
Table 4.63. Value of a, b, and c
A 1588,845
B -161,49
C -22,1
How to calculate the value of a, b, and c showed as belows.
∑ = . + ∑ cos + ∑ sin
𝑡= 𝑡= 𝑡=
= −
1.106
∑ cos = ∑ cos + ∑ + ∑ sin cos
𝑡= 𝑡= 𝑡= 𝑡=
− =− + ,
∑ sin = ∑ sin + ∑ cos sin + ∑ 𝑖

𝑡= 𝑡= 𝑡= 𝑡=
− , = ,
By substitute or eliminating the equations above, the values of a,b,and c could be known.
of MAD, the total value of |dt-dt’| should be found out and calculate the average of it.
∑𝑡= | ′
− | ,
𝐴 = = = ,
of it.
∑𝑡= ′
− ,
= = = ,
1.107
′
− ,
|𝑃 |= × %= × %= , %
∑𝑡= |𝑃 | , %
𝐴𝑃 = = = , %
Table 4.64. MAD, MSE, and MAPE Calculation

-30.45 30.45 927.25 -1.88% 1.88%
-14.73 14.73 216.95 -0.88% 0.88%
280.65 280.65 78761.62 16.43% 16.43%
131.55 131.55 17305.18 7.38% 7.38%
-65.73 65.73 4320.32 -4.05% 4.05%
-447.36 447.36 200126.50 - 45.65%
45.65%
-328.45 328.45 107879.95 - 24.84%
24.84%
-121.73 121.73 14817.99 -7.77% 7.77%
6.64 6.64 44.16 0.46% 0.46%
-41.45 41.45 1718.17 -2.58% 2.58%
-40.73 40.73 1658.86 -2.47% 2.47%
112.65 112.65 12688.90 7.31% 7.31%
133.55 133.55 17835.38 7.49% 7.49%
-0.73 0.73 0.53 -0.04% 0.04%
338.65 338.65 114680.44 19.18% 19.18%
225.55 225.55 50872.42 12.02% 12.02%
217.27 217.27 47206.62 11.40% 11.40%
-291.36 291.36 84887.74 - 25.65%
25.65%
-90.45 90.45 8181.35 -5.80% 5.80%
26.27 26.27 690.16 1.53% 1.53%
SUM TOTAL
-0.39 2945.93 764820.48 204.81%
AVERAGE
147.30 38241.02 10.24%
MAD MSE MAPE
1.108
4.2.9.3. Validation
 Verification
In order to show the control chart, there are several calculation. First, calculate
the value of (dt'-dt)-(d(t-1)'-d(t-1)) as a value of MRt. After that, find out the
value of MR using formula as belows.
∑𝑡=
= = ,
−
= , × , = ,
=− , × , =− ,

14.73 30.45 -15.72 15.72
-280.65 14.73 -295.37 295.37
-131.55 -280.65 149.10 149.10
65.73 -131.55 197.28 197.28
447.36 65.73 381.63 381.63
328.45 447.36 -118.90 118.90
121.73 328.45 -206.72 206.72
-6.64 121.73 -128.37 128.37
41.45 -6.64 48.10 48.10
40.73 41.45 -0.72 0.72
1.109
-112.65 40.73 -153.37 153.37

-133.55 -112.65 -20.90 20.90
0.73 -133.55 134.28 134.28
-338.65 0.73 -339.37 339.37
-225.55 -338.65 113.10 113.10
-217.27 -225.55 8.28 8.28
291.36 -217.27 508.63 508.63
90.45 291.36 -200.90 200.90
-26.27 90.45 -116.72 116.72
MR 165.13
UCL 439.2458
LCL -439.2458
LCL
15.72 439.25 292.8305 146.4153 -439.25 - - 0
292.831 146.415267
295.37 439.25 292.8305 146.4153 -439.25 - - 0
292.831 146.415267
149.10 439.25 292.8305 146.4153 -439.25 - - 0
292.831 146.415267
197.28 439.25 292.8305 146.4153 -439.25 - - 0
292.831 146.415267
381.63 439.25 292.8305 146.4153 -439.25 - - 0
292.831 146.415267
118.90 439.25 292.8305 146.4153 -439.25 - - 0
292.831 146.415267
206.72 439.25 292.8305 146.4153 -439.25 - - 0
292.831 146.415267
128.37 439.25 292.8305 146.4153 -439.25 - - 0
292.831 146.415267
48.10 439.25 292.8305 146.4153 -439.25 - - 0
292.831 146.415267
0.72 439.25 292.8305 146.4153 -439.25 - - 0
292.831 146.415267
153.37 439.25 292.8305 146.4153 -439.25 - - 0
292.831 146.415267
20.90 439.25 292.8305 146.4153 -439.25 - - 0
292.831 146.415267
134.28 439.25 292.8305 146.4153 -439.25 - - 0
292.831 146.415267
1.110
339.37 439.25 292.8305 146.4153 -439.25 - - 0

292.831 146.415267
113.10 439.25 292.8305 146.4153 -439.25 - - 0
292.831 146.415267
8.28 439.25 292.8305 146.4153 -439.25 - - 0
292.831 146.415267
508.63 439.25 292.8305 146.4153 -439.25 - - 0
292.831 146.415267
200.90 439.25 292.8305 146.4153 -439.25 - - 0
292.831 146.415267
116.72 439.25 292.8305 146.4153 -439.25 - - 0
292.831 146.415267
Cyclic Verification Test

600.00
400.00
200.00
0.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
-200.00
-400.00
-600.00
Figure 4.19. Cyclic Verification Test
control is one point, it is slightly pass the verification test.
belows.
1.111
∑𝑡= ′
− − ,
𝑖 𝑖 = = = =−
𝐴 𝐴 ,
Table 4.67 Tracking Signal Calculation
Period dt dt’ dt-dt’ RSFE |dt-dt'| Cum MAD Tracking UCL CL LCL
Cumulative |dt-dt'| Signal
1 1620.00 1650.45 -30.45 -30.45 30.45 30.45 30.45084 -1.00 4 0 -4
2 1674.00 1688.73 -14.73 -45.18 14.73 45.18 22.59 -2.00 4 0 -4
3 1708.00 1427.36 280.65 235.47 280.65 325.83 108.6083 2.17 4 0 -4
4 1782.00 1650.45 131.55 367.01 131.55 457.37 114.3435 3.21 4 0 -4
5 1623.00 1688.73 -65.73 301.29 65.73 523.10 104.6207 2.88 4 0 -4
6 980.00 1427.36 -447.36 -146.07 447.36 970.46 161.7431 -0.90 4 0 -4
7 1322.00 1650.45 -328.45 -474.52 328.45 1298.91 185.5585 -2.56 4 0 -4
8 1567.00 1688.73 -121.73 -596.25 121.73 1420.64 177.5798 -3.36 4 0 -4
9 1434.00 1427.36 6.64 -589.61 6.64 1427.28 158.587 -3.72 4 0 -4
10 1609.00 1650.45 -41.45 -631.06 41.45 1468.73 146.8734 -4.30 4 0 -4
11 1648.00 1688.73 -40.73 -671.79 40.73 1509.46 137.2239 -4.90 4 0 -4
12 1540.00 1427.36 112.65 -559.14 112.65 1622.11 135.1757 -4.14 4 0 -4
13 1784.00 1650.45 133.55 -425.59 133.55 1755.66 135.0506 -3.15 4 0 -4
14 1688.00 1688.73 -0.73 -426.32 0.73 1756.39 125.4562 -3.40 4 0 -4
15 1766.00 1427.36 338.65 -87.68 338.65 2095.03 139.6688 -0.63 4 0 -4
1.112
Table 4.67 Tracking Signal Calculation (Continued)
16 1876.00 1650.45 225.55 137.87 225.55 2320.58 145.0363 0.95 4 0 -4

17 1906.00 1688.73 217.27 355.15 217.27 2537.85 149.2854 2.38 4 0 -4
18 1136.00 1427.36 -291.36 63.79 291.36 2829.21 157.1781 0.41 4 0 -4
19 1560.00 1650.45 -90.45 -26.66 90.45 2919.66 153.6662 -0.17 4 0 -4
20 1715.00 1688.73 26.27 -0.39 26.27 2945.93 147.2964 0.00 4 0 -4
Cyclic Tracking Signal - Brown

5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
-1.00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
-2.00
-3.00
-4.00
-5.00
-6.00
Figure 4.20. Cyclic Tracking Signal - Brown
From the figure above, it showed that the graph is out of control. Since the out of control is two point, it is slightly pass the tracking
signal test.
1.113
4.2.10. Linear Cyclic Method
Linear Cyclic method is one of regression analysis. The calculation of forecasting
is showed as belows.
In this case, assumed that N = 2, so the value of radians is 120t.
𝜋
=
Then, calculate the value as like in the table, and the value of dt’ is calculated by
formula as below.
′
= + + cos + sin
Table 4.68. Linear Cyclic Forecast Demand
Month t dt sin(180t) sin^2(180t) cos(180t) cos^2(180t) sin(180t).cos(180t)
January-16 1 1620 0 0 -1 1 0
February-16 2 1674 0 0 1 1 0
March-16 3 1708 0 0 -1 1 0
April-16 4 1782 0 0 1 1 0
May-16 5 1623 0 0 -1 1 0
June-16 6 980 0 0 1 1 0
July-16 7 1322 0 0 -1 1 0
August-16 8 1567 0 0 1 1 0
September- 9 1434 0 0 -1 1 0
16
October-16 10 1609 0 0 1 1 0
November- 11 1648 0 0 -1 1 0
16
December- 12 1540 0 0 1 1 0
16
January-17 13 1784 0 0 -1 1 0
February-17 14 1688 0 0 1 1 0
March-17 15 1766 0 0 -1 1 0
April-17 16 1876 0 0 1 1 0
May-17 17 1906 0 0 -1 1 0
June-17 18 1136 0 0 1 1 0
July-17 19 1560 0 0 -1 1 0
1.114
Table 4.68. Linear Cyclic Forecast Demand (Continued)
August-17 20 1715 0 0 1 1 0
SUM 210 31938 0 0 0 20 0

Sep-17 21
Oct-17 22
Nov-17 23
Dec-17 24
Jan-18 25
Feb-18 26
Table 4.69. Linear Cyclic Forecast Demand (continued)
dt.sin(180t) dt.cos(180t) t.sin(180t) t.cos(180t) t.dt t^2 dt'
0 -1620 0 -1 1620 1 1564.01

0 1674 0 2 3348 4 1569.74
0 -1708 0 -3 5124 9 1510.82
0 1782 0 4 7128 16 1581.2
0 -1623 0 -5 8115 25 1586.93
0 980 0 6 5880 36 1528.01
0 -1322 0 -7 9254 49 1598.39
0 1567 0 8 12536 64 1604.12
0 -1434 0 -9 12906 81 1545.2
0 1609 0 10 16090 100 1615.58
0 -1648 0 -11 18128 121 1621.31
0 1540 0 12 18480 144 1562.39
0 -1784 0 -13 23192 169 1632.77
0 1688 0 14 23632 196 1638.5
0 -1766 0 -15 26490 225 1579.58
0 1876 0 16 30016 256 1649.96
0 -1906 0 -17 32402 289 1655.69
0 1136 0 18 20448 324 1596.77
0 -1560 0 -19 29640 361 1667.15
0 1715 0 20 34300 400 1672.88
0 -804 0 10 338729 2870

1700.16
1619.69
1711.62
1.115
Table 4.69. Linear Cyclic Forecast Demand (Continued)
1631.15
1723.08
1642.61
Table 4.70. The Value of a, b, and c
a 1536.73
b 5.73
c -43.1
∑ = . + ∑ + ∑ cos + ∑ sin
𝑡= 𝑡= 𝑡= 𝑡=
= +
∑ .t = ∑t+ ∑ + ∑ . cos + ∑ sin

𝑡= 𝑡= 𝑡= 𝑡= 𝑡=
= + +
∑ cos
𝑡=
= ∑ cos
𝑡=
+ ∑ . cos
𝑡=
+ ∑ + ∑ sin cos
𝑡= 𝑡=
− = +
By substitute or eliminating the equations above, the values of a,b,and c could be

known.
1.116
∑𝑡= | ′
− | ,
𝐴 = = = ,
∑𝑡= ′
− ,
= = = ,
′
− ,
|𝑃 |= × %= × %= , %
∑𝑡= |𝑃 | , %
𝐴𝑃 = = = , %
Table 4.71. MAD,MSE, and MAPE Calculation

55.99 55.99 3134.88 3.46% 3.46%
104.26 104.26 10870.15 6.23% 6.23%
197.18 197.18 38879.95 11.54% 11.54%
200.80 200.80 40320.64 11.27% 11.27%
36.07 36.07 1301.04 2.22% 2.22%
-548.01 548.01 300314.96 - 55.92%
55.92%
-276.39 276.39 76391.43 - 20.91%
20.91%
-37.12 37.12 1377.89 -2.37% 2.37%
-111.20 111.20 12365.44 -7.75% 7.75%
-6.58 6.58 43.30 -0.41% 0.41%
26.69 26.69 712.36 1.62% 1.62%
-22.39 22.39 501.31 -1.45% 1.45%
151.23 151.23 22870.51 8.48% 8.48%
1.117
Table 4.71. MAD,MSE, and MAPE Calculation (Continued)
49.50 49.50 2450.25 2.93% 2.93%

186.42 186.42 34752.42 10.56% 10.56%
226.04 226.04 51094.08 12.05% 12.05%
250.31 250.31 62655.10 13.13% 13.13%
-460.77 460.77 212308.99 - 40.56%
40.56%
-107.15 107.15 11481.12 -6.87% 6.87%
42.12 42.12 1774.09 2.46% 2.46%
SUM TOTAL
-43.00 3096.22 885599.92 222.18%
AVERAGE
154.81 44280.00 11.11%
MAD MSE MAPE
4.2.10.3. Validation
 Verification
∑𝑡=
= = ,
−
= , × , = ,
=− , × , =− ,
1.118

-104.26 -55.99 -48.27 48.27
-197.18 -104.26 -92.92 92.92
-200.80 -197.18 -3.62 3.62
-36.07 -200.80 164.73 164.73
548.01 -36.07 584.08 584.08
276.39 548.01 -271.62 271.62
37.12 276.39 -239.27 239.27
111.20 37.12 74.08 74.08
6.58 111.20 -104.62 104.62
-26.69 6.58 -33.27 33.27
22.39 -26.69 49.08 49.08
-151.23 22.39 -173.62 173.62
-49.50 -151.23 101.73 101.73
-186.42 -49.50 -136.92 136.92
-226.04 -186.42 -39.62 39.62
-250.31 -226.04 -24.27 24.27
460.77 -250.31 711.08 711.08
107.15 460.77 -353.62 353.62
-42.12 107.15 -149.27 149.27
MR 176.62
UCL 469.7966
LCL -469.7966
LCL
48.27 469.80 313.197 156.598 -469.80 - - 0
7 9 313.198 156.5988
7
92.92 469.80 313.197 156.598 -469.80 - - 0
7 9 313.198 156.5988
7
3.62 469.80 313.197 156.598 -469.80 - - 0
7 9 313.198 156.5988
7
164.73 469.80 313.197 156.598 -469.80 - - 0
7 9 313.198 156.5988
7
1.119
584.08 469.80 313.197 156.598 -469.80 - - 0

7 9 313.198 156.5988
7
271.62 469.80 313.197 156.598 -469.80 - - 0
7 9 313.198 156.5988
7
239.27 469.80 313.197 156.598 -469.80 - - 0
7 9 313.198 156.5988
7
74.08 469.80 313.197 156.598 -469.80 - - 0
7 9 313.198 156.5988
7
104.62 469.80 313.197 156.598 -469.80 - - 0
7 9 313.198 156.5988
7
33.27 469.80 313.197 156.598 -469.80 - - 0
7 9 313.198 156.5988
7
49.08 469.80 313.197 156.598 -469.80 - - 0
7 9 313.198 156.5988
7
173.62 469.80 313.197 156.598 -469.80 - - 0
7 9 313.198 156.5988
7
101.73 469.80 313.197 156.598 -469.80 - - 0
7 9 313.198 156.5988
7
136.92 469.80 313.197 156.598 -469.80 - - 0
7 9 313.198 156.5988
7
39.62 469.80 313.197 156.598 -469.80 - - 0
7 9 313.198 156.5988
7
24.27 469.80 313.197 156.598 -469.80 - - 0
7 9 313.198 156.5988
7
711.08 469.80 313.197 156.598 -469.80 - - 0
7 9 313.198 156.5988
7
353.62 469.80 313.197 156.598 -469.80 - - 0
7 9 313.198 156.5988
7
149.27 469.80 313.197 156.598 -469.80 - - 0
7 9 313.198 156.5988
7
1.120
Cyclic Linear Verification Test
800.00
600.00
400.00
200.00
0.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
-200.00
-400.00
-600.00

Figure 4.21. Cyclic Liner Verification Test
From the figure above, it showed that the graph is out of control. So it is
mean that this method is not good enough for predicting future demand.
belows.
∑𝑡= ′
− ,
𝑖 𝑖 = = = =
𝐴 𝐴 ,
Plot the data using the line graph, the result is shown in the figure.
1.121
Period dt dt' dt-dt' RSFE |dt-dt'| Cum MAD Tracking Signal UCL CL LCL
Cumulative |dt-dt'|
1 1620.00 1564.01 55.99 55.99 55.99 55.99 55.99 1.00 4 0 -4
2 1674.00 1569.74 104.26 160.25 104.26 160.25 80.125 2.00 4 0 -4
3 1708.00 1510.82 197.18 357.43 197.18 357.43 119.1433 3.00 4 0 -4
4 1782.00 1581.20 200.80 558.23 200.80 558.23 139.5575 4.00 4 0 -4
5 1623.00 1586.93 36.07 594.30 36.07 594.30 118.86 5.00 4 0 -4
6 980.00 1528.01 -548.01 46.29 548.01 1142.31 190.385 0.24 4 0 -4
7 1322.00 1598.39 -276.39 -230.10 276.39 1418.70 202.6714 -1.14 4 0 -4
8 1567.00 1604.12 -37.12 -267.22 37.12 1455.82 181.9775 -1.47 4 0 -4
9 1434.00 1545.20 -111.20 -378.42 111.20 1567.02 174.1133 -2.17 4 0 -4
10 1609.00 1615.58 -6.58 -385.00 6.58 1573.60 157.36 -2.45 4 0 -4
11 1648.00 1621.31 26.69 -358.31 26.69 1600.29 145.4809 -2.46 4 0 -4
12 1540.00 1562.39 -22.39 -380.70 22.39 1622.68 135.2233 -2.82 4 0 -4
13 1784.00 1632.77 151.23 -229.47 151.23 1773.91 136.4546 -1.68 4 0 -4
14 1688.00 1638.50 49.50 -179.97 49.50 1823.41 130.2436 -1.38 4 0 -4
15 1766.00 1579.58 186.42 6.45 186.42 2009.83 133.9887 0.05 4 0 -4
16 1876.00 1649.96 226.04 232.49 226.04 2235.87 139.7419 1.66 4 0 -4
17 1906.00 1655.69 250.31 482.80 250.31 2486.18 146.2459 3.30 4 0 -4
18 1136.00 1596.77 -460.77 22.03 460.77 2946.95 163.7194 0.13 4 0 -4
19 1560.00 1667.15 -107.15 -85.12 107.15 3054.10 160.7421 -0.53 4 0 -4
20 1715.00 1672.88 42.12 -43.00 42.12 3096.22 154.811 -0.28 4 0 -4
1.122
Cyclic Linear Tracking Signal - Brown
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
-1.00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
-2.00
-3.00
-4.00
-5.00
Figure 4.22. Cyclic Liner Tracking Signal - Brown
4.2.11. Linear Constant Method

Linear Constant method is one of regression analysis. The calculation of forecasting
is showed as belows.
Table 4.75. Linear Constant Forecast Demand
Month t dt t. Dt t^2 dt'
January-16 1 1620 1620 1 1548.61

February-16 2 1674 3348 4 1553.70
March-16 3 1708 5124 9 1558.78
April-16 4 1782 7128 16 1563.86
May-16 5 1623 8115 25 1568.95
June-16 6 980 5880 36 1574.03
July-16 7 1322 9254 49 1579.11
August-16 8 1567 12536 64 1584.19
September-16 9 1434 12906 81 1589.28
October-16 10 1609 16090 100 1594.36
1.123
Table 4.75. Linear Constant Forecast Demand (Contineud)
November-16 11 1648 18128 121 1599.44

December-16 12 1540 18480 144 1604.52
January-17 13 1784 23192 169 1609.61
February-17 14 1688 23632 196 1614.69
March-17 15 1766 26490 225 1619.77
April-17 16 1876 30016 256 1624.85
May-17 17 1906 32402 289 1629.94
June-17 18 1136 20448 324 1635.02
July-17 19 1560 29640 361 1640.10
August-17 20 1715 34300 400 1645.19
SUM 210 31938 338729 2870
September-17 21 1650.27
October-17 22 1655.35
November-17 23 1660.43
December-17 24 1665.52
January-18 25 1670.60
February-18 26 1675.68
Table 4.76. The Value of a and b
b 5,082707
a 1543,53
∑𝑡= . − ∑𝑡= ∑𝑡= . − .

= = = ,
∑𝑡= − ∑𝑡= . −
∑𝑡= ∑𝑡=
= − = − , = ,
The forecast demand formula is like as belows.
′
= +
1.124
∑𝑡= | ′
− | ,
𝐴 = = = ,
∑𝑡= ′
− ,
= = = ,
′
− ,
|𝑃 |= × %= × %= , %
∑𝑡= |𝑃 | , %
𝐴𝑃 = = = , %
1.125
Table 4.77. MAD, MSE, and MAPE Calculation

71.39 71.39 5095.92 4.41% 4.41%
120.30 120.30 14472.81 7.19% 7.19%
149.22 149.22 22266.70 8.74% 8.74%
218.14 218.14 47584.01 12.24% 12.24%
54.05 54.05 2921.93 3.33% 3.33%
-594.03 594.03 352869.05 - 60.62%
60.62%
-257.11 257.11 66105.82 - 19.45%
19.45%
-17.19 17.19 295.61 -1.10% 1.10%
-155.28 155.28 24110.62 - 10.83%
10.83%
14.64 14.64 214.37 0.91% 0.91%
48.56 48.56 2357.94 2.95% 2.95%
-64.52 64.52 4163.35 -4.19% 4.19%
174.39 174.39 30413.00 9.78% 9.78%
73.31 73.31 5374.43 4.34% 4.34%
146.23 146.23 21382.58 8.28% 8.28%
251.15 251.15 63073.87 13.39% 13.39%
276.06 276.06 76210.45 14.48% 14.48%
-499.02 499.02 249021.26 - 43.93%
43.93%
-80.10 80.10 6416.49 -5.13% 5.13%
69.81 69.81 4874.03 4.07% 4.07%
SUM TOTAL
0.00 3334.51 999224.25 239.34%
AVERAGE
166.73 49961.21 11.97%
MAD MSE MAPE
4.2.11.3. Validation
1.126
 Verification
∑𝑡=
= = ,
−
= , × , = ,
=− , × , =− ,

-120.30 -71.39 -48.92 48.92
-149.22 -120.30 -28.92 28.92
-218.14 -149.22 -68.92 68.92
-54.05 -218.14 164.08 164.08
594.03 -54.05 648.08 648.08
257.11 594.03 -336.92 336.92
17.19 257.11 -239.92 239.92
155.28 17.19 138.08 138.08
-14.64 155.28 -169.92 169.92
-48.56 -14.64 -33.92 33.92
64.52 -48.56 113.08 113.08
-174.39 64.52 -238.92 238.92
-73.31 -174.39 101.08 101.08
-146.23 -73.31 -72.92 72.92
-251.15 -146.23 -104.92 104.92
-276.06 -251.15 -24.92 24.92
499.02 -276.06 775.08 775.08
80.10 499.02
1.127
-69.81 80.10
MR 194.62
UCL 517.6964706
LCL -517.6964706
MRt UCL 2/3 1/3 UCL LCL 2/3 1/3 LCL CL

UCL LCL
48.92 517.70 345.131 172.5655 -517.70 - -172.5654902 0
345.131
28.92 517.70 345.131 172.5655 -517.70 - -172.5654902 0
345.131
68.92 517.70 345.131 172.5655 -517.70 - -172.5654902 0
345.131
164.08 517.70 345.131 172.5655 -517.70 - -172.5654902 0
345.131
648.08 517.70 345.131 172.5655 -517.70 - -172.5654902 0
345.131
336.92 517.70 345.131 172.5655 -517.70 - -172.5654902 0
345.131
239.92 517.70 345.131 172.5655 -517.70 - -172.5654902 0
345.131
138.08 517.70 345.131 172.5655 -517.70 - -172.5654902 0
345.131
169.92 517.70 345.131 172.5655 -517.70 - -172.5654902 0
345.131
33.92 517.70 345.131 172.5655 -517.70 - -172.5654902 0
345.131
113.08 517.70 345.131 172.5655 -517.70 - -172.5654902 0
345.131
238.92 517.70 345.131 172.5655 -517.70 - -172.5654902 0
345.131
101.08 517.70 345.131 172.5655 -517.70 - -172.5654902 0
345.131
72.92 517.70 345.131 172.5655 -517.70 - -172.5654902 0
345.131
104.92 517.70 345.131 172.5655 -517.70 - -172.5654902 0
345.131
24.92 517.70 345.131 172.5655 -517.70 - -172.5654902 0
345.131
775.08 517.70 345.131 172.5655 -517.70 - -172.5654902 0
345.131
1.128
Figure 4.23. Constant Liner Verification Test
control is two point, it is slightly pass the verification test.
belows.
∑𝑡= ′
− ,
𝑖 𝑖 = = = =
𝐴 𝐴 ,
Plot the data using the line graph, the result is shown in the figure.
1.129
Cumulative Signal
1 1620.00 1548.61 71.39 71.39 71.39 71.39 71.38571 1.00 4 0 -4
2 1674.00 1553.70 120.30 191.69 120.30 191.69 95.84436 2.00 4 0 -4
3 1708.00 1558.78 149.22 340.91 149.22 340.91 113.6363 3.00 4 0 -4
4 1782.00 1563.86 218.14 559.05 218.14 559.05 139.7617 4.00 4 0 -4
5 1623.00 1568.95 54.05 613.10 54.05 613.10 122.6203 5.00 4 0 -4
6 980.00 1574.03 -594.03 19.07 594.03 1207.13 201.1882 0.09 4 0 -4
7 1322.00 1579.11 -257.11 -238.04 257.11 1464.24 209.1771 -1.14 4 0 -4
8 1567.00 1584.19 -17.19 -255.23 17.19 1481.43 185.1791 -1.38 4 0 -4
9 1434.00 1589.28 -155.28 -410.51 155.28 1636.71 181.8566 -2.26 4 0 -4
10 1609.00 1594.36 14.64 -395.86 14.64 1651.35 165.135 -2.40 4 0 -4
11 1648.00 1599.44 48.56 -347.31 48.56 1699.91 154.5372 -2.25 4 0 -4
12 1540.00 1604.52 -64.52 -411.83 64.52 1764.43 147.0361 -2.80 4 0 -4
13 1784.00 1609.61 174.39 -237.44 174.39 1938.83 149.1405 -1.59 4 0 -4
14 1688.00 1614.69 73.31 -164.13 73.31 2012.14 143.7241 -1.14 4 0 -4
15 1766.00 1619.77 146.23 -17.90 146.23 2158.36 143.891 -0.12 4 0 -4
16 1876.00 1624.85 251.15 233.25 251.15 2409.51 150.5944 1.55 4 0 -4
17 1906.00 1629.94 276.06 509.31 276.06 2685.57 157.9748 3.22 4 0 -4
18 1136.00 1635.02 -499.02 10.29 499.02 3184.59 176.9218 0.06 4 0 -4
19 1560.00 1640.10 -80.10 -69.81 80.10 3264.70 171.8261 -0.41 4 0 -4
20 1715.00 1645.19 69.81 0.00 69.81 3334.51 166.7255 0.00 4 0 -4
1.130
Constant Linear Tracking Signal - Brown
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
-1.00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
-2.00
-3.00
-4.00
-5.00
Figure 4.24. Constant Liner Tracking Signal -Brown
4.3. Best Method based on Calculation
1.131
Table 4.81. Comparation MAD, MSE, MAPE, and Validation Test
NO Method MAD MSE MAPE Verification Test Tracking Signal - Brown

1 LPD 205.95 82700.16 15.32% Not Passed Passed
2 Arithmatic 185.39 63723.83 13.44% Not Passed Not Passed
3 SMA 195.71 77746.08 14.82% Not Passed Not Passed
4 WMA 183.90 78511.25 13.97% Not Passed Not Passed
5 DMA 254.90 134980.04 19.42% Not Passed Not Passed
6 SES 171.86 62485.27 12.75% Not Passed Passed
7 DES BROWN 185.78 81944.59 14.14% Not Passed Passed
8 DES HOLT 207.71 90462.67 15.65% Not Passed Not Passed
9 CYCLIC 147.30 38241.02 10.24% Not Passed Not Passed
10 CONSTANT 166.73 49961.21 11.97% Not Passed Not Passed
LINEAR
11 CYCLIC LINEAR 154.81 44280.00 11.11% Not Passed Not Passed
Lowest Error 147.30 38241.02 10.24%
By comparing the error measurement (MAD, MSE, MAPE) between the forecasting methods, the three rank lowest error is
cyclic method, constant linear, and cyclic linear. After pass the error test, there are validation test. Three of them are not passed the
validation test. To check which one is best method, there are IIDN testing to check the forecasting methods. There are two kinds of
IIDN test, such as normality test and auto correlation test.
1.132
a. Normality Test
The test is to check the data is already normal or not. There are null
hyphotesis (Ho) that the data is normal and the alternatives hyphothesis (H1) is
not normal.
Ho: the data is normal
H1: the data is non normal
Assumed that α = 0.05, so if the p-value is smaller than 0.05, so reject Ho

and the data is not normal. If larger than 0.05, so accept Ho, and the data is
normal.
 IIDN Test for Cyclic
From the figure below, it is shown the probability plot of residual cyclic
method. The p-value is larger than 0.05, so do not reject Ho. It is mean that the
data is normal.
Figure 4.25. Probability Plot of Residual Cyclic
 IIDN Test for Constant Linear
1.133
From the figure below, it is shown the probability plot of residual cyclic method.
The p-value is smaller than 0.05, so reject Ho. It is mean that the data is not normal.
Figure 4.26. Probability Plot of Residual Constant Linear
 IIDN Test for Cyclic Linear
The p-value is smaller than 0.05, so reject Ho. It is mean that the data is not normal.
1.134
Figure 4.27. Probability Plot of Residual Cyclic Linear
a. Autocorrelation Test
The purpose of autocorrelation test is to check whether they are correlation between
data or not (independent). If it is autocorrelation, the data will have the same sign
for some periods. But if it is not autocorrelation, there will be a fast change in the
signs of consecutive residuals.
 Autocorrelation Test for Cyclic Method
From the figure below, it showed that the data is independent (not correlated each
others). There will be a fast change in the signs of consecutive residuals.
1.135
Figure 4.28. Autocorrelation Function for Residual Cyclic
 Autocorrelation Test for Constant Linear Method
From the figure below, it showed that the data is independent (not
correlated each others). There will be a fast change in the signs of consecutive
residuals.
Figure 4.29. Autocorrelation Function for Residual Constant Linear
1.136
 Autocorrelation Test for Cyclic Linear
From the figure below, it showed that the data is independent (not
correlated each others). There will be a fast change in the signs of consecutive
residuals.
Figure 4.30. Autocorrelation Function for Residual Cyclic Linear
b. Standardized Residual Test
The standardized residual is a measure of the strength of the difference between

observed and expected values. If the data is normally distributed, 95% of the data
should be within 2 standard deviations from the mean and does not show any
pattern. If it is greater than the range and show any pattern, so it is an outlier and
not normally distributed.
 Standardized Residual Test for Cyclic Method
From the figure below, it could be seen that all of standardized residual are between
2 and -2. It is not show any pattern. So, the data is normally distributed and has
constant variance.
1.137
Figure 4.31. Versus Fits Cyclic Method
 Standardized Residual Test for Constant Linear Method
2 and -2. But there are pattern between the data. So, the data is considered, not
normally distributed and has not constant variance.
Figure 4.32. Versus Fits Constant Linear Method
1.138
 Standardized Residual Test for Cyclic Linear Method
From the figure below, it could be seen that one of standardized residual are outside
of 2 and -2. There are pattern between the data. So, the data is considered, not
normally distributed and has not constant variance.
Figure 4.33. Versus Fits Cyclic Linear Method
Based on calculation of error (MAD, MSE, MAPE), validation test, and IIDN test,
the best method is cyclic method. Because this method has lowest error, and pass
IIDN test. The data is normally distributed and the data is already independent, has
constant variance.
The forecasting for Sept 2017 – Feb 2018 are shown as belows.
Figure 4.34. Forecasting Sept 2017 – Feb 2018
Period dt'
Sept 1427.36
Oct 1650.45
Nov 1688.73
Dec 1427.36
Jan 1650.45
Feb 1688.73
1.139
CHAPTER V
CONCLUSION
The demand of product X over the last 20 months showed seasonal pattern. It could
be seen from the scatterplot between the data. There are high and low demand that
occured in several months. To forecast the demand,there are eleven forecasting
methods are used, such as LPD, Arithmatic Average, SMA, WMA, DMA, SES,
DES Browns, DES Holt, Cyclic, Constant Linear, and Cyclic Linear. To determine
which methods is the best, checking error (MAD, MSE, MAPE), validation test,
and IIDN are conducted.
From the comparation of error measurement, there are three smallest error, such as
Cyclic, Constant Linear, and Cyclic Linear. All of the methods are testes by IIDN
test. The results show that Constant Linear and Cyclic Linear are not independent
and normal. So they are not normally distributed. Just cyclic method are normally
disributed and independent.
From the analysis,it could be concluded that cyclic method as the best method based
on calculation. This method has smallest error, slighlty pass the validation test, and
pass the IIDN test, independent and normally distributed (p-value > 0.05). It is
recommended used for predicticing the forecast demand.
1.140
REFERENCE
Bragg, S. (2014). Qualitative Forecasting. Retrieved September 24th, 2017 from

https://www.accountingtools.com/articles/what-is-qualitative-forecasting.html
Hiroyuki, H. (2014). Tracking Signal. Retrieved September 24th, 2017 from

http://www.asprova.jp/mrp/glossary/en/cat256/post-774.html
Ong, J. (2013). Couse Note Production Planning Inventory Control. Cikarang
Subagyo, P. (2002). Forecasting: Konsep dan Aplikasi. Yogyakarta: BPFE.
1.141
TABLE OF CONTENTS
CHAPTER I ......................................................................................................... 2.2
INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................... 2.2
1.1 Background ........................................................................................... 2.2
1.2 Objectives .............................................................................................. 2.2
1.3 Tools and Equipment(s) ........................................................................ 2.3
1.4 Steps ........................................................................................................... 2.3
CHAPTER II ........................................................................................................ 2.4
CHAPTER III .................................................................................................... 2.12
DATA COLLECTION....................................................................................... 2.12
CHAPTER IV .................................................................................................... 2.17
DATA ANALYSIS ............................................................................................ 2.17
4.1. Workforce/Chase Strategy ...................................................................... 2.17
4.2. Inventory Strategy/ Strategy Level (No Overtime) ................................. 2.21
4.3. Inventory Strategy/ Strategy Level (Overtime)....................................... 2.25
4.4. Transportation ......................................................................................... 2.29
4.5. Mixed Strategy ........................................................................................ 2.34
4.6. Stable ....................................................................................................... 2.39
4.7. Zero Inventory......................................................................................... 2.43
CHAPTER V...................................................................................................... 2.48
CONCLUSION .................................................................................................. 2.48
REFERENCE ..................................................................................................... 2.49
2.1
CHAPTER I
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background
Aggregate Planning is the process of developing, analyzing, and maintaining a
preliminary, approximate schedule of the overall operations of an organization. In
other words, aggregate planning is an operational activity critical to the
organization as it looks to balance long-term strategic planning with short-term
production success. Aggregate planning involves some strategy such as inventory,
production rate, manpower needs, capacity, and other controllable variables. The
activities that use aggregate planning are a solid demand forecast covering the
medium-range period, financial planning surrounding the production cost which
includes raw material, labor, inventory planning, and organization policy around
labor and quality management.
Aggregate planning helps to achieve balance between operational goal, financial

goal and overall strategic objective of the organization to manage capacity and
demand planning. The importance of aggregate planning plays an important part in
achieving a long-term objectives of the organization. Aggregate planning methods
consist of zero inventory (chase strategy), constant workforce method,
transportation method and hybrid method.
This report will record all of the data from several method of aggregate planning.
The data was taken from previous report. The data is demand of production from
September 2017 until February 2018. Then, the data will be analyzed and the
conclusion can be taken to determine the best method to achieving a long-term
strategic planning with short-term production success.
1.2 Objectives
 To match the production rate and the demand rate (sales forecast).
2.2
 To determine the productive utilization of both human and equipment
resources.
 To minimize the production cost.
 To achieving a long-term strategic with short-term production success.
 To minimize the changes in the workforce levels.
 To minimize the changes in the production rates.
 To maximize the utilization of the plant and the various equipment.

 Microsoft excel is used for the calculation

 Papers
 Laptop
 Printer
1.4 Steps
There are several steps to determine the data, which are:
 Choose the best method of forecasting based on previous report.

 Determine the several methods of aggregate planning based on data.
 Conduct the MPS in Aggregate level with workforce (chase strategy) / MPS
1, inventory strategy and transportation method.
 Analyze which one the best method with the lowest cost.
 The result was analyzed.
2.3
CHAPTER II
LITERATURE STUDY
Aggregate Planning (AP) is an operational activity to determine the amount and

time of production in the future. Aggregate Planning is also defined as an attempt
to match the supply and demand of a product or service by determining the exact
amount and timing of input, transformation, and output. Where, AP decisions are
made for production, staffing, inventory, and backorder levels.
Aggregate planning can be used in determining the best path to meet predicted
demand by adjusting production values, labor rates, inventory levels, overtime
work, subcontract rates, and other controllable variables.
2.1 Aggregate Planning Function
Basically aggregate production planning is a process of determining the

level of output / overall production capacity to meet the level of demand
obtained from forecasting and order with the aim of minimizing the total
cost of production.
Some of the aggregate planning functions are:

1. Ensure sales plans and production plans are consistent with the company's
strategic plan
2. Performance planning process production planning tool
3. Ensure production capability is consistent with the production plan
4. Monitoring actual production results of production plans and making
adjustments
5. Arrange the finished product inventory to reach the target and make
adjustments
6. Direct the preparation and execution of master production schedules
2.2 Objectives of Aggregate Planning
Basically the goal of aggregate planning is to seek an optimal solution in

cost or profit in the planning period. However, there are other strategic
2.4
issues that may be more important than low cost. The strategic issues in
question include reducing employment level problems, reducing inventory
levels, or fulfilling a higher level of service. For manufacturing companies,
the aggregate schedule aims at connecting the company's strategic
objectives with the production plan, but for the service company, aggregate
scheduling aims to link targets to the worker's schedule.
Four things are required in aggregate planning:
 A logical whole unit for measuring sales and output
 Predicted demand for a viable medium-term planning period at the
aggregate time.
 Methods to determine costs
 Models that combine predictions and costs so scheduling decisions can
be made for the planning period
2.3 Cost of Aggregate Planning

The costs involved in aggregate planning include:
1. Regular Time Cost
The cost of producing a unit on regular time
2. Over Time Cost
The cost of producing a unit on over time
3. Hiring Costs (additional labor costs)
Additional labor costs for advertising, selection and training. The cost
of training is a huge cost of recruited labor is an inexperienced
workforce.
4. Layoff (Firing) Cost
The cost associated with reducing the workforce by one person.
Unemployment compensation cost, and even lost goodwill should be
included.
5. Subcontracted costs (subcontracted costs)
When the demand exceeds the capacity of a regular capacity, companies
typically subcontract excess demand that cannot be handled alone on
2.5
other companies. The consequence of this remission is the incidence of
subcontracting costs, which are usually more costly for subcontracting
than for self-production and the risk of contractor delivery.
6. Inventory-holding cost
The lost opportunity resulting from tying up money in finished goods
inventory plus the cost of space in which to store the finished goods.
Interest, space, taxes, insurance, obsolescence and other costs are
sometimes included in this cost.
7. Stock Out Cost
The expected losses result from failure to meet the demand for the
product.
 If the customer merely waits for delivery – Backorders (the product is
returned)
 If the customer goes elsewhere – lost sales (the product cannot sell
correctly. Example, bread because the expired date)
2.4 Aggregate Planning Strategies

There are several questions that the operations manager must answer in
formulating the aggregate plan:
 Is inventory used to absorb changes during the period of demand?
 Will changes be accommodated by changing the amount of labor?
 Is it necessary to use part-time workforce or overtime and free time to
deal with fluctuations?
 Is it necessary to use subcontractors to anticipate fluctuating orders so
as to maintain a stable workforce?
 Is it necessary to change prices or other factors to influence demand?
All of these are true planning strategies. These strategies involve inventory
manipulation, production values, level of labor, capacity, and other
controllable variables.
2.6
2.4.1 Capacity Options
A company may choose the following basic capacity (production)
options:
1. Change inventory levels
Managers can increase inventories during low demand periods to
meet high demand in the future.
2. Diversify the amount of labor
Dismissing or done by employing. One way to meet demand is to
employ or dismiss the production workers to adjust production
levels.
3. Diversify production levels through overtime or free time.
Sometimes labor can be kept constant by varying working hours,
reducing the number of hours worked when demand is low and
increasing hours of work as demand increases.
4. Subcontracting
A company can obtain temporary capacity by subcontracting
during periods of high demand.
5. The use of part-time employees
Especially in the service sector, part-time employees can fill the
needs of unskilled labor.
2.4.2 Demand Options

The company will be better prepared in preparing material and labor
needs to be prepared to meet production capacity in accordance with
predetermined demand as the stable of number of demand (demand),
then the production planning process will be easier to do.
Here are some steps you can take for a demand options strategy:
 Affects demand: advertisement, promotion, personal selling,
discount, price discrimination
2.7
 Backordering: Makes for the customer to agree to order for the
delivery of the order in case of a condition where the company
cannot fulfill the customer's request from the available
inventory.
2.4.3 Mixed Options

While every five capacity options and three demand options can
produce an effective aggregate schedule, some combination of
capacity and demand options may be better and will result in some
plans. This plan may consist of:
1. Strategy of hunting (chase strategy)
A hunting strategy tries to reach the level of output for each period
that satisfies the demand forecast for that period. Chase Strategy is
also defined as a planning strategy in Aggregate Planning by way
of adjusting capacity to demand; output planning for a period is
made according to the expected demand for the period.
 Changing production rate: over time / under time
 Using part time workers
The worker needed can be calculated using equation:
𝑎 / ℎ
= 𝑎𝑦 𝑖 (2-1)
/ 𝑎
ℎ 𝑤 𝑘
2. Leveling scheduling strategy (level-scheduling strategy)

An Aggregate Plan in which daily production remains the same
from period to period.
The worker needed can be calculated using equation:
𝑎 𝑖 𝑎
= 𝑖 (2-2)
𝑎 𝑖 𝑎 / 𝑎
𝑤 𝑘
2.8
2.5. Aggregate Planning Method
There are several techniques that operations managers use to develop more
useful and more appropriate aggregate plans, including:
2.5.1 Graph Methods and Diagrams

This method is very often used because it is easy to understand.
Basically, the plan plans with graphics and diagrams deal with
variables little by little so that planners can compare the projected
demand with existing capacity.
The approach used is "trial and error" which does not guarantee the
creation of optimal production plans, but the calculations required
are few and can be performed by the most basic staff of their work.
Stages in this method are:
1. Determine the demand for each period.
2. Determine how much capacity at regular time, overtime, and
subcontracting action for each period.
3. Determine labor costs, recruitment fees and employee
termination costs and inventory holding costs.
4. Consider company policies that can be applied to workers and
inventory levels.
5. Develop an alternative plan and observe the total cost.
2.5.2 Transportation Method (TABULAR)

Transportation Method is one of a type of linear programming
problem that may be solved using a simplified version of the simplex
technique. Transportation Method can be used to obtain aggregate
plans that would allow balanced capacity and demand and the
minimization of costs.
2.9
2.6 Pattern/Production Policy
The pattern of production concerns the issue of the distribution of
production for a certain period of production (usually one year) into smaller
periods (example: semi-annual, quarterly or monthly).
Production patterns are required by companies that often experience
fluctuations in product sales resulting in fluctuations in initial inventory and
final product inventories. There are two kinds of patterns / production
policies are known, namely:
2.6.1 Constant Production
That is the distribution of products from yearly to monthly relatively
equal (constant) every month. With a pattern like this, there will be
or happen inventory. With the inventory, the shortage and excess
sales will be balanced by the advantages and disadvantages of
inventory.
Example:
 The monthly production amounts to 1,500 units.
 For example, in June it sold 1,350 units, meaning that the
company has a supply of 150 units.
 In July the company was able to sell as many as 1,600 units,
while the company produced only 1,500 units. Lack of
production goods is covered or balanced from previous month's
inventories (150 units), meaning the company still has 50 units
of inventory.
 And so on, the deficiency or excess of the sale is offset by an
excess or a shortage of inventory, except for certain
circumstances, for example when a demand occurs.
2.6.2 Corrugated Production

Corrugated production is the distribution of annual products to the
monthly, with the number of production from month to month is not
as great depending on the size of the sale. With such production
2.10
patterns, then in addition to the number of products produced will
rise and fall, also result in relatively stable inventory conditions.
When sales go up then production will go up as well. Meanwhile,
when sales go down then production will go down as well.
Example:
 For example the production of a company of 1,500 units with
inventories of 100 units.
 In June sales are estimated at 1,800 units, the company will
produce as many as 1,800 units.
 In July, it is estimated that sales of 1,600 units will produce
1,600 units.
2.11
CHAPTER III
DATA COLLECTION
In this aggregate planning, the data of forecast demands are needed. From Module
1 : Forecasting, there are several forecasting methods used. The comparation of
analysis results are showed as belows.
Table 3.1. Comparation MAD, MSE, MAPE, and Validation Test
Tracking
Verification Signal -
NO Method MAD MSE MAPE Test Brown
1 LPD 205,95 82700,16 15,32% Not Passed Passed
2 Arithmatic 185,39 63723,83 13,44% Not Passed Not Passed
3 SMA 195,71 77746,08 14,82% Not Passed Not Passed
4 WMA 183,90 78511,25 13,97% Not Passed Not Passed
5 DMA 254,90 134980,04 19,42% Not Passed Not Passed
6 SES 171,86 62485,27 12,75% Not Passed Passed
DES
7 BROWN 185,78 81944,59 14,14% Not Passed Passed
8 DES HOLT 207,71 90462,67 15,65% Not Passed Not Passed
9 CYCLIC 147,30 38241,02 10,24% Not Passed Not Passed
CONSTANT
10 LINEAR 166,73 49961,21 11,97% Not Passed Not Passed
CYCLIC
11 LINEAR 154,81 44280,00 11,11% Not Passed Not Passed
Lowest
Error 147,30 38241,02 10,24%
By comparing the error measurement (MAD, MSE, MAPE) between the

forecasting methods, the three rank lowest error is cyclic method, constant linear,
and cyclic linear. After pass the error test, there are validation test. Three of them
are not passed the validation test. To check which one is best method, there are
IIDN testing to check the forecasting methods. After checking IIDN test, only
Cyclic method pass the test. The proof of IIDN test of this method are shown as
belows,
2.12
The p-value is larger than 0.05, so do not reject Ho. It is mean that the data is
normal.
Figure 3.1. Probability Plot of Residual Cyclic
From the figure below, it showed that the data is independent (not correlated each
others). There will be a fast change in the signs of consecutive residuals.
Figure 3.2. Autocorrelation Function for Residual Cyclic
2.13
2 and -2. It is not show any pattern. So, the data is normally distributed and has
constant variance.
Figure 3.3. Versus Fits Cyclic Method
From Module 1, it concluded that cyclic method are choosen as the best one
compared other method. The forecast demand data shown as belows.
Table 3.2. Forecast Demand of Product X (Sept 2017 – February 2018)
Forecasted Demand
Month Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18
Demand 1428 1651 1689 1428 1651 1689
Other information are given from the case study, such as belows.
Table 3.3. Number of Workers from Monday to Saturday
Shift/Day Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday

10 10 10 10 10
Shift 1 10 workers
workers workers workers workers workers
10 10 10 10 10
Shift 2 10 workers
Total 20 20 20 20 20
20 workers
Workers workers workers workers workers workers
In every working days, there are two shifts. In each shift, there are 10 workers/shift-
day. Total workers available for each day are 20 workers.
2.14
On the Table 3.4., it is showed the number of working days from Sept 2017 until February
2018. It is based on Indonesia holidays calender. The calender are shown in the figure
belows.
Table 3.4. Number of Working Days from September 2017 until February 2018
Days Sep-17 Oct 17 Nov-17 Dec 17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Total

Working
24 26 26 23 25 23
Days 147
Off 6 5 4 8 6 5 34
Total Days 30 31 30 31 31 28 181
Figure 3.4. Calender Sept 2017 – Feb 2018
2.15
Figure 3.4. Calender Sept 2017 – Feb 2018 (continued)
Table 3.5. Holiday Name
Date Holiday Name

1st Sept 2017 Idul Adha
21th Sept 2017 Tahun Baru Hijriyah
1st December 2017 Maulid Nabi
25th December 2017 Christmas
26th December 2017 Cuti Bersama
1st January 2018 New Year
16th February 2018 Chinese New Year
Some related data in order to analyze the aggregate planning, showed in the table
belows,
Table 3.6. Other Related Data
Working Hours 7 hour/shift

Cycle Time 188 minutes/unit
IDR
Regular Time Cost 130.000 /worker/day
IDR
Overtime Cost 30.000 /hour
IDR
Hiring Cost 2.500.000 /worker
IDR
Layoff/Firing Cost 5.000.000 /worker
IDR
Inventory Cost 75.000 /unit/month
IDR
Subcontract Cost 50.000 /hour
Beginning Inventory 70 units
Expected Ending Inventory 100 units
2.16
CHAPTER IV
DATA ANALYSIS
In this chapter, there will be master production schedule (MPS) in aggregate level
using several methods. Before we analyze and calculate the MPS, first the
production rate should be calculated first.
Table 4.1. Production Rate
Total Work Time per worker 420 mins/worker

Time to produce 1 unit 188 mins/unit
units/worker-
2,23
day
(K) Production Rate each worker per day is
The production rate is calculated using the formula belows. It is mean that in one
day, one worker can produce in average 2,23 units.
𝑊 𝑖 / 𝑖
𝑖 = = = ,
𝑖 / 𝑖 −
The master production schedule use forecast demand and analyzed by several
methods as belows.
4.1. Workforce/Chase Strategy
Workforce strategy is a strategy by hiring and firing workers and there are inventory
cost at the end of inventory. This method produce only enough goods to meet or
exactly match the demand for goods. Think of this strategy in terms of a restaurant,
which produces meals only when a customer orders, therefore matching the actual
production with customer demand.
In next page, there will be a table consist of how to calculate the production cost by
using workforce/chase strategy.
To calculate the unit/worker, it use formula as belows. Example of units/worker

for Sept 2017.
𝑖 𝑖
= × = × , = ,
2.17
Table 4.2. Workforce/Chase Strategy
Months Cost / (worker or

Total
Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 unit or day)
1 Days 24 26 26 23 25 23 147
2 Units/worker/month 53,62 58,09 58,09 51,38 55,85 51,38 328,40
3 Demand 1428 1651 1689 1428 1651 1689 9536
4 Demand Required 1358 1651 1689 1428 1651 1789 9566
5 Worker Needed 25,33 28,42 29,08 27,79 29,56 34,82 175,00
Round Up 26 29 30 28 30 35 178
6 Workers Available 20 26 29 30 28 30 163
7 Workers Hired 6 3 1 0 2 5 15
IDR IDR IDR IDR IDR IDR IDR IDR
Hiring Cost
8 15.000.000 7.500.000 2.500.000 - 5.000.000 12.500.000 37.500.000 2.500.000
9 Workers Laid Off 0 0 0 2 0 0 2
In order to get the worker needed, it could found by using formulas as belows. Example of workers needed for Sept 2017.
𝑖
𝑊 = = =
𝑖 /𝑊 ,
The demand required for Sept 2017 is calculated by minus demand with the beginning inventory (70 units), because the company can
use the beginning inventory to fulfill the demand. At the end of the Feb 2018, the demand required is calculated by adding demand
with ending inventory (100 units), because the company would like to fullfill expected ending inventory.
2.18
Table 4.3. Workforce/Chase Strategy (continued)
IDR IDR IDR IDR IDR IDR IDR

10
Laid Off Cost
- - - 10.000.000 - - 10000000 5.000.000
11 Workers Used 26 29 30 28 30 35 178
Labor Cost
12 81.120.000 98.020.000 101.400.000 83.720.000 97.500.000 104.650.000 566.410.000 130.000
13 Units Produced 1394,04 1684,47 1742,55 1438,72 1675,53 1798,40 9733,723404
Round Down 1394 1684 1742 1438 1675 1798 9733
14 Net Inventory 36 33 53 10 24 9 165
Cumulative Net
Inventory 36 69 122 132 156 165
Holding Cost
15 2.700.000 5.175.000 9.150.000 9.900.000 11.700.000 12.375.000 51.000.000 75.000
16 Backorder Cost 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
17
Total Cost
98.820.000 110.695.000 113.050.000 103.620.000 114.200.000 129.525.000 669.910.000
Worker available is known in the beginning that number of workers are 20 workers. To determine whether hire or laid off workers, so
the different between the worker needed and worker available calculated as belows. For example Sept 2017.
𝑖 𝑊 =𝑊 −𝑊 𝐴 𝑖
𝑖 𝑊 = − =
Because the worker needed is higher than workers available, so hire workers. If lower than workers available, so laid off workers.
2.19
Number of worker used is same with worker needed. Labor cost is calculated by
using formula as belows. Example for Sept 2017.
=𝑊 × /𝑊 ×
= × × = . .
Unit produced is calculated by using formula as belows.
𝑖
𝑖 =𝑊 × = × ,
𝑊
=
Net Inventory is calculated by using formula as belows.
= 𝑖 − 𝑖
And then calculate the cumulative net inventory by adding with previous net
inventory. If the results of cumulative inventory is positive, so it is included in
holding cost. If the results of cumulative inventory is negative, so it is included in
backorder cost.
The total cost of each month could be calculated by adding hiring cost, layoff cost,
labor cost, holding cost, and backorder cost. Total cost by using Workforce/Chase
Strategy is IDR 669.910.000.
2.20
4.2. Inventory Strategy/ Strategy Level (No Overtime)
Strategy Level (No Overtime) is a method by choosing the highest number of
workers and remain same for all period. Assume here that there are not overtime
cost. Before calculate the cost, first the higher number of workers should be found
first. The calculation will be shown in the next page.
Table 4.4. Number of Worker Needed
Months
Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18
Days / Month 24 26 26 23 25 23
Sum of Days 24 50 76 99 124 147
Demand 1358 1651 1689 1428 1651 1789
Sum of Demand 1358 3009 4698 6126 7777 9566
Workers 25,33 26,94 27,67 27,70 28,07 29,13
Round Up 26 27 28 28 29 30
The workers needed is calculated by formula as belows.
𝑊 =
In this method, the highest number of workers is choosen. So, the number of
workers needed is 30.
for Sept 2017.
𝑖 𝑖
= × = × , = ,
2.21
Table 4.5. Strategy Level (No Overtime)
Months Cost /
Total (worker or
1 Days 24 26 26 23 25 23 147
3 Demand 1428 1651 1689 1428 1651 1689 9536
4 Demand Required 1358 1651 1689 1428 1651 1789 9566
Cummulative
5 Demand 1358 3009 4698 6126 7777 9566 32534
6 Worker Needed 30 30 30 30 30 30 180
8 Workers Hired 10 0 0 0 0 0 10
Hiring Cost
9 25.000.000 - - - - - 25.000.000 2.500.000
Cumulative demand is calculated by adding the previous demand. Worker needed for all period are remain same, 30 workers.
2.22
Table 4.6. Strategy Level (No Overtime) (continued)

11
Laid Off Cost
- - - - - - 0 5.000.000
12 Workers Used 30 30 30 30 30 30 180
Labor Cost
13 93.600.000 101.400.000 101.400.000 89.700.000 97.500.000 89.700.000 573.300.000 130.000
14 Units Produced 1608,51 1742,55 1742,55 1541,49 1675,53 1541,49 9852,13
15 Round Down 1608 1742 1742 1541 1675 1541 9852
Cummulative Units
16 Produced 1608 3350 5092 6633 8308 9849 34840
Cummulative
17 Inventory 250 341 394 507 531 383 2306
Holding Cost
18 18.750.000 25.575.000 29.550.000 38.025.000 39.825.000 28.725.000 172.950.000 75.000
19 Overtime Cost 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
20
Total Cost 137.350.000 126.975.000 130.950.000 127.725.000 137.325.000 118.425.000 778.750.000
𝑖 𝑊 = − =
Because the worker needed is higher than workers available, so hire workers. If lower than workers available, so laid off workers.
2.23
=𝑊 × /𝑊 ×
= × × = IDR . .
𝑖
𝑖 =𝑊 × = × ,
𝑊
=
= 𝑖 − 𝑖
backorder cost.
labor cost, and holding cost. Total cost by using Inventory/Level Strategy (No
Overtime) is IDR 778.750.000.
2.24
4.3. Inventory Strategy/ Strategy Level (Overtime)
Strategy Level with Overtime is a method using average number of workers needed
for production and overtime is allowed to fulfill the uncovered demand. Before
calculate the total cost, first the number of workers should be defined as belows.
∑
𝑊 = = =
∑ 𝑖 /𝑊 ,
In this method, the number of workers are remain same for all periods, 29 workers.

for Sept 2017.
𝑖 𝑖
= × = × , = ,
2.25
Table 4.7. Strategy Level (Overtime)

Total
1 Days 24 26 26 23 25 23 147
3 Demand 1428 1651 1689 1428 1651 1689 9536
4 Demand Required 1358 1651 1689 1428 1651 1789 9566
5 Worker Needed 29 29 29 29 29 29 174,00
8
Hiring Cost 22.500.000 - - - - - 22.500.000 IDR 2.500.000
IDR IDR IDR IDR IDR IDR
Laid Off Cost
10 - - - - - - 0 IDR 5.000.000
2.26
Table 4.8. Strategy Level (Overtime) (continued)
11 Workers Used 29 29 29 29 29 29 174

Labor Cost
12 90.480.000 98.020.000 98.020.000 86.710.000 94.250.000 86.710.000 554.190.000 130.000
Units
13 Produced 1554,89 1684,47 1684,47 1490,11 1619,68 1490,11 9523,723404
Round Down 1554 1684 1684 1490 1619 1490 9523
14 Net Inventory 196 33 -5 62 -32 -199 -45
Cumulative
Net Inventory 196 229 224 286 254 55
Holding Cost
15 14.700.000 17.175.000 16.800.000 4.650.000 19.050.000 4.125.000 72.375.000 75.000
IDR
Overtime Hour
16 0 0 0 141 30.000
17 Overtime Cost
18
Total Cost 127.680.000 115.195.000 114.820.000 91.360.000 113.300.000 90.835.000 653.190.000
𝑖 𝑊 = − =
Because the worker needed is higher than workers available, so hire workers. If lower than workers available, so laid off workers
2.27
=𝑊 × /𝑊 ×
= × × = IDR . .
𝑖
𝑖 =𝑊 × = × ,
𝑊
=
= 𝑖 − 𝑖
backorder cost.
Overtime hour is calculated by formula as belows.Because the overtime cost is per

hour, so the cumulactive net inventory divided by 60 mins, and then multiply with
production rate is 188 mins/units.
𝑖
𝑖 = × 𝑖 / 𝑖
𝑖
labor cost, holding cost, and overtime cost. Total cost by using Inventory/Level
Strategy (Overtime) is IDR 653.295.000.
2.28
4.4. Transportation
Transportation Method is one of a type of linear programming problem that may be
solved using a simplified version of the simplex technique.
In this case study, assumed that the maximum overtime hour per worker in a day is
3 hours and the cycle time is already known which is 188 minutes. So, the
production rate of overtime is as belows.
𝑖
𝑖 ,
𝑖 = ℎ × =
𝑖
, 𝑖
= /ℎ
Now, calculate the available capacity for regular time as belows.

Table 4.9 The Available Regular Time Capacity
Days Sep-17 Oct 17 Nov-17 Dec 17 Jan-18 Feb-18

Working Days 24 26 26 23 25 23
Number of
20 20 20 20 20 20
Worker
Number of
480 520 520 460 500 460
Worker/Month
Available RT
1072 1162 1162 1028 1117 1028
Capacity (units)
Available RT Capacity (units) is calculated as belows.

𝑊
𝐴 𝑖 𝑖 = × 𝑖
ℎ
= × , =
Now, to find the available OT Capacity, so it use formula as belows.

𝑊
𝐴 𝑖 𝑖 = × 𝑖
ℎ
= × , =
The table of calculation in the next page.
2.29
Table 4.10 The Available Over Time Capacity
Oct
Days Sep-17 Nov-17 Dec 17 Jan-18 Feb-18
17
Working
24 26 26 23 25 23
Days
Number of
20 20 20 20 20 20
Worker
Number of
480 520 520 460 500 460
Worker/Month
Available OT
Capacity 460 498 498 440 479 440
(units)
The available of Subcontract is assumed same as Overtime. And then, next calculate
the cost per unit as belows.
Table 4.11 The Production Cost for RT, OT, and SC
Cost Price Prod Rate Cost

RT IDR 130.000/worker/day 2,23 IDR 58.190 /units
OT IDR 30.000/hour 0,96 IDR 94.000 /units
SC IDR 50.000/hour 0,31 IDR 156.667 /units
The cost of RT, OT, and SC are calculated by using formula as belows.
𝑖
=
2.30
Table 4.12 Transportation Model
Month Month
Month Demand RT OT SC RT OT SC RT OT SC RT OT SC RT OT SC RT OT SC
1072 460 460 1162 498 498 1162 498 498 1028 440 440 1117 479 479 1028 440 440
Capacity 1072 460 460
Cost 58190 94000 156667
Sep-17 1358 Plan 1072 286
Capacity 1162 498 498
Cost 133190 169000 231667 58190 94000 156667
Oct-17 1651 Plan 1162 489
Capacity 1162 498 498
Cost 208190 244000 306667 133190 169000 231667 58190 94000 156667
Nov-17 1689 Plan 1162 498 29
Capacity 1028 440 440
Cost 283190 319000 381667 208190 244000 306667 133190 169000 231667 58190 94000 156667
Dec-17 1428 Plan 1028 400
Capacity 1117 479 479
Cost 133190 169000 231667 58190 94000 156667
Jan-18 1651 Plan 1117 479 55
Capacity 1028 440 440
Cost 133190 169000 231667 58190 94000 156667
Feb-18 1789 Plan 1028 440 321
Total Used 1072 286 1162 489 1162 498 29 1028 400 1117 479 55 1028 440 321
2.31
In the transportation model, the demand will be allocated into the capacity of RT
(regular time), OT (over time), SC (subcontract). The order to meet each capacity
is based on the lowest cost. Usually, RT is the lowest cost followed with OT, and
the highest cost is SC. But, when there’s capacity in other month that have lower
cost after include the holding cost and still have enough capacity, it can be filled
before filled the capacity with higher cost.
In the first month which is September 2017, the demand are 1358 units. In order to
maximize the capacity utilization with the minimum cost, so the RT (regular time)
capacity will be maximized up to 1072 units with the cost is IDR 58.190 (the lowest
cost between RT, OT, and SC in September) and the rest units that must be allocated
are 286 units. After the capacity of RT already full, the rest units will be allocated
into the OT (over time) rather than SC (subcontract), because the cost per unit in
OT is lower than SC and the capacity of OT is enough up to 460 units.
In October 2017, the demand are 1651 units. The first capacity that must be fulfilled
is RT in October 2017, which is it have the lowest cost per unit. But, because the
capacity of RT is 1162 units, the rest units which are 489 units will be allocated into
the OT capacity that can be filled up to 498 units. The reason why the 489 units
must be allocated into the OT is because the cost per unit in OT is lower than by
using SC.
In November 2017, the demand are 1689 units. Actually, the capacity and the cost
of RT, OT, and SC in this month is same with the previous month, October 2017.
So, the RT capacity will be full for 1162 units. The rest demand that must be
allocated are 527 units. Because of the OT capacity as the second lowest-cost only
for 498 units, so after filled the OT capacity then SC capacity in November 2017
must be used for the other 29 units.
In December 2017, the demand are 1428 units. In order to maximize the capacity
utilization with the minimum cost, so the RT (regular time) capacity will be
maximized up to 1028 units with the cost is IDR 58.190 (the lowest cost between
RT, OT, and SC in December) and the rest units that must be allocated are 400
2.32
units. After the capacity of RT already full, the rest units will be allocated into the
OT (over time) rather than SC (subcontract), because the cost per unit in OT is
lower than SC and the capacity of OT is enough up to 440 units.
After the new year 2018, the demand in January 2018 are 1651 units which is same
with the demand in October 2017. As always like the 4 months before, the first
capacity that must be fulfilled is RT which is it have the lowest cost per unit. But,
because the capacity of RT is 1117 units, the rest units which are 534 units will be
allocated into the second lowest-cost which is OT capacity that can be filled up to
479 units. Where the rest still 55 units are allocated into the SC in January 2018.
In February 2018, the demand that must be fulfilled are 1789 units. Actually, the
capacity and the cost of RT, OT, and SC in this month is same with December 2017.
So, the RT capacity will be full for 1028 units. The rest demand that must be
allocated are 761 units. Because of the OT capacity as the second lowest-cost only
for 440 units, so after filled the OT capacity then SC capacity in February 2018
must be used for the other 321 units.
Table 4.13 Master Production Scheduling
Available Unused Production Planning Ending Total

Period Demand
Capacity Capacity RT OT SC Inventory Production
Sep-17 1358 1072 0 1072 286 0 0 1358
Oct -17 1651 1162 0 1162 489 0 0 1651
Nov-17 1689 1162 0 1162 498 29 0 1660
Dec-17 1428 1028 0 1028 400 0 0 1428
Jan-18 1651 1117 0 1117 479 55 0 1596
Feb-18 1689 1028 0 1028 440 321 100 1468
6568 2592 405 100
After the demand, available capacity until the total of production in RT, OT, and
SC in the table 4.12 already determined, then the MPS can be seen in the table
4.13. When the demand in September 2017 are 1358 units, and the available
capacity of RT is only for 1072 units, then the production is planned to allocate the
2.33
1072 units into the RT, and the rest is 286 units is allocated into the OT. Actually,
this MPS is just like the summary of the transportation model in the table 4.12. But,
in this MPS, the total of units in each RT, OT, SC, and ending inventory can be
determined in order to calculate the production cost. It can be seen on the table
below.
Table 4.14 Production Cost Calculation
Unit Cost Total Cost

IDR IDR
RT 6568 58.190 382.200.000
IDR IDR
OT 2592 94.000 243.648.000
IDR IDR
SC 405 156.667 63.450.000
IDR IDR
Delay 0 - -
IDR IDR
Holding 100 75.000 7.500.000
IDR IDR
Backorder 0 - -
IDR
Total Cost 696.798.000
Based on the table 4.14, the company will get cost about IDR 382.200.000 for
using regular time to make 6568 units. Where the cost of OT and SC are IDR
243.648.000 and IDR 63.450.000 in order to make 2592 units by using OT and 405
units by using SC. In the ending inventory, the company will save 100 units to hold.
So, the holding cost that the company must pay is IDR 7.500.000. In the end, the
total cost if the company using the transportation model will be IDR 696.798.000.
4.5. Mixed Strategy

Mixed strategy is the strategy that combine several strategy in order to get the
lowest total cost. It is just like trial and error strategy but with logical reason, so the
result will be no from abstract reason or just lucky. In this strategy, in order to know
the number of worker that needed to produce the demand with minimum inventory,
the formula will be same like the zero inventory strategy. The workers needed is
calculated by formula as belows. Example for Sept 2017.
2.34
𝑊 = = = ,
𝑖 ,
𝑖 ℎ

for Sept 2017.
𝑖 𝑖
= × = × , = ,
Actually for the zero inventory strategy, the worker needed will be round up which
is 26 workers. But, there must be some units in the inventory that caused more
holding cost. If the company use over time but just using 25 workers, and compare
with the total cost if the company using 26 workers, the comparison is like on the
table below.
Table 4.15 Comparison Between 25 Workers and 26 Workers in September 2017
Use 26 workers Use 25 Workers

Demand 1358
worker needed 26 25
worker hired 6 5
Hiring cost IDR 15.000.000 IDR 12.500.000
Labor cost IDR 81.120.000 IDR 78.000.000
Unit produced 1394 1340
Net Inventory 36 -18
Over Time hour 0 56,40
OT cost 0 IDR 1.692.000,00
Inventory 36 0
Holding cost IDR 2.700.000 0
Total cost IDR 98.820.000 IDR 92.192.000
As the table 4.15 shown above, the company can press the cost around IDR
6.628.000 if use 25 workers. That is why in this mixed strategy, the number of
worker will be round down except for December 2017. The analysis of the rest
month except December 2017 are same like September 2017 for the round down
reason.
2.35
Table 4.16 Mixed Strategy Model

Total
1 Days 24 26 26 23 25 23 147
3 Demand 1428 1651 1689 1428 1651 1689 9536
4 Demand Required 1358 1651 1689 1428 1641 1789 9556
5 Worker Needed 25,33 28,42 29,08 27,79 29,38 34,82 174,82
25 28 29 28 29 34 173
8 Hiring Cost IDR 12.500.000 IDR 7.500.000 IDR 2.500.000 IDR - IDR 2.500.000 IDR 12.500.000 IDR 37.500.000 IDR 2.500.000
10 Laid Off Cost IDR - IDR - IDR - IDR 5.000.000 IDR - IDR - 5000000 IDR 5.000.000
11 Workers Used 25 28 29 28 29 34 174
12 Labor Cost IDR 78.000.000 IDR 94.640.000 IDR 98.020.000 IDR 83.720.000 IDR 94.250.000 IDR 101.660.000 IDR 550.290.000 IDR 130.000
13 Units Produced 1340,43 1626,38 1684,47 1438,72 1619,68 1747,02 9456,70
Round Down 1340 1626 1684 1438 1619 1747 9456
14 Net Inventory -18 -25 -5 10 -22 -42 -102
16 Overtime Hour 56,40 78 16 0 69 132 351
17 Overtime Cost IDR 1.692.000 IDR 2.350.000 IDR 470.000 IDR - IDR 2.068.000 IDR 3.948.000 IDR 10.528.000 IDR 30.000
18 Inventory 0 0 0 10 0 100 110
19 Holding Cost IDR - IDR - IDR - IDR 750.000 IDR - IDR 7.500.000 IDR 8.250.000 IDR 75.000
20 Total Cost IDR 92.192.000 IDR 104.490.000 IDR 100.990.000 IDR 89.470.000 IDR 98.818.000 IDR 125.608.000 IDR 611.568.000
2.36
The table 4.16 shows for September 2017, the workers that will be needed are 25
workers as the calculation in the table 4.15 already shown. The net inventory after
using regular time is -18, which is lack of 18 units to achieve the demand. So, the
company will use over time to handle it. The formula to find how long in hour to
make 18 units is on the below.
∗ . 𝑖 𝑖
𝑖 =
𝑖
∗ 𝑖
𝑖 = = . ℎ
𝑖
In this company, the over time each day is assumed to be 3 hours. Thus, if the
company asks their all of their workers to do the over time, then the 18 units will
be finished in a day. But, the cost will be calculated as much as the over time hour
that needed to make 18 units, so the OT cost is :
.
= . ℎ = . .
ℎ
As all of the calculation in September 2017 is already explained, the rest following
months calculation will be same. But in the table 4.16, there is 1 month that the
number of workers is round up (the cells with orange color). The number of
workers in December 2017 is round up because these consideration :
 December 2017
If the company use over time but just using 27 workers, and compare with the total
cost if the company using 28 workers, the comparison is like on the table below.
2.37
Table 4.17 Comparison Between 27 Workers and 28 Workers in December 2017
Use 27 workers Use 28 Workers

Demand 1428
worker needed 27 28
worker Fired 2 1
Firing cost IDR 10.000.000 IDR 5.000.000
Labor cost IDR 80.730.000 IDR 83.720.000
Unit produced 1387 1438
Net Inventory -41 10
Over Time hour 129 0,00
OT cost IDR 3.870.000 IDR -
Inventory 0 10
Holding cost IDR - IDR 750.000
Total cost IDR 94.601.358 IDR 89.470.000
As the table 4.17 shown above, the company can press the cost around IDR
5.131.358 if use 28 workers. That is why the compony will use 28 workers in
December 2017.
The inventory from December 2017 are 10 units. In order to minimize the demand
in the January 2018 that can caused the number of worker too, so the 10 units will
be allocated for January 2018. That is why the company just produce 1641 units,
not 1651 units. In the end based on table 4.16, the total cost if the company using
the mixed strategy will be IDR 611.568.000.
2.38
4.6. Stable
Stable strategy is a method using smallest workers and stable, no inventory cost.
Since there are not inventory cost used and number of workers are stable, so
overtime cost is used. Before calculate the total production cost, number of workers
needed should be found.
Table 4.18 Number of Worker Needed
Months
Days /
Month 24 26 26 23 25 23
Sum of Days 24 50 76 99 124 147
Demand 1358 1651 1689 1428 1651 1789
Sum of
Demand 1358 3009 4698 6126 7777 9566
Workers 25,33 26,94 27,67 27,70 28,07 29,13
Round Up 26 27 28 28 29 30
The workers needed is calculated by formula as belows.
𝑊 =
In this method, the lowest number of workers is choosen. So, the number of workers
needed is 26.
for Sept 2017.
𝑖 𝑖
= × = × , = ,
2.39
Table 4.19 Stable Level

Total
1 Days 24 26 26 23 25 23 147
3 Demand 1428 1651 1689 1428 1651 1689 9536
4 Demand Required 1358 1651 1689 1428 1651 1789 9566
5 Worker Needed 26 26 26 26 26 26 156
8
Hiring Cost 15.000.000 - - - - - 15.000.000 2.500.000
Laid Off Cost
10 - - - - - - 0 5.000.000
Cumulative demand is calculated by adding the previous demand. Worker needed for all period are remain same, 26 workers.
2.40
Table 4.19 Stable Level (continued)
Workers
11 Used 26 26 26 26 26 26 156
12
Labor Cost
81.120.000 87.880.000 87.880.000 77.740.000 84.500.000 77.740.000 496.860.000 130.000
Units
13 Produced 1394,04 1510,21 1510,21 1335,96 1452,13 1335,96 8538,51
14 Round Down 1394 1510 1510 1335 1452 1335 8538
Different
15 Demand 36 141 179 93 199 454 1102
Holding Cost
16 - - - - - - - 75.000
Overtime IDR
17 Hour 112,80 441,80 560,87 291,40 623,53 1422,53 3452,933333 30.000
Overtime IDR IDR IDR IDR IDR IDR IDR
18 Cost 3.384.000 13.254.000 16.826.000 8.742.000 18.706.000 42.676.000 103.588.000
19
Total Cost 99.504.000 101.134.000 104.706.000 86.482.000 103.206.000 120.416.000 615.448.000
𝑖 𝑊 = − =
2.41
=𝑊 × /𝑊 ×
= × × = IDR . .
𝑖
𝑖 =𝑊 × = × ,
𝑊
=
Different Demand is calculated by using formula as belows.
𝑖 = 𝑖 − 𝑖
backorder cost.
Overtime hour is calculated by formula as belows.Because the overtime cost is per

hour, so the cumulactive net inventory divided by 60 mins, and then multiply with
production rate is 188 mins/units.
𝑖
𝑖 = × 𝑖 / 𝑖
𝑖
labor cost, and holding cost. Total cost by using Stable Strategy is IDR
615.448.000.
2.42
4.7. Zero Inventory
Zero inventory is a method by having zero inventory in each period. The current
demand will use the net inventory before period in order to minimize cost. But if
the net inventory is negative, it is mean that the production does not achieve
demand, so that is overcomed by overtime.
The workers needed is calculated by formula as belows. Example for Sept 2017.
𝑊 = = =
𝑖 ,
𝑖 ℎ

for Sept 2017.
𝑖 𝑖
= × = × , = ,
2.43
Table 4.20 Zero Inventory Level
Months Cost / (worker

Total
Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 or unit or day)
1 Days 24 26 26 23 25 23 147
3 Demand 1428 1651 1689 1428 1651 1689 9536
4 Demand Required 1358 1651 1689 1428 1651 1789 9566
5 Net Demand 1358 1615 1678 1422 1635 1749
6 Worker Needed 25,33 27,80 28,89 27,67
29,27 34,04
173,01
7 Round Up 26 28 29 28
30 17635
8 Workers Available 20 26 28 29
28 16130
9 Workers Hired 6 2 1 02 165
10
Hiring Cost 15.000.000 5.000.000 2.500.000 - 5.000.000 12.500.000 40.000.000 2.500.000
Laid Off Cost
12 - - - 5.000.000 - - 5000000 5.000.000
with ending inventory (100 units), because the company would like to fullfill expected ending inventory. Net demand is calculated by
suctracting the current demand with previous net inventory (positive). At the end of Feb 2018, there will be holding cost since it become
expected ending inventory.
2.44
Table 4.21 Zero Inventory Level (continued)
13 Workers Used 26 28 29 28 30 35 176

Labor Cost
14 81.120.000 94.640.000 98.020.000 83.720.000 97.500.000 104.650.000 559.650.000 130.000
15 Units Produced 1394,04 1626,38 1684,47 1438,72 1675,53 1798,40 9617,553191
16 Round Down 1394 1626 1684 1438 1675 1798 9617
17 Net Inventory 36 11 6 16 40 149 258
18 Zero Inventory 0 0 0 0 0 149
19
Holding Cost
- - - - - 11.175.000 11.175.000 75.000
20 Overtime Hour 0 0 0 0 0
IDR
Overtime Cost
21 30.000
Total Cost
22 96.120.000 99.640.000 100.520.000 88.720.000 102.500.000 128.325.000 615.825.000
𝑖 𝑊 = − =
2.45
=𝑊 × /𝑊 ×
= × × = IDR . .
𝑖
𝑖 =𝑊 × = × ,
𝑊
=
= 𝑖 − 𝑖
labor cost, and holding cost. Total cost by using Zero Inventory is IDR 615.825.000.
From Module 1 : Forecasting, the best forecast demand is cyclic method. In order
to make master production schedule, there are seven methods conducted, such as
Workforce/Chase Strategy, Strategy Level (No Overtime), Strategy Level
(Overtime), Transportation Method, Mixed, Stable, and Zero Inventory. After
calculated using each method, the results are shown as belows.
Table 4.22 Cost Comparation
No Method Total Cost

1 Workforce/Chase Strategy IDR 669.910.000
2 Strategy Level (No Overtime) IDR 778.750.000
3 Strategy Level (Overtime) IDR 653.190.000
4 Transportation Method IDR 696.798.000
5 Mixed IDR 611.568.000
6 Stable IDR 615.448.000
7 Zero Inventory IDR 615.825.000
2.46
From Table 4.22, it could be concluded that Mixed strategy as the best one, with
lowest cost, which is IDR 611.568.000. This method give efficiency and
effectiveness for production.
After the best method are choosen, so the master production schedule could be
determined as belows.
Table 4.23. Number of Workers from Monday to Saturday
Shift/Day Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday

10 10 10 10 10
Shift 1 10 workers
10 10 10 10 10
Shift 2 10 workers
Total 20 20 20 20 20
20 workers
Workers workers workers workers workers workers
Table 4.24. Master Production Schedule

Working 24 26 26 23 25 23 147
Days
Off 6 5 4 8 6 5 34
Total Days 30 31 30 31 31 28 181
Demand 1358 1651 1689 1428 1641 1789 9556
Production 1340 1626 1684 1438 1619 1747 9456
Ending 0 0 0 10 0 100 110
Inventory
Mix strategy is considered as the best method in terms of minimizing the total cost
in order to achieve effectiveness and efficiency.
2.47
CHAPTER V
CONCLUSION
Aggregate Planning (AP) is an operational activity to determine the amount and
time of production in the future. Aggregate Planning is also defined as an attempt
to match the supply and demand of a product or service by determining the exact
amount and timing of input, transformation, and output.
From this report, it could be concluded that Mixed strategy as the best one, with
2.48
REFERENCE
Gallego, G., (2001). Production Management Lecture 5. Retrieved October 5th,

2017 from http://www.columbia.edu/~gmg2/4000/pdf/lect_05.pdf
Ong, J. O. (2013). Production Planning and Inventory Control Course Note.

Cikarang: President University.
Sipper, D., & Bulfin. JR, R. L. (1997). Production : Planning, Control, and
Integration. New York City: McGraw Hill Education.
2.49
TABLE OF CONTENTS
CHAPTER I ......................................................................................................... 3.2
INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................... 3.2
1.1 Background ........................................................................................... 3.2
1.2 Objectives ................................................................................................... 3.3
1.3 Tools and Equipment(s) ............................................................................. 3.3
1.4 Steps ........................................................................................................... 3.3
CHAPTER II ........................................................................................................ 3.4
2.1 Definition of Capacity ................................................................................ 3.4
2.2 Type of Capacity ........................................................................................ 3.5
2.3 Definition of Capacity Planning ................................................................ 3.5
2.4 Measure of Capacity .................................................................................. 3.6
2.5 Resource Planning ...................................................................................... 3.8
2.6 Capacity Bills (Bill of Labor Approach) .................................................... 3.8
2.6.1 Product Structure..................................................................................... 3.8
2.6.2 Bill of Materials ...................................................................................... 3.8
2.7 Procedure of Capacity Bills ....................................................................... 3.9
CHAPTER III .................................................................................................... 3.10
DATA COLLECTION....................................................................................... 3.10
CHAPTER IV .................................................................................................... 3.15
DATA ANALYSIS ............................................................................................ 3.15
4.1. Routing Data ........................................................................................... 3.15
4.2. Bill of Capacity ....................................................................................... 3.16
4.3. Total Required Capacity ......................................................................... 3.16
4.4. Available Capacity .................................................................................. 3.19
4.5. Comparing Available Capacity with Required Capacity ........................ 3.38
CHAPTER V...................................................................................................... 3.84
CONCLUSION .................................................................................................. 3.84
REFERENCE ..................................................................................................... 3.85
3.1
CHAPTER I
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background
The production system design planning considers input requirements, conversion
process and output. After considering the forecast and long-term planning, the
organization should undertake the capacity planning. Capacity Planning is
determining the level of capacity needed to achieve scheduled production that
comparing with the available capacity and planning necessary adjustments in
capacity levels or schedules. Capacity planning plays an important role decision-
making process, example: for extension of existing operations, modification to
product lines, starting new products, etc.
A technique used to identify and measure overall capacity of production is referred

to as strategic capacity planning. Strategic capacity planning is essential to help the
organization in meeting the future requirements of the organization. Capacity
planning based on the timeline is classified into three main categories such as long
range, medium range and short range. Long term capacity is dependent on various
other capacities like design capacity, production capacity, sustainable capacity and
effective capacity. Medium term capacity is the strategic capacity planning
undertaken by organization for 2 to 3 years of a time frame. Short term capacity is
the strategic planning undertaken by organization for a daily week or quarterly time
frame.
The ultimate goal of capacity planning is to meet the current and future level of
requirement at a minimal wastage. The benefits of capacity planning are maximize
the utilization, get the real time data (accurate information on team availability for
more chance of on time delivery), get the better planning (know the demand for
resources plan for it), help the employee to avoid the task clashes and avoid burnout,
and organize the good time (know what’s coming up and prioritize what’s
important).
3.2
This report will record all the step based on the data’s problem. The data will be
analyzed and the conclusion can be taken to comparing the available capacity with
the required capacity (to know the capacity is fulfill the demand).
1.2 Objectives
 To calculate required capacity in order to producing product X

 To calculate available capacity to fulfill the required capacity
 To compare the required capacity and available capacity and provide solution
to make it balance.

 Microsoft Excel is used for the calculation
1.4 Steps
There are several steps to analyze the data, which are:
 Calculate the routing data to producing product X
 Calculate the Bill of Resources product X in each workstation
 Calculate the total required capacity
 Calculate the available capacity
 Compare the required capacity and available capacity
 Find solutions to make the available capacity and required capacity become
balance.
3.3
CHAPTER II
LITERATURE STUDY
2.1 Definition of Capacity

According to Heizer and Render (2005), Capacity is the seasonal output level of a
system or facility in a given period. There is also defined capacity as the seasonal
productive ability of a facility that is usually depicted as the volume of time per
time output. While Josep G. Monks (1987) in his book "Operation Management
Theory and Problems" states as follows, "Capacity was defined as a measure of the
ability to produce or serve, which is sufficient for worker or equipment to do the
job".
From the definition can be concluded that capacity is the level of the ability of a
company to produce a good or service supported by the availability of facilities in
the form of labor and equipment, and usually stated in the amount of output that
can be produced for a certain period of time.
Operations management needs to consider capacity for the following reasons:
 They need enough capacity to meet customer demand.

 Capacity affects the cost efficiency of operation, ease or difficulty of output
scheduling, and facility maintenance cost.
 Capacity requires investment.
Meanwhile, according to Handoko (2010), Capacity is an output stage, an output
quantity in a given period and is the highest quantity possible during that time
period, and he also defines various capacity definitions where, Capacity is a
measurement of the productive capacity of a facility per unit of time.
3.4
2.2 Type of Capacity
In production and operations management, there are three types of capacities:
 Potential Capacity
Capacity that can be formed to help leaders to makes decision. This is the
core of long-term decisions that will not be affected by production
management per day.
 Immediate Capacity
The quantity of production capacity that can be formed becomes available in
a short period of time. This is the maximum capacity of the Potential capacity
(assumed to be used productively).
 Effective capacity
Effective capacity is an important concept. Not all production capacities can
actually be used or wasted. It is important for a production manager to see
whether, the actual capacity can be achieved. The difference between the
capacity of an organization and the demand of all the customers is about
inefficiency, as well as the source cannot be used or cannot be met by the
customer. The demand for an organization's capacity varies based on changes
in available products, such as the increase and decrease in the quantity of
production of the product available, or create new products. The best use of
available capacity can meet renewal in overall equipment effectiveness
(OEE). Capacity can be increased through the introduction of new techniques,
equipment and materials, the addition of the number of labors or machinery,
increasing the number of hours worked, or the provision of production
facilities.
2.3 Definition of Capacity Planning

Capacity planning is the first step when an organization decides to produce more of
a new or existing product. Once capacity is evaluated and a need for new or
expanded facilities is determined, facility location and process technology activities
occur. Too much capacity would require exploring ways to reduce capacity, such
as temporarily closing, selling, or consolidating that might involve relocation,
3.5
combining of technologies, or a rearrangement of equipment and processes.
Capacity planning normally involves the following activities
 Assessing existing capacity

 Forecasting capacity needs
 Identifying alternative ways to modify capacity
 Evaluating financial, economical, and technological capacity alternatives
 Selecting a capacity alternative most suited to achieve strategic mission
There are several objective of capacity planning, the first is feasibility for instance,
and internal needs must be within the capability of the operations. And the next is
system and optimality for instance, it is desirable to determine the least costly way
to meet the capacity needs.
Capacity Planning is vital in operations management. Capacity is the rate of

productive capability of a facility. Capacity decisions need acute and careful
attention by concerned persons as almost everything of the operations is related
with capacity. It is important as it determines the optimal level of production and
uninterrupted production run. There are several other important causes, for which
the entrepreneurs and managers must address capacity decisions. In this unit it has
been tried deliberately to introduce important notions regarding these issues.
Therefore this unit includes capacity, capacity planning and importance of capacity
decision; capacity requirement, effective capacity determinants; capacity strategy.
2.4 Measure of Capacity

Measure of capacity is about measured in the standard hour.
𝑖
ℎ = 𝑖 (2-1)
𝑖
There are four methods to measured standard time namely,
 Direct time study, in which the time study analyst observes an operator
performing the task a number of times, records the time taken, and rates the
performances.
3.6
 Predetermined motion time data, where the analyst divides the task into
elements and then applies a standard time to each element as specified in
commercially tables such as MTM (Motion Time Measurement) or work
factor.
 Standard data, which is similar to predetermined motion time data except
that the tables are developed internally, usually based on production of
similar parts or products.
 Work sampling, which is similar to direct time study except the analyst,
instead of observing an operator continuously, observes one or more
operation number of times at randomly selected intervals.
Two system performance measurements usually useful are Utilization and
Efficiency. Utilization is the percentage of design capacity that has actually been
achieved. Meanwhile, Efficiency is the percentage of effective capacity that has
actually been achieved. How the facility is used and managed will determine
whether it is difficult to achieve 100% efficiency. Operations managers tend to be
evaluated at their level of efficiency.
Output in Standard Hour Will Depend on:
 Available work hours.

 The fraction of available hours actually worked (utilization level).
 The efficiency of the operator (efficiency level).
ℎ
𝑖𝑖 𝑖 = (2-2)
ℎ 𝑖
The number of hours actually worked may be leas that the available hours
because of such factors as machine downtime and absenteeism.
ℎ
𝑖 𝑖 = ℎ
(2-3)
Efficiency is a measure of the productivity of worker, work center,

department, or plant. Through the level of utilization and efficiency, it will
be known how far the capacity planning goes accordingly.
3.7
2.5 Resource Planning
Resource planning determines the resources needed to produce the production
plan. The resource plan has the longest planning horizon of all the capacity
planning activities. It extend put as far as the production plan, typically five years.
Time buckets are months or quarters, and the plan is revised monthly or quarterly.
The function of resource planning is to make the optimal usage of resources and
get the optimal benefit and to provide a basis for planning for planning long lead
time change in capacity. The techniques used in resource planning are capacity
planning factors and bills of capacity.
2.6 Capacity Bills (Bill of Labor Approach)

Input of capacity bills consists of master product schedule (MPS), product
structure, bill of material (BOM), and data routing that gives the data about
run time, setup time and economic production quantity (EPQ).
2.6.1 Product Structure

Production structure is a description of the link between the product and its
constituent components such as component type, amount required, level or level of
constituent.
Figure 2.1 Product Stucture
2.6.2 Bill of Materials

Bill of Materials (BOM) is a final product consisting of a list of items, materials,
or materials needed to assemble, mix or manufacture the finished product. Bill of
material consists of various forms and can be used for various purposes. Bill of
material is made as part of the design process and is used by the manufacturing
3.8
engineer to determine the tem to be purchased or produced. Production and
inventory control planning uses BOMs that are linked to the master production
schedule, to determine which release items are purchased or produced. The
meaning of X/Y is X unit of component or raw material needed to manufacture Y
unit production in the previous level.
2.7 Procedure of Capacity Bills

The steps for procedure of capacity bills are:
 Calculate the standard run hours (SRH)
𝑖
𝐻= 𝐸
𝑖 (2-4)
 Calculate the bill of resource (BOR) or bill of capacity.

Bill of capacity is the total time needed to make 1 product each work
center.
 Calculate the total required capacity.
 Compare the available capacity with required capacity that calculated in
3 steps above.
3.9
CHAPTER III
DATA COLLECTION
In this capacity planning, the data of master production schedule (MPS) are needed.
From Module 2 : Aggregate Planning, there are several aggregate planning
methods used. The comparation of analysis results are showed as belows.
Table 3.1 Cost Comparation

No Method Total Cost
1 Workforce/Chase Strategy IDR 669.910.000
2 Strategy Level (No Overtime) IDR 778.750.000
3 Strategy Level (Overtime) IDR 653.190.000
4 Transportation Method IDR 696.798.000
5 Mixed IDR 611.568.000
6 Stable IDR 615.448.000
7 Zero Inventory IDR 615.825.000
From Table 3.1, it could be concluded that Mixed strategy as the best one, with
After the best method are choosen, so the master production schedule could be
determined as belows.
Table 3.2. Master Production Schedule (MPS)
Months
Days 24 26 26 23 25 23
Unit Produced
1340 1626 1684 1438 1619 1747
of RT/month
Unit Produced
18 25 5 0 22 42
of OT/month
Total Unit
1358 1651 1689 1438 1641 1789
Produced
3.10
Table 3.3. Unit Produced / Day in Each Month
Months
Unit
Produced 56,58 63,50 64,96 62,52 65,64 77,78
/ Day
Unit Produced/Day is calculated by dividing total unit produced with total days in
a month. After that, multiplying the unit produced/day with total days in a week to
get unit produced/week, result showed in Table 3.4.
Table 3.4. Unit Produced / Week
Working Unit Produced Unit Produced / Week

Month Week
Days / Week (Rounded)
1 7 396,0833333 396
2 6 339,5 339
Sep-17
3 5 282,9166667 283
4 6 339,5 339
5 6 381 381
6 6 381 381
Oct-17
7 6 381 381
8 6 381 381
Oct-17 (2) &
9 6 386,8461538 387
Nov-17 (4)
10 6 389,7692308 390
Nov-17 11 6 389,7692308 390
12 6 389,7692308 390
Nov-17 (4) &
13 5 322,367893 322
Dec-17 (1)
14 6 375,1304348 375
15 6 375,1304348 375
Dec-17
16 6 375,1304348 375
17 4 250,0869565 250
18 4 262,56 263
19 6 393,84 394
Jan-18
20 6 393,84 394
21 6 393,84 394
Jan-18 (3) &
22 6 430,2678261 430
Feb-18 (3)
23 6 466,6956522 467
24 5 388,9130435 389
Feb-18
25 6 466,6956522 467
26 3 233,3478261 233
3.11
On the Table 3.5., it is showed the number of working days from Sept 2017 until
February 2018. It is based on Indonesia holidays calender. The calender are shown
in the figure belows.
Table 3.5. Number of Working Days from September 2017 until February 2018

Working
24 26 26 23 25 23
Days 147
Off 6 5 4 8 6 5 34
Total Days 30 31 30 31 31 28 181
Figure 3.1. Calender Sept 2017 – Dec 2017
3.12
Figure 3.2. Calender Jan 2018 – Feb 2018
Information about the holiday name are showed as belows. In the holiday days, it
is mean that the production process do not works.
Table 3.6. Holiday Name
Date Holiday Name

1st Sept 2017 Idul Adha
21th Sept 2017 Tahun Baru Hijriyah
1st December 2017 Maulid Nabi
25th December 2017 Christmas
26th December 2017 Cuti Bersama
1st January 2018 New Year
16th February 2018 Chinese New Year
Some related data in order to analyze the capacity planning, such as product
structure and routing data as belows.
Figure 3.3 Product Structure
3.13
In order to make the capacity planning, data such as run time, set up time, and EPQ
are needed to analyze and create the RCCP. So, below are shown the routing data.
Table 3.7. Routing Data
Item Work Center Setup Time (min Run Time EPQ

Assembly 0 1,2 1
X
Inspection 0 1,6 1
101 15 1,55
102 30 1,68
B 103 20 2,05 30
104 25 0,94
106 0 1,06
101 15 2,088
102 20 1
C 25
103 10 1,25
105 0 2,4
101 12 0,98
102 20 1,36
D 104 40 0,95 24
106 10 1,82
107 15 1,5
102 10 0,72
104 10 0,6
E 20
107 15 0,48
108 0 0,81
101 10 1,5
104 10 1,36
F 105 30 2,1 25
106 15 1,1
108 0 1,45
3.14
CHAPTER IV
DATA ANALYSIS
4.1. Routing Data

The function of this routing data is to calculate requirement standard run hours
(SRH) for producing product X. The formula of SRH is as belows. For example
part X Assembly, the calculation of SRH as belows. This SRH will be multplied by
quantity, so the requirement SRH calculated.
𝑖
𝐻= + 𝑖
𝐻= + , = , 𝑖
𝐻= 𝐻× 𝑖
Below are shown the routing data to producing product X.

Setup Run
Work Req. SRH
Part/Item Time Time EPQ SRH Quantity
Center (min)
(min) (min)
Assembly 0 1,2 1 1,20 1 1,20
X
Inspection 0 1,6 1 1,60 1 1,60
101 15 1,55 30 2,05 2 4,10
102 30 1,68 30 2,68 2 5,36
B 103 20 2,05 30 2,72 2 5,43
104 25 0,94 30 1,77 2 3,55
106 0 1,06 30 1,06 2 2,12
101 15 2,088 25 2,69 1 2,69
102 20 1 25 1,80 1 1,80
C
103 10 1,25 25 1,65 1 1,65
105 0 2,4 25 2,40 1 2,40
101 12 0,98 24 1,48 6 8,88
102 20 1,36 24 2,19 6 13,16
D 104 40 0,95 24 2,62 6 15,70
106 10 1,82 24 2,24 6 13,42
107 15 1,5 24 2,13 6 12,75
3.15
Table 4.1. Routing Data (continued)
E 102 10 0,72 20 1,22 28 34,16
104 10 0,6 20 1,10 28 30,80
107 15 0,48 20 1,23 28 34,44
108 0 0,81 20 0,81 28 22,68
F 101 10 1,5 25 1,90 2 3,80
104 10 1,36 25 1,76 2 3,52
105 30 2,1 25 3,30 2 6,60
106 15 1,1 25 1,70 2 3,40
108 0 1,45 25 1,45 2 2,90
4.2. Bill of Capacity

After determining the routing data, now the bill of capacity of each workstation is
calculated as belows.
Table 4.2. Bill of Capacity
SRH Required for Product X
Work Center (mins)
Assembly 1,2
Inspection 1,6
101 19,47
102 54,48
103 7,08
104 53,57
105 9,00
106 18,94
107 47,19
108 25,58
4.3. Total Required Capacity

After the Bill of Capacity has been calculated, now the total required capacity could
be found. From data collection, it is already known the unit produced in each week
as belows.
To calculate the required capacity by using formula as belows.
𝑖 = / 𝑖 × 𝑖 /
3.16
Table 4.3. Total Required Capacity
Work Center
Week
Assembly Inspection 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108
Week 1 475,20 633,60 7709,33 21574,08 2805,00 21212,40 3564,00 7500,24 18687,24 10129,68
Week 2 406,80 542,40 6599,65 18468,72 2401,25 18159,10 3051,00 6420,66 15997,41 8671,62
Week 3 339,60 452,80 5509,44 15417,84 2004,58 15159,37 2547,00 5360,02 13354,77 7239,14
Week 4 406,80 542,40 6599,65 18468,72 2401,25 18159,10 3051,00 6420,66 15997,41 8671,62
Week 5 457,20 609,60 7417,31 20756,88 2698,75 20408,90 3429,00 7216,14 17979,39 9745,98
Week 6 457,20 609,60 7417,31 20756,88 2698,75 20408,90 3429,00 7216,14 17979,39 9745,98
Week 7 457,20 609,60 7417,31 20756,88 2698,75 20408,90 3429,00 7216,14 17979,39 9745,98
Week 8 457,20 609,60 7417,31 20756,88 2698,75 20408,90 3429,00 7216,14 17979,39 9745,98
Week 9 464,40 619,20 7534,12 21083,76 2741,25 20730,30 3483,00 7329,78 18262,53 9899,46
Week 10 468,00 624,00 7592,52 21247,20 2762,50 20891,00 3510,00 7386,60 18404,10 9976,20
Week 11 468,00 624,00 7592,52 21247,20 2762,50 20891,00 3510,00 7386,60 18404,10 9976,20
Week 12 468,00 624,00 7592,52 21247,20 2762,50 20891,00 3510,00 7386,60 18404,10 9976,20
Week 13 386,40 515,20 6268,70 17542,56 2280,83 17248,47 2898,00 6098,68 15195,18 8236,76
Week 14 450,00 600,00 7300,50 20430,00 2656,25 20087,50 3375,00 7102,50 17696,25 9592,50
Week 15 450,00 600,00 7300,50 20430,00 2656,25 20087,50 3375,00 7102,50 17696,25 9592,50
Week 16 450,00 600,00 7300,50 20430,00 2656,25 20087,50 3375,00 7102,50 17696,25 9592,50
Week 17 300,00 400,00 4867,00 13620,00 1770,83 13391,67 2250,00 4735,00 11797,50 6395,00
Week 18 315,60 420,80 5120,08 14328,24 1862,92 14088,03 2367,00 4981,22 12410,97 6727,54
Week 19 472,80 630,40 7670,39 21465,12 2790,83 21105,27 3546,00 7462,36 18592,86 10078,52
Week 20 472,80 630,40 7670,39 21465,12 2790,83 21105,27 3546,00 7462,36 18592,86 10078,52
Week 21 472,80 630,40 7670,39 21465,12 2790,83 21105,27 3546,00 7462,36 18592,86 10078,52
Week 22 516,00 688,00 8371,24 23426,40 3045,83 23033,67 3870,00 8144,20 20291,70 10999,40
3.17
Table 4.3. Total Required Capacity (continued)
Week 23 560,40 747,20 9091,56 25442,16 3307,92 25015,63 4203,00 8844,98 22037,73 11945,86
Week 24 466,80 622,40 7573,05 21192,72 2755,42 20837,43 3501,00 7367,66 18356,91 9950,62
Week 25 560,40 747,20 9091,56 25442,16 3307,92 25015,63 4203,00 8844,98 22037,73 11945,86
Week 26 279,60 372,80 4536,04 12693,84 1650,42 12481,03 2097,00 4413,02 10995,27 5960,14
For example to calculate the week 1 in workstation assembly, it is calculated bu formula as belows.
𝑖
𝑖 𝑖 = × = , × = , 𝑖
To spread the number of workers to each workstation, the proportion is used between the workstation as belows.
Table 4.4. Proportion in Each Work Center
Work Center
TOTAL 11479,20 15305,60 186230,89 521155,68 67759,17 512418,73 86094,00 181180,04 451419,54 244698,28
PROPORTION 0,01 0,01 0,08 0,23 0,03 0,22 0,04 0,08 0,20 0,11
For example, proportion of number of workers in assembly, it is calculated by formula as belows.

,
𝑖 = = ,
, + , + ⋯+ .
This proportion will be used in order to calculate the available capacity.
3.18
4.4. Available Capacity
In calculating the available capacity, first the number of workers in each
workstation should be determined first. Below are the calculations.
In Table 4.6., it is showed number of workers needed in each month (known by

mixed plan aggregate planning). Here, assumed that regular time per shift in a day
is 7 hours and maximum overtime in a dayper worker is 3 hours.
Table 4.5. Number of Workers
Months
Workers
25 28 29 28 29 34
Needed
Regular
Time/day/shift 7,0 7,0 7,0 7,0 7,0 7,0
(hour)
Over
Time/day 3,00 3,00 3,00 3,00 3,00 3,00
(hour)
In Table 4.7., the number of workers are divided into 2 shifts as belows.
Table 4.6. Number of Workers in Each Shift
Shift\month Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18

Shift 1 12 14 14 14 14 17
Shift 2 13 14 15 14 15 17
Total 25 28 29 28 29 34
Below are proportions in each workstation. In order to get number of workers (for
RT) in each workstation, the proportion will be mulplied by total number of workers
in a month. And then, number of workers (for OT) in each workstation, the
proportion will be mulplied by number of workers in shift 2 in a month.
Table 4.7. Proportion between Workstation
Work Center Assembly Inspection 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108
Proportion 0,01 0,01 0,08 0,23 0,03 0,22 0,04 0,08 0,20 0,11
3.19
Table 4.7. Number of Workers in Each Workstation/Month
Type of
Period Assembly Inspection 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 Total
Time\WC
Sep-17 Reguler Time 1 1 2 5 1 5 1 2 5 2 25
Over Time 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 13
Oct-17 Reguler Time 1 1 2 6 1 6 1 2 6 2 28
Over Time 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 2 2 14
Nov-17 Reguler Time 1 1 2 6 1 6 1 2 6 3 29
Over Time 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 1 2 2 15
Dec-17 Reguler Time 1 1 2 6 1 6 1 2 6 2 28
Over Time 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 2 2 14
Jan-18 Reguler Time 1 1 2 6 1 6 1 2 6 3 29
Over Time 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 1 2 2 15
Feb-18 Reguler Time 1 1 3 7 1 7 1 3 7 3 34
Over Time 1 1 1 3 1 3 1 1 3 2 17
For example, to calculate regular time and overtime for assembly, the calculation as belows.
𝑊 𝑖 𝑖 = 𝑖 × Total number of workers
𝑊 𝑖 𝑖 = , × = , =
𝑊 𝑖 𝑖 = 𝑖 × umber of workers in Shift
𝑊 𝑖 𝑖 = , × = , =
Next, determining the total available capacity in each workstation. There are 10 workstation and the calculations of total minutes in
each workstation as belows.
3.20
 Assembly
Below are show the total available capacity (minutes) in assembly workstation. The total available capacity calculated by formula as
belows. For example, the week 1 in Sept 17, the calculation is as belows.
𝑖 𝑖 𝑖 =𝑊 × 𝑊 ×𝐻 + 𝑊 ×𝐻 × 𝑖
𝑖 𝑖 𝑖 = × × + × × 𝑖 = 𝑖
Table 4.8. Total Available Capacity (minutes) in Assembly Workstation
Working REGULAR TIME OVER TIME TOTAL TOTAL

Month WEEK
Days (WD) WORKERS HOURS WORKERS HOURS (HOURS) (MINUTES)
1 7 1 7 1 3 70 4200
2 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
Sep-17
3 5 1 7 1 3 50 3000
4 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
5 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
6 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
Oct-17
7 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
8 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
Oct-17 (2) & Nov-17 (4) 9 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
10 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
Nov-17 11 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
12 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
3.21
Table 4.8. Total Available Capacity (minutes) in Assembly Workstation (continued)
Nov-17 (4) & Dec-17 (1) 13 5 1 7 1 3 50 3000

14 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
15 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
Dec-17
16 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
17 4 1 7 1 3 40 2400
18 4 1 7 1 3 40 2400
19 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
Jan-18
20 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
21 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
Jan-18 (3) & Feb-18 (3) 22 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
23 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
24 5 1 7 1 3 50 3000
Feb-18
25 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
26 3 1 7 1 3 30 1800
 Inspection
Below are show the total available capacity (minutes) in inspection workstation. The total available capacity calculated by formula as
belows. For example, the week 1 in Sept 17, the calculation is as belows.
𝑖 𝑖 𝑖 =𝑊 × 𝑊 ×𝐻 + 𝑊 ×𝐻 × 𝑖
𝑖 𝑖 𝑖 = × × + × × 𝑖 = 𝑖
3.22
Table 4.9. Total Available Capacity (minutes) in Inspection Workstation

Month WEEK
Days WORKERS HOURS WORKERS HOURS (HOURS) (MINUTES)
1 7 1 7 1 3 70 4200
2 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
Sep-17
3 5 1 7 1 3 50 3000
4 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
5 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
6 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
Oct-17
7 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
8 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
Oct-17 (2) & Nov-17 (4) 9 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
10 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
Nov-17 11 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
12 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
Nov-17 (4) & Dec-17 (1) 13 5 1 7 1 3 50 3000
14 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
15 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
Dec-17
16 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
17 4 1 7 1 3 40 2400
18 4 1 7 1 3 40 2400
19 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
Jan-18
20 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
21 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
Jan-18 (3) & Feb-18 (3) 22 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
3.23
Table 4.9. Total Available Capacity (minutes) in Inspection Workstation (continued)
23 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
24 5 1 7 1 3 50 3000
Feb-18
25 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
26 3 1 7 1 3 30 1800
 WC 101
Below are show the total available capacity (minutes) in 101 workstation. The total available capacity calculated by formula as belows.
For example, the week 1 in Sept 17, the calculation is as belows.
𝑖 𝑖 𝑖 =𝑊 × 𝑊 ×𝐻 + 𝑊 ×𝐻 × 𝑖
𝑖 𝑖 𝑖 = × × + × × 𝑖 = 𝑖
Table 4.10. Total Available Capacity (minutes) in 101 Workstation

Month WEEK
1 7 2 7 1 3 119 7140
2 6 2 7 1 3 102 6120
Sep-17
3 5 2 7 1 3 85 5100
4 6 2 7 1 3 102 6120
5 6 2 7 1 3 102 6120
6 6 2 7 1 3 102 6120
Oct-17
7 6 2 7 1 3 102 6120
8 6 2 7 1 3 102 6120
3.24
Table 4.10. Total Available Capacity (minutes) in 101 Workstation (continued)
Oct-17 (2) & Nov-17
9 6 2 7 2 3 120 7200
(4)
10 6 2 7 2 3 120 7200
Nov-17 11 6 2 7 2 3 120 7200
12 6 2 7 2 3 120 7200
Nov-17 (4) & Dec-17
13 5 2 7 2 3 100 6000
(1)
14 6 2 7 1 3 102 6120
15 6 2 7 1 3 102 6120
Dec-17
16 6 2 7 1 3 102 6120
17 4 2 7 1 3 68 4080
18 4 2 7 2 3 80 4800
19 6 2 7 2 3 120 7200
Jan-18
20 6 2 7 2 3 120 7200
21 6 2 7 2 3 120 7200
Jan-18 (3) & Feb-18 (3) 22 6 3 7 2 3 162 9720
23 6 3 7 1 3 144 8640
24 5 3 7 1 3 120 7200
Feb-18
25 6 3 7 1 3 144 8640
26 3 3 7 1 3 72 4320
 WC 102
3.25
𝑖 𝑖 𝑖 =𝑊 × 𝑊 ×𝐻 + 𝑊 ×𝐻 × 𝑖
𝑖 𝑖 𝑖 = × × + × × 𝑖 = 𝑖
REGULAR TIME OVER TIME TOTAL TOTAL

Month WEEK Working Days
WORKERS HOURS WORKERS HOURS (HOURS) (MINUTES)
1 7 5 7 2 3 287 17220
2 6 5 7 2 3 246 14760
Sep-17
3 5 5 7 2 3 205 12300
4 6 5 7 2 3 246 14760
5 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280
6 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280
Oct-17
7 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280
8 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280
Oct-17 (2) & Nov-17
9 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280
(4)
10 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280
Nov-17 11 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280
12 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280
Nov-17 (4) & Dec-17
13 5 6 7 2 3 240 14400
(1)
14 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280
15 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280
Dec-17
16 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280
17 4 6 7 2 3 192 11520
3.26
18 4 6 7 2 3 192 11520
19 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280
Jan-18
20 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280
21 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280
Jan-18 (3) & Feb-18 (3) 22 6 7 7 3 3 348 20880
23 6 7 7 3 3 348 20880
24 5 7 7 3 3 290 17400
Feb-18
25 6 7 7 3 3 348 20880
26 3 7 7 3 3 174 10440
 WC 103
𝑖 𝑖 𝑖 =𝑊 × 𝑊 ×𝐻 + 𝑊 ×𝐻 × 𝑖
𝑖 𝑖 𝑖 = × × + × × 𝑖 = 𝑖

1 7 1 7 1 3 70 4200
Sep-17 2 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
3 5 1 7 1 3 50 3000
3.27
4 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
5 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
6 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
Oct-17
7 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
8 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
Oct-17 (2) & Nov-17 (4) 9 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
10 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
Nov-17 11 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
12 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
Nov-17 (4) & Dec-17 (1) 13 5 1 7 1 3 50 3000
14 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
15 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
Dec-17
16 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
17 4 1 7 1 3 40 2400
18 4 1 7 1 3 40 2400
19 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
Jan-18
20 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
21 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
Jan-18 (3) & Feb-18 (3) 22 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
23 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
24 5 1 7 1 3 50 3000
Feb-18
25 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
26 3 1 7 1 3 30 1800
3.28
 WC 104
𝑖 𝑖 𝑖 =𝑊 × 𝑊 ×𝐻 + 𝑊 ×𝐻 × 𝑖
𝑖 𝑖 𝑖 = × × + × × 𝑖 = 𝑖

Month WEEK
1 7 5 7 2 3 287 17220
2 6 5 7 2 3 246 14760
Sep-17
3 5 5 7 2 3 205 12300
4 6 5 7 2 3 246 14760
5 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280
6 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280
Oct-17
7 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280
8 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280
Oct-17 (2) & Nov-17
9 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280
(4)
10 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280
Nov-17 11 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280
12 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280
3.29
Nov-17 (4) & Dec-17
13 5 6 7 2 3 240 14400
(1)
14 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280
15 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280
Dec-17
16 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280
17 4 6 7 2 3 192 11520
18 4 6 7 2 3 192 11520
19 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280
Jan-18
20 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280
21 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280
Jan-18 (3) & Feb-18
22 6 7 7 3 3 348 20880
(3)
23 6 7 7 3 3 348 20880
24 5 7 7 3 3 290 17400
Feb-18
25 6 7 7 3 3 348 20880
26 3 7 7 3 3 174 10440
 WC 105
𝑖 𝑖 𝑖 =𝑊 × 𝑊 ×𝐻 + 𝑊 ×𝐻 × 𝑖
𝑖 𝑖 𝑖 = × × + × × 𝑖 = 𝑖
3.30

1 7 1 7 1 3 70 4200
2 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
Sep-17
3 5 1 7 1 3 50 3000
4 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
5 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
6 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
Oct-17
7 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
8 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
Oct-17 (2) & Nov-
9 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
17 (4)
10 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
Nov-17 11 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
12 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
Nov-17 (4) & Dec-17
13 5 1 7 1 3 50 3000
(1)
14 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
15 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
Dec-17
16 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
17 4 1 7 1 3 40 2400
18 4 1 7 1 3 40 2400
Jan-18 19 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
20 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
3.31
21 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
Jan-18 (3) & Feb-18
22 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
(3)
23 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
24 5 1 7 1 3 50 3000
Feb-18
25 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600
26 3 1 7 1 3 30 1800
 WC 106
𝑖 𝑖 𝑖 =𝑊 × 𝑊 ×𝐻 + 𝑊 ×𝐻 × 𝑖
𝑖 𝑖 𝑖 = × × + × × 𝑖 = 𝑖

Working
Month WEEK Days
(HOURS) (MINUTES)
WORKERS HOURS WORKERS HOURS
1 7 2 7 1 3 119 7140
2 6 2 7 1 3 102 6120
Sep-17
3 5 2 7 1 3 85 5100
4 6 2 7 1 3 102 6120
3.32
5 6 2 7 1 3 102 6120
6 6 2 7 1 3 102 6120
Oct-17
7 6 2 7 1 3 102 6120
8 6 2 7 1 3 102 6120
Oct-17 (2) & Nov-17
9 6 2 7 1 3 102 6120
(4)
10 6 2 7 1 3 102 6120
Nov-17 11 6 2 7 1 3 102 6120
12 6 2 7 1 3 102 6120
Nov-17 (4) & Dec-17
13 5 2 7 1 3 85 5100
(1)
14 6 2 7 1 3 102 6120
15 6 2 7 1 3 102 6120
Dec-17
16 6 2 7 1 3 102 6120
17 4 2 7 1 3 68 4080
18 4 2 7 1 3 68 4080
19 6 2 7 1 3 102 6120
Jan-18
20 6 2 7 1 3 102 6120
21 6 2 7 1 3 102 6120
Jan-18 (3) & Feb-18
22 6 3 7 1 3 144 8640
(3)
23 6 3 7 1 3 144 8640
24 5 3 7 1 3 120 7200
Feb-18
25 6 3 7 1 3 144 8640
26 3 3 7 1 3 72 4320
3.33
 WC 107
𝑖 𝑖 𝑖 =𝑊 × 𝑊 ×𝐻 + 𝑊 ×𝐻 × 𝑖
𝑖 𝑖 𝑖 = × × + × × 𝑖 = 𝑖

Month WEEK
1 7 5 7 2 3 287 17220
2 6 5 7 2 3 246 14760
Sep-17
3 5 5 7 2 3 205 12300
4 6 5 7 2 3 246 14760
5 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280
6 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280
Oct-17
7 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280
8 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280
Oct-17 (2) & Nov-17
9 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280
(4)
10 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280
Nov-17 11 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280
12 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280
3.34
Nov-17 (4) & Dec-17
13 5 6 7 2 3 240 14400
(1)
14 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280
15 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280
Dec-17
16 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280
17 4 6 7 2 3 192 11520
18 4 6 7 2 3 192 11520
19 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280
Jan-18
20 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280
21 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280
Jan-18 (3) & Feb-18
22 6 7 7 3 3 348 20880
(3)
23 6 7 7 3 3 348 20880
24 5 7 7 3 3 290 17400
Feb-18
25 6 7 7 3 3 348 20880
26 3 7 7 3 3 174 10440
 WC 108
𝑖 𝑖 𝑖 =𝑊 × 𝑊 ×𝐻 + 𝑊 ×𝐻 × 𝑖
𝑖 𝑖 𝑖 = × × + × × 𝑖 = 𝑖
3.35

Month WEEK
1 7 2 7 1 3 119 7140
2 6 2 7 1 3 102 6120
Sep-17
3 5 2 7 1 3 85 5100
4 6 2 7 1 3 102 6120
5 6 2 7 2 3 120 7200
6 6 2 7 2 3 120 7200
Oct-17
7 6 2 7 2 3 120 7200
8 6 2 7 2 3 120 7200
Oct-17 (2) & Nov-17
9 6 3 7 2 3 148 8880
(4)
10 6 3 7 2 3 162 9720
Nov-17 11 6 3 7 2 3 162 9720
12 6 3 7 2 3 162 9720
Nov-17 (4) & Dec-17
13 5 3 7 2 3 128 7680
(1)
14 6 2 7 2 3 120 7200
15 6 2 7 2 3 120 7200
Dec-17
16 6 2 7 2 3 120 7200
17 4 2 7 2 3 80 4800
3.36
18 4 3 7 2 3 108 6480
19 6 3 7 2 3 162 9720
Jan-18
20 6 3 7 2 3 162 9720
21 6 3 7 2 3 162 9720
Jan-18 (3) & Feb-18
22 6 3 7 2 3 162 9720
(3)
23 6 3 7 2 3 162 9720
24 5 3 7 2 3 135 8100
Feb-18
25 6 3 7 2 3 162 9720
26 3 3 7 2 3 81 4860
3.37
4.5. Comparing Available Capacity with Required Capacity
In this section, there will be analysis comparing between available capacity and
required capacity based on period; and each workstation.
4.5.1. Comparing between Available Capacity and Required Capacity based on

Period Week 1 until Week 26
Below are summary of req capacity and available capacity (minutes) from all
workstations from period week 1 until week 26.
Table 4.18. Req Capacity and Available Capacity Week 1 until Week 26
Week Req Capacity Available Capacity Utilization Capacity?
Week 1 94290,77 89880,00 105% Over

Week 2 80718,61 77040,00 105% Over
Week 3 67384,56 64200,00 105% Over
Week 4 80718,61 77040,00 105% Over
Week 5 90719,15 85680,00 106% Over
Week 6 90719,15 85680,00 106% Over
Week 7 90719,15 85680,00 106% Over
Week 8 90719,15 85680,00 106% Over
Week 9 92147,80 88440,00 104% Over
Week 10 92862,12 89280,00 104% Over
Week 11 92862,12 89280,00 104% Over
Week 12 92862,12 89280,00 104% Over
Week 13 76670,78 73980,00 104% Over
Week 14 89290,50 85680,00 104% Over
Week 15 89290,50 85680,00 104% Over
Week 16 89290,50 85680,00 104% Over
Week 17 59527,00 57120,00 104% Over
Week 18 62622,40 59520,00 105% Over
Week 19 93814,55 89280,00 105% Over
Week 20 93814,55 89280,00 105% Over
Week 21 93814,55 89280,00 105% Over
Week 22 102386,44 105120,00 97% Under
Week 23 111196,44 104040,00 107% Over
Week 24 92624,01 86700,00 107% Over
Week 25 111196,44 104040,00 107% Over
Week 26 55479,16 52020,00 107% Over
3.38
Periodic Comparation
120000.00
100000.00
80000.00
60000.00
40000.00
20000.00
0.00
Week 7
Week 16
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
Week 17
Week 18
Week 19
Week 20
Week 21
Week 22
Week 23
Week 24
Week 25
Week 26
Req Capacity Available Capacity
Figure 4.1. Periodic Comparation
From the graph above, it is shown that almost in all weeks, the required capacity is
higher than available capacity. It is mean that the utilization is more than 100%.
The utilization could be calculated by formula as belows.
𝑖
𝑖𝑖 𝑖 = × %
𝑖 𝑖
To solve this problem, there are two ways such as decrease the demand so revise
the MPS; or adding overtime hours in order to increase the available capacity. In
this first method, decreasing the required capacity same as available capacity as
belows. Except in week 22, since the capacity is under capacity, so the available
capacity become same as required capacity.
3.39
Below are the periodic comparasion from week 1 until week 26. After revised, the
utilization become 100%, it is mean that the required capacity same as avaialable
capacity.
Table 4.19. Periodic Comparasion After Revised
Req Available
Week Utilization Capacity?
Capacity Capacity
Week 1 89880,00 89880,00 100% Same
Week 2 77040,00 77040,00 100% Same
Week 3 64200,00 64200,00 100% Same
Week 4 77040,00 77040,00 100% Same
Week 5 85680,00 85680,00 100% Same
Week 6 85680,00 85680,00 100% Same
Week 7 85680,00 85680,00 100% Same
Week 8 85680,00 85680,00 100% Same
Week 9 88440,00 88440,00 100% Same
Week 10 89280,00 89280,00 100% Same
Week 11 89280,00 89280,00 100% Same
Week 12 89280,00 89280,00 100% Same
Week 13 73980,00 73980,00 100% Same
Week 14 85680,00 85680,00 100% Same
Week 15 85680,00 85680,00 100% Same
Week 16 85680,00 85680,00 100% Same
Week 17 57120,00 57120,00 100% Same
Week 18 59520,00 59520,00 100% Same
Week 19 89280,00 89280,00 100% Same
Week 20 89280,00 89280,00 100% Same
Week 21 89280,00 89280,00 100% Same
Week 22 102386,44 102386,44 100% Same
Week 23 104040,00 104040,00 100% Same
Week 24 86700,00 86700,00 100% Same
Week 25 104040,00 104040,00 100% Same
Week 26 52020,00 52020,00 100% Same
3.40
Periodic Comparasion After Revised
120000.00
100000.00
80000.00
60000.00
40000.00
20000.00
0.00
Week 9
Week 20
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
Week 16
Week 17
Week 18
Week 19
Week 21
Week 22
Week 23
Week 24
Week 25
Week 26
Figure 4.2. Periodic Comparasion After Revised
Because the required capacity changes, so the MPS also should be revised. By
trying inputing number of unit produced in order to calculate same as available
capacity in all periods, the MPS Revised has been calculated as belows.
Table 4.20. MPS After Revised
Month WEEK Unit Produced / Week

Sep-17 1 377
2 323
3 270
4 323
Oct-17 5 360
6 360
7 360
8 360
Oct-17 (2) & Nov-17 9 371
(4)
Nov-17 10 375
11 375
12 375
Nov-17 (4) & Dec-17 13 311
(1)
3.41
Table 4.20. MPS After Revised (continued)
Dec-17 14 360
15 360
16 360
17 240
Jan-18 18 250
19 375
20 375
21 375
Jan-18 (3) & Feb-18 (3) 22 430
Feb-18 23 437
24 364
25 437
26 218
4.5.2. Comparing between Available Capacity and Required Capacity based on

each Workstation from Week 1 until Week 26
 Assembly Workstation
In this part, there will be analysis required capacity and available capacity in
assembly workstation from week 1 until week 26. From the graph, it could be seen
that the required capacity is under available capacity.
Assembly
5000.00
4000.00
3000.00
2000.00
1000.00
0.00
Week 1
Week 12
Week 23
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
Week 16
Week 17
Week 18
Week 19
Week 20
Week 21
Week 22
Week 24
Week 25
Week 26
Req. Capacity Available Cap.
Figure 4.3. Assembly
3.42
Table 4.21. Assembly
Week Week Week

Week Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7 Week 8 Week 9
10 11 12
Req. Capacity 475,20 406,80 339,60 406,80 457,20 457,20 457,20 457,20 464,40 468,00 468,00 468,00
Available 4200,0 3600,0 3000,0 3600,0 3600,0 3600,0 3600,0 3600,0 3600,0
3600,00 3600,00 3600,00
Cap. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Utilization 11% 11% 11% 11% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13%
Capacity? Under Under Under Under Under Under Under Under Under Under Under Under
Table 4.21. Assembly (continued)
Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
386,40 450,00 450,00 450,00 300,00 315,60 472,80 472,80 472,80 516,00 560,40 466,80 560,40 279,60
3000,0 3600,0 3600,0 3600,0 2400,0 2400,0 3600,0 3600,0 3600,0 3600,0 3600,0 3000,0 3600,0 1800,0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 14% 16% 16% 16% 16%
Under Under Under Under Under Under Under Under Under Under Under Under Under Under
3.43
Because under capacity, so the available capacity should be reduced by cutting the RT and OT hours. The details of available capacity
as belows. Now, the avaialable capacity remain same as required capacity in assembly workstation.
Table 4.22. Available Capacity After Revised

1 7 1 1,13 0 0 8 475
2 6 1 1,13 0 0 7 407
Sep-17
3 5 1 1,13 0 0 6 339
4 6 1 1,13 0 0 7 407
5 6 1 1,27 0 0 8 457
6 6 1 1,27 0 0 8 457
Oct-17
7 6 1 1,27 0 0 8 457
8 6 1 1,27 0 0 8 457
Oct-17 (2) & Nov-17
9 6 1 1,29 0 0 8 464
(4)
10 6 1 1,3 0 0 8 468
Nov-17 11 6 1 1,3 0 0 8 468
12 6 1 1,3 0 0 8 468
Nov-17 (4) & Dec-17
13 5 1 1,29 0 0 6 387
(1)
14 6 1 1,25 0 0 8 450
15 6 1 1,25 0 0 8 450
Dec-17
16 6 1 1,25 0 0 8 450
17 4 1 1,25 0 0 5 300
3.44
Table 4.22. Available Capacity After Revised (continued)
18 4 1 1,31 0 0 5 314
19 6 1 1,31 0 0 8 472
Jan-18
20 6 1 1,31 0 0 8 472
21 6 1 1,31 0 0 8 472
Jan-18 (3) & Feb-18 (3) 22 6 1 1,43 0 0 9 515
23 6 1 1,55 0 0 9 558
24 5 1 1,55 0 0 8 465
Feb-18
25 6 1 1,56 0 0 9 562
26 3 1 1,55 0 0 5 279
Assembly
600.00
500.00
400.00
300.00
200.00
100.00
0.00
Week 13
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12
Week 14
Week 15
Week 16
Week 17
Week 18
Week 19
Week 20
Week 21
Week 22
Week 23
Week 24
Week 25
Week 26
Figure 4.4. Assembly Revised
3.45
 Inspection Workstation
inpection workstation from week 1 until week 26. From the graph, it could be seen
that the required capacity is under available capacity.
Inspection
4500.00
4000.00
3500.00
3000.00
2500.00
2000.00
1500.00
1000.00
500.00
0.00
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
Week 16
Week 17
Week 18
Week 19
Week 20
Week 21
Week 22
Week 23
Week 24
Week 25
Week 26
Figure 4.5. Inspection
3.46
Table 4.23. Inspection
Week Week Week

10 11 12
Req. Capacity 633,60 542,40 452,80 542,40 609,60 609,60 609,60 609,60 619,20 624,00 624,00 624,00
Available 4200,0 3600,0 3000,0 3600,0 3600,0 3600,0 3600,0 3600,0 3600,0
3600,00 3600,00 3600,00
Cap. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Utilization 15% 15% 15% 15% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17%
Table 4.23. Inspection (continued)
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
515,20 600,00 600,00 600,00 400,00 420,80 630,40 630,40 630,40 688,00 747,20 622,40 747,20 372,80
3000,0 3600,0 3600,0 3600,0 2400,0 2400,0 3600,0 3600,0 3600,0 3600,0 3600,0 3000,0 3600,0 1800,0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 18% 18% 18% 18% 19% 21% 21% 21% 21%
3.47
as belows. Now, the available capacity remain same as required capacity in inspection workstation.

1 7 1 1,51 0 0 11 634
2 6 1 1,51 0 0 9 544
Sep-17
3 5 1 1,51 0 0 8 453
4 6 1 1,51 0 0 9 544
5 6 1 1,69 0 0 10 608
6 6 1 1,69 0 0 10 608
Oct-17
7 6 1 1,69 0 0 10 608
8 6 1 1,69 0 0 10 608
Oct-17 (2) & Nov-17
9 6 1 1,72 0 0 10 619
(4)
10 6 1 1,74 0 0 10 626
Nov-17 11 6 1 1,74 0 0 10 626
12 6 1 1,74 0 0 10 626
Nov-17 (4) & Dec-17
13 5 1 1,72 0 0 9 516
(1)
14 6 1 1,67 0 0 10 601
15 6 1 1,67 0 0 10 601
Dec-17
16 6 1 1,67 0 0 10 601
17 4 1 1,67 0 0 7 401
3.48
18 4 1 1,75 0 0 7 420
19 6 1 1,75 0 0 11 630
Jan-18
20 6 1 1,75 0 0 11 630
21 6 1 1,75 0 0 11 630
Jan-18 (3) & Feb-18
22 6 1 1,91 0 0 11 688
(3)
23 6 1 2,08 0 0 12 749
24 5 1 2,08 0 0 10 624
Feb-18
25 6 1 2,08 0 0 12 749
26 3 1 2,1 0 0 6 378
Inpection Revised
800.00
600.00
400.00
200.00
0.00
Figure 4.6. Inspection Revised
3.49
 Workstation 101
In this part, there will be analysis required capacity and available capacity in 101
workstation from week 1 until week 26. From the graph, it could be seen that overall
the required capacity is over the available capacity.
Workstation 101
12000.00
10000.00
8000.00
6000.00
4000.00
2000.00
0.00
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
Week 16
Week 17
Week 18
Week 19
Week 20
Week 21
Week 22
Week 23
Week 24
Week 25
Week 26
Figure 4.7. Workstation 101
3.50
Table 4.25. Workstation 101
Week Week Week

10 11 12
7709,3 6599,6 5509,4 6599,6 7417,3 7417,3 7417,3 7417,3 7534,1
Req. Capacity 7592,52 7592,52 7592,52
3 5 4 5 1 1 1 1 2
Available 7140,0 6120,0 5100,0 6120,0 6120,0 6120,0 6120,0 6120,0 7200,0
7200,00 7200,00 7200,00
Cap. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Utilization 108% 108% 108% 108% 121% 121% 121% 121% 105% 105% 105% 105%
Capacity? Over Over Over Over Over Over Over Over Over Over Over Over
Table 4.25. Workstation 101 (continued)
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
6268,7 7300,5 7300,5 7300,5 4867,0 5120,0 7670,3 7670,3 7670,3 8371,2 9091,5 7573,0 9091,5 4536,0
0 0 0 0 0 8 9 9 9 4 6 5 6 4
6000,0 6120,0 6120,0 6120,0 4080,0 4800,0 7200,0 7200,0 7200,0 9720,0 8640,0 7200,0 8640,0 4320,0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
104% 119% 119% 119% 119% 107% 107% 107% 107% 86% 105% 105% 105% 105%
Over Over Over Over Over Over Over Over Over Over Over Over Over Over
3.51
Because over capacity, so the available capacity should be increased by increasing OT hours. The details of available capacity as
belows. Now, the available capacity remain same as required capacity in workstation 101.

1 7 2 7 1 4,36 129 7711
2 6 2 7 1 4,32 110 6595
Sep-17
3 5 2 7 1 4,33 92 5499
4 6 2 7 1 4,33 110 6599
5 6 2 7 1 6,60 124 7416
6 6 2 7 1 6,60 124 7416
Oct-17
7 6 2 7 1 6,60 124 7416
8 6 2 7 1 6,60 124 7416
Oct-17 (2) & Nov-17
9 6 2 7 2 3,47 126 7538
(4)
10 6 2 7 2 3,55 127 7596
Nov-17 11 6 2 7 2 3,55 127 7596
12 6 2 7 2 3,55 127 7596
Nov-17 (4) & Dec-17
13 5 2 7 2 3,45 105 6270
(1)
14 6 2 7 1 6,25 122 7290
15 6 2 7 1 6,25 122 7290
Dec-17
16 6 2 7 1 6,25 122 7290
17 4 2 7 1 6,30 81 4872
3.52
18 4 2 7 2 3,70 86 5136
19 6 2 7 2 3,60 127 7632
Jan-18
20 6 2 7 2 3,60 127 7632
21 6 2 7 2 3,60 127 7632
Jan-18 (3) & Feb-18 (3) 22 6 3 7 2 1,10 139 8352
23 6 3 7 1 4,20 151 9072
24 5 3 7 1 4,10 126 7530
Feb-18
25 6 3 7 1 4,00 150 9000
26 3 3 7 1 4,80 77 4644
Workstation 101
10000.00
8000.00
6000.00
4000.00
2000.00
0.00
WeekWeek
2 Week
4 Week
6 Week
8 Week
10 Week
12 Week
14 Week
16 Week
18 Week
20 Week
22 Week
24 26
Figure 4.8. Workstation 101 Revised
3.53
 Workstation 102
Workstation 102
30000.00
25000.00
20000.00
15000.00
10000.00
5000.00
0.00
Week 8
Week 16
Week 25
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
Week 17
Week 18
Week 19
Week 20
Week 21
Week 22
Week 23
Week 24
Week 26
3.54
Week Week Week

10 11 12
Req. 21574,0 18468,7 15417,8 18468,7 20756,8 20756,8 20756,8 20756,8 21083,7 21247,2 21247,2 21247,2
Capacity 8 2 4 2 8 8 8 8 6 0 0 0
Available 17220,0 14760,0 12300,0 14760,0 17280,0 17280,0 17280,0 17280,0 17280,0 17280,0 17280,0 17280,0
Cap. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Utilization 125% 125% 125% 125% 120% 120% 120% 120% 122% 123% 123% 123%
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
17542, 20430, 20430, 20430, 13620, 14328, 21465, 21465, 21465, 23426, 25442, 21192, 25442, 12693,
56 00 00 00 00 24 12 12 12 40 16 72 16 84
14400, 17280, 17280, 17280, 11520, 11520, 17280, 17280, 17280, 20880, 20880, 17400, 20880, 10440,
00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00
122% 118% 118% 118% 118% 124% 124% 124% 124% 112% 122% 122% 122% 122%
3.55
REGULAR TIME OVER TIME

Month WEEK Working Days TOTAL (HOURS) TOTAL (MINUTES)
1 7 5 7 2 8,20 360 21588
2 6 5 7 2 8,20 308 18504
Sep-17
3 5 5 7 2 8,20 257 15420
4 6 5 7 2 8,20 308 18504
5 6 6 7 2 8,10 349 20952
6 6 6 7 2 8,10 349 20952
Oct-17
7 6 6 7 2 8,10 349 20952
8 6 6 7 2 8,10 349 20952
Oct-17 (2) & Nov-17 (4) 9 6 6 7 2 8,30 352 21096
10 6 6 7 2 8,50 354 21240
Nov-17 11 6 6 7 2 8,50 354 21240
12 6 6 7 2 8,50 354 21240
Nov-17 (4) & Dec-17 (1) 13 5 6 7 2 8,27 293 17562
14 6 6 7 2 7,40 341 20448
15 6 6 7 2 7,40 341 20448
Dec-17
16 6 6 7 2 7,40 341 20448
17 4 6 7 2 7,50 228 13680
3.56
18 4 6 7 2 8,80 238 14304

19 6 6 7 2 8,80 358 21456
Jan-18
20 6 6 7 2 8,80 358 21456
21 6 6 7 2 8,80 358 21456
Jan-18 (3) & Feb-18 (3) 22 6 7 7 3 5,40 391 23472
23 6 7 7 3 7,20 424 25416
24 5 7 7 3 7,20 353 21180
Feb-18
25 6 7 7 3 7,20 424 25416
26 3 7 7 3 7,10 211 12654
Workstation 102
30000.00
25000.00
20000.00
15000.00
10000.00
5000.00
0.00
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
Week 16
Week 17
Week 18
Week 19
Week 20
Week 21
Week 22
Week 23
Week 24
Week 25
Week 26
3.57
 Workstation 103
the required capacity is under the available capacity.
Workstation 103
4500.00
4000.00
3500.00
3000.00
2500.00
2000.00
1500.00
1000.00
500.00
0.00
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
Week 16
Week 17
Week 18
Week 19
Week 20
Week 21
Week 22
Week 23
Week 24
Week 25
Week 26
3.58
Week Week Week

10 11 12
2805,0 2401,2 2004,5 2401,2 2698,7 2698,7 2698,7 2698,7 2741,2
Req. Capacity 2762,50 2762,50 2762,50
0 5 8 5 5 5 5 5 5
Available 4200,0 3600,0 3000,0 3600,0 3600,0 3600,0 3600,0 3600,0 3600,0
3600,00 3600,00 3600,00
Cap. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Utilization 67% 67% 67% 67% 75% 75% 75% 75% 76% 77% 77% 77%
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
2280,8 2656,2 2656,2 2656,2 1770,8 1862,9 2790,8 2790,8 2790,8 3045,8 3307,9 2755,4 3307,9 1650,4
3 5 5 5 3 2 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2
3000,0 3600,0 3600,0 3600,0 2400,0 2400,0 3600,0 3600,0 3600,0 3600,0 3600,0 3000,0 3600,0 1800,0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
76% 74% 74% 74% 74% 78% 78% 78% 78% 85% 92% 92% 92% 92%
3.59
as belows. Now, the available capacity remain same as required capacity in workstation 103.
Working TOTAL TOTAL

Month WEEK REGULAR TIME OVER TIME
Days (HOURS) (MINUTES)
Sep-17 1 7 1 6,68 0 0 47 2805
2 6 1 6,67 0 0 40 2401
3 5 1 6,68 0 0 33 2005
4 6 1 6,67 0 0 40 2401
Oct-17 5 6 1 7,50 0 0 45 2699
6 6 1 7,50 0 0 45 2699
7 6 1 7,50 0 0 45 2699
8 6 1 7,50 0 0 45 2699
Oct-17 (2) & Nov-17
9 6 1 7,61 0 0 46 2741
(4)
Nov-17 10 6 1 7,67 0 0 46 2763
11 6 1 7,67 0 0 46 2763
12 6 1 7,67 0 0 46 2763
Nov-17 (4) & Dec-17
13 5 1 7,60 0 0 38 2281
(1)
Dec-17 14 6 1 7,38 0 0 44 2656
15 6 1 7,38 0 0 44 2656
16 6 1 7,38 0 0 44 2656
3.60
17 4 1 7,38 0 0 30 1771
Jan-18 18 4 1 7,76 0 0 31 1863
19 6 1 7,75 0 0 47 2791
20 6 1 7,75 0 0 47 2791
21 6 1 7,75 0 0 47 2791
Jan-18 (3) & Feb-18
22 6 1 8,46 0 0 51 3046
(3)
Feb-18 23 6 1 9,19 0 0 55 3308
24 5 1 9,18 0 0 46 2755
25 6 1 9,19 0 0 55 3308
26 3 1 9,17 0 0 28 1650
Wokstation 103 Revised

3500.00
3000.00
2500.00
2000.00
1500.00
1000.00
500.00
0.00
Week 3
Week 1
Week 2
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
Week 16
Week 17
Week 18
Week 19
Week 20
Week 21
Week 22
Week 23
Week 24
Week 25
Week 26
3.61
 Workstation 104
Workstation 104
30000.00
25000.00
20000.00
15000.00
10000.00
5000.00
0.00
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
Week 16
Week 17
Week 18
Week 19
Week 20
Week 21
Week 22
Week 23
Week 24
Week 25
Week 26
3.62
Week Week Week

10 11 12
Req. 21212,4 18159,1 15159,3 18159,1 20408,9 20408,9 20408,9 20408,9 20730,3 20891,0 20891,0 20891,0
Capacity 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Available 17220,0 14760,0 12300,0 14760,0 17280,0 17280,0 17280,0 17280,0 17280,0 17280,0 17280,0 17280,0
Cap. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Utilization 123% 123% 123% 123% 118% 118% 118% 118% 120% 121% 121% 121%
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
17248, 20087, 20087, 20087, 13391, 14088, 21105, 21105, 21105, 23033, 25015, 20837, 25015, 12481,
47 50 50 50 67 03 27 27 27 67 63 43 63 03
14400, 17280, 17280, 17280, 11520, 11520, 17280, 17280, 17280, 20880, 20880, 17400, 20880, 10440,
00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00
120% 116% 116% 116% 116% 122% 122% 122% 122% 110% 120% 120% 120% 120%
3.63

1 7 5 7 2 7,75 354 21212
2 6 5 7 2 7,72 303 18159
Sep-17
3 5 5 7 2 7,77 253 15159
4 6 5 7 2 7,72 303 18159
5 6 6 7 2 7,35 340 20409
6 6 6 7 2 7,35 340 20409
Oct-17
7 6 6 7 2 7,35 340 20409
8 6 6 7 2 7,35 340 20409
Oct-17 (2) & Nov-17
9 6 6 7 2 7,79 346 20730
(4)
10 6 6 7 2 8,02 348 20891
Nov-17 11 6 6 7 2 8,02 348 20891
12 6 6 7 2 8,02 348 20891
Nov-17 (4) & Dec-17
13 5 6 7 2 7,75 287 17248
(1)
14 6 6 7 2 6,90 335 20088
15 6 6 7 2 6,90 335 20088
Dec-17
16 6 6 7 2 6,90 335 20088
17 4 6 7 2 6,90 223 13392
3.64
18 4 6 7 2 8,35 235 14088

19 6 6 7 2 8,31 352 21105
Jan-18
20 6 6 7 2 8,31 352 21105
21 6 6 7 2 8,31 352 21105
Jan-18 (3) & Feb-18 (3) 22 6 7 7 3 4,99 384 23034
23 6 7 7 3 6,83 417 25016
24 5 7 7 3 6,82 347 20837
Feb-18
25 6 7 7 3 6,83 417 25016
26 3 7 7 3 6,78 208 12481
Workstation 104 Revised

30000.00
25000.00
20000.00
15000.00
10000.00
5000.00
0.00
WeekWeek
2 Week
4 Week
6 Week
8 Week
10 Week
12 Week
14 Week
16 Week
18 Week
20 Week
22 Week
24 26
3.65
 Workstation 105
workstation from week 1 until week 26. From the graph, it could be seen that some
of required capacity is over or under the available capacity.
Workstation 105
4500.00
4000.00
3500.00
3000.00
2500.00
2000.00
1500.00
1000.00
500.00
0.00
Week 10
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 11
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
Week 16
Week 17
Week 18
Week 19
Week 20
Week 21
Week 22
Week 23
Week 24
Week 25
Week 26
3.66
Week Week Week

10 11 12
3564,0 3051,0 2547,0 3051,0 3429,0 3429,0 3429,0 3429,0 3483,0
Req. Capacity 3510,00 3510,00 3510,00
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Available 4200,0 3600,0 3000,0 3600,0 3600,0 3600,0 3600,0 3600,0 3600,0
3600,00 3600,00 3600,00
Cap. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Utilization 85% 85% 85% 85% 95% 95% 95% 95% 97% 98% 98% 98%
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
2898,0 3375,0 3375,0 3375,0 2250,0 2367,0 3546,0 3546,0 3546,0 3870,0 4203,0 3501,0 4203,0 2097,0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3000,0 3600,0 3600,0 3600,0 2400,0 2400,0 3600,0 3600,0 3600,0 3600,0 3600,0 3000,0 3600,0 1800,0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
97% 94% 94% 94% 94% 99% 99% 99% 99% 108% 117% 117% 117% 117%
Under Under Under Under Under Under Under Under Under Over Over Over Over Over
3.67
Because some of periods are over capacity, so the available capacity should be increased by increasing OT hours and some of periods
are under capacity, so the available capacity should be decreased by decreasing RT and OT hours. The details of available capacity as

1 7 1 7 1 1,49 59 3564
2 6 1 7 1 1,48 51 3051
Sep-17
3 5 1 7 1 1,49 42 2547
4 6 1 7 1 1,48 51 3051
5 6 1 7 1 2,53 57 3429
6 6 1 7 1 2,53 57 3429
Oct-17
7 6 1 7 1 2,53 57 3429
8 6 1 7 1 2,53 57 3429
Oct-17 (2) & Nov-17
9 6 1 7 1 2,68 58 3483
(4)
10 6 1 7 1 2,75 59 3510
Nov-17 11 6 1 7 1 2,75 59 3510
12 6 1 7 1 2,75 59 3510
Nov-17 (4) & Dec-17
13 5 1 7 1 2,66 48 2898
(1)
14 6 1 7 1 2,38 56 3375
Dec-17
15 6 1 7 1 2,38 56 3375
3.68
16 6 1 7 1 2,38 56 3375
17 4 1 7 1 2,38 38 2250
18 4 1 7 1 2,86 39 2367
19 6 1 7 1 2,85 59 3546
Jan-18
20 6 1 7 1 2,85 59 3546
21 6 1 7 1 2,85 59 3546
Jan-18 (3) & Feb-18
22 6 1 7 1 3,75 65 3870
(3)
23 6 1 7 1 4,68 70 4203
24 5 1 7 1 4,67 58 3501
Feb-18
25 6 1 7 1 4,68 70 4203
26 3 1 7 1 4,65 35 2097

5000.00
4000.00
3000.00
2000.00
1000.00
0.00
3.69
 Workstation 106
workstation from week 1 until week 26. From the graph, it could be seen that almost
all required capacity is over the available capacity.
Workstation 106
10000.00
9000.00
8000.00
7000.00
6000.00
5000.00
4000.00
3000.00
2000.00
1000.00
0.00
Week 4
Week 13
Week 22
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12
Week 14
Week 15
Week 16
Week 17
Week 18
Week 19
Week 20
Week 21
Week 23
Week 24
Week 25
Week 26
3.70
Week Week Week

10 11 12
7500,2 6420,6 5360,0 6420,6 7216,1 7216,1 7216,1 7216,1 7329,7
Req. Capacity 7386,60 7386,60 7386,60
4 6 2 6 4 4 4 4 8
Available 7140,0 6120,0 5100,0 6120,0 6120,0 6120,0 6120,0 6120,0 6120,0
6120,00 6120,00 6120,00
Cap. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Utilization 105% 105% 105% 105% 118% 118% 118% 118% 120% 121% 121% 121%
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
6098,6 7102,5 7102,5 7102,5 4735,0 4981,2 7462,3 7462,3 7462,3 8144,2 8844,9 7367,6 8844,9 4413,0
8 0 0 0 0 2 6 6 6 0 8 6 8 2
5100,0 6120,0 6120,0 6120,0 4080,0 4080,0 6120,0 6120,0 6120,0 8640,0 8640,0 7200,0 8640,0 4320,0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
120% 116% 116% 116% 116% 122% 122% 122% 122% 94% 102% 102% 102% 102%
Over Over Over Over Over Over Over Over Over Under Over Over Over Over
3.71
Because almost all periods are over capacity, so the available capacity should be increased by increasing OT hours. The details of
available capacity as belows. Now, the available capacity remain same as required capacity in workstation 106.
Working Days REGULAR TIME OVER TIME TOTAL TOTAL

Month WEEK
1 7 2 7 1 3,86 125 7500
2 6 2 7 1 3,84 107 6421
Sep-17
3 5 2 7 1 3,87 89 5360
4 6 2 7 1 3,84 107 6421
5 6 2 7 1 6,04 120 7216
6 6 2 7 1 6,04 120 7216
Oct-17
7 6 2 7 1 6,04 120 7216
8 6 2 7 1 6,04 120 7216
Oct-17 (2) & Nov-17
9 6 2 7 6597 0,00 122 7330
(4)
10 6 2 7 1 6,52 123 7387
Nov-17 11 6 2 7 1 6,52 123 7387
12 6 2 7 1 6,52 123 7387
Nov-17 (4) & Dec-17
13 5 2 7 1 6,33 102 6099
(1)
14 6 2 7 1 5,73 118 7103
15 6 2 7 1 5,73 118 7103
Dec-17
16 6 2 7 1 5,73 118 7103
17 4 2 7 1 5,73 79 4735
3.72
18 4 2 7 1 6,76 83 4981
19 6 2 7 1 6,73 124 7462
Jan-18
20 6 2 7 1 6,73 124 7462
21 6 2 7 1 6,73 124 7462
Jan-18 (3) & Feb-18 (3) 22 6 3 7 1 1,62 136 8144
23 6 3 7 1 3,57 147 8845
24 5 3 7 1 3,56 123 7368
Feb-18
25 6 3 7 1 3,57 147 8845
26 3 3 7 1 3,52 74 4413

10000.00
8000.00
6000.00
4000.00
2000.00
0.00
3.73
 Workstation 107
workstation 107 from week 1 until week 26. From the graph, it could be seen that
almost all required capacity is over the available capacity.
Workstation 107
25000.00
20000.00
15000.00
10000.00
5000.00
0.00
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
Week 16
Week 17
Week 18
Week 19
Week 20
Week 21
Week 22
Week 23
Week 24
Week 25
Week 26
3.74
Week Week Week

10 11 12
Req. 18687,2 15997,4 13354,7 15997,4 17979,3 17979,3 17979,3 17979,3 18262,5 18404,1 18404,1 18404,1
Capacity 4 1 7 1 9 9 9 9 3 0 0 0
Available 17220,0 14760,0 12300,0 14760,0 17280,0 17280,0 17280,0 17280,0 17280,0 17280,0 17280,0 17280,0
Cap. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Utilization 109% 108% 109% 108% 104% 104% 104% 104% 106% 107% 107% 107%
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
15195, 17696, 17696, 17696, 11797, 12410, 18592, 18592, 18592, 20291, 22037, 18356, 22037, 10995,
18 25 25 25 50 97 86 86 86 70 73 91 73 27
14400, 17280, 17280, 17280, 11520, 11520, 17280, 17280, 17280, 20880, 20880, 17400, 20880, 10440,
00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00
106% 102% 102% 102% 102% 108% 108% 108% 108% 97% 106% 105% 106% 105%
Over Over Over Over Over Over Over Over Over Under Over Over Over Over
3.75
Because all periods are over capacity, so the available capacity should be increased by increasing OT hours. The details of available
capacity as belows. Now, the available capacity remain same as required capacity in workstation 107.
REGULAR TIME OVER TIME TOTAL

Month WEEK Working Days TOTAL (HOURS)
WORKERS HOURS WORKERS HOURS (MINUTES)
1 7 5 7 2 4,75 311 18687
2 6 5 7 2 4,72 267 15997
Sep-17
3 5 5 7 2 4,76 223 13355
4 6 5 7 2 4,72 267 15997
5 6 6 7 2 3,97 300 17979
6 6 6 7 2 3,97 300 17979
Oct-17
7 6 6 7 2 3,97 300 17979
8 6 6 7 2 3,97 300 17979
Oct-17 (2) & Nov-17 (4) 9 6 6 7 2 4,36 304 18263
10 6 6 7 2 4,56 307 18404
Nov-17 11 6 6 7 2 4,56 307 18404
12 6 6 7 2 4,56 307 18404
Nov-17 (4) & Dec-17 (1) 13 5 6 7 2 4,33 253 15195
14 6 6 7 2 3,58 295 17696
15 6 6 7 2 3,58 295 17696
Dec-17
16 6 6 7 2 3,58 295 17696
17 4 6 7 2 3,58 197 11798
3.76
18 4 6 7 2 4,86 207 12411

19 6 6 7 2 4,82 310 18593
Jan-18
20 6 6 7 2 4,82 310 18593
21 6 6 7 2 4,82 310 18593
Jan-18 (3) & Feb-18 (3) 22 6 7 7 3 2,46 338 20292
23 6 7 7 3 4,07 367 22038
24 5 7 7 3 4,06 306 18357
Feb-18
25 6 7 7 3 4,07 367 22038
26 3 7 7 3 4,03 183 10995
Workstation 107
25000.00
20000.00
15000.00
10000.00
5000.00
0.00
3.77
 Workstation 108
workstation 108 from week 1 until week 26. From the graph, it could be seen that
all required capacity are over the available capacity.
Workstation 108
14000.00
12000.00
10000.00
8000.00
6000.00
4000.00
2000.00
0.00
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
Week 16
Week 17
Week 18
Week 19
Week 20
Week 21
Week 22
Week 23
Week 24
Week 25
Week 26
3.78
Week Week Week

10 11 12
10129,6 8671,6 7239,1 8671,6 9745,9 9745,9 9745,9 9745,9 9899,4
Req. Capacity 9976,20 9976,20 9976,20
8 2 4 2 8 8 8 8 6
Available
7140 6120 5100 6120 7200 7200 7200 7200 8880 9720 9720 9720
Cap.
Utilization 142% 142% 142% 142% 135% 135% 135% 135% 111% 103% 103% 103%
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
8236,7 9592,5 9592,5 9592,5 6395,0 6727,5 10078,5 10078,5 10078,5 10999,4 11945,8 9950,6 11945,8 5960,1
6 0 0 0 0 4 2 2 2 0 6 2 6 4
7680 7200 7200 7200 4800 6480 9720 9720 9720 9720 9720 8100 9720 4860
107% 133% 133% 133% 133% 104% 104% 104% 104% 113% 123% 123% 123% 123%
3.79
Because all periods are over capacity, so the available capacity should be increased by increasing OT hours. The details of available
capacity as belows. Now, the available capacity remain same as required capacity in workstation 108.

Month WEEK
1 7 2 7 1 10,12 169 10130
2 6 2 7 1 10,09 145 8672
Sep-17
3 5 2 7 1 10,13 121 7239
4 6 2 7 1 10,09 145 8672
5 6 2 7 2 6,54 162 9746
6 6 2 7 2 6,54 162 9746
Oct-17
7 6 2 7 2 6,54 162 9746
8 6 2 7 2 6,54 162 9746
Oct-17 (2) & Nov-17
9 6 3 7 8910 0,00 165 9899
(4)
10 6 3 7 2 3,36 166 9976
Nov-17 11 6 3 7 2 3,36 166 9976
12 6 3 7 2 3,36 166 9976
Nov-17 (4) & Dec-17
13 5 3 7 2 3,93 137 8237
(1)
14 6 2 7 2 6,32 160 9593
15 6 2 7 2 6,32 160 9593
Dec-17
16 6 2 7 2 6,32 160 9593
17 4 2 7 2 6,32 107 6395
3.80
18 4 3 7 2 3,52 112 6728

19 6 3 7 2 3,50 168 10079
Jan-18
20 6 3 7 2 3,50 168 10079
21 6 3 7 2 3,50 168 10079
Jan-18 (3) & Feb-18
22 6 3 7 2 4,78 183 10999
(3)
23 6 3 7 2 6,09 199 11946
24 5 3 7 2 6,08 166 9951
Feb-18
25 6 3 7 2 6,09 199 11946
26 3 3 7 2 6,06 99 5960

15000.00
10000.00
5000.00
0.00
3.81
In this second method, comparing between available capacity and required capacity
based on each workstation from week 1 until week 26. To make balance between
the available and required capacity, it solved by increasing or decreasing the
overtime hours and do not make changes in MPS. The summary result showed as
belows.
Periodic Comparasion
120000.00
100000.00
80000.00
60000.00
40000.00
20000.00
0.00
Week 3
Week 22
Week 1
Week 2
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
Week 16
Week 17
Week 18
Week 19
Week 20
Week 21
Week 23
Week 24
Week 25
Week 26
Figure 4.22. Periodic Comparasion
Below are shown the table of required capacity and available capacity after revised.
Table 4.41. Required Capacity and Available Capacity Revised
Week Req Capacity Available Capacity Utilization Capacity?
Week 1 94290,77 94290,77 100% Same

Week 2 80718,61 80718,61 100% Same
Week 3 67384,56 67384,56 100% Same
Week 4 80718,61 80718,61 100% Same
Week 5 90719,15 90719,15 100% Same
Week 6 90719,15 90719,15 100% Same
Week 7 90719,15 90719,15 100% Same
Week 8 90719,15 90719,15 100% Same
Week 9 92147,80 92147,80 100% Same
Week 10 92862,12 92862,12 100% Same
Week 11 92862,12 92862,12 100% Same
Week 12 92862,12 92862,12 100% Same
3.82
Table 4.41. Required Capacity and Available Capacity Revised (continued)
Week 13 76670,78 76670,78 100% Same
Week 14 89290,50 89290,50 100% Same
Week 15 89290,50 89290,50 100% Same
Week 16 89290,50 89290,50 100% Same
Week 17 59527,00 59527,00 100% Same
Week 18 62622,40 62622,40 100% Same
Week 19 93814,55 93814,55 100% Same
Week 20 93814,55 93814,55 100% Same
Week 21 93814,55 93814,55 100% Same
Week 22 102386,44 102386,44 100% Same
Week 23 111196,44 111196,44 100% Same
Week 24 92624,01 92624,01 100% Same
Week 25 111196,44 111196,44 100% Same
Week 26 55479,16 55479,16 100% Same
From both method, depend to company, would like to maintaining current MPS,
but increasing available capacity; or revise MPS, reducing the required capacity
become same as available capacity.
3.83
CHAPTER V
CONCLUSION
Capacity planning is to determine level of capacity needed to achieve scheduled

production and comparing with the available capacity. The input for capacity
planning are master production schedule (MPS), product structure, and routing data.
First, the routing data for product X should be defined in order to calculate bill of
resources of product X in each workstation, such as assembly, inspection, 101, 102,
103, 104, 105, 106, 107, and 108. After that, the total required capacity is calculated
in each week/workstation. After that, the available capacity in each
week/workstation also should be calculated. If all of these steps done, continue to
comparing the required capacity with available capacity.
There are two ways to comparing the available capacity and required capacity. First
method, by reducing unit produced (change MPS) and make the required capacity
same as available capacity. Result of MPS revised are shown in Chapter 4. Second
method, maintaining the current MPS and adding/reducing the Regular
Time/Overtime Hour in each workstation, in order to increasing/decreasing
available capacity to fulfill the customer demand. Which one is the best, depend on
the company, would like to reducing the demand with same available capacity right
now; or maintaining the current MPS by increasing/reducing the available capacity.
3.84
REFERENCE
Handoko, T. (2010). Manajemen Personalia & Sumber daya Manusia. Yogyakarta:

BPFE.
Heize, J. & Render, B. (2005) Operation Management , 7th edition . Jakarta:

Salemba Empat.
Monks, Joseph G. (1987). Operations Management. Singapore: Mc Graw Hill

Book Company.

3.85
TABLE OF CONTENTS
CHAPTER I ......................................................................................................... 4.3
INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................... 4.3
1.1 Background ........................................................................................... 4.3
1.2 Objectives ................................................................................................... 4.4
1.3 Tools and Equipment(s) ............................................................................. 4.4
1.4 Steps ........................................................................................................... 4.4
CHAPTER II ........................................................................................................ 4.5
2.1 Definition of Material Requirement Planning............................................ 4.5
2.2 Input of MRP ............................................................................................. 4.7
2.2.1. Master Production Schedule (MPS) ....................................................... 4.7
2.2.2 Bill of Material (BOM) ........................................................................... 4.7
2.2.3 Inventory Status Records ........................................................................ 4.8
2.3 Output of MRP ........................................................................................... 4.8
2.3.1 MRP Primary Report\ ............................................................................. 4.9
2.3.2 MRP Action Report ................................................................................ 4.9
2.3.3 MRP Pegging Report .............................................................................. 4.9
2.4 MRP Process and Calculation .................................................................... 4.9
2.5 Lot Sizing Technique ............................................................................... 4.12
2.5.1 Lot for lot (LFL).................................................................................... 4.12
2.5.2 Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) ......................................................... 4.12
2.5.3 Part Period Balancing (PPB) ................................................................. 4.12
2.5.4 Period Order Quantity (POQ) Approach .............................................. 4.13
2.5.5 Silver Meal Approach ........................................................................... 4.13
2.5.6 Least Total Cost (LTC) Approach ........................................................ 4.13
2.5.7 Grofft’s Allgorithm ............................................................................... 4.14
2.5.8 Freeland and Colley (FC) ...................................................................... 4.14
2.5.9 Wagner-Whitin (WW) .......................................................................... 4.14
CHAPTER III .................................................................................................... 4.15
DATA COLLECTION....................................................................................... 4.15
3.1. Master Production Planning .................................................................... 4.15
4.1
3.2. Product Structure..................................................................................... 4.16
3.3. Inventory Status Records ........................................................................ 4.16
CHAPTER IV .................................................................................................... 4.17
DATA ANALYSIS ............................................................................................ 4.17
4.1. Lot-for-Lot (LFL).................................................................................... 4.17
4.2. Period Order Quantity (POQ) ................................................................. 4.24
4.3. Least Unit Cost (LUC) ............................................................................ 4.31
4.4. Least Total Cost (LTC) ........................................................................... 4.64
4.5. Silver Meal .............................................................................................. 4.98
4.6. Wagner-Whithin (WW) ........................................................................ 4.130
4.7. Groff’s Algorithm ................................................................................. 4.166
4.8. Comparation of Lot Size Technique ..................................................... 4.207
CHAPTER V.................................................................................................... 4.211
CONCLUSION ................................................................................................ 4.211
REFERENCE ................................................................................................... 4.212
4.2
CHAPTER I
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background
Materials Requirement Planning (MRP) hardly seems a phrase to create much of a
generate enthusiasm. But in the past few years, some of manufacturing companies
used MRP system for production planning and inventory control on line. However,
manufacturing is only one industry that relies on the appropriate balance between
supply and demand. Whether in a small company or large company, the
implementation of MRP concepts can give the big impact and benefit to the
company. It’s because MRP focuses on two universal concerns of business are
customers and resources. MRP analyzes all company activities in terms of customer
demands and manages all company resources through logic and data processing.
Material Requirement Planning (MRP) is a production planning and inventory

control system that integrates the data from production schedules and the Bill of
Materials (BOM) to calculate purchasing and shipping schedules for the parts. MRP
is based on the fact that the demand of materials, parts, and components depends
on the demand for an end product. The company will forecast the amount and type
of products that will be purchase along with the quantity of materials to produce
then the product will push to the customers. This contrast with a pull system, where
the customer first places on order. The main disadvantage of a push system is its
vulnerability when the sales vary. In this scenario, the forecast become inaccurate
which for manufacturing, cause either a shortage of inventory or an excess of
inventory that requires storage.
In this report, the Material Requirement Planning (MRP) calculation is used based
on lot-sizing technique. The result will be shown, the purchase and production plan.
4.3
1.2 Objectives
 To calculate the net requirements for next six months.

 To calculate lot sizing with lowest cost.
 To calculate the planning of the materials/parts for the next six months.

 Microsoft excel is used for the calculation.

 Papers.
 Laptop.
 Printer.
1.4 Steps
 Calculate net requirements of all items for next six months.

 Conduct the lot sizing technique using LFL, POQ, LUC, LTC, Silver Meal,
Wagner-Whitin, and Groff’s Algorithm.
 Conduct the planning of the materials/parts for next six months.
 Compare the lot sizing techniques.
 Choose the lowest cost between the lot sizing technique.
 Conclude the results.
4.4
CHAPTER II
LITERATURE STUDY
2.1 Definition of Material Requirement Planning

Material Requirement Planning (MRP) is a technique that used for the planning and
control of goods (components) dependent on higher level items. MRP was first
discovered by Joseph Orlicky of J.I Case Company in about 1960.
The MRP method is Computer Oriented Approach which consists of a set of

procedures, decision rules and a set of recording mechanisms designed to describe
the Master Production Schedule (MPS). MRP is always evolving in accordance
with the demands of technological developments and the exposure to corporate
systems. Until now MRP developments occur up to 4 (four) times and not closed
for the future MRP will continue to grow.
The four MRP developments are:
1. Material Requirement Planning (MRP) is a technique or set of systematic

procedures in the determination of quantity and time in the process of
controlling the material against the components of interdependent demand
(Dependent Demand Item).
2. Material Requirement Planning II (MRP II) is an extension of the MRP,
more than just the process of determining material requirements. This
phenomenon spawned a new concept called the Manufacturing Planning of
Resources (MRP II)
3. Material Requirement Planning III (MRP III) is the expansion of MRP in
the accuracy of forecasting, demand, proper usage and demand forecasting
so that it can change Master Production Schedule (MPS).
4. Material Requirement Planning 9000 (MRP 9000) is an extension of MRP
which is a completely complete offer and integrated with manufacturing
management system, including inventory, sales, planning, manufacture and
purchasing using ledger.
4.5
MRP is more than a projected method of necessity for the individual components
of a product. The MRP system has three main functions: inventory level control,
priority component assignment, and capacity requirement at a more detailed level
than the planning process.
There are 3 inputs needed to build the MRP system. The inputs are:
1. Master Production Schedule (MPS)

2. Bill of Material (BOM)
3. Inventory Status Record
These three entries create archives interconnected with the production and
purchasing sections so as to produce up-to-date information on ordering, receiving,
and discharging components from the warehouse.
After the third inputs is available. Then, MRP can perform MRP calculation process
according to production requirement. The output of the MRP calculation is the
determination of the number of each required item along with the date of need. This
information is used to plan for the release of orders (disposal of orders) for the
purchase and manufacture of its own components as necessary.
Basically the MRP system produces 3 (three) types of reports, namely:
1. MRP Primary (Orders) Report

2. MRP Action Report
3. MRP Pegging Report
The output produced by the MRP system provides useful and timely information
for production and stock managers. The three most important things in using MRP
that can be summarized from the capabilities and outputs are inventory planning
and control, 8 detailed capacities planning, and priority planning on the workshop.
Thus, the MRP assists operations managers in making decisions regarding the
rescheduling of orders and the postponement or scoring of orders on MPS if
priorities change.
4.6
2.2 Input of MRP
There are 3 inputs needed to build the MRP system. The inputs are:
2.2.1. Master Production Schedule (MPS)

Master Production Schedule or commonly also called Master Production Schedule
is one of the management functions. In MPS can be determined steps that need to
be taken by the leadership to achieve corporate goals by considering the problems
that may arise in the future. The result of MPS is a work plan which is a good
alternative to achieve the stated objectives. MPS is the final statement on "how
many" items of final items to be produced and "when" to be produced. Usually MPS
is developed for a period of time weekly for 6 (six) to 12 (twelve) in the future. In
determining a good Master Production Schedule it is necessary a good forecast
results so that can be obtained a production plan in accordance with market needs.
To help the forecasting process then emerged several theories / methods about
forecasting.
2.2.2 Bill of Material (BOM)

Another input in creating MRP is Bill of Material (BOM) for each product. BOM
is a series of structures all the components used to form a finished product.
Specifically the Bill of Material structure contains not only the composition of the
component but also the completion step of the finished product.
Bill of Material will completely break down the products in various subassembly,
components and product raw materials. These solutions are also shown in the
product structure. The production structure contains information about the
relationship between the components in an assembly. This information is very
important in determining the gross and net requirements, furthermore the
production structure contains information about all items such as item number,
amount required at each assembly stage.
4.7
Figure 2.1 Structure Product P
2.2.3 Inventory Status Records

Inventory Status Record is a record that contains the number of inventory items of
finished product, component or other sub component. Each inventory item must be
clearly identified in number because of transactions that occur, such as receipts,
expenses, defective products, and data on lead time. This is done to avoid mistakes
in planning.
 Available inventory (inventory on hand) = subassemblies, components, or

raw materials inventory that available to used.
 Scheduled receipts (inventory on order) = the total of all expected receipts for
which purchase or production order exist.
 Safety stock = a quantity of stock planned to be in inventory to protect agains
fluctuations in demand and/or supply.
 Lead time = a span of time required between order for purchase or production
and receipt of goods.
 Safety lead time = a span of time required to protect against fluctuations of
production or purchasing lead time.
 Lot sizing = the technique to determine the amount time of time that is ordered
from the plant of vector.
2.3 Output of MRP

Basically the MRP system produces 3 (three) types of reports, namely:
4.8
2.3.1 MRP Primary Report\
MRP's main reports are often referred to briefly as MRP reports, typically using
either a horizontal format with time in buckets (usually in weekly periods), or
buckles format vertical format. Each form of this report has advantages and
disadvantages.
2.3.2 MRP Action Report

MRP action Reports that are often called MRP Exception Reports provide
information to management (planner) about items that need immediate attention
and recommend actions that need to be taken. The MRP system can automatically
reschedule or resume Planned Orders.
However, MRP cannot change the quantity of planned orders and schedule firm
receipts, but MRP can only suggest those changes. An item that does not require
attention will not be displayed in the MRP Action Report. But before taking an
action the planner should review the other MRP reports, the Primary Pegging
Report.
2.3.3 MRP Pegging Report

The MRP system can also create a Pegging Report to make it easier to trace the
source of the gross needs for an item. By using pegging report the management
(planner) can determine the needs caused by the order. Based on this information,
planners can investigate alternatives at this level and at higher levels in BOM (Bill
of Material).
2.4 MRP Process and Calculation

Before explaining the basic mechanism of the MRP calculation process, the figure
above shows the layout of the MRP.
4.9
Figure 2.2 Layout of MRP Table
 Lead Time
Lead time is the time required since the MRP suggests an order until the item
is ready for use.
 On Hand
On hand is an initial inventory that shows the quantity of items physically
present in the warehouse.
 Gross Requirement
Gross requirement is the gross demand of an item derived from production
planning.
 Schedule Receipts
Schedule Receipt is the Schedule of arrival of goods ordered in period t
 Projected On Hand
Project on hand is a record of the amount of goods available in the initial period
obtained from inventory records.
 Net Requirement
Net requirement is the required net requirement in period t.
Net requirement = max {0; Dt-It-Qt} (2-1)
If the item has a safety stock, the calculation of the net requirement is as
follows:
Net requirement = max {0; Dt+SS-It-Qt} (2-2)
Dt = Gross Requirement at period t
4.10
It = Available Inventory (inventory on hand) at the beginning of period t or
available inventory at the end period t-1
Qt = Schedule Receipt at period t
 Lot Size
Lot size is the order quantity of the item. There are many techniques that can
be used to determine the size of Lot that can be used, such as EOQ techniques.
Lot sizing is to ensure that all requirements will be satisfied, an order will be
scheduled for completion at the beginning of the first period in which there is
a positive net requirement. The size of the order may be just equal to the net
requirement in the period in which it is due, or it may be larger to take
advantage of economies of scale also covering net requirements in some
subsequent periods.
Lot sizing techniques:
- Lot-for-lot (LFL) Technique,
- Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) Approach,
- Period Order Quantity (POQ) Approach,
- Least Unit Cost (LUC) Approach,
- Least Total Cost (LTC) Approach,
- Silver Meal Approach,
- Part Period Balancing (PPB)
- Mc Laren’s Order Moment (MOM)
- Groff’s Algorithm
- Freeland and Colley (FC)
- Wagner-Whitin (WW)
 Planned Order Receipts
A planned order receipt is the quantity of orders planned for the period.
 Planned Order Release
Planned order release is the quantity of an order plan placed or issued within a
certain period for which the ordered item will be available when needed.
4.11
2.5 Lot Sizing Technique
Heizer and Render (2005), state that the MRP system is an excellent way to
determine production schedules and clean needs.
However, when there is a net need, then the decision of how much to order should
be made. This decision is called a lot-sizing decision. Some of the techniques that
can be used are as follows:
2.5.1 Lot for lot (LFL)

Lot for lot is a lot size determination technique that produces what is needed to
fulfill the plan appropriately. According to Purwanti (2010), the Lot for Lot (LFL)
method, also known as the minimal inventory method, is based on the idea of
providing inventory (or produce) as required, the amount of inventory is kept to a
minimum. The number of orders in accordance with the actual amount required
(lot-for-lot) this results in the absence of stored inventory. Thus, the costs incurred
are only a booking fee only. The assumption behind this method is that the supplier
(from outside or from the factory floor) does not require a certain lot size, meaning
whatever size the selected lot will be able to meet.
2.5.2 Economic Order Quantity (EOQ)

According to Heizer and Render (2005), EOQ is a statistical technique that uses
averages (such as a one-year flat demand), while the MRP procedure assumes the
(bonded) demand is known to be described in a master production schedule. The
lot size is based on setup cost or ordering cost per order, with the following formula
Heizer and Render (2005) in the following:
.𝑂.
EOQ = √ (2-3)
ℎ
D is demand or annual demand. Meanwhile, O is ordering cost and h is annual

hiding cost.
2.5.3 Part Period Balancing (PPB)

Heizer and Render (2005) state that Part Period Balancing or partial balancing is a
supply ordering technique that balances setup and storage costs by changing the lot
4.12
size to describe future lot size requirements. The partial balance of periods makes
up a part of the economic period (EPP), which is the cost of setup with the cost of
storage. EPP can be calculated by the following formula:
𝑆 𝑈 𝑂
EPP = (2-4)
𝐻
2.5.4 Period Order Quantity (POQ) Approach

The POQ Approach uses the concept of Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) that can
be used on periods which have discrete demands. By taking the basic calculations
on economic order method will be obtained the large number of orders that have to
be carried out and the interval ordering period is one year. The numbers of periods
that have to be method needs of its components are obtained by calculate the EOQ
divided by demand on average per period.
𝑂𝑄
P∗= (2-5)
POQ equals the quantity to cover P* period of net requirements. N is number of

periods in year and D is annual requirements.
2.5.5 Silver Meal Approach

Silver meal approach focuses on lot size that should be able to minimize the total
cost (holding and ordering cost) per period. The lot size is obtained by cumulating
the demand for several periods in a row as the tentative lot size, carried on until the
cumulating of total costs divided by the number of periods that the demands are
included in the lit size increases.
Cost per period = (2-6)
2.5.6 Least Total Cost (LTC) Approach

LTC approach tries to balance the holding and set up (ordering) cost. A lot size is
started in the first period. Starting with the next period, add the demand for that
period to the lot if the cumulative holding (carrying) costs are less than or close to
the set up cost. LTC Approach can be achieved by ordering lot size that has holding
cost per unit almost equal to the cost of setup per unit. Continue adding the future
4.13
periods’ demand until the total cumulative holding cost exceeds the setup cost (but
not including).
Holding cost for period t = Dt. Periods carried. Holding cost (2-7)
2.5.7 Grofft’s Allgorithm

Groff proposed a method that is similar to Mc Laren’s order moment method in that
it considers the addition of a future demand in a lot. A future demand is included if
the following is satisfied the formula 2.8.
n n− Dn < O or S /h (2-8)
2.5.8 Freeland and Colley (FC)

The Freeland and Coley method also continues to add demand into a lot until
satisfied the formula 2.9, where t is the number of periods that the inventory is
carried. This rule is the same as the rule in the Mc Laren’s order moment method.
Holding cost t Dt > Setup Cost (2-9)
2.5.9 Wagner-Whitin (WW)

Wagner-Within method is part of dynamic lot sizing models (DLS). Wagner-
Within has the same objective as some of the heuristic approach which is
minimizing the variable inventory cost, ordering cost (setup cost) and holding cost
over the planning horizon. That means Wagner-Within use for optimization
approach to lumpy demand. To get the result for Wagner-Within method, it should
be calculating using formula 2.10 and formula 2.11.
Kt, l = Setup Cost + Holding Cost ∑ = + − (2-10)
From formula 2.8 let Kt,l be the cost to place an order to cover demand in period
t,t+1,t+2,…..l assuming zero inventory at the beginning of period t and zero
inventory at the end of period. Now determine the minimum cost from the first
period to period l assuming there is to be no inventory remaining at the end of period
l. Let K t* denote this minimum.
4.14
CHAPTER III
DATA COLLECTION
After analyze the capacity planning, next step for production planning is Material
Requirements Planning (MRP). It is a technique used to plan production of
subassemblies, components, and raw materials to support MPS. The output of this
MRP is purchase and production plan. There are several inputs for MRP, such as
belows.
3.1. Master Production Planning

Through Capacity Planning, there are comparation between required capacity
planning and available capacity. After revise the MPS, the result are shown as
belows.
Table 3.1. Revised MPS
Oct-17
(2) &
Month Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17
Nov-
17 (4)
WEEK 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Unit
Produced / 377 323 270 323 360 360 360 360 371 375 375 375
Week
Table 3.1. Revised MPS (continued)
Nov- Jan-
17 18
(4) (3)
& Dec-17 Jan-18 & Feb-18
Dec- Feb-
17 18
(1) (3)
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
311 360 360 360 240 250 375 375 375 430 437 364 437 218
4.15
3.2. Product Structure
Below are shown the product structure of product X. It will be used for calculating
the MRP.
Figure 3.1. Product Structure
Table 3.2. Bill of Materials (BOM)
Part/Item Quantity
X 1
B 2
C 1
D 6
E 28
F 2
From the product structure and BOM, it is showed that in producing one product X,
it need 2 items B, 1 item C, 6 items D, 28 items E, and 2 items F.
3.3. Inventory Status Records

In this analyze, assumed that all items have same, the inventory status records are
showed as belows. The beginning inventory of product X known is 70 units and
and ending inventory of product X known is 100 units.
Table 3.3. Inventory Status Records
Inventory Information Amount

Lead Time 1 week
Safety Stock 0
Ordering Cost Rp 3.000.000/week
Holding Cost Rp 18.000/unit in a week
4.16
CHAPTER IV
DATA ANALYSIS
In this analysis, there are several calculations of lot sizing technique and the total
cost will be calculated. A lot sizing technique with lowest cost will be choosen and
make planning of the materials/parts for next six months.
4.1. Lot-for-Lot (LFL)

Lot for lot is a lot size determination technique that produces what is needed to
fulfill the plan appropriately. The lot-for-lot conducted in each items. All of items
are assumed, has same lead time equal with 1 week, no safety stock, ordering cost
per week is Rp 3.000.000 and holding cost is Rp 18.000/unit/week.
To calculate the total cost for producing product X by using this lot size technique,
so calculate the total holding and ordering cost in each items, such as product X,
item B, C, D, E, and F. The summary of calculations are shown as belows. The total
cost by using Lot-for-Lot is Rp 472.800.000.
Table 4.1. Total Cost of LFL Method
PART COST
X Rp 79.800.000
B Rp 78.000.000
C Rp 78.000.000
D Rp 78.000.000
E Rp 81.000.000
F Rp 78.000.000
TOTAL COST ALL PART Rp 472.800.000
For detail calculation of each part and POR, are showed on the next page.
4.17
 Product X
Table 4.2. LFL Product X
Period (Week) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Gross Requirements 377 323 270 323 360 360 360 360 371 375
Schedule Receipt
Beginning Inventory 70 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net Requirements 307 323 270 323 360 360 360 360 371 375
Lot Sizing 307 323 270 323 360 360 360 360 371 375
Ending Inventory 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Planned Order Release 307 323 270 323 360 360 360 360 371 375 375
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
375 375 311 360 360 360 240 250 375 375 375 430 437 364 437 218
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
375 375 311 360 360 360 240 250 375 375 375 430 437 364 437 218
375 375 311 360 360 360 240 250 375 375 375 430 437 364 437 218
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100
375 311 360 360 360 240 250 375 375 375 430 437 364 437 218 0
Table 4.3. Total Cost
Ordering Cost 26 Rp 78.000.000
Holding Cost 100 Rp 1.800.000
Total Cost Rp 79.800.000
4.18
 Item B
Table 4.4. LFL Product B
Period (Week) -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Gross Requirements 614 646 540 646 720 720 720 720 742 750 750
Schedule Receipt 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Beginning Inventory 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net Requirements 614 646 540 646 720 720 720 720 742 750 750
Lot Sizing 614 646 540 646 720 720 720 720 742 750 750
Ending Inventory 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Planned Order Release 614 646 540 646 720 720 720 720 742 750 750 750
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
750 622 720 720 720 480 500 750 750 750 860 874 728 874 436 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
750 622 720 720 720 480 500 750 750 750 860 874 728 874 436 0
750 622 720 720 720 480 500 750 750 750 860 874 728 874 436 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
622 720 720 720 480 500 750 750 750 860 874 728 874 436 0 0

Holding Cost 0 Rp -
4.19
 Item C
Table 4.6. LFL Product C
Period (Week) -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Lot Sizing 307 323 270 323 360 360 360 360 371 375 375
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
375 311 360 360 360 240 250 375 375 375 430 437 364 437 218 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
375 311 360 360 360 240 250 375 375 375 430 437 364 437 218 0
375 311 360 360 360 240 250 375 375 375 430 437 364 437 218 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
311 360 360 360 240 250 375 375 375 430 437 364 437 218 0 0
Holding Cost 0 Rp -
4.20
 Item D
Table 4.8. LFL Product D
Period (Week) -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Gross Requirements 1842 1938 1620 1938 2160 2160 2160 2160 2226 2250 2250 2250
Schedule Receipt 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Beginning Inventory 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net Requirements 1842 1938 1620 1938 2160 2160 2160 2160 2226 2250 2250 2250
Lot Sizing 1842 1938 1620 1938 2160 2160 2160 2160 2226 2250 2250 2250
Ending Inventory 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Planned Order Release 1842 1938 1620 1938 2160 2160 2160 2160 2226 2250 2250 2250 1866
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
1866 2160 2160 2160 1440 1500 2250 2250 2250 2580 2622 2184 2622 1308 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1866 2160 2160 2160 1440 1500 2250 2250 2250 2580 2622 2184 2622 1308 0 0
1866 2160 2160 2160 1440 1500 2250 2250 2250 2580 2622 2184 2622 1308 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2160 2160 2160 1440 1500 2250 2250 2250 2580 2622 2184 2622 1308 0 0 0
Holding Cost 0 Rp -
4.21
 Item E
Table 4.10. LFL Product E
Period (Week) -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Gross Requirements 7368 8980 7772 8832 9932 10080 10080 10080 10344 10484 10500 10500 8964
Net Requirements 7368 8980 7772 8832 9932 10080 10080 10080 10344 10484 10500 10500 8964
Lot Sizing 7368 8980 7772 8832 9932 10080 10080 10080 10344 10484 10500 10500 8964
Planned Order Release 7368 8980 7772 8832 9932 10080 10080 10080 10344 10484 10500 10500 8964 9884
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
9884 10080 10080 7200 6960 10000 10500 10500 11820 12208 10484 11944 6980 872 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
9884 10080 10080 7200 6960 10000 10500 10500 11820 12208 10484 11944 6980 872 0 0
9884 10080 10080 7200 6960 10000 10500 10500 11820 12208 10484 11944 6980 872 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
10080 10080 7200 6960 10000 10500 10500 11820 12208 10484 11944 6980 872 0 0 0
Holding Cost 0 Rp -
4.22
 Item F
Table 4.12. LFL Product F
Period (Week) -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Lot Sizing 614 646 540 646 720 720 720 720 742 750 750 750
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
622 720 720 720 480 500 750 750 750 860 874 728 874 436 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
622 720 720 720 480 500 750 750 750 860 874 728 874 436 0 0
622 720 720 720 480 500 750 750 750 860 874 728 874 436 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
720 720 720 480 500 750 750 750 860 874 728 874 436 0 0 0
Holding Cost 0 Rp -
4.23
4.2. Period Order Quantity (POQ)
The POQ conducted in each items. All of items are assumed, has same lead time
equal with 1 week, no safety stock, ordering cost per week is Rp 3.000.000 and
holding cost is Rp 18.000/unit/week.
cost by using POQ is Rp 472.800.000.
Table 4.14. Total Cost of POQ Method
PART COST
X Rp 79.800.000
B Rp 78.000.000
C Rp 78.000.000
D Rp 78.000.000
E Rp 81.000.000
F Rp 78.000.000
To calculate lot size by using POQ method, the value od POQ should be calculated.
First, the value of EOQ and Annual Req should be calculated as belows.
. .∑ . .
=√ =√ = .
# .𝐻 .
∑
= × # 𝑌 = × =
And then, the value of POQ are calculated by using formula as belows.
.
= 𝑌 = × = . ~
From result of POQ, it is mean that the lot size cover one period in each period. For
detail calculation of each part and POR, are showed on the next page.
4.24
 Product X
Table 4.15. POQ Product X
Period (Week) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Schedule Receipt
Lot Sizing 307 323 270 323 360 360 360 360 371 375
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
375 375 311 360 360 360 240 250 375 375 375 430 437 364 437 218
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
375 375 311 360 360 360 240 250 375 375 375 430 437 364 437 218
375 375 311 360 360 360 240 250 375 375 375 430 437 364 437 218
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100
375 311 360 360 360 240 250 375 375 375 430 437 364 437 218 0
4.25
 Item B
Table 4.17. POQ Product B
Period (Week) -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Lot Sizing 614 646 540 646 720 720 720 720 742 750 750
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
750 622 720 720 720 480 500 750 750 750 860 874 728 874 436 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
750 622 720 720 720 480 500 750 750 750 860 874 728 874 436 0
750 622 720 720 720 480 500 750 750 750 860 874 728 874 436 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
622 720 720 720 480 500 750 750 750 860 874 728 874 436 0 0

Holding Cost 0 Rp -
4.26
 Item C
Table 4.19. POQ Product C
Period (Week) -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Lot Sizing 307 323 270 323 360 360 360 360 371 375 375
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
375 311 360 360 360 240 250 375 375 375 430 437 364 437 218 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
375 311 360 360 360 240 250 375 375 375 430 437 364 437 218 0
375 311 360 360 360 240 250 375 375 375 430 437 364 437 218 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
311 360 360 360 240 250 375 375 375 430 437 364 437 218 0 0
Holding Cost 0 Rp -
4.27
 Item D
Table 4.21. POQ Product D
Period (Week) -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Lot Sizing 1842 1938 1620 1938 2160 2160 2160 2160 2226 2250 2250 2250
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
1866 2160 2160 2160 1440 1500 2250 2250 2250 2580 2622 2184 2622 1308 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1866 2160 2160 2160 1440 1500 2250 2250 2250 2580 2622 2184 2622 1308 0 0
1866 2160 2160 2160 1440 1500 2250 2250 2250 2580 2622 2184 2622 1308 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2160 2160 2160 1440 1500 2250 2250 2250 2580 2622 2184 2622 1308 0 0 0
Holding Cost 0 Rp -
4.28
 Item E
Table 4.23. POQ Product E
Period (Week) -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Lot Sizing 7368 8980 7772 8832 9932 10080 10080 10080 10344 10484 10500 10500 8964
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
9884 10080 10080 7200 6960 10000 10500 10500 11820 12208 10484 11944 6980 872 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
9884 10080 10080 7200 6960 10000 10500 10500 11820 12208 10484 11944 6980 872 0 0
9884 10080 10080 7200 6960 10000 10500 10500 11820 12208 10484 11944 6980 872 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
10080 10080 7200 6960 10000 10500 10500 11820 12208 10484 11944 6980 872 0 0 0
Holding Cost 0 Rp -
4.29
 Item F
Table 4.25. POQ Product F
Period (Week) -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Lot Sizing 614 646 540 646 720 720 720 720 742 750 750 750
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
622 720 720 720 480 500 750 750 750 860 874 728 874 436 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
622 720 720 720 480 500 750 750 750 860 874 728 874 436 0 0
622 720 720 720 480 500 750 750 750 860 874 728 874 436 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
720 720 720 480 500 750 750 750 860 874 728 874 436 0 0 0
Holding Cost 0 Rp -
4.30
4.3. Least Unit Cost (LUC)
LUC is a dynamic lot sizing technique that includes ordering cost and inventory
carrying cost for each trial lot size divides by the number of units in lot size, then
picking the lot size with lowest unit cost. The LUC lot sizing was conducted in each
items. All of items are assumed, has same lead time equal with 1 week, no safety
stock, ordering cost per week is Rp 3.000.000 and holding cost is Rp
18.000/unit/week.
cost by using LUC is Rp 472.800.000.
Table 4.27. Total Cost of LUC Method
PART COST
X Rp 79.800.000
B Rp 78.000.000
C Rp 78.000.000
D Rp 78.000.000
E Rp 81.000.000
F Rp 78.000.000
 Product X
To know how many period covered by each lot, so calculation in table belows are
conducted. The value of cummulative cost is calculated by formula as belows.
= + ×𝐻 ×𝐻
4.31
For example, 1st period, so the calculation of cummulative cost and cost per unit as
belows.
= + × × =
= =
If the value of cost/unit increased, so cut the period and starting new calculation
from that period to next period.
Table 4.28. LUC Method
Perio Net Trial Trial Lot Size Cummulative Cost per unit
d Requiremen periods Cost
ts Combined (Cum. Net (IDR) (IDR)
Req)
1 307 1 307 Rp Rp
3.000.000 9.772
2 323 1,2 630 Rp Rp
8.814.000 13.990
3 270 1,2,3 900 Rp Rp
18.534.000 20.593
Combine only
period 1
2 323 2 323 Rp Rp
3.000.000 9.288
3 270 2,3 593 Rp Rp
7.860.000 13.255
4 323 2,3,4 916 Rp Rp
19.488.000 21.275
Only period 2
3 270 3 270 Rp Rp
3.000.000 11.111
4 323 3,4 593 Rp Rp
8.814.000 14.863
5 360 3,4,5 953 Rp Rp
21.774.000 22.848
Only period 3
4 323 4 323Rp Rp
3.000.000 9.288
5 360 4,5 683 Rp Rp
9.480.000 13.880
6 360 4,5,6 1043 Rp Rp
22.440.000 21.515
4.32
Table 4.28. LUC Method (continued)
5 360 5 360 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 8.333

6 360 5,6 720 Rp 9.480.000 Rp 13.167
7 360 5,6,7 1080 Rp 22.440.000 Rp 20.778
Only Period 5
6 360 6 360 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 8.333
7 360 6,7 720 Rp 9.480.000 Rp 13.167
8 360 6,7,8 1080 Rp 22.440.000 Rp 20.778
Only Period 6
7 360 7 360 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 8.333
8 360 7,8 720 Rp 9.480.000 Rp 13.167
9 371 7,8,9 1091 Rp 22.836.000 Rp 20.931
Only Period 7
8 360 8 360 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 8.333
9 371 8,9 731 Rp 9.678.000 Rp 13.239
10 375 8,9,10 1106 Rp 23.178.000 Rp 20.957
Only Period 8
9 371 9 371 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 8.086
10 375 9,1 746 Rp 9.750.000 Rp 13.070
11 375 9,10,11 1121 Rp 23.250.000 Rp 20.740
Only Period 9
10 375 10 375 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 8.000
11 375 10,11 750 Rp 9.750.000 Rp 13.000
12 375 10,11,12 1125 Rp 23.250.000 Rp 20.667
Only Period 10
11 375 11 375 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 8.000
12 375 11,12 750 Rp 9.750.000 Rp 13.000
13 311 11,12,13 1061 Rp 20.946.000 Rp 19.742
Only Period 11
12 375 12 375 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 8.000
13 311 12,13 686 Rp 8.598.000 Rp 12.534
14 360 12,13,14 1046 Rp 21.558.000 Rp 20.610
Only Period 12
13 311 13 311 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 9.646
14 360 13,14 671 Rp 9.480.000 Rp 14.128
15 360 13,14,15 1031 Rp 22.440.000 Rp 21.765
Only Period 13
4.33
14 360 14 360 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 8.333

15 360 14,15 720 Rp 9.480.000 Rp 13.167
16 360 14,15,16 1080 Rp 22.440.000 Rp 20.778
15 360 15 360 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 8.333

16 360 15,16 720 Rp 9.480.000 Rp 13.167
17 240 15,16,17 960 Rp 18.120.000 Rp 18.875
16 360 16 360 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 8.333

17 240 16,17 600 Rp 7.320.000 Rp 12.200
18 250 16,17,18 850 Rp 16.320.000 Rp 19.200
17 240 17 240 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 12.500

18 250 17,18 490 Rp 7.500.000 Rp 15.306
19 375 17,18,19 865 Rp 21.000.000 Rp 24.277
18 250 18 250 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 12.000

19 375 18,19 625 Rp 9.750.000 Rp 15.600
20 375 18,19,20 1000 Rp 23.250.000 Rp 23.250
19 375 19 375 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 8.000

20 375 19,20 750 Rp 9.750.000 Rp 13.000
21 375 19,20,21 1125 Rp 23.250.000 Rp 20.667
20 375 20 375 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 8.000

21 375 20,21 750 Rp 9.750.000 Rp 13.000
22 430 20,21,22 1180 Rp 25.230.000 Rp 21.381
21 375 21 375 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 8.000

22 430 21,22 805 Rp 10.740.000 Rp 13.342
23 437 21,22,23 1242 Rp 26.472.000 Rp 21.314
22 430 22 430 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 6.977

23 437 22,23 867 Rp 10.866.000 Rp 12.533
24 364 22,23,24 1231 Rp 23.970.000 Rp 19.472
4.34
23 437 23 437 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 6.865

24 364 23,24 801 Rp 9.552.000 Rp 11.925
25 437 23,24,25 1238 Rp 25.284.000 Rp 20.423
24 364 24 364 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 8.242

25 437 24,25 801 Rp 10.866.000 Rp 13.566
26 218 24,25,26 1019 Rp 18.714.000 Rp 18.365
25 437 25 437 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 6.865

26 218 25,26 655 Rp 6.924.000 Rp 10.571
From the calculation above, it showed that each lot cover one period only, because
after first period, the unit/cost get increased, so cutting the period. The data of each
lot in period, will be used for making the POR on the next page.
4.35
Table 4.29. LUC Product X
Period (Week) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Schedule Receipt
Lot Sizing 307 323 270 323 360 360 360 360 371 375
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
375 375 311 360 360 360 240 250 375 375 375 430 437 364 437 218
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
375 375 311 360 360 360 240 250 375 375 375 430 437 364 437 218
375 375 311 360 360 360 240 250 375 375 375 430 437 364 437 218
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100
375 311 360 360 360 240 250 375 375 375 430 437 364 437 218 0

4.36
 Item B
= + ×𝐻
×𝐻
belows.
= + × × =
= =
Period Net Trial Trial Lot Cummulative Cost per

Requirem periods Size Cost unit
ents Combine (Cum. Net (IDR) (IDR)
d Req)
0 614 0 614Rp Rp
3.000.000 4.886
1 646 0,1 1260 Rp Rp
14.628.000 11.610
2 540 0,1,2 1800 Rp Rp
34.068.000 18.927
Combine only
period 0
1 646 1 646 Rp Rp
3.000.000 4.644
2 540 1,2 1186 Rp Rp
12.720.000 10.725
3 646 1,2,3 1832 Rp Rp
35.976.000 19.638
4.37
3 646 3 646 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 4.644

4 720 3,4 1366 Rp 15.960.000 Rp 11.684
5 720 3,4,5 2086 Rp 41.880.000 Rp 20.077
Only period 3
4 720 4 720 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 4.167
5 720 4,5 1440 Rp 15.960.000 Rp 11.083
6 720 4,5,6 2160 Rp 41.880.000 Rp 19.389
Only period 4
5 720 5 720 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 4.167
6 720 5,6 1440 Rp 15.960.000 Rp 11.083
7 720 5,6,7 2160 Rp 41.880.000 Rp 19.389
Only Period 5
6 720 6 720 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 4.167
7 720 6,7 1440 Rp 15.960.000 Rp 11.083
8 742 6,7,8 2182 Rp 42.672.000 Rp 19.556
Only Period 6
7 720 7 720 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 4.167
8 742 7,8 1462 Rp 16.356.000 Rp 11.187
9 750 7,8,9 2212 Rp 43.356.000 Rp 19.600
Only Period 7
8 742 8 742 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 4.043
9 750 8,9 1492 Rp 16.500.000 Rp 11.059
10 750 8,9,10 2242 Rp 43.500.000 Rp 19.402
Only Period 8
9 750 9 750 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 4.000
10 750 9,1 1500 Rp 16.500.000 Rp 11.000
11 750 9,10,11 2250 Rp 43.500.000 Rp 19.333
Only Period 9
10 750 10 750 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 4.000
11 750 10,11 1500 Rp 16.500.000 Rp 11.000
12 622 10,11,12 2122 Rp 38.892.000 Rp 18.328
Only Period 10
11 750 11 750 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 4.000
12 622 11,12 1372 Rp 14.196.000 Rp 10.347
13 720 11,12,13 2092 Rp 40.116.000 Rp 19.176
Only Period 11
12 622 12 622 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 4.823
13 720 12,13 1342 Rp 15.960.000 Rp 11.893
14 720 12,13,14 2062 Rp 41.880.000 Rp 20.310
4.38
13 720 13 720 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 4.167

14 720 13,14 1440 Rp 15.960.000 Rp 11.083
15 720 13,14,15 2160 Rp 41.880.000 Rp 19.389
14 720 14 720 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 4.167

15 720 14,15 1440 Rp 15.960.000 Rp 11.083
16 480 14,15,16 1920 Rp 33.240.000 Rp 17.313
15 720 15 720 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 4.167

16 480 15,16 1200 Rp 11.640.000 Rp 9.700
17 500 15,16,17 1700 Rp 29.640.000 Rp 17.435
16 480 16 480 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 6.250

17 500 16,17 980 Rp 12.000.000 Rp 12.245
18 750 16,17,18 1730 Rp 39.000.000 Rp 22.543
17 500 17 500 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 6.000

18 750 17,18 1250 Rp 16.500.000 Rp 13.200
19 750 17,18,19 2000 Rp 43.500.000 Rp 21.750
18 750 18 750 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 4.000

19 750 18,19 1500 Rp 16.500.000 Rp 11.000
20 750 18,19,20 2250 Rp 43.500.000 Rp 19.333
19 750 19 750 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 4.000

20 750 19,20 1500 Rp 16.500.000 Rp 11.000
21 860 19,20,21 2360 Rp 47.460.000 Rp 20.110
20 750 20 750 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 4.000

21 860 20,21 1610 Rp 18.480.000 Rp 11.478
22 874 20,21,22 2484 Rp 49.944.000 Rp 20.106
21 860 21 860 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.488

22 874 21,22 1734 Rp 18.732.000 Rp 10.803
23 728 21,22,23 2462 Rp 44.940.000 Rp 18.253
22 874 22 874 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.432

23 728 22,23 1602 Rp 16.104.000 Rp 10.052
24 874 22,23,24 2476 Rp 47.568.000 Rp 19.212
4.39
23 728 23 728 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 4.121

24 874 23,24 1602 Rp 18.732.000 Rp 11.693
25 436 23,24,25 2038 Rp 34.428.000 Rp 16.893
24 874 24 874 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.432

25 436 24,25 1310 Rp 10.848.000 Rp 8.281
4.40
Table 4.32. LUC Product B
Period (Week) -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Lot Sizing 614 646 540 646 720 720 720 720 742 750 750
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
750 622 720 720 720 480 500 750 750 750 860 874 728 874 436 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
750 622 720 720 720 480 500 750 750 750 860 874 728 874 436 0
750 622 720 720 720 480 500 750 750 750 860 874 728 874 436 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
622 720 720 720 480 500 750 750 750 860 874 728 874 436 0 0

Holding Cost 0 Rp -
4.41
 Item C
= + ×𝐻
×𝐻
belows.
= + × × =
= =
Period Net Trial Trial Lot Cummulative Cost per

Requirem periods Size Cost unit
d Req)
0 307 0 307Rp Rp
3.000.000 9.772
1 323 0,1 630 Rp Rp
8.814.000 13.990
2 270 0,1,2 900 Rp Rp
18.534.000 20.593
Combine only
period 0
1 323 1 323 Rp Rp
3.000.000 9.288
2 270 1,2 593 Rp Rp
7.860.000 13.255
3 323 1,2,3 916 Rp Rp
19.488.000 21.275
4.42
2 270 2 270 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 11.111

3 323 2,3 593 Rp 8.814.000 Rp 14.863
4 360 2,3,4 953 Rp 21.774.000 Rp 22.848
Only period 2
3 323 3 323 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 9.288
4 360 3,4 683 Rp 9.480.000 Rp 13.880
5 360 3,4,5 1043 Rp 22.440.000 Rp 21.515
Only period 3
4 360 4 360 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 8.333
5 360 4,5 720 Rp 9.480.000 Rp 13.167
6 360 4,5,6 1080 Rp 22.440.000 Rp 20.778
Only period 4
5 360 5 360 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 8.333
6 360 5,6 720 Rp 9.480.000 Rp 13.167
7 360 5,6,7 1080 Rp 22.440.000 Rp 20.778
Only Period 5
6 360 6 360 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 8.333
7 360 6,7 720 Rp 9.480.000 Rp 13.167
8 371 6,7,8 1091 Rp 22.836.000 Rp 20.931
Only Period 6
7 360 7 360 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 8.333
8 371 7,8 731 Rp 9.678.000 Rp 13.239
9 375 7,8,9 1106 Rp 23.178.000 Rp 20.957
Only Period 7
8 371 8 371 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 8.086
9 375 8,9 746 Rp 9.750.000 Rp 13.070
10 375 8,9,10 1121 Rp 23.250.000 Rp 20.740
Only Period 8
9 375 9 375 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 8.000
10 375 9,1 750 Rp 9.750.000 Rp 13.000
11 375 9,10,11 1125 Rp 23.250.000 Rp 20.667
Only Period 9
10 375 10 375 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 8.000
11 375 10,11 750 Rp 9.750.000 Rp 13.000
12 311 10,11,12 1061 Rp 20.946.000 Rp 19.742
Only Period 10
11 375 11 375 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 8.000
12 311 11,12 686 Rp 8.598.000 Rp 12.534
13 360 11,12,13 1046 Rp 21.558.000 Rp 20.610
4.43
13 360 13 360 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 8.333

14 360 13,14 720 Rp 9.480.000 Rp 13.167
15 360 13,14,15 1080 Rp 22.440.000 Rp 20.778
14 360 14 360 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 8.333

15 360 14,15 720 Rp 9.480.000 Rp 13.167
16 240 14,15,16 960 Rp 18.120.000 Rp 18.875
15 360 15 360 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 8.333

16 240 15,16 600 Rp 7.320.000 Rp 12.200
17 250 15,16,17 850 Rp 16.320.000 Rp 19.200
16 240 16 240 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 12.500

17 250 16,17 490 Rp 7.500.000 Rp 15.306
18 375 16,17,18 865 Rp 21.000.000 Rp 24.277
17 250 17 250 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 12.000

18 375 17,18 625 Rp 9.750.000 Rp 15.600
19 375 17,18,19 1000 Rp 23.250.000 Rp 23.250
18 375 18 375 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 8.000

19 375 18,19 750 Rp 9.750.000 Rp 13.000
20 375 18,19,20 1125 Rp 23.250.000 Rp 20.667
19 375 19 375 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 8.000

20 375 19,20 750 Rp 9.750.000 Rp 13.000
21 430 19,20,21 1180 Rp 25.230.000 Rp 21.381
20 375 20 375 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 8.000

21 430 20,21 805 Rp 10.740.000 Rp 13.342
22 437 20,21,22 1242 Rp 26.472.000 Rp 21.314
21 430 21 430 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 6.977

22 437 21,22 867 Rp 10.866.000 Rp 12.533
23 364 21,22,23 1231 Rp 23.970.000 Rp 19.472
4.44
22 437 22 437 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 6.865

23 364 22,23 801 Rp 9.552.000 Rp 11.925
24 437 22,23,24 1238 Rp 25.284.000 Rp 20.423
23 364 23 364 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 8.242

24 437 23,24 801 Rp 10.866.000 Rp 13.566
25 218 23,24,25 1019 Rp 18.714.000 Rp 18.365
24 437 24 437 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 6.865

25 218 24,25 655 Rp 6.924.000 Rp 10.571
4.45
Table 4.35. LUC Product C
Period (Week) -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Lot Sizing 307 323 270 323 360 360 360 360 371 375 375
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
375 311 360 360 360 240 250 375 375 375 430 437 364 437 218 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
375 311 360 360 360 240 250 375 375 375 430 437 364 437 218 0
375 311 360 360 360 240 250 375 375 375 430 437 364 437 218 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
311 360 360 360 240 250 375 375 375 430 437 364 437 218 0 0

Holding Cost 0 Rp -
4.46
 Item D
= + ×𝐻
×𝐻
belows.
= + × × =
= =
Req)
-1 1842 -1 1842 Rp Rp
3.000.000 1.629
0 1938 -1,0 3780 Rp Rp
37.884.000 10.022
1 1620 -1,0,1 5400 Rp Rp
96.204.000 17.816
0 1938 0 1938 Rp Rp
3.000.000 1.548
1 1620 0,1 3558 Rp Rp
32.160.000 9.039
2 1938 0,1,2 5496 Rp Rp
101.928.000 18.546
4.47
1 1620 1 1620 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 1.852

2 1938 1,2 3558 Rp 37.884.000 Rp 10.648
3 2160 1,2,3 5718 Rp 115.644.000 Rp 20.225
Combine only period 1
2 1938 2 1938 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 1.548
3 2160 2,3 4098 Rp 41.880.000 Rp 10.220
4 2160 2,3,4 6258 Rp 119.640.000 Rp 19.118
Only period 2
3 2160 3 2160 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 1.389
4 2160 3,4 4320 Rp 41.880.000 Rp 9.694
5 2160 3,4,5 6480 Rp 119.640.000 Rp 18.463
Only period 3
4 2160 4 2160 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 1.389
5 2160 4,5 4320 Rp 41.880.000 Rp 9.694
6 2160 4,5,6 6480 Rp 119.640.000 Rp 18.463
Only period 4
5 2160 5 2160 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 1.389
6 2160 5,6 4320 Rp 41.880.000 Rp 9.694
7 2226 5,6,7 6546 Rp 122.016.000 Rp 18.640
Only Period 5
6 2160 6 2160 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 1.389
7 2226 6,7 4386 Rp 43.068.000 Rp 9.819
8 2250 6,7,8 6636 Rp 124.068.000 Rp 18.696
Only Period 6
4.48
7 2226 7 2226 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 1.348

8 2250 7,8 4476 Rp 43.500.000 Rp 9.718
9 2250 7,8,9 6726 Rp 124.500.000 Rp 18.510
Only Period 7
8 2250 8 2250 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 1.333
9 2250 8,9 4500 Rp 43.500.000 Rp 9.667
10 2250 8,9,10 6750 Rp 124.500.000 Rp 18.444
Only Period 8
9 2250 9 2250 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 1.333
10 2250 9,1 4500 Rp 43.500.000 Rp 9.667
11 1866 9,10,11 6366 Rp 110.676.000 Rp 17.385
Only Period 9
10 2250 10 2250 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 1.333
11 1866 10,11 4116 Rp 36.588.000 Rp 8.889
12 2160 10,11,12 6276 Rp 114.348.000 Rp 18.220
Only Period 10
11 1866 11 1866 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 1.608
12 2160 11,12 4026 Rp 41.880.000 Rp 10.402
13 2160 11,12,13 6186 Rp 119.640.000 Rp 19.340
Only Period 11
4.49
12 2160 12 2160 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 1.389

13 2160 12,13 4320 Rp 41.880.000 Rp 9.694
14 2160 12,13,14 6480 Rp 119.640.000 Rp 18.463
13 2160 13 2160 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 1.389

14 2160 13,14 4320 Rp 41.880.000 Rp 9.694
15 1440 13,14,15 5760 Rp 93.720.000 Rp 16.271
14 2160 14 2160 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 1.389

15 1440 14,15 3600 Rp 28.920.000 Rp 8.033
16 1500 14,15,16 5100 Rp 82.920.000 Rp 16.259
15 1440 15 1440 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 2.083

16 1500 15,16 2940 Rp 30.000.000 Rp 10.204
17 2250 15,16,17 5190 Rp 111.000.000 Rp 21.387
16 1500 16 1500 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 2.000

17 2250 16,17 3750 Rp 43.500.000 Rp 11.600
18 2250 16,17,18 6000 Rp 124.500.000 Rp 20.750
17 2250 17 2250 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 1.333

18 2250 17,18 4500 Rp 43.500.000 Rp 9.667
19 2250 17,18,19 6750 Rp 124.500.000 Rp 18.444
18 2250 18 2250 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 1.333

19 2250 18,19 4500 Rp 43.500.000 Rp 9.667
20 2580 18,19,20 7080 Rp 136.380.000 Rp 19.263
19 2250 19 2250 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 1.333

20 2580 19,20 4830 Rp 49.440.000 Rp 10.236
21 2622 19,20,21 7452 Rp 143.832.000 Rp 19.301
20 2580 20 2580 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 1.163

21 2622 20,21 5202 Rp 50.196.000 Rp 9.649
22 2184 20,21,22 7386 Rp 128.820.000 Rp 17.441
21 2622 21 2622 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 1.144

22 2184 21,22 4806 Rp 42.312.000 Rp 8.804
23 2622 21,22,23 7428 Rp 136.704.000 Rp 18.404
4.50
22 2184 22 2184 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 1.374

23 2622 22,23 4806 Rp 50.196.000 Rp 10.444
24 1308 22,23,24 6114 Rp 97.284.000 Rp 15.912
23 2622 23 2622 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 1.144

24 1308 23,24 3930 Rp 26.544.000 Rp 6.754
4.51
Table 4.38. LUC Product D
Period (Week) -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Lot Sizing 1842 1938 1620 1938 2160 2160 2160 2160 2226 2250 2250 2250
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
1866 2160 2160 2160 1440 1500 2250 2250 2250 2580 2622 2184 2622 1308 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1866 2160 2160 2160 1440 1500 2250 2250 2250 2580 2622 2184 2622 1308 0 0
1866 2160 2160 2160 1440 1500 2250 2250 2250 2580 2622 2184 2622 1308 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2160 2160 2160 1440 1500 2250 2250 2250 2580 2622 2184 2622 1308 0 0 0

Holding Cost 0 Rp -
4.52
 Item E
= + ×𝐻
×𝐻
belows.
= + × × =
= =
Req)
-2 7368 -2 7368 Rp Rp
3.000.000 407
-1 8980 -2,-1 16348 Rp Rp
164.640.000 10.071
0 7772 -2,-1,0 24120 Rp Rp
444.432.000 18.426
-1 8980 -1 8980 Rp Rp
3.000.000 334
0 7772 -1,0 16752 Rp Rp
142.896.000 8.530
1 8832 -1,0,1 25584 Rp Rp
460.848.000 18.013
4.53
0 7772 0 7772 Rp Rp
3.000.000 386
1 8832 0,1 1660 Rp Rp 9.755
4 161.976.000
2 9932 0,1, 2653 Rp Rp
2 6 519.528.000 19.578
Combine only period
0
1 8832 1 8832 Rp Rp
3.000.000 340
2 9932 1,2 1876 Rp Rp 9.687
4 181.776.000
3 1008 1,2, 2884 Rp Rp
0 3 4 544.656.000 18.883
2 9932 2 9932 Rp Rp
3.000.000 302
3 1008 2,3 2001 Rp Rp 9.216
0 2 184.440.000
4 1008 2,3, 3009 Rp Rp
0 4 2 547.320.000 18.188
Only period 2
3 1008 3 1008 Rp Rp
0 0 3.000.000 298
4 1008 3,4 2016 Rp Rp 9.149
0 0 184.440.000
5 1008 3,4, 3024 Rp Rp
0 5 0 547.320.000 18.099
Only period 3
4 1008 4 1008 Rp Rp
0 0 3.000.000 298
5 1008 4,5 2016 Rp Rp 9.149
0 0 184.440.000
6 1034 4,5, 3050 Rp Rp
4 6 4 556.824.000 18.254
Only period 4
5 1008 5 1008 Rp Rp
0 0 3.000.000 298
6 1034 5,6 2042 Rp Rp 9.263
4 4 189.192.000
7 1048 5,6, 3090 Rp Rp
4 7 8 566.616.000 18.332
Only Period 5
4.54
6 10344 6 10344 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 290

7 10484 6,7 20828 Rp 191.712.000 Rp 9.205
8 10500 6,7,8 31328 Rp 569.712.000 Rp 18.185
Only Period 6
7 10484 7 10484 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 286
8 10500 7,8 20984 Rp 192.000.000 Rp 9.150
9 10500 7,8,9 31484 Rp 570.000.000 Rp 18.104
Only Period 7
8 10500 8 10500 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 286
9 10500 8,9 21000 Rp 192.000.000 Rp 9.143
10 8964 8,9,10 29964 Rp 514.704.000 Rp 17.177
Only Period 8
9 10500 9 10500 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 286
10 8964 9,1 19464 Rp 164.352.000 Rp 8.444
11 9884 9,10,11 29348 Rp 520.176.000 Rp 17.724
Only Period 9
10 8964 10 8964 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 335
11 9884 10,11 18848 Rp 180.912.000 Rp 9.598
12 10080 10,11,12 28928 Rp 543.792.000 Rp 18.798
Only Period 10
11 9884 11 9884 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 304
12 10080 11,12 19964 Rp 184.440.000 Rp 9.239
13 10080 11,12,13 30044 Rp 547.320.000 Rp 18.217
Only Period 11
4.55
12 10080 12 10080 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 298

13 10080 12,13 20160 Rp 184.440.000 Rp 9.149
14 7200 12,13,14 27360 Rp 443.640.000 Rp 16.215
Only Period 12
13 10080 13 10080 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 298
14 7200 13,14 17280 Rp 132.600.000 Rp 7.674
15 6960 13,14,15 24240 Rp 383.160.000 Rp 15.807
14 7200 14 7200 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 417

15 6960 14,15 14160 Rp 128.280.000 Rp 9.059
16 10000 14,15,16 24160 Rp 488.280.000 Rp 20.210
15 6960 15 6960 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 431

16 10000 15,16 16960 Rp 183.000.000 Rp 10.790
17 10500 15,16,17 27460 Rp 561.000.000 Rp 20.430
16 10000 16 10000 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 300

17 10500 16,17 20500 Rp 192.000.000 Rp 9.366
18 10500 16,17,18 31000 Rp 570.000.000 Rp 18.387
17 10500 17 10500 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 286

18 10500 17,18 21000 Rp 192.000.000 Rp 9.143
19 11820 17,18,19 32820 Rp 617.520.000 Rp 18.815
18 10500 18 10500 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 286

19 11820 18,19 22320 Rp 215.760.000 Rp 9.667
20 12208 18,19,20 34528 Rp 655.248.000 Rp 18.977
19 11820 19 11820 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 254

20 12208 19,20 24028 Rp 222.744.000 Rp 9.270
21 10484 19,20,21 34512 Rp 600.168.000 Rp 17.390
4.56
20 12208 20 12208 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 246

21 10484 20,21 22692 Rp 191.712.000 Rp 8.448
22 11944 20,21,22 34636 Rp 621.696.000 Rp 17.949
21 10484 21 10484 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 286

22 11944 21,22 22428 Rp 217.992.000 Rp 9.720
23 6980 21,22,23 29408 Rp 469.272.000 Rp 15.957
22 11944 22 11944 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 251

23 6980 22,23 18924 Rp 128.640.000 Rp 6.798
24 872 22,23,24 19796 Rp 160.032.000 Rp 8.084
23 6980 23 6980 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 430

24 872 23,24 7852 Rp 18.696.000 Rp 2.381
4.57
Table 4.41. LUC Product E
Period (Week) -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Lot Sizing 7368 8980 7772 8832 9932 10080 10080 10080 10344 10484 10500 10500 8964
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
9884 10080 10080 7200 6960 10000 10500 10500 11820 12208 10484 11944 6980 872 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
9884 10080 10080 7200 6960 10000 10500 10500 11820 12208 10484 11944 6980 872 0 0
9884 10080 10080 7200 6960 10000 10500 10500 11820 12208 10484 11944 6980 872 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
10080 10080 7200 6960 10000 10500 10500 11820 12208 10484 11944 6980 872 0 0 0

Holding Cost 0 Rp -
4.58
 Item F
= + ×𝐻
×𝐻
belows.
= + × × =
= =
Req)
-1 614 -1 614 Rp Rp
3.000.000 4.886
0 646 -1,0 1260 Rp Rp
14.628.000 11.610
1 540 -1,0,1 1800 Rp Rp
34.068.000 18.927
0 646 0 646
Rp Rp
3.000.000 4.644
1 540 0,1 1186 Rp Rp
12.720.000 10.725
2 646 0,1,2 1832 Rp Rp
35.976.000 19.638
4.59
1 540 1 540 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 5.556

2 646 1,2 1186 Rp 14.628.000 Rp 12.334
3 720 1,2,3 1906 Rp 40.548.000 Rp 21.274
2 646 2 646 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 4.644
3 720 2,3 1366 Rp 15.960.000 Rp 11.684
4 720 2,3,4 2086 Rp 41.880.000 Rp 20.077
Only period 2
3 720 3 720 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 4.167
4 720 3,4 1440 Rp 15.960.000 Rp 11.083
5 720 3,4,5 2160 Rp 41.880.000 Rp 19.389
Only period 3
4 720 4 720 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 4.167
5 720 4,5 1440 Rp 15.960.000 Rp 11.083
6 720 4,5,6 2160 Rp 41.880.000 Rp 19.389
Only period 4
5 720 5 720 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 4.167
6 720 5,6 1440 Rp 15.960.000 Rp 11.083
7 742 5,6,7 2182 Rp 42.672.000 Rp 19.556
Only Period 5
6 720 6 720 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 4.167
7 742 6,7 1462 Rp 16.356.000 Rp 11.187
8 750 6,7,8 2212 Rp 43.356.000 Rp 19.600
Only Period 6
7 742 7 742 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 4.043
8 750 7,8 1492 Rp 16.500.000 Rp 11.059
9 750 7,8,9 2242 Rp 43.500.000 Rp 19.402
4.60
8 750 8 750 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 4.000

9 750 8,9 1500 Rp 16.500.000 Rp 11.000
10 750 8,9,10 2250 Rp 43.500.000 Rp 19.333
Only Period 8
9 750 9 750 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 4.000
10 750 9,1 1500 Rp 16.500.000 Rp 11.000
11 622 9,10,11 2122 Rp 38.892.000 Rp 18.328
Only Period 9
10 750 10 750 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 4.000
11 622 10,11 1372 Rp 14.196.000 Rp 10.347
12 720 10,11,12 2092 Rp 40.116.000 Rp 19.176
Only Period 10
11 622 11 622 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 4.823
12 720 11,12 1342 Rp 15.960.000 Rp 11.893
13 720 11,12,13 2062 Rp 41.880.000 Rp 20.310
Only Period 11
12 720 12 720 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 4.167
13 720 12,13 1440 Rp 15.960.000 Rp 11.083
14 720 12,13,14 2160 Rp 41.880.000 Rp 19.389
Only Period 12
13 720 13 720 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 4.167
14 720 13,14 1440 Rp Rp 11.083
15.960.000
15 480 13,14,15 1920 Rp Rp 17.313
33.240.000
14 720 14 720 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 4.167

15 480 14,15 1200 Rp Rp 9.700
11.640.000
16 500 14,15,16 1700 Rp Rp 17.435
29.640.000
4.61
15 480 15 480 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 6.250

16 500 15,16 980 Rp 12.000.000 Rp 12.245
17 750 15,16,17 1730 Rp 39.000.000 Rp 22.543
16 500 16 500 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 6.000

17 750 16,17 1250 Rp 16.500.000 Rp 13.200
18 750 16,17,18 2000 Rp 43.500.000 Rp 21.750
17 750 17 750 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 4.000

18 750 17,18 1500 Rp 16.500.000 Rp 11.000
19 750 17,18,19 2250 Rp 43.500.000 Rp 19.333
18 750 18 750 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 4.000

19 750 18,19 1500 Rp 16.500.000 Rp 11.000
20 860 18,19,20 2360 Rp 47.460.000 Rp 20.110
19 750 19 750 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 4.000

20 860 19,20 1610 Rp 18.480.000 Rp 11.478
21 874 19,20,21 2484 Rp 49.944.000 Rp 20.106
20 860 20 860 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.488

21 874 20,21 1734 Rp 18.732.000 Rp 10.803
22 728 20,21,22 2462 Rp 44.940.000 Rp 18.253
21 874 21 874 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.432

22 728 21,22 1602 Rp 16.104.000 Rp 10.052
23 874 21,22,23 2476 Rp 47.568.000 Rp 19.212
22 728 22 728 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 4.121

23 874 22,23 1602 Rp 18.732.000 Rp 11.693
24 436 22,23,24 2038 Rp 34.428.000 Rp 16.893
23 874 23 874 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.432

24 436 23,24 1310 Rp 10.848.000 Rp 8.281
4.62
Table 4.44. LUC Product F
Period (Week) -2
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Lot Sizing 614 646 540 646 720 720 720 720 742 750 750 750
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
622 720 720 720 480 500 750 750 750 860 874 728 874 436 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
622 720 720 720 480 500 750 750 750 860 874 728 874 436 0 0
622 720 720 720 480 500 750 750 750 860 874 728 874 436 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
720 720 720 480 500 750 750 750 860 874 728 874 436 0 0 0

Holding Cost 0 Rp -
4.63
4.4. Least Total Cost (LTC)
LTC approach tries to balance the holding and set up (ordering) cost. The lot-for-
lot conducted in each items, such as belows. All of items are assumed, has same
lead time equal with 1 week, no safety stock, ordering cost per week is Rp 3.000.000
and holding cost is Rp 18.000/unit/month.
cost by using LTC is Rp 481.800.000.
PART COST
X Rp 79.800.000
B Rp 81.000.000
C Rp 81.000.000
D Rp 78.000.000
E Rp 84.000.000
F Rp 78.000.000
TOTAL COST ALL Rp 481.800.000
PART
 Product X
conducted. The value of holding cost is calculated by formula as belows.
𝐻 = ×𝐻 ×𝐻
For example, 1st period, so the calculation of holding cost as belows.
𝐻 = × × =
If the value of cummulative holding cost increased, so cut the period and starting
new calculation from that period to next period.
4.64
Peri Net Trial Trial Lot Periods Holding Cost Cum.

od Require periods Size Carried Holding Cost
ments Combin (Cum. Net (IDR) (IDR)
ed Req)
1 307 1 307 0 Rp Rp
- -
2 323 1,2 630 1 Rp Rp
5.814.000 5.814.000
3 270 1,2,3 900 2 Rp Rp
9.720.000 15.534.000
Combine only
period 1
2 323 2 323 0 Rp Rp
- -
3 270 2,3 593 1 Rp Rp
4.860.000 4.860.000
4 323 2,3,4 916 2 Rp Rp
11.628.000 16.488.000
Only period 2
3 270 3 270 0 Rp Rp
- -
4 323 3,4 593 1 Rp Rp
5.814.000 5.814.000
5 360 3,4,5 953 2 Rp Rp
12.960.000 18.774.000
Only period 3
4 323 4 323 0 Rp Rp
- -
5 360 4,5 683 1 Rp Rp
6.480.000 6.480.000
6 360 4,5,6 1043 2 Rp Rp
12.960.000 19.440.000
Only period 4
5 360 5 360 0 Rp Rp
- -
6 360 5,6 720 1 Rp Rp
6.480.000 6.480.000
7 360 5,6,7 1080 2 Rp Rp
12.960.000 19.440.000
Only Period 5
4.65
6 360 6 360 0 Rp - Rp -
7 360 6,7 720 1 Rp 6.480.000 Rp 6.480.000
8 360 6,7,8 1080 2 Rp 12.960.000 Rp 19.440.000
Only Period 6
7 360 7 360 0 Rp - Rp -
8 360 7,8 720 1 Rp 6.480.000 Rp 6.480.000
9 371 7,8,9 1091 2 Rp 13.356.000 Rp 19.836.000
Only Period 7
8 360 8 360 0 Rp - Rp -
9 371 8,9 731 1 Rp 6.678.000 Rp 6.678.000
10 375 8,9,10 1106 2 Rp 13.500.000 Rp 20.178.000
Only Period 8
9 371 9 371 0 Rp - Rp -
10 375 9,1 746 1 Rp 6.750.000 Rp 6.750.000
11 375 9,10,11 1121 2 Rp 13.500.000 Rp 20.250.000
Only Period 9
10 375 10 375 0 Rp - Rp -
11 375 10,11 750 1 Rp 6.750.000 Rp 6.750.000
12 375 10,11,12 1125 2 Rp 13.500.000 Rp 20.250.000
Only Period 10
11 375 11 375 0 Rp - Rp -
12 375 11,12 750 1 Rp 6.750.000 Rp 6.750.000
13 311 11,12,13 1061 2 Rp 11.196.000 Rp 17.946.000
Only Period 11
12 375 12 375 0 Rp - Rp -
13 311 12,13 686 1 Rp 5.598.000 Rp 5.598.000
14 360 12,13,14 1046 2 Rp 12.960.000 Rp 18.558.000
Only Period 12
13 311 13 311 0 Rp - Rp -
14 360 13,14 671 1 Rp 6.480.000 Rp 6.480.000
15 360 13,14,15 1031 2 Rp 12.960.000 Rp 19.440.000
4.66
14 360 14 360 0 Rp - Rp -
15 360 14,15 720 1 Rp 6.480.000 Rp 6.480.000
16 360 14,15,16 1080 2 Rp 12.960.000 Rp 19.440.000
15 360 15 360 0 Rp - Rp -
16 360 15,16 720 1 Rp 6.480.000 Rp 6.480.000
17 240 15,16,17 960 2 Rp 8.640.000 Rp 15.120.000
16 360 16 360 0 Rp - Rp -
17 240 16,17 600 1 Rp 4.320.000 Rp 4.320.000
18 250 16,17,18 850 2 Rp 9.000.000 Rp 13.320.000
17 240 17 240 0 Rp - Rp -
18 250 17,18 490 1 Rp 4.500.000 Rp 4.500.000
19 375 17,18,19 865 2 Rp 13.500.000 Rp 18.000.000
18 250 18 250 0 Rp - Rp -
19 375 18,19 625 1 Rp 6.750.000 Rp 6.750.000
20 375 18,19,20 1000 2 Rp 13.500.000 Rp 20.250.000
19 375 19 375 0 Rp - Rp -
20 375 19,20 750 1 Rp 6.750.000 Rp 6.750.000
21 375 19,20,21 1125 2 Rp 13.500.000 Rp 20.250.000
20 375 20 375 0 Rp - Rp -
21 375 20,21 750 1 Rp 6.750.000 Rp 6.750.000
22 430 20,21,22 1180 2 Rp 15.480.000 Rp 22.230.000
21 375 21 375 0 Rp - Rp -
22 430 21,22 805 1 Rp 7.740.000 Rp 7.740.000
23 437 21,22,23 1242 2 Rp 15.732.000 Rp 23.472.000
22 430 22 430 0 Rp - Rp -
23 437 22,23 867 1 Rp 7.866.000 Rp 7.866.000
24 364 22,23,24 1231 2 Rp 13.104.000 Rp 20.970.000
23 437 23 437 0 Rp - Rp -
24 364 23,24 801 1 Rp 6.552.000 Rp 6.552.000
25 437 23,24,25 1238 2 Rp 15.732.000 Rp 22.284.000
4.67
24 364 24 364 0 Rp - Rp -
25 437 24,25 801 1 Rp 7.866.000 Rp 7.866.000
26 218 24,25,26 1019 2 Rp 7.848.000 Rp 15.714.000
25 437 25 437 0 Rp - Rp -
26 218 25,26 655 1 Rp 3.924.000 Rp 3.924.000
4.68
Table 4.48. LUC Product X
Period (Week) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Schedule Receipt
Lot Sizing 307 323 270 323 360 360 360 360 371 375
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
375 375 311 360 360 360 240 250 375 375 375 430 437 364 437 218
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
375 375 311 360 360 360 240 250 375 375 375 430 437 364 437 218
375 375 311 360 360 360 240 250 375 375 375 430 437 364 437 218
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100
375 311 360 360 360 240 250 375 375 375 430 437 364 437 218 0

4.69
 Item B
𝐻 = ×𝐻 ×𝐻
𝐻 = × × =
Period Net Trial Trial Lot Periods Holding Cum.

Require periods Size Carried Cost Holding
ments Cost
Combi (Cum. (IDR) (IDR)
ned Net Req)
0 614 0 614 0 Rp Rp
- -
1 646 0,1 1260 1 Rp Rp
11.628.000 11.628.000
2 540 0,1,2 1800 2 Rp Rp
19.440.000 31.068.000
Combine
only period 0
1 646 1 646 0 Rp Rp
- -
2 540 1,2 1186 1 Rp Rp
9.720.000 9.720.000
3 646 1,2,3 1832 2 Rp Rp
23.256.000 32.976.000
2 540 2 540 0 Rp Rp
- -
3 646 2,3 1186 1 Rp Rp
11.628.000 11.628.000
4 720 2,3,4 1906 2 Rp Rp
25.920.000 37.548.000
Only period 2
4.70
3 646 3 646 0 Rp - Rp -
4 720 3,4 1366 1 Rp 12.960.000 Rp 12.960.000
5 720 3,4,5 2086 2 Rp 25.920.000 Rp 38.880.000
Only period 3
4 720 4 720 0 Rp - Rp -
5 720 4,5 1440 1 Rp 12.960.000 Rp 12.960.000
6 720 4,5,6 2160 2 Rp 25.920.000 Rp 38.880.000
Only period 4
5 720 5 720 0 Rp - Rp -
6 720 5,6 1440 1 Rp 12.960.000 Rp 12.960.000
7 720 5,6,7 2160 2 Rp 25.920.000 Rp 38.880.000
Only Period 5
6 720 6 720 0 Rp - Rp -
7 720 6,7 1440 1 Rp 12.960.000 Rp 12.960.000
8 742 6,7,8 2182 2 Rp 26.712.000 Rp 39.672.000
Only Period 6
7 720 7 720 0 Rp - Rp -
8 742 7,8 1462 1 Rp 13.356.000 Rp 13.356.000
9 750 7,8,9 2212 2 Rp 27.000.000 Rp 40.356.000
Only Period 7
8 742 8 742 0 Rp - Rp -
9 750 8,9 1492 1 Rp 13.500.000 Rp 13.500.000
10 750 8,9,10 2242 2 Rp 27.000.000 Rp 40.500.000
Only Period 8
9 750 9 750 0 Rp - Rp -
10 750 9,1 1500 1 Rp 13.500.000 Rp 13.500.000
11 750 9,10,11 2250 2 Rp 27.000.000 Rp 40.500.000
Only Period 9
10 750 10 750 0 Rp - Rp -
11 750 10,11 1500 1 Rp 13.500.000 Rp 13.500.000
12 622 10,11,12 2122 2 Rp 22.392.000 Rp 35.892.000
Only Period 10
11 750 11 750 0 Rp - Rp -
12 622 11,12 1372 1 Rp 11.196.000 Rp 11.196.000
13 720 11,12,13 2092 2 Rp 25.920.000 Rp 37.116.000
Only Period 11
12 622 12 622 0 Rp - Rp -
13 720 12,13 1342 1 Rp 12.960.000 Rp 12.960.000
14 720 12,13,14 2062 2 Rp 25.920.000 Rp 38.880.000
4.71
13 720 13 720 0 Rp - Rp -
14 720 13,14 1440 1 Rp 12.960.000 Rp 12.960.000
15 720 13,14,15 2160 2 Rp 25.920.000 Rp 38.880.000
14 720 14 720 0 Rp - Rp -
15 720 14,15 1440 1 Rp 12.960.000 Rp 12.960.000
16 480 14,15,16 1920 2 Rp 17.280.000 Rp 30.240.000
15 720 15 720 0 Rp - Rp -
16 480 15,16 1200 1 Rp 8.640.000 Rp 8.640.000
17 500 15,16,17 1700 2 Rp 18.000.000 Rp 26.640.000
16 480 16 480 0 Rp - Rp -
17 500 16,17 980 1 Rp 9.000.000 Rp 9.000.000
18 750 16,17,18 1730 2 Rp 27.000.000 Rp 36.000.000
17 500 17 500 0 Rp - Rp -
18 750 17,18 1250 1 Rp 13.500.000 Rp 13.500.000
19 750 17,18,19 2000 2 Rp 27.000.000 Rp 40.500.000
18 750 18 750 0 Rp - Rp -
19 750 18,19 1500 1 Rp 13.500.000 Rp 13.500.000
20 750 18,19,20 2250 2 Rp 27.000.000 Rp 40.500.000
19 750 19 750 0 Rp - Rp -
20 750 19,20 1500 1 Rp 13.500.000 Rp 13.500.000
21 860 19,20,21 2360 2 Rp 30.960.000 Rp 44.460.000
20 750 20 750 0 Rp - Rp -
21 860 20,21 1610 1 Rp 15.480.000 Rp 15.480.000
22 874 20,21,22 2484 2 Rp 31.464.000 Rp 46.944.000
21 860 21 860 0 Rp - Rp -
22 874 21,22 1734 1 Rp 15.732.000 Rp 15.732.000
23 728 21,22,23 2462 2 Rp 26.208.000 Rp 41.940.000
22 874 22 874 0 Rp - Rp -
23 728 22,23 1602 1 Rp 13.104.000 Rp 13.104.000
24 874 22,23,24 2476 2 Rp 31.464.000 Rp 44.568.000
4.72
23 728 23 728 0 Rp - Rp -
24 874 23,24 1602 1 Rp 15.732.000 Rp 15.732.000
25 436 23,24,25 2038 2 Rp 15.696.000 Rp 31.428.000
24 874 24 874 0 Rp - Rp -
25 436 24,25 1310 1 Rp 7.848.000 Rp 7.848.000
4.73
Table 4.51. LUC Product B
Period (Week) -1
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Lot Sizing 614 646 540 646 720 720 720 720 742 750 750
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 26
750 622 720 720 720 480 500 750 750 750 860 874 728 874 436 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
750 622 720 720 720 480 500 750 750 750 860 874 728 874 436 0 0
750 622 720 720 720 480 500 750 750 750 860 874 728 874 436 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
622 720 720 720 480 500 750 750 750 860 874 728 874 436 0 0 0

Holding Cost 0 Rp -
4.74
 Item C
𝐻 = ×𝐻 ×𝐻
𝐻 = × × =

ments Cost
ned Net Req)
0 307 0 307 0 Rp Rp
- -
1 323 0,1 630 1 Rp Rp
5.814.000 5.814.000
2 270 0,1,2 900 2 Rp Rp
9.720.000 15.534.000
Combine
only period 0
1 323 1 323 0 Rp Rp
- -
2 270 1,2 593 1 Rp Rp
4.860.000 4.860.000
3 323 1,2,3 916 2 Rp Rp
11.628.000 16.488.000
2 270 2 270 0 Rp Rp
- -
3 323 2,3 593 1 Rp Rp
5.814.000 5.814.000
4 360 2,3,4 953 2 Rp Rp
12.960.000 18.774.000
Only period 2
4.75
3 323 3 323 0 Rp - Rp -
4 360 3,4 683 1 Rp 6.480.000 Rp 6.480.000
5 360 3,4,5 1043 2 Rp 12.960.000 Rp 19.440.000
Only period 3
4 360 4 360 0 Rp - Rp -
5 360 4,5 720 1 Rp 6.480.000 Rp 6.480.000
6 360 4,5,6 1080 2 Rp 12.960.000 Rp 19.440.000
Only period 4
5 360 5 360 0 Rp - Rp -
6 360 5,6 720 1 Rp 6.480.000 Rp 6.480.000
7 360 5,6,7 1080 2 Rp 12.960.000 Rp 19.440.000
Only Period 5
6 360 6 360 0 Rp - Rp -
7 360 6,7 720 1 Rp 6.480.000 Rp 6.480.000
8 371 6,7,8 1091 2 Rp 13.356.000 Rp 19.836.000
Only Period 6
7 360 7 360 0 Rp - Rp -
8 371 7,8 731 1 Rp 6.678.000 Rp 6.678.000
9 375 7,8,9 1106 2 Rp 13.500.000 Rp 20.178.000
Only Period 7
8 371 8 371 0 Rp - Rp -
9 375 8,9 746 1 Rp 6.750.000 Rp 6.750.000
10 375 8,9,10 1121 2 Rp 13.500.000 Rp 20.250.000
Only Period 8
9 375 9 375 0 Rp - Rp -
10 375 9,1 750 1 Rp 6.750.000 Rp 6.750.000
11 375 9,10,11 1125 2 Rp 13.500.000 Rp 20.250.000
Only Period 9
10 375 10 375 0 Rp - Rp -
11 375 10,11 750 1 Rp 6.750.000 Rp 6.750.000
12 311 10,11,12 1061 2 Rp 11.196.000 Rp 17.946.000
Only Period 10
11 375 11 375 0 Rp - Rp -
12 311 11,12 686 1 Rp 5.598.000 Rp 5.598.000
13 360 11,12,13 1046 2 Rp 12.960.000 Rp 18.558.000
Only Period 11
12 311 12 311 0 Rp - Rp -
13 360 12,13 671 1 Rp 6.480.000 Rp 6.480.000
14 360 12,13,14 1031 2 Rp 12.960.000 Rp 19.440.000
4.76
13 360 13 360 0 Rp - Rp -
14 360 13,14 720 1 Rp 6.480.000 Rp 6.480.000
15 360 13,14,15 1080 2 Rp 12.960.000 Rp 19.440.000
14 360 14 360 0 Rp - Rp -
15 360 14,15 720 1 Rp 6.480.000 Rp 6.480.000
16 240 14,15,16 960 2 Rp 8.640.000 Rp 15.120.000
15 360 15 360 0 Rp - Rp -
16 240 15,16 600 1 Rp 4.320.000 Rp 4.320.000
17 250 15,16,17 850 2 Rp 9.000.000 Rp 13.320.000
16 240 16 240 0 Rp - Rp -
17 250 16,17 490 1 Rp 4.500.000 Rp 4.500.000
18 375 16,17,18 865 2 Rp 13.500.000 Rp 18.000.000
17 250 17 250 0 Rp - Rp -
18 375 17,18 625 1 Rp 6.750.000 Rp 6.750.000
19 375 17,18,19 1000 2 Rp 13.500.000 Rp 20.250.000
18 375 18 375 0 Rp - Rp -
19 375 18,19 750 1 Rp 6.750.000 Rp 6.750.000
20 375 18,19,20 1125 2 Rp 13.500.000 Rp 20.250.000
19 375 19 375 0 Rp - Rp -
20 375 19,20 750 1 Rp 6.750.000 Rp 6.750.000
21 430 19,20,21 1180 2 Rp 15.480.000 Rp 22.230.000
20 375 20 375 0 Rp - Rp -
21 430 20,21 805 1 Rp 7.740.000 Rp 7.740.000
22 437 20,21,22 1242 2 Rp 15.732.000 Rp 23.472.000
21 430 21 430 0 Rp - Rp -
22 437 21,22 867 1 Rp 7.866.000 Rp 7.866.000
23 364 21,22,23 1231 2 Rp 13.104.000 Rp 20.970.000
22 437 22 437 0 Rp - Rp -
23 364 22,23 801 1 Rp 6.552.000 Rp 6.552.000
24 437 22,23,24 1238 2 Rp 15.732.000 Rp 22.284.000
4.77
23 364 23 364 0 Rp - Rp -
24 437 23,24 801 1 Rp 7.866.000 Rp 7.866.000
25 218 23,24,25 1019 2 Rp 7.848.000 Rp 15.714.000
24 437 24 437 0 Rp - Rp -
25 218 24,25 655 1 Rp 3.924.000 Rp 3.924.000
4.78
Table 4.54. LUC Product C
Period (Week) -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Lot Sizing 307 323 270 323 360 360 360 360 371 375 375
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 26
375 311 360 360 360 240 250 375 375 375 430 437 364 437 218 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
375 311 360 360 360 240 250 375 375 375 430 437 364 437 218 0 0
375 311 360 360 360 240 250 375 375 375 430 437 364 437 218 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
311 360 360 360 240 250 375 375 375 430 437 364 437 218 0 0 0

Holding Cost 0 Rp -
4.79
 Item D
𝐻 = ×𝐻 ×𝐻
𝐻 = × × =

ments Cost
ned Net Req)
-1 1842 -1 1842 0 Rp Rp
- -
0 1938 -1,0 3780 1 Rp Rp
34.884.000 34.884.000
1 1620 -1,0,1 5400 2 Rp Rp
58.320.000 93.204.000
0 1938 0 1938 0 Rp Rp
- -
1 1620 0,1 3558 1 Rp Rp
29.160.000 29.160.000
2 1938 0,1,2 5496 2 Rp Rp
69.768.000 98.928.000
Combine
only period 0
1 1620 1 1620 0 Rp Rp
- -
2 1938 1,2 3558 1 Rp Rp
34.884.000 34.884.000
3 2160 1,2,3 5718 2 Rp Rp
77.760.000 112.644.00
0
4.80
2 1938 2 1938 0 Rp - Rp -
3 2160 2,3 4098 1 Rp 38.880.000 Rp 38.880.000
4 2160 2,3,4 6258 2 Rp 77.760.000 Rp 116.640.000
Only period 2
3 2160 3 2160 0 Rp - Rp -
4 2160 3,4 4320 1 Rp 38.880.000 Rp 38.880.000
5 2160 3,4,5 6480 2 Rp 77.760.000 Rp 116.640.000
Only period 3
4 2160 4 2160 0 Rp - Rp -
5 2160 4,5 4320 1 Rp 38.880.000 Rp 38.880.000
6 2160 4,5,6 6480 2 Rp 77.760.000 Rp 116.640.000
Only period 4
5 2160 5 2160 0 Rp - Rp -
6 2160 5,6 4320 1 Rp 38.880.000 Rp 38.880.000
7 2226 5,6,7 6546 2 Rp 80.136.000 Rp 119.016.000
Only Period 5
6 2160 6 2160 0 Rp - Rp -
7 2226 6,7 4386 1 Rp 40.068.000 Rp 40.068.000
8 2250 6,7,8 6636 2 Rp 81.000.000 Rp 121.068.000
Only Period 6
7 2226 7 2226 0 Rp - Rp -
8 2250 7,8 4476 1 Rp 40.500.000 Rp 40.500.000
9 2250 7,8,9 6726 2 Rp 81.000.000 Rp 121.500.000
Only Period 7
4.81
8 225 8 225 0 Rp Rp
0 0 - -
9 225 8,9 450 1 Rp 40.500.000 Rp 40.500.000
0 0
10 225 8,9,10 675 2 Rp 81.000.000 Rp 121.500.000
0 0
Only Period
8
9 225 9 225 0 Rp Rp
0 0 - -
10 225 9,1 450 1 Rp 40.500.000 Rp 40.500.000
0 0
11 186 9,10,11 636 2 Rp 67.176.000 Rp 107.676.000
6 6
Only Period 9
10 225 10 225 0 Rp Rp
0 0 - -
11 186 10,11 411 1 Rp 33.588.000 Rp 33.588.000
6 6
12 216 10,11,1 627 2 Rp 77.760.000 Rp 111.348.000
0 2 6
Only Period 10
11 186 11 186 0 Rp Rp
6 6 - -
12 216 11,12 402 1 Rp 38.880.000 Rp 38.880.000
0 6
13 216 11,12,1 618 2 Rp 77.760.000 Rp 116.640.000
0 3 6
Only Period 11
12 216 12 216 0 Rp Rp
0 0 - -
13 216 12,13 432 1 Rp 38.880.000 Rp 38.880.000
0 0
14 216 12,13,1 648 2 Rp 77.760.000 Rp 116.640.000
0 4 0
Only Period 12
4.82
13 2160 13 2160 0 Rp - Rp -
14 2160 13,14 4320 1 Rp 38.880.000 Rp 38.880.000
15 1440 13,14,15 5760 2 Rp 51.840.000 Rp 90.720.000
14 2160 14 2160 0 Rp - Rp -
15 1440 14,15 3600 1 Rp 25.920.000 Rp 25.920.000
16 1500 14,15,16 5100 2 Rp 54.000.000 Rp 79.920.000
15 1440 15 1440 0 Rp - Rp -
16 1500 15,16 2940 1 Rp 27.000.000 Rp 27.000.000
17 2250 15,16,17 5190 2 Rp 81.000.000 Rp 108.000.000
16 1500 16 1500 0 Rp - Rp -
17 2250 16,17 3750 1 Rp 40.500.000 Rp 40.500.000
18 2250 16,17,18 6000 2 Rp 81.000.000 Rp 121.500.000
17 2250 17 2250 0 Rp - Rp -
18 2250 17,18 4500 1 Rp 40.500.000 Rp 40.500.000
19 2250 17,18,19 6750 2 Rp 81.000.000 Rp 121.500.000
18 2250 18 2250 0 Rp - Rp -
19 2250 18,19 4500 1 Rp 40.500.000 Rp 40.500.000
20 2580 18,19,20 7080 2 Rp 92.880.000 Rp 133.380.000
19 2250 19 2250 0 Rp - Rp -
20 2580 19,20 4830 1 Rp 46.440.000 Rp 46.440.000
21 2622 19,20,21 7452 2 Rp 94.392.000 Rp 140.832.000
20 2580 20 2580 0 Rp - Rp -
21 2622 20,21 5202 1 Rp 47.196.000 Rp 47.196.000
22 2184 20,21,22 7386 2 Rp 78.624.000 Rp 125.820.000
21 2622 21 2622 0 Rp - Rp -
22 2184 21,22 4806 1 Rp 39.312.000 Rp 39.312.000
23 2622 21,22,23 7428 2 Rp 94.392.000 Rp 133.704.000
22 2184 22 2184 0 Rp - Rp -
23 2622 22,23 4806 1 Rp 47.196.000 Rp 47.196.000
24 1308 22,23,24 6114 2 Rp 47.088.000 Rp 94.284.000
4.83
23 2622 23 2622 0 Rp - Rp -
24 1308 23,24 3930 1 Rp 23.544.000 Rp 23.544.000
4.84
Table 4.57. LUC Product D
Period (Week) -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Lot Sizing 1842 1938 1620 1938 2160 2160 2160 2160 2226 2250 2250 2250
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 26
1866 2160 2160 2160 1440 1500 2250 2250 2250 2580 2622 2184 2622 1308 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1866 2160 2160 2160 1440 1500 2250 2250 2250 2580 2622 2184 2622 1308 0 0 0
1866 2160 2160 2160 1440 1500 2250 2250 2250 2580 2622 2184 2622 1308 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2160 2160 2160 1440 1500 2250 2250 2250 2580 2622 2184 2622 1308 0 0 0 0

Holding Cost 0 0
4.85
 Item E
𝐻 = ×𝐻 ×𝐻
𝐻 = × × =
Peri Net Trial Trial Lot Periods Holding Cost Cum.

od Require periods Size Carried Holding Cost
ments Combin (Cum. Net (IDR) (IDR)
ed Req)
-2 7368 -2 7368 0 Rp Rp
- -
-1 8980 -2,-1 16348 1 Rp Rp
161.640.000 161.640.000
0 7772 -2,-1,0 24120 2 Rp Rp
279.792.000 441.432.000
-1 8980 -1 8980 0 Rp Rp
- -
0 7772 -1,0 16752 1 Rp Rp
139.896.000 139.896.000
1 8832 -1,0,1 25584 2 Rp Rp
317.952.000 457.848.000
0 7772 0 7772 0 Rp Rp
- -
1 8832 0,1 16604 1 Rp Rp
158.976.000 158.976.000
2 9932 0,1,2 26536 2 Rp Rp
357.552.000 516.528.000
4.86
1 8832 1 8832 0 Rp - Rp -
2 9932 1,2 18764 1 Rp 178.776.000 Rp 178.776.000
3 10080 1,2,3 28844 2 Rp 362.880.000 Rp 541.656.000
2 9932 2 9932 0 Rp - Rp -
3 10080 2,3 20012 1 Rp 181.440.000 Rp 181.440.000
4 10080 2,3,4 30092 2 Rp 362.880.000 Rp 544.320.000
Only period 2
3 10080 3 10080 0 Rp - Rp -
4 10080 3,4 20160 1 Rp 181.440.000 Rp 181.440.000
5 10080 3,4,5 30240 2 Rp 362.880.000 Rp 544.320.000
Only period 3
4 10080 4 10080 0 Rp - Rp -
5 10080 4,5 20160 1 Rp 181.440.000 Rp 181.440.000
6 10344 4,5,6 30504 2 Rp 372.384.000 Rp 553.824.000
Only period 4
5 10080 5 10080 0 Rp - Rp -
6 10344 5,6 20424 1 Rp 186.192.000 Rp 186.192.000
7 10484 5,6,7 30908 2 Rp 377.424.000 Rp 563.616.000
Only Period 5
6 10344 6 10344 0 Rp - Rp -
7 10484 6,7 20828 1 Rp 188.712.000 Rp 188.712.000
8 10500 6,7,8 31328 2 Rp 378.000.000 Rp 566.712.000
Only Period 6
4.87
7 1048 7 1048 0 Rp Rp
4 4 - -
8 1050 7,8 2098 1 Rp Rp
0 4 189.000.000 189.000.000
9 1050 7,8,9 3148 2 Rp Rp
0 4 378.000.000 567.000.000
Only Period 7
8 1050 8 1050 0 Rp Rp
0 0 - -
9 1050 8,9 2100 1 Rp Rp
0 0 189.000.000 189.000.000
10 8964 8,9,10 2996 2 Rp Rp
4 322.704.000 511.704.000
Only Period
8
9 1050 9 1050 0 Rp Rp
0 0 - -
10 8964 9,1 1946 1 Rp Rp
4 161.352.000 161.352.000
11 9884 9,10,11 2934 2 Rp Rp
8 355.824.000 517.176.000
Only Period 9
10 8964 10 8964 0 Rp Rp
- -
11 9884 10,11 1884 1 Rp Rp
8 177.912.000 177.912.000
12 1008 10,11,1 2892 2 Rp Rp
0 2 8 362.880.000 540.792.000
Only Period 10
11 9884 11 9884 0 Rp Rp
- -
12 1008 11,12 1996 1 Rp Rp
0 4 181.440.000 181.440.000
13 1008 11,12,1 3004 2 Rp Rp
0 3 4 362.880.000 544.320.000
Only Period 11
12 1008 12 1008 0 Rp Rp
0 0 - -
13 1008 12,13 2016 1 Rp Rp
0 0 181.440.000 181.440.000
14 7200 12,13,1 2736 2 Rp Rp
4 0 259.200.000 440.640.000
Only Period 12
4.88
13 10080 13 10080 0 Rp - Rp -
14 7200 13,14 17280 1 Rp 129.600.000 Rp 129.600.000
15 6960 13,14,15 24240 2 Rp 250.560.000 Rp 380.160.000
14 7200 14 7200 0 Rp - Rp -
15 6960 14,15 14160 1 Rp 125.280.000 Rp 125.280.000
16 10000 14,15,16 24160 2 Rp 360.000.000 Rp 485.280.000
15 6960 15 6960 0 Rp - Rp -
16 10000 15,16 16960 1 Rp 180.000.000 Rp 180.000.000
17 10500 15,16,17 27460 2 Rp 378.000.000 Rp 558.000.000
16 10000 16 10000 0 Rp - Rp -
17 10500 16,17 20500 1 Rp 189.000.000 Rp 189.000.000
18 10500 16,17,18 31000 2 Rp 378.000.000 Rp 567.000.000
17 10500 17 10500 0 Rp - Rp -
18 10500 17,18 21000 1 Rp 189.000.000 Rp 189.000.000
19 11820 17,18,19 32820 2 Rp 425.520.000 Rp 614.520.000
18 10500 18 10500 0 Rp - Rp -
19 11820 18,19 22320 1 Rp 212.760.000 Rp 212.760.000
20 12208 18,19,20 34528 2 Rp 439.488.000 Rp 652.248.000
19 11820 19 11820 0 Rp - Rp -
20 12208 19,20 24028 1 Rp 219.744.000 Rp 219.744.000
21 10484 19,20,21 34512 2 Rp 377.424.000 Rp 597.168.000
20 12208 20 12208 0 Rp - Rp -
21 10484 20,21 22692 1 Rp 188.712.000 Rp 188.712.000
22 11944 20,21,22 34636 2 Rp 429.984.000 Rp 618.696.000
21 10484 21 10484 0 Rp - Rp -
22 11944 21,22 22428 1 Rp 214.992.000 Rp 214.992.000
23 6980 21,22,23 29408 2 Rp 251.280.000 Rp 466.272.000
22 11944 22 11944 0 Rp - Rp -
23 6980 22,23 18924 1 Rp 125.640.000 Rp 125.640.000
24 872 22,23,24 19796 2 Rp 31.392.000 Rp 157.032.000
4.89
23 6980 23 6980 0 Rp - Rp -
24 872 23,24 7852 1 Rp 15.696.000 Rp 15.696.000
4.90
Table 4.57. LUC Product E
Period (Week) -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Lot Sizing 7368 8980 7772 8832 9932 10080 10080 10080 10344 10484 10500 10500 8964
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 26
9884 10080 10080 7200 6960 10000 10500 10500 11820 12208 10484 11944 6980 872 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
9884 10080 10080 7200 6960 10000 10500 10500 11820 12208 10484 11944 6980 872 0 0 0
9884 10080 10080 7200 6960 10000 10500 10500 11820 12208 10484 11944 6980 872 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
10080 10080 7200 6960 10000 10500 10500 11820 12208 10484 11944 6980 872 0 0 0 0

Holding Cost 0 Rp -
4.91
 Item F
𝐻 = ×𝐻 ×𝐻
𝐻 = × × =

ments Cost
ned Net Req)
-1 614 -1 614 0 Rp Rp
- -
0 646 -1,0 1260 1 Rp Rp
11.628.000 11.628.000
1 540 -1,0,1 1800 2 Rp Rp
19.440.000 31.068.000
0 646 0 646 0 Rp Rp
- -
1 540 0,1 1186 1 Rp Rp
9.720.000 9.720.000
2 646 0,1,2 1832 2 Rp Rp
23.256.000 32.976.000
Combine
only period 0
1 540 1 540 0 Rp Rp
- -
2 646 1,2 1186 1 Rp Rp
11.628.000 11.628.000
3 720 1,2,3 1906 2 Rp Rp
25.920.000 37.548.000
4.92
2 646 2 646 0 Rp - Rp -
3 720 2,3 1366 1 Rp 12.960.000 Rp 12.960.000
4 720 2,3,4 2086 2 Rp 25.920.000 Rp 38.880.000
Only period 2
3 720 3 720 0 Rp - Rp -
4 720 3,4 1440 1 Rp 12.960.000 Rp 12.960.000
5 720 3,4,5 2160 2 Rp 25.920.000 Rp 38.880.000
Only period 3
4 720 4 720 0 Rp - Rp -
5 720 4,5 1440 1 Rp 12.960.000 Rp 12.960.000
6 720 4,5,6 2160 2 Rp 25.920.000 Rp 38.880.000
Only period 4
5 720 5 720 0 Rp - Rp -
6 720 5,6 1440 1 Rp 12.960.000 Rp 12.960.000
7 742 5,6,7 2182 2 Rp 26.712.000 Rp 39.672.000
Only Period 5
6 720 6 720 0 Rp - Rp -
7 742 6,7 1462 1 Rp 13.356.000 Rp 13.356.000
8 750 6,7,8 2212 2 Rp 27.000.000 Rp 40.356.000
Only Period 6
7 742 7 742 0 Rp - Rp -
8 750 7,8 1492 1 Rp 13.500.000 Rp 13.500.000
9 750 7,8,9 2242 2 Rp 27.000.000 Rp 40.500.000
Only Period 7
4.93
8 750 8 750 0 Rp - Rp -
9 750 8,9 1500 1 Rp 13.500.000 Rp 13.500.000
10 750 8,9,10 2250 2 Rp 27.000.000 Rp 40.500.000
Only Period 8
9 750 9 750 0 Rp - Rp -
10 750 9,1 1500 1 Rp 13.500.000 Rp 13.500.000
11 622 9,10,11 2122 2 Rp 22.392.000 Rp 35.892.000
Only Period 9
10 750 10 750 0 Rp - Rp -
11 622 10,11 1372 1 Rp 11.196.000 Rp 11.196.000
12 720 10,11,12 2092 2 Rp 25.920.000 Rp 37.116.000
Only Period 10
11 622 11 622 0 Rp - Rp -
12 720 11,12 1342 1 Rp 12.960.000 Rp 12.960.000
13 720 11,12,13 2062 2 Rp 25.920.000 Rp 38.880.000
Only Period 11
12 720 12 720 0 Rp - Rp -
13 720 12,13 1440 1 Rp 12.960.000 Rp 12.960.000
14 720 12,13,14 2160 2 Rp 25.920.000 Rp 38.880.000
Only Period 12
4.94
13 720 13 720 0 Rp - Rp -
14 720 13,14 1440 1 Rp 12.960.000 Rp 12.960.000
15 480 13,14,15 1920 2 Rp 17.280.000 Rp 30.240.000
14 720 14 720 0 Rp - Rp -
15 480 14,15 1200 1 Rp 8.640.000 Rp 8.640.000
16 500 14,15,16 1700 2 Rp 18.000.000 Rp 26.640.000
15 480 15 480 0 Rp - Rp -
16 500 15,16 980 1 Rp 9.000.000 Rp 9.000.000
17 750 15,16,17 1730 2 Rp 27.000.000 Rp 36.000.000
16 500 16 500 0 Rp - Rp -
17 750 16,17 1250 1 Rp 13.500.000 Rp 13.500.000
18 750 16,17,18 2000 2 Rp 27.000.000 Rp 40.500.000
17 750 17 750 0 Rp - Rp -
18 750 17,18 1500 1 Rp 13.500.000 Rp 13.500.000
19 750 17,18,19 2250 2 Rp 27.000.000 Rp 40.500.000
18 750 18 750 0 Rp - Rp -
19 750 18,19 1500 1 Rp 13.500.000 Rp 13.500.000
20 860 18,19,20 2360 2 Rp 30.960.000 Rp 44.460.000
19 750 19 750 0 Rp - Rp -
20 860 19,20 1610 1 Rp 15.480.000 Rp 15.480.000
21 874 19,20,21 2484 2 Rp 31.464.000 Rp 46.944.000
20 860 20 860 0 Rp - Rp -
21 874 20,21 1734 1 Rp 15.732.000 Rp 15.732.000
22 728 20,21,22 2462 2 Rp 26.208.000 Rp 41.940.000
21 874 21 874 0 Rp - Rp -
22 728 21,22 1602 1 Rp 13.104.000 Rp 13.104.000
23 874 21,22,23 2476 2 Rp 31.464.000 Rp 44.568.000
22 728 22 728 0 Rp - Rp -
23 874 22,23 1602 1 Rp 15.732.000 Rp 15.732.000
24 436 22,23,24 2038 2 Rp 15.696.000 Rp 31.428.000
4.95
23 874 23 874 0 Rp - Rp -
24 436 23,24 1310 1 Rp 7.848.000 Rp 7.848.000
4.96
Table 4.60. LUC Product F
Period (Week) -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Lot Sizing 614 646 540 646 720 720 720 720 742 750 750 750
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 26
622 720 720 720 480 500 750 750 750 860 874 728 874 436 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
622 720 720 720 480 500 750 750 750 860 874 728 874 436 0 0 0
622 720 720 720 480 500 750 750 750 860 874 728 874 436 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
720 720 720 480 500 750 750 750 860 874 728 874 436 0 0 0 0

Holding Cost 0 Rp -
4.97
4.5. Silver Meal
Silver meal approach focuses on lot size that should be able to minimize the total
cost (holding and ordering cost) per period. The lot-for-lot conducted in each items,
such as belows. All of items are assumed, has same lead time equal with 1 week,
no safety stock, ordering cost per week is Rp 3.000.000 and holding cost is Rp
18.000/unit/month.
cost by using Silver Meal is Rp 472.800.000.
PART COST
X Rp 79.800.000
B Rp 78.000.000
C Rp 78.000.000
D Rp 78.000.000
E Rp 81.000.000
F Rp 78.000.000
PART
 Product X
= + ×𝐻 ×𝐻
=
#
4.98
For example, 1st period, so the calculation of cummulative cost and cost per period
as belows.
= + × × =
= =
If the value of cost/period increased, so cut the period and starting new calculation
Table 4.63. Silver Meal Method
Perio Net Trial Trial Lot Size Cummulative Cost per Period
d Requireme periods Cost
nts Combined (Cum. Net (IDR) (IDR)
Req)
1 307 1 307 Rp Rp
3.000.000 3.000.000
2 323 1,2 630 Rp Rp
8.814.000 4.407.000
3 270 1,2,3 900 Rp Rp
18.534.000 6.178.000
Combine only
period 1
2 323 2 323 Rp Rp
3.000.000 3.000.000
3 270 2,3 593 Rp Rp
7.860.000 3.930.000
4 323 2,3,4 916 Rp Rp
19.488.000 6.496.000
Only period 2
3 270 3 270 Rp Rp
3.000.000 3.000.000
4 323 3,4 593 Rp Rp
8.814.000 4.407.000
5 360 3,4,5 953 Rp Rp
21.774.000 7.258.000
Only period 3
4 323 4 323Rp Rp
3.000.000 3.000.000
5 360 4,5 683 Rp Rp
9.480.000 4.740.000
6 360 4,5,6 1043 Rp Rp
22.440.000 7.480.000
4.99
Table 4.63. Silver Meal Method (continued)
5 360 5 360 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

6 360 5,6 720 Rp 9.480.000 Rp 4.740.000
7 360 5,6,7 1080 Rp 22.440.000 Rp 7.480.000
Only Period 5
6 360 6 360 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000
7 360 6,7 720 Rp 9.480.000 Rp 4.740.000
8 360 6,7,8 1080 Rp 22.440.000 Rp 7.480.000
Only Period 6
7 360 7 360 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000
8 360 7,8 720 Rp 9.480.000 Rp 4.740.000
9 371 7,8,9 1091 Rp 22.836.000 Rp 7.612.000
Only Period 7
8 360 8 360 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000
9 371 8,9 731 Rp 9.678.000 Rp 4.839.000
10 375 8,9,10 1106 Rp 23.178.000 Rp 7.726.000
Only Period 8
9 371 9 371 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000
10 375 9,1 746 Rp 9.750.000 Rp 4.875.000
11 375 9,10,11 1121 Rp 23.250.000 Rp 7.750.000
Only Period 9
10 375 10 375 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000
11 375 10,11 750 Rp 9.750.000 Rp 4.875.000
12 375 10,11,12 1125 Rp 23.250.000 Rp 7.750.000
Only Period 10
11 375 11 375 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000
12 375 11,12 750 Rp 9.750.000 Rp 4.875.000
13 311 11,12,13 1061 Rp 20.946.000 Rp 6.982.000
Only Period 11
12 375 12 375 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000
13 311 12,13 686 Rp 8.598.000 Rp 4.299.000
14 360 12,13,14 1046 Rp 21.558.000 Rp 7.186.000
Only Period 12
13 311 13 311 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000
14 360 13,14 671 Rp 9.480.000 Rp 4.740.000
15 360 13,14,15 1031 Rp 22.440.000 Rp 7.480.000
Only Period 13
4.100
14 360 14 360 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

15 360 14,15 720 Rp 9.480.000 Rp 4.740.000
16 360 14,15,16 1080 Rp 22.440.000 Rp 7.480.000
15 360 15 360 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

16 360 15,16 720 Rp 9.480.000 Rp 4.740.000
17 240 15,16,17 960 Rp 18.120.000 Rp 6.040.000
16 360 16 360 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

17 240 16,17 600 Rp 7.320.000 Rp 3.660.000
18 250 16,17,18 850 Rp 16.320.000 Rp 5.440.000
17 240 17 240 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

18 250 17,18 490 Rp 7.500.000 Rp 3.750.000
19 375 17,18,19 865 Rp 21.000.000 Rp 7.000.000
18 250 18 250 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

19 375 18,19 625 Rp 9.750.000 Rp 4.875.000
20 375 18,19,20 1000 Rp 23.250.000 Rp 7.750.000
19 375 19 375 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

20 375 19,20 750 Rp 9.750.000 Rp 4.875.000
21 375 19,20,21 1125 Rp 23.250.000 Rp 7.750.000
20 375 20 375 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

21 375 20,21 750 Rp 9.750.000 Rp 4.875.000
22 430 20,21,22 1180 Rp 25.230.000 Rp 8.410.000
21 375 21 375 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

22 430 21,22 805 Rp 10.740.000 Rp 5.370.000
23 437 21,22,23 1242 Rp 26.472.000 Rp 8.824.000
22 430 22 430 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

23 437 22,23 867 Rp 10.866.000 Rp 5.433.000
24 364 22,23,24 1231 Rp 23.970.000 Rp 7.990.000
23 437 23 437 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

24 364 23,24 801 Rp 9.552.000 Rp 4.776.000
25 437 23,24,25 1238 Rp 25.284.000 Rp 8.428.000
4.101
24 364 24 364 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

25 437 24,25 801 Rp 10.866.000 Rp 5.433.000
26 218 24,25,26 1019 Rp 18.714.000 Rp 6.238.000
25 437 25 437 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

26 218 25,26 655 Rp 6.924.000 Rp 3.462.000
4.102
Table 4.64. Silver Meal Product X
Period (Week) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Schedule Receipt
Lot Sizing 307 323 270 323 360 360 360 360 371 375
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
375 375 311 360 360 360 240 250 375 375 375 430 437 364 437 218
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
375 375 311 360 360 360 240 250 375 375 375 430 437 364 437 218
375 375 311 360 360 360 240 250 375 375 375 430 437 364 437 218
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100
375 311 360 360 360 240 250 375 375 375 430 437 364 437 218 0

4.103
 Item B
= + ×𝐻 ×𝐻
=
#
as belows.
= + × × =
= =
Trial Trial Lot Cummulative

Net Cost per unit
periods Size Cost
Period Requirem
Combine (Cum. Net
ents (IDR) (IDR)
d Req)
Rp Rp
0 614 0 614
3.000.000 3.000.000
Rp Rp
1 646 0,1 1260
14.628.000 7.314.000
Rp Rp
2 540 0,1,2 1800
34.068.000 11.356.000
Combine only
period 0
Rp Rp
1 646 1 646
3.000.000 3.000.000
Rp Rp
2 540 1,2 1186
12.720.000 6.360.000
Rp Rp
3 646 1,2,3 1832
35.976.000 11.992.000
4.104
2 540 2 540 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

3 646 2,3 1186 Rp 14.628.000 Rp 7.314.000
4 720 2,3,4 1906 Rp 40.548.000 Rp 13.516.000
Only period 2
3 646 3 646 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000
4 720 3,4 1366 Rp 15.960.000 Rp 7.980.000
5 720 3,4,5 2086 Rp 41.880.000 Rp 13.960.000
Only period 3
4 720 4 720 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000
5 720 4,5 1440 Rp 15.960.000 Rp 7.980.000
6 720 4,5,6 2160 Rp 41.880.000 Rp 13.960.000
Only period 4
5 720 5 720 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000
6 720 5,6 1440 Rp 15.960.000 Rp 7.980.000
7 720 5,6,7 2160 Rp 41.880.000 Rp 13.960.000
Only Period 5
6 720 6 720 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000
7 720 6,7 1440 Rp 15.960.000 Rp 7.980.000
8 742 6,7,8 2182 Rp 42.672.000 Rp 14.224.000
Only Period 6
7 720 7 720 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000
8 742 7,8 1462 Rp 16.356.000 Rp 8.178.000
9 750 7,8,9 2212 Rp 43.356.000 Rp 14.452.000
Only Period 7
8 742 8 742 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000
9 750 8,9 1492 Rp 16.500.000 Rp 8.250.000
10 750 8,9,10 2242 Rp 43.500.000 Rp 14.500.000
Only Period 8
9 750 9 750 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000
10 750 9,1 1500 Rp 16.500.000 Rp 8.250.000
11 750 9,10,11 2250 Rp 43.500.000 Rp 14.500.000
Only Period 9
10 750 10 750 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000
11 750 10,11 1500 Rp 16.500.000 Rp 8.250.000
12 622 10,11,12 2122 Rp 38.892.000 Rp 12.964.000
Only Period 10
4.105
11 750 11 750 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

12 622 11,12 1372 Rp 14.196.000 Rp 7.098.000
13 720 11,12,13 2092 Rp 40.116.000 Rp 13.372.000
Only Period 11
12 622 12 622 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000
13 720 12,13 1342 Rp 15.960.000 Rp 7.980.000
14 720 12,13,14 2062 Rp 41.880.000 Rp 13.960.000
Only Period 12
13 720 13 720 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000
14 720 13,14 1440 Rp 15.960.000 Rp 7.980.000
15 720 13,14,15 2160 Rp 41.880.000 Rp 13.960.000
Only Period 13
14 720 14 720 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000
15 720 14,15 1440 Rp 15.960.000 Rp 7.980.000
16 480 14,15,16 1920 Rp 33.240.000 Rp 11.080.000
15 720 15 720 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

16 480 15,16 1200 Rp 11.640.000 Rp 5.820.000
17 500 15,16,17 1700 Rp 29.640.000 Rp 9.880.000
16 480 16 480 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

17 500 16,17 980 Rp 12.000.000 Rp 6.000.000
18 750 16,17,18 1730 Rp 39.000.000 Rp 13.000.000
17 500 17 500 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

18 750 17,18 1250 Rp 16.500.000 Rp 8.250.000
19 750 17,18,19 2000 Rp 43.500.000 Rp 14.500.000
18 750 18 750 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

19 750 18,19 1500 Rp 16.500.000 Rp 8.250.000
20 750 18,19,20 2250 Rp 43.500.000 Rp 14.500.000
19 750 19 750 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

20 750 19,20 1500 Rp 16.500.000 Rp 8.250.000
21 860 19,20,21 2360 Rp 47.460.000 Rp 15.820.000
20 750 20 750 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

21 860 20,21 1610 Rp 18.480.000 Rp 9.240.000
22 874 20,21,22 2484 Rp 49.944.000 Rp 16.648.000
4.106
21 860 21 860 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

22 874 21,22 1734 Rp 18.732.000 Rp 9.366.000
23 728 21,22,23 2462 Rp 44.940.000 Rp 14.980.000
22 874 22 874 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

23 728 22,23 1602 Rp 16.104.000 Rp 8.052.000
24 874 22,23,24 2476 Rp 47.568.000 Rp 15.856.000
23 728 23 728 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

24 874 23,24 1602 Rp 18.732.000 Rp 9.366.000
25 436 23,24,25 2038 Rp 34.428.000 Rp 11.476.000
24 874 24 874 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

25 436 24,25 1310 Rp 10.848.000 Rp 5.424.000
4.107
Table 4.64. Silver Meal Product B
Period (Week) -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Lot Sizing 614 646 540 646 720 720 720 720 742 750 750
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
750 622 720 720 720 480 500 750 750 750 860 874 728 874 436 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
750 622 720 720 720 480 500 750 750 750 860 874 728 874 436 0
750 622 720 720 720 480 500 750 750 750 860 874 728 874 436 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
622 720 720 720 480 500 750 750 750 860 874 728 874 436 0 0

Holding Cost 0 Rp -
4.108
 Item C
= + ×𝐻 ×𝐻
=
#
as belows.
= + × × =
= =
Period Net Trial Trial Lot Cummulative Cost per unit

Requirem periods Size Cost
d Req)
0 307 0 307 Rp Rp
3.000.000 3.000.000
1 323 0,1 630 Rp Rp
8.814.000 4.407.000
2 270 0,1,2 900 Rp Rp
18.534.000 6.178.000
Combine only
period 0
1 323 1 323 Rp Rp
3.000.000 3.000.000
2 270 1,2 593 Rp Rp
7.860.000 3.930.000
3 323 1,2,3 916 Rp Rp
19.488.000 6.496.000
4.109
2 270 2 270 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

3 323 2,3 593 Rp 8.814.000 Rp 4.407.000
4 360 2,3,4 953 Rp 21.774.000 Rp 7.258.000
Only period 2
3 323 3 323 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000
4 360 3,4 683 Rp 9.480.000 Rp 4.740.000
5 360 3,4,5 1043 Rp 22.440.000 Rp 7.480.000
Only period 3
4 360 4 360 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000
5 360 4,5 720 Rp 9.480.000 Rp 4.740.000
6 360 4,5,6 1080 Rp 22.440.000 Rp 7.480.000
Only period 4
5 360 5 360 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000
6 360 5,6 720 Rp 9.480.000 Rp 4.740.000
7 360 5,6,7 1080 Rp 22.440.000 Rp 7.480.000
Only Period 5
6 360 6 360 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000
7 360 6,7 720 Rp 9.480.000 Rp 4.740.000
8 371 6,7,8 1091 Rp 22.836.000 Rp 7.612.000
Only Period 6
7 360 7 360 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000
8 371 7,8 731 Rp 9.678.000 Rp 4.839.000
9 375 7,8,9 1106 Rp 23.178.000 Rp 7.726.000
Only Period 7
8 371 8 371 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000
9 375 8,9 746 Rp 9.750.000 Rp 4.875.000
10 375 8,9,10 1121 Rp 23.250.000 Rp 7.750.000
Only Period 8
9 375 9 375 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000
10 375 9,1 750 Rp 9.750.000 Rp 4.875.000
11 375 9,10,11 1125 Rp 23.250.000 Rp 7.750.000
Only Period 9
10 375 10 375 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000
11 375 10,11 750 Rp 9.750.000 Rp 4.875.000
12 311 10,11,12 1061 Rp 20.946.000 Rp 6.982.000
4.110
13 360 13 360 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000
14 360 13,14 720 Rp 9.480.000 Rp 4.740.000
15 360 13,14,15 1080 Rp 22.440.000 Rp 7.480.000
14 360 14 360 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

15 360 14,15 720 Rp 9.480.000 Rp 4.740.000
16 240 14,15,16 960 Rp 18.120.000 Rp 6.040.000
15 360 15 360 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

16 240 15,16 600 Rp 7.320.000 Rp 3.660.000
17 250 15,16,17 850 Rp 16.320.000 Rp 5.440.000
16 240 16 240 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

17 250 16,17 490 Rp 7.500.000 Rp 3.750.000
18 375 16,17,18 865 Rp 21.000.000 Rp 7.000.000
17 250 17 250 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

18 375 17,18 625 Rp 9.750.000 Rp 4.875.000
19 375 17,18,19 1000 Rp 23.250.000 Rp 7.750.000
18 375 18 375 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

19 375 18,19 750 Rp 9.750.000 Rp 4.875.000
20 375 18,19,20 1125 Rp 23.250.000 Rp 7.750.000
19 375 19 375 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

20 375 19,20 750 Rp 9.750.000 Rp 4.875.000
21 430 19,20,21 1180 Rp 25.230.000 Rp 8.410.000
20 375 20 375 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

21 430 20,21 805 Rp 10.740.000 Rp 5.370.000
22 437 20,21,22 1242 Rp 26.472.000 Rp 8.824.000
21 430 21 430 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

22 437 21,22 867 Rp 10.866.000 Rp 5.433.000
23 364 21,22,23 1231 Rp 23.970.000 Rp 7.990.000
22 437 22 437 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

23 364 22,23 801 Rp 9.552.000 Rp 4.776.000
24 437 22,23,24 1238 Rp 25.284.000 Rp 8.428.000
4.111
23 364 23 364 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

24 437 23,24 801 Rp 10.866.000 Rp 5.433.000
25 218 23,24,25 1019 Rp 18.714.000 Rp 6.238.000
24 437 24 437 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

25 218 24,25 655 Rp 6.924.000 Rp 3.462.000
4.112
Table 4.67. Silver Meal Product C
Period (Week) -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Lot Sizing 614 646 540 646 720 720 720 720 742 750 750
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
750 622 720 720 720 480 500 750 750 750 860 874 728 874 436 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
750 622 720 720 720 480 500 750 750 750 860 874 728 874 436 0
750 622 720 720 720 480 500 750 750 750 860 874 728 874 436 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
622 720 720 720 480 500 750 750 750 860 874 728 874 436 0 0

Holding Cost 0 Rp -
4.113
 Item D
= + ×𝐻 ×𝐻
=
#
as belows.
= + × × =
= =
Perio Net Trial Trial Lot Cummulative Cost per unit

d Requireme periods Size Cost
Req)
-1 1842 -1 1842 Rp Rp
3.000.000 3.000.000
0 1938 -1,0 3780 Rp Rp
37.884.000 18.942.000
1 1620 -1,0,1 5400 Rp Rp
96.204.000 32.068.000
0 1938 0 1938 Rp Rp
3.000.000 3.000.000
1 1620 0,1 3558 Rp Rp
32.160.000 16.080.000
2 1938 0,1,2 5496 Rp Rp
101.928.000 33.976.000
4.114
1 1620 1 1620 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

2 1938 1,2 3558 Rp 37.884.000 Rp 18.942.000
3 2160 1,2,3 5718 Rp 115.644.000 Rp 38.548.000
2 1938 2 1938 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000
3 2160 2,3 4098 Rp 41.880.000 Rp 20.940.000
4 2160 2,3,4 6258 Rp 119.640.000 Rp 39.880.000
Only period 2
3 2160 3 2160 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000
4 2160 3,4 4320 Rp 41.880.000 Rp 20.940.000
5 2160 3,4,5 6480 Rp 119.640.000 Rp 39.880.000
Only period 3
4 2160 4 2160 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000
5 2160 4,5 4320 Rp 41.880.000 Rp 20.940.000
6 2160 4,5,6 6480 Rp 119.640.000 Rp 39.880.000
Only period 4
5 2160 5 2160 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000
6 2160 5,6 4320 Rp 41.880.000 Rp 20.940.000
7 2226 5,6,7 6546 Rp 122.016.000 Rp 40.672.000
Only Period 5
6 2160 6 2160 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000
7 2226 6,7 4386 Rp 43.068.000 Rp 21.534.000
8 2250 6,7,8 6636 Rp 124.068.000 Rp 41.356.000
Only Period 6
7 2226 7 2226 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000
8 2250 7,8 4476 Rp 43.500.000 Rp 21.750.000
9 2250 7,8,9 6726 Rp 124.500.000 Rp 41.500.000
Only Period 7
8 2250 8 2250 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000
9 2250 8,9 4500 Rp 43.500.000 Rp 21.750.000
10 2250 8,9,10 6750 Rp 124.500.000 Rp 41.500.000
Only Period 8
9 2250 9 2250 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000
10 2250 9,1 4500 Rp 43.500.000 Rp 21.750.000
11 1866 9,10,11 6366 Rp 110.676.000 Rp 36.892.000
4.115
10 2250 10 2250 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

11 1866 10,11 4116 Rp 36.588.000 Rp 18.294.000
12 2160 10,11,12 6276 Rp 114.348.000 Rp 38.116.000
Only Period 10
11 1866 11 1866 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000
12 2160 11,12 4026 Rp 41.880.000 Rp 20.940.000
13 2160 11,12,13 6186 Rp 119.640.000 Rp 39.880.000
Only Period 11
12 2160 12 2160 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000
13 2160 12,13 4320 Rp 41.880.000 Rp 20.940.000
14 2160 12,13,14 6480 Rp 119.640.000 Rp 39.880.000
Only Period 12
13 2160 13 2160 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000
14 2160 13,14 4320 Rp 41.880.000 Rp 20.940.000
15 1440 13,14,15 5760 Rp 93.720.000 Rp 31.240.000
14 2160 14 2160 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

15 1440 14,15 3600 Rp 28.920.000 Rp 14.460.000
16 1500 14,15,16 5100 Rp 82.920.000 Rp 27.640.000
15 1440 15 1440 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

16 1500 15,16 2940 Rp 30.000.000 Rp 15.000.000
17 2250 15,16,17 5190 Rp 111.000.000 Rp 37.000.000
16 1500 16 1500 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

17 2250 16,17 3750 Rp 43.500.000 Rp 21.750.000
18 2250 16,17,18 6000 Rp 124.500.000 Rp 41.500.000
17 2250 17 2250 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

18 2250 17,18 4500 Rp 43.500.000 Rp 21.750.000
19 2250 17,18,19 6750 Rp 124.500.000 Rp 41.500.000
18 2250 18 2250 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

19 2250 18,19 4500 Rp 43.500.000 Rp 21.750.000
20 2580 18,19,20 7080 Rp 136.380.000 Rp 45.460.000
19 2250 19 2250 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

20 2580 19,20 4830 Rp 49.440.000 Rp 24.720.000
21 2622 19,20,21 7452 Rp 143.832.000 Rp 47.944.000
4.116
20 2580 20 2580 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

21 2622 20,21 5202 Rp 50.196.000 Rp 25.098.000
22 2184 20,21,22 7386 Rp 128.820.000 Rp 42.940.000
21 2622 21 2622 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

22 2184 21,22 4806 Rp 42.312.000 Rp 21.156.000
23 2622 21,22,23 7428 Rp 136.704.000 Rp 45.568.000
22 2184 22 2184 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

23 2622 22,23 4806 Rp 50.196.000 Rp 25.098.000
24 1308 22,23,24 6114 Rp 97.284.000 Rp 32.428.000
23 2622 23 2622 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

24 1308 23,24 3930 Rp 26.544.000 Rp 13.272.000
4.117
Table 4.72. Silver Meal Product D
Period (Week) -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Lot Sizing 1842 1938 1620 1938 2160 2160 2160 2160 2226 2250 2250 2250
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
1866 2160 2160 2160 1440 1500 2250 2250 2250 2580 2622 2184 2622 1308 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1866 2160 2160 2160 1440 1500 2250 2250 2250 2580 2622 2184 2622 1308 0 0
1866 2160 2160 2160 1440 1500 2250 2250 2250 2580 2622 2184 2622 1308 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2160 2160 2160 1440 1500 2250 2250 2250 2580 2622 2184 2622 1308 0 0 0

Holding Cost 0 0
4.118
 Item E
= + ×𝐻 ×𝐻
=
#
as belows.
= + × × =
= =
Perio Net Trial Trial Lot Cummulative Cost per unit

d Requireme periods Size Cost
Req)
-2 7368 -2 7368 Rp Rp
3.000.000 3.000.000
-1 8980 -2,-1 16348 Rp Rp
164.640.000 82.320.000
0 7772 -2,-1,0 24120 Rp Rp
444.432.000 148.144.000
-1 8980 -1 8980Rp Rp
3.000.000 3.000.000
0 7772 -1,0 16752 Rp Rp
142.896.000 71.448.000
1 8832 -1,0,1 25584 Rp Rp
460.848.000 153.616.000
4.119
Rp Rp
0 7772 0 7772
3.000.000 3.000.000
Rp Rp
1 8832 0,1 16604
161.976.000 80.988.000
Rp Rp
2 9932 0,1,2 26536
519.528.000 173.176.000
Combine only period
0
Rp Rp
1 8832 1 8832
3.000.000 3.000.000
Rp Rp
2 9932 1,2 18764
181.776.000 90.888.000
1008 Rp Rp
3 1,2,3 28844
0 544.656.000 181.552.000
Rp Rp
2 9932 2 9932
3.000.000 3.000.000
1008 Rp Rp
3 2,3 20012
0 184.440.000 92.220.000
1008 Rp Rp
4 2,3,4 30092
0 547.320.000 182.440.000
Only period 2
1008 Rp Rp
3 3 10080
0 3.000.000 3.000.000
1008 Rp Rp
4 3,4 20160
0 184.440.000 92.220.000
1008 Rp Rp
5 3,4,5 30240
0 547.320.000 182.440.000
Only period 3
1008 Rp Rp
4 4 10080
0 3.000.000 3.000.000
1008 Rp Rp
5 4,5 20160
0 184.440.000 92.220.000
1034 Rp Rp
6 4,5,6 30504
4 556.824.000 185.608.000
Only period 4
1008 Rp Rp
5 5 10080
0 3.000.000 3.000.000
1034 Rp Rp
6 5,6 20424
4 189.192.000 94.596.000
1048 Rp Rp
7 5,6,7 30908
4 566.616.000 188.872.000
Only Period 5
4.120
6 10344 6 10344 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

7 10484 6,7 20828 Rp 191.712.000 Rp 95.856.000
8 10500 6,7,8 31328 Rp 569.712.000 Rp 189.904.000
Only Period 6
7 10484 7 10484 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000
8 10500 7,8 20984 Rp 192.000.000 Rp 96.000.000
9 10500 7,8,9 31484 Rp 570.000.000 Rp 190.000.000
Only Period 7
8 10500 8 10500 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000
9 10500 8,9 21000 Rp 192.000.000 Rp 96.000.000
10 8964 8,9,10 29964 Rp 514.704.000 Rp 171.568.000
Only Period 8
9 10500 9 10500 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000
10 8964 9,1 19464 Rp 164.352.000 Rp 82.176.000
11 9884 9,10,11 29348 Rp 520.176.000 Rp 173.392.000
Only Period 9
10 8964 10 8964 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000
11 9884 10,11 18848 Rp 180.912.000 Rp 90.456.000
12 10080 10,11,12 28928 Rp 543.792.000 Rp 181.264.000
Only Period 10
11 9884 11 9884 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000
12 10080 11,12 19964 Rp 184.440.000 Rp 92.220.000
13 10080 11,12,13 30044 Rp 547.320.000 Rp 182.440.000
Only Period 11
12 10080 12 10080 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000
13 10080 12,13 20160 Rp 184.440.000 Rp 92.220.000
14 7200 12,13,14 27360 Rp 443.640.000 Rp 147.880.000
Only Period 12
4.121
13 10080 13 10080 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

14 7200 13,14 17280 Rp 132.600.000 Rp 66.300.000
15 6960 13,14,15 24240 Rp 383.160.000 Rp 127.720.000
14 7200 14 7200 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

15 6960 14,15 14160 Rp 128.280.000 Rp 64.140.000
16 10000 14,15,16 24160 Rp 488.280.000 Rp 162.760.000
15 6960 15 6960 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

16 10000 15,16 16960 Rp 183.000.000 Rp 91.500.000
17 10500 15,16,17 27460 Rp 561.000.000 Rp 187.000.000
16 10000 16 10000 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

17 10500 16,17 20500 Rp 192.000.000 Rp 96.000.000
18 10500 16,17,18 31000 Rp 570.000.000 Rp 190.000.000
17 10500 17 10500 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

18 10500 17,18 21000 Rp 192.000.000 Rp 96.000.000
19 11820 17,18,19 32820 Rp 617.520.000 Rp 205.840.000
18 10500 18 10500 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

19 11820 18,19 22320 Rp 215.760.000 Rp 107.880.000
20 12208 18,19,20 34528 Rp 655.248.000 Rp 218.416.000
19 11820 19 11820 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

20 12208 19,20 24028 Rp 222.744.000 Rp 111.372.000
21 10484 19,20,21 34512 Rp 600.168.000 Rp 200.056.000
20 12208 20 12208 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

21 10484 20,21 22692 Rp 191.712.000 Rp 95.856.000
22 11944 20,21,22 34636 Rp 621.696.000 Rp 207.232.000
21 10484 21 10484 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

22 11944 21,22 22428 Rp 217.992.000 Rp 108.996.000
23 6980 21,22,23 29408 Rp 469.272.000 Rp 156.424.000
22 11944 22 11944 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

23 6980 22,23 18924 Rp 128.640.000 Rp 64.320.000
24 872 22,23,24 19796 Rp 160.032.000 Rp 53.344.000
4.122
23 6980 23 6980 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

24 872 23,24 7852 Rp 18.696.000 Rp 9.348.000
4.123
Table 4.75. Silver Meal Product E
Period (Week) -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Lot Sizing 7368 8980 7772 8832 9932 10080 10080 10080 10344 10484 10500 10500 8964
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
9884 10080 10080 7200 6960 10000 10500 10500 11820 12208 10484 11944 6980 872 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
9884 10080 10080 7200 6960 10000 10500 10500 11820 12208 10484 11944 6980 872 0 0
9884 10080 10080 7200 6960 10000 10500 10500 11820 12208 10484 11944 6980 872 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
10080 10080 7200 6960 10000 10500 10500 11820 12208 10484 11944 6980 872 0 0 0

Holding Cost 0 Rp -
4.124
 Item F
= + ×𝐻 ×𝐻
=
#
as belows.
= + × × =
= =
d Requireme periods Cost
Req)
-1 614 -1 614 Rp Rp
3.000.000 3.000.000
0 646 -1,0 1260 Rp Rp
14.628.000 7.314.000
1 540 -1,0,1 1800 Rp Rp
34.068.000 11.356.000
0 646 0 646 Rp Rp
3.000.000 3.000.000
1 540 0,1 1186 Rp Rp
12.720.000 6.360.000
2 646 0,1,2 1832 Rp Rp
35.976.000 11.992.000
4.125
1 540 1 540 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

2 646 1,2 1186 Rp 14.628.000 Rp 7.314.000
3 720 1,2,3 1906 Rp 40.548.000 Rp 13.516.000
2 646 2 646 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000
3 720 2,3 1366 Rp 15.960.000 Rp 7.980.000
4 720 2,3,4 2086 Rp 41.880.000 Rp 13.960.000
Only period 2
3 720 3 720 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000
4 720 3,4 1440 Rp 15.960.000 Rp 7.980.000
5 720 3,4,5 2160 Rp 41.880.000 Rp 13.960.000
Only period 3
4 720 4 720 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000
5 720 4,5 1440 Rp 15.960.000 Rp 7.980.000
6 720 4,5,6 2160 Rp 41.880.000 Rp 13.960.000
Only period 4
5 720 5 720 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000
6 720 5,6 1440 Rp 15.960.000 Rp 7.980.000
7 742 5,6,7 2182 Rp 42.672.000 Rp 14.224.000
Only Period 5
6 720 6 720 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000
7 742 6,7 1462 Rp 16.356.000 Rp 8.178.000
8 750 6,7,8 2212 Rp 43.356.000 Rp 14.452.000
Only Period 6
7 742 7 742 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000
8 750 7,8 1492 Rp 16.500.000 Rp 8.250.000
9 750 7,8,9 2242 Rp 43.500.000 Rp 14.500.000
Only Period 7
8 750 8 750 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000
9 750 8,9 1500 Rp 16.500.000 Rp 8.250.000
10 750 8,9,10 2250 Rp 43.500.000 Rp 14.500.000
Only Period 8
9 750 9 750 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000
10 750 9,1 1500 Rp 16.500.000 Rp 8.250.000
11 622 9,10,11 2122 Rp 38.892.000 Rp 12.964.000
Only Period 9
10 750 10 750 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000
11 622 10,11 1372 Rp 14.196.000 Rp 7.098.000
12 720 10,11,12 2092 Rp 40.116.000 Rp 13.372.000
4.126
11 622 11 622 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

12 720 11,12 1342 Rp Rp 7.980.000
15.960.000
13 720 11,12,13 2062 Rp Rp 13.960.000
41.880.000
Only Period
11
12 720 12 720 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000
13 720 12,13 1440 Rp Rp 7.980.000
15.960.000
14 720 12,13,14 2160 Rp Rp 13.960.000
41.880.000
Only Period
12
13 720 13 720 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000
14 720 13,14 1440 Rp 15.960.000 Rp 7.980.000
15 480 13,14,15 1920 Rp 33.240.000 Rp 11.080.000
14 720 14 720 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

15 480 14,15 1200 Rp 11.640.000 Rp 5.820.000
16 500 14,15,16 1700 Rp 29.640.000 Rp 9.880.000
15 480 15 480 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

16 500 15,16 980 Rp 12.000.000 Rp 6.000.000
17 750 15,16,17 1730 Rp 39.000.000 Rp 13.000.000
16 500 16 500 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

17 750 16,17 1250 Rp 16.500.000 Rp 8.250.000
18 750 16,17,18 2000 Rp 43.500.000 Rp 14.500.000
17 750 17 750 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

18 750 17,18 1500 Rp 16.500.000 Rp 8.250.000
19 750 17,18,19 2250 Rp 43.500.000 Rp 14.500.000
4.127
18 750 18 750 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

19 750 18,19 1500 Rp 16.500.000 Rp 8.250.000
20 860 18,19,20 2360 Rp 47.460.000 Rp 15.820.000
19 750 19 750 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

20 860 19,20 1610 Rp 18.480.000 Rp 9.240.000
21 874 19,20,21 2484 Rp 49.944.000 Rp 16.648.000
20 860 20 860 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

21 874 20,21 1734 Rp 18.732.000 Rp 9.366.000
22 728 20,21,22 2462 Rp 44.940.000 Rp 14.980.000
21 874 21 874 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

22 728 21,22 1602 Rp 16.104.000 Rp 8.052.000
23 874 21,22,23 2476 Rp 47.568.000 Rp 15.856.000
22 728 22 728 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

23 874 22,23 1602 Rp 18.732.000 Rp 9.366.000
24 436 22,23,24 2038 Rp 34.428.000 Rp 11.476.000
23 874 23 874 Rp 3.000.000 Rp 3.000.000

24 436 23,24 1310 Rp 10.848.000 Rp 5.424.000
4.128
Table 4.78. Silver Meal Product F
Period (Week) -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Lot Sizing 614 646 540 646 720 720 720 720 742 750 750 750
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
622 720 720 720 480 500 750 750 750 860 874 728 874 436 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
622 720 720 720 480 500 750 750 750 860 874 728 874 436 0 0
622 720 720 720 480 500 750 750 750 860 874 728 874 436 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
720 720 720 480 500 750 750 750 860 874 728 874 436 0 0 0

Holding Cost 0 Rp -
4.129
4.6. Wagner-Whithin (WW)
Wagner-Within method is part of dynamic lot sizing models (DLS). Wagner-
Within has the same objective as some of the heuristic approach which is
minimizing the variable inventory cost, ordering cost (setup cost) and holding cost
over the planning horizon. The lot-for-lot conducted in each items, such as belows.
All of items are assumed, has same lead time equal with 1 week, no safety stock,
ordering cost per week is Rp 3.000.000 and holding cost is Rp 18.000/unit/month.
cost by using Wagner-Whitin is Rp 472.800.000.
PART COST
X Rp 79.800.000
B Rp 78.000.000
C Rp 78.000.000
D Rp 78.000.000
E Rp 81.000.000
F Rp 78.000.000
PART
4.130
 Product X
Below are shown the net requirements of product X.
Table 4.63. Net Requirements Product X
Item X
Period (Week) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
311 360 360 360 240 250 375 375 375 430 437 364 437 218
First, the value of beginning cost in each period should be calculated as belows.
= +
To find the value in each value, by using formula as belows.
= +𝐻 × 𝐻
The calculation of each column will be shown on the next page.
4.131
Table 4.64. WW Method
Zce
C
e=1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp
1 3.000.000 8.814.000 18.534.000 35.976.000 61.896.000 94.296.000 133.176.000 178.536.000 231.960.000
Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp
2 6.000.000 10.860.000 22.488.000 41.928.000 67.848.000 100.248.000 139.128.000 185.874.000
Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp
3 9.000.000 14.814.000 27.774.000 47.214.000 73.134.000 105.534.000 145.602.000
Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp
4 12.000.000 18.480.000 31.440.000 50.880.000 76.800.000 110.190.000
Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp
5 15.000.000 21.480.000 34.440.000 53.880.000 80.592.000
Rp Rp Rp Rp
6 18.000.000 24.480.000 37.440.000 57.474.000
Rp Rp Rp
7 21.000.000 27.480.000 40.836.000
Rp Rp
8 24.000.000 30.678.000
Rp
9 27.000.000
4.132
Table 4.64. WW Method (continued)
1 Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp
0 30.000.000 36.750.000 50.250.000 67.044.000 92.964.000 125.364.000 164.244.000 194.484.000 230.484.000
1 Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp
1 33.000.000 39.750.000 50.946.000 70.386.000 96.306.000 128.706.000 154.626.000 186.126.000
1 Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp
2 36.000.000 41.598.000 54.558.000 73.998.000 99.918.000 121.518.000 148.518.000
1 Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp
3 39.000.000 45.480.000 58.440.000 77.880.000 95.160.000 117.660.000
1 Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp
4 42.000.000 48.480.000 61.440.000 74.400.000 92.400.000
1 Rp Rp Rp Rp
5 45.000.000 51.480.000 60.120.000 73.620.000
1 Rp Rp Rp
6 48.000.000 52.320.000 61.320.000
1 Rp Rp
7 51.000.000 55.500.000
1 Rp
8 54.000.000
4.133
9 57.000.000 63.750.000 77.250.000 100.470.000 131.934.000 164.694.000 211.890.000 239.358.000
0 60.000.000 66.750.000 82.230.000 105.828.000 132.036.000 171.366.000 194.910.000
2 Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp
1 63.000.000 70.740.000 86.472.000 106.128.000 137.592.000 157.212.000
2 Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp
2 66.000.000 73.866.000 86.970.000 110.568.000 126.264.000
2 Rp Rp Rp Rp
3 69.000.000 75.552.000 91.284.000 103.056.000
2 Rp Rp Rp
4 72.000.000 79.866.000 87.714.000
2 Rp Rp
5 75.000.000 78.924.000
2 Rp
6 78.000.000
Cell that is colored by yellow,it is mean that lowest cost at that period. From the table above, it is showed that each lot will cover only
one period, because each lowest cost is located at the end of period. The calculation of POR and total cost will be showed on the next
page.
4.134
Table 4.65. POR Product X
Period (Week) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Schedule Receipt
Lot Sizing 307 323 270 323 360 360 360 360 371 375
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
375 375 311 360 360 360 240 250 375 375 375 430 437 364 437 218
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
375 375 311 360 360 360 240 250 375 375 375 430 437 364 437 218
375 375 311 360 360 360 240 250 375 375 375 430 437 364 437 218
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100
375 311 360 360 360 240 250 375 375 375 430 437 364 437 218 0

4.135
 Item B
Below are shown the net requirements of product B.
Table 4.67. Net Requirements Product B
Period (Week) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
720 720 720 480 500 750 750 750 860 874 728 874 436 0
= +
= +𝐻 × 𝐻
4.136
Zce
C
e=0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
0 3.000.000 14.628.000 34.068.000 68.952.000 120.792.000 185.592.000 263.352.000 354.072.000
1 6.000.000 15.720.000 38.976.000 77.856.000 129.696.000 194.496.000 272.256.000
Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp
2 9.000.000 20.628.000 46.548.000 85.428.000 137.268.000 202.068.000
Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp
3 12.000.000 24.960.000 50.880.000 89.760.000 141.600.000
Rp Rp Rp Rp
4 15.000.000 27.960.000 53.880.000 92.760.000
Rp Rp Rp
5 18.000.000 30.960.000 56.880.000
Rp Rp
6 21.000.000 33.960.000
Rp
7 24.000.000
4.137
Rp Rp Rp 108.000.00 152.784.00 217.584.00 295.344.00 386.064.00 455.184.00 536.184.00
8 27.000.000 40.500.000 67.500.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp
Rp Rp Rp 104.088.00 155.928.00 220.728.00 298.488.00 358.968.00 430.968.00
9 30.000.000 43.500.000 70.500.000 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp
1 Rp Rp Rp 107.772.00 159.612.00 224.412.00 276.252.00 339.252.00
0 33.000.000 46.500.000 68.892.000 0 0 0 0 0
Rp Rp Rp Rp
1 Rp Rp Rp 111.996.00 163.836.00 207.036.00 261.036.00
1 36.000.000 47.196.000 73.116.000 0 0 0 0
Rp Rp Rp
1 Rp Rp Rp 116.760.00 151.320.00 196.320.00
2 39.000.000 51.960.000 77.880.000 0 0 0
Rp Rp
1 Rp Rp Rp 106.800.00 142.800.00
3 42.000.000 54.960.000 80.880.000 0 0
Rp
1 Rp Rp Rp 102.240.00
4 45.000.000 57.960.000 75.240.000 0
4.138
5 48.000.000 56.640.000 74.640.000 115.140.000 169.140.000 236.640.000 329.520.000
1 Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp
6 51.000.000 60.000.000 87.000.000 127.500.000 181.500.000 258.900.000
1 Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp
7 54.000.000 67.500.000 94.500.000 135.000.000 196.920.000
1 Rp Rp Rp Rp
8 57.000.000 70.500.000 97.500.000 143.940.000
1 Rp Rp Rp
9 60.000.000 73.500.000 104.460.000
2 Rp Rp
0 63.000.000 78.480.000
2 Rp
1 66.000.000
4.139
22 Rp 69.000.000 Rp 82.104.000 Rp 113.568.000 Rp 137.112.000

23 Rp 72.000.000 Rp 87.732.000 Rp 103.428.000
24 Rp 75.000.000 Rp 82.848.000
25 Rp 78.000.000
page.
4.140
Table 4.69. POR Product B
Period (Week) -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Lot Sizing 614 646 540 646 720 720 720 720 742 750 750
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
750 622 720 720 720 480 500 750 750 750 860 874 728 874 436 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
750 622 720 720 720 480 500 750 750 750 860 874 728 874 436 0
750 622 720 720 720 480 500 750 750 750 860 874 728 874 436 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
622 720 720 720 480 500 750 750 750 860 874 728 874 436 0 0

Holding Cost 0 Rp -
4.141
 Item C
Below are shown the net requirements of product C.
Table 4.71. Net Requirements Product C
Period (Week) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
360 360 360 240 250 375 375 375 430 437 364 437 218 0
= +
= +𝐻 × 𝐻
4.142
Zce
C
e=0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
0 3.000.000 8.814.000 18.534.000 35.976.000 61.896.000 94.296.000 133.176.000 178.536.000
1 6.000.000 10.860.000 22.488.000 41.928.000 67.848.000 100.248.000 139.128.000
Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp
2 9.000.000 14.814.000 27.774.000 47.214.000 73.134.000 105.534.000
Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp
3 12.000.000 18.480.000 31.440.000 50.880.000 76.800.000
Rp Rp Rp Rp
4 15.000.000 21.480.000 34.440.000 53.880.000
Rp Rp Rp
5 18.000.000 24.480.000 37.440.000
Rp Rp
6 21.000.000 27.480.000
Rp
7 24.000.000
4.143
8 27.000.000 33.750.000 47.250.000 67.500.000 89.892.000 122.292.000 161.172.000
Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp
9 30.000.000 36.750.000 50.250.000 67.044.000 92.964.000 125.364.000
1 Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp
0 33.000.000 39.750.000 50.946.000 70.386.000 96.306.000
1 Rp Rp Rp Rp
1 36.000.000 41.598.000 54.558.000 73.998.000
1 Rp Rp Rp
2 39.000.000 45.480.000 58.440.000
1 Rp Rp
3 42.000.000 48.480.000
1 Rp
4 45.000.000
4.144
5 48.000.000 52.320.000 61.320.000 81.570.000 108.570.000 142.320.000 188.760.000 243.822.000
6 51.000.000 55.500.000 69.000.000 89.250.000 116.250.000 154.950.000 202.146.000
1 Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp
7 54.000.000 60.750.000 74.250.000 94.500.000 125.460.000 164.790.000
1 Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp
8 57.000.000 63.750.000 77.250.000 100.470.000 131.934.000
1 Rp Rp Rp Rp
9 60.000.000 66.750.000 82.230.000 105.828.000
2 Rp Rp Rp
0 63.000.000 70.740.000 86.472.000
2 Rp Rp
1 66.000.000 73.866.000
2 Rp
2 69.000.000
4.145
23 Rp 72.000.000 Rp 79.866.000 Rp 87.714.000

24 Rp 75.000.000 Rp 78.924.000
25 Rp 78.000.000
page.
4.146
Table 4.73. POR Product C
Period (Week) -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Lot Sizing 307 323 270 323 360 360 360 360 371 375 375
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
375 311 360 360 360 240 250 375 375 375 430 437 364 437 218 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
375 311 360 360 360 240 250 375 375 375 430 437 364 437 218 0
375 311 360 360 360 240 250 375 375 375 430 437 364 437 218 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
311 360 360 360 240 250 375 375 375 430 437 364 437 218 0 0

Holding Cost 0 Rp -
4.147
 Item D
Below are shown the net requirements of product D.
Table 4.75. Net Requirements Product D
Period (Week) -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Net Requirements 1842 1938 1620 1938 2160 2160 2160 2160 2226 2250 2250 2250 1866 2160
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
2160 2160 1440 1500 2250 2250 2250 2580 2622 2184 2622 1308 0 0
= +
= +𝐻 × 𝐻
4.148
Zce
C
e= -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Rp Rp
- Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp 1.056.216.00 1.376.760.00
1 3.000.000 37.884.000 96.204.000 200.856.000 356.376.000 550.776.000 784.056.000 0 0
Rp
Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp 1.085.244.00
0 6.000.000 35.160.000 104.928.000 221.568.000 377.088.000 571.488.000 804.768.000 0
1 9.000.000 43.884.000 121.644.000 238.284.000 393.804.000 588.204.000 828.612.000
Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp
2 12.000.000 50.880.000 128.640.000 245.280.000 400.800.000 601.140.000
Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp
3 15.000.000 53.880.000 131.640.000 248.280.000 408.552.000
Rp Rp Rp Rp
4 18.000.000 56.880.000 134.640.000 254.844.000
Rp Rp Rp
5 21.000.000 59.880.000 140.016.000
Rp Rp
6 24.000.000 64.068.000
Rp
7 27.000.000
4.149
8 30.000.000 70.500.000 151.500.000 252.264.000 407.784.000 602.184.000 835.464.000
Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp
9 33.000.000 73.500.000 140.676.000 257.316.000 412.836.000 607.236.000
1 Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp
0 36.000.000 69.588.000 147.348.000 263.988.000 419.508.000
1 Rp Rp Rp Rp
1 39.000.000 77.880.000 155.640.000 272.280.000
1 Rp Rp Rp
2 42.000.000 80.880.000 158.640.000
1 Rp Rp
3 45.000.000 83.880.000
1 Rp
4 48.000.000
4.150
5 51.000.000 78.000.000 159.000.000 280.500.000 442.500.000 674.700.000 957.876.000
1 Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp
6 54.000.000 94.500.000 175.500.000 297.000.000 482.760.000 718.740.000
1 Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp
7 57.000.000 97.500.000 178.500.000 317.820.000 506.604.000
1 Rp Rp Rp Rp
8 60.000.000 100.500.000 193.380.000 334.968.000
1 Rp Rp Rp
9 63.000.000 109.440.000 203.832.000
2 Rp Rp
0 66.000.000 113.196.000
2 Rp
1 69.000.000
4.151
22 Rp 72.000.000 Rp 119.196.000 Rp 166.284.000

23 Rp 75.000.000 Rp 98.544.000
24 Rp 78.000.000
page.
4.152
Table 4.77. POR Product D
Period (Week) -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Lot Sizing 1842 1938 1620 1938 2160 2160 2160 2160 2226 2250 2250 2250
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
1866 2160 2160 2160 1440 1500 2250 2250 2250 2580 2622 2184 2622 1308 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1866 2160 2160 2160 1440 1500 2250 2250 2250 2580 2622 2184 2622 1308 0
1866 2160 2160 2160 1440 1500 2250 2250 2250 2580 2622 2184 2622 1308 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2160 2160 2160 1440 1500 2250 2250 2250 2580 2622 2184 2622 1308 0 0

Holding Cost 0 0
4.153
 Item E
Below are shown the net requirements of product E.
Table 4.79. Net Requirements Product E
Period (Week) -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Net 7368 898 777 883 9932 10080 1008 1008 1034 1048 10500 1050 896 9884 10080
Requirements 0 2 2 0 0 4 4 0 4
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
10080 7200 6960 10000 10500 1050 1182 1220 10484 11944 6980 872 0 0
0 0 8
= +
= +𝐻 × 𝐻
4.154
Zce
C
e= -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
- Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp
2 3.000.000 164.640.000 444.432.000 921.360.000 1.636.464.000 2.543.664.000 3.632.304.000
- Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp
1 6.000.000 145.896.000 463.848.000 1.000.176.000 1.725.936.000 2.633.136.000
Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp
0 9.000.000 167.976.000 525.528.000 1.069.848.000 1.795.608.000
Rp Rp Rp Rp
1 12.000.000 190.776.000 553.656.000 1.097.976.000
Rp Rp Rp
2 15.000.000 196.440.000 559.320.000
Rp Rp
3 18.000.000 199.440.000
Rp
4 21.000.000
4.155
5 24.000.000 210.192.000 587.616.000 1.154.616.000 1.910.616.000 2.717.376.000 3.784.848.000 5.054.928.000
6 27.000.000 215.712.000 593.712.000 1.160.712.000 1.806.120.000 2.695.680.000 3.784.320.000
Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp
7 30.000.000 219.000.000 597.000.000 1.081.056.000 1.792.704.000 2.699.904.000
Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp
8 33.000.000 222.000.000 544.704.000 1.078.440.000 1.804.200.000
Rp Rp Rp Rp
9 36.000.000 197.352.000 553.176.000 1.097.496.000
1 Rp Rp Rp
0 39.000.000 216.912.000 579.792.000
1 Rp Rp
1 42.000.000 223.440.000
1 Rp
2 45.000.000
4.156
3 48.000.000 177.600.000 428.160.000 968.160.000 1.724.160.000 2.669.160.000 3.945.720.000
1 Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp
4 51.000.000 176.280.000 536.280.000 1.103.280.000 1.859.280.000 2.923.080.000
1 Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp
5 54.000.000 234.000.000 612.000.000 1.179.000.000 2.030.040.000
1 Rp Rp Rp Rp
6 57.000.000 246.000.000 624.000.000 1.262.280.000
1 Rp Rp Rp
7 60.000.000 249.000.000 674.520.000
1 Rp Rp
8 63.000.000 275.760.000
1 Rp
9 66.000.000
4.157
20 Rp 69.000.000 Rp 257.712.000 Rp 687.696.000 Rp 1.064.616.000 Rp 1.127.400.000

21 Rp 72.000.000 Rp 286.992.000 Rp 538.272.000 Rp 585.360.000
22 Rp 75.000.000 Rp 200.640.000 Rp 232.032.000
23 Rp 78.000.000 Rp 93.696.000
24 Rp 81.000.000
page.
4.158
Table 4.82. POR Product D
Period (Week) -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Lot Sizing 7368 8980 7772 8832 9932 10080 10080 10080 10344 10484 10500 10500 8964
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
9884 10080 10080 7200 6960 10000 10500 10500 11820 12208 10484 11944 6980 872 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
9884 10080 10080 7200 6960 10000 10500 10500 11820 12208 10484 11944 6980 872 0 0
9884 10080 10080 7200 6960 10000 10500 10500 11820 12208 10484 11944 6980 872 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
10080 10080 7200 6960 10000 10500 10500 11820 12208 10484 11944 6980 872 0 0 0

Holding Cost 0 Rp -
4.159
 Item F
Below are shown the net requirements of product F.
Table 4.84. Net Requirements Product F
Period (Week) -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Net Requirements 614 646 540 646 720 720 720 720 742 750 750 750 622 720
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
720 720 480 500 750 750 750 860 874 728 874 436 0 0
= +
= +𝐻 × 𝐻
4.160
Zce
C
e= -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
- Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp
1 3.000.000 14.628.000 34.068.000 68.952.000 120.792.000 185.592.000 263.352.000
Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp
0 6.000.000 15.720.000 38.976.000 77.856.000 129.696.000 194.496.000
Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp
1 9.000.000 20.628.000 46.548.000 85.428.000 137.268.000
Rp Rp Rp Rp
2 12.000.000 24.960.000 50.880.000 89.760.000
Rp Rp Rp
3 15.000.000 27.960.000 53.880.000
Rp Rp
4 18.000.000 30.960.000
Rp
5 21.000.000
4.161
6 24.000.000 37.356.000 64.356.000 104.856.000 158.856.000 214.836.000 292.596.000
Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp
7 27.000.000 40.500.000 67.500.000 108.000.000 152.784.000 217.584.000
Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp
8 30.000.000 43.500.000 70.500.000 104.088.000 155.928.000
Rp Rp Rp Rp
9 33.000.000 46.500.000 68.892.000 107.772.000
1 Rp Rp Rp
0 36.000.000 47.196.000 73.116.000
1 Rp Rp
1 39.000.000 51.960.000
1 Rp
2 42.000.000
4.162
1 Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp
3 45.000.000 57.960.000 75.240.000 102.240.000 156.240.000 223.740.000
1 Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp
4 48.000.000 56.640.000 74.640.000 115.140.000 169.140.000
1 Rp Rp Rp Rp
5 51.000.000 60.000.000 87.000.000 127.500.000
1 Rp Rp Rp
6 54.000.000 67.500.000 94.500.000
1 Rp Rp
7 57.000.000 70.500.000
1 Rp
8 60.000.000
4.163
1 Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp
9 63.000.000 78.480.000 109.944.000 149.256.000 212.184.000 251.424.000
2 Rp Rp Rp Rp Rp
0 66.000.000 81.732.000 107.940.000 155.136.000 186.528.000
2 Rp Rp Rp Rp
1 69.000.000 82.104.000 113.568.000 137.112.000
2 Rp Rp Rp
2 72.000.000 87.732.000 103.428.000
2 Rp Rp
3 75.000.000 82.848.000
2 Rp
4 78.000.000
page.
4.164
Table 4.86. POR Product F
Period (Week) -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Lot Sizing 614 646 540 646 720 720 720 720 742 750 750 750
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
622 720 720 720 480 500 750 750 750 860 874 728 874 436 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
622 720 720 720 480 500 750 750 750 860 874 728 874 436 0 0
622 720 720 720 480 500 750 750 750 860 874 728 874 436 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
720 720 720 480 500 750 750 750 860 874 728 874 436 0 0 0

Holding Cost 0 Rp -
4.165
4.7. Groff’s Algorithm
Groff proposed a method that is similar to Mc Laren’s order moment method in that
it considers the addition of a future demand in a lot. The lot-for-lot conducted in
each items, such as belows. All of items are assumed, has same lead time equal with
1 week, no safety stock, ordering cost per week is Rp 3.000.000 and holding cost is
Rp 18.000/unit/month.
cost by using Groff’s Algorithm is Rp 472.800.000.
Table 4.88. Total Cost of Groff’s Algorithm Method
PART COST
X Rp 119.514.000
B Rp 39.000.000
C Rp 39.000.000
D Rp 39.000.000
E Rp 39.000.000
F Rp 39.000.000
TOTAL COST ALL
Rp 314.514.000
PART
 Product X
conducted. A future dt included if not exceed the value of formula belows.
.
− ≤
𝐻
.
− ≤ = .
If exceed the value,so cut the period and start from that period to next period.
4.166
Table 4.89. Groff’s Algorithm Method
Period Net Trial periods Trial Lot Size n n(n-1)Dn <=333.33?

Requirements Combined (Cum. Net Req) (IDR) (IDR)
1 307 1 307 0 Rp YES
-
2 323 1,2 630 1 Rp YES
-
3 270 1,2,3 900 2 Rp NO
540
Combine only period 1,2
3 270 3 270 0 Rp YES
-
4 323 3,4 593 1 Rp YES
-
5 360 3,4,5 953 2 Rp NO
720
Only period 3,4
5 360 5 360 0 Rp YES
-
6 360 5,6 720 1 Rp YES
-
7 360 5,6,7 1080 2 Rp NO
720
Only period 5,6
4.167
Table 4.89. Groff’s Algorithm Method (continued)
7 360 7 360 0 Rp YES

-
8 360 7,8 720 1 Rp YES
-
9 371 7,8,9 1091 2 Rp NO
742
Only period 7,8
9 371 9 371 0 Rp YES
-
10 375 9,10 746 1 Rp YES
-
11 375 9,10,11 1121 2 Rp NO
750
Only Period 9,10
11 375 11 375 0 Rp YES
-
12 375 11,12 750 1 Rp YES
-
13 311 11,12,13 1061 2 Rp NO
622
Only Period 11,12
4.168
13 311 13 311 0 Rp YES

-
14 360 13,14 671 1 Rp YES
-
15 360 13,14,15 1031 2 Rp NO
720
Only Period 13,14
15 360 15 360 0 Rp YES
-
16 360 15,16 720 1 Rp YES
-
17 240 15,16,17 960 2 Rp NO
480
Only Period 15,16
17 240 17 240 0 Rp YES
-
18 250 17,18 490 1 Rp YES
-
19 375 17,18,19 865 2 Rp NO
750
Only Period 17,18
4.169
19 375 19 375 0 Rp YES

-
20 375 19,20 750 1 Rp YES
-
21 375 19,20,21 1125 2 Rp NO
750
Only Period 19,20
21 375 21 375 0 Rp YES
-
22 430 21,22 805 1 Rp YES
-
23 437 21,22,23 1242 2 Rp NO
874
Only Period 21,22
23 437 23 437 0 Rp YES
-
24 364 23,24 801 1 Rp YES
-
25 437 23,24,25 1238 2 Rp NO
874
Only Period 23,24
25 437 25 437 0 Rp YES
-
26 218 25,26 655 1 Rp YES
-
After determining the scope of period, now proceed to make planning of materials and calculate the total cost.
4.170
Table 4.90. POR Groff’s Algorithm Method
Period (Week) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Schedule Receipt
Lot Sizing 630 0 593 0 720 0 720 0 746 0
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
375 375 311 360 360 360 240 250 375 375 375 430 437 364 437 218
0 375 0 360 0 360 0 250 0 375 0 430 0 364 0 218

375 0 311 0 360 0 240 0 375 0 375 0 437 0 437 0
750 0 671 0 720 0 490 0 750 0 805 0 801 0 655 0
375 0 360 0 360 0 250 0 375 0 430 0 364 0 218 0
0 671 0 720 0 490 0 750 0 805 0 801 0 655 0 0

4.171
 Item B
.
− ≤
𝐻
.
− ≤ = .
4.172

0 1260 0 1260 0 Rp YES
-
1 0 0,1 1260 1 Rp YES
-
2 1186 0,1,2 2446 2 Rp NO
2.372
2 1186 2 1186 0 Rp YES

-
3 0 2,3 1186 1 Rp YES
-
4 1440 2,3,4 2626 2 Rp NO
2.880
4 1440 4 1440 0 Rp YES

-
5 0 4,5 1440 1 Rp YES
-
6 1440 4,5,6 2880 2 Rp NO
2.880
4.173
6 1440 6 1440 0 Rp YES

-
7 0 6,7 1440 1 Rp YES
-
8 1492 6,7,8 2932 2 Rp NO
2.984
8 1492 8 1492 0 Rp YES

-
9 0 8,9 1492 1 Rp YES
-
10 1500 8,9,10 2992 2 Rp NO
3.000
10 1500 10 1500 0 Rp YES

-
11 0 10,11 1500 1 Rp YES
-
12 1342 10,11,12 2842 2 Rp NO
2.684
4.174
12 1342 12 1342 0 Rp YES

-
13 0 12,13 1342 1 Rp YES
-
14 1440 12,13,14 2782 2 Rp NO
2.880
14 1440 14 1440 0 Rp YES

-
15 0 14,15 1440 1 Rp YES
-
16 980 14,15,16 2420 2 Rp NO
1.960
16 980 16 980 0 Rp YES

-
17 0 16,17 980 1 Rp YES
-
18 1500 16,17,18 2480 2 Rp NO
3.000
4.175
18 1500 18 1500 0 Rp YES

-
19 0 18,19 1500 1 Rp YES
-
20 1610 18,19,20 3110 2 Rp NO
3.220
20 1610 20 1610 0 Rp YES

-
21 0 20,21 1610 1 Rp YES
-
22 1602 20,21,22 3212 2 Rp NO
3.204
22 1602 22 1602 0 Rp YES

-
23 0 22,23 1602 1 Rp YES
-
24 1310 22,23,24 2912 2 Rp NO
2.620
4.176
Rp
24 1310 24 1310 0 YES
-
Rp
25 0 24,25 1310 1 YES
-
Rp
26 0 24,25,26 1310 2 YES
-
Rp
25 437 25 437 0 YES
-
Rp
26 218 25,26 655 1 YES
-
After determining the scope of period, now proceed to make planning of materials and calculate the total cost. It is showed on the next
page.
4.177
Period (Week) -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Schedule Receipt
Lot Sizing 1260 0 1186 0 1440 0 1440 0 1492 0 1500
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
0 1342 0 1440 0 980 0 1500 0 1610 0 1602 0 1310 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 1342 0 1440 0 980 0 1500 0 1610 0 1602 0 1310 0 0
0 1342 0 1440 0 980 0 1500 0 1610 0 1602 0 1310 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1342 0 1440 0 980 0 1500 0 1610 0 1602 0 1310 0 0 0

Holding Cost 0 Rp -
4.178
 Item C
.
− ≤
𝐻
.
− ≤ = .
4.179

0 630 0 630 0 Rp YES
-
1 0 0,1 630 1 Rp YES
-
2 593 0,1,2 1223 2 Rp NO
1.186
2 593 2 593 0 Rp YES

-
3 0 2,3 593 1 Rp YES
-
4 720 2,3,4 1313 2 Rp NO
1.440
4 720 4 720 0 Rp YES

-
5 0 4,5 720 1 Rp YES
-
6 720 4,5,6 1440 2 Rp NO
1.440
4.180
6 720 6 720 0 Rp YES

-
7 0 6,7 720 1 Rp YES
-
8 746 6,7,8 1466 2 Rp NO
1.492
8 746 8 746 0 Rp YES

-
9 0 8,9 746 1 Rp YES
-
10 750 8,9,10 1496 2 Rp NO
1.500
10 750 10 750 0 Rp YES

-
11 0 10,11 750 1 Rp YES
-
12 671 10,11,12 1421 2 Rp NO
1.342
4.181
12 671 12 671 0 Rp YES

-
13 0 12,13 671 1 Rp YES
-
14 720 12,13,14 1391 2 Rp NO
1.440
14 720 14 720 0 Rp YES

-
15 0 14,15 720 1 Rp YES
-
16 490 14,15,16 1210 2 Rp NO
980
16 490 16 490 0 Rp YES

-
17 0 16,17 490 1 Rp YES
-
18 750 16,17,18 1240 2 Rp NO
1.500
4.182
18 750 18 750 0 Rp YES

-
19 0 18,19 750 1 Rp YES
-
20 805 18,19,20 1555 2 Rp NO
1.610
20 805 20 805 0 Rp YES

-
21 0 20,21 805 1 Rp YES
-
22 801 20,21,22 1606 2 Rp NO
1.602
22 801 22 801 0 Rp YES

-
23 0 22,23 801 1 Rp YES
-
24 655 22,23,24 1456 2 Rp NO
1.310
4.183
24 655 24 655 0 Rp YES

-
25 0 24,25 655 1 Rp YES
-
26 0 24,25,26 655 2 Rp YES
-
page.
4.184
Period (Week) -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Schedule Receipt
Lot Sizing 630 0 593 0 720 0 720 0 746 0 750
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
0 671 0 720 0 490 0 750 0 805 0 801 0 655 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 671 0 720 0 490 0 750 0 805 0 801 0 655 0 0
0 671 0 720 0 490 0 750 0 805 0 801 0 655 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
671 0 720 0 490 0 750 0 805 0 801 0 655 0 0 0

Holding Cost 0 Rp -
4.185
 Item D
.
− ≤
𝐻
.
− ≤ = .
4.186

-1 3780 -1 3780 0 Rp YES
-
0 0 -1,0 3780 1 Rp YES
-
1 3558 -1,0,1 7338 2 Rp NO
7.116
Only period -1,0
1 3558 1 3558 0 Rp YES
-
2 0 1,2 3558 1 Rp YES
-
3 4320 1,2,3 7878 2 Rp NO
8.640
3 4320 3 4320 0 Rp YES
-
4 0 3,4 4320 1 Rp YES
-
5 4320 3,4,5 8640 2 Rp NO
8.640
Only period 3,4
4.187
5 4320 5 4320 0 Rp YES

-
6 0 5,6 4320 1 Rp YES
-
7 4476 5,6,7 8796 2 Rp NO
8.952
Only period 5,6
7 4476 7 4476 0 Rp YES
-
8 0 7,8 4476 1 Rp YES
-
9 4500 7,8,9 8976 2 Rp NO
9.000
Only period 7,8
9 4500 9 4500 0 Rp YES
-
10 0 9,10 4500 1 Rp YES
-
11 4026 9,10,11 8526 2 Rp NO
8.052
Only Period 9,10
4.188
11 4026 11 4026 0 Rp YES

-
12 0 11,12 4026 1 Rp YES
-
13 4320 11,12,13 8346 2 Rp NO
8.640
Only Period 11,12
13 4320 13 4320 0 Rp YES
-
14 0 13,14 4320 1 Rp YES
-
15 2940 13,14,15 7260 2 Rp NO
5.880
Only Period 13,14
15 2940 15 2940 0 Rp YES
-
16 0 15,16 2940 1 Rp YES
-
17 4500 15,16,17 7440 2 Rp NO
9.000
Only Period 15,16
4.189
17 4500 17 4500 0 Rp YES

-
18 0 17,18 4500 1 Rp YES
-
19 4830 17,18,19 9330 2 Rp NO
9.660
Only Period 17,18
19 4830 19 4830 0 Rp YES
-
20 0 19,20 4830 1 Rp YES
-
21 4806 19,20,21 9636 2 Rp NO
9.612
Only Period 19,20
21 4806 21 4806 0 Rp YES
-
22 0 21,22 4806 1 Rp YES
-
23 3930 21,22,23 8736 2 Rp NO
7.860
4.190
23 3930 23 3930 0 Rp YES

-
24 0 23,24 3930 1 Rp YES
-
25 0 23,24,25 3930 2 Rp YES
-
26 0 23,24,25,26 3930 3 Rp YES
-
page.
4.191
Period (Week) -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Schedule Receipt
Lot Sizing 3780 0 3558 0 4320 0 4320 0 4476 0 4500 0
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
4026 0 4320 0 2940 0 4500 0 4830 0 4806 0 3930 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
4026 0 4320 0 2940 0 4500 0 4830 0 4806 0 3930 0 0 0
4026 0 4320 0 2940 0 4500 0 4830 0 4806 0 3930 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 4320 0 2940 0 4500 0 4830 0 4806 0 3930 0 0 0 0

Holding Cost 0 Rp -
4.192
 Item E
.
− ≤
𝐻
.
− ≤ = .
4.193

-2 15120 -2 15120 0 Rp YES
-
-1 2520 -2,-1 17640 1 Rp YES
-
0 14232 -2,-1,0 31872 2 Rp NO
28.464
0 14232 0 14232 0 Rp YES

-
1 2372 0,1 16604 1 Rp YES
-
2 17280 0,1,2 33884 2 Rp NO
34.560
2 17280 2 17280 0 Rp YES

-
3 2880 2,3 20160 1 Rp YES
-
4 17280 2,3,4 37440 2 Rp NO
34.560
4.194
4 17280 4 17280 0 Rp YES

-
5 2880 4,5 20160 1 Rp YES
-
6 17904 4,5,6 38064 2 Rp NO
35.808
6 17904 6 17904 0 Rp YES

-
7 2984 6,7 20888 1 Rp YES
-
8 18000 6,7,8 38888 2 Rp NO
36.000
8 18000 8 18000 0 Rp YES

-
9 3000 8,9 21000 1 Rp YES
-
10 16104 8,9,10 37104 2 Rp NO
32.208
4.195
10 16104 10 16104 0 Rp YES

-
11 2684 10,11 18788 1 Rp YES
-
12 17280 10,11,12 36068 2 Rp NO
34.560
12 17280 12 17280 0 Rp YES

-
13 2880 12,13 20160 1 Rp YES
-
14 11760 12,13,14 31920 2 Rp NO
23.520
14 11760 14 11760 0 Rp YES

-
15 1960 14,15 13720 1 Rp YES
-
16 18000 14,15,16 31720 2 Rp NO
36.000
4.196
16 18000 16 18000 0 Rp YES

-
17 3000 16,17 21000 1 Rp YES
-
18 19320 16,17,18 40320 2 Rp NO
38.640
18 19320 18 19320 0 Rp YES

-
19 3220 18,19 22540 1 Rp YES
-
20 19224 18,19,20 41764 2 Rp NO
38.448
20 19224 20 19224 0 Rp YES

-
21 3204 20,21 22428 1 Rp YES
-
22 15720 20,21,22 38148 2 Rp NO
31.440
4.197
22 15720 22 15720 0 Rp YES

-
23 2620 22,23 18340 1 Rp YES
-
24 0 22,23,24 18340 2 Rp YES
-
25 0 22,23,24,25 18340 3 Rp YES
-
26 0 22,23,24,25,26 0 0 Rp YES
-
page.
4.198
Period (Week) -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Schedule Receipt
Beginning Inventory 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lot Sizing 17640 0 16604 0 20160 0 20160 0 20888 0 21000 0 18788
Ending Inventory 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
2684 17280 2880 11760 1960 18000 3000 19320 3220 19224 3204 15720 2620 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2684 17280 2880 11760 1960 18000 3000 19320 3220 19224 3204 15720 2620 0 0 0
0 20160 0 13720 0 21000 0 22540 0 22428 0 18340 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
20160 0 13720 0 21000 0 22540 0 22428 0 18340 0 0 0 0 0

Holding Cost 0 Rp -
4.199
 Item F
.
− ≤
𝐻
.
− ≤ = .
4.200

-1 1260 -1 1260 0 Rp YES
-
0 0 -1,0 1260 1 Rp YES
-
1 1186 -1,0,1 2446 2 Rp NO
2.372
Only period -1,0
1 1186 1 1186 0 Rp YES
-
2 0 1,2 1186 1 Rp YES
-
3 1440 1,2,3 2626 2 Rp NO
2.880
3 1440 3 1440 0 Rp YES
-
4 0 3,4 1440 1 Rp YES
-
5 1440 3,4,5 2880 2 Rp NO
2.880
4.201
Only period 3,4

5 1440 5 1440 0 Rp YES
-
6 0 5,6 1440 1 Rp YES
-
7 1492 5,6,7 2932 2 Rp NO
2.984
Only period 5,6
7 1492 7 1492 0 Rp YES
-
8 0 7,8 1492 1 Rp YES
-
9 1500 7,8,9 2992 2 Rp NO
3.000
Only period 7,8
9 1500 9 1500 0 Rp YES
-
10 0 9,10 1500 1 Rp YES
-
11 1342 9,10,11 2842 2 Rp NO
2.684
4.202
11 1342 11 1342 0 Rp YES

-
12 0 11,12 1342 1 Rp YES
-
13 1440 11,12,13 2782 2 Rp NO
2.880
Only Period 11,12
13 1440 13 1440 0 Rp YES
-
14 0 13,14 1440 1 Rp YES
-
15 980 13,14,15 2420 2 Rp NO
1.960
Only Period 13,14
15 980 15 980 0 Rp YES
-
16 0 15,16 980 1 Rp YES
-
17 1500 15,16,17 2480 2 Rp NO
3.000
Only Period 15,16
4.203
17 1500 17 1500 0 Rp YES

-
18 0 17,18 1500 1 Rp YES
-
19 1610 17,18,19 3110 2 Rp NO
3.220
Only Period 17,18
19 1610 19 1610 0 Rp YES
-
20 0 19,20 1610 1 Rp YES
-
21 1602 19,20,21 3212 2 Rp NO
3.204
Only Period 19,20
21 1602 21 1602 0 Rp YES
-
22 0 21,22 1602 1 Rp YES
-
23 1310 21,22,23 2912 2 Rp NO
2.620
Only Period 21,22
4.204
23 1310 23 1310 0 Rp YES

-
24 0 23,24 1310 1 Rp YES
-
25 0 23,24,25 1310 2 Rp YES
-
26 0 23,24,25,26 1310 3 Rp YES
-
page.
4.205
Period (Week) -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Schedule Receipt
Lot Sizing 1260 0 1186 0 1440 0 1440 0 1492 0 1500 0
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
1342 0 1440 0 980 0 1500 0 1610 0 1602 0 1310 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1342 0 1440 0 980 0 1500 0 1610 0 1602 0 1310 0 0 0
1342 0 1440 0 980 0 1500 0 1610 0 1602 0 1310 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 1440 0 980 0 1500 0 1610 0 1602 0 1310 0 0 0 0

Holding Cost 0 Rp -
4.206
4.8. Comparation of Lot Size Technique
In this report, there are several lot sizing technique that have been used. Each
technique will has own total cost. In order to minimize cost, so from several
alternatives, the lowest cost will be choosen. The comparasion of total cost in each
lot size technique as belows.
Table 4.107. Comparation of Lot Sizing Technique
Lot Sizing Technique Total Cost

LFL Rp472.800.000
POQ Rp472.800.000
LUC Rp472.800.000
LTC Rp 481.800.000
Silver Rp 472.800.000
Wagner Within Rp 472.800.000
Groff’s Algorithm Rp314.514.000
From the comparation above, it is showed that Groff’s Algorithm has lowest total
cost, so it is choosen as the best lot sizing technique. The POR for next six months
are shown on the next page.
4.207
Table 4.108. Summary of POR (Groof’s Algorithm)
Period (Week) -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
X 0 0 0 630 0 593 0 720 0 720 0 746 0 750

B 0 0 1260 0 1186 0 1440 0 1440 0 1492 0 1500 0
C 0 0 630 0 593 0 720 0 720 0 746 0 750 0
D 0 3780 0 3558 0 4320 0 4320 0 4476 0 4500 0 4026
E 17640 0 16604 0 20160 0 20160 0 20888 0 21000 0 18788 0
F 0 1260 0 1186 0 1440 0 1440 0 1492 0 1500 0 1342
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
0 671 0 720 0 490 0 750 0 805 0 801 0 655 0 0
1342 0 1440 0 980 0 1500 0 1610 0 1602 0 1310 0 0 0
671 0 720 0 490 0 750 0 805 0 801 0 655 0 0 0
0 4320 0 2940 0 4500 0 4830 0 4806 0 3930 0 0 0 0
20160 0 13720 0 21000 0 22540 0 22428 0 18340 0 0 0 0 0
0 1440 0 980 0 1500 0 1610 0 1602 0 1310 0 0 0 0
Table 4.109. Total Cost of Groff’s Algorithm Method
PART COST
X Rp 119.514.000
B Rp 39.000.000
C Rp 39.000.000
D Rp 39.000.000
E Rp 39.000.000
F Rp 39.000.000
4.208
The summary of all methods are shown as belows.
Table 4.110. Comparation of All Methods
Method Total Cost

LFL Rp 472,800,000
POQ Rp 472,800,000
LUC Rp 472,800,000
Silver Meal Rp 472,800,000
Wagner-Whitin Rp 472,800,000
LTC Rp 481,800,000
Groff's Algorithm Rp 314,514,000
The method with lowest cost will be choosen, which is Groff’s Algorithm. The
result of MRP from this method is shown on the next page.
4.209
Period -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
(Week)
X 0 0 0 630 0 593 0 720 0 720 0 746 0 750
B 0 0 1260 0 1186 0 1440 0 1440 0 1492 0 1500 0
C 0 0 630 0 593 0 720 0 720 0 746 0 750 0
D 0 3780 0 3558 0 4320 0 4320 0 4476 0 4500 0 4026
E 17640 0 16604 0 20160 0 20160 0 20888 0 2100 0 18788 0
0
F 0 1260 0 1186 0 1440 0 1440 0 1492 0 1500 0 1342
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
0 671 0 720 0 490 0 750 0 805 0 801 0 65 0 0
5
1342 0 1440 0 980 0 1500 0 1610 0 1602 0 1310 0 0 0
671 0 720 0 490 0 750 0 805 0 801 0 655 0 0 0
0 432 0 2940 0 4500 0 4830 0 4806 0 3930 0 0 0 0
0
20160 0 1372 0 2100 0 2254 0 2242 0 1834 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 8 0
0 144 0 980 0 1500 0 1610 0 1602 0 1310 0 0 0 0
0
The result of this MRP will be used for CRP calculation.
4.210
CHAPTER V
CONCLUSION
Master Requirements Planning (MRP) is a technique used to plan production of

subassemblies, components, and raw materials to support Master Production
Schedule (MPS). The input of MRP are MPS, Product Structure/BOM, and
Inventory Status Records. And the output of this MRP is Purchase and Production
Plan.
In this report, there are several lot sizing technique conducted, such as LFL, POQ,
LUC, LTC, Silver Meal, Wagner-Whitin (WW), and Groff’s Algorithm. And then,
there are calculation of holding and order cost conducted for all lot sizing technique.
At the end, the lowest cost from all lot sizing technique is Groff’s Algorithm. The
total cost is Rp314.514.000. And then, the POR has been calculated by using the
Groff’s Algorithm lot sizing. The result are shown in Ch 4 Data Analysis.
4.211
REFERENCE
Gallego, G., (2001). Production Management Lecture 5. Retrieved November 15th,

2017 from http://www.columbia.edu/~gmg2/4000/pdf/lect_05.pdf
Moustakis, V. (2000). MATERIAL REQUIREMENTS PLANNING. Engineering

Technical University of Crete. Retrieved November 15th, 2017 from
http://www.adi.pt/docs/innoregio_MRP-en.pdf

4.212
TABLE OF CONTENTS
CHAPTER I ..................................................................................................................... 5.2
INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................... 5.2
1.1 Background ...................................................................................................... 5.2
1.2 Objectives .............................................................................................................. 5.3
1.3 Tools and Equipment(s)......................................................................................... 5.3
1.4 Steps ...................................................................................................................... 5.3
CHAPTER II.................................................................................................................... 5.4
LITERATURE STUDY................................................................................................... 5.4
2.1 Rough Cut Capacity Planning (RCCP).................................................................. 5.4
2.2 Capacity Requirements Planning (CRP) ............................................................... 5.6
2.3 Capacity-Load Relationship .................................................................................. 5.7
2.4 Capacity Requirement Planning System ............................................................... 5.8
2.4.1. CRP Input..................................................................................................... 5.8
2.4.2. CRP Process ...................................................................................................... 5.9
2.4.3. CRP Output .................................................................................................. 5.9
2.5 Balancing Capacity and Load .............................................................................. 5.10
2.6 The Advantages and Disadvantages of CRP ....................................................... 5.12
2.7 Capacity Requirement Planning Analysis ........................................................... 5.13
CHAPTER III ................................................................................................................ 5.14
DATA COLLECTION .................................................................................................. 5.14
3.1. Product Structure ........................................................................................... 5.14
3.2. Bill of Materials ............................................................................................. 5.14
3.3. Routing File ................................................................................................... 5.15
3.4. Revised MPS.................................................................................................. 5.16
3.5. Planned Order Released (POR)...................................................................... 5.17
CHAPTER IV ................................................................................................................ 5.18
DATA ANALYSIS ........................................................................................................ 5.18
4.1 Routing Data ........................................................................................................ 5.18
4.2. Bill of Capacity................................................................................................... 5.19
4.3. Total Required Capacity ..................................................................................... 5.19
4.4. Capacity Requirements Planning (CRP) ............................................................ 5.21
CHAPTER V ................................................................................................................. 5.61
CONCLUSION .............................................................................................................. 5.61
REFERENCE ................................................................................................................. 5.62
5.1
CHAPTER I
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background
In production and project management, a bottleneck is one of the process in a chain
management, such that its limited capacity reduces the capacity of whole chain. The
result of having a bottleneck are stalls in production, supply overstock, pressure
from customers and low employee morale. Almost every system has a bottleneck,
even if it is a minor one. If every system was running at full capacity, at least one
machine would be accumulating processes. Identifying bottlenecks is critical for
improving efficiency in the production line because it allows the company to
determine the area where accumulation occurs. The machine or process that
accumulates the longest queue is usually bottleneck, however this isn’t always the
case. Bottlenecks can be found through identifying the areas where accumulation
occurs, evaluating the throughput, assessing whether each machine is being used at
full capacity and finding the machine with the high wait time.
The throughput of all products processed is controlled by bottlenecks. Work centers

need to be scheduled at a rate to prevent bottlenecks. To eliminate bottlenecks, a
time buffer inventory should be established by using Capacity Requirement
Planning (CRP). The progressive number of Industrial companies are forced to re-
organize of capacity planning as nowadays competitive environment renders
traditional methods. Capacity planning plays a key role in the business such as
improving the due date observance and shortening delivery time and precondition.
The module makes easy to plan capacity requirements and update the production
plan. CRP is able to build a production scheduled that consistent with the spare
capacity and materials needed for smooth and timely manufacturing.
A company uses a Rough-Cut Capacity Planning (RCCP) technique to determine

whether a proposed MPS is feasible. Rough-Cut Capacity Planning (RCCP)
techniques use data from the proposed MPS. Capacity Requirements Planning
(CRP) uses data from MRP to calculate workloads for critical work centers based
5.2
on open shop orders and planned shop orders. Work begins on open shop orders
while planned shop orders are scheduled to be done by each work center and time
period.
1.2 Objectives
 To calculate the total setup and run time in POR calculations

 To sum up the total requirement capacity
 To compare whether the available capacity fulfill the required capacity

 Microsoft Excel is used for the calculation
1.4 Steps
 Calculating process time computation each part and work center.
 Calculating Rough Cut Capacity Requirements by each work center and time
 Define the required capacity by Planned Order Released (POR)
 Define the total required capacity
 Compare the available capacity with required capacity
 Conclude the results
5.3
CHAPTER II
LITERATURE STUDY
2.1 Rough Cut Capacity Planning (RCCP)

Rough Cut Capacity Planning determines the capacity needed to create an MPS.
Horizon planning is the same as MPS, usually one to three years. The most common
time buckets are one week and revisions are typically performed weekly or
monthly. Capacity is depicted in terms of human and / or machine hours with work
centers. As with MPS in conjunction with final product specifications, RCCP may
consider changes to the product mix. However, RCCP does not take into account
the availability of ready-made components and ongoing storage or work, a brief
description that the required capacity may be incorrect. Another potential source of
error is the MPS does not accurately reflect the effect of lot size.
RCCP is used to make decisions about capacity adjustments in the middle range.
Decisions may involve adjusting machine standards, subcontracting arrangements,
or workers relocation. The techniques used in RCCP consist of bill of capacity and
time-phased bills of capacity.
Rough Cut Capacity Planning (RCCP) is the second sequence of priority-capacity

planning hierarchies that play a role in developing MPS. RCCP validates the MPS
which also ranks second in the production priority planning hierarchy. In order to
establish certain specific sources, especially those expected to be potential
bottlenecks, is sufficient to implement MPS. Basically RCCP is defined as the
conversion process of the production plan and / or MPS into capacity requirements
related to critical resources such as: labor, machinery and equipment, warehouse
capacity, capability of material and parts suppliers, and financial resources.
RCCP is similar to Resource Requirements Planning (RRP), except that RCCP is

more detailed than RRP in some cases, such as: RCCP is disaggregated into item
or stockkeeping level; RCCP is disaggregated based on daily or weekly time
periods; and RCCP considers more production resources.
5.4
Basically there are four steps needed to implement RCCP, namely:
1. Obtain information about production plans from MPS.
2. Obtaining information about product structure and lead times.
3. Determine the bill of resources.
4. Calculate specific resource requirements and create an RCCP report.
This RCCP (rough capacity planning) is included in long-term capacity planning.

The RCCP determines the capacity requirements required to implement the MPS.
Horizon time equals MPS, usually 1 to 3 years. There are three RCCP techniques:
1. Capacity Planning Using Overall Factor Approach (CPOF)

CPOF requires three inputs namely MPS, the total time required to produce a
product and time source proprocess. CPOF multiplies the total time of each
family to the number of MPS to obtain the total time it takes the factory to reach
the MPS. This total time is then divided into the time of use of each source by
multiplying the total time to the proportion of resource usage.
The calculations used in RCCP CPOF techniques are:
𝑖 𝑖
Machine Load = ℎ𝑖
(2-1)
Run Time = Total machine load at each work center (2-2)
Work center setup time = Maximum machine setup time at work center (2-3)
Setup time
Waktu proses =  Run Time (2-4)
Averagelot size
𝑖
Proportion = (2-5)
𝑖
5.5
Total Capacity Requirement=Number of MPS per period x total Process time
(2-6)
Total Capacity Requirement each Work Center = Proportion x Total Capacity
Requirement
(2-7)
2. Bill of Labor Approach (BOLA)

The required capacity amount is obtained by multiplying the time of each
component listed on the labor list by the number of products from MPS.
3. Resource Profile Approach (RPA)
It is the most detailed, but not as detailed, capacity planning planning
technique (Capacity Requirements Planning, CRP).
2.2 Capacity Requirements Planning (CRP)

Capacity Requirements Planning determines the capacity needed to create a
material requirements plan. Specifically, the planning horizon is the year, time
buckets are weeks, and revisions are made weekly or monthly. Projection of the
capacity is between workers and / or machine hours with work centers.
MRP, when used on CRP as the base input, considers on hand inventories of
components in determining the need for planned orders. In addition, information
about the open production order of the open file order is used. So, CRP is clean
planning. Therefore, unlike resource planning and RCCP, CRP considers the
availability of inventory from components. In addition, as data on the planning and
availability of orders are used, the specific effect of lot sizing is on the number of
setups and the periods in which the existing capacity should be considered. MRP
assumes that what is scheduled is applicable, regardless of capacity constraints.
Sometimes this assumption is valid, but sometimes it can not be fulfilled.
Capacity Requirements Planning (CRP) tests these assumptions and identifies areas
that are overloaded and under loaded, so planners can take appropriate action. CRP
compares the loads assigned to each work center through open and planned orders
5.6
created by the MRP, with the capacity available at each work center within each
time period of the planning horizon. Unlike MRP systems that create new planned
orders to avoid future material or item shortages, CRP systems do not create,
reschedule, or delete any orders.
CRP is a function of determining, measuring, and adjusting the capacity or process
level to determine the amount of labor and machine resources required to carry out
production. CRP is a detailed capacity calculation technique required by MRP. CRP
verifies the availability of capacity adequacy during the planning range.
The following data are required to perform CRP calculations:
- BOMB
- The parent data of each component
- MPS for each component
- Routing each component
- Work Center Master File
Based on CRP, the next process is to calculate the MRP and then recapitulated into
an order implementation plan (Planned Order Release).
2.3 Capacity-Load Relationship

The main purpose of CRP is to show the comparison between the burden set at the
work centers through the existing work order and the capacity of each work center
over a given period of time. Through the identification of overloads or underloads,
if any, re-planning can be done to eliminate the situation in order to achieve a
balance of load and capacity. If the order arrival stream exceeds capacity, the load
will increase, which is indicated by the inventory that is in the unprocessed work
queue in front of the work center. Conversely, if the order arrival flow is less than
the existing capacity, the load (pending order for processing) will decrease.
The purpose of capacity planning at the third level of the capacity planning
hierarchy is to seek to jointly manage the incoming work orders and / or capacity
of the work center to achieve a steady or balanced flow. If the load increases, which
is indicated by the number of queues, then the work center lead time will be longer.
Handling the relationship between capacity and load is based on system planning
5.7
and implementation capabilities to adjust the order arrival rate and capacity. The
unit of measurement of the burden and the most capacity uses hours of work during
a certain time interval.
2.4 Capacity Requirement Planning System

In the larger MRP II system, as a capacity planning system, CRP has input, process,
output, and feedback. The elements of the CRP system are as follows:
2.4.1. CRP Input

 Schedule of planned factory order releases, this schedule is one of the
outputs of MRP. CRP has two main sources of data load: (1) scheduled
receipts (synonyms: open orders) containing order data due date, order
quantity, operation completed, operations remaining, and (2) planned order
releases containing planned-order data release date, planned order receipt
date, planned order quantity. Other sources such as product rework, quality
recalls, engineering prototypes, excees scraps, etc. should be translated into
one of two types of orders used by the CRP.
 Work order status: this status information is provided for all existing open
orders with the operations still to be completed, the work center involved,
and the estimated time.
 Routing data: provide the planned route for factory orders through
production processes with estimated operating time. Each part, assembly,
and product created has a unique routing, consisting of one or more
operations. The information required for CRP is: operation number,
operation, planned work center, possible alternate work center, standard
setup time, standard run time per unit, tooling needed at each work center,
and others. Routing provides clues to the CRP process as well as the BOM
provide guidance on the MRP process.
 Work center data: this data relates to each production work center, including
resources, standards of utilization and efficiency, and capacity. Data center
elements of work are: identification and description, number of machines or
5.8
work stations, number of working days per period, number of shifts
scheduled per working day, number of working hours per shift, utilization
factor, efficiency factor, queue time average, average waiting and moving
time.
2.4.2. CRP Process

 Calculate work center capacity: The capacity of the work center is
determined on the basis of machine and human resources, clock operating
factors, efficiency, and utilization. The capacity of the work center is usually
determined manually. Included in the determination of work center capacity
are: identification and definition of work center, as well as work center
capacity calculation.
 Determine the load: The load calculation at each work center in each time
period is performed using backward scheduling, using infinite loading,
doubling the load for each item through the quantity of the scheduled item
within a period of time. Thus the load is assigned to each work center for
future periods accumulated based on open orders (scheduled receipts) and
planned factory orders released. This process usually uses a computer.
 Balances capacity and load: When there appears to be an imbalance between
capacity and load, one of the capacity or load must be adjusted again to
obtain a balanced schedule. If routine adjustments are not sufficient,
rescheduling of the MRP or MPS output is required. This is usually a human
judgment and done iteratively (repeatedly / repeatedly) along with the work
center load report output from CRP. In other words the process will be
repeated until it gets an acceptable load.
2.4.3. CRP Output
 Work Center Load Report: This report shows the relationship between
capacity and load. If this report shows an imbalance between capacity and
load, the overall CRP process may need to be repeated. The work center
load profile is often displayed in the form of bar graphs which are very
useful to see the relationship between projected load and available capacity,
5.9
while also identifying whether overloads or underloads occur. CRP usually
produces a work center load profile for each work center identified in the
factory. Comparison between load and capacity can also be displayed in
column format.
 Revised schedule of planned factory order releases. This revised timeline
illustrates that the output of the MRP is adjusted to the specific release dates
for factory orders based on capacity limitations. The improvement of
schedule of planned factory order releases is indirect output of the CRP
process because they are the result of human judgments based on the
analysis of the work center load reports. One possible adjustment option, in
addition to capacity change, is to change the plannned start dates made
through the MRP plan. This has the effect of shifting the load between
periods of time to achieve a better balance.
2.5 Balancing Capacity and Load

CRP allows to balance the load to capacity. Here are five basic actions according
to Gaspersz which may be taken if there is a difference (imbalance) between the
existing capacity and the required load. These measures may be carried out
individually or in various forms of combinations tailored to the actual
circumstances of the manufacturing industry.
1. Increasing Capacity
 Add extra shifts.
 Scheduling overtime or working on weekends.
 Add equipment and / or personnel.
 Subcontracted one or more shop orders.
2. Reducing Capacity
 Eliminate shifts or reduce the length of shifts.
5.10
 Reassign personnel temporarily (JIT suggests the use of this time
for investment in labor education, or maintenance of equipment
and facilities).
3. Increase Load
 Early order release (release orders early) from the scheduled.
 Increase lot size (lot size).
 Increase MPS.
 Create items that are normally purchased or subcontracted.
4. Reducing Load (Reducing Load)

 Subcontract the job to an outside supplier (buy some items that
under normal circumstances the item was made).
 Reduced lot size (lot size).
 Reduce MPS.
 With holding work in production control (issuing orders more
slowly).
 Increase delivery lead times.
5. Redistributing Load
 Using alternate work centers.
 Using alternate routings.
 Adjust the start date of operation forward or backward (earlier or
later).
 Hold some jobs in production controls to slow manufacturing
manufacturing orders.
 Fixed MPS.
5.11
2.6 The Advantages and Disadvantages of CRP
There are several advantages and disadvantages of CRP according to Gaspersz,
namely:
Advantages of CRP:
 Provides time-phased visibility of capacity and load imbalances.
 Confirm that enough capacity exists on a cumulative basis along the
planning horizon.
 Consider the specific lot size and routings.
 Uses faster lead time estimates than MRP.
 Eliminate erratic lead times by providing data to smooth the load
throughout the work centers.
Weaknesses or Limitations of CRP:

 Only applicable in the job shop manufacturing environment.
 Needs a lot of calculations, so it must use the computer.
 Usually only use backward scheduling scheduling technique so it
does not show where slack times might be used for better balance.
 Requires a lot of input data.
 Often produce detailed calculations that are misleading, especially
the planned queue times.
 Unable to provide precise detailed information in day-to-day periods
so that short-term decisions become difficult to take appropriately.
 It does not clearly indicate the effect of MPS improvements on the
balance achieved, so it may make the situation stay ugly.
However, in the absence of CRP analysis, the following consequences may arise:
bottlenecks, work in inventory processes being high, waiting times become longer,
delays in delivery and product shortages, inefficient use of resources, productivity
down and others.
5.12
2.7 Capacity Requirement Planning Analysis
CRP analysis requires separate calculations with respect to setup time and run time
requirements. CRP analysis is more detailed than RCCP, when CRP analysis
requires information about standard setup time and standard run time per unit of
items to be created. Calculation of operation time per unit in CRP analysis using
the following formula:
𝑖 𝑖
𝑖 𝑖 𝑖 = +
𝑖 𝑖
𝑖 𝑖 /𝐿
= 𝑖
+𝐴 𝐿 𝑖𝑧
(2-8)
Basically there are several steps needed to carry out CRP analysis, namely:
1. Obtain information about planned order release from MRP.
2. Obtain information about standard run time per unit and standard setup
time per lot size.
3. Calculate the required capacity of each work center.
4. Creating CRP reports.
5.13
CHAPTER III
DATA COLLECTION
In this report, there will be a detail analysis towards the capacity required by MRP.
There are several inputs for CRP calculations such as belows.
3.1.Product Structure
Below is the product structure in order to produce product X. There are several
items, such as item B, C, D, E, and F.
Figure 3.1 Product Structure
3.2.Bill of Materials
From the product structure and BOM, it is showed that in producing one product X,
it need 2 items B, 1 item C, 6 items D, 28 items E, and 2 items F.
Table 3.1. Bill of Materials (BOM)
Part/Item Quantity
X 1
B 2
C 1
D 6
E 28
F 2
5.14
3.3.Routing File
Below are shown the routing data files of each item.
Item Work Center Setup Time (min Run Time EPQ

Assembly 0 1,2 1
X
Inspection 0 1,6 1
101 15 1,55
102 30 1,68
B 103 20 2,05 30
104 25 0,94
106 0 1,06
101 15 2,088
102 20 1
C 25
103 10 1,25
105 0 2,4
101 12 0,98
102 20 1,36
D 104 40 0,95 24
106 10 1,82
107 15 1,5
102 10 0,72
104 10 0,6
E 20
107 15 0,48
108 0 0,81
101 10 1,5
104 10 1,36
F 105 30 2,1 25
106 15 1,1
108 0 1,45
5.15
3.4.Revised MPS
Through CRP, there are comparation between required capacity planning and
available capacity. After revise the MPS, the result are shown as belows.
Table 3.3. Revised MPS
Month Sep-17 Oct-17 Oct-17 Nov-17

(2) &
Nov-
17 (4)
WEEK 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Unit 377 323 270 323 360 360 360 360 371 375 375 375
Produced /
Week
Table 3.3. Revised MPS (continued)
Nov- Dec-17 Jan-18 Jan- Feb-18

17 18
(4) (3)
& &
Dec- Feb-
17 18
(1) (3)
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
311 360 360 360 240 250 375 375 375 430 437 364 437 218
5.16
3.5.Planned Order Released (POR)
From the MRP calculation, the best method are choosen which is Groff’s Algorithm method choosen and the result of POR are shown
below.
Period -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
(Week)
X 0 0 0 630 0 593 0 720 0 720 0 746 0 750
B 0 0 1260 0 1186 0 1440 0 1440 0 1492 0 1500 0
C 0 0 630 0 593 0 720 0 720 0 746 0 750 0
D 0 3780 0 3558 0 4320 0 4320 0 4476 0 4500 0 4026
E 17640 0 16604 0 20160 0 20160 0 20888 0 2100 0 18788 0
0
F 0 1260 0 1186 0 1440 0 1440 0 1492 0 1500 0 1342
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
0 671 0 720 0 490 0 750 0 805 0 801 0 65 0 0
5
1342 0 1440 0 980 0 1500 0 1610 0 1602 0 1310 0 0 0
671 0 720 0 490 0 750 0 805 0 801 0 655 0 0 0
0 432 0 2940 0 4500 0 4830 0 4806 0 3930 0 0 0 0
0
20160 0 1372 0 2100 0 2254 0 2242 0 1834 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 8 0
0 144 0 980 0 1500 0 1610 0 1602 0 1310 0 0 0 0
0
5.17
CHAPTER IV
DATA ANALYSIS
4.1 Routing Data

The function of this routing data is to calculate requirement standard run hours
(SRH) for producing product X. The formula of SRH is as belows. For example
part X Assembly, the calculation of SRH as belows. This SRH will be multplied by
quantity, so the requirement SRH calculated.
𝑖
= + 𝑖
𝐸
= + , = , 𝑖
= × 𝑖𝑦
Below are shown the routing data to producing product X.

Setup Run
Work Req. SRH
Part/Item Time Time EPQ SRH Quantity
Center (min)
(min) (min)
Assembly 0 1,2 1 1,20 1 1,20
X
Inspection 0 1,6 1 1,60 1 1,60
101 15 1,55 30 2,05 2 4,10
102 30 1,68 30 2,68 2 5,36
B 103 20 2,05 30 2,72 2 5,43
104 25 0,94 30 1,77 2 3,55
106 0 1,06 30 1,06 2 2,12
101 15 2,088 25 2,69 1 2,69
102 20 1 25 1,80 1 1,80
C
103 10 1,25 25 1,65 1 1,65
105 0 2,4 25 2,40 1 2,40
101 12 0,98 24 1,48 6 8,88
102 20 1,36 24 2,19 6 13,16
D 104 40 0,95 24 2,62 6 15,70
106 10 1,82 24 2,24 6 13,42
107 15 1,5 24 2,13 6 12,75
5.18
Table 4.1. Routing Data (continued)
E 102 10 0,72 20 1,22 28 34,16
104 10 0,6 20 1,10 28 30,80
107 15 0,48 20 1,23 28 34,44
108 0 0,81 20 0,81 28 22,68
F 101 10 1,5 25 1,90 2 3,80
104 10 1,36 25 1,76 2 3,52
105 30 2,1 25 3,30 2 6,60
106 15 1,1 25 1,70 2 3,40
108 0 1,45 25 1,45 2 2,90
4.2. Bill of Capacity

After determining the routing data, now the bill of capacity of each workstation is
calculated as belows.
Table 4.2. Bill of Capacity
SRH Required for Product X
Work Center (mins)
Assembly 1,2
Inspection 1,6
101 19,47
102 54,48
103 7,08
104 53,57
105 9,00
106 18,94
107 47,19
108 25,58
4.3. Total Required Capacity

After the Bill of Capacity has been calculated, now the total required capacity could
be found. From data collection, it is already known the unit produced in each week
as belows.
To calculate the required capacity by using formula as belows.
𝑖𝑦= / 𝑖 × 𝑖 /
5.19
Table 4.3. Total Required Capacity
Work Center
Week
Week 1 475,20 633,60 7709,33 21574,08 2805,00 21212,40 3564,00 7500,24 18687,24 10129,68
Week 2 406,80 542,40 6599,65 18468,72 2401,25 18159,10 3051,00 6420,66 15997,41 8671,62
Week 3 339,60 452,80 5509,44 15417,84 2004,58 15159,37 2547,00 5360,02 13354,77 7239,14
Week 4 406,80 542,40 6599,65 18468,72 2401,25 18159,10 3051,00 6420,66 15997,41 8671,62
Week 5 457,20 609,60 7417,31 20756,88 2698,75 20408,90 3429,00 7216,14 17979,39 9745,98
Week 6 457,20 609,60 7417,31 20756,88 2698,75 20408,90 3429,00 7216,14 17979,39 9745,98
Week 7 457,20 609,60 7417,31 20756,88 2698,75 20408,90 3429,00 7216,14 17979,39 9745,98
Week 8 457,20 609,60 7417,31 20756,88 2698,75 20408,90 3429,00 7216,14 17979,39 9745,98
Week 9 464,40 619,20 7534,12 21083,76 2741,25 20730,30 3483,00 7329,78 18262,53 9899,46
Week 10 468,00 624,00 7592,52 21247,20 2762,50 20891,00 3510,00 7386,60 18404,10 9976,20
Week 11 468,00 624,00 7592,52 21247,20 2762,50 20891,00 3510,00 7386,60 18404,10 9976,20
Week 12 468,00 624,00 7592,52 21247,20 2762,50 20891,00 3510,00 7386,60 18404,10 9976,20
Week 13 386,40 515,20 6268,70 17542,56 2280,83 17248,47 2898,00 6098,68 15195,18 8236,76
Week 14 450,00 600,00 7300,50 20430,00 2656,25 20087,50 3375,00 7102,50 17696,25 9592,50
Week 15 450,00 600,00 7300,50 20430,00 2656,25 20087,50 3375,00 7102,50 17696,25 9592,50
Week 16 450,00 600,00 7300,50 20430,00 2656,25 20087,50 3375,00 7102,50 17696,25 9592,50
Week 17 300,00 400,00 4867,00 13620,00 1770,83 13391,67 2250,00 4735,00 11797,50 6395,00
Week 18 315,60 420,80 5120,08 14328,24 1862,92 14088,03 2367,00 4981,22 12410,97 6727,54
Week 19 472,80 630,40 7670,39 21465,12 2790,83 21105,27 3546,00 7462,36 18592,86 10078,52
Week 20 472,80 630,40 7670,39 21465,12 2790,83 21105,27 3546,00 7462,36 18592,86 10078,52
Week 21 472,80 630,40 7670,39 21465,12 2790,83 21105,27 3546,00 7462,36 18592,86 10078,52
Week 22 516,00 688,00 8371,24 23426,40 3045,83 23033,67 3870,00 8144,20 20291,70 10999,40
5.20
Table 4.3. Total Required Capacity (continued)
Week 23 560,40 747,20 9091,56 25442,16 3307,92 25015,63 4203,00 8844,98 22037,73 11945,86
Week 24 466,80 622,40 7573,05 21192,72 2755,42 20837,43 3501,00 7367,66 18356,91 9950,62
Week 25 560,40 747,20 9091,56 25442,16 3307,92 25015,63 4203,00 8844,98 22037,73 11945,86
Week 26 279,60 372,80 4536,04 12693,84 1650,42 12481,03 2097,00 4413,02 10995,27 5960,14
For example to calculate the week 1 in workstation assembly, it is calculated bu formula as belows.
𝑖
𝑖 𝑖 𝑦= × = , × 9 = , 𝑖
𝑦
In Module III: Capacity Planning, it is showed that available capacity is enough to fulfill the required capacity. In RCCP, it is only
check whether the gross requirement already fulfilled yet or not. In next analysis, there will be a CRP analysis, to know the detail
capacity required by MRP.
4.4. Capacity Requirements Planning (CRP)

Capacity Requirement Planning is the step of verifies that sufficient available capacity meet the capacity requirement for MRP plans.
The required capacity calculated by planned order released. Since in the MRP, there are not on order data, so in this CRP calculataion,
there are not requirement capacity by released orders.
5.21
 POR Calculations
In the POR Calculations, there are two types calculations, such as Setup Time and Run Time calculation. Since the lead time is same
for each period, so start with the same period. In the table below, the setup time will be inputted based on value of POR in each item
and period.
Table 4.4. Setup Time Calculation

Week
Part -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Assembly X 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
B 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
C 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
F 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Inspection X 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
B 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
C 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
F 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5.22
Table 4.4. Setup Time Calculation (continued)
101 X 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
B 0 0 15 0 15 0 15 0 15 0 15 0 15 0 15 0
C 0 0 15 0 15 0 15 0 15 0 15 0 15 0 15 0
D 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12
E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
F 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10
Total 0 22 30 22 30 22 30 22 30 22 30 22 30 22 30 22
102 X 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
B 0 0 0 30 0 30 0 30 0 30 0 30 0 30 0 30
C 0 0 0 20 0 20 0 20 0 20 0 20 0 20 0 20
D 0 0 20 0 20 0 20 0 20 0 20 0 20 0 20 0
E 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0
F 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 10 0 30 50 30 50 30 50 30 50 30 50 30 50 30 50
103 X 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
B 0 0 0 0 20 0 20 0 20 0 20 0 20 0 20 0
C 0 0 0 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0
D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
F 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 0 0 0 0 30 0 30 0 30 0 30 0 30 0 30 0
5.23
104 X 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
B 0 0 0 0 0 25 0 25 0 25 0 25 0 25 0 25
C 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
D 0 0 0 40 0 40 0 40 0 40 0 40 0 40 0 40
E 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10
F 0 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0
Total 0 10 10 50 10 75 10 75 10 75 10 75 10 75 10 75
105 X 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
B 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
C 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
F 0 0 0 30 0 30 0 30 0 30 0 30 0 30 0 30
Total 0 0 0 30 0 30 0 30 0 30 0 30 0 30 0 30
106 X 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
B 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
C 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
D 0 0 0 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0
E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
F 0 0 0 0 15 0 15 0 15 0 15 0 15 0 15 0
Total 0 0 0 0 25 0 25 0 25 0 25 0 25 0 25 0
5.24
107 X 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
B 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
C 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
D 0 0 0 0 0 15 0 15 0 15 0 15 0 15 0 15
E 0 0 15 0 15 0 15 0 15 0 15 0 15 0 15 0
F 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 0 0 15 0 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
108 X 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
B 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
C 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
F 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5.25
Week
Part 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
X 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
B 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
C 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Assembly
D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
F 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
X 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
B 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
C 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Inspection
D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
F 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
X 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
B 15 0 15 0 15 0 15 0 15 0 15 0 0 0
C 15 0 15 0 15 0 15 0 15 0 15 0 0 0
101
D 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 0 0 0
E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
F 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 0 0 0
Total 30 22 30 22 30 22 30 22 30 22 30 0 0 0
5.26
102 X 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
B 0 30 0 30 0 30 0 30 0 30 0 30 0 0
C 0 20 0 20 0 20 0 20 0 20 0 20 0 0
D 20 0 20 0 20 0 20 0 20 0 20 0 0 0
E 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 0 0 0 0
F 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 30 50 30 50 30 50 30 50 30 50 20 50 0 0
103 X 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
B 20 0 20 0 20 0 20 0 20 0 20 0 20 0
C 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0
D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
F 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 30 0 30 0 30 0 30 0 30 0 30 0 30 0
104 X 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
B 0 25 0 25 0 25 0 25 0 25 0 25 0 25
C 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
D 0 40 0 40 0 40 0 40 0 40 0 40 0 0
E 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 0 0 0
F 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 0 0
Total 10 75 10 75 10 75 10 75 10 75 10 65 0 25
5.27
105 X 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
B 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
C 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
F 0 30 0 30 0 30 0 30 0 30 0 30 0 0
Total 0 30 0 30 0 30 0 30 0 30 0 30 0 0
106 X 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
B 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
C 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
D 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0
E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
F 15 0 15 0 15 0 15 0 15 0 15 0 15 0
Total 25 0 25 0 25 0 25 0 25 0 25 0 25 0
107 X 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
B 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
C 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
D 0 15 0 15 0 15 0 15 0 15 0 15 0 15
E 15 0 15 0 15 0 15 0 15 0 15 0 0 0
F 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 0 15
5.28
108 X 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
B 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
C 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
F 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
After calculating the setup time, now continue to calculate the run time. It is calculated by formula as belows.
𝑖 = ℎ × ℎ / 𝑖
The result of calculation can be seen on the next page.
5.29
Table 4.5. Run Time Calculation
Week
Part -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Assembly X 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
B 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
C 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
F 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Inspection X 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
B 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
C 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
F 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5.30
Table 4.5. Run Time Calculation (continued)
10 X 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 B 0 0 1953 0 1838.3 0 2232 0 2232 0 2312.6 0 2325 0 2080.1 0
C 0 0 1315.4 0 1238.1 0 1503. 0 1503.3 0 1557.6 0 1566 0 1401.0 0
4 84 36 6 48 48
D 0 3704 0 3486. 0 4233 0 4233 0 4386. 0 441 0 3945. 0 4233
.4 84 .6 .6 48 0 48 .6
E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
F 0 1890 0 1779 0 2160 0 2160 0 2238 0 225 0 2013 0 2160
0
Total 0 5594 3268.4 5265. 3076.4 6393 3735. 6393 3735.3 6624. 3870.2 666 3891 5958. 3481.1 6393
.4 4 84 84 .6 36 .6 6 48 48 0 48 48 .6
10 X 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 B 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
C 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
E 1270 0 11954. 0 14515. 0 1451 0 15039. 0 15120 0 13527. 0 14515. 0
0.8 88 2 5.2 36 36 2
F 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 1270 0 11954. 0 14515. 0 1451 0 15039. 0 15120 0 13527. 0 14515. 0
0.8 9 2 5.2 36 4 2
5.31
103 X 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
B 0 0 0 0 2431.3 0 2952 0 2952 0 3058.6 0 3075 0 2751.1 0
C 0 0 0 0 741.25 0 900 0 900 0 932.5 0 937.5 0 838.75 0
D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
F 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 0 0 0 0 3172.55 0 3852 0 3852 0 3991.1 0 4012.5 0 3589.85 0
104 X 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
B 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
C 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
D 0 0 0 3380.1 0 4104 0 4104 0 4252.2 0 4275 0 3824.7 0 4104
E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
F 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 0 0 0 3380.1 0 4104 0 4104 0 4252.2 0 4275 0 3824.7 0 4104
5.32
105 X 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
B 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
C 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
F 0 0 0 2490.6 0 3024 0 3024 0 3133.2 0 3150 0 2818.2 0 3024
Total 0 0 0 2490.6 0 3024 0 3024 0 3133.2 0 3150 0 2818.2 0 3024
106 X 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
B 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
C 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
F 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
107 X 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
B 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
C 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
D 0 0 0 0 0 6480 0 6480 0 6714 0 6750 0 6039 0 6480
E 0 0 7969.92 0 9676.8 0 9676.8 0 10026.24 0 10080 0 9018.24 0 9676.8 0
F 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 0 0 7969.92 0 9676.8 6480 9676.8 6480 10026.24 6714 10080 6750 9018.24 6039 9676.8 6480
5.33
108 X 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
B 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
C 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
F 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Week
Par 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 2 2
t 5 6
Assembly X 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
B 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
C 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
F 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5.34
Inspectio X 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
n B 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
C 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
F 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
101 X 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
B 2232 0 1519 0 2325 0 2495.5 0 2483.1 0 2030.5 0 0 0
C 1503.3 0 1023.1 0 1566 0 1680.84 0 1672.48 0 1367.6 0 0 0
6 2 8 4
D 0 2881. 0 441 0 4733. 0 4709.8 0 3851. 0 0 0 0
2 0 4 8 4
E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
F 0 1470 0 225 0 2415 0 2403 0 1965 0 0 0 0
0
Total 3735.3 4351. 2542.1 666 3891 7148. 4176.34 7112.8 4155.58 5816. 3398.1 0 0 0
6 2 2 0 4 8 8 4 4
5.35
102 X 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
B 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
C 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
E 9878.4 0 15120 0 16228. 0 16148.1 0 13204.8 0 0 0 0 0
8 6
F 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 9878.4 0 15120 0 16228. 0 16148.1 0 13204.8 0 0 0 0 0
8 6
103 X 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
B 2952 0 2009 0 3075 0 3300.5 0 3284.1 0 2685.5 0 0 0
C 900 0 612.5 0 937.5 0 1006.25 0 1001.25 0 818.75 0 0 0
D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
F 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 3852 0 2621.5 0 4012.5 0 4306.75 0 4285.35 0 3504.2 0 0 0
5
5.36
104 X 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
B 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
C 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
D 0 2793 0 427 0 4588. 0 4565.7 0 3733. 0 0 0 0
5 5 5
E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
F 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 0 2793 0 427 0 4588. 0 4565.7 0 3733. 0 0 0 0
5 5 5
105 X 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
B 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
C 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
F 0 2058 0 315 0 3381 0 3364.2 0 2751 0 0 0 0
0
Total 0 2058 0 315 0 3381 0 3364.2 0 2751 0 0 0 0
0
106 X 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
B 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
C 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
F 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5.37
107 X 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
B 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
C 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
D 0 4410 0 675 0 7245 0 7209 0 5895 0 0 0 0
0
E 6585.6 0 10080 0 10819. 0 10765.4 0 8803.2 0 0 0 0 0
2 4
F 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 6585.6 4410 10080 675 10819. 7245 10765.4 7209 8803.2 5895 0 0 0 0
0 2 4
108 X 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
B 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
C 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
F 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
 Total Requirements Capacity
After calculated the total setup and run time in each workstation and period, now sum up all to get the value of requirements capacity
as belows.
5.38
Table 4.6. Total Requirements Capacity
Work Week
Center -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Assembl 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
y
Inspectio 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
n
101 0 5616 3298.4 5287. 3106.4 6415 3765. 6415 3765.3 6646. 3900.2 66 3921 5980. 3511.1 6415
.4 4 84 84 .6 36 .6 6 48 48 82 48 48 .6
102 1271 0 11984. 50 14545. 50 1454 50 15069. 50 15150 50 13557. 50 14545. 50
0.8 88 2 5.2 36 36 2
103 0 0 0 0 3202.5 0 3882 0 3882 0 4021.1 0 4042.5 0 3619.8 0
5 5
104 0 10 10 3430. 10 4179 10 4179 10 4327. 10 43 10 3899. 10 4179
1 2 50 7
105 0 0 0 2520. 0 3054 0 3054 0 3163. 0 31 0 2848. 0 3054
6 2 80 2
106 0 0 0 0 25 0 25 0 25 0 25 0 25 0 25 0
107 0 0 7984.9 0 9691.8 6495 9691. 6495 10041. 6729 10095 67 9033.2 6054 9691.8 6495
2 8 24 65 4
108 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5.39
Table 4.6. Total Requirements Capacity (continued)
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3765.36 4373.2 2572.12 6682 3921 7170.4 4206.34 7134.88 4185.588 5838.4 3428.14 0 0 0
9908.4 50 15150 50 16258.8 50 16178.16 50 13234.8 50 20 50 0 0
3882 0 2651.5 0 4042.5 0 4336.75 0 4315.35 0 3534.25 0 30 0
10 2868 10 4350 10 4663.5 10 4640.7 10 3808.5 10 65 0 25
0 2088 0 3180 0 3411 0 3394.2 0 2781 0 30 0 0
25 0 25 0 25 0 25 0 25 0 25 0 25 0
6600.6 4425 10095 6765 10834.2 7260 10780.44 7224 8818.2 5910 15 15 0 15
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
 Comparing Available and Required Capacity
After calculated the required capacity, now comparing it with available capacity. To check whether it is already fulfill the requirements
or not, below are shown the comparation between available and required capacity.
𝑦= 𝑖 𝑖 𝑦− 𝑖 𝑖𝑦
5.40
Table 4.7. Assembly Workstation
REGULAR TIME OVER TIME REQUIR CUMMULATI

TOTAL TOTAL
WEE Working ED INVENTORY VE
WORKE HOU WORKE HOU (HOUR (MINUTE STATUS
K Days CAPACI (MIN) INVENTORY
RS RS RS RS S) S)
TY (MIN) (MIN)
COVER
-3 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 3600
ED
COVER
-2 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 7200
ED
COVER
-1 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 10800
ED
COVER
0 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 14400
ED
COVER
1 7 1 7 1 3 70 4200 0 4200 18600
ED
COVER
2 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 22200
ED
COVER
3 5 1 7 1 3 50 3000 0 3000 25200
ED
COVER
4 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 28800
ED
COVER
5 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 32400
ED
COVER
6 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 36000
ED
COVER
7 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 39600
ED
COVER
8 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 43200
ED
5.41
Table 4.7. Assembly Workstation (continued)
9 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 46800 COVERED

10 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 50400 COVERED
11 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 54000 COVERED
12 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 57600 COVERED
13 5 1 7 1 3 50 3000 0 3000 60600 COVERED
14 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 64200 COVERED
15 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 67800 COVERED
16 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 71400 COVERED
17 4 1 7 1 3 40 2400 0 2400 73800 COVERED
18 4 1 7 1 3 40 2400 0 2400 76200 COVERED
19 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 79800 COVERED
20 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 83400 COVERED
21 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 87000 COVERED
22 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 90600 COVERED
23 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 94200 COVERED
24 5 1 7 1 3 50 3000 0 3000 97200 COVERED
25 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 100800 COVERED
26 3 1 7 1 3 30 1800 0 1800 102600 COVERED
Since in all period, the available capacity fulfill all required capacity, so the status is “Covered”.
5.42
Table 4.8. Inspection Workstation
WEE Working REGULAR TIME OVER TIME TOTAL TOTAL REQUIR INVENTORY CUMMULATI STATUS
K Days WORKE HOU WORKE HOU (HOUR (MINUTE ED (MIN) VE
RS RS RS RS S) S) CAPACI INVENTORY
TY (MIN) (MIN)
-3 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 3600 COVER
ED
-2 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 7200 COVER
ED
-1 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 10800 COVER
ED
0 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 14400 COVER
ED
1 7 1 7 1 3 70 4200 0 4200 18600 COVER
ED
2 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 22200 COVER
ED
3 5 1 7 1 3 50 3000 0 3000 25200 COVER
ED
4 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 28800 COVER
ED
5 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 32400 COVER
ED
6 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 36000 COVER
ED
7 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 39600 COVER
ED
8 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 43200 COVER
ED
5.43
Table 4.8. Inspection Workstation (continued)
9 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 46800 COVERED

10 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 50400 COVERED
11 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 54000 COVERED
12 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 57600 COVERED
13 5 1 7 1 3 50 3000 0 3000 60600 COVERED
14 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 64200 COVERED
15 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 67800 COVERED
16 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 71400 COVERED
17 4 1 7 1 3 40 2400 0 2400 73800 COVERED
18 4 1 7 1 3 40 2400 0 2400 76200 COVERED
19 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 79800 COVERED
20 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 83400 COVERED
21 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 87000 COVERED
22 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 90600 COVERED
23 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 94200 COVERED
24 5 1 7 1 3 50 3000 0 3000 97200 COVERED
25 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 100800 COVERED
26 3 1 7 1 3 30 1800 0 1800 102600 COVERED
5.44
TY (MIN) (MIN)
-3 6 2 7 1 3 102 6120 0 6120 6120 COVER
ED
-2 6 2 7 1 3 102 6120 5616.4 504 6624 COVER
ED
-1 6 2 7 1 3 102 6120 3298.44 2822 9445 COVER
ED
0 6 2 7 1 3 102 6120 5287.84 832 10277 COVER
ED
1 7 2 7 1 3 119 7140 3106.484 4034 14311 COVER
ED
2 6 2 7 1 3 102 6120 6415.6 -296 14015 COVER
ED
3 5 2 7 1 3 85 5100 3765.36 1335 15350 COVER
ED
4 6 2 7 1 3 102 6120 6415.6 -296 15054 COVER
ED
5 6 2 7 1 3 102 6120 3765.36 2355 17409 COVER
ED
6 6 2 7 1 3 102 6120 6646.48 -526 16882 COVER
ED
7 6 2 7 1 3 102 6120 3900.248 2220 19102 COVER
ED
8 6 2 7 1 3 102 6120 6682 -562 18540 COVER
ED
5.45
9 6 2 7 2 3 120 7200 3921 3279 21819 COVERED

10 6 2 7 2 3 120 7200 5980.48 1220 23039 COVERED
11 6 2 7 2 3 120 7200 3511.148 3689 26728 COVERED
12 6 2 7 2 3 120 7200 6415.6 784 27512 COVERED
13 5 2 7 2 3 100 6000 3765.36 2235 29747 COVERED
14 6 2 7 1 3 102 6120 4373.2 1747 31493 COVERED
15 6 2 7 1 3 102 6120 2572.12 3548 35041 COVERED
16 6 2 7 1 3 102 6120 6682 -562 34479 COVERED
17 4 2 7 1 3 68 4080 3921 159 34638 COVERED
18 4 2 7 2 3 80 4800 7170.4 -2370 32268 COVERED
19 6 2 7 2 3 120 7200 4206.34 2994 35262 COVERED
20 6 2 7 2 3 120 7200 7134.88 65 35327 COVERED
21 6 2 7 2 3 120 7200 4185.588 3014 38341 COVERED
22 6 3 7 2 3 162 9720 5838.4 3882 42223 COVERED
23 6 3 7 1 3 144 8640 3428.14 5212 47435 COVERED
24 5 3 7 1 3 120 7200 0 7200 54635 COVERED
25 6 3 7 1 3 144 8640 0 8640 63275 COVERED
26 3 3 7 1 3 72 4320 0 4320 67595 COVERED
5.46

TOTAL TOTAL
RS RS RS RS S) S)
TY (MIN) (MIN)
COVER
-3 6 5 7 2 3 246 14760 12710.8 2049 2049
ED
COVER
-2 6 5 7 2 3 246 14760 0 14760 16809
ED
COVER
-1 6 5 7 2 3 246 14760 11984.88 2775 19584
ED
COVER
0 6 5 7 2 3 246 14760 50 14710 34294
ED
COVER
1 7 5 7 2 3 287 17220 14545.2 2675 36969
ED
COVER
2 6 5 7 2 3 246 14760 50 14710 51679
ED
COVER
3 5 5 7 2 3 205 12300 14545.2 -2245 49434
ED
COVER
4 6 5 7 2 3 246 14760 50 14710 64144
ED
COVER
5 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280 15069.36 2211 66355
ED
COVER
6 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280 50 17230 83585
ED
COVER
7 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280 15150 2130 85715
ED
COVER
8 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280 50 17230 102945
ED
5.47
9 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280 13557.36 3723 106667 COVERED

10 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280 50 17230 123897 COVERED
11 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280 14545.2 2735 126632 COVERED
12 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280 50 17230 143862 COVERED
13 5 6 7 2 3 240 14400 9908.4 4492 148354 COVERED
14 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280 50 17230 165584 COVERED
15 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280 15150 2130 167714 COVERED
16 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280 50 17230 184944 COVERED
17 4 6 7 2 3 192 11520 16258.8 -4739 180205 COVERED
18 4 6 7 2 3 192 11520 50 11470 191675 COVERED
19 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280 16178.16 1102 192777 COVERED
20 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280 50 17230 210007 COVERED
21 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280 13234.8 4045 214052 COVERED
22 6 7 7 3 3 348 20880 50 20830 234882 COVERED
23 6 7 7 3 3 348 20880 20 20860 255742 COVERED
24 5 7 7 3 3 290 17400 50 17350 273092 COVERED
25 6 7 7 3 3 348 20880 0 20880 293972 COVERED
26 3 7 7 3 3 174 10440 0 10440 304412 COVERED
5.48

TOTAL TOTAL
RS RS RS RS S) S)
TY (MIN) (MIN)
COVER
-3 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 3600
ED
COVER
-2 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 7200
ED
COVER
-1 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 10800
ED
COVER
0 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 14400
ED
COVER
1 7 1 7 1 3 70 4200 3202.55 997 15397
ED
COVER
2 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 18997
ED
COVER
3 5 1 7 1 3 50 3000 3882 -882 18115
ED
COVER
4 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 21715
ED
COVER
5 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 3882 -282 21433
ED
COVER
6 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 25033
ED
COVER
7 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 4021.1 -421 24612
ED
COVER
8 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 28212
ED
5.49
9 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 4042.5 -443 27770 COVERED

10 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 31370 COVERED
11 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 3619.85 -20 31350 COVERED
12 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 34950 COVERED
13 5 1 7 1 3 50 3000 3882 -882 34068 COVERED
14 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 37668 COVERED
15 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 2651.5 949 38617 COVERED
16 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 42217 COVERED
17 4 1 7 1 3 40 2400 4042.5 -1643 40574 COVERED
18 4 1 7 1 3 40 2400 0 2400 42974 COVERED
19 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 4336.75 -737 42237 COVERED
20 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 45837 COVERED
21 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 4315.35 -715 45122 COVERED
22 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 48722 COVERED
23 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 3534.25 66 48788 COVERED
24 5 1 7 1 3 50 3000 0 3000 51788 COVERED
25 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 30 3570 55358 COVERED
26 3 1 7 1 3 30 1800 0 1800 57158 COVERED
5.50

TOTAL TOTAL
RS RS RS RS S) S)
TY (MIN) (MIN)
COVER
-3 6 5 7 2 3 246 14760 0 14760 14760
ED
COVER
-2 6 5 7 2 3 246 14760 10 14750 29510
ED
COVER
-1 6 5 7 2 3 246 14760 10 14750 44260
ED
COVER
0 6 5 7 2 3 246 14760 3430.1 11330 55590
ED
COVER
1 7 5 7 2 3 287 17220 10 17210 72800
ED
COVER
2 6 5 7 2 3 246 14760 4179 10581 83381
ED
COVER
3 5 5 7 2 3 205 12300 10 12290 95671
ED
COVER
4 6 5 7 2 3 246 14760 4179 10581 106252
ED
COVER
5 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280 10 17270 123522
ED
COVER
6 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280 4327.2 12953 136475
ED
COVER
7 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280 10 17270 153745
ED
COVER
8 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280 4350 12930 166675
ED
5.51
9 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280 10 17270 183945 COVERED

10 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280 3899.7 13380 197325 COVERED
11 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280 10 17270 214595 COVERED
12 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280 4179 13101 227696 COVERED
13 5 6 7 2 3 240 14400 10 14390 242086 COVERED
14 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280 2868 14412 256498 COVERED
15 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280 10 17270 273768 COVERED
16 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280 4350 12930 286698 COVERED
17 4 6 7 2 3 192 11520 10 11510 298208 COVERED
18 4 6 7 2 3 192 11520 4663.5 6857 305065 COVERED
19 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280 10 17270 322335 COVERED
20 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280 4640.7 12639 334974 COVERED
21 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280 10 17270 352244 COVERED
22 6 7 7 3 3 348 20880 3808.5 17072 369315 COVERED
23 6 7 7 3 3 348 20880 10 20870 390185 COVERED
24 5 7 7 3 3 290 17400 65 17335 407520 COVERED
25 6 7 7 3 3 348 20880 0 20880 428400 COVERED
26 3 7 7 3 3 174 10440 25 10415 438815 COVERED
5.52

TOTAL TOTAL
RS RS RS RS S) S)
TY (MIN) (MIN)
COVER
-3 6 3600 3600
1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 ED
COVER
-2 6 3600 7200
1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 ED
COVER
-1 6 3600 10800
1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 ED
COVER
0 6 1079 11879
1 7 1 3 60 3600 2520.6 ED
COVER
4200 16079
1 7 1 7 1 3 70 4200 0 ED
COVER
546 16625
2 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 3054 ED
COVER
3000 19625
3 5 1 7 1 3 50 3000 0 ED
COVER
546 20171
4 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 3054 ED
COVER
3600 23771
5 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 ED
COVER
437 24208
6 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 3163.2 ED
COVER
3600 27808
7 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 ED
COVER
420 28228
8 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 3180 ED
5.53
9 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 31828 COVERED

10 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 2848.2 752 32580 COVERED
11 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 36180 COVERED
12 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 3054 546 36726 COVERED
13 5 1 7 1 3 50 3000 0 3000 39726 COVERED
14 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 2088 1512 41238 COVERED
15 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 44838 COVERED
16 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 3180 420 45258 COVERED
17 4 1 7 1 3 40 2400 0 2400 47658 COVERED
18 4 1 7 1 3 40 2400 3411 -1011 46647 COVERED
19 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 50247 COVERED
20 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 3394.2 206 50453 COVERED
21 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 54053 COVERED
22 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 2781 819 54872 COVERED
23 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 58472 COVERED
24 5 1 7 1 3 50 3000 30 2970 61442 COVERED
25 6 1 7 1 3 60 3600 0 3600 65042 COVERED
26 3 1 7 1 3 30 1800 0 1800 66842 COVERED
5.54
TY (MIN) (MIN)
-3 6 2 7 1 3 102 6120 0 6120 6120 COVER
ED
-2 6 2 7 1 3 102 6120 0 6120 12240 COVER
ED
-1 6 2 7 1 3 102 6120 0 6120 18360 COVER
ED
0 6 2 7 1 3 102 6120 0 6120 24480 COVER
ED
1 7 2 7 1 3 119 7140 25 7115 31595 COVER
ED
2 6 2 7 1 3 102 6120 0 6120 37715 COVER
ED
3 5 2 7 1 3 85 5100 25 5075 42790 COVER
ED
4 6 2 7 1 3 102 6120 0 6120 48910 COVER
ED
5 6 2 7 1 3 102 6120 25 6095 55005 COVER
ED
6 6 2 7 1 3 102 6120 0 6120 61125 COVER
ED
7 6 2 7 1 3 102 6120 25 6095 67220 COVER
ED
8 6 2 7 1 3 102 6120 0 6120 73340 COVER
ED
5.55
9 6 2 7 25 3 534 32040 25 32015 105355 COVERED

10 6 2 7 1 3 102 6120 0 6120 111475 COVERED
11 6 2 7 1 3 102 6120 25 6095 117570 COVERED
12 6 2 7 1 3 102 6120 0 6120 123690 COVERED
13 5 2 7 1 3 85 5100 25 5075 128765 COVERED
14 6 2 7 1 3 102 6120 0 6120 134885 COVERED
15 6 2 7 1 3 102 6120 25 6095 140980 COVERED
16 6 2 7 1 3 102 6120 0 6120 147100 COVERED
17 4 2 7 1 3 68 4080 25 4055 151155 COVERED
18 4 2 7 1 3 68 4080 0 4080 155235 COVERED
19 6 2 7 1 3 102 6120 25 6095 161330 COVERED
20 6 2 7 1 3 102 6120 0 6120 167450 COVERED
21 6 2 7 1 3 102 6120 25 6095 173545 COVERED
22 6 3 7 1 3 144 8640 0 8640 182185 COVERED
23 6 3 7 1 3 144 8640 25 8615 190800 COVERED
24 5 3 7 1 3 120 7200 0 7200 198000 COVERED
25 6 3 7 1 3 144 8640 25 8615 206615 COVERED
26 3 3 7 1 3 72 4320 0 4320 210935 COVERED
5.56

TOTAL TOTAL
RS RS RS RS S) S)
TY (MIN) (MIN)
COVER
-3 6 14760 14760
5 7 2 3 246 14760 0 ED
COVER
-2 6 14760 29520
5 7 2 3 246 14760 0 ED
COVER
-1 6 6775 36295
5 7 2 3 246 14760 7984.92 ED
COVER
0 6 14760 51055
5 7 2 3 246 14760 0 ED
COVER
7528 58583
1 7 5 7 2 3 287 17220 9691.8 ED
COVER
8265 66848
2 6 5 7 2 3 246 14760 6495 ED
COVER
2608 69456
3 5 5 7 2 3 205 12300 9691.8 ED
COVER
8265 77721
4 6 5 7 2 3 246 14760 6495 ED
COVER
7239 84960
5 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280 10041.24 ED
COVER
10551 95511
6 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280 6729 ED
COVER
7185 102696
7 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280 10095 ED
COVER
10515 113211
8 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280 6765 ED
5.57
9 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280 9033.24 8247 121458 COVERED

10 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280 6054 11226 132684 COVERED
11 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280 9691.8 7588 140272 COVERED
12 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280 6495 10785 151057 COVERED
13 5 6 7 2 3 240 14400 6600.6 7799 158857 COVERED
14 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280 4425 12855 171712 COVERED
15 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280 10095 7185 178897 COVERED
16 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280 6765 10515 189412 COVERED
17 4 6 7 2 3 192 11520 10834.2 686 190097 COVERED
18 4 6 7 2 3 192 11520 7260 4260 194357 COVERED
19 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280 10780.44 6500 200857 COVERED
20 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280 7224 10056 210913 COVERED
21 6 6 7 2 3 288 17280 8818.2 8462 219375 COVERED
22 6 7 7 3 3 348 20880 5910 14970 234345 COVERED
23 6 7 7 3 3 348 20880 15 20865 255210 COVERED
24 5 7 7 3 3 290 17400 15 17385 272595 COVERED
25 6 7 7 3 3 348 20880 0 20880 293475 COVERED
26 3 7 7 3 3 174 10440 15 10425 303900 COVERED
5.58

TOTAL TOTAL
RS RS RS RS S) S)
TY (MIN) (MIN)
COVER
-3 6 6120 6120
2 7 1 3 102 6120 0 ED
COVER
-2 6 6120 12240
2 7 1 3 102 6120 0 ED
COVER
-1 6 6120 18360
2 7 1 3 102 6120 0 ED
COVER
0 6 6120 24480
2 7 1 3 102 6120 0 ED
COVER
7140 31620
1 7 2 7 1 3 119 7140 0 ED
COVER
6120 37740
2 6 2 7 1 3 102 6120 0 ED
COVER
5100 42840
3 5 2 7 1 3 85 5100 0 ED
COVER
6120 48960
4 6 2 7 1 3 102 6120 0 ED
COVER
7200 56160
5 6 2 7 2 3 120 7200 0 ED
COVER
7200 63360
6 6 2 7 2 3 120 7200 0 ED
COVER
7200 70560
7 6 2 7 2 3 120 7200 0 ED
COVER
7200 77760
8 6 2 7 2 3 120 7200 0 ED
5.59
9 6 3 7 2 3 148 8880 0 8880 86640 COVERED

10 6 3 7 2 3 162 9720 0 9720 96360 COVERED
11 6 3 7 2 3 162 9720 0 9720 106080 COVERED
12 6 3 7 2 3 162 9720 0 9720 115800 COVERED
13 5 3 7 2 3 128 7680 0 7680 123480 COVERED
14 6 2 7 2 3 120 7200 0 7200 130680 COVERED
15 6 2 7 2 3 120 7200 0 7200 137880 COVERED
16 6 2 7 2 3 120 7200 0 7200 145080 COVERED
17 4 2 7 2 3 80 4800 0 4800 149880 COVERED
18 4 3 7 2 3 108 6480 0 6480 156360 COVERED
19 6 3 7 2 3 162 9720 0 9720 166080 COVERED
20 6 3 7 2 3 162 9720 0 9720 175800 COVERED
21 6 3 7 2 3 162 9720 0 9720 185520 COVERED
22 6 3 7 2 3 162 9720 0 9720 195240 COVERED
23 6 3 7 2 3 162 9720 0 9720 204960 COVERED
24 5 3 7 2 3 135 8100 0 8100 213060 COVERED
25 6 3 7 2 3 162 9720 0 9720 222780 COVERED
26 3 3 7 2 3 81 4860 0 4860 227640 COVERED
The available capacity in each workstation fulfill the required capacity, so it could be concluded that available capacity is enough for
fulfilling the required capacity.
5.60
CHAPTER V
CONCLUSION
Capacity planning is a techinique to determine level of capacity needed to achieve

scheduled production, comparing with the available capacity. The function is to
check whther it is already fulfill the MPS or not.
Capacity Requirements Planning (CRP) is more detail than capacity planning and
MRP. The function is to calculate the detail capacity required by MRP. After
determining the required capacity, then calculate the available capacity. By
comparing available capacity and required capacity, it could be concluded that the
the available capacity has fulfilled the required capacity and the MPS could be used
for production planning.
5.61
REFERENCE
Fogarty, Donald W., Blackstone, John H. Jr., and Hoffman, T. R., (1991).
Production and Inventory Management. Colledge Division South-Western
Publishing Co, Cincinnati.
Gaspersz, V. (1998). Production Planning And Inventory Control Berdasarkan

Pendekatan Sistem Terintegrasi MRP II dan JIT Menuju Manufacturing 21.
Jakarta: Gramedia Pustaka Utama.

Smith, B. (1989). Computer Based Production and Inventory Control. Prentice

Hall.
5.62

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FINAL REPORT

12/14/2017 PROJECT ASSIGNMENT

Subject : Production Planning and Inventory Control (PPIC)

Lecturer : Anastasia Lidya Maukar, S.T., M.Sc., M.MT.

Cikarang, 14 December 2017

1. To determine of each forecasting demand.

1.3 Tools and Equipment(s)

1. Microsoft excel is used for the calculation

2.1 Principles of Forecasting

1. Forecasts are rarely perfect

2.2 Category of Forecasting

2. Forecasting of cigarettes: generally includes a count of up to 3 years.

3. Long-term forecasting: general for the planning period of 3 years or more.

1. Mid-term and long-term forecasting deals with more comprehensive

2. Short-term forecasting usually applies a different methodology than long-

3. Short-term forecasting tends to be more precise than long-term

The function of this review of future vision is to assist decision-makers in choosing

2.3.1 Qualitative Forecasting Methods

2.3.2 Quantitative forecasting methods

Table 2.1 shows these two categories and their characteristics.

Table 2.1 Types of Forecasting Methods

2.3.2.1.1 Simple Linear Regression

One variable, denoted x, is regarded as the predictor, explanatory, or

Where, Y is the dependent variable and x is the independent

2.3.2.1.2 Multiple Linear Regressions

Multiple regression analysis is almost the same as simple linear

Simple regression analysis uses a single x variable for each

Multiple regressions use multiple “x” variables for each independent

dt’ = dt-1 (2-3)

2.3.2.2.2 Arithmetic Average (Average Methods)

Where, dt’ is the number of forecasted demand for period t, dt is actual

2.3.2.2.3 Single Moving Average (SMA)

𝑑𝑡− +𝑑𝑡− +⋯+𝑑𝑡− ∑𝑛

Where, − 𝑖 is actual demand in period t-i and N is the number of time

𝑡− 𝑑𝑡− + 𝑡− 𝑑𝑡− +⋯+ 𝑡− 𝑑𝑡− ∑𝑛 𝑡−𝑖 𝑑𝑡−𝑖

Where, C is the weight.

2.3.2.2.5 Double Moving Average (DMA)

For the double moving average, the procedure is:

5. Forecasting for period m in the future (dt’) after t is :

Where, the is the coefficient of smoothing = 0< <1. Initiation is needed

Relationship between and N is = +

2.3.2.2.7 Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) – Browns Method

1. Create the first Exponential Smoothing,

"= . 𝑡 + − . 𝑡− " (2-13)

3. Calculate the component (at)

5. Forecasting for period m in the future, like in the formula 2-9.

1. Create the first Smoothing,

2.3.2.2.8 Triple Exponential Smoothing (TES) – Winter Method

2.3.2.2.9 Regression Analysis

The formula for regression analysis constant in the following:

The formula for regression analysis linear in the following:

The formula for regression analysis cyclic in the following:

2.4 Measurement of Forecasting Error

2.4.1 Mean Squared Error (MSE)

2.4.2 Standard Error of Estimate (SEE)

Where, f is degree of freedom (constant = 1, Linier = 2, Cyclical Quadratic

2.4.3 Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)

Where, PEt is the percentage of error during period t.

2.4.4 Mean Error (ME)

2.4.5 Mean Absolute Error (MAE) = Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)

2.5 Validation of Forecasting Model

2.5.1 Verification Test