University of Santo Tomas

Senior High School

Second Quarter, S.Y. 2018-2019

Performance Task: Population Projection

Topic: Exponential Functions

Content Standard: The learner demonstrates key concepts of exponential functions.
Performance Standard: The learner is able to apply the concepts of exponential functions to formulate and solve
real-life problems with precision and accuracy.

PART I(50 points)

Suppose you form part of a team of three (3) that is tasked by the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB)
to provide a report regarding the growth of a certain region in the Philippines. As such, the following are the contents
required for the aforementioned report:
1. A brief introduction of the region assigned to your group containing pertinent information (may include, but not
limited to, the following: geographical description, provinces, customs, culture, and etc).
2. Using the given data of your assigned region, follow the algorithm below to create a mathematical model which
describes the population growth for the region you are required to report on.

ALGORITHM

Step 1 Compute the difference (D) in population size (of your assigned region) during the following year
intervals: 1980-1990; 1990-2000; and 2000-2010.

Step 2 Use the formula below to get the rate of growth (R) of each year interval. Let R1980−1990 be the
rate of growth of the 1980-1990 year interval. Its formula is defined as:
D1980−1990
R1980−1990 =
P1980

(express the results in decimal form; FOUR DECIMAL PLACES)

Step 3 Find the average (arithmetic mean) of the three rates then divide it by 10. The result will serve
as the annual relative growth r of the region’s population. Express this in FOUR DECIMAL
PLACES.  
R1980−1990 + R1990−2000 + R2000−2010
3
r=
10

Step 4 Let t = 0 be year 1980, prepare the model for the population growth of your assigned region using
the continuous exponential model
P (t) = P0 ert

Step 5 Use the population model to estimate the population size of the region in years 2019, 2020, 2025,
2030, and 2040. ROUND DOWN the answers to the nearest digit.

Step 6 Using the same model, estimate the year in which the population will reach the 30 and 50 million
milestone. ROUND UP the answers to the nearest digit.

3. Using Microsoft Excel or Apple Numbers, make a line graph of your assigned region’s population growth showing
the years 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010, 2018, 2019, and 2020. Label the x-axis as ”YEAR” and the y-axis as ”POPU-
LATION OF REGION”. (Note: you are free to choose any line graph design for as long as pertinent labels
are placed on the graph.)
 University of Santo Tomas
Senior High School
Second Quarter, S.Y. 2018-2019

Performance Task: Population Projection

PART II (10 points)

Construct two (2) exponential models which follows the form f (x) = abx ; f (t) = P0 (1 + r)t ; f (t) = P0 ert using graphing
calculators such as Desmos/Microsoft Excel or, alternatively, through other manual methods/ algorithms used for
generating exponential models.

Furthermore, answer the following: Based on the models you have previously generated, do you think that the algorithm
described in Part I gave a reasonable result? Also, given the latest happenings on your assigned region, which among
the models do you think would most likely give a good estimate of the region’s population size?
 University of Santo Tomas
Senior High School
Second Quarter, S.Y. 2018-2019

Performance Task: Population Projection

INSTRUCTIONS ABOUT THE FINAL OUTPUT

1. The first page of your submitted output must be the rubric page that is found on this file. All class number,
names, and section of the group must be written on the spaces provided.
2. The second page must be the introduction page of your group’s assigned region. It must not exceed 1 page. It
will be your group’s choice to have this hand- or type-written. Be creative in presenting this part of the report!
3. The third page must be the answer sheet for the algorithm that you are required to follow. Write your answers on
the answer sheet provided. Do not edit the any part/do not make your own version of the template. Write your
answers legibly on the spaces provided.

4. The fourth page must contain your line graph.

5. The fifth page are your answers for Part II. Follow the heading for this page as written in the last page of this file.
You have the freedom on how you would present this. Obviously, it must not exceed 1 page.
6. All pages follow the US Letter paper size (8.5 by 11 inches).
 University of Santo Tomas
Senior High School
Second Quarter, S.Y. 2018-2019

Performance Task: Population Projection

RUBRIC

Names: Yr & Sec:

Group No:
Region:
 University of Santo Tomas
Senior High School
Second Quarter, S.Y. 2018-2019

Performance Task: Population Projection

PART I ANSWER SHEET: Algorithm for Population Growth Model

Step 1 Compute the difference (D) in population size (of your assigned region) during the following year
intervals: 1980-1990; 1990-2000; and 2000-2010.

Step 2 R1980−1990 =

R1990−2000 =

R2000−2010 =

Step 3 Annual Relative Growth (r)=

Step 4 Growth Model P (t) = P0 ert

Step 5 Estimate Population in 2019 =

Estimate Population in 2020 =

 University of Santo Tomas
Senior High School
Second Quarter, S.Y. 2018-2019

Performance Task: Population Projection

PART I ANSWER SHEET: Algorithm for Population Growth Model

Step 5 Estimate Population in 2025 =

Estimate Population in 2030 =

Estimate Population in 2040 =

Step 6 Estimated year that population reaches 30 million =

Estimated year that population reaches 50 million =