Air quality 605

13.Air quality
This case study is based on a data set kindly provided by the French
association for Air Quality Monitoring ATMO Alsace («Source
d’information ASPA 05020802-ID» - www.atmo-alsace.net).

The case study covers rather exhaustively a large panels of Isatis

features. Its main objectives are to:
• estimate the annual mean of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) over Alsace in
2004 using classical geostatistical algorithms,
• perform risk analysis by:
- the estimation of the local risk to exceed a sanitary threshold of
40 µg/m3 using conditional expectation (multi-gaussian kriging),
- the quantification of the statistical distribution of population
potentially exposed to NO2 concentrations higher than 40 µg/m3.

Last update: Isatis version 2018

606

13.3 Presentation of the data set

13.3.1 Creation of a new study
First, before loading the data, create a new study using the File / Data File Manager functionality.

(snap. 13.3-1)

It is then advised to check the consistency of the units defined in the Preferences / Study
Environment / Units panel:

l Input-Output Length Options window: unit in meters (Length), with its Format set to Decimal
with Length = 10 and Digits = 2.

l Graphical Axis Units window: X and Y units in kilometers.

13.3.2 Import of the data

13.3.2.1 Import of NO2 diffusive samples
The first data set is provided in the Excel file NO2 samples.xls (located in the Isatis installation
directory/Datasets/Air_Quality). It contains the values of NO2 measured with diffusive samples in
Alsace.

The procedure File / Import / Excel is used to load the data. First you have to specify the path of
your data using the button Excel File. In order to create a new directory and a new file in the current
study, the button Points File is used to enter the names of these two items; click on the New
Directory button and give a name, do the same for the New File button, for instance:

l New directory = Data

l New file = NO2

You have to tick the box First Available Row Contains Field Names and click on the Automatic
button to load the variables contained in the file.
Air quality 607

At last, you have to define the type of each variable:

l The coordinates ’Easting(X)’ and ’Northing(Y)’ for X_COORD_UTM and

Y_COORD_UTM,

l The alphanumeric variables Location and Typology,

l The ’numeric 32 bits’ variable NO2,

l The ’numeric 1 bit’ variable Background to automatically consider it as a selection variable.

This «background» vector refers to the type of monitoring point (1 indicates a background
pollution, rural, peri-urban or urban site and 0 a proximity pollution with industrial or traffic
site).

Finally, you have to press Import.

(snap. 13.3-1)
608

13.3.2.2 Import of auxiliary data

The second data set is provided in the Excel spreadsheet Auxiliary data.xls. It contains the auxiliary
variables Altitude and Emissions of NOx that could increase the quality of NO2 mapping in case
of relevant correlation with this pollutant. The variable Pop99 represents the density of inhabitants
living in the region in 1999; it will be used in the estimation of population exposure.

To import this file, you have to do a File / Import / Excel in the target directory Data and the new
file Auxiliary data.

13.3.2.3 Import of polygons

The next essential task for this study is to define the area of interest. This contour is loaded as a 2D
polygon.

The polygon delineating the two departments of the Alsace region (Bas-Rhin and Haut-Rhin) is
contained in an ASCII file, called Alsace_contours.pol, whose header describes the contents:

l the polygon level which corresponds to the lines starting with the ** symbol,

l the contour level which corresponds to the lines starting with the * symbol.
#
# [ISATIS POLYGONS] Study: ASPA - Campagne Regionale 2004 Directory: Donnees
File: Contours
#
# Polygons Dimension = 2D
#
# polygon_field = 1 , type = name
# polygon_field = 2 , type = x_label , unit = "km"
# polygon_field = 3 , type = y_label , unit = "km"
#
# ++++++++++++ ---------- ++++++++++
#
# vertex_field = 1 , type = x , unit = "km" , f_type=Decimal , f_length=10 ,
f_digits=2
# vertex_field = 2 , type = y , unit = "km" , f_type=Decimal , f_length=10 ,
f_digits=2
#
# ++++++++++ ----------
#
** Bas-Rhin 393.42 5391.85
*
434.27 5407.18
433.06 5405.97
431.02 5404.44
.../...
434.29 5408.68
** Haut-Rhin 371.18 5302.14
*
353.01 5287.31
352.84 5287.73
.../...
352.65 5284.33
352.05 5285.49

This polygon is read using the File / Polygons Editor functionality. This application stands as a
graphic window with a large Application Menu. You must first choose the New Polygon File option
to create a file where the 2D polygon attributes will be stored: the file is called Alsace in the
directory Data.
Air quality 609

(snap. 13.3-1)

The next task consists in loading the contents of the ASCII Polygon File using the ASCII Import
functionality in the Application Menu.

(snap. 13.3-2)

The polygons now appear in the graphic window. You can easily distinguish the ’Bas-Rhin’ and the
’Haut-Rhin’.
610

(snap. 13.3-3)

The final action consists in performing the Save and Run task in order to store the polygon file in
the general data file system of Isatis.
Air quality 611

13.4 Pre-processing
13.4.1 Creation of a target grid
All the estimation and simulation results will be stored as different variables of a new grid file
located in the directory Data. This grid, called Grid, is created using the File / Create Grid File
functionality. It is adjusted on the Auxiliary data.

(snap. 13.4-1)
612

Using the Graphic Check option, the procedure offers the graphical capability of checking that the
new grid reasonably overlays the data points and is consistent with the 1 km x 1 km resolution of
the auxiliary variables.

(snap. 13.4-2)
Air quality 613

13.4.2 Migration of the Auxiliary data on the Grid

After the creation of the grid, the second task consists in migrating the auxiliary variables on the
grid. This action is performed using the Tools / Migrate / Point -> Grid functionality.

(snap. 13.4-3)
614

13.4.3 Delineation of the interpolation area

You have to create a polygon selection on the grid to delineate the interpolation area by the File /
Selection / From Polygons functionality. The distinction between ’Bas-Rhin’ and ’Haut-Rhin’ is not
important in this study. So, in order to consider the interpolation on the entire domain, the new
selection variable, called Alsace, will take into account the points inside the two regions.

(snap. 13.4-4)
Air quality 615

13.4.4 Creation of data selection

An other way to create the Background selection is to use the File / Selection / Alphanumeric
functionality. Only the samples for which the value taken by the alphanumeric variable Typology is
equal to ’rural’, ’periurban’ or ’urban’ will be kept in the new selection Background
(alphanumeric selection).

(snap. 13.4-5)
616

13.5 Exploratory Data Analysis

In the Statistics / Exploratory Data Analysis panel, the first task consists in defining the file and
variable of interest, namely NO2. To achieve that, click on the Data File button and select the
variable. By pressing the corresponding icon (eight in total), you can successively perform several
statistical representations, using default parameters or by choosing appropriate parameters.

(snap. 13.5-1)

For example, to calculate the histogram with 32 classes between 4 and 68 µg/m3 (2 units interval),
first you have to click on the histogram icon (third from the left); a histogram calculated with
default values is displayed, then enter the previous values in the Application / Calculation
Parameters menu bar of the Histogram page. If you switch on the Define Parameters Before Initial
Calculations option you can skip the default histogram display.

Clicking on the base map (first icon from the left), the dispersion of diffusive samples on Alsace
appears. Each active sample is represented by a cross proportional to the NO2 value. A sample is
active if its value for a given variable is defined and not masked.
Air quality 617

0.125
Nb Samples: 60
5400 Minimum: 4.00
Maximum: 67.00
Mean: 26.10
0.100 Std. Dev.: 12.66
Y (km)

Frequencies
5350
0.075

0.050

5300

0.025

5250
0.000
350 360 370 380 390 400 410 420 430 440 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
X (km) NO2

(fig. 13.5-1)

You can identify the typology of each sample on the base map entering the variable Typology as a
Literal Code Variable on the Application / Graphic Specific Parameters.

The different graphic windows are dynamically linked. If you want to locate the particularly high
NO2 concentrations, select on the histogram the higher values, right click and choose the Highlight
option. The highlighted values are now represented by a blue star on the base map; with a zoom you
can see that values are attached to traffic or urban sites.

urban
rural
periurban
periurban rural
rural
rural
urban 0.125
urbanrural Nb Samples: 60
5400 rural Minimum: 4.00
urban industry Maximum: 67.00
urban
periurban
traffic
urban
urban
urban Mean: 26.10
traffic
rural
periurban 0.100 Std. Dev.: 12.66
ruralrural
urban
urban
Y (km)

rural
urban
Frequencies

5350 rural
rural 0.075
periurban
periurban
traffic
urban
periurban
periurban
periurban rural

ruralurban rural
0.050
rural
industry
industry rural
5300 industry
traffic
periurban
rural industry
traffic
periurban
urban
industry
periurban

urban rural
periurban 0.025

periurban

5250
0.000
350 360 370 380 390 400 410 420 430 440 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
X (km) NO2

(fig. 13.5-2)
618

Then, an experimental variogram can be calculated by clicking on the 7th statistical representation,
with 20 lags of 5km and a proportion of the lag of 0.5. The number of pairs may be added to the
graphic by switching on the appropriate button in the Application / Graphic Specific Parameters.
The variogram cloud is obtained by ticking the box Calculate the Variogram Cloud in the
Variogram Calculation Parameters.

(snap. 13.5-2)
Air quality 619

(snap. 13.5-3)

By highlighting the high values on the variogram cloud, you can see that these values are due to the
same ’traffic’ sample.

If you mask this point on the base map (right click), the number of pairs taken into account in the
computation of the experimental variogram decreases, like the variability of the variogram.
620

urban
rural
periurban
periurban rural
rural rural
urban 300
urban 87
rural rural 2000
5400
urbanindustry 69
urban
periurban
traffic
urban
urban
urban
traffic
rural
periurban
rural
rural 78
urban
urban 53
1500
85 73

Variogram : NO2
200

Variogram : NO2
Y (km)

rural
urban 63
5350 rural 90
80117 51
rural
periurban 104 63
periurban
traffic
urban
periurban
periurban
periurban rural
1000 55
rural rural 32
urban 50 54 80
rural 18 79
industry
5300 industry rural
industry 100
traffic
periurban
rural industry
traffic
periurban
urban
industry
periurban

urban rural 500

periurban
87 69
periurban 78 53 73 63
1048011790 63 85 51
1850 54 80 79 32 55
5250
350360370380390400410420430440 0 0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
X (km) Distance (km) Distance (km)

urban
rural
periurban
periurban rural
rural rural
urban 83
2000 76
urban
rural
5400 rural 66
200
urbanindustry 51
urban
periurban
traffic
urban
urban
urban
traffic
rural
periurban
ruralrural
urban 63 60
urban 1500 7911587 70

Variogram : NO2
Variogram : NO2

150
79
Y (km)

rural
urban 49 55
5350 rural 100
rural
periurban 32
periurban
traffic
urban
periurban
periurban
periurban rural 1000 53
100 79
rural rural 77
urban 45
rural
industry
5300 industry rural
industry 15
traffic
periurban
rural industry
traffic
periurban
urban
industry
periurban
500 50
urban rural
periurban
83 76 66 51
periurban 7911587 63 79 32 49 55 70 60
53 79 77100
1545
5250 0 0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
350360370380390400410420430440
Distance (km) Distance (km)
X (km)

(fig. 13.5-3)

Nearby road and industrial measurements, which are often linked to high values of NO2, have an
important impact on the variability but they are not representative of the pollution, considering the
chosen mesh grid. So, only the background samples are retained from now on, and particularly for
the calculation of the variogram by activating the Input Data selection Background (choose the
NO2 variable and click on the Background selection in the left part of the File and Variable
Selector).
Air quality 621

(snap. 13.5-4)
622

urban
rural
periurban
periurban rural
rural
rural
urban 0.15
Nb Samples: 49
urban
rural Minimum: 4.00
5400 rural
Maximum: 44.00
urban urban Mean: 22.92
periurban
urban
urban
urban Std. Dev.: 10.36
rural
periurban
ruralrural
urban
urban

0.10
Y (km)

Frequencies
rural
urban
5350 rural
rural
periurban
periurban
urban
periurban
periurban
periurban rural

ruralurban rural
rural
rural 0.05
5300
periurban
rural
urban
periurban
periurban
urban rural
periurban

periurban

5250 0.00
0 10 20 30 40
350 360 370 380 390 400 410 420 430 440
NO2
X (km)

67 34
800 55

61
700 150
44

600 70 43
42 67
Variogram : NO2

Variogram : NO2

58
21 30
500 73 56 34
100

400
46
54
300

50 31
200 67 55 34 22
61
44
70 58 42 67 43
73 56 21 34 30
100 46 54
22 31 9
9
0 0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Distance (km) Distance (km)

(fig. 13.5-4)

The number of diffusive samples falls to 49 instead of 60, the maximum concentration decreases
from 67 to 44 µg/m3 and the standard deviation drops from 12.66 to 10.36 µg/m3.

In order to perform the fitting step, it is now time to store the final experimental variogram with the
item Save in Parameter File of the Application menu of the Variogram Page. You will call it NO2.
Air quality 623

13.6 Fitting a variogram model

The procedure Statistics / Variogram Fitting allows you to fit an authorized model on an
experimental variogram.

You must first specify the file name of the Parameter File which contains the experimental
variogram: this is the file NO2 created in the previous paragraph.

Then you need to define another Parameter File which will ultimately contain the model: you will
also call it NO2. Although they carry the same name, there will be no ambiguity between these two
files as their contents belong to two different types.

Common practice is to find, by trial and error, the set of parameters defining the model which fits
the experimental variogram as closely as possible. The quality of the fit is checked graphically on
one of the two windows:

l The global window where all experimental variograms, in all directions and for all variables are
displayed.

l The fitting window where you focus on one given experimental variogram, for one variable and
in one direction.

In our case, as the Parameter File refers to only one experimental variogram for the single variable
NO2, there is obviously no difference between the two windows.
624

(snap. 13.6-1)

The principle consists in editing the Model parameters and checking the impact graphically. You
can also use the variogram initialization by selecting a single structure or a combination of
structures in Model initialization and by adding or not a nugget effect. Here, we choose an
exponential model without nugget. Pressing the Fit button in the Automatic Fitting tab, the
procedure automatically fits the range and the sill of the variogram (see the Variogram fitting
section from the User’s guide).

Then go to the Manual Fitting tab and press the Edit button to access to the panel used for the
Model definition and modify the model displayed. Each modification of the Model parameters can
be validated using the Test button in order to update the graphic. Here, we enter a (practical) range
of 48 km and a sill of 120 to a better fitting of the model to the experimental variogram. This model
is saved in the Parameter File for future use by clicking on the Run (Save) button.
Air quality 625

(snap. 13.6-2)

67 34
55

61
150
44

70 42 67 43
Variogram : NO2

58
21 30
73 56 34
100

46
54

50 31
22

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Distance (km) (fig. 13.6-1)
626

13.7 Kriging of NO2

The kriging procedure Interpolate / Estimation / (Co-)Kriging requires the definition of:

l the Input information: variable NO2 in the Data File (with the selection Background),

l the following variables in the Output Grid File, where the results will be stored (with the
selection Alsace):
m the estimation result in Estimation for NO2 (Kriging),
m the standard deviation of the error estimation in Std for NO2 (Kriging),

l the Model: NO2,

l the neighborhood: Unique.

To define the neighborhood, you have to click on the Neighborhood button and you will be asked to
select or create a new set of parameters; in the New File Name area enter the name Unique, then
click on OK or press Enter and you will be able to set the neighborhood parameters by clicking on
the respective Edit button.

By default, a moving neighborhood is proposed. Due to the skimpy number of diffusive samples
(less than 100), an unique neighborhood is preferred. The entire set of data will therefore be used
during the interpolation process at any grid node. An advantage of the unique neighborhood is that
during computation the kriging matrix inversion is performed once and for all.

The only thing to do is to select Unique in the Neighborhood Type and click on OK.

(snap. 13.7-1)
Air quality 627

(snap. 13.7-2)

In the Standard (Co-)Kriging panel, a special feature allows you to test the choice of parameters,
through a kriging procedure, on a graphical basis (Test button). A first click within the graphic area
displays the target file (the grid). A second click allows the selection of one grid node in particular.
The target grid node may also be entered in the Test Window / Application / Selection of Target
option (see the status line at the bottom of the graphic page), for instance the node [62,128].

The figure shows the data set, the sample chosen in the neighborhood (all data in our case with an
unique neighborhood) and their corresponding weights. The bottom of the screen recalls the
estimation value, its standard deviation and the sum of the weights.
628

(snap. 13.7-3)
Air quality 629

In the Application/Selection for Display menu of the Test Graphic Window, tick Print Information
During Test and select the Print Mode Weights & Results. This produces a printout of:

l the calculation environment: target location, model and neighborhood,

l the kriging system,

l the list of the neighboring data and the corresponding weights,

l the summary of this kriging test.

Results for : Punctual

- For variable V1
Number of Neighbors = 49
Mean Distance to the target = 51732.22m
Total sum of the weights = 1.000000
Sum of positive weights = 1.179724
Weight attached to the mean = 0.008992
Lagrange parameter = -0.104556
Estimated value = 29.200666
Estimation variance = 42.828570
Estimation standard deviation = 6.544354
Variance of Z* (Estimated Z) = 77.380543
Covariance between Z and Z* = 77.275987
Correlation between Z and Z* = 0.801933
Slope of the regression Z | Z* = 0.998649
Kriging Efficiency = N/A
Signal to Noise ratio (final) = 2.801868

Click on Run to interpolate the data on the entire grid.

630

13.8 Displaying the graphical results

The kriging results are now visualized using several combinations of the display capabilities.

You are going to create a new Display template, that consists in an overlay of a grid raster and NO2
data locations. All the display facilities are explained in detail in the «Displaying & Editing
Graphics» chapter of the Beginner’s Guide.

Click on Display / New Page in the Isatis main window. A blank graphic page is popped up,
together with a Contents window. You have to specify in this window the contents of your graphic.
To achieve that:

l Firstly, give a name to the template you are creating: Estimation for NO2 (Kriging). This will
allow you to easily display again this template later.

l In the Contents list, double click on the Raster item. A new window appears, in order to let you
specify which variable you want to display and with which color scale:
m In the Data area, in the Grid file select the variable Estimation for NO2 (Kriging),
m Specify the title that will be given to the Raster part of the legend, for instance NO2 (µg/
m3),
m In the Graphic Parameters area, specify the Color Scale you want to use for the raster
display. You may use an automatic default color scale, or create a new one specifically
dedicated to the NO2 variable. To create a new color scale, click on the Color Scale button,
double-click on New Color Scale and enter a name: NO2, and press OK. Click on the Edit
button. In the Color Scale Definition window:
- In the Bounds Definition, choose User Defined Classes.
- Click on the Bounds button and enter the min and the max bounds (respectively 0 and 50).
- Do not change the Number of Classes (32).
- Switch on the Invert Color Order toggle in order to affect the red colors to the large NO2
values.
- Click on the Undefined Values button and select Transparent.
- In the Legend area, switch off the Automatic spacing between Tick Marks button, enter 0
as the reference tick mark and 5 as the step between the tick marks. Then, specify that you
do not want your final color scale to exceed 6cm.
- Deselect Display Undefined Values as to not specify a specific label for the undefined
classes.
- Click on OK.
m In the Item contents for: Raster window, click on Display to display the result.
Air quality 631

(snap. 13.8-1)
632

l Back in the Contents list, double-click on the Basemap item to represent the NO2 variable with
symbols proportional to the variable value. A new Item contents window appears. In the Data
area, select Data / NO2 / NO2 variable (with the Background selection) as the proportional
variable. Enter NO2 data as the Legend Title. Leave the other parameters unchanged; by
default, black crosses will be displayed with a size proportional to the NO2 values. Click on
Display Current Item to check your parameters, then on Display to see all the previously
defined components of your graphic. Click on OK to close the Item contents panel.

l In the Items list, you can select any item and decide wether or not you want to display its legend.
Use the Up and Down arrows to modify the order of the items in the final display.

l To take off the white edge, click on the Display Box tab and select the Containing a set of items
mode. Choose the raster to define the display box correctly.

l Close the Contents window. Your final graphic window should be similar to the one displayed
hereafter.

(snap. 13.8-2)
Air quality 633

The * and [Not saved] symbol respectively indicate that some recent modifications have not been
stored in the Estimation for NO2 (Kriging) graphic template, and that this template has never
been saved. Click on Application / Store Page to save them. You can now close your window.

Create a second template Std for NO2 (Kriging) to display the kriging standard deviation. The
result should be similar to the one displayed hereafter.

(fig. 13.8-1)
634

13.9 Multivariate approach

A logarithmic transform of the emissions is applied in order to decrease the huge skewness of the
variable. This usually improves the correlation with NO2. You can now try to take advantage of the
knowledge of the Altitude and Emi_NOx variables and of the correlation between these different
variables.

The transformation is performed in the File / Calculator panel. In order to avoid some problems
with the emissions equal to zero, you add 1 to the emissions.

(snap. 13.9-1)
Air quality 635

13.9.1 Correlation between NO2 and the auxiliary variables

The first task consists in interpolating the auxiliary variables on the diffusive samples in order to
characterize the relationship between NO2 and the auxiliary variables. This interpolation is realized
in the Interpolate / Interpolation / Quick Interpolation panel. Click on the Input File button and
select the Altitude variable on the Grid. Click on the Output File button to select the target variable
in which results of the interpolation will be stored, you have to create a new variable called
Altitude in the NO2 file and activate the Background selection. Select the interpolation method to
be used: Bilinear Grid Interpolation and click on Run.

(snap. 13.9-2)

Do the same thing with the ln(Emi_NOx+1) and Pop99 variables.

Now that you have the auxiliary variables available at the diffusive samples locations, it is possible
to calculate the correlation between NO2 and the auxiliary variables. Selecting the three variables
in the Statistics / Exploratory Data Analysis and pushing the Statistics button produces the basic
statistics on the selected variables.

On the Scatter Diagram of Altitude versus NO2, you can observe a correlation coefficient of -0.72.
The correlation between NO2 and ln(Emi_NOx+1) is 0.757 (the linear regression line may be
added by switching ON the corresponding button in the Application / Graphic Specific Parameters
window.
636

(fig. 13.9-1)

13.9.2 Multi-linear regression

In order to synthesize the information brought by these two auxiliary variables, a multi-linear
regression is considered. You have to open the Statistics / Data Transformation / Multi-linear
Regression panel. Click on the Data File button to open the File Selector and specify the file then
the variables to be read or created. Select the NO2 variable as target variable, the Altitude and
ln(Emi_NOx+1) as explanatory variables and create the new variables NO2 regression and NO2
residus as regressed and residual variables (activate the Background selection). Switch Use a
Constant Term in the Regression and create a New File Name NO2 clicking on Regression
Parameter File to stored the result of the multilinear regression. This parameter file will be used to
applicate the same transformation on the grid variables using Statistics / Data Transformation /
Raw<->Multi-linear Transformation. Finally click on Run.

(snap. 13.9-3)
Air quality 637

The coefficients of the multi-linear regression are informed in the Message Window.
Regression Parameters:
======================
Explanatory Variable 1 = Altitude
Explanatory Variable 2 = ln(Emi_NOx+1)
Regressed Variable = None
Residual Variable = None
Constant Term = ON

Multi-linear regression
-----------------------
Equation for the target variable : NO2
(NB. coefficients apply for lengths are in their own unit)
----------------------------------------------------------------
|Estimated Coeff.|Signification| Std. Error | t-value | Pr(>|t|)|
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|Constant | 5.468 | X | 4.956 | 1.103 | 0.276|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|Altitude | -2.584e-02 | *** | 4.928e-03 | -5.244 |3.864e-06|
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|ln(Emi_NOx+1)| 2.883 | *** | 0.474 | 6.080 |2.195e-07|
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Signification codes based upon a Student test

probability of rejection:
'***' Pr(>|t|) < 0.001
'**' Pr(>|t|) < 0.01
'*' Pr(>|t|) < 0.05
'.' Pr(>|t|) < 0.1
'X' Pr(>|t|) < 1

Multiple R-squared = 0.733

Adjusted R-squared = 0.721
F-statistic = 63.156
p-value = 6.428e-14
AIC = 430.727
AIC Corrected = 431.261

Statistics calculated on 49 active samples

Raw data Mean = 22.918
Variance = 107.340
Regressed Mean = 22.918
Variance = 78.685
Residuals Mean = 4.350e-16
Variance = 28.655
638

13.9.3 Collocated cokriging

The NO2 regression variable will now be considered as the auxiliary variable. The correlation
between the NO2 and NO2 regression variables is 0.856.

rho=0.856

30
NO2 regression

20

10

0 10 20 30 40
NO2 (fig. 13.9-2)

For the sake of clarity, you define for the experimental variograms the same calculation parameters
as before (20 lags of 5km).
Air quality 639

NO2

67 55 34

61
150 44

70 42 67 43
Variogram : NO2

58
21
73 56 3430
100

46
54

31
50
22

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Distance (km)

NO2 regression & NO2 NO2 regression

34 61 34
150 150
Variogram : NO2 regression & NO2

61
67 44 Variogram : NO2 regression 30
67 44
55 56
30 70 34
100 5670 100
55
43 34 58
21 21
58 42
73 46 43
46 73 42
67

54 67
50 50
54
31 31
22 22

9 9
0 0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Distance (km) Distance (km)
(fig. 13.9-3)

Obviously, you recognize the same NO2 variogram as before. The NO2 regression variogram, as
well as the cross-variogram show the same number of pairs as they are built on the same 49 samples
where both variables are defined. You will save this new bivariate experimental variogram in a
Parameter File called NO2-Altitude+ln(Emi_NOx+1) for the fitting step.

The Statistics / Variogram Fitting procedure is started with NO2-Altitude+ln(Emi_NOx+1) as

experimental variogram and by defining a new file, also called NO2-Altitude+ln(Emi_NOx+1),
for storing the bivariate model. The Global window is used for fitting all the variables
simultaneously. The same model of variogram as before is used for the NO2 experimental
variogram. You choose the following parameters:

l Exponential with a range of 48 km

m a sill of 120 for the NO2 variogram,
m a sill of 95 for the cross-variogram,
m a sill of 90 for the NO2 regression variogram.

The dotted lines on the cross-variogram show the envelope of maximal correlation allowed from
the simple variograms. Click on Run (Save).
640

67 55 34

61
150 44

70 42 67 43
Variogram : NO2

58
21
73 56 3430
100

46
54

31
50
22

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Distance (km)

34
61 34
61 150
67 44
Variogram : NO2 regression & NO2

55
5670 30 Variogram : NO2 regression 30
100 43 34
58 21 67 44
42
46 73 67
56
70 34
54 100
55
31 58 21
22
46 43
9 73 42
0
67
50
54
31
22

9
-100 0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Distance (km) Distance (km) (fig. 13.9-4)

Note - To access the displayed variogram parameters of your choice, click on the Sill to be
displayed button.

Printing the model in the File / Parameters Files window allows a better understanding of the way
the basic structure has been used in order to fit simultaneously the three views, in the framework of
the linear coregionalization model, with their sills as the only degree of freedom.
Air quality 641

========== Parameter File Print ==========

---> Set name : NO2-Altitude+ln(NOx+1)
Directory name ........ Data
File name ............. NO2
Selection name ........ BACKGROUND
Number of variables ... 2
NO2
NO2 regression
Total number of samples in File 60
Number of samples in Selection 49

Model : Covariance part

=======================
Number of variables = 2
- Variable 1 : NO2
- Variable 2 : NO2 regression

Experimental Covariance Matrix:

__________________________________________
| | | |
| | NO2 | NO2 regression |
|----------------|--------|----------------|
| NO2 | 107.34 | 78.69 |
| NO2 regression | 78.69 | 78.69 |
|________________|________|________________|

Experimental Correlation Matrix:

________________________________________
| | | |
| | NO2 | NO2 regression |
|----------------|------|----------------|
| NO2 | 1.00 | 0.86 |
| NO2 regression | 0.86 | 1.00 |
|________________|______|________________|

Number of basic structures = 1

S1 : Exponential - Scale = 48000.00m

Variance-Covariance matrix :
Variable 1 Variable 2
Variable 1 120.0000 95.0000
Variable 2 95.0000 90.0000

Decomposition into factors (normalized eigen vectors) :

Variable 1 Variable 2
Factor 1 10.7832 9.2141
Factor 2 -1.9296 2.2582
Decomposition into eigen vectors (whose variance is eigen values) :
Variable 1 Variable 2 Eigen Val. Var. Perc.
Factor 1 0.7603 0.6496 201.1769 95.80
Factor 2 -0.6496 0.7603 8.8231 4.20

Model : Drift part

==================
Number of drift functions = 1
- Universality condition

========== End of Parameter File Print ==========

Advanced explanations about these coefficients are available in the Isatis Technical References,
that can be accessed from the On-Line documentation: chapter «Structure Identification of the
Intrinsic Case», paragraph «Printout of the Linear Model of Coregionalization».
642

The Interpolation / Estimation / (Co-)Kriging procedure is used again to perform the cokriging step
in order to estimate the NO2 from the auxiliary variable NO2 regression.

You have calculated the NO2 regression variable on the diffusive samples but not on the Grid
where the two variables Altitude and ln(Emi_NOx+1) are also informed. So, the first task consists
in calculating this variable on the Grid by the Statistics / Data Transformation / Raw<->Multi-
linear Transformation panel. Select the Regression Parameter File NO2, that has been created
from the Multi-linear Transformation application and associate the two explanatory variables
Altitude and ln(Emi_NOx+1) located in the Grid file. Then, create a new variable NO2
regression for the regressed variable. Clicking on Run, the coefficients of the regression are
applicated to the corresponding variables and the same transformation is computed.

(snap. 13.9-4)

Now, you can execute the cokriging operation. Select the two variables NO2 and NO2 regression
among the variables of the Input File (with Background selection), name the two variables
Estimation for NO2 (Cokriging) and Std for NO2 (Cokriging) to store the cokriging results and
do not forget to mention the NO2 regression of the Grid as Collocated Variable. Name the file
containing the bivariate model NO2-Altitude+ln(Emi_NOx+1). The neighborhood is unchanged.
Click on the Special Kriging Options button and select the option Collocated Cokriging. Be careful
that the Collocated Variable in Input and Output File is the same: NO2 regression. Click on Apply
and Run.
Air quality 643

(snap. 13.9-5)

(snap. 13.9-6)
644

13.9.4 Displaying the graphical results

Use the Estimation for NO2 (Kriging) and Std for NO2 (Kriging) display templates to easily
display the cokriging results: for each template, you just need to specify in the Edit window of your
grid item (Raster) that you want to display the Cokriging variables, instead of the previous
Kriging results.

(fig. 13.9-5)

The differences between Kriging and Cokriging are clearly visible on the display templates. On
the Cokriging map, the integration of the auxiliary variables points up the roads. This representation
is more realistic. The contribution of auxiliary variables improves the standard deviation map,
decreasing it on the grid meshes where no information was taken into account before.
Air quality 645

13.10 Cross-validation
The Statistics / Modeling / Cross-Validation procedure consists in considering each data point in
turn, removing it temporarily from the data set and using its neighboring information to predict (by
a kriging procedure) the value of the variable at its location. The estimation is compared to the true
value to produce the estimation error, possibly standardized by the standard deviation of the
estimation.

Click on the Data File button and select the NO2 variable with the Background selection as Target
Variable. Set on the Graphic Representations option. Select the Model button, the variogram model
called NO2 and Unique for the Neighborhood. This panel is very similar to the (Co-)Kriging panel.

(snap. 13.10-1)
646

By clicking on Run, the procedure finally produces a graphic page containing the four following
windows:

l the base map,

l the histogram of the standardized estimation errors,

l the scatter diagram of the true data versus the estimated values,

l the scatter diagram of the standardized estimation errors versus the estimated values.

A sample is arbitrarily considered as not robust as soon as its standardized estimation error is larger
than a given threshold in absolute value (2.5 for example which approximately corresponds to the
1% extreme values of a normal distribution).
Air quality 647

(fig. 13.10-1)
648

At the same time, the statistics on the estimation error and standardized error (mean and variance)
are printed out in the Message window.
======================================================================
| Cross-validation |
======================================================================
Data File Information:
Directory = Data
File = NO2
Selection = BACKGROUND
Variable(s) = NO2
Target File Information:
Directory = Data
File = NO2
Selection = BACKGROUND
Variable(s) = NO2
Seed File Information:
Directory = Data
File = NO2
Selection = BACKGROUND
Variable(s) = NO2
Type = POINT (60 points)
Model Name = NO2
Neighborhood Name = Unique - UNIQUE

Statistics based on 49 test data

Mean Variance
Error 0.53765 42.90661
Std. Error 0.05044 0.67488
Statistics based on 49 robust data
Mean Variance
Error 0.53765 42.90661
Std. Error 0.05044 0.67488

A data is robust when its Standardized Error lies between -2.500000 and 2.500000

Successfully processed = 49
CPU Time = 0:00:00 (0 sec.)
Elapsed Time = 0:00:00 (0 sec.)

The cross-validation has been carried out on the 49 samples of NO2. The mean error near to 0
proves that the unbiased condition of the kriging algorithm worked properly. The variance of the
estimation standardized error measures the ratio between the (square of the) experimental
estimation error and the kriging variance: this ratio should be close to 1, that is the case with a value
of 0.82.

In the second part, the same statistics are calculated based only on the robust points (in our case all
the samples are robust, so you obtain the same results).

If you compare these results to the ones obtained with the cokriging, the correlation between the
true values and the estimated values is better but three samples are not considered as robust points.
The mean and the variance of the standardized error are respectively near to 0 and 1.

It is difficult to decide between kriging and cokriging just with the results of the cross-validation
but the watching of the two maps is clearly in favor of the cokriging.
Air quality 649

13.11 Gaussian transformation

Kriging provides the best estimate of the variable at each grid node. By doing so, it does not
produce an image of the true variability of the phenomenon. Performing risk analysis usually
requires to compute quantities that have to be derived from a model representing the actual
variability. In this case, advanced geostatistical techniques such as simulations have to be used.

It is for instance the case here if you want to estimate the probability of NO2 to exceed a given
threshold. As in fact thresholding is not a linear operator applied to the concentration, applying the
threshold on the kriged result (which is a linear operator) can lead to an important bias. Simulation
techniques generally require a multi-gaussian framework: thus each variable has to be transformed
into a normal distribution beforehand and the simulation result must be back-transformed to the raw
distribution afterwards.

The aim of this paragraph consists in transforming the raw distribution of the NO2 variable into a
normal one.

Before that, you are going to compute declustering weights. The principle of the declustering
application is to assign a weight to each sample where a given variable is defined taking possible
clusters into account. The weight variable which is created here may be used later in the gaussian
transformation.

Click on the Tools / Declustering menu. Select in the Data File the NO2 variable with the
Background selection and create a new variable declustering weights. Specify the Moving
Window Dimensions, i.e. the dimensions in the X and Y directions of the moving window inside
which the number of samples will be counted. Generally, the average distance between the samples
is taken, in your case 15 km for X and Y. Click on Run.

(snap. 13.11-1)
650

Now, using the Statistics / Gaussian Anamorphosis Modeling procedure, you can fit and display
this anamorphosis function and transform the raw variable into a new gaussian variable NO2
Gauss.

Select the NO2 variable with the Background selection on Input data and the declustering
weights as Weights.

The Interactive Fitting button overlays the experimental anamorphosis with its model expanded in
terms of Hermite polynomials: this step function gives the correspondence between each one of the
sorted data (vertical axis) and the corresponding frequency quantile in the gaussian scale
(horizontal axis). A good correspondence between the experimental values and the model is
obtained by choosing an appropriate number of Hermite polynomials; by default Isatis suggests the
use of 30 polynomials, but you can modify this number and choose 50 polynomials.

Select the option Gaussian Transform and create a new variable NO2 Gauss on the Output data.
Three options of interpolation are available, we recommend the Empirical Inversion method for
this case. Save the anamorphosis clicking on the Point Anamorphosis button, name it NO2. Finally
click on Run.

(snap. 13.11-2)
Air quality 651

50

40

30
NO2

20

10

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
Gaussian values (fig. 13.11-1)

Using the Statistics / Exploratory Data Analysis on this new variable and switching Compute Using
the Weight Variable (click on the ... button on the right and enter declustering weights as the
Weight Variable), you can first compute its basic statistics: the mean is 0.00 and the variance is
1.00. You display the histogram of this variable between -3 and 3 using 18 classes and check that
the distribution is not exactly symmetric with a minimum of -2.24 and a maximum of 2.92. The
experimental variogram is very structured. The following one is computed using the same
calculation parameters as in the univariate case: 20 lags of 5 km.

(fig. 13.11-2)
652

You can control the bi-gaussian assumption on transformed data by computing the square root of
the ratio between variogram and madogram. Click on the Application / Calculation Parameters
menu of the Variogram window and select Sqrt of Variogram / Madogram on the Variographic
Option. This ratio has to be constant and around  (represented by the dotted line).

Sqrt of Variogram / Madogram : NO2 Gaus

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Distance (km) (fig. 13.11-3)

This experimental variogram is saved in a file called NO2 Gauss.

In the Statistics / Variogram Fitting, you fit a model constituted of a unique exponential structure
(range 48 km and sill 1.12) and save it in the model file called NO2 Gauss. You keep the same
range as before to remain coherent.

(fig. 13.11-4)
Air quality 653

13.12 Quantifying a local risk with Conditional

Expectation (CE)
The aim of this part is to calculate the probability for NO2 to exceed a given cutoff at a given point.
The method that we consider is the Conditional Expectation, it uses a normal score transformation
of the variable and its kriging.

You need to krige the gaussian variable NO2 Gauss using the NO2 Gauss model of variogram, a
Unique neighborhood and you have to create two new variables: Estimation for NO2 Gauss
(Kriging) and Std for NO2 Gauss (Kriging) as Output File.

(snap. 13.12-1)

After that, you can proceed with the calculation of probability. Select the Statistics / Statistics /
Probability from Conditional Expectation menu and click on the Data File button to open a File
Selector. Choose the Estimation for NO2 Gauss (Kriging) as Gaussian Kriged Variable, Std for
NO2 Gauss (Kriging) for the second variable and create a new variable Probability 40µg/m3
(CE) for the last variable. This Probability macro variable will store the different probabilities to be
654

above given cutoffs. Each alphanumerical index of the Macro Variable will correspond to the
different cutoffs. In our case, there will be only one cutoff.

Press the Indicator Definition button to define the cutoff in the raw space, we have chosen a cutoff
of 40 µg/m3. Click on Apply next Close.

Check Perform a Gaussian Back Transformation and click on Anamorphosis to define the
transformation (NO2) which has been used to transform the raw data in the gaussian space before
kriging. To finish, click on Run.

(snap. 13.12-2)

(snap. 13.12-3)

The map corresponding to the probability to exceed the sanitary threshold of 40 µg/m3 is displayed
hereafter. A new color scale called Probability is created with irregular bounds in order to show up
the points where the probability is low.
Air quality 655

(fig. 13.12-1)
656

13.13 NO2 univariate simulations

An other way to calculate the probability to exceed a threshold is based on the simulations and
particularly the conditional simulations. Simulations will be compulsory to compute global
statistics, such as the average exposed population.

A conditional simulation corresponds to a grid of values having a normal distribution and honoring
the model. Moreover it honors the data points as it uses a conditioning step based on kriging which
requires the definition of a neighborhood. So the simulations also need the gaussian transformation
and a model of variogram based on this normal variable.

To compute these simulations, you are going to use the turning bands method (Interpolate /
Conditional Simulations / Turning Bands). You use the same Unique neighborhood as in the
kriging step. The additional parameters consist in:

l the name of the macro variable: each simulation is stored in this macro variable with an index
attached,

l the number of simulations: 200 in this exercise,

l the starting index for numbering the simulations: 1 in this exercise,

l the Gaussian back transformation is performed using the anamorphosis function: NO2. In a first
run, this anamorphosis will be disabled in order to study the gaussian simulations,

l the seed used for the random number generator: 423141 by default. This seed allows you to
perform lots of simulations in several steps: each step will be different from the previous one if
the seed is modified.

The final parameters are specific to the simulation technique. When using the Turning Band
method, you simply need to specify the number of bands: a rule of thumb is to enter a number much
larger than the count of rows or columns in the grid, and smaller than the total number of grid
nodes; 1000 bands are chosen in our exercise.

You can verify on some simulations in the gaussian space that the histogram is really gaussian and
the experimental variogram respects the structure of the model NO2 Gauss particularly at small
scale. After this «Quality Control», you can enable the Gaussian back transformation NO2.
Air quality 657

Nb Samples: 8302 Nb Samples: 8302

Minimum: -3.19 Minimum: -3.32
0.15 0.125
Maximum: 3.78 Maximum: 3.67
Mean: -0.03 Mean: -0.06
Std. Dev.: 0.97 Std. Dev.: 1.03

0.100

Frequencies

Frequencies
0.10

0.075

0.050
0.05

0.025

0.00 0.000
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
Simulations NO2 Gauss[00050] Simulations NO2 Gauss[00150]

1.25

Variogram : Simulations NO2 Gauss[00150

Variogram : Simulations NO2 Gauss[00050

1.25

1.00

1.00

0.75

0.75

0.50
0.50

0.25
0.25

0.00 0.00
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Distance (km) Distance (km)
(fig. 13.13-1)
658

(snap. 13.13-1)

The results consist in 200 realizations stored in one Simulations NO2 Macro Variable in the Grid.
The clear differences between several realizations are illustrated on the next graphic.
Air quality 659

(fig. 13.13-2)
660

13.14 NO2 multivariate simulations

As in the kriging, you can integrate auxiliary variables in simulations. The gaussian hypothesis
requires a new multi-linear regression of auxiliary variables Altitude and ln(Emi_NOx+1) on the
NO2 Gauss variable. The new auxiliary variable is stored in NO2 Gauss regression and the
coefficients of this new regression stored in a new Regression Parameter File NO2 Gauss are also
informed in the Message window:
Regression Parameters:
======================
Explanatory Variable 1 = Altitude
Explanatory Variable 2 = ln(Emi_NOx+1)
Regressed Variable = NO2 Gauss regression
Residual Variable = None
Constant Term = ON

Multi-linear regression
-----------------------
Equation for the target variable : NO2 Gauss
(NB. coefficients apply for lengths are in their own unit)
-------------------------------------------------------------
|Estimated Coeff.|Signification|Std. Error|t-value| Pr(>|t|) |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|Constant | -1.338 | * | 0.531 |-2.521 |1.525e-02 |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|Altitude | -2.918e-03 | *** |5.278e-04 |-5.529 |1.462e-06 |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|ln(Emi_NOx+1)| 0.288 | *** |5.079e-02 | 5.669 |9.064e-07 |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Signification codes based upon a Student test

probability of rejection:
'***' Pr(>|t|) < 0.001
'**' Pr(>|t|) < 0.01
'*' Pr(>|t|) < 0.05
'.' Pr(>|t|) < 0.1
'X' Pr(>|t|) < 1

Multiple R-squared = 0.728

Adjusted R-squared = 0.716
F-statistic = 61.644
p-value = 9.659e-14
AIC = -6.313e+00
AIC Corrected = -5.780e+00

Statistics calculated on 49 active samples

Raw data Mean = 0.310
Variance = 1.210
Regressed Mean = 0.310
Variance = 0.881
Residuals Mean = -9.969e-17
Variance = 0.329

Calculate the NO2 Gauss regression variable on the Grid in the Statistics / Data Transformation /
Raw<->Multi-linear Transformation panel.
Air quality 661

(snap. 13.14-1)

After that, you can compute the three experimental variograms (using the declustering weights
variable). Save them as NO2 Gauss-Altitude+ln(Emi_NOx+1) and fit a model. You choose the
following parameters:

l exponential with a range of 48 km with:

m a sill of 1.12 for the NO2 Gauss variogram,
m a sill of 1.00 for the cross variogram,
m a sill of 1.10 for the NO2 Gauss regression variogram.

34
1.5
42
7058 43 34
Variogram : NO2 Gauss

6761 21
56 55
1.0 73 30
67 44

46
31 54

0.5
22
9

0.0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Distance (km)

34
34
Variogram : NO2 Gauss regression & NO2

61
Variogram : NO2 Gauss regression

61
7058 30
56 42 2143 34 1.5 30
1
67 55 44
46 73 67 7058 21
31
54 56 55
34
22 67
1.0
42 43 44
46 67
9 73
0
31
22 54
0.5

-1 9
0.0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Distance (km) Distance (km) (fig. 13.14-1)
662

You are now able to perform the collocated co-simulations using the turning bands technique. The
differences in relation to the univariate simulations are that the multivariate case requires two
variables NO2 Gauss and NO2 Gauss regression (with the Background selection) on Input File.
Click on the Output File button, create two new variables Simulations NO2 (multivariate case)
and Simulations NO2 Gauss regression irrelevant but required by the algorithm (multivariate
case) on the Grid (Alsace selection activated) and select the NO2 Gauss regression as Collocated
Variable.

Enter NO2 Gauss-Altitude+ln(Emi_NOx+1) as variogram model and a Unique neighborhood.

Click on the Special Option button and switch the Collocated Cokriging option (verify that the
collocated variable is the same, NO2 Gauss regression, in Input and Output File). Enable the
Gaussian Back Transformation and define the NO2 Anamorphosis for each variable. Do not change
the other parameters like the number of simulations and the number of turning bands. Finally click
on Run.
Air quality 663

(snap. 13.14-2)

(snap. 13.14-3)
664

(snap. 13.14-4)
Air quality 665

13.15 Simulation post-processing

The Tools / Simulation Post Processing panel provides a procedure for the post processing of a
macro variable. Considering the 200 univariate simulations, you ask the procedure to perform
sequentially the following tasks:

l calculation of the mean of the 200 simulations,

l determination of the cutoff map giving the probability that NO2 exceeds 40 µg/m3.

(snap. 13.15-1)

(snap. 13.15-2)
666

(snap. 13.15-3)

The map corresponding to the mean of the 200 simulations is displayed with the same color scale as
for each of the estimated maps and the standard deviation associated. The mean of a large number
of simulations converges toward kriging.

(fig. 13.15-1)
Air quality 667

(fig. 13.15-2)

The following graphic represents the probability that the NO2 concentrations exceed a sanitary
threshold of 40 µg/m3 calculated by simulations. This map is very similar to the probability map
obtained by conditional expectation. With an infinity of simulations, the map would be exactly the
same.
668

(fig. 13.15-3)

The following graphics represent the mean of simulations and the probability to exceed 40 µg/m3
calculated in the multivariate case, i.e. using the Simulations NO2 (multivariate case) macro
variable in the Tools / Simulations Post Processing panel with the same parameters as before.

The simulation mean has many similarities with the cokriging map. Regarding the probability map,
it presents some differences with the probability map obtained by univariate simulations, specially
on the South where the probability is lower (quasi null) than for the first graphic and on the East
center where the main area exposed to a risk of exceed 40 µg/m3 is more limited and shows up a
road axis.The integration of auxiliary variables in simulations leads to a map of probability more
realistic.
Air quality 669

(fig. 13.15-4)

(fig. 13.15-5)
670

13.16 Estimating population exposure

The first task consists in initializing a new «population exposure» macro variable. For that, use the
Tools / Create Special Variable panel. Select the Variable Type to be created in the list: a Macro
Variable 32 bits and click on the Data File button to define the name of this new variable:
Population exposure. Click Variable Unit to select the unit: Float() and Editing Format to define
the format: Integer(10,0). Finally, specify the Number of Macro Variable Indices, it will be the same
as the number of simulations, i.e. 200. Click on Run.

(snap. 13.16-1)

In the File / Calculator panel, for each simulation you are going to calculate the population
potentially exposed to NO2 concentrations higher than 40 µg/m3. You have to click on the Data
File button to select Pop99 as v1 and Simulations NO2 (multivariate case) and Population
exposure as m1 and m2 (macro variables).

Enter in the window Transformation the operation that will be applied on the variables. For each
simulation and each mesh, the NO2 simulated concentration is compared to the threshold of 40 µg/
m3. If this value is exceeded, the number of inhabitants informed in the Pop99 variable will be
stored, else the number of inhabitants exposed will be zero. As a consequence, the transformation
is: m2=ifelse(m1>40,v1,0).
Air quality 671

(snap. 13.16-2)

The Tools / Simulation Post-processing is finally used to estimate the population exposed to NO2
concentrations higher than 40 µg/m3 from the Population exposure macro variable. In order to run
this operation, switch on Risk Curves and click on the Edit button. You are only interested by the
Accumulations. For each realization (each index of the macro variable), the program calculates the
sum of all the values of the variable which are greater or equal to the cutoff, i.e. in our case the
program calculates the total sum of inhabitants (so choose a cutoff of 0, the selection of the
inhabitants living in a area exposed to more than 40 µg/m3 is considered in the preceding step).
This sum is then multiplied by the unit surface of a cell equal to: 1000 m x 1000 m = 1000000 m²;
as you are interested in the number of inhabitants (inhab), you need to divide by this figure
1000000 m². Switch on Draw Risk Curve on Accumulations to draw the risk curves on
accumulations in a separate graphic and Print Statistics to print the accumulations of the target
variable for each simulation.
672

(snap. 13.16-3)
Air quality 673

(snap. 13.16-4)
674

(fig. 13.16-1)
Statistics for Simulation Post Processing
=========================================
Target Variable : Macro variable = Population exposure[xxxxx] [count=200]
Cutoff = 0.00

Number of outcomes = 200

The 19716 values are processed using 1 buffers of 19716 data each
Cell dimension along X = 1000.00m
Cell dimension along Y = 1000.00m

Rank Macro Frequency Accumulation Surface

1 1 0.50 140173inhab 8302.00km2
2 2 1.00 111181inhab 8302.00km2
3 3 1.50 114081inhab 8302.00km2
.../...
198 198 99.00 93011.00inhab 8302.00km2
199 199 99.50 108996.00inhab 8302.00km2
200 200 100.00 150109.00inhab 8302.00km2

Statistics on Accumulation Risk Curve

=====================================
Smallest = 63214.00inhab
Largest = 201496.00inhab
Mean = 112426.59inhab
St. dev. = 25451.57inhab

Statistics on Surface Risk Curve

===============================
Smallest = 8302.00km2
Largest = 8302.00km2
Mean = 8302.00km2
St. dev. = 0.00km2

Inputs/Outputs Summary
======================
Input Macro :
- Directory Name : Data
- File Name : Grid
- Selection Name : Alsace
- Variable Name : Population exposure[xxxxx]
Air quality 675

Quantiles on Accumulation Risk Curves

=====================================
Q5.00 = 157091.00inhab
Q50.00 = 110937.00inhab
Q95.00 = 74224.50inhab

Quantiles on Accumulation Risk Curves (nearest simulation values)

=================================================================
P5.00 = 157580.00inhab
P50.00 = 111007.00inhab
P95.00 = 74521.00inhab

The number of inhabitants exposed to NO2 concentrations higher than 40 µg/m3 is between 63214
and 201496 with a mean of 112427.