Pizzottaite Journal Technical Analysis Article-297-315

Volume 6, Number 2, April – June’ 2017
ISSN (Print): 2279-0896, (Online): 2279-090X

PEZZOTTAITE JOURNALS SJIF (2015): 6.847, SJIF (2016): 7.067
UGC Journal No: 48980 H5-Index: 2, H5-Median: 2, H-Citations: 5
FORECASTING STOCK PRICES OF SELECTED FMCG COMPANIES LISTED

IN NSE INDIA LIMITED USING TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Patnam Nawaz Sharief56 Dr. R. Vara Prasad57 Dr. Mohammed Mujahed Ali58
ABSTRACT
The participation of retail investors in the stock market has grown tremendously, as the beckon of economic reforms initiated
by the government has brought structural changes and influenced the functioning and governance of the Indian capital market
since liberalization, Privatization and globalization. The present paper instigate the use of technical analysis to predict the
stock prices of select FMCG Companies listed in NSE India Limited by using Relative strength index and MACD.
KEYWORDS
FMCG, MACD, Relative Strength Index, ADL, Charts, Moving Averages etc.
INTRODUCTION
Technical Analysis is the Forecasting of future financial price movements based on an examinations of past price movements. Like
weather forecasting, technical analysis does not result in absolute predications about the future. Instead, technical analysis can help
investors anticipate what is “likely” to happen to prices over time. Technical analysis uses a wide variety of charts that show price
over time.
Technical analysis is a method of evaluating securities by analyzing statistics generated by markets activity, past prices and volume.
Technical analysis does not attempt to measure a securities intrinsic value; instead, they look at stock charts for patterns and
indicators that will determine a stocks future performance.
Technical analysis has become increasingly popular over the past several years, as more and more people believe that the historical
performance of a stock is a strong indication of future performance. The use of past performance should come as no surprise. People
using fundamental analysis have always looked at the past performance of companies by comparing fiscal data from previous
quarters and determine the future growth. The difference lies in the technical analysis belief that securities move according to
predictable trends and patterns. These trends continue until something happens to change the trend, and until this change occurs,
price levels are predictable, there are many instances of invertors successfully trading a security using only their knowledge of the
security charts, without even understanding what the company does. However, although technical analysis is tremendous tool, most
agree it is much more effective when used in combinations with fundamental analysis.
STATEMENT OF PROBLEM
Investment in the equity is a very volatile and investors feel it is a very risky market to invest, as there are difficulties in the equity
market. The volatility has influenced even FMCG stocks. The FMCG stock are considered as the safe bet because the hardly are
influenced by the market movement. In the recent time, the FMCG stock price also has fallen down even though their financial
performance is satisfactory.
REVIEW OF LITERATURE
Cooter (1962) found that the stock prices move at random when studied at one-week interval. The data for his study was weekend
prices of forty-five stocks from New York stock exchange. He tested randomness of share by means of a mean square successive
difference test. He concluded that there was not one random walk model. He concluded that the share price trends could be predicted
when studied at fourteen-week interval. However, in total the stock prices followed a random walk at weekly intervals.
56Student, Department of Management Studies, Madanapalle Institute of Technology & Science, Andhra Pradesh, India,
nawazsharief1994@gmail.com
57Assistant Professor, Department of Management Studies, Madanapalle Institute of Technology & Science, Andhra Pradesh, India,
varaprasadr@gmail.com
58Assistant Professor, Department of Management Studies, Madanapalle Institute of Technology & Science, Andhra Pradesh, India,
drmujahedm@mits.ac.in
International Journal of Applied Financial Management Perspectives © Pezzottaite Journals 3214 |P a g e

Eugene F. Fama (1965) has answered the questions to what extend can the history of a common stock price can be used to make
meaningful predictions concerning the future prices of the stock? The theory of random walk on stock prices is studied with two
hypotheses. They are i) Successive price changes are independent and ii) The price changes conform to some probability distribution.
The data for this study consists of daily prices for each of the thirty stocks of the Dow-Jones industrial average. This study concludes
that there is strong and voluminous evidence in favor of random walk theory.
Ramaswami K. (1996) assessed the relationship among book values, earnings, dividend and market price of share, impact of bonus
issues, impact of security scam on equity return to that end, the author used daily share price of 30 companies included in the
construction of BSE sensitive index, daily data of BSESI and NYSE composite index, annual data on BV per share market price
per share, EPS and DPS and data on bonus issue made, during the period of study, the researcher used correlation, regression and
frequency distribution for interpreting data.
Sharma and Robert E. Kennedy (1977) tested the applicability of random walk hypothesis to the stock market in developing country
namely India and compare this to that of stock markets in developed countries namely USA, and England. For this purpose, the
price behavior of Bombay stock exchange is statistically examined for both randomness and independence. The test the random
walk hypothesis. The test covers 132 monthly observations for each stock market index of common stock listed in Bombay exchange
for eleven years from 1968-1973. The study indicates that price dependence while statistically significant, is comparably small in
the developing countries. Based on the test, it is evident that the Bombay stock exchange stock obeys a random walk and is
equivalent to developed countries stock exchange.
Fernando Fernandez–Rodriguez, Simon Sosvilla–Rivero, Julian Andrada–Felix (1999) assessed whether some simple forms of
technical analysis can predict stock price movement in the Madrid stock exchange, covering thirty-one-year period from Jan 1966
–Oct 1997. The results provide strong support for profitability of those technical trading rules. By making use of bootstrap
techniques, the author shows the returns obtained from these trading rules are not consistent with several null models frequently
used in finance.
C. L. Osler (2001) provides a microstructural explanation for the success of two familiar predictions from technical analysis: (1)
trends tend to be reversed at predictable support and resistance levels, and (2) trends gain momentum once predictable support and
resistance levels are crossed. The explanation is based on a close examination of stop-loss and take-profit orders at a large foreign
exchange dealing bank. Take-profit orders tend to reflect price trends and stop-loss Technical Analysis on Selected Stocks of Energy
Sector orders tend to intensify trends. The requested execution rates of these orders are strongly clustered at round numbers, which
are often used as support and resistance levels. Significantly, there are marked differences between the clustering patterns of stop-
loss and take-profit orders, and between the patterns of stop-loss buy and stop-loss sell orders. These differences explain the success
of the two predictions.
Gupta, (2003) examined the perceptions about the main sources of his worries concerning the stock market. A sample comprise of
middle-class household’s spread over 21 sates / union territories. The study reveals that the foremost cause of worry for household
investors is fraudulent company management, in the second place is too much volatility, and in the third place is too much price
manipulation.
Ravindra and Wang (2006) examine the relationship of trading volume to stock indices in Asian markets. Stock market indices from
six developing markets in Asia are analyzed over the 34-month period ending in October 2005. In the South Korean market, the
causality extends from the stock indices to trading volume while the causality is the opposite in the Taiwanese market.
OBJECTIVES OF STUDY
• To forecast and predict the future stock prices of selected FMCG companies listed in NSE India Limited.
• To calculate the Relative Strength Index of selected FMCG Sector Stocks.
• To measure the distance by using MACD — Moving Average Convergence/Divergence.
• To offer suggestions based on the findings.
SOURCES OF DATA
Secondary Data: The study is purely based on Secondary data which is collected from NSE India Ltd Website and Annual Report
issued by the companies and Information Available in the stock markets like Prices, volume etc.
Statistical Tools Used: Statistical tools like Simple Moving Average, Moving Average convergence and divergence, Relative
Strength Index, ADL.

DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATIONS
The following FMCG companies listed on NSE India Limited are taken for the study.
Godrej
Table-1
Sources: Authors Compilation
Graph-1
The above chart – consists of the Moving Averages 3MA, 9MA, 21MA, 90MA of the company. The trend line equation of the
moving averages is y = 0.0896x - 3431.1. From Chart-2 shows a stock chart with 3 – Day, 9 – Day, 21 – Day and 90 – Day Moving
average. The three days moving average is more responsive to prices than the next all-moving averages. In general, traders can
increase the responsiveness of a moving average by increasing the period and smooth out movements by increasing the period.
Interpretation: MACD is a trend – following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of
prices.
Crossovers: As shown in the chart above, when the MACD falls below the signal line, it is a bearish signal, which indicates that it
may be time to sell. Conversely, when the MACD rises above signal line, the indicator gives a bullish signal, which suggests that
the price of assets is likely to experience upward signal.

When the security price diverges from the MACD. It signals the end of the current trend. The MACD indicator is the most popular
tool in technical analysis, because it gives traders the ability to quickly and easily identify the short-term trend direction. A cross
though the zero line is very simple method that can be used to identify the direction of the trend and key points when momentum is
building. Above Chart Shows Godrej with MACD and the MACD-Histogram. A bearish signal line crossover occurred in the year
2013 and again at the end of 2016, and this turned the MACD-Histogram negative. A bullish signal line crossover occurred in early
2014 and this turned the MACD-Histogram positive the rest of the year. There was a period of divergence as MACD moved further
from its signal line (red line) and a period of convergence as MACD moved closer to its signal line (red line).
Graph-2
Interpretations: The relative strength index is calculated using the following formula:
RSI = 100 – 100 / (1+RS)
Where RS = Average gain of up periods during the specified period / Average loss of down periods during the specified period.
Traditional interpretation and usage of the RSI is that RSI value of 70 or above indicate that security is becoming overbought or
overvalued, and therefore may be primed for a trend reversal or corrective pullback in price. On the other side of RSI values, an RSI
reading of 30 or below is commonly interpreted as indicating am oversold or undervalued condition that may signal a trend change
or corrective price reversal to the upside. Like many momentum oscillators, overbought and oversold readings for RSI work best
when prices move sideways within a range. The above chart is showing the trading between 70 and 30. The stock peaked soon after
RSI reached 70 and bottomed soon after the stock reached 30 at 200 days and 380 days and again it reached 70 at 500 days. The
RSI reached more than 75 at 1100 days and soon comes down below 30. The 40-50 zone subsequently marked resistance until a
huge breakout at 1100.
Graph-3

ADL
Graph-4
Interpretations: The Accumulation/distribution line is of looking to measure buy/sell pressure on a security or confirm the strength
of the trend.
Formula: CLV = ({(Closing price – Low) – (High Price – Closing Price)}/(High Price – Low price))
Bullish and Bearish Signals: The A/D line creates both bullish and bearish signals. These signals rely on divergence and
confirmation
Bullish Signals: Bullish signals occur when the price of security is moving down or is in a downtrend, but A/D line is trending
upward. These increase the pressure of buying, which can indicate weakening seller strength.
Bearish Signals: A Bearish signal is formed when the A/D line is trending downward, but the price of the security is in an uptrend.
Selling pressure is beginning to increase, which usually signals a future downtrend in the price. The ADL is showing a bearish
divergence from 1st March 2012 until one year and gradually it shows a bullish divergence and reaches more than 50000 points.
From March 2014, again its starts showing a bearish divergence and reached a - 150000 points in the half year of 2016. This means
fewer stocks are declining and the decline in the index may be nearing an end.
Hindustan Unilever Limited
Table-2: Moving Averages

Graph-5
This Above Chart consists of the Moving Averages 3MA, 9MA, 21MA, 90MA of the company. The trend line equation of the
moving averages is y = 0.2887x – 11412. From Above Chart shows a stock chart with 3 – Day, 9 – Day, 21 – Day and 90 – Day
Moving average. The three days moving average is more responsive to prices than the next all-moving averages. In general, traders
can increase the responsiveness of a moving average by increasing the period and smooth out movements by increasing the period.
Relative Strength Index
Graph-6
RSI = 100 – 100 / (1+RS)
Where RS = Average gain of up periods during the specified time frame / Average loss of down periods during the specified time
frame.
Traditional interpretation and usage of the RSI is that RSI value of 70 or above indicate that security is becoming overbought or
overvalued, and therefore may be primed for a trend reversal or corrective pullback in price. On the other side of RSI values, an RSI
reading of 30 or below is commonly interpreted as indicating am oversold or undervalued condition that may signal a trend change
or corrective price reversal to the upside. Like many momentum oscillators, overbought and oversold readings for RSI work best
when prices move sideways within a range. The above chart is showing the trading between 70 and 30. The stock peaked soon after
RSI reached 70 and bottomed soon after the stock reached 30 at 180 days and 200 days and again it reached 70 at 350 days. The
RSI reached more than 80 at 3 times from 350 until 800 and soon comes down below 30. The 40-50 zone. Subsequently marked
resistance until a huge breakout at 350, 640 and 800 days.

Moving Average Convergence and Divergence
Graph-7
Interpretations: MACD is a trend – following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of
prices.
tool in technical analysis, because it gives traders the ability to quickly and easily identify the short-term trend direction.
A cross though the zero line is very simple method that can be used to identify the direction of the trend and key points when
momentum is building. Chart shows HUL with MACD and the MACD-Histogram. A bearish signal line crossover occurred in the
year 2013 and again at the middle of 2013, and this turned the MACD-Histogram negative. A bullish signal line crossover occurred
in early 2015 and this turned the MACD-Histogram positive the rest of the year. There was a period of divergence as MACD moved
further from its signal line (red line) and a period of convergence as MACD moved closer to its signal line (red line).
Graph-8
The ADL is showing a bearish divergence from 1st March 2012 until middle of 2016 shows a bullish divergence and reaches more
than 50000 points. From March 2014 again its starts showing a bearish divergence and reached a 300000 points in the half year of
2014. This means fewer stocks are declining and the decline in the index may be nearing an end.

ITC Limited
Table-3
Graph-9
This Chart consists of the Moving Averages 3MA, 9MA, 21MA, 90MA of the company. The trend line equation of the moving
averages is y = 0.0896x - 3431.1. From Chart shows a stock chart with 3 – Day, 9 – Day, 21 – Day and 90 – Day Moving average.
The three days moving average is more responsive to prices than the next all-moving averages. In general, traders can increase the
responsiveness of a moving average by increasing the period and smooth out movements by increasing the period.
Graph-10

Interpretation: The RSI is a momentum oscillator, which measures the speed of directional price movement. According to Wilder,
a divergence between the RSI and price action on the chart is a very strong indication that a market turning point is imminent. A
divergence between the RSI and stock price action is where the stock is making new highs and the RSI is making new lows (or vice-
versa).RSI can also be used to identify when a stock or share is overbought or oversold. With a 14-day period RSI, many analysts
consider that if the RSI drops to below 30 mark, it indicates that the stock is oversold, and so is a possible buy signal. Conversely,
if the RSI rises to above 70, the stock may be overbought and it is worth considering selling. If a shorter period (for example 8 days)
is used, you may wish to use a lower level (for example 20 to 25) as an oversold level, and a higher level (e.g. 75 to 80) as an
overbought indicator. The lower number of days used for the period, the more volatile the RSI will be.
Overall, RSI is one of the most popular technical indicators, and analysts consider it to be among the most reliable. However, it
works best with volatile shares, and may not provide, as much success if used with shares whose price does not change much over
time. Also, beware of large surges and drops in stock or share values - such sudden movements may produce a false buy or sell
signal. It is best to use RSI as a compliment to your investing tools and information, rather than simply on its. When the RSI has
crossed the 30 line from below to above and is rising, a buying opportunity is indicated. When it has crossed the 70 line from above
to below and is falling, a sell signal is indicated. Overbought and oversold readings for RSI work best when prices move sideways
within a range. The above chart is showing the trading between 70 and 30. The stock peaked soon after RSI reached 70 at starting
itself and it showing the same result until 600 days. The RSI reached more than 75 at 1100 days and soon comes down below 30 at
1000. The 40-50 zone subsequently marked resistance until a huge breakout at 1200 it reaches 70.
Graph-11
Interpretation: MACD is a trend – following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of
prices.
tool in technical analysis, because it gives traders the ability to quickly and easily identify the short-term trend direction. A cross
though the zero line is very simple method that can be used to identify the direction of the trend and key points when momentum is
building. Above Chart shows ITC with MACD and the MACD-Histogram.
A bearish signal line crossover occurred in the middle of the year 2013, at 2015 and again at the middle of 2016, and this turned the
MACD-Histogram negative. A bullish signal line crossover occurred in early 2013 and this turned the MACD-Histogram positive
for some time and slows down for the rest of the year. There was a period of divergence as MACD moved further from its signal
line (red line) and a period of convergence as MACD moved closer to its signal line (red line).

Graph-12
of the trend.
Bullish and Bearish Signals: The A/D line creates both bullish and bearish signals. These signals rely on divergence and
confirmation.
Bullish Signals: Bullish signals occur when the price of security is moving down or is in a downtrend, but A/D line is trending
upward. These increase the pressure of buying, which can indicate weakening seller strength.
Bearish Signals: A Bearish signal is formed when the A/D line is trending downward, but the price of the security is in an uptrend.
Selling pressure is beginning to increase, which usually signals a future downtrend in the price.
The ADL is showing a bullish divergence from 1st March 2012 until 2017 and gradually it shows a bullish divergence and reaches
more than 50000 points in the year 2015.
Marico Limited
Table-4

Graph-13
This Above chart consists of the Moving Averages 3MA, 9MA, 21MA, 90MA of the company. The trend line equation of the
moving averages is y = 0.0896x - 3431.1. From Above chart shows a stock chart with 3 – Day, 9 – Day, 21 – Day and 90 – Day
Graph-14
versa).
RSI can also be used to identify when a stock or share is overbought or oversold. With a 14-day period RSI, many analysts consider
that if the RSI drops to below 30 mark, it indicates that the stock is oversold, so is a possible buy signal. Conversely, if the RSI rises
to above 70, the stock may be overbought and it is worth considering selling. If a shorter period (for example 8 days) is used, you
may wish to use a lower level (for example 20 to 25) as an oversold level, and a higher level (e.g. 75 to 80) as an overbought
indicator. The lower number of days used for the period, the more volatile the RSI will be.
signal. It is best to use RSI as a compliment to your investing tools and information, rather than simply on it.

When the RSI has crossed the 30 line from below to above and is rising, a buying opportunity is indicated. When it has crossed the
70 line from above to below and is falling, a sell signal is indicated. Overbought and oversold readings for RSI work best when
prices move sideways within a range. The above chart is showing the trading between 70 and 30. The stock peaked soon after RSI
reached 70 and bottomed soon after the stock reached 30 at days and 10 days and again it reached 70 at 500 days. The RSI reached
more than 75 at 500 days and 1100 days and soon comes down below 30. The 40-50 zone subsequently marked resistance until a
huge breakout at 1100.
Graph-15
Interpretations: This above Chart Shows Marico with MACD and the MACD-Histogram. A bearish signal line crossover occurred
in the year 2016, and this turned the MACD-Histogram negative. There was a period of divergence as MACD moved further from
its signal line (red line) and a period of convergence as MACD moved closer to its signal line (red line).
Graph-16
of the trend. The A/D line creates both bullish and bearish signals. These signals rely on divergence and confirmation. Bullish
signals occur when the price of security is moving down or is in a downtrend, but A/D line is trending upward. These increase the
pressure of buying, which can indicate weakening seller strength. A Bearish signal is formed when the A/D line is trending
downward, but the price of the security is in an uptrend. Selling pressure is beginning to increase, which usually signals a future

downtrend in the price. The ADL is showing a bearish divergence from 1 st March 2012 until 2017. This means fewer stocks are
declining and the decline in the index may be nearing an end.
PGHH
Table-5
Graph-17
This above Chart consists of the Moving Averages 3MA, 9MA, 21MA, 90MA of the company. The trend line equation of the
moving averages is y = 0.0896x - 3431.1. From above Chart shows a stock chart with 3 – Day, 9 – Day, 21 – Day and 90 – Day

Graph-18
versa). RSI can also be used to identify when a stock or share is overbought or oversold. With a 14-day period RSI, many analysts
consider that if the RSI drops to below 30 mark, it indicates that the stock is oversold, and so is a possible buy signal. Conversely,
if the RSI rises to above 70, the stock may be overbought and it is worth considering selling. If a shorter period (for example 8 days)
is used, you may wish to use a lower level (for example 20 to 25) as an oversold level, and a higher level (e.g. 75 to 80) as an
overbought indicator. The lower number of days used for the period, the more volatile the RSI will be.
signal. It is best to use RSI as a compliment to your investing tools and information, rather than simply on it.
When the RSI has crossed the 30 line from below to above and is rising, a buying opportunity is indicated. When it has crossed the
70 line from above to below and is falling, a sell signal is indicated. Overbought and oversold readings for RSI work best when
prices move sideways within a range. The above chart is showing the trading between 70 and 30. The stock peaked soon after RSI
reached 70 and bottomed soon after the stock reached 30 at starting itself and again it reached 70 at 1000 days. The 40-50 zone
subsequently marked resistance until a huge breakout at 1000 days.
Graph-19

Above chart shows PGHH with MACD and the MACD-Histogram. A bearish signal line crossover occurred in the year 2012 and
again at the end of 2015, and this turned the MACD-Histogram negative. A bullish signal line crossover occurred in early 2014 and
continues until the middle of 2015 and this turned the MACD-Histogram positive the rest of the year. There was a period of
divergence as MACD moved further from its signal line (red line) and a period of convergence as MACD moved closer to its signal
line (red line).
Graph-20
of the trend. The A/D line creates both bullish and bearish signals. These signals rely on divergence and confirmation Bullish signals
occur when the price of security is moving down or is in a downtrend, but A/D line is trending upward. These increase the pressure
of buying, which can indicate weakening seller strength. A Bearish signal is formed when the A/D line is trending downward, but
the price of the security is in an uptrend. Selling pressure is beginning to increase, which usually signals a future downtrend in the
price. The ADL is showing a bearish divergence from 1st March 2012 until 2017. In 2015, it has reached -40000 points. This means
fewer stocks are declining and the decline in the index may be nearing an end.
FINDINGS
 It is found that three Days moving average is very to the closing price of these five companies i.e., Godrej, ITC, PGHH,
Marico, and HUL.
 The study of stock performance of FMCG becomes very difficult because of unusual difficulties.
 All companies are well known leading companies has showing superior performance during this 5 years’ period.
 ITC is a well-known company, which earns more returns, and it is stable during major crisis.
 The NSE stock index in the select companies performing better compared to the company stock index.
 From the technical tool RSI, it is evident that many of the stocks are within the boundaries.
SUGGESTIONS
 It may be suggested that the sample companies shall contribute on improving the company margins rather than depending
on market index.
 Investors should go for long-term investment.
 Speculators and traders can take advantage of market volatility,
 Before investing, shareholders should use the variables like technical analysis to determine the stock price effectively.

CONCLUSION
In the stock market, the prices of stocks are more fluctuating over a period of five years, some of the stocks are bullish and others
are in bearish trend. The share of Godrej, HUL, ITC, Marico and PGHH companies are favorable during the study period. While
taking decision the investor should take relevant information about the companies. The investor should use technical analysis for
better decision making regarding buying and selling of stocks.
To conclude, investing in securities market is very risky. Short-term investment in equities are may be unfavorable but long-term
investment is always favorable. Therefore, investors has to prefer long-term investments like equity share. I suggest investing in
these 5 FMCG companies.
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Volume 6, Number 2, April – June’ 2017

ISSN (Print): 2279-0896, (Online): 2279-090X

FORECASTING STOCK PRICES OF SELECTED FMCG COMPANIES LISTED

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RSI = 100 – 100 / (1+RS)

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Hindustan Unilever Limited

Table-2: Moving Averages

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Relative Strength Index

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RSI = 100 – 100 / (1+RS)

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 Investors should go for long-term investment.

 Speculators and traders can take advantage of market volatility,

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