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STANLEY R. BULL
Invited Paper
Energy is essential to our society to ensure our quality of life U.S. grid-connected electricity from renewable resources is
and to underpin all other elements of our economy. Renewable en- available electronically [4].
ergy technologies offer the promise of clean, abundant energy gath- Renewable energy technologies offer important benefits
ered from self-renewing resources such as the sun, wind, earth,
and plants. Virtually all regions of the United States and the world compared to those of conventional energy sources [5].
have renewable resources of one type or another. Renewable re- Renewable energy resources are abundant; worldwide, 1000
sources currently account for about 10% of the energy consumed times more energy reaches the surface of the earth from
in the United States; most of this is from hydropower and tradi- the sun than is released today by all fossil fuels consumed.
tional biomass sources. Wind, solar, biomass, and geothermal tech- Table 1 gives the energy delivered per square meter of land
nologies are cost-effective today in an increasing number of mar-
kets, and are making important steps to broader commercialization. for four renewable resources [6]. Similar to fossil fuels,
Each of the renewable energy technologies is in a different stage of renewable energy resources are not uniformly distributed
research, development, and commercialization, and all have differ- throughout the world. However, every region has some re-
ences in current and future expected costs, current industrial base, newable energy resource. And, because different renewable
resource availability, and potential impact on greenhouse gas emis- energy resources complement each other, taken together
sions. The technical status, cost, and applications of major renew-
able energy technologies and implications for increased adoption they can contribute appreciably to energy security and
of renewables will be reviewed. regional development in every nation of the world, without
dependence on foreign energy sources that are subject to
Keywords—Earth, plants, sun, wind.
political instability or manipulation.
Most renewable energy systems are modular, allowing
I. PROGRESS IN RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES flexibility in matching load growth. Today’s markets for
The term “renewable energy” is energy derived from renewable energy technologies range from specialized niche
markets to centralized energy production. For centralized
a broad spectrum of resources, all of which are based on
self-renewing energy sources such as sunlight, wind, flowing energy production, renewable energy systems are relatively
water, the earth’s internal heat, and biomass such as energy capital intensive compared to competing conventional tech-
crops, agricultural and industrial waste, and municipal nologies such as natural gas combined cycle power plants.
waste. These resources can be used to produce electricity However, after the initial investments have been made,
for all economic sectors, fuels for transportation, and heat the economics of renewable energy technologies improve
for buildings and industrial processes. in comparison with conventional technologies because
Renewable energy contributes as much today to U.S. en- operating and maintenance costs are low compared with
ergy production as nuclear power (10%) [1]. Each renewable those incurred using conventional fuels. This is especially
energy technology is in a different stage of development and true in the regions of the world where world fuel prices are
commercialization. Some technologies are already commer- relatively high, and will be especially true in the future as
cial, at least for some situations and applications [2]. Of the fuel prices increase. For both solar and wind systems, the
renewable energy consumed in the United States in 1998, fuel cost is not only constant, it is zero, for the life of the
hydropower comprised 55%; biomass, including municipal system.
solid waste, 38%; geothermal, 5%; solar, 1%; and wind, 0.5% Renewable energy systems generate little if any waste
[3]. Detailed information on over 7000 facilities that generate or pollutants that contribute to acid rain, urban smog, and
health problems, and do not require environmental cleanup
costs or waste disposal fees. Potential global climate change,
Manuscript received September 28, 2000; revised April 1, 2001. caused by excess carbon dioxide and other gases in the
The author is with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden,
CO 80401 USA. atmosphere, is the latest environmental concern; systems
Publisher Item Identifier S 0018-9219(01)07247-4. using solar, wind, and geothermal sources do not contribute
energy conversion is relatively simple in concept, turbine The U.S. wind industry is thinly capitalized, except for the
design can be quite complex. Most commercially available acquisition of one major wind company by Enron; there have
wind turbines use a horizontal-axis configuration with two been two bankruptcy filings recently. Europe has twice as
or three blades, a drivetrain including a gearbox and gener- many wind manufacturing and developing companies; some
ator, and a tower to support the rotor. Typical sizes for a wind have already established North American manufacturing fa-
turbine range from 200–750 kW, with electricity produced cilities and are penetrating the U.S. market [31].
within a specific range of wind speeds.
Rapid progress in this technology has reduced costs until C. Biopower
they are competitive with those of conventional power [27].
Capital costs have declined from about $2.2/W in the early Biomass power plants generate electricity from biomass
1980s to less than $1/W today. Energy costs have decreased resources ranging from agricultural and forest product
from about $0.40/kW h to as low as $0.04–$0.06/kW h today residues to crops grown specifically for energy production.
in areas with good wind resources. In the United States, coop- Direct-combustion systems burn biomass in a boiler to
erative research between DOE and manufacturing companies produce steam that is expanded through a turbine/generator
is aimed at increasing the aerodynamic efficiency and struc- to produce power; cofiring substitutes biomass for coal in
tural strength of wind turbine blades, developing variable- existing coal-fired boilers; gasification converts biomass to a
speed generators and electronic power controls, and using fuel gas that can be substituted for natural gas in combustion
taller towers that allow access to the stronger winds found turbines. Today’s U.S. biopower industry—approximately
at greater heights. Projected energy costs for these advanced 1000 plants—consists of direct-combustion plants with
machines are $0.02–$0.04/kW h [28], [29]. a small amount of cofiring. Plant size averages 20 MW
Wind resources are abundant throughout the world. In with efficiencies of about 20% and electricity costs of
the United States, good resources can be found in 34 of the $0.08–$0.12/kW h. Grid-connected capacity has increased
50 states. For example, the wind resources in North Dakota from less than 200 MW in 1978 to more than 7500 MW
alone could supply as much as 36% of all the electricity in 1998. About 70% of this is in the forest products and
consumed by the lower 48 states. sugarcane industries; municipal solid waste plants provide
More than 3900 MW of additional wind capacity, totaling additional capacity of 3300 MW [32]. Biopower capacity
$3.9 billion in sales, was installed worldwide in 2000 [30]. in the rest of the world is about 20 000–25 000 MW, and
This reflects a 35% annual growth rate in total installations in international markets are strong with at least six major
2000; international markets have been growing much more multinational companies actively involved in the industry.
rapidly than U.S. markets (see Fig. 3). Installed capacity in Research focuses on doubling or tripling the conversion
Europe, dominated by Germany and Denmark, has surpassed efficiency of commercial plants, reducing costs further, and
installations in the United States, and is rapidly increasing; resolving issues related to biomass residual ash [33], [34].
the United States installed only 30 MW in 2000. China al-
ready has more than 100 000 wind turbines generating elec- D. Biofuels
tricity and pumping water in rural areas far from existing
power lines. According to the American Wind Energy As- Ethanol is frequently used as a gasoline additive, or con-
sociation, as much as 13 500 additional megawatts of wind verted to another additive called ethyl tertiary-butyl ether,
capacity may be installed worldwide in the next decade. to raise the octane level of gasoline and promote cleaner
Solid-oxide fuel cells are being demonstrated by major man- can serve as a standby generator or serve as an uninterrupt-
ufacturers for potential cogenerators in commercial and mul- ible power supply. More and more consumers are in need of
tifamily residential buildings. Proton exchange membrane electric service 24/7 without interruption. Distributed power
cells using hydrogen (currently reformed from methanol) are offers an approach to this need.
being developed for both transportation and electricity appli- There are barriers to robust implementation of distributed
cations [53], [54]. power. The key barrier today is interconnection with the grid.
Although hydrogen fuel cells are used routinely by NASA The IEEE is leading the development of a consensus stan-
for space missions, terrestrial applications are still in their in- dard for interconnection. This standard, when completed, is
fancy. The lack of an economical process for hydrogen pro- intended to ensure that distributed systems operate safely and
duction and suitable storage methods are two of the greatest reliably and are applied in a uniform way across the U.S.
obstacles to commercialization, especially in the transporta- power system. With this standard and associated testing in
tion sector. Research goals include developing technologies place, the installation and operation of distributed systems
to produce hydrogen from sunlight and water and biomass; will be streamlined.
developing low-cost and low-weight hydrogen storage tech-
nologies for both stationary and vehicle-based applications, II. TODAY’S TRENDS AND ISSUES AFFECTING RENEWABLES
such as carbon nanotubes and metal hydrides; and devel-
oping codes and standards to enable the widespread use of As is evident from the preceding discussion, scientific
hydrogen technologies. and engineering advances continue to strongly influence
the progress of renewable energy technology development,
as do advances in information technology. Easily accessed
H. Distributed Power
web sites relating to renewable energy technologies provide
Distributed power is modular electric generation from rel- valuable and accurate information that is easily accessible
atively small generating systems ranging from less than a by everyone. Real-time metering is opening up innovative
kilowatt to tens of megawatts and located at or near consumer electricity pricing [55]; sophisticated equipment and controls
sites. Distributed systems can either be grid connected or op- are improving the use of energy in buildings; and complex
erate independent of the grid. The goal of proponents of dis- systems are being modeled in the laboratory, accelerating
tributed power is to reinvent the power grid so that instead of technology development.
producing electricity only at large, central plants and trans- But despite the excellent technical progress of the last
mitting it in one direction, consumers would have some de- 20 years, electricity and fuels from renewable energy are
gree of energy independence and open the system to millions still generally more expensive than electricity and fuels
of small suppliers. from conventional fossil-fuel sources, with some excep-
With distributed power, homes and businesses could tions. Table 2 summarizes the economic potential of major
produce power using technologies such as fuel cells, pho- renewable energy electric systems. Although it is difficult to
tovoltaic systems, wind turbines, biomass based generators, compare costs of electricity from renewable technologies to
microturbines, engine/generator sets, and electric storage those of conventional grid electricity, it should be noted that
systems. Excess power could be sold to the grid adding to the average retail price of electricity in the United States is
grid capacity and consumers could obtain power from the $0.07/kW h, which is less than most renewables. The cost
grid when needed or desired. of electricity and fuels from renewable energy would easily
The benefits of distributed power systems are seen to be be less expensive than fossil fuels if the true, hidden costs of
reliability of service and power quality. In addition, greater fossil fuels—environmental costs, health costs, and energy
efficiency of energy use is realized by using the heat loss security costs—were considered. But our society has not
from the power generation system. One of the biggest drivers yet found acceptable ways to incorporate these hidden costs
today with rolling blackouts in some parts of the country is it into the cost of our energy.
Demand for energy in developing nations has been in- • emergence of a new economic structure in the elec-
creasing more rapidly than in the industrialized nations for tricity sector;
the past 20 years or more, and is projected to increase even • trends toward decentralization and modularity;
more rapidly, especially in China, India, and other growing • explosive advances in computers, information, and
economies in Asia [78]–[81]. Nations seeking to maintain telecommunications;
independence are looking to develop indigenous sources of • globalization of markets;
energy and their own energy infrastructure, in contrast to • persistent, pervasive support for a clean environment;
fossil-fuel-based energy systems ultimately controlled by a • limited future availability of inexpensive fossil fuels.
very few nations [82]. Developing countries are also looking Do these converging trends mean that we are on the brink
to avoid the environmental problems created by conventional of a new energy transition from fossil fuels to renewables?
energy systems. In response, international lending institu- Several independent entities have recently developed sce-
tions such as the World Bank have begun to target programs narios indicating that renewable energy will play a major role
to environmentally friendly energy technologies such as re- in the energy mix for the world, with increasing impacts be-
newables. All of these trends are quickly opening up strong ginning as early as 2000–2010 and major impacts by 2050
international markets for renewables. [84]–[89]. In both of the Shell International scenarios, en-
ergy contributions from conventional energy resources begin
III. TOMORROW’S IMPACT OF RENEWABLE ENERGY ON to level off in 20–30 years, with petroleum consumption ac-
THE WORLD
tually decreasing (see Fig. 6) [90]. According to these sce-
narios, the increases in world energy demand will be sup-
From the dawn of human civilization to about 100 years plied by renewable energy technologies, which will provide
ago, the sources of energy used by mankind were predom- 30%–50% of world energy by 2050.
inantly human and animal muscle and wood, with lesser Although these scenarios are important, and should be
amounts of solar, wind, hydro, and geothermal. With the studied and debated, it may be even more significant that
discovery of oil, the development of natural gas fields, and four international companies have recently made major
the widespread distribution of electricity from coal-powered investments in renewables. In October 1997, the Royal
central power plants, fossil fuels became the predominant Dutch/Shell Group created Shell International Renewables
sources of energy in the United States and the world. Is with a $500 million investment, focusing on solar, biomass,
there another major transition ahead for energy? Can the and forestry [91]. In January 1998, British Petroleum (BP),
renewable resources that sustained early civilization be through its BP Solar subsidiary, opened a 10–15 MW photo-
harnessed with enough efficiency and availability and at a voltaics facility (its sixth in the world) in California. Enron
cost to meet a significant portion of the much higher energy Corporation, one of the world’s largest natural gas compa-
needs of today’s society? nies, entered into a joint venture with Amoco Corporation
Although there are always risks in predictions, the conver- in 1995 to form the largest U.S.-owned producer of PV cells
gence of some of today’s trends suggests interesting possibil- and the second largest in the world. Enron then acquired the
ities [83]. In summary, today’s converging trends related to largest U.S. wind energy company in 1997 and formed a new
renewable energy include: business unit, Enron Renewable Energy Corporation [92].
• relevant scientific discoveries and engineering Most recently, Amoco and British Petroleum announced
progress; a merger. And Bechtel, the international engineering and