California

Housing Market
Update
Monthly Sales and
Price Statistics
September 2019
Sales
 Sales remained above 400k
for 3rd consecutive month
California, September 2019 Sales: 404,030 Units, -3.1% YTD, 5.8% YTY
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
-
Jan-05

Jan-07

Jan-09

May-10
Jan-11

Jan-13

Jan-15

Jan-17

Jan-19
Sep-05

Sep-09

Sep-11

Sep-13

Sep-15

Sep-17

Sep-19
May-06

May-08

May-12

May-14

May-16

May-18
Sep-07

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
3
 California home sales had the largest gain in 30
months
25% Year-over-Year % Chg 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Year-over-Year % Chg)
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
4
 Bay Area sales up the first time in four months

30% Bay Area 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Bay Area)

20%

10%
YoY % chg.

6.2%
0%

-10%

-20%

-30%
Jan-10

Sep-10
Jan-11

Sep-11
Jan-12

Sep-12
Jan-13

Sep-13
Jan-14

Sep-14
Jan-15

Sep-15
Jan-16

Sep-16
Jan-17

Sep-17
Jan-18

Sep-18
Jan-19

Sep-19
May-10

May-11

May-12

May-13

May-14

May-15

May-16

May-17

May-18

May-19
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
5
 So. California sales surged in September

So CA 6 per. Mov. Avg. (So CA)

40%
30%
20%
YoY % chg.

10.4%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
May-10

May-14

May-18
Jan-10

Sep-10
Jan-11

Sep-11
Jan-12

Sep-12
Jan-13

Sep-13
Jan-14

Sep-14
Jan-15

Sep-15
Jan-16

Sep-16
Jan-17

Sep-17
Jan-18

Sep-18
Jan-19

Sep-19
May-11

May-12

May-13

May-15

May-16

May-17

May-19
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
6
 Central Valley sales up largest
since November 2016
30% Central Valley 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Central Valley)
20%

10%
7.5%
YoY % chg.

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%
May-10

May-11

May-12

May-13

May-14

May-15

May-16

May-17

May-18

May-19
Jan-10

Sep-10
Jan-11

Sep-11
Jan-12

Sep-12
Jan-13

Sep-13
Jan-14

Sep-14
Jan-15

Sep-15
Jan-16

Sep-16
Jan-17

Sep-17
Jan-18

Sep-18
Jan-19

Sep-19
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
7
 Sales improve in all price ranges,
except for the lowest end
September 2019 Share by Price Segment
(YTY% Chg.) 0% 10% 20% 30%

25% 21.0% $0 - $299k 12.6%

20% 15.2%
15% 10.9% 10.9% $300 - $399k 15.7%
8.7%
10%
2.1% $400 - $499k 14.1%
5%
0% $500 - $749k 26.0%
-5%
-10% -7.0% $750 - $999k 11.9%
$1,000 - $1,999k 12.0%
$2,000k+ 3.4%

SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
8
Sales by Region
September 2019 September 2019 Home Sales
Home Sales by Region Growth by Region
12.0% 10.4%
Other Counties
8% 10.0%
Central 7.5% 8.0%
Coast 8.0% 6.6%
6.2%
4% 6.0%
Central
Valley 4.0%
22% 2.0%
0.0%

S.F. Bay
Southern Area
California 18%
48%

CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

page
9
 Pending sales continued to rise since
mid-2019
15%
YTY % Chg. in Pending Sales

10% 9.8%

5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%

SERIES: Percent Change in Pending Sales page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
10
 is it a good time to buy or sell?

Do you think it’s a good time to buy a Do you think it’s a good time to sell a
home in California? home in California?
N=300 N=300

56%
52%
46%

21% 22% 22%

Dec-18

Apr-19

Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19

Dec-18

Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18

Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19

May-19

Sep-19
Oct-19

Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18

Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19

Sep-19
Oct-19
SERIES: 2018/2019 Google Consumer Poll page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
11
Price
 California median price off from all-time high but
stay above $600k
California, September 2019: $605,680, -1.9% MTM, 4.7% YTY

$700,000
$600,000
$500,000
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000
$-

May-18
Jan-05
Sep-05

Jan-07
Sep-07

Jan-09
Sep-09

Jan-11

Jan-13
Sep-13

Jan-15
Sep-15

Jan-17
Sep-17

Jan-19
Sep-19
May-06

May-08

May-10

May-12

May-14

May-16
Sep-11 page
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
13
 Single-family homes had the largest gain in 11 months

50% Condo Single-Family Homes

40%
30%
20%
YTY% Chg. in Price

10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
May-08
Jan-05
Sep-05

Jan-07
Sep-07

Jan-09
Sep-09

Jan-11
Sep-11

Jan-13
Sep-13

Jan-15
Sep-15

Jan-17
Sep-17

Jan-19
Sep-19
May-06

May-10

May-12

May-14

May-16

May-18
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condo/Townhomes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
14
 Condo/Townhome median price dipped
slightly from last year

$600,000
California, September 2018: $470,000, September 2019: $460,000

$500,000
Median Price

$400,000

$300,000

$200,000

$100,000

$0
Jan-05

Mar-06
Aug-05

May-07

Nov-10

Mar-13

May-14

Sep-16

Nov-17

Jan-19
Oct-06

Dec-07
Jul-08

Sep-09

Jun-11
Jan-12
Feb-09

Apr-10

Oct-13

Dec-14
Jul-15
Feb-16

Apr-17

Jun-18

Aug-19
Aug-12
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condos/Townhomes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
15
 Price/Square Foot unchanged from last month
but up from last year
September 2019: $287, 0.0% MTM, 2.1% YTY
$400
$350
PRICE PER SQ. FT.

$300
$250
$200
$150
$100
$50
$0
Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19
Jul-07

Jul-08

Jul-09

Jul-10

Jul-11

Jul-12

Jul-13

Jul-14

Jul-15

Jul-16

Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19
SERIES: Median Price Per Square Feet of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
16
 Sales price-to-list Price ratio virtually flat
as market ended its peak season
September 2019: 98.5%, -0.2% MTM, 0.0% YTY
100%
Sales-to-List Price Ratio

98%

96%

94%

92%

90%
Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19
Jul-07

Jul-08

Jul-09

Jul-10

Jul-11

Jul-12

Jul-13

Jul-14

Jul-15

Jul-16

Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19
SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
17
Top percentile saw decline in price growth

Year-over-Year Price Growth

7%
5.9%
6% 5.5%
5%
4% 3.4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1% -0.2%
-2% -1.3% -1.6% -1.7%
-3% -2.6%
-4% -3.1%
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100
Percentile

SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
18
 Mortgage payment lowest in 7 months,
despite higher median price
California Median Price vs.
30 Yr. FRM
6% Mortgage Payment
20%
5% 4.63% 15%
4% 10%
3.61%

YTY% Chg.
5%
3%
0%
2% -5%
-10%
1%

Jan-16

Sep-16

Sep-17

Sep-18

Sep-19
May-16

Jan-17
May-17

Jan-18
May-18

Jan-19
May-19
0%
Jan-15

Sep-15
Jan-16

Sep-16
Jan-17

Sep-17
Jan-18

Sep-18
Jan-19

Sep-19
May-15

May-16

May-17

May-18

May-19
Price Growth Mortgage Pmt Growth

SERIES: Price Growth vs. Mortgage Payment Growth page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
19
 Mortgage payment lowest in 7 months, despite
higher median price
California Median Price vs. Mortgage Payment
20%
15%
YTY% Chg.

10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
Mar-17 -7.35%
Jan-16
Mar-16

Jul-16
Sep-16

Jan-17

Jul-17
Sep-17

Jan-18
Mar-18

Jul-18
Sep-18

Jan-19

Jul-19
Sep-19
May-16

Nov-16

May-17

Nov-17

May-18

Nov-18

Mar-19
May-19
Price Growth Mortgage Pmt Growth
SERIES: Price Growth vs. Mortgage Payment Growth page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
20
 Mortgage payment dipped but still high

$3,000
California, September 2018: $2,380, September 2019: $2,206

$2,500
Mortgage Payment

$2,000

$1,500

$1,000

$500

$0

SERIES: Mortgage Payment of Existing SFH page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
21
Monthly mortgage: more affordable

Region Sep 2019 Sep 2018 % CHG

CA SFH $2,205.68 $2,380.49 -7.3%

Los Angeles
$1,984.70 $2,140.07 -7.3%
Metropolitan Area

Central Coast $2,530.95 $2,794.39 -9.4%

Central Valley $1,239.07 $1,337.54 -7.4%

Inland Empire $1,402.04 $1,514.51 -7.4%

S.F. Bay Area $3,204.66 $3,827.42 -16.3%

SERIES: Monthly mortgage payment page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
22
 Most counties pay lower mortgage payments
Sep 2019: chg. in mortgage payment (yty%)
30% 27%

20%

10%

0%

-10% -7%
-20%
-23%
-30%

SERIES: Change in mortgage payment page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
23
 Growth of list price vs. sales price

40%
Listing Price Sales Price
30%
YTY% Chg. in Price

20%

10%

0%

-10%

-20%
Jan-12

Sep-12
Jan-13

Sep-13
Jan-14

Sep-14
Jan-15

Sep-15
Jan-16

Sep-16
Jan-17

Sep-17
Jan-18

Sep-18
Jan-19

Sep-19
May-12

May-13

May-14

May-15

May-16

May-17

May-18

May-19
SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
24
Down payment: remain elevated for most areas

Region Sep 2019 Sep 2018 % CHG

CA SFH $121,136 $115,684 4.7%

Los Angeles
$109,000 $104,000 4.8%
Metropolitan Area

Central Coast $139,000 $135,798 2.4%

Central Valley $68,050 $65,000 4.7%

Inland Empire $77,000 $73,600 4.6%

S.F. Bay Area $176,000 $186,000 -5.4%

SERIES: Down payment page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
25
 Many counties require higher down payments
Sep 2019: chg. in down payment (yty $)
$30,000
$23,000
$20,000

$10,000 $5,452
$0

-$10,000

-$20,000

-$30,000 -$26,000

SERIES: Change in mortgage payment page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
26
 Market Velocity

150.0%

-150.0%
-50.0%
0.0%
50.0%
100.0%

-100.0%
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Price Growth

Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Market Velocity (6 month trailing average)

Mar-17
Jun-17
Sep-17
Dec-17
California Market Velocity and Price Growth

Mar-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
Sep-19
Market Velocity

SERIES: Market Velocity & Price Growth

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
50.0%
40.0%

-50.0%
-40.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%

-30.0%

Existing SFR Median Price

27

Growth
page
 Inventory &
Active Listings
 Inventory index declined as sales climbed
while active listings fell
18.0
16.0 September 2018: 4.2 Months; September 2019: 3.5 Months
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
May-06

May-08
Jan-05

Sep-05

Jan-07

Sep-07

Jan-09

Sep-09

Sep-11

Sep-17

Sep-19
May-10

Jan-11

May-12

Jan-13

Sep-13

May-14

Jan-15

Sep-15

May-16

Jan-17

May-18

Jan-19
SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
29
 Supply improved only at the
upper end of the market
September 2019

20% Active Listing

10.3%
10%
0.8%
0%
-10% -7.6%
-11.8%
-20% -15.2% -17.7%
-20.3%
-30%

SERIES: Active Listings of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
30
 Regional inventory mostly flat

9.0
8.0 Bay Area So CA Central Valley
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0 3.6
3.0 3.1
2.0 2.9
1.0
0.0

Jul-14
Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19
Jul-09

Jul-10

Jul-11

Jul-12

Jul-13

Jul-15

Jul-16

Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19
SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
31
 Inventory Index Highest in Millions

California Unsold Inventory Index by Segment

14
11.9 12.0
12
10
8 7.1
6.2
6 4.43.7 4.64.7 5.04.8 4.2 3.5
3.83.4 3.83.2 4.0 3.53.6
4 3.0
2
0

Sep-18 Sep-19

SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
32
 Active listings dropped by double-digits

Year-over-Year % Chg
40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%
-11.8%
-20%
Mar-15

Sep-15

Mar-16

Sep-16

Mar-17

Sep-17

Mar-18

Sep-18

Mar-19

Sep-19
May-16
May-15
Jul-15

Nov-15

Jul-16

Nov-16

May-17
Jul-17

Nov-17

May-18
Jul-18

Nov-18

May-19
Jul-19
Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19
SERIES: Active Listing of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
33
 Active listings decreased in all regions

Sep-18 Sep-19
35,000 32,983
30,000 27,346
Active Listings

25,000
20,000
15,000 12,330
9,630
10,000 8,140 7,658
5,000 2,816 2,782
0
San Francisco Bay Southern California Central Valley Central Coast
Area
SERIES: Active Listings of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
34
 Active listings in SoCal & Central Valley
dropped significantly

September 2019
20% Sales Active Listings
10.4%
Year-to-Year % Chg

10% 6.2% 7.5% 6.6%

0%
-1.2%
-10% -5.9%

-20% -17.3%
-21.9%
-30%
San Francisco Bay Southern California Central Valley Central Coast
Area
SERIES: Sales and Listings of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
35
Active listings tightened up

California Active Listings by Month

70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0

2018 2019

CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

page
36
Market Competitiveness
 Time on market up as market
transitions into the low season

80 California, September 2019: 24.0 Days

70
60
DAYS ON MARKET

50
40
30
20
10
0
May-10
Jan-05
Sep-05

Jan-07
Sep-07

Jan-09
Sep-09

Jan-11
Sep-11

Jan-13
Sep-13

Jan-15
Sep-15

Jan-17
Sep-17

Jan-19
Sep-19
May-06

May-08

May-12

May-14

May-16

May-18
SERIES: Median Time of Market of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
38
Median time on market up in most percentiles

Median Time on Market

50
43
40

30 26 27
2424 25 25
23 2223 22 2223 22 2324
2121 21 21
20

10

0
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100 Total
Percentile
Sep-18 Sep-19

SERIES: Median Time on Market of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
39
 Sales-to-list price ratio down at top percentile

California Sales-to-List Price Ratio by Quintile

100.5%
100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
100.0%
99.5%
99.5% 99.2%
99.0% 98.8% 98.8% 98.6%
98.5%
98.0%
97.5% 97.3%
97.0%
96.5%
96.0%
95.5%
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100
Sep-18 Sep-19
SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
40
 Median sales vs. list price growth $1M+ properties

California Median Sales vs. List Price Growth

15%
YTY% Chg. in Price

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%
Jul-11

Aug-13

Jul-16

Aug-18
Mar-13
Jun-09

Jun-14
Jan-09

Apr-10

Apr-15

Jun-19
Dec-16

Oct-17
Nov-09

Sep-10
Feb-11

Dec-11

Oct-12

Jan-14
May-12

Nov-14

Sep-15
Feb-16

Mar-18

Jan-19
May-17
Listing Price Sales Price

SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
41
 Reduced-Price Listings

Share of Listings with a Reduced Price: 41.5%; Median Reduction Amount: -4.4%

50% 0%
45% -1%
40% -2%
35% -3%
30% -4%
25% -5%
20% -6%
15% -7%
10% -8%
5% -9%
0% -10%

5/1/2016
1/1/2010
5/1/2010
9/1/2010
1/1/2011
5/1/2011
9/1/2011
1/1/2012
5/1/2012
9/1/2012
1/1/2013
5/1/2013
9/1/2013
1/1/2014
5/1/2014
9/1/2014
1/1/2015
5/1/2015
9/1/2015
1/1/2016

9/1/2016
1/1/2017
5/1/2017
9/1/2017
1/1/2018
5/1/2018
9/1/2018
1/1/2019
5/1/2019
9/1/2019
Share Reduced Median Reduction
SERIES: Listing Price of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
42
 Growth in Reduced-Price Listings

Growth in Share of Listings with a Reduced Price: -1.0%

Growth in Median Reduction Amount: 0.0%
8% 0.05%
6% 0.00%
4% -0.05%
-0.10%
2%
-0.15%
0% -0.20%
-2% -0.25%
-4% -0.30%
3/1/2015

1/1/2019
1/1/2015

5/1/2015
7/1/2015
9/1/2015

1/1/2016
3/1/2016
5/1/2016
7/1/2016
9/1/2016

1/1/2017
3/1/2017
5/1/2017
7/1/2017
9/1/2017

1/1/2018
3/1/2018
5/1/2018
7/1/2018
9/1/2018

3/1/2019
5/1/2019
7/1/2019
9/1/2019
11/1/2015

11/1/2016

11/1/2017

11/1/2018
Share Reduced Median Reduction

SERIES: Listing Price of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
43
Thank You