Amazon Deforestation

Rafael Rosolem

A tree in a deforested area in the middle of the Amazon jungle.

Photograph: Raphael Alves/AFP/Getty Images

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 At the end of this lecture you should…
- Recognize key drivers associated with Amazon
deforestation with emphasis on
hydrometeorology
- Identify impacts of Amazon deforestation at
distinct spatial scales and recognize its
complexity
- Recognize links between environmental
sciences and engineering in Amazon studies
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BACKGROUND

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 Amazon basin covers an area of ~7
million km2 (~40% of South America)

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This is roughly the same area of 28
“Great Britains”

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It hosts several thousands of animal
and plan species

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Including human beings in villages…

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 … or in big cities!

Manaus (Brazil) = 2 million inhabitants

Belém(Brazil) = 1.4 million inhabitans

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AMAZON DEFORESTATION

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 Colonization in the late-1970’s supported by
state subsidies and infrastructure development

Forest to cattle ranching conversion

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Fishbone deforestation pattern

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 Deforested areas found primarily along
official roads in the "arc of deforestation”

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 Slash-and-burn is the most common
practice for forest-to-pasture conversion

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 Slash-and-burn is the most common
practice for forest-to-pasture conversion

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 The number of cattle bred in the Legal
EXPANSIONAmazon is growing
OF CATTLE RANCHING IN THE LEGALfast!
AMAZON
EXPANSION OF CATTLE RANCHING IN THE LEGAL AMAZON BETWEEN 1996 AND 2006

INTRODUCTION
1996 2006

B etween 2000 and 2007, the Brazilian Amazon was deforested at

an average rate of 19,368 km² per year. Over this time, 154,312
km² of forest, an area larger than Greece4, was destroyed.
plains)13. In absolute terms, the state has the highest
Brazil is the world’s the fourth biggest climate polluter5. Deforestation
and land-use change make up 75% of all Brazilian greenhouse
gas emissions. From this, 59% comes from loss of forest cover and
burning in the Amazon region6.
Cattle ranching which has been expanding continuously since the
early 1970s, is responsible for the majority of Amazon deforestation.
This is the result of more than 30 years of government policies
that have encouraged investments in infrastructure (roads, dams),
occupation of the territory (induced migration) and public funding
of such activities.
Mato Grosso extends over 903,358 km² and comprises the Amazon
forest plus large areas of Cerrado (savannahs) and the Pantanal
(flooded
cumulative Amazon deforestation rates, so far some 185,587 km²
has been destroyed, that’s an area twice the area of Hungary14.
The eight maps in this report show the land use, comparing it
with data on infrastructure, recent deforestation and regional
dynamics.
Brazil has a very important role to play in mitigating the effects of
climate change. The country must see deforestation ended by 2015, a
“zero-deforestation” target, this can be achieved through progressive
deforestation reduction goals that combine development, sensible
use of natural resources and biodiversity conservation.

Illegally occupied forest land is currently very cheap; making Understanding land use change is a critical starting point for
cattle ranching both profitable and expanding. In 2003, a study the Brazilian Government to make decisions about effective
funded by the World Bank7 showed the direct relationship between governance, control of cattle ranching and other agricultural
deforestation and cattle ranching, the report detailed how ranching sectors and how best to reduce and eliminate deforestation in the
is a strong driver for occupation, conversion and trade of illegally- Amazon region.
used land.
Legal Amazon boudary
Brazil has the largest commercial cattle herd in the world and has WORLD BEEF EXPORTS
HEADS OF CATTLE PERbeen
MUNICIPALITY
the world’s largest beef exporter since 2003. A Greenpeace
0 - 50,000
survey based on Brazilian government data shows that in 2006 3.000
cattle occupied 79.5% of the land already in use in the Brazilian 2.500
50,001 - 200,000
Legal Amazon (excluding the state of Maranhão)8. 2.000
1000 t

1.500
200,001 - 400,000
According to the data, in 2006 there were three head of cattle per 1.000
inhabitant in the Legal Amazon9, 10. 500
400,001 - 1,000,000
Around 40% of Brazil’s cows are currently located inside the Amazon, 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
1,000,001 - 2,000,000
and this is where most of growth of cattle ranching occurs. From Brazil India
2002 to 2006, 14.5 million of the total 20.5 million head of cattle USA Australia
added to Brazil herd were located in the Amazon11. The expansion
of cattle ranching in the Amazon Region has intensified in line with SOURCE ABIEC (BRAZILIAN ASSOCIATION OF MEAT EXPORTERS), WITH DATA FROM
increasing international exports of Brazilian cattle and beef. MDIC (MINISTRY OF DEVELOPMENT, INDUSTRY AND TRADE) AND USDA (UNITED STATES

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE)
This study charts the location of pasture areas in the Brazilian

http://www.greenpeace.org/international/en/publications/reports/amazon-cattle-footprint-mato/
Amazon, in the state of Mato Grosso. Using a new method, it

T
he number of cattle bred in the Legal Amazon is growing fast: AREA OCCUPIED BY CATTLE RANCHING IN THE LEGAL 16
analyses images released from the Moderate-resolution Imaging
Spectroradiometer (Modis) satellite to identify which deforested
between 1990 and 2003, the bovine herd more than doubled,
areas are currently used for cattle ranching compared to those used AMAZON (HECTARES)
for crops. Greenpeace studied the Amazon area in the state of Mato
Biofuel and food demand related to introduction
of soybean farming in Amazon

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Competing interests across ministries

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IMPACTS ON HYDROMETEOROLOGY
(ACROSS SCALES)

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Land and oceans contribute to
hydrological cycle

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What drives the hydrological cycle?

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Three different patterns were originally proposed for
Amazon deforestation impacts across scales
LBA 54 - 4 AVISSAR ET AL.: OVERVIEW OF LBA GENERAL STUDIE

et al. [2002b] found that

Avissar et al. 2002 (JGR) convection into precipitatin
Amazon was increased as a
from forest to a mixture of
[25] The effect of abov
eastern and central Pacific
has been shown to have a m
away from this region [Sh
ocean surface provides ap
the development of thun
amounts of heat, moisture
and higher latitudes. This
Figure 2a by the yellow
Pacific Ocean and which a
associated with the polar je
to as ‘‘teleconnections’’ [G
Wallace and Gutzler, 198
cluded that sea-surface tem
eastern Pacific Ocean hav
allow this region to influe
Figure 1. Conceptual impact of deforestation on relative large magnitude, long pers
precipitation. The three curves indicate different models, 22
[26] Almost two-thirds
among many other possible ones. associated with mesoscale
 Much of the rainfall over tropical forests comes from water
vapor that is carried by the atmosphere from elsewhere but a
large component (25-50%) is 'recycled' rain

Aragão 2012 (Nature) 23

At local scales, change in water and energy partitioning at
surface caused reduction in evapotranspiration
(consequently near-surface warming)

Aragão 2012 (Nature) 24

 Brasil-Cuzco) paved in the year 2008, and 3) the Manaus-Porto Velho highway paved in
the year 2010. The influence of paving each highway alone is analyzed, comparing

Regional (current
deforestation
trend but no further road projected according
further road paving,to
and different
deforestation forecast within their areas of influence with the results of the historical
paving), governance without

governance scenarios
governance scenarios (Fig. S11-S13 and tables S5-S7).
2030
Governance no further paving Governance with paving Historical Business as usual

2050
Governance no further paving Governance with paving Historical Business as usual

Deforested by 2003 Forest

Simulated deforestation Protected forest
Roads by 2003 Non Forest
Simulated roads Water
Fig. S11- Results for BR-163 area of influence. 25
Soares-Filho (Nature)
Increase of reduction of rainfall depends on size and
orientation of deforested area
Earth Interactions d
Volume 14 (2010) d
Paper No. 18 d
Page 13

Figure 11. Mean difference (DFO 2 CTL) precipitation simulated in the dry season (at
Saad et al. 2010 (Earth Interactions)
the 5% significance level); increasing (decreasing) precipitation in the
DFO experiment shown as blue (yellow) color shading] for all experiments
shown in Figure 3. The values shown in black at the top are number 26
of cells with significant changes in precipitation, mean precipitation
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 Local-to-regional scales circulations in the atmosphere
enhanced precipitation due to size of deforested area

moist
moist dry/warm moist

Dolman et al. 1999

Silva Dias e Regnier 1996
Avissar e Liu 1996*
Roy e Avissar 2002
Gandu et al. 2004
Silva Dias et al. 2004**

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 However, total removal of Amazon forest has severe
consequences including overall reduction of rainfall and
substantial warming of surface and near atmosphere

P
R
E

Nobre et al. 1991

Lean et al. 1996
Manzi e Planton 1996
Sud et al. 1996
Werth e Avissar 2002

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 imary cause for such a dependency is not ‘disorganized’ (Shuttleworth, 1988b) – dom
ptual, but also operational. It relates to the more, according to Baidya Roy et al. (2003
In summary,
se resolution models cannot spatial
resolve scale
small- plays an important
land–atmosphere role
dynamics inas a med
acts
understanding
ena with the impacts
same degree of detail as moreof filter,
Amazon deforestation!
enabling only anomalous circulation
s do. The same principle applies to obser- tain scale range to evolve, the degree of h
h may represent any particular phenomenon still an important factor to determine whe
epending on the grid resolution, or on the culations develop at the first place. It the

no deforestation local deforestation (<10 2km 2)

(a) (b)
regional deforestation (10 2 – 10 5km 2) basin wide deforestation (>10 5km 2)

(c) (d)

Almeida et al. 2007 (Int. J. Clim.)

atic representation of the hydrological impact of different extents of clearing (in dark gray) in Amazoni
transfers moisture into the region and in the case of (a) no deforestation, this flux is sustained by preci
indices of rainfall. Areas of (b) local deforestation are too small to affect rainfall, but runoff increases and
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of (c) regional deforestation are large enough to influence circulation, strengthening convection and potentially
WHY DO WE CARE ABOUT THIS?

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 tently paved BR-364 highway.
social and envir
Climate Change. Our study examined the influence of deforestation- hydroelectric po
driven climate change, but it did not examine the influence of mer. Hydropowe
per kWh) is 36–

Projections of forest loss for 2050 simulated a

climate change driven by the accumulation of heat-trapping gases
in the atmosphere on future energy generation, nor did it examine moelectric powe
trends in extreme droughts or floods. Most climate models predict a lifecycle basis,
higher temperatures and lower rainfall in the southeastern Ama- electricity genera
zon region, including the headwaters of the Xingu River (35, 39, as emissions from

decline power generation 40). The net result of the interacting influences of deforestation power’s GHG e
and increasing CO2 is likely to be a large increase in surface gassing from res
included in the c
puted (47). As te
improve their co
idered in energy to renewable ene
river discharge, l
ect and indirect A eration. Currentl
for the XB. The a massive deep-w
mplex (BMHC), tion of this natio
tional electricity
leted, BMHC— Trade-offs and Po
d’s third largest transportation in
under discussion needed to optim
(27). It is con- power plants and
indigenous and A B ical rainforest re
by the dam and scenarios of futu
son restricts river other infrastruct
d because of its rainfall systems t
ould be partially to avoid or postp
er to retain rainy lead to a regiona
of low flow, but changes in rainfa
ommunities and
B of deforestation a
system itself and should be routin
were eventually prioritizing outp
and land use mo
power complex is
best ways of redu
ich a portion of
0 m alongside of C D AB region and
agricultural syste
the size of the end deforestation
epend upon the degraded cattle p
his design could (49). The rate of
an the previous (50, 51), althoug
km2 of reservoirs this trend. In th
e current design lowering defores
of extreme rain- Change Policy, a
reservoirs in the Forest Degrada
opportunities to
nt and simulated tation while rees
affect the water E F support for such
ndent changes in sector regarded
eration potential Fig. 1. Vegetation cover of the Xingu Basin (XB) and Amazon Basin (AB) elsewhere as a m
study results for with two land cover classes, tropical evergreen forests and/or cerrado
Fig. 4. Difference in monthly power generation potential at the Belo
ation, fostering a
licy? To address (green) and agriculture (yellow), under six alternative scenarios (percentage
Monte power plant on the Xingu River under alternative scenarios of local designed to lowe
ssociated energy deforestation). (A) 0% AB and 20% XB: 0% of AB cleared; 20% of XB
[Xingu Basin (XB)] and regional [Amazon Basin (AB)] forest cover, with cli- The construct
nge of plausible
cleared; (B) 0% AB and 40% XB: 0% of AB cleared; 40% of XB cleared; (C) mate feedbacks. (A) The percentage difference from reference scenario (0% dropower projec
tease apart the
15% AB and 20% XB: 15% of AB cleared; 20% of XB cleared; (D) 15% AB AB and 0% XB) in mean monthly energy generation potential under six costs, particularl
and 40% XB: 15% of AB cleared; 40% of XB cleared; (E) 40% AB and 20% alternative scenarios. (B) Mean monthly power generation potential as However, the B
eneration poten- XB: 40% of AB cleared; 20% of XB cleared; (F) 40% AB and 40% XB: 40% of a percentage of maximum installed capacity (11,000 MW) under seven al- stringent licens
rated with a land AB cleared; 40% of XB cleared. ternative scenarios. broaden the disc
nput to a surface
ts of forest cover 31
r were examined gional forest cover, we found no difference in XB rainfall when 9604 | www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1215331110
-wide, simulated 20% and 40% of XB forest cover was removed. With a 15%Stickler et al. 2013 (PNAS)
“Flying rivers” transport water vapor from the Amazon
to fall as rain on coastal areas in Brazil

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Systematic decline in water volume at the Cantareira
Reservoir in São Paulo

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Systematic decline in water volume at the Cantareira
Reservoir in São Paulo

Water level jump due to use of dead

storage despite sedimentation and
water quality issues!!!

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Southeast Brazil is currently facing the worst
water crisis in history!

http://geographical.co.uk/places/cities/item/761-deforestation-behind-sao-paulo-drought 35
Cantareira Reservoir in 2013

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Cantareira Reservoir in 2013

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The Cantareira Reservoir System is supposed to provide water to
more than 8 million people in São Paulo metropolitan area

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What happens when deforestation impacts are
combined with climate change?

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 Likely future deforestation regions are located where droughts
are expected to occur more often in the future
Deforestation to 2050 (red)
Business as Usual Increased governance

Malhi et al. (2008)

Contour lines: “probability” of substantial drought (>20% reduction in dry-season rainfall)

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Climate change and deforestation can shift entire ecosystem
equilibrium in the Amazon region
“Savannization” of the Amazon rainforest
2020-2029 2050-2059 2090-2099

SRES B1 SRES B1 SRES B1

SRES A2 SRES A2 SRES A2

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Slides from Carlos Nobre (INPE)
 major decrease of precipitation, with a progressing defor-
station not having further significant impact (blue curve).
An alternative pattern could represent first an increase of
Large deforested area could consequently alter large-
precipitation as a result of partial deforestation, maybe due
o the mesoscale circulations as described by Baidya Roy
scale weather and climate patterns
and Avissar [2002] and observed by Sa et al. [2002],
ollowed by a catastrophic decrease passing some threshold
value (red line). Note also that in their case study, Silva Dias
thunderstorms (which they refer to as ‘‘hot towers’’) are th
conduit to transport this heat, moisture, and wind energy to
higher latitudes. Since thunderstorms only occur in
relatively small percentage of the area of the tropics,
change in their spatial patterns would be expected to hav
global consequences. Furthermore, land-use change has th
same three attributes indicated by Wu and Newell [1998]
Thus a similar teleconnection is expected to occur as a resul

Avissar et al. 2002 (JGR)

Figure 2. Illustration of hydrometeorological teleconnection resulting from (a) an El Niño event,
schematically represented with the warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean west of the coast of South
America; and (b) a major deforestation of the Amazon basin, schematically represented with the warming
of the basin. While sea-surface temperature increases by a few degrees during an El Niño event, the
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surface temperature can increase by about 20 K as a result of deforestation. Note that the spatial extent of
Complete deforestation of Amazon rainforest could reduce rainfall in the Pacific
NW USA by up to 20% and snowpack in the Sierra Nevada by up to 50%

Medvigy et al. 2013 (J. Clim.)

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Are there other regions likely to be impacted by
such changes? LBA 55 -
WERTH AND AVISSAR: EFFECTS OF AMAZON DEFORESTATION 3

Werth and Avissar 2002 (JGR)

Figure 1. Areas within which monthly averages of precipitation were taken. Easterly Amazon winds at
787 mbar were averaged along the black solid line for the correlational analysis. Map courtesy of
www.theodora.com/maps; used with permission. 44
Impact of total removal of Amazon rainforest is more obvious in
the Amazon
LBA 4
but other remote regions are likely to be affected
55 - WERTH AND AVISSAR: EFFECTS OF AMAZON DEFORESTATION

Werth and Avissar 2002 (JGR)

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EXAMPLES OF ENVIRONMENTAL
SCIENCES AND ENGINEERING

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 Environmental scientists and engineers working together to
design field experiments to understand how resilient (or not) the
rainforest is under drought conditions

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Also interested in understanding what is the link
between biosphere and atmosphere

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The Amazon Tall Tower Observatory is a scientific research tower
in the Amazon with a height of 325m

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The Amazon Tall Tower Observatory is a scientific research tower
in the Amazon with a height of 325m

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Several different measurements are made in the profile to better characterize
land-atmosphere interactions in the Amazon rainforest

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Biosphere2 located in semi-arid Arizona state in the US

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The facility contains different mesocosms, including the
tropical rainforest biome

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Climate and ecological characteristics are similar to Amazon
rainforest but can be used for controlled experiments

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zaF76NpgmU8

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TO SUMMARIZE

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 Today we discussed about…
- Characteristics of the Amazon and drivers associated
with Amazon deforestation

- The complexity of Amazon deforestation impacts with

emphasis on hydrometeorology

- Those impacts have potentially huge impact not only

to local regions but nationally to Brazilian natural
resources as well as globally

- Given its complexity, scientists and engineers come

together to introduce clever ways to conduct
experiments 60