Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
Cost Estimation
Reference:
• Max Peters, Klaus Timmerhaus, Ronald West –
1
Cost Estimation
2
Cash Flow for Industrial Operation
3
Cumulative Cash Position of a project
4
Cumulative Cash Position of a project – (cont’d 1)
5
Cumulative Cash Position of a project – (cont’d 2)
The diagram assumes a constant cash flow rate from time zero
until the end of operations (not reality)
At shutdown, the working capital is recovered.
The relationships presented in the diagram are important to
understand the factors to be considered for cost estimation
This diagram is highly simplified and neglects the time value of
money and assumes constant annual profit and constant
annual depreciation (not reality)
6
Business Decision-making
Why this product
− Buy / make
− Backward integration
− Forward integration
− Unique first of product – leader position in the market
− Government incentives
− Sales demand – local, region, country, world
7
Business Decision-making (cont’d 1)
8
Business Decision-making (cont’d 2)
9
Business Decision-making (cont’d 3)
− Sourcing of equipment
> From within country / outside the country
> Credit facilities
How much more can be squeezed out existing plant by de-
bottlenecking / add on
Utilities / facilities
− Shared with neighbouring units
- ETP
- Storages
- Railway siding
- Fire tender
- Grid power or own power
- etc. 10
Business Decision-making (cont’d 4)
Funding
− Equity market
− Debt (Banks, financial institutions)
Business acumen
− Risk taking ability
11
Investment and Production Costs
13
Investment and Production Costs (cont’d 2)
• Company Policies
‾ Strict safety regulations
‾ Company accounting procedures – e.g., how is corporate
cost allocated among various companies
‾ Preferred mode of setting up a plant
- EPCM
- EPC (LSTK)
- Design / Supply…
‾ Modular Construction
14
Investment and Production Costs (cont’d 3)
• Government Policies
- Import and export tariffs (equipment, raw materials,
products…)
- Depreciation rates
- Environment and safety regulations
- Labour laws
- Income tax rules 15
Capital Investment
17
Capital Investment (cont’d 2)
18
Capital Investment (cont’d 3)
19
Estimation of Capital Investment
20
Table 1
Breakdown of fixed –capital investment items
for a chemical process plant
Direct Costs
1. Purchased equipment
All equipment listed on a complete P & I diagram
Spare parts aninstalled equipment spares
Surplus equipment, supplies, and equipment allowance
Inflation cost allowance
Freight charges
Taxes, insurance, duties
Allowance for modifications during start-up
2. Purchased-equipment installation
Installation of all equipment
Structural supports, insulation, paint
3. Instrumentation and controls
Purchase, installation, calibration, computer tie-in
21
Table 1 (Cont’d 1)
4. Piping
Process piping – carbon steel, alloy, cast iron, lead, lined, aluminium,
copper, ceramic, plastic, rubber, reinforced concrete, pipe fittings, valves,etc.,
pipe support / hangers
5. Electrical equipment and materials
Switches, motors, conduit, wire, fittings, feeders, grounding,
Instrument and control wiring, lighting, panels
6. Buildings (including superstructures)
Process buildings-substructures, superstructures, platforms, supports,
Stairways, ladders, access ways, cranes, monorails, hoists, elevators
Auxiliary buildings – administration and office, medical or dispensary,
cafeteria, garage, product warehouse, parts warehouse, guard and safety,
fire station, change house, personnel building, shipping office and platform,
research laboratory, control laboratory
Maintenance shops – electrical, plumbing, sheet metal, machine, welding,
carpentry, instrument
Building services – plumbing, heating, ve3ntilation, dust collection, air
conditioning, building lighting, elevators, telephones, intercommunication
systems, painting, sprinkler system, fire alarm 22
Table 1 (Cont’d 2)
7. Yard improvements
Site development – cleaning, grading, roads, walkways, railrods, fences, parking
areas, wharves and piers, recreational facilities, landscaping
8. Service facilities
Utilities – steam, water, power, refrigeration, complressed air, fuel, waste disposal
Facilities – boiler, plant incinerator, wells, river intake, water treatment, cooling
towers, water storage, electric substation, refrigeration plant, air plant, fuel
storage, waste disposal plant, environmental controls, fire protection
Non-process equipment – office furniture and equipment, cafeteria equipment,
safety and medical equipment, shop equipment, automotive equipment, yard
material handling equipment, laboratory equipment, locker room equipment,
garage equipment, shelves, bins, pallets, hand trucks, housekeeping
equipment, fire extinguishers, hoses, fire engines, loading stations
Distribution and packaging – raw material and product storage and handling
equipment, product packaging equipment, blending facilities, loading stations
9. Land
Surveys and fees
Land cost
23
Table 1 (Cont’d 3)
Indirect costs
24
Type of Capital Cost Estimates
25
Predesign Cost Estimate
26
Cost Estimating Information Guide
Preliminary estimate
Order of magnitude
Definitive estimate
Detailed estimate
Study estimate
>+30% range
+10% range
+20% range
+30% range
+5% range
Estimate
Next four slides are a guide to the various types of information required for cost
estimates, and the stages at which they are required.
27
Cost Estimating Information Guide (cont’d 1)
Order-of-magnitude Estimate
Preliminary Estimate
Definitive estimate
Detailed Estimate
Location ʘ ʘ ʘ ʘ
General description ʘ ʘ ʘ
Soil bearing ʘ ʘ ʘ
Site
Location, roads, impounds, fences ʘ ʘ ʘ
Rough sketches ʘ
Engineered ʘ ʘ
Engineered specifications ʘ ʘ
General arrangement
(a) preliminary ʘ ʘ
(b) engineered ʘ 28
Cost Estimating Information Guide (cont’d 2)
Order-of-magnitude
Definitive estimate
Detailed Estimate
Study Estimate
+/- 10% range
Detailed drawings ʘ
Order-of-magnitude Estimate
Preliminary Estimate
Definitive estimate
Detailed Estimate
Rough specifications ʘ
30
Cost Estimating Information Guide (cont’d 4)
Order-of-magnitude Estimate
Preliminary Estimate
Definitive estimate
Detailed Estimate
Distribution specifications ʘ
Well-developed drawings ʘ
Supervision ʘ
31
Cost Indexes
32
Cost Indexes (cont’d 1)
• Common indexes:
‾ Marshall and Swift: all Industry and Process Industry
equipment indexes
‾ Engineering News Record Construction index
‾ Nelson Farrar refinery construction index
‾ Chemical Engineering plant cost index
33
Cost Indexes (cont’d 2)
34
Cost Indexes (cont’d 3)
• All cost indexes are based on limited sampling of the goods and
services in question. Therefore the results can differ
considerably.
35
Cost Components in Capital Investment
36
Cost Components in Capital Investment (cont’d 1)
37
Cost Components in Capital Investment (cont’d 2)
38
Cost Components in Capital Investment (cont’d 3)
39
Cost Components in Capital Investment (cont’d 4)
‾ Wide variety of equipment have about the same cost per unit
weight. Purchase cost of vessels, tanks process and material
handling equipment can often be estimated this way
40
Example – Estimation of FCI using Table 6-3
41
Example – Estimation of FCI using Table 6-3
42
Graphs of Equipment Cost v/s Capacity
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
Purchased Equipment Cost by Scaling
Caution –
> check out the size range for which the exponent is
applicable
> In general it should not be used beyond ten-fold
range.
> Make certain the two pieces of equipment are similar
with regard to type, material of construction,
temperature, pressure, operating range, country of
origin…
55
Purchased Equipment Cost by Scaling (cont’d 2)
56
Purchased Equipment Cost by Scaling (cont’d 3)
57
Purchased Equipment Cost by Scaling (cont’d 4)
58
Methods for estimating capital investment
59
Methods for estimating capital investment (cont’d 1)
60
Methods for estimating capital investment (cont’d 2)
61
Methods for estimating capital investment (cont’d 3)
63
Methods for estimating capital investment (cont’d 5)
65
Methods for estimating capital investment (cont’d 7)
66
Methods for estimating capital investment (cont’d 8)
67
Methods for estimating capital investment (cont’d 9)
68
Methods for estimating capital investment (cont’d 10)
Method E : Power factor applied to plant/capacity ratio
• Provides study or order of magnitude estimate +/- 50%
• This estimate relates fixed capital estimate of a new process plant to
the fixed capital investment of a similar previous constructed plant by
an exponential plant ratio adjusted by a cost index ratio
Cn = CfeRx where
Cn = Capital investment of new plant
C = Capital investment of similar previous plant
fe = Cost index ratio at the time of cost Cn to the time
of the old facility
R = Capacity of new facility / capacity of old facility
x = power factor – averages 0.6 to 0.7 for process
facilities
69
Methods for estimating capital investment (cont’d 11)
70
Methods for estimating capital investment (cont’d 12)
71
Methods for estimating capital investment (cont’d 13)
73
Estimation of Revenue (cont’d 1)
74
Estimation of Total Product Cost (Cont’d 1)
Calculation of
Total Product cost:
basis
1 2 3
Daily basis Unit of product Annual basis
basis
Manufacturing costs
(also called production cost + General expenses
or operating costs)
76
Variable production costs
+
Manufacturing cost = Fixed charges
+
Plant overhead costs
Administrative expenses
+
Distribution and
General Expenses = marketing expenses
+
R & D expenses
77
Manufacturing cost
Variable production costs Fixed Charges
Raw materials Depreciation
Operating labour Taxes (property)
Operating supervision Financing (interest)
Utilities Insurance
Electricity Rent
Fuel
Refrigeration Plant overhead costs
Steam
Water, process Medical
Water, cooling Safety and protection
Waste treatment and disposal General plant overhead
Maintenance and repairs Payroll overhead
Operating supplies Packaging
Laboratory charges Restaurant
Royalties (if not on lump-sum basis) Recreation
Catalysts and solvents Salvage
Control Laboratories
Plant superintendence
Storage facilities
78
General Expenses
Administrative expenses Distribution and
marketing expenses
Executive salaries
Clerical wages
Sales offices
Engineering’
Sales personnel expenses
Legal costs
Advertising
Office maintenance
Technical sales service
Communications
79
Raw Materials
81
Operating Labour
• Operating Labour
- Divided into skilled and unskilled
- Best estimated from company experience with similar
processes and company policy
- Considerable difference between estimates for US and India
- As automation and controls have increased, labour
requirement has come down substantially
• Supervisory labour
- Depends greatly on the type of plant and company
experience and policy
82
Utilities
• Utilities
- Required types and quantities are established from flow
sheets
- Cost of utilities such as steam, process and cooling water,
refrigerants, dowtherm, compressed air, fuel oil etc. and
waste water treatment and disposal vary widely depending
on source, plant location, amount needed, etc.
- A utility may be purchased at a predetermined rate from an
external source or generated internally
83
Utilities (cont’d)
84
Repairs and Maintenance, Operating supplies
• Operating supplies
- Covers consumables such as lubricants, test chemicals, etc.
- Annual cost is around 15% of cost incurred for repairs and
maintenance
85
Laboratory Charges; Patents and Royalties
• Laboratory charges
- Covers cost of laboratory tests for control of operations and
product quality control
- Can be taken as 10% to 20% of operating labour
87
Fixed Charges
• Fixed charges
- Fixed charges are expenses which are practically
independent of production rate:
Depreciation
Property Taxes
Insurance
Financing costs (Loan interest)
Rents
- Depreciation should be calculated separately as per Income
Tax rules
- Fixed charges roughly amounts to about 10% to 20% of
total product cost
88
Plant Overhead Costs
89
General Expenses
• See Figure 6-1 of Timmerhaus for Cash Flow Tree Diagram for
industrial operations
90
Gross Profit
91
Net Profit; Cash flow from process
• Net Profit is the amount retained of the profit after income taxes
have been paid
- Net Profit (Npj) in the year j is
Npj = Gj (1 – Φ)
where
Φ = fixed income tax rate as a fraction of annual
gross profits
92
Break Even Point
• Occurs when
Total annual product cost = Total annual sales
93
Example
94