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Physical Bases of the Generation of Short-Term Earthquake Precursors: A

Complex Model of Ionization-Induced Geophysical Processes in the
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DOI: 10.1134/S0016793215040131

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ISSN 00167932, Geomagnetism and Aeronomy, 2015, Vol. 55, No. 4, pp. 521–538. © Pleiades Publishing, Ltd., 2015.
Original Russian Text © S.A. Pulinets, D.P. Ouzounov, A.V. Karelin, D.V. Davidenko, 2015, published in Geomagnetizm i Aeronomiya, 2015, Vol. 55, No. 4, pp. 540–558.

Physical Bases of the Generation of ShortTerm Earthquake

Precursors: A Complex Model of IonizationInduced Geophysical
Processes in the Lithosphere–Atmosphere–Ionosphere–
Magnetosphere System
S. A. Pulinetsa, D. P. Ouzounovb, A. V. Karelinc, and D. V. Davidenkoa, d
a
Space Research Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Profsoyuznaya ul. 84/32, Moscow, 117997 Russia
b
Chapman University, One University Drive, Orange, California, 92866 USA
c
Central Scientific Research Institute of Mechanical Engineering,
ul. Pionerskaya 4, Korolev, Moscow Region, 141070 Russia
d Korolev RocketSpace Corporation Energiya, ul. Lenina 4a, Korolev, Moscow Region, 141070 Russia

email: pulse@rssi.ru; dim.ouzounov@gmail.com; avkarelin@mail.ru; davidenkoe5@rambler.ru

Received February 23, 2015

Abstract—This paper describes the current understanding of the interaction between geospheres from a com
plex set of physical and chemical processes under the influence of ionization. The sources of ionization
involve the Earth’s natural radioactivity and its intensification before earthquakes in seismically active
regions, anthropogenic radioactivity caused by nuclear weapon testing and accidents in nuclear power plants
and radioactive waste storage, the impact of galactic and solar cosmic rays, and active geophysical experi
ments using artificial ionization equipment. This approach treats the environment as an open complex system
with dissipation, where inherent processes can be considered in the framework of the synergistic approach.
We demonstrate the synergy between the evolution of thermal and electromagnetic anomalies in the Earth’s
atmosphere, ionosphere, and magnetosphere. This makes it possible to determine the direction of the inter
action process, which is especially important in applications related to shortterm earthquake prediction.
That is why the emphasis in this study is on the processes proceeding the final stage of earthquake prepara
tion; the effects of other ionization sources are used to demonstrate that the model is versatile and broadly
applicable in geophysics.
DOI: 10.1134/S0016793215040131

1. INTRODUCTION. MODEL FRAMEWORK
ON THE EXAMPLE OF EARTQUAKE
PREPARATION
The entire history of shortterm earthquake pre
diction based on the socalled physical precursors
(Scholz et al., 1973) is associated with the record of
different anomalies of geophysical fields and discus
sions of the definition and quality characteristics of
precursors (Cicerone et al., 2009). There were studies
with a detailed description of these characteristics,
dependences on the earthquake time and magnitude,
and many models. Almost each of the precursors had
its own model. Here, a natural question arises: how
can the essentially consolidated process of crustal
deformation and subsequent disruption cause such a
variety of quite different processes as those described
by the different models? Often, several models were
proposed for the same precursors (Liperovskii et al.,
2008). In view of the obvious absurdity of this situa
tion, the construction of a model of lithosphere–
atmosphere–ionosphere–magnetosphere interac
tions was based from the very beginning on the
description of all the observed anomalies within the
unified view of seismic event preparation as a complex
open dissipative system, in which all processes occur
in a certain sequence and the anomalies are caused by
an earlier anomaly, being themselves a source of subse
quent anomaly (Pulinets and Ouzounov, 2010; Puli
nets and Ouzounov, 2011; Pulinets, 2011a; 2011b).
This sequence of processes is shown in Fig. 1.
A careful analysis of this schematic makes it possi
ble to divide the observed effects into three categories:
thermal (left panel of the figure), atmospheric or cloud
(middle panel of the figure), and electromagnetic or
ionospheric–magnetospheric (right panel of the fig
ure). In the thermal category, the main process is the
emission of latent heat of evaporation during the con
densation of water vapor on the ions induced by the
ionization of molecules of atmospheric gases by
radon. Near the Earth’s surface, thermal anomalies
manifest themselves as linear structures elongated
along active faults; then, the horizontal gradients of
temperature and pressure trigger the process of mixing
and the generation of a vertical upward flow, because

521
522 PULINETS et al.

Capture of VLF
noises, precipitation
Jet streams of high energy electrons
Anomalies in outgoing
longwave infrared Longitudinal inhomogeneities
radiation (OLR) Formation of temperature in the electron concentration
and pressure anomalies in the magnetosphere

Growth Effects of anomalous

of air temperature Linear cloud structures electric field
formation in the ionosphere

Release of latent heat Convective lifting of ions, Growth in the atmospheric

of condensation separation of charges, electric field
drift in the electric field

Decrease Ioninduced nucleation (IIN) Changes in boundary

in air humidity layer conductivity

Ionization of air molecules

Activation of faults – changes in permeability,

migration of gases, including radon emanation

Fig. 1. Schematic of the model of complex couplings in the lithosphere–atmosphere–ionosphere–magnetosphere system.

the air temperature is higher over the earthquake prep
aration area than outside it. As a result, because of the
inverse cascade process (the development of turbu
lence with increasing spatial scale) (Levina et al.,
2000), smallscale turbulence leads to the formation of
a largescale structure—a heat spot at the level of the
top of the clouds from 10 to 12 km (outgoing longwave
infrared radiation—OLR).
Atmospheric and electromagnetic processes
“operate” jointly: the vertical convection caused by
latent heat of evaporation due to water vapor conden
sation on ions lifts ion clusters, which leads to the
expulsion of light ions and a change in atmospheric
conductivity in the boundary layer (the boundary layer
thickness varies during the day from a few hundred
meters in predawn hours to a few kilometers in the
afternoon). In turn, the vertical electric field above the
faults supports the linear structure of cluster ion flows
(condensation nuclei), which leads to the formation of
linear cloud structures—one of the shortterm earth
quake precursors (Morozova, 1993, 2005).
Atmospheric anomalies observed before earth
quakes include not only the formation of linear cloud
structures but also jet streams. These are horizontal
flows of air at a height of 6 to 30 km with a length of a
few thousand kilometers (50–100 km in diameter).
The wind velocity near the jet stream axis reaches
200–300 km/h. Subtropical jet streams are normally
observed at a level of 300 mbar, i.e., at the same height
as the OLR (9–12 km). Since the OLR spot is actually
a lowpressure area, the end points of seismogenic jet
streams point to the location of a future earthquake
epicenter. An additional distinctive feature of these
streams is the fact that their position remains
unchanged for a few hours (Wu and Tikhonov, 2014).
The generation of anomalies in the ionosphere and
magnetosphere is mainly conditioned by anomalies in
atmospheric electricity associated with a change in the
conductivity of the atmospheric boundary layer. These
anomalies contribute to the generation of abnormal
electric fields in the ionosphere, leading to ion drift,
the formation of largescale inhomogeneities in the
electron concentration, and variations in the temper
ature of ions and electrons. Modification of the whole
magnetospheric tube relying on the earthquake prepa
ration area leads to the formation of ionospheric inho
mogeneities, both over the earthquake preparation
area and at the magnetically conjugated point. The

GEOMAGNETISM AND AERONOMY Vol. 55 No. 4 2015

 PHYSICAL BASES OF THE GENERATION OF SHORTTERM EARTHQUAKE PRECURSORS 523

4
Variation of OLR, W/m2 ΔTEC, L’Aquila 3

2 Anomaly of OLR
+2σ
0

–2 –2σ
Variation in temperature, °С

1 4 8 11 1418 21 24 28 31 3 7 10 13 17 20 23 27 2 5 9 12 15 19 22 25 29 1 4 8 11 1418 21 24 28 1

0.4
0.2 Air temperature by NCEP data +2σ
0
–0.2 –2σ
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 5 10 15 20 25 2 7 12 17 22 27 1 6 11 16 21 26 1

5000
4000
Statistical trend of radon activity
3000
2000
1000
8
61 6 11 16 21 26 31 5 10 15 20 25 2 7 12 17 22 27 1 6 11 16 21 26 1
4
2 Seismic activity
0
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 5 10 15 20 25 2 7 12 17 22 27 1 6 11 16 21 26 1

Fig. 2. Temporal dynamics of radon release and variations of atmospheric and ionospheric parameters before the L’Aquila earth
quake.

scattering of VLF noises into the modified magneto ance of increased radon (Giuliani et al., 2009), an
spheric tube leads to an increased level of VLF noises increased surface temperature of air, OLR anomaly,
inside the given tube, as well as to more effective inter and, finally, an ionospheric anomaly can be seen. It
action of VLF radiation with energetic electrons of should also be noted that all of these anomalies appear
radiation belts and to their stimulated precipitation within the earthquake preparation zone (Dobrovolsky
before earthquakes (Pulinets et al., 2002; Anagnosto et al., 1979).
poulos et al., 2012).
In fact, the thermal anomalies arising on the
Thus, the given model makes it possible not only to Earth’s surface are a link between seismology (which
record a set of different physical parameters but also to determines the size of the earthquake preparation area
perform a targeted search of shortterm precursors from seismic and geochemical data) and the lithos
appearing in a certain time sequence with some delay phere–atmosphere–ionosphere model describing the
as the height at which the recorded anomaly appears precursor effects in the atmosphere and ionosphere. In
increases. The first record of such a sequence was addition, they provide a key to the use of spacemoni
obtained for the L’Aquila earthquake in April of 2009. toring data. If we use the given concept that thermal
This result is shown in Fig. 2; the sequential appear anomalies are generated from the emission of latent

GEOMAGNETISM AND AERONOMY Vol. 55 No. 4 2015

524 PULINETS et al.
heat of evaporation during the condensation of water
vapors on ions formed in the surfaceair ionization by
radon, we have a tool that allows us to track the spatial
distribution and dynamics of radon release before
earthquakes on vast areas of hundreds of thousands of
square kilometers, which cannot be provided by any
groundbased methods of geochemical monitoring.
Thus, we propose an efficient interface between classi
cal seismology and tectonophysics, which describe the
Earth’s crust dynamics during the preparation of
strong earthquakes through geochemistry (the change
in the migration of gases during the preparation,
including the dynamics of radon variations) to thermal
anomalies and other anomalies of variations in atmo
spheric and ionospheric parameters. The fact that the
manifestations of seismic (Papadopoulos, 2009, geo
dynamic (Plastino et al., 2010), geochemical (Bon
fanti et al., 2012), surfaceheat (Pergola et al., 2010),
and many anomalies in the atmosphere, ionosphere,
and magnetosphere (Pulinets et al, 2009; Pulinets,
2011a, 2011b; Rozhnoi et al., 2009; Anagnastopoulos
et al., 2012; Davidenko, 2013) are continuous, syn
chronous, and local in the final stages of the prepara
tion of the earthquake in L’Aquila (Italy) on April 6,
2009, is evidence that all of the recorded anomalies are
links of one and the same chain—a complex, com
bined process of the preparation of a catastrophic
event that can be described by the synergistic approach
(Pulinets, 2011a).
Actually, the main objective of this study is to rea
sonably demonstrate that multiple shortterm precur
sors are elements of a complex system at the stage of its
approaching a catastrophic event rather than indepen
dent elements.
2. SYSTEMIC APPROACH
TO THE EARTHQUAKE
PREPARATION PROBLEM
The complex model of coupling between geoeffec
tive phenomena in the Earth’s lithosphere, atmo
sphere, and ionosphere (LAIC) was initiated in 1998
(Pulinets et al., 1998) and through several modifica
tions (Pulinets et al, 2000, 2002, 2006; Kim et al.,
2002; Pulinets and Boyarchuk, 2004) was completed
quite recently (Pulinets and Ouzounov, 2010; Pulinets
and Ouzounov, 2011). The main difference of this
model from many others is that it has an interdiscipli
nary character, with the use of methods of seismology,
geochemistry, atmospheric chemistry, meteorology,
thermodynamics, atmospheric electricity, plasma
physics, electrodynamics, space plasma, etc. The pro
cesses described in the model occur in different geo
physical shells starting from the Earth’s crust, through
the atmosphere and ionosphere, and up to the mag
netosphere. To trace the development of anomalies as
the earthquake time approaches, we should observe
(or simulate) a number of different parameters in var
ious geophysical environments. This led to the idea of
GEOMAGNETISM AND AERONOMY
a multiparameter approach to monitoring earthquake
precursors (Ouzounov et al., 2011, 2012; Pulinets,
2012). The model shows a substantially nonlinear
character when different key parameters have thresh
old values that lead to the formation of characteristic
branching points. Most importantly, these processes
have a direction that is typical for complex chaotic
processes leading to a critical state of the system. Being
inherent to most natural, irreversible processes (espe
cially in biology), this feature was called by Eddington
the “arrow of time” (Eddington, 1928). In thermody
namics (thermodynamic processes largely control the
interaction of geophysical shells in our model), the
direction of processes is described by the entropy
growth rate (Kondepudi and Prigogine, 1998). In seis
mology, the maximum entropy method is used to fore
cast past earthquakes (Akopyan, 1998). Recently, a
similar approach to interpreting the dynamics of the b
parameter in the Gutenberg–Richter law has been
proposed in terms of the maximum entropy method
(De Santis et al., 2011. In this approach, the L’Aquila
earthquake in 2009 was identified as a chaotic process
(De Santis et al., 2010).
We consider those aspects of the model that dem
onstrate synergy of various processes—the interaction
of subsystems leading to an increase in both entropy
and selforganization (Fig. 3). We can divide the com
plex system of precursor generation into several sub
systems: (1) radon migration in the Earth’s crust and
its emanation into the atmosphere (RN); (2) ioniza
tion of the boundary layer by radon and formation of
cluster ions through nucleation (IonInduced Nucle
ation—IIN); (3) latent heat release due to water vapor
condensation on ions (LH); (4) changes in atmo
spheric electricity through changes in conductivity
due to the formation of cluster ions and interaction
with aerosols (AE); (5) thermodynamic processes
leading to the formation of anomalous fluxes of latent
heat and spots of outgoing longwave radiation (THD);
(6) changes in atmospheric parameters such as air
temperature, relative humidity, and pressure, as well as
formation of anomalous linear cloud structures and jet
streams (MET); (7) ionospheric effects (anomalous
variations in the plasma concentration and tempera
ture), changes in the ion composition, optical radia
tions, ELF and VLF radiations, interaction with the
magnetospheric tube, and stimulated precipitation of
particles (IMC); (8) anomalies in the radiowave prop
agation (in the VLF, HF, and UHF frequency bands)
by changing the atmospheric and ionospheric param
eters (RWP); and (9) generation of electromagnetic
radiations in different (ELF, VLF, and UHF) fre
quency bands (EME).
Thus, the multicomponent complex system of the
combined model of coupling between geoeffective
phenomena in the Earth’s lithosphere, atmosphere,
and ionosphere (Fig. 1) is divided into subsystems as
proposed for the verification and validation of models
(Thacker et al., 2004). The representation of the
Vol. 55 No. 4 2015
 PHYSICAL BASES OF THE GENERATION OF SHORTTERM EARTHQUAKE PRECURSORS
Complex system
LAIC
model
RN IIN LH AE
Fig. 3. Interactions of geospheres as a complex system (taken from (Thaker et al., 2004] and modified).
model as a complex graph (Fig. 3) makes it possible to
track the hierarchy of the aforementioned subsystems,
each of which contributes to lowerlevel components,
and each of the components can be represented as
individual rather than complex problems. It should be
noted that the components of a subsystem may belong
to several subsystems partially or entirely, and this
ensures that the coupling between subsystems is of a
complex character. An example is the formation of
large ion clusters reaching aerosol sizes (~1–3 µm).
This process plays a key role in the dynamics of at least
7 subsystems: (1) the end product of the IIN sub
system; (2) the formation of large cluster ions leads to
the release of latent heat (LH) of evaporation due to
condensation of water vapors on ions; (3) an increase
in the concentration of large cluster ions expulsing
light ions leads to a decrease in the boundary layer
conductivity and a change in the local parameters of
the global electric circuit in the AE subsystem; (4) the
formation of large cluster ions leads to a change of
radiation parameters in the boundary layer and,
accordingly, in its thermodynamic properties (THD);
(5) large cluster ions are condensation nuclei for the
formation of linear cloud structures before earth
quakes (MET); (6) large cluster ions change (through
a change in air conductivity in the surface layer) the
conditions for the propagation of VLF signals in the
surface waveguide, leading to anomalies in the propa
gation of VLF waves; concurrently, these clusters can
form aerosol layers serving as a reflective screen for
VHF signals during their horizontal propagation
GEOMAGNETISM AND AERONOMY Vol. 55
525
Subsystems
THD MET IMC RWP EME
Components
Individual
tasks
(RWP); (7) electrified aerosol layers can generate
electrical discharges recorded as pulse signals over a
wide frequency band (for example, P–H pulses); rota
tional oscillations of complex ions can cause continu
ous UHF radiation as well as electromagnetic radia
tion recorded before the earthquake (EME).
Examples of individual problems involve the calcu
lation of the concentration of ions as a result of ioniza
tion by radon or the calculation of the change in air
conductivity or the estimation of the released latent
heat.
It should be noted that the coupling of subsystems
occurs through their components by creating positive
and negative feedbacks. For example, a high relative
air humidity contributes to the formation of large clus
ter ions during the IIN process, while the intense con
densation of water vapor on ions leads to a decrease in
the relative humidity of air. The presence of feedbacks
automatically leads to different thresholds in the sys
tem, which can eventually yield ambiguous final
results. The size and stability of large cluster ions
formed during IIN depend mainly on the concentra
tion of ions and relative humidity (Pulinets et al.,
2006). The initial stage of IIN is described was
described in (Yu and Turco, 2001) when studying the
tropospheric ionization by galactic cosmic rays. There
are different versions of IIN models (Laakso et al.,
2002).
No. 4 2015
526 PULINETS et al.
3. CORRECTION OF CHEMICAL POTENTIAL
AS AN INTEGRAL PARAMETER
According to the modern view, the final stage of
earthquake preparation is the transition of the system
from the chaotic state to selforganization, which aims
to reach a critical state and pass the system to another
quality. These processes are described within nonlin
ear thermodynamics and synergetics (Kondepudi and
Prigogine, 1998). Here, the system must have some
integral parameters with threshold values. Exceeding a
threshold value means that the system starts to
approach to a critical state (in our case, to the final
stage of the earthquake preparation—rupture). In
addition, the term “integral” implies that the parame
ter describes the behavior of several processes concur
rently involved in the system transition to the critical
state. As a candidate, we consider a correction of the
chemical potential of water vapor at a high level of ion
ization.
Pulinets et al. (2006) showed that the latent heat for
water molecules at phase transitions is equal to its
chemical potential or to the work function when the
molecule separates from water droplet. In multicom
ponent media with external forcing, the relative
humidity can be represented as
exp ( − U (t ) kT )
H (t ) =
exp ( − U 0 kT )
(1)
( )
U − U (t ) ⎛ ⎞
= exp ⎜ − 0.032Δ U 2cos t ⎟ ,
2
= exp 0
kT ⎝ (kT ) ⎠ ative variations in the electron concentration in the
where U(t) = U0 + ΔUcos2 t, where ΔU is the volume
averaged correction of chemical potential, arising
from external forcing of the environment. The diurnal
variations in the intensity of solar radiation can be
expressed as the square of cosine of time. Also, the
value of U0 corresponds to the boiling temperature.
ΔU is a complex parameter reflecting the formation of
cluster ions. The larger the ΔU, the higher the energy
of water molecule binding with ions and the more sta
ble the cluster ions (the more lifetime before recombi
nation), and the larger they can become due to the
addition water molecules to them. At present, the size
distributions of cluster ions in the Earth’s atmosphere
have been widely studied (Hõrrak et al., 1998; Hir
sikko, 2011). Experimental measurements reveal a
wide range of sizes of atmospheric cluster ions. Exper
imental studies of atmospheric processes also proved
that the ions accelerate the water vapor condensation
and are themselves very good condensation nuclei
(Laakso et al., 2003; Svensmark et al., 2007). Labora
tory experiments with a corona discharge at atmo
spheric pressure demonstrated that the size of ioniza
tioninduced clusters depends almost linearly on the
relative humidity of air (Sekimoto and Takayama,
2007). Also, these experiments provided an excellent
demonstration that the generated particles are a cen
GEOMAGNETISM AND AERONOMY
tral ion with sheath of water molecules; here, both
positive and negative ions are equally hydrated.
Also, it is well known that the cluster ion size plays
a key role in determining the boundary layer conduc
tivity due to the difference in the mobility of ions of
different sizes (Hõrrak, 2001). According to this
study, the mobility of different ions varies in the range
from 3.14 cm2 W–1 s–1 under normal conditions to
0.00041 cm2 W–1 s–1 for large ions. An increased con
centration of small and mediumsize ions increases
the electrical conductivity in the boundary layer; how
ever, at a sufficiently high concentration of large clus
ter ions, the electrical conductivity of the boundary
layer is significantly reduced.
The ion concentration depends not only on the
ionization level, but also on losses associated with the
weather and recombination conditions. The amount
of ion growth due to nucleation depends on the ion
concentration and relative humidity as formation fac
tors and weather conditions, as well as turbulent diffu
sion and the electric field, which can remove ions from
the formation and growth area. All of these external
conditions are taken into account by the use of a
parameter of the correction of chemical potential ΔU.
Starting from a certain critical value, this parameter
changes the atmospheric electricity state, leading also
to changes in the electron concentration variations in
the ionosphere by 180° (increase/decrease in bound
ary layer conductivity—negative/positive variations in
the electron concentration in the ionosphere). The
first mechanism of the formation of positive and neg
ionosphere was proposed in (Pulinets, 2009) and con
firmed experimentally in (Pulinets, 2012; Davidenko,
2013; Pulinets and Davidenko, 2014).
According to (Boyarchuk et al., 2006), the value of
ΔU can be expressed using the traditional meteorolog
ical parameters: air temperature Tg at the Earth’s sur
face and relative humidity of air H:
ΔU = 5.8 × 10–10(20Tg + 5463)2 ln(100/H), (2)
where ΔU is expressed in eV.
Statistical data processing for a large number of
strong earthquakes occurred over the past few years
has not revealed a certain critical value for the param
eter ΔU: the data processing differs for various loca
tions and may be highly dependent on meteorological
conditions, topography, and radon concentration in a
given geographical region. However, the temporal
dynamics of the parameter ΔU and its spatial distribu
tion leave no doubt that they are associated with the
process of earthquake preparation. Figure 4a shows
the tectonic structure in the area of the April 20, 2013
strong (M7.0) earthquake in the Sichuan province
(China). The main fault in the Sichuan province
(Lunmenshan) stretches from southwest to northeast.
This fault is reflected on the spatial distribution of ΔU
(Fig. 4b) as a dark bar with a configuration similar to
Vol. 55 No. 4 2015
 PHYSICAL BASES OF THE GENERATION OF SHORTTERM EARTHQUAKE PRECURSORS 527

(a) (b)
ΔU 17 April, 2013 0900 UT
102° E 103° 104° 105° 106° 107° 0.040
Ruptures of the Wenchuan earthquake Wudu 0.037
34°
Holocene fault Juzangou
Late Pleistocene fault Mianxian
0.035
Other faults
Buried fault
Wenxian Hanzhong
33° N
Inferred fault
Cingchuan
0.032 33°
Piagwu Guangyuan
0.030
Maerkang e
on Maoxian AnxianJiangyou
Beiehuan 32° 0.027
32°
ult z Backrange fault 0.024
a

Latitude
f Wenchuan Mianyang 0 100 km
an Mianzhu Centarl fault
sh Forerange fault 0.022
en Deyang

ng
m Dujiangyan Rangefront buried fault 31° 0.019 31°
Lo Chengdu
Dayi 0.017
Guang’an
Beaking

Kongding
Uiding
Loshan
Thanquan Ya’an Yinchuan 30°
0.014 30°
Yingjing
Linchnou
0.011
1
Emeishan
0.009
Shimian Ebian 3
2
0.006
29°
Shlnian
Mabian
Lhasa
4 29°
0 500 km Guiyang 0.004
Mianning Kunming
0.001 28°
eV 101° 102° 103° 104° 105° 106° 107°
Longitude
(c)
ΔU, eV Coordinates 31° N 104° E

0.03

0.02

0.01

0 5 10 15 20 25 30
April, 2013

Fig. 4. Tectonic configuration in the vicinity of the epicenter of the M7.0 Lushan Earthquake on April 20, 2013 (a); spatial dis
tribution of chemical potential correction 3 days before the Lushan earthquake (the epicenter is marked by an asterisk) (b); and
temporal dynamics of chemical potential correction at the point of its maximum shown as a white triangle in Fig. 4 (c).

the fault shown in Fig. 4a. The epicenter is marked by example, a M9.3 catastrophic earthquake occurred on
an asterisk. Parallel to the fault, one can see a dark December 26, 2004, near the Island of Sumatra with a
gray spot with a white triangle inside marking the max latent heat flux of around 100 W/m2, which was
imum of ΔU anomaly over three days before the earth observed continuously for 10 days over an area of nine
quake. Figure 4c shows the temporal dynamics ΔU at cells of 200 × 200 km. Before this earthquake, the
the point marked by a white triangle. It is characteristic amount of energy released was ~3.1 × 1019 J, which was
that this dynamics repeats the standard pattern of radon almost an order of magnitude greater than the
emission dynamics before earthquakes described in mechanical energy released at the time of the earth
many studies, for example (Scholz et al., 1973). quake (4.3 × 1018 J) (Pulinets et al., 2007). There are
also experimental data on an increase in air tempera
ture near the Earth’s surface over areas of hundreds of
4. EVOLUTION OF THE EARTHQUAKE thousands of square kilometers (Mil’kis, 1986;
PREPARATION AS AN OPEN Dunajecka and Pulinets, 2005; Jing et al., 2013). The
PHYSICAL SYSTEM
anomalous fluxes of outgoing longwave radiation
Theoretical estimates and experimental data from (OLR) also become quite appreciable (from 10 to
more than a hundred recent, strong earthquakes over 200 W/m2) (Ouzounov et al., 2006; 2007; Li et al.,
the last decade have shown that a huge amount of ther 2001). A natural question arises: can the relatively
mal energy is released before each earthquake. For weak radon fluxes (according to some critics of the

GEOMAGNETISM AND AERONOMY Vol. 55 No. 4 2015

528 PULINETS et al.
proposed concept) create such a huge amount of
energy and what is the physical mechanism?
First, we discuss whether the energy fluxes are so
weak during radon emanation from the Earth’s crust.
To this end, we modify the estimates obtained in
(Chernogor, 2012) for the case of the April 6, 2009,
earthquake in L’Aquila, Italy (Fig. 2). In natural con
ditions, the rate of ionization of air molecules is qi0 ≈
107 m–3 s–1. With increased radon activity before
earthquakes, the ionization rate can reach values of
qi ≤ 1010 m–3 s–1. The layer thickness during the ioniza
tion does not exceed 10 m; however, the air layer with
radon can reach 1 km or more because of turbulent
diffusion. The power of the radon precursor can be
estimated as
Pq = εiqiSeqΔzt, (3)
where Δzt = (DtΔt)1/2 is the thickness of the ionized air
layer formed over time Δt from turbulent diffusion and Dt
is the coefficient of turbulent diffusion. For Dt = 102 m2 s–1
and Δt = 105 s, we obtain Δz ≈ 103 m.
For the L’Aquila earthquake with a magnitude of
M6.3, the area of the earthquake preparation field
with an expected radon release, the zone radius is R =
100.43M = 513 km and S = 8 × 1011 m2 (Dobrovolsky
et al., 1979). For qi = 1010 m3 s–1, the power of the
radon precursor is Pq= 4 × 107 W, and the energy
released over time Δt = 105 s is Eq = PqΔt = 4 × 1012 J.
The central point explaining the essence of cou
plings in the lithosphere—atmosphere–ionosphere–
magnetosphere model is the fact that radon itself does
not produce heat. Radon through air ionization pro
duces ions—centers of water vapor condensation—
and it is the condensation that serves as a source of
thermal energy. Actually, we can say that radon ini
tiates a reaction of heterogeneous catalysis, which
leads to a change in the relation between the two water
phase state with the release of latent heat because the
condensation reaction is exothermic, i.e., proceeds
with a release of thermal energy. How effective (in
terms of energy release) is the change in the relation of
the water phase state? Laakso et al. (2003) showed that
the increase in energy release occurs due to the Cou
lomb interaction between the central ion and water
molecules, and this amounts to an almost fivefold
increase. Svensmark et al. (2007) conducted labora
tory experiments to show that the condensation rate is
proportional to the concentration of ions. However,
the authors of these studies disregarded the fact that
the amount of released thermal energy is proportional
to the size of the particle (cluster ion) generated due to
a process called the ioninduced nucleation (IIN).
Our estimates show that it is this factor that largely
serves as the main source of high energetic efficiency
of the IIN process.
Thus, the decay of radon 222Rn releases αparticles
with energy Eα = 5.46 MeV. Since the energy of atmo
GEOMAGNETISM AND AERONOMY
spheric gas ionization is in the range from 10 to 30 eV,
each αparticle released by radon can produce on the
average ~3 × 105 electron–ion pairs. It is known from
literature data (Segovia et al., 2005; I·nan et al., 2008;
Spivak, 2008) that the average radon activity near the
Earth’s surface is ~2000 Bq/m3. Here, it should be
noted that the measurements were performed at a
depth of around 70 cm from the Earth’s surface in
three quite different geological regions (Mexico, Tur
key, and Russia). These were not periods of increased
seismic activity. Since radon is known to be six times
heavier than air, its accumulation occurs in lowlands
(ravines, gorges, and folds); this fact explains the
choice of the height at which the measurements were
conducted. Also, it is known that during the prepara
tion of earthquakes, the radon activity can increase by
an order of magnitude; however, the reference level for
calculation was taken of order of ~2000 Bq/m3. Then,
in view of the ionization capacity of radon αparticles
of ~3 × 105 electron–ion pairs, the ionformation rate
is ~6 × 108 m–3 s–1. A hydrated ion of a size of around
1–3 µm (particles of this size range are observed by the
AERONET network a few days before the earthquake)
contains around 0.4 × 1012 water molecules. The latent
heat constant U0 is
U0 ~ 40.68 × 103 J/mole (1 mole = 6.022 × 1023).
For a given radon activity and the formation of
hydrated ions of a size of ~1 µm, the release of latent
heat is ~16 W/m2, which is consistent with experimen
tally recorded fluxes of outgoing longwave infrared
radiation (Ouzounov et al., 2007). Since 1 eV = 1.6 ×
10–19 J, a given radon activity of 2000 Bq/m3 leads to an
expenditure on ionization of 1.7 × 10–9 J/m3 s. The ratio
of IINinduced heat to the energy spent on the ioniza
tion of atmospheric gases is then 16/(1.7 × 10–9) ~ 1010,
which is evidence that the energetic efficiency of the
process is extremely high.
However, the question still remains: where is the
source of energy? The answer is quite simple: the
source is the Sun. When moisture is evaporated from
water, soil, and other places during the daily cycle, a
huge amount of solar thermal energy is converted into
latent heat and can be found in free water vapors in the
atmosphere. The appearance of a large number of
condensation nuclei as newly formed ions (by ioniza
tion) initiates a catalytic reaction of ion hydration with
a release of latent heat to the environment. Thus, our
system takes energy from the environment, which
allows us to specify it as a purely open system charac
terized by a state of instability leading to the initiation
of critical processes such as INN. The temperature
increase with a simultaneous moisture decrease was
confirmed by laboratory experiments with radon
injected into an air chamber of humidity of around
70% (i.e., far from saturation) (Martinelli et al., 2014).
The small magnitudes of changes in humidity and
Vol. 55 No. 4 2015
 PHYSICAL BASES OF THE GENERATION OF SHORTTERM EARTHQUAKE PRECURSORS
temperature in the laboratory experiment clearly show
the difference between the open and closed systems.
The air volume of around 3 m3 in the chamber simply
could not release a larger amount of energy than con
tained in this volume of air, regardless of the radon con
centration, while the amount of energy supplied to the
reaction area is almost unlimited in an open system.
5. IONOSPHERIC PRECURSORS
AND THE GLOBAL ELECTRIC CIRCUIT
Seismic and ionospheric effects and the formation
of ionospheric anomalies observed over the prepara
tion areas of strong earthquakes have a history of more
than 50 years. A historical review of the study of seis
mic and ionospheric couplings can be found in (Puli
nets and Boyarchuk, 2004). The main trend in the
study of these couplings is a gradual transition from
the mechanisms that are based on the acoustic influ
ence on the atmosphere and ionosphere to the mech
anisms in which the key role is played by electromag
netic effects (primarily electric currents and fields).
This fact can be explained quite simply: there has been
recent evidence of the extremely low efficiency of
acoustic mechanisms. The ionospheric effects of giant
tsunamis (Sumatra 2004 and Tohoku 2011) were so
weak (0.1–0.4 TECU for the Sumatra tsunami (Liu
et al., 2006; Astafyeva and Afraimovich, 2006) and
0.5–1.5 TECU for the tsunami in Japan after the cat
astrophic earthquake in Tohoku (Galvan et al., 2012)
that it is rather difficult to assume any mechanical
motion before the earthquake that is capable of creat
ing ionospheric disturbances on an order of magnitude
stronger than those observed after the largest tsunamis
known in the history. Before earthquakes, we normally
observe ionospheric disturbances of a few TECU or
more, which indicates that there must be another,
more efficient, mechanism for disturbance transfer in
the ionosphere. Another reason is the form and
dynamics of disturbances observed in the ionosphere.
It is quite natural that if the disturbance is caused by a
wave influence, such as an acoustic–gravity wave, the
result of the wave influence must also have some fea
tures of wave disturbance: a periodic structure or move
somewhere with some speed (for example, the speed
of sound). However, nothing of this kind happens. The
ionospheric anomalies observed before earthquakes
are stationary; they can last for a few hours and then
disappear. Therefore, we hereafter discuss only the
ionospheric effects associated with electromagnetic
interaction between the seismically active area and the
ionosphere.
The first versions of seismoionospheric coupling
models were based on direct calculations of the effect
of the seismogenic electric field that penetrates from
the Earth’s surface into the ionosphere (Kim et al.,
1994; Pulinets et al., 1998; 2000; 2002). These models
are based on the methodology developed by Park and
Dejnakarintra (1973), who calculated the electric field
GEOMAGNETISM AND AERONOMY Vol. 55 No. 4
529
penetration from a storm cloud into the ionosphere.
The latest version of this approach can be found in
(Kim et al., 2012), where the anisotropy of electrical
conductivity of the ionosphere is treated more cor
rectly than in previous publications. However, this
approach is insufficient from several points of view: (a)
the anomalous electric field is taken as a given fact,
without explaining its physical nature; (b) the mecha
nism fails for equatorial latitudes; and (c) for a more or
less effective penetration into the ionosphere, the
value of the electric field at the Earth’s surface should
be at least 1000 V/m, which is observed not as fre
quently, while ionospheric anomalies before earth
quakes are recorded regularly, including anomalies
over the sea surface (Li and Parrot, 2013).
One of the modern trends in the modeling of
seismoionospheric coupling is the arbitrary introduc
tion of electric currents and fields at different altitudes
(Sorokin, 2007; Klimenko et al., 2011; Kuo et al.,
2011; Namgaladze et al., 2012). As a driver for the
mechanism external, Sorokin (2007) uses an external
current generated by charged aerosols, which may be
injected into the atmosphere in seismically active
areas. There are two main difficulties faced by every
reader in understanding this conception: (a) until now,
there have been no scientific publications describing
experimental data on flows of charged aerosols
injected into the atmosphere before an earthquake;
(b) the value of the external electric current used by
the author for calculations (4 × 10–6 A/m2), is six
orders of magnitude greater than the current in fair
weather flowing in the global electric circuit—this is
an incredible value, especially because this current
must flow over vast areas of the earthquake preparation
region (hundreds of thousands of square kilometers).
In seismiionospheric coupling, the scale of electric
field inhomogeneity is of great importance. Pulinets
et al. (2000) showed that the efficiency of electric field
penetration into the ionosphere for an anomalous
electric field area with linear dimensions of less than
200 km is extremely small.
A similar approach is used by Kuo et al. (2011),
who consider the electric field effects in the equatorial
ionosphere; its generation also requires an additional
vertical electric current in the atmosphere. The differ
ence is that the external current source used by the
authors here is stressactivated conductivity of rocks
due to ptype conductivity (phole is the electron def
icit in a crystalline lattice) (Freund, 2010). Their arbi
trary source (no experimental measurements existed)
yields an external current that is also essentially stron
ger than the vertical electric current at fair weather
(4 × 10–12 A/m2) and ranges from 10–7 to 10–5 A/m2.
This means that even the minimum current density
used in their model is five orders of magnitude greater
than the natural value. In addition, it should be taken
into account that the holes produce a positive poten
tial at the surface. In natural conditions, the Earth is
2015
530 PULINETS et al.
negatively charged with respect to the ionosphere.
This means that there should be a current anomalous
intensity as well and the electric field must “overturn”
with respect to the direction of the vertical electric
field at fair weather. Actually, a situation of thunder
storm electricity should arise, when the atmosphere
has a reverse current flow charging the Earth’s iono
sphere.
Both mechanisms described above have a signifi
cant drawback: they are fixed to the land. Neither
aerosol flows nor the “holes” going to the surface are
possible in the ocean, and this contradicts with recent
data obtained by the DEMETER satellite (Li and Par
rot, 2013, showing that the probability of observed
ionospheric precursors over the ocean is higher than
over land.
The second problem of these mechanisms is that
they fail to describe the experimentally observed
change in the sign of seismic and ionospheric anoma
lies. The stressactivated conductivity can only pro
vide a positive charge on the Earth’s surface. The
indefinite and absolutely undetermined ions M– arising
in the modified version of the model (Kuo et al., 2014)
only show that the authors realize the problem but are
yet unable to resolve this contradiction.
Despite the above comments, it should be noted
that all of the model calculations (Klimenko et al.,
2011; Kuo et al., 2011; Namgaladze et al., 2012) agree
on the principal point that a zonal electric field in the
ionosphere of a few mV/m can produce anomalies
similar to experimentally recorded deviations of the
electron concentration before earthquakes. This fact
immediately creates a demand for a physical mecha
nism that can produce those fields in the ionosphere at
the last stage of the earthquake preparation cycle. The
idea of this mechanism was proposed in (Pulinets,
2009). This has not been a model yet, because there
have been no actual calculations, especially for the
most problematic range of heights from 60 km (this
value is taken as the ionospheric layer height in models
of the global electric circuit); however, the proposed
idea points to a prospective direction, and this direc
tion can most likely provide a breakthrough in modern
ionospheric physics, not only in terms of seismoion
ospheric coupling but also for all problems in the
interaction between the atmosphere and ionosphere.
This approach require neither extraordinary currents
exceeding the undisturbed value by five to six orders
nor increased values of the electric field at the Earth’s
surface in seismically active areas.
5.1. The Conception of Global Electric Circuit
and the Atmosphere–Ionosphere Interaction
Wilson (Wilson, 1921) appears to be the first
researcher to attempt to substantiate the existence of
the global atmosphere–ionosphere interaction due to
the production of a constant potential difference
GEOMAGNETISM AND AERONOMY
between the Earth’s surface and the ionosphere by
thunderstorm activity. For more than 90 years of
research in this field, great progress has been achieved
in understanding the physical processes, but the very
concept of the global electric circuit (GEC) remains
generally unchanged. The main driver of this circuit is
global thunderstorm activity and large convective
structures that create an upward vertical current with
an integral value over the entire planetary surface of
approximately ~10 3 A. The reverse current flows in a
circuit in areas of fair weather. The density of this cur
rent is very small: ~4 × 10–12 A/m2, and the vertical
gradient of the electric field in areas of fair weather is
100–150 V/m. All of these processes are distributed
over the Earth’s surface; however, for some estimates,
the equivalent electrical schematic of the GEC can be
represented as concentrated elements (Fig. 5). More
detailed information about the GEC can be found in
(Markson, 2007; Williams, 2009; Mareev, 2010;
Rycroft et al., 2012). Here, we focus on the atmo
spheric layer from the Earth’s surface to a height of 1–
2 km, which is called the boundary layer (Stull, 1988).
In the schematic, this layer is matched by the variable
resistance RBL. Why do we pay such attention to this
layer? “The variations are on average about ~30% and
are caused by changing ionization from radioactive
materials near the ground and by varying aerosol con
centrations in the lower troposphere. The first 2 km of
the atmosphere contribute about 50% of the first
13 km and about 95 percent to the total columnar
resistance. (Gringel, 1986)”
Thus, changing the resistance of the atmospheric
and tropospheric boundary layer, we change the cur
rent flowing between the ionosphere and the Earth, as
well as the ionospheric potential Vi. There is a great
deal of experimental data supporting this idea, as well
as the main result of the model presented here, on the
association of the ionization and formation of aerosols
with local anomalous variations in the Earth’s iono
sphere. Actually, we are dealing with a very effective
mechanism for the atmospheric effect on the iono
sphere through changed parameters of the boundary
layer.
Markson (2007) showed that during the testing of
nuclear weapons, the atmosphere experiences consider
able variations in the ionospheric potential Vi. In Fig. 6a,
these changes are marked by an oval in the left panel.
Since the testing had a significant impact on global
changes in the Earth’s ionosphere, their effect is much
stronger than the effect from the accident at the Cher
nobyl nuclear power plant in 1986 (the oval on the
right part of the panel).
It is known that galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) are a
source of ionization of the atmosphere. In this case,
the maximum of the height profile of ionization falls at
13–15 km (Gringel, 1986). The solar wind distur
bance from increased solar activity leads to an increase
in the solar wind velocity at the boundary of the mag
Vol. 55 No. 4 2015
 PHYSICAL BASES OF THE GENERATION OF SHORTTERM EARTHQUAKE PRECURSORS 531

Ionosphere ~250 kV in the tropopause is accompanied with latent heat

Ri
RS
RT
ε ~4 pA/m2
RBL
Earth
Fig. 5. Equivalent electrical schematic of the global elec
tric circuit (GEC).
netosphere. This leads to a decrease in the intensity of
cosmic rays caused by shielding of the Earth’s sur
rounding areas by the flux of highspeed solarwind
plasma. A shortterm decrease in the flux of cosmic
rays should lead to a reduction in the level of ion for
mation at heights of maximum relaxation of cosmic
rays and an increase in the resistance of the vertical
column of the atmosphere (Fig. 6b) (Gringel, 1986). It
should be noted that the ionization induced by GCRs
at the level of the tropopause also leads to the forma
tion of charged cluster ions because of their hydration
(Svensmark et al., 2007). It is these ion clusters that
lead to the formation of clouds (Svensmark and Friis
Christensen, 1997). Like in the surface layer during
the ionization by radon, the formation of ion clusters
release and the variations in the GCR fluxes (for
example, during Forbush decreases) are accompanied
with changes in the tropopause temperature. It is the
decrease in the tropopause temperature as a result of
the August 25, 2005, magnetic storm that led to the
rapid growth of tropical convection as a result of the
Current increased temperature difference between the oceanic
of good weather surface and the tropopause and to the development
Hurricane Katrina (Bondur et al., 2008).
As we have seen in Fig. 6a, the change in atmo
spheric conductivity leads to changes in the iono
E ~ 100 V/m spheric potential Vi. If these are are local changes, this
area should involve emerging largescale inhomoge
neities of the electron concentration that distinguish
this area from the concentration of the undisturbed
ionosphere. Nature and human activity allow us to
check this hypothesis.
The regular flows of dust and sand from the Sahara
across the Atlantic Ocean to the east coast of the
United States during dust storms in Western Sahara
are an example. The vertical profiles of atmospheric
conductivity are usually measured by balloon probes.
An example of such measurements is shown in Fig. 7a
(Gringel and Mühleisen, 1978). The air balloon was
launched at a distance of 2200 km west of the African
coast. It can be seen from the figure that there is a sig
nificant decrease in the air conductivity at heights of
1.7–3.7 km. The total decrease in conductivity of the
atmospheric column is estimated to be 30–50%. The
total content of dust particles in the layer was 1200 g–3.
Unfortunately, almost no such measurements are cur
rently conducted; however, we use them as estimates
for interpreting the results of ionospheric measure
ments over the sandstorm occurred on May 1, 2012
(Davidenko, 2013; Pulinets and Davidenko, 2014;
Pulinets et al., 2014). Figure 7b shows the differential

(a) h1, km (b)

400 160
7
Deposition of Sr90 (PBq)

Nuclear weapons testing

5 3 39 Re+(h1)
350 Vi
in the atmosphere 140 24
6
Ionospheric potential, kV

load Sr90 (mCi)

300 13 4 21 31 120 20
Stratospheric

5 18 9 10 (Δ – 691)
4 7 22 14 19 5
250 8 5 10 4 43 16 100 (λe)
4 6 7 47 16
200 54
32 99 3 14
21 2
80 4
(Δ – 782)
Chernobyl nuclear power
3 12
150 plant accident 60 Re(h1)
Stratospheric
load 2 8
100 40
Deposition
50 of radioactive precipitation 20 1 4
0 0 0 0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1015 1016 1017
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 Ω · m2
Year

Fig. 6. Variations in ionospheric potential Vi in periods of radioactive pollution of the atmosphere (a); averaged profile of specific
resistance of the atmosphere for quiet conditions (lower curve) and after solar flares of Aug. 8, 1972 (A691) and Apr. 14, 1978
(A782) (upper curves) (b).

GEOMAGNETISM AND AERONOMY Vol. 55 No. 4 2015

532 PULINETS et al.

(a) (b)
h, km Start coordinates 16.5° N, 37° W
Start time Nov. 26, 1973 14.42 GMT

10

May 1, 2012, 1400 UT May 1, 2012, 1600 UT

May 1, 2012, 1800 UT May 1, 2012, 2000 UT

Z°/cm–3
46
127 Layer of Saharan May 1, 2012, 2200 UT May 2, 2012, 0000 UT
Δλ 140 dus
44

λ
0 May 2, 2012, 0200 UT May 2, 2012, 0400 UT
1 10 50
10–14 Ohm–1 m–1 –10 –8 –6 –4 –2 0 2 4 6 8 10
TECU

Fig. 7. Vertical profile of atmospheric conductivity during the sandstorm in Western Sahara on November 26, 1973 (a); differential
maps of TEC for the period of 1400 UT (May 1, 2012) to 0400 UT (May 2, 2012) during the sandstorm in Western Sahara (b).

maps of the total electron content (TEC) for the
period from 1400 UT of May 1 to 0400 UT of 2 May.
The differential maps were constructed according to
TEC data as global maps in the IONEX (IONosphere
map EXchange) format, which are freely available on
the Internet. The spatial resolution of the maps is 2.5° by
latitude and 5° by longitude. As can be seen from this fig
ure, there is a longlived positive anomaly over the dust
cloud with a value reaching to around 10 TECU. On the
basis of these data, we can draw the following conclu
sions: (a) a decrease in conductivity of the atmo
spheric column in the ionosphere leads to the forma
tion of a positive anomaly in the electron concentra
tion over the area of changed conductivity and (b) a
decrease in the column conductivity by 30–50% leads
to an increase in the TEC value up to 10 TECU.
These changes in the ionosphere can be observed
after volcanic eruptions as well, when the atmosphere
receives a huge amount of volcanic ash, which likewise
reduces the conductivity in the boundary layer at a
height of 5–15 km. Examples of ionospheric variations
in the TEC after the eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull vol
cano in Iceland can be found in (Davidenko, 2013;
Pulinets and Davidenko, 2014; Pulinets et al., 2014).
The decreased conductivity of the boundary layer also
created conditions for the formation of positive anom
alies in the TEC over volcanic ash areas in Europe.
It would be interesting to check the opposite case: a
local increase in atmospheric conductivity, which
could lead to a decrease in the electron concentration
over the area of increased conductivity. These effects
are normally associated with ionization burst effects
and a sharp increase in the concentration of light ions
in the atmosphere (when large ion clusters have not
managed to appear). This can be expected, for exam
ple, as a result of nuclear weapon tests or emergencies
at nuclear power plants. We managed to record one of
the recent events of this kind: the underground explosion
of a nuclear warhead in North Korea on February 12,
2013 (Fig. 8). Due to the fact that the explosion

GEOMAGNETISM AND AERONOMY Vol. 55 No. 4 2015

 PHYSICAL BASES OF THE GENERATION OF SHORTTERM EARTHQUAKE PRECURSORS
occurred underground and a small amount of radioac
tive components leaked to the surface, the effect of
underground explosion was very weak. However, we
recorded a negative deviation of the TEC. Since the
wind was from northwest, the radioactive cloud shifted
towards the Japanese Island of Honshu, which was
characterized by an ionospheric anomaly.
5.2. Ionospheric Effects of the Change in Atmospheric
Conductivity before Earthquakes
The experimentally determined dependence of the
sign of anomalous variations in the ionosphere as a
dependence on the sign of change in the boundary
layer conductivity makes it possible to understand and
interpret the seismic and ionospheric variations. If we
try to reverse the process of ionization and cluster for
mation over time, we can apparently expect the forma
tion of negative anomalies in the ionosphere under a
sharp increase in radon releases and the formation of
positive anomalies as the size of cluster ions grows (if
weather conditions are favorable to this). Figure 9
shows the TEC changes for a few days before the M7.9
Wenchuan earthquake on May 12, 2008 occurred in
the Sichuan province in China (Liu et al., 2011). It can
be seen that first there is a negative anomaly (May 6)
and, then, a positive anomaly (May 9), which corre
sponds to our view of the change in the conductivity of
the atmospheric surface layer above the earthquake
preparation area.
Clearly, the abovementioned pattern of the gener
ation of ionospheric precursors is overly simplified.
Actually, the zonal electric field, especially in the low
latitude and equatorial atmosphere, leads to the
appearance of a longitudinal effect: the ionospheric
anomalies by longitude are asymmetric with respect to
the vertical projection of the epicenter on the iono
sphere (Pulinets, 2012). The schematic of this process
is shown in Fig. 10.
Let us begin with the lower left square of this figure.
The figure shows the vertical crosssection of the
atmosphere and ionosphere in the zonal plane (near
the geomagnetic equator). Thus, the xaxis is the lon
gitude, the left vertical axis is the height in kilometers,
and the right vertical axis is the ionospheric potential
in kilovolts. The geomagnetic field, which is horizon
tal at the equator, is perpendicular to the figure plane
and denoted by the character ⊗. It is known that the
eastward electric field (shown as a white horizontal
arrow in the figure) in the afternoon initiates an E × B
vertical drift of the ionospheric plasma (white vertical
arrows) (Kelley, 2009). Assume that near the equator
in the surface atmosphere there is an area of increased
conductivity (the dark gray cylinder) appeared due to
the ionization of air by radon. Then, as shown above,
the ionospheric potential over this area decreases. As a
highconductivity medium, the ionosphere will try to
reproduce the potential, which will lead to the emer
gence of a centerdirected area of anomalous gradient
GEOMAGNETISM AND AERONOMY Vol. 55 No. 4
533
Lat
60°
45°
30°
15°
0°
90° 120° 150° 180°
Long
–3 –2 –1 0 1 2 3
TECU
Fig. 8. Formation of a negative anomaly in the ionosphere
1 h after the nuclear explosion in North Korea on February
12, 2013.
of the electric field (the horizontal dark gray arrows).
In this case, the field forming the equatorial anomaly
west of the anomalous area and the anomalous field
have the same sign and are summed, which leads to an
increased vertical plasma drift and, accordingly, to an
intensified equatorial anomaly. East of the area of
anomalous conductivity, we observe an opposite pat
tern. The fields are subtracted, and the velocity of the
vertical plasma drift decreases. This is illustrated in the
figure by the fact that the right vertical arrow is much
shorter than the left vertical arrow.
Now, we turn to the upper left square, which shows
the differential map of the TEC for 0800 UT (1600 LT)
on May 3, 2008, a few days before the Wenchuan
earthquake. As can be seen, the equatorial anomaly
west of the epicenter marked by a black dot in the fig
ure is more developed than that east of the epicenter.
As time approaches the earthquake, cluster ions form
because the hydration of primary ions reach aerosol
sizes and the surface layer conductivity decreases.
Then, the pattern is reversed (see the upper right panel
of Fig. 10): the equatorial anomaly grows east of the
epicenter and weakens west of it.
Actually, this conception explains the appearance
of the anomalous zonal electric field, which is used by
various authors for calculating the ionospheric effects
of earthquakes (Klimenko et al., 2011; Kuo et al.,
2011; Namgaladze et al., 2012).
2015
534 PULINETS et al.

8
May 12
May 6

dTEC (TECU)
0

–4
May 9

–8

–12
May 2008 EQ

Fig. 9. TEC variations before the M7.9 Wenchuan Earthquake on May 12, 2008.

Lat, deg May 3, 2008 Lat, deg May 9, 2008

87.5 87.5
75.0 75.0
62.5 62.5
50.0 50.0
37.5 М = 7.9 37.5 М = 7.9
25.0 25.0
12.5 12.5
0 0
–12.5 –12.5
–25.0 –25.0
–37.5 –37.5
–50.0 –50.0
–62.5 –62.5
–75.0 –75.0
–87.5 –87.5
–160

–160
–180

160

–180

160
–140
–120
–100
–80
–60
–40
–20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140

180

–140
–120
–100
–80
–60
–40
–20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140

180
Long, deg Long, deg
ALT, km IP, kV ALT, km IP, kV
100 400 100 400
350 350
80 80
300 IP 300
60 250 60 250

40 B 200 40 Vd B 200
Vd Vd Vd
Area of increased conductivit
150 Area of decreased conductivity
150
20 20
100 100
0 50 0 50
West East West East

Fig. 10. Schematic of the atmosphere–ionosphere interaction through the global electric circuit: for conditions of increased (left
panel) and decreased (right panel) air conductivity (bottom). Differential maps of GIM GPS TEC obtained before the Wenchuan
Earthquake on May 12, 2008: twodimensional distribution for May 3 (left panel) and May 9 (right panel) (top).

6. SYNERGETICS OF PRECURSORS Fig. 1. In view of this, we would like to conclude by

pointing out another important fact often ignored by
Due to the volume limitations of a journal paper, researchers. The precursors shown in Fig. 1 are inte
we cannot consider all of the processes associated with gral parts of the unique process of the development of
the generation of precursors shown in the schematic of the final stage of earthquake preparation rather than

GEOMAGNETISM AND AERONOMY Vol. 55 No. 4 2015

 PHYSICAL BASES OF THE GENERATION OF SHORTTERM EARTHQUAKE PRECURSORS
simple mechanical links in the general scheme. The
synergetics of their coupling manifests itself in the syn
chronism of their occurrence and the spatial distribu
tion associated with the earthquake preparation area;
here, the synchronism means that the precursors
appear with some delay relative to each other reflect
ing the development of the final stage rather than
appear simply simultaneously. This fact was specifi
cally reflected by Pulinets et al. (2014), who consid
ered the synchronism in anomalies in the chemical
potential correction ΔU, in the formation of cluster
ion–aerosols, and in the formation of linear cloud
structures for three cases of earthquakes in different
seismic areas of the Earth. In this case, the cloud
structures always appear after the formation of large
cluster ions, which is evidence that, like in the case of
cloud formation due to GCRs, the cluster ions
released from the atmospheric surface layer up to
heights of cloud formation are the nucleation centers
that lead to the formation of large particles forming a
cloud.
7. CONCLUSIONS
This paper describes the conception of the model
of lithosphere–atmosphere–ionosphere–magneto
sphere coupling (LAIMC) represented as a complex
dissipative open system. We describe in more detail the
physical bases of the generation of thermal and iono
spheric precursors. However, as has been shown in the
course of the discussion, the model can be used more
widely because it describes the observed anomalies for
other natural and anthropogenic processes as well
(such as dust storms, volcanic eruptions, generation of
tropical cyclones, radioactive pollution, and cloud
formation). It can be widely used in various applica
tions, such as the organization of operational moni
toring of shortterm earthquake precursors, ecology,
and other fields of environmental control.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The authors are grateful to the International Insti
tute of Space Physics (ISSI) in Bern for supporting the
team of researchers involved in the project “Multi
instrument SpaceBorne Observations and Validation
of the Physical Model of the Lithosphere–Atmo
sphere–Ionosphere–Magnetosphere Coupling.”
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