GLOBAL IMPACT

The ship seizure has prompted global concern and raised questions about eventual
international intervention. NATO and the U.N. Security Council are holding emergency
meetings to discuss what to do.

Russia's actions are drawing renewed Western anger — and demonstrating Russian
President Vladimir Putin's resolve just days before he meets U.S. President Donald
Trump at the Group of 20 summit in Argentina.

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The European Union is calling on both sides to stay calm, but is distracted by
negotiations on Britain's pending departure and divided over migration, and may have
little energy to deal with a new Ukraine crisis.

Two Ukrainian navy artillery boats and a tugboat were transiting from Odessa on the
Black Sea to Mariupol in the Sea of Azov.

UKRAINE’S CHOICE: RUSSIA vs. THE WEST

The roots of the current conflict lie in autumn 2013 when the Ukrainian government was
due to sign a deal supposed to open European Union markets for Ukrainian goods and put
the country on a pathway to possible EU membership. That endangered Ukraine's ties
with Russia, its closest neighbor and major trading partner.

The Kremlin vehemently opposed the deal, fearing an uncontrolled flow of goods
through what was then virtually an open border. Despite his close ties to Russia, President
Viktor Yanukovych publicly pledged to sign the deal — only to walk out on it at the last
moment. Massive street protests followed, decrying Yanukovych for what was seen as an
attempt to deny Ukrainians a European future.

A crackdown by riot police saw 130 people killed in sniper fire. Yanukovych fled the
capital to Crimea and was eventually whisked away by Russian special forces to southern
Russia. An interim government, made up of the protest leaders, stepped in.

CRIMEAN ANNEXATION

In February 2014, Russian officials began arriving in the Crimean peninsula shortly after
the pro-Western government took power in Kiev, fanning fears of an onslaught on
Russian heritage in parts of Ukraine including Crimea. Troops without insignia soon
appeared in Crimea, occupying crucial infrastructure including Ukrainian military bases.
It was only years later that Putin publicly admitted that these were in fact Russian troops.

Ukrainian troops largely did not put up resistance and retreated.

Would-be separatist commander and Russian officer Igor Girkin later recounted how he
and other Russian officers forced the hand of local Crimean lawmakers to pass a motion
for a referendum to secede from Ukraine and join Russia. An overwhelming majority of
votes cast on March 16, 2014, supported secession. Two days later, Moscow signed a
declaration with self-proclaimed Crimean officials, sealing the annexation. Neither the
vote nor the annexation was recognized by the United Nations.

WAR IN EASTERN UKRAINE

Emboldened by the annexation of Crimea, local activists, propped up by Russian

operatives, took over towns in eastern Ukraine and tore down Ukrainian flags. Separatist
leaders in the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk held contested votes supporting a motion to
break away from Ukraine.

Sporadic outbursts of violence and clashes between Ukrainian troops and the separatists
spilled over into a full-blown war in May 2014, when Ukraine launched an airstrike on
Donetsk airport which was overrun by Russian Chechen fighters.

The conflict in eastern Ukraine has since killed more than 10,000 people and displaced
over 1 million. Large swathes of this area remain under separatist control.

The Kremlin never admitted its role in the war, portraying it as a civil conflict. But
overwhelming evidence suggests that Russia has been sending a sizeable number of
troops and advisers as well as weapons to the rebels, helping to tip the conflict in their
favor. Media including The Associated Press reported a massive stream of heavy
weaponry and tanks crossing in from Russia.

Ukraine signed peace accords with the separatists in 2015, calling for a cease-fire and
political settlement in the east. While it helped to decrease the intensity of fighting, the
accords did nothing to resolve the region's political stalemate.

Recent Developments

The conflict in eastern Ukraine has transitioned to a stalemate after it first erupted in
early 2014, but shelling and skirmishes still occur regularly, including an escalation in
violence in the spring of 2018.

Since taking office, the Donald J. Trump administration has continued to pressure Russia
over its involvement eastern Ukraine. In January 2018, the United States imposed new
sanctions on twenty-one individuals and nine companies linked to the conflict. In March
2018, the State Department approved the sale of anti-tank weapons to Ukraine, the first
sale of lethal weaponry since the conflict began, and in July 2018 the Department of
Defense announced an additional $200 million in defensive aid to Ukraine, bringing the
total amount of aid provided since 2014 to $1 billion.
In October 2018, Ukraine joined the United States and seven other North Atlantic Treaty
Organization (NATO) countries in a series of large-scale air exercises in western Ukraine.
The exercises came after Russia held its annual military exercises in September 2018, the
largest since the fall of the Soviet Union.

Background

The crisis in Ukraine began with protests in the capital city of Kiev in November 2013
against Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych’s decision to reject a deal for greater
economic integration with the European Union. After a violent crackdown by state
security forces unintentionally drew an even greater number of protesters and escalated
the conflict, President Yanukovych fled the country in February 2014.

In March 2014, Russian troops took control of Ukraine’s Crimean region, before formally
annexing the peninsula after Crimeans voted to join the Russian Federation in a disputed
local referendum. Russian President Vladimir Putin cited the need to protect the rights of
Russian citizens and Russian speakers in Crimea and southeast Ukraine. The crisis
heightened ethnic divisions, and two months later pro-Russian separatists in the Donetsk
and Luhansk regions of eastern Ukraine held a referendum to declare independence from
Ukraine.

Violence in eastern Ukraine between Russian-backed separatist forces and the Ukrainian
military has by conservative estimates killed more than 10,300 people and injured nearly
24,000 since April 2014. Although Moscow has denied its involvement, Ukraine and
NATO have reported the buildup of Russian troops and military equipment near Donetsk
and Russian cross-border shelling.

In July 2014, the situation in Ukraine escalated into an international crisis and put the
United States and the European Union (EU) at odds with Russia when a Malaysian
Airlines flight was shot down over Ukrainian airspace, killing all 298 onboard. Dutch air
accident investigators concluded in October 2015 that the plane had been downed by a
Russian-built surface-to-air missile. In September 2016, investigators said that the missile
system was provided by Russia, determining it was moved into eastern Ukraine and then
back to Russian territory following the downing of the airplane.

Since February 2015, France, Germany, Russia, and Ukraine have attempted to broker a
cessation in violence through the Minsk Accords. The agreement includes provisions for
a cease-fire, withdrawal of heavy weaponry, and full Ukrainian government control
throughout the conflict zone. However, efforts to reach a diplomatic settlement and
satisfactory resolution have been unsuccessful.

In April 2016, NATO announced that the alliance would deploy four battalions to Eastern
Europe, rotating troops through Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland to deter possible
future Russian aggression elsewhere in Europe, particularly in the Baltics. These
battalions were joined by two U.S. Army tank brigades, deployed to Poland in September
2017 to further bolster the alliance’s deterrence presence.
Ukraine has been the target of a number of cyberattacks since the conflict started in 2014.
In December 2015, more than 225,000 people lost power across Ukraine in an attack, and
in December 2016 parts of Kiev experienced another power blackout following a similar
attack targeting a Ukrainian utility company. In June 2017, government and business
computer systems in Ukraine were hit by the NotPetya cyberattack; the crippling attack,
attributed to Russia, spread to computer systems worldwide and caused billions of dollars
in damages.

Concerns

The conflict in Ukraine risks further deterioration of U.S.-Russia relations and greater
escalation if Russia expands its presence in Ukraine or into NATO countries. Russia’s
actions have raised wider concerns about its intentions elsewhere in Eastern Europe, and
a Russian incursion into a NATO country would solicit a response from the United States
as a NATO ally. The conflict has heightened tensions in Russia’s relations with both the
United States and Europe, complicating the prospects for cooperation elsewhere
including on issues of terrorism, arms control, and a political solution in Syria.

Russian irredentism generally refers to irredentist claims to parts of the former Russian
Empire or USSR made during the 21st century for the Russian Federation.

The Annexation of Crimea has been partially explained as an irredentist claim.

Why Russia Wants Crimea

For centuries it has loomed large for Russian and Soviet leaders.
Alice Popovici

When Russia signed the Treaty of Paris in 1856, accepting defeat in the Crimean War—
which had decimated its military and ruined its economy—it agreed to dismantle its naval
base in the port city of Sevastopol. These were the terms demanded by Britain, France
and their allies, who sought to eliminate Russia as a military threat in the Black Sea.

But the concession didn’t last long.

Russia began to rebuild Sevastopol during the Franco-Prussian War, in 1870. And
throughout history, Russian leaders would return to Crimea again and again. After
Germany’s bombing of Crimea during World War II, much of Sevastopol was in ruins.
But Joseph Stalin declared the port a “hero city” and ordered it restored to its former
neoclassical beauty.

Indeed, the Crimean peninsula has loomed large for Russian leaders ever since Russian
Tsarina Catherine the Great annexed it from the Ottoman Empire in 1783. The
strategically located peninsula, which is officially part of Ukraine, has given Russia
military leverage not only in the Black Sea, but the greater Mediterranean region. After
the fall of the Soviet Union, a 1997 treaty with Ukraine allowed Russia to keep its Black
Sea Fleet in Sevastopol, under a lease that has been extended until 2042.

June 1942: A warship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet shelling German and Romanian
positions near Sevastopol (Photo by Popperfoto/Getty Images)

But in 2014, Russia seized Crimea from Ukraine in an illegal move that violated the
territorial integrity of the former Soviet republic, and sparked a war that has displaced
nearly 2 million people and destroyed the country’s infrastructure. Russian President
Vladimir Putin’s justifies the aggression, in part, by asserting that Crimea is mostly
comprised of ethnic Russians.

The peninsula has a complicated history.

For hundreds of years, Crimea has been the home of Tatars, a group of Turkic speakers
who lived under the Ottoman Empire until Catherine the Great annexed the region. In
1944, Stalin deported about 200,000 Tatars to Siberia and Central Asia, calling the ethnic
Muslims traitors to the USSR and bringing in ethnic Russians to replenish the workforce.
And after Stalin’s death, Soviet premier Nikita Khrushchev transferred Crimea to Ukraine
in a move hailed as a “noble act on behalf of the Russian people.” The transfer was
praised at the 1954 meeting of the Presidium of the USSR Soviet Supreme, the Soviet
Union’s highest legislative body.

“Comrades…The transfer of the Crimean Oblast (or region) to the Ukrainian SSR is
occurring in remarkable days,” said Soviet politician Sharof Rashidov. “This is possible
only in our country, where there is no ethnic strife and there are no national differences,
where the lives of all the Soviet peoples pass in an atmosphere of peaceful constructive
work in the name of the peace and happiness of all humanity…”

“Comrades!…Only in our country is it possible that such a great people as the Russian
people magnanimously transferred one of the valuable oblasts to another fraternal people
without any hesitation,” said Otto Wille Kuusinen, another Communist Party leader.

But for all the talk about unity and cooperation, recent documents suggest Khrushchev’s
move was motivated more by political calculation than goodwill. It was designed to
appease Ukrainian leadership and solidify his position in the power struggle that emerged
after Stalin’s death in 1953.

Russian paramilitaries stand guard outside of a Ukrainian military base in the town of
Perevevalne near the Crimean city of Simferopol on March 6, 2014, as part of the
standoff between the Russian military and Ukrainian forces in Ukraine’s Crimean
peninsula. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)
Some argue that Putin’s annexation of Crimea is an attempt to return Russia to the glory
of its pre-Soviet days, “as one of the world’s greatest civilizations.” Although Ukrainian
nationalism remains strong, particularly in the eastern part of the country, Ukrainian
officials and analysts report to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty that significant
demographic transformation is underway, with a huge influx of ethnic Russians.

“We can say with certainty that we are talking about hundreds of thousands of
people,” Ukrainian official Borys Babin, told the news service, including many from
Siberia. “An enormous number of bureaucrats are moving in with their families, and
those family members are looking for work. In addition, there is a large number of guest
workers—people who come to Crimea for major construction projects that are being
carried out in the military sphere.”

Meanwhile, thousands of Crimean Tatars have left the peninsula since the annexation in
2014. The Tatars, many of whom had returned to their ancestral homeland in the 1980s
and 1990s, are being driven out by an increasingly aggressive Russian presence.

Of those who remain, many are subject to harassment, arrest and imprisonment by
Russian authorities, particularly on charges of extremism and political activity

The Conflict on Ukrainian Soil

In late 2013, Ukrainian President Yanukovich declined to sign a trade and cooperation
agreement with the European Union. This decision resulted in massive and violent
demonstrations in Kiev and other parts of Ukraine.As a result, in February of 2014, President
Viktor Yanukovich was removed from office and an interim government was put in place, which was
not recognized by Russia. Shortly after, troops started appearing in Crimea and seized
control over key military and governmental buildings as well as other strategic facilities. A
classical realist would use this example of Russia’s actions towards Ukraine as Russia taking the
opportunity to intervene and push through with its influence, seeing the instability in Ukraine.
In March 2014, the Crimean status referendum asked the people of Crimea whether they wanted
to join Russia or if they wanted to keep their status as part of Ukraine. The Supreme
Council of Crimea stated that the referendum was in response to their stance that the new interim government in Kiev
was illegitimate and a large number of people in Ukraine were against President Viktor Yanukovych.
Russia supported this referendum and the opinion of the
Ukrainians who wanted to join Russia. Following the referendum, the Supreme Council of Crimea and Sevastopol City
Council declared independence of Crimea from Ukraine and requested to join Russia. On March 18, the Russian,
Crimean, and Sevastopolian leadership signed the Treaty on the Adoption of the Republic of Crimea to Russia, making
Crimea an official part of Russia. On March 24, Russian troops seized most of Ukraine’s bases in Crimea
and Ukrainian troops were transported from their base in Perevalne, Crimea. Russian President,
Vladimir Putin, justified his events in Crimea as Russia’s moral duty to take care of Russian
communities outside of territorial Russia and to respect Crimea’s desire to rejoin the motherland.
As Russia sees it, Kiev has violated an agreement, according to which Russia accepted an
independent Ukraine, provided it did not go along with antiRussian policy and did not rally with
the West.Russia was clearly not happy when it heard of Ukraine’s plans to sign a free trade
agreement with the European Union, which would allow for Ukraine’s slow integration into
Europe’s economic and military spaces. Following the split of Crimea from Ukraine, pro
-Russian demonstrations took place in the Donbass region of Ukraine which escalated into an armed conflict between
the separatist forces and the government of Ukraine. The conflict grew with Russian military vehicles crossing the
border into the city of Donetsk in Eastern Ukraine. There had been reports from the Ukrainian military that intensive
movement and equipment from Russia was sent to the separatist controlled parts of eastern Ukraine. Russia’s actions in
the eastern part of Ukraine gave Ukraine no other choice but to arm itself against the Russian military in its state.
Ukraine’s historical conflicts between Europe and Russia have left the country divided culturally and
politically, resulting in a major identity crisis. While western Ukraine is occupied by those
speaking Ukrainian and aligning themselves more with the Ukrainian government and towards
Europe, eastern Ukraine is dominated by those who share a cultural heritage with Russia
Multi-Level Analysis)

Level 1(Disputants\Personality of leaders)

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin

-Personality of Putin Dominant/controlling

-Personality of Poroshenko Pro-West

Level 2(Domestic Factors)

Economic
Socio-political -->2 Factions -->Iredentilism of Russia-->CRIMEAN ANNEXATION
-->Rise of Separatists Movements→