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Article history: In open-pit mines, pit slope as one of the important parameters affects the mine economy and total min-able reserve, and it is
Received 3 May 2013 also affected by different uncertainties which arising from many sources. One of the most critical sources of uncertainty effects
Received in revised form 24 June 2013 on the pit slope design is rock mass geomechanical properties. By comparing the probability of failure resulted from
Accepted 10 July 2013 Available online
deterministic procedure and probabilistic one, this paper investigated the effects of aforesaid uncertainties on open-pit slope
xxxx
stability in metal mines. In this way, to reduce the effect of variance, it implemented Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS)
technique. Further-more, a hypothesis test was exerted to compare the effects on two cases in Middle East. Subsequently, the
Keywords:
investigation approved high influence of geomechanical uncertainties on overall pit steepness and stability in both iron and
Safety factor
Probability of failure copper mines, though on the first case the effects were just over.
Geomechanical property uncertainty
Overall pit slope 2013 Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of China University of Mining & Technology.
Stability analysis
1. Introduction angle and the pit wall configuration, layout and position on a bench by bench
basis [16].
Determination of acceptable slope angles for open-pit mines is a key Generally, aforesaid uncertainties of the ore body and its sur-rounding
aspect of the mine design, as it implies seeking the optimum balance between rocks affect on the mine evaluation particularly slope de-sign and analysis in
the additional economic benefits gained from having steeper slopes, and the the both types of risks which might be repelled in evaluation procedure. There
additional risks resulting from the consequent reduced stability of the open-pit are two types of risk in mine eval-uations: (1) risk inherent to physical
slopes [1]. But, pit slope as one of three important parameters (e.g., product characteristics of the mineral body; (2) risk associated with future events [17].
price, cut-off grade, and pit slope) affects the mine economy and ore re-serve Detailed geotech-nical data is often a major unknown factor in open-pit
of the mine, and it is also affected by different uncertainties which arising design and mining, the lack of which constitutes a significant risk in any min-
from many sources which are the most operative causes of difficulty in ing venture [18]. Furthermore, usually, in almost all mining activ-ities around
determining the acceptable slope angles in the first steps of the process of the world, these data are not available in the prefeasibility and feasibility step
mine design. study during which the mine is evaluating and being design (it is due to
spatially and temporally variation of rock properties even within
In the process of mine design during prefeasibility and feasibil-ity studies, homogeneous layers as a result of depositional and post-depositional
a vast majority of uncertainties including spatial and temporal ones will be processes that cause variation in properties and errors in human data
faced. The same is true in determination of acceptable slope where various measurements) [19,20]. Subsequently, effects of lack of detailed geotechnical
uncertainties, such as inherent spatial variability of rock properties, infor-mation will be appearing when the pit depth increases to its prede-
subsurface stratigraphy, sim-plifications, and approximations adopted in termined ultimate limits. The most important effect of these uncertainties is
geotechnical models, exist [2]. To encounter by these and also to define the unreliability of the feasibility study step designed pit wall slope.
inherent natural variability, field data collection and site investigations are
implemented. As a result, many studies of probabilistic slope sta-bility have
been presented recently by paying a special attention to the uncertainties and
randomness in soil and rock properties [3–15]. Also in the face of geological This paper represented effects of the geomechanical properties uncertainty
complexity, overall wall sta-bility and open-pit reserve optimization depend on open-pit slope design by comparing between deter-ministic and
upon overall slope probabilistic slope stability analysis with respect to two large copper and iron
open-pit mines in Iran (e.g., Sungun Cop-per Mine and Chadormaloo Iron
Mine, respectively). In this way, after a deterministic finite difference
⇑ Corresponding author. Tel.: +98 937 159 2236. analysis, a procedure of probabilistic slope stability was handled to compare
E-mail address: ali.moradiafrapoli@gmail.com (M.A. Ali). slope stability
2095-2686/$ - see front matter 2013 Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of China University of Mining & Technology.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijmst.2013.12.018
Please cite this article in press as: Ali MA, Morteza O. Determination and stability analysis of ultimate open-pit slope under geomechanical uncertainty. Int J Min Sci Technol (2013),
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijmst.2013.12.018
2 M.A. Ali, O. Morteza / International Journal of Mining Science and Technology xxx (2013) xxx–xxx
condition with and without ignoring geomechanical properties uncertainty. 2.3. Probability of failure (PoF)
The procedure is based on a Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) in which a
probability of failure for a crucial 2-dimentional cross section compute by The performance of a proposed design in the presence of uncer-tainty can
exerting the safety factors calculated from a 2-dimensional finite difference be quantified in terms of the ‘failure probability’ [26]. Accordingly,
analysis. The analysis was performed by FLAC version 4.00 (Itasca probabilistic design is a systematic procedure for examining the effect of the
Consulting Group) under two basic logic assumptions which are listed below: variability of each parameter on slope stability. Also the probabilistic failure
(1) plane strain condition; (2) due to the purpose of study (geomechanical analysis intends to find a set of model parameters and aims to identify
property uncertainty effects on the analysis), the paper disregard effects of uncertain parameters that would significantly affect the slope performance
structures, underground water condition, and unit weight uncertainties. [27]. A prob-ability distribution of the factor of safety (FS) is calculated, from
which the probability of failure of the slope is determined. In this case the
input parameters are described as probability distribu-tions. By combining
these distributions within the deterministic model used to calculate the FS, the
probability of failure of the slope can be estimated. A technique commonly
2. Methods
used to combine the distributions is the MCS, especially LHS. In this way, a
FS is cal-culated by implementing the procedure on each set of randomly
The conventional tools for dealing with ground heterogeneity in the field
generated samples. Afterwards, the probability of failure calculated as a ratio
of geotechnical engineering have been applied under the use of safety factors
between the number of cases that failed (FS < 1) and the total number of
and by implementing local experience and engineering judgment [21].
simulations which are illustrated on Fig. 1 [1].
However, it has been recognized that the factor of safety is not a consistent
measure of risk since slopes with the same safety factor value may exhibit
different risk levels depending on the variability of the properties [22].
The use of probability analysis in design requires that there be generally
Accordingly, numerous studies have been undertaken in recent years to
acceptable range of probability of failure for different types of structure.
develop a probabilistic slope stability analysis that deal with the uncertain-ties
These criteria have been defined by some researchers, as indicated in Table 1.
of rock properties in a systematic manner. Because of that, this study used a
Monte Carlo based (i.e., LHS) deterministic and prob-abilistic slope stability
analysis and design.
2.4. Hypothesis tests
SD 2p
Then a hypothesis test statistic ZH (z-test) of the parameter is for-mulated as:
where x is the mean value given by:
x ¼ Pn ð2Þ l l0
n x ZH ¼ pffiffiffi ð5Þ
x¼1 r= n
and SD is the standard deviation given by: where r is the standard deviation of the uncertain parameter; and n the number
2 1=2
of failure samples. Based on the Central Limit Theorem,
"P x #
SD ¼ n
x¼1
xÞ ð3Þ
ðn
Please cite this article in press as: Ali MA, Morteza O. Determination and stability analysis of ultimate open-pit slope under geomechanical uncertainty. Int J Min Sci Technol (2013),
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijmst.2013.12.018
M.A. Ali, O. Morteza / International Journal of Mining Science and Technology xxx (2013) xxx–xxx 3
Kuwait
Saudi Persian 0
200 km 3.2. Chadormalu Iron Mine (CIM)
Guif 0
150 m
Arabia Manama Pak.
Riyadh Bahrain Doha U.A.E. Oman Gult of As shown in Fig. 2, CIM in Yazd province of Iran is located at lat-itude
Abu dhabi man 37L170 north and longitude 55L 30 0 east. By referring to Fig. 5, the ultimate
Fig. 2. SCM and CIM location in Iran. pit wall at azimuth 57L with an approximately 300 m height was selected to
be analyzed. CIM pit geometry in the critical cross section at azimuth 57L and
a short list of rock mass properties are shown in Fig. 5 and Table 3,
ZH follows the standard normal distribution when n is large (e.g., respectively [31].
n P 30). When the failure sample mean l deviates statistically from the
unconditional mean l0 of the parameter, the absolute value of ZH increases, 4. Discussion and results
the statistical difference between l and l0 becomes growingly significant, and
the effect of the uncertain parameter 4.1. Deterministic analysis of SCM
on failure probability becomes significant too. The absolute value of Z H will
be used as an index to measure the effects of the uncertain parameters on As followed by the deterministic procedure in Fig. 3, the geome-chanical
failure probability and to prioritize their relative ef-fects on failure probability rock mass property sets import into the model geometry, one after another.
[27]. The FLAC model for each set of properties were solved, and for each set a SF
This paper used a procedure (Fig. 3) to determine safety factor (SF), and calculated. Inputted set of rock mass properties into FLAC and the results of
probability of failure (PoF) of the cases under both deter-ministic and the procedures (e.g., SFs) are listed in Table 4.
probabilistic situations, and also, at the end of the
Fitting the best normal distribution Select N plausible c and φ sets from site
to both c and φ data investigated data sheet and save in a matrix
(e.g., X=[x1, x2, x3, , xn])
Generate N sets of c and φ using Latin
hypercube sampling and save in a matrix
(e.g., Y=[y1, y2 , y3, , yn]) For i=1 to N;
Assign the xi property to the slope in FLAC;
Calculate the SFi;
Save SFj as an array of SF(y) matrix Fitting the best normal distribution
to the calculated SFjs
Fitting the best normal distribution
to the calculated SFjs Calculating the PoF (SF 1)
Fig. 3. Schematic of overall pit slope analysis by both deterministic and probabilistic procedures.
Please cite this article in press as: Ali MA, Morteza O. Determination and stability analysis of ultimate open-pit slope under geomechanical uncertainty. Int J Min Sci Technol (2013),
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijmst.2013.12.018
4 M.A. Ali, O. Morteza / International Journal of Mining Science and Technology xxx (2013) xxx–xxx
Table 4
Table 2
Geomechanical rock mass properties at azimuth 30L SCM.
Density
0.6
5 2340 113 19.0 0.5
6 2340 231 37.0 0.4
7 2360 89 21.5 0.3
8 2360 247 38.8 0.2
9 2360 121 26.2 0.1
10 2360 497 50.2 0 0.5 1.0 1.567 2.0 2.5 3.0
Deterministic safety factor (SCM)
By using of MATLAB 7.11.0 (R2010b), this step estimated and fitted the
best normal distribution of deterministic SFs which cal-culated formerly (Fig.
Table 5
6). Subsequently, the best mean and stan-dard deviation of the calculated SFs
Probabilistic 2-dimentional finite difference analysis results in SCM.
which are obtained from the aforesaid fitted curve are 1.567 and 0.789,
respectively. As it is shown in Fig. 6, respectively, the mean of safety factor in No. Cohesion (kPa) Friction angle (L) Safety factor
determin-istic procedure is equal to 1.567 and the probability of failure is 1 166.1614 27.72422 1.32
7.82%. 2 168.5409 25.83824 1.22
3 145.0394 29.31930 1.41
4 167.4735 29.00399 1.39
5 161.1030 25.27651 1.19
4.2. Probabilistic analysis of SCM 6 157.9390 28.20150 1.35
7 159.7480 26.52825 1.25
8 162.8585 30.22933 1.46
In the probabilistic step, at first, 10 sets of rock mass properties were 9 175.0631 30.88454 1.50
selected from the best normal distribution of the input data
Please cite this article in press as: Ali MA, Morteza O. Determination and stability analysis of ultimate open-pit slope under geomechanical uncertainty. Int J Min Sci Technol (2013),
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijmst.2013.12.018
M.A. Ali, O. Morteza / International Journal of Mining Science and Technology xxx (2013) xxx–xxx 5
2.0
3 189 41.90 1.96
1.5 4 26 13.90 0.57
5 120 34.42 1.52
1.0
6 169 37.97 1.75
0.5 7 202 41.34 1.92
8 70 26.63 1.22
0 1.0 1.2 1.374 1.6 1.8 2.0 9 111 49.99 2.92
Table 7
Fig. 7. Probabilistic SF distribution and the related PoF (SCM).
Probabilistic 2-dimentional finite difference analysis results in CIM.
1.0
y
deterministic step of analyzing the wall sta-bility calculated PoF was 3.5% 0 1.0 1.5 1.735 2.0 2.5 3.0
more than acceptable PoF for an overall slope. Since, by implementing the
Deterministic safety factor (SCM)
analysis procedure prob-abilistically under geomechanical uncertainties, PoF
of crucial wall of the mine was around 4.5% less than acceptable criteria. By
Fig. 9. Probabilistic SF distribution and the related PoF (CIM).
regarding to this, the designed wall that is in used nowadays could be steeper
to reach deeper deposit and increasing NPV by decreas-ing stripping ratio
without effecting on risk of venture. Table 8
z-test parameters of both cases.
Probability less than upper bound is 0.084136 Table 8 shows the results of the random sampling and other re-quired
1.0 parameters for the test. Values of z-test of SCM and CIM are 0.008747 and
0.9 0.008972, respectively.
0.8
0.7
The absolute z-value for CIM is more than the z-value of SCM. It is
comprehended that, the effect of geomechanical property uncer-tainties in an
Density
0.6
0.4
0.5 iron mine is more than the effects of such uncertain-ties in a copper mine.
0.3
0.2
0.1
0 0.5 1.0 1.5511 2.0 2.5 3.0 5. Conclusions
Please cite this article in press as: Ali MA, Morteza O. Determination and stability analysis of ultimate open-pit slope under geomechanical uncertainty. Int J Min Sci Technol (2013),
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijmst.2013.12.018
6 M.A. Ali, O. Morteza / International Journal of Mining Science and Technology xxx (2013) xxx–xxx
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Please cite this article in press as: Ali MA, Morteza O. Determination and stability analysis of ultimate open-pit slope under geomechanical uncertainty. Int J Min Sci Technol (2013),
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijmst.2013.12.018