PROYECTO

PARA LA SECCIÓN 3.1

¿Invariablemente el SIDA es
una enfermedad fatal?
por Ivan Kramer
(VWHHQVD\RDERUGDUi\UHVSRQGHUiDODVLJXLHQWHSUHJXQWD¢(OVtQGURPHGHLQPXQRGH¿FLHQ-
FLDDGTXLULGD6,'$TXHHVODHWDSD¿QDOGHODLQIHFFLyQSRUHOYLUXVGHLQPXQRGH¿FLHQFLD
KXPDQD9,+HVLQYDULDEOHPHQWHXQDHQIHUPHGDGIDWDO"
&RPRRWURVYLUXVHO9,+QRWLHQHQLQJ~QPHWDEROLVPR\QRSXHGHUHSURGXFLUVHIXHUD
GHXQDFpOXODYLYD/DLQIRUPDFLyQJHQpWLFDGHOYLUXVHVWiFRQWHQLGDHQGRVKHEUDVLGpQWLFDV
GHO$513DUDUHSURGXFLUVHHO9,+GHEHXWLOL]DUHODSDUDWRUHSURGXFWLYRGHODFpOXODLQ-
YDGLpQGRODHLQIHFWiQGRODSDUDSURGXFLUFRSLDVH[DFWDVGHO$51YLUDO8QDYH]TXHSHQHWUD
HQXQDFpOXODHO9,+WUDQVFULEHVX$51HQHO$'1PHGLDQWHXQD HQ]LPDWUDQVFULSWDVD
&pOXODLQIHFWDGDFRQ9,+ LQYHUVDFRQWHQLGDHQHOYLUXV(O$'1GHGREOHFDGHQDYLUDOPLJUDGHQWURGHOQ~FOHRGHOD
FpOXODLQYDGLGD\VHLQVHUWDHQHOJHQRPDGHODFpOXODFRQODD\XGDGHRWUDHQ]LPDYLUDOLQ-
WHJUDVD(QWRQFHVHO$'1YLUDO\HO$'1GHODFpOXODLQYDGLGDVHLQWHJUDQ\ODFpOXODHVWi
LQIHFWDGD&XDQGRVHHVWLPXODDODFpOXODLQIHFWDGDSDUDUHSURGXFLUVHVHWUDQVFULEHHO$'1
SURYLUDOHQHO$'1YLUDO\VHVLQWHWL]DQQXHYDVSDUWtFXODVYLUDOHV3XHVWRTXHORVPHGLFD-
PHQWRVDQWLUUHWURYLUDOHVFRPROD]LGRYXGLQDLQKLEHQODHQ]LPDGHO9,+GHODWUDQVFULSWDVD
LQYHUVD\GHWLHQHQODVtQWHVLVGHFDGHQD$'1SURYLUDOHQHOODERUDWRULRHVWRVIiUPDFRVTXH
JHQHUDOPHQWHVHDGPLQLVWUDQHQFRPELQDFLyQUHWUDVDQODSURJUHVLyQGHO6,'$HQDTXHOODV
SHUVRQDVTXHHVWiQLQIHFWDGDVFRQHO9,+DQ¿WULRQHV
/RTXHKDFHWDQSHOLJURVDDODLQIHFFLyQSRU9,+HVHOKHFKRGHTXHGHELOLWDIDWDOPHQWH
DOVLVWHPDLQPXQHGHXQDQ¿WULyQXQLHQGRDODPROpFXOD&'HQODVXSHU¿FLHGHODVFpOXODV
YLWDOHVSDUDODGHIHQVDFRQWUDODHQIHUPHGDGLQFOX\HQGRODVFpOXODV7DX[LOLDUHV\XQDVXE-
SREODFLyQGHFpOXODVDVHVLQDVQDWXUDOHV6HSRGUtDGHFLUTXHODVFpOXODV7DX[LOLDUHVFpOXODV
7&'RFpOXODV7VRQODVFpOXODVPiVLPSRUWDQWHVGHOVLVWHPDLQPXQROyJLFR\DTXH
RUJDQL]DQODGHIHQVDGHOFXHUSRFRQWUDORVDQWtJHQRV(OPRGHODGRVXJLHUHTXHODLQIHFFLyQ
SRU9,+GHODVFpOXODVDVHVLQDVQDWXUDOHVKDFHTXHVHDimposible mediante una terapia an-
tirretroviral moderna eliminar el virus [1@$GHPiVGHODPROpFXOD&'XQYLULyQQHFHVLWD
SRUORPHQRVGHXQSXxDGRGHPROpFXODVFRUUHFHSWRUDVSRUHMHPSOR&&5\&;&5HQ
ODVXSHU¿FLHGHODFpOXODREMHWLYRSDUDSRGHUXQLUVHDpVWDSHQHWUDUHQVXPHPEUDQDHLQ-
IHFWDUOD'HKHFKRDOUHGHGRUGHOGHORVFDXFiVLFRVFDUHFHQGHPROpFXODVFRUUHFHSWRUDV
\SRUORWDQWRVRQWRWDOPHQWHinmunesDLQIHFWDUVHGH9,+
8QDYH]HVWDEOHFLGDODLQIHFFLyQODHQIHUPHGDGHQWUDHQODHWDSDGHLQIHFFLyQDJXGD
GXUDQWHXQDVVHPDQDVVHJXLGDVSRUXQSHULRGRGHLQFXEDFLyQ£TXHSXHGHGXUDUGRVGpFDGDV
R PiV$XQTXHODGHQVLGDGGHFpOXODV7DX[LOLDUHVGHXQ DQ¿WULyQFDPELDFXDVLHVWiWLFD-
PHQWHGXUDQWHHOSHULRGRGHLQFXEDFLyQOLWHUDOPHQWHPLOHVGHPLOORQHVGHFpOXODV7LQIHF-
WDGDV\SDUWtFXODVGH9,+VRQGHVWUXLGDV\UHHPSOD]DGDVGLDULDPHQWH(VWRHVFODUDPHQWH
XQDJXHUUDGHGHVJDVWHHQODFXDOLQHYLWDEOHPHQWHSLHUGHHOVLVWHPDLQPXQROyJLFR
8QPRGHORGHDQiOLVLVGHODGLQiPLFDHVHQFLDOTXHRFXUUHGXUDQWHHOperiodo de in-
cubación TXH LQHYLWDEOHPHQWH FDXVD 6,'$ HV HO VLJXLHQWH >1@<D TXH HO9,+ PXWD FRQ
UDSLGH]VXFDSDFLGDGSDUDLQIHFWDUDODVFpOXODV7HQFRQWDFWRVXLQIHFWLYLGDG¿QDOPHQWH
DXPHQWD\ODVFpOXODVGHWLSR7VHLQIHFWDQ$VtHOVLVWHPDLQPXQROyJLFRGHEHDXPHQWDUOD
WDVDGHGHVWUXFFLyQGHODVFpOXODV7LQIHFWDGDVDOLJXDOTXHFRPRODWDVDGHSURGXFFLyQGH
RWUDVQXHYDVFpOXODVVDQDVSDUDUHHPSOD]DUORV6LQHPEDUJROOHJDXQSXQWRHQTXHFXDQGR
ODWDVDGHSURGXFFLyQGHODVFpOXODV7DOFDQ]DVXOtPLWHPi[LPRSRVLEOH\FXDOTXLHUDX-
PHQWRGHODLQIHFWLYLGDGGHO9,+GHEHSURYRFDUQHFHVDULDPHQWHXQDFDtGDHQODGHQVLGDG
GH7ORFXDOFRQGXFHDO6,'$6RUSUHQGHQWHPHQWHDOUHGHGRUGHOGHORVDQ¿WULRQHVQR
PXHVWUDQVLJQRVGHGHWHULRURGHOVLVWHPDLQPXQROyJLFRGXUDQWHORVGLH]SULPHURVDxRVGHOD
LQIHFFLyQ2ULJLQDOPHQWHVHSHQVDEDTXHHVWRVDQ¿WULRQHVOODPDGRVno progresores a largo

P-1
P-2 l PROYECTO 3.1 ¿INVARIABLEMENTE EL SIDA ES UNA ENFERMEDAD FATAL?

plazoHUDQSRVLEOHPHQWHLQPXQHVDGHVDUUROODUHO6,'$SHURODHYLGHQFLDGHOPRGHODGR
VXJLHUHTXH¿QDOPHQWHHVWRVDQ¿WULRQHVORGHVDUUROODUiQ>1@
(Q PiV GHO  GH ORV DQ¿WULRQHV HO VLVWHPD LQPXQROyJLFR SLHUGH JUDGXDOPHQWH VX
ODUJDEDWDOODFRQHOYLUXV/DGHQVLGDGGHFpOXODV7HQODVDQJUHSHULIpULFDGHORVDQ¿WULRQHV
FRPLHQ]DDGLVPLQXLUGHVGHVXQLYHOQRUPDOHQWUH\FpOXODVPP3DFHURORTXH
LQGLFDHO¿QDOGHOSHULRGRGHLQFXEDFLyQ(ODQ¿WULyQOOHJDDODHWDSDGHODLQIHFFLyQGH6,'$
ya seaFXDQGRXQDGHODVPiVGHYHLQWHLQIHFFLRQHVRSRUWXQLVWDVFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVGHO6,'$VH
GHVDUUROOD6,'$FOtQLFRRFXDQGRODGHQVLGDGGHFpOXODV7FDHSRUGHEDMRGHFpOXODVPP3
XQDGH¿QLFLyQDGLFLRQDOGHO6,'$SURPXOJDGDSRUHO&'&HQ/DLQIHFFLyQGHO9,+KD
OOHJDGRDVXHWDSDSRWHQFLDOPHQWHIDWDO
3DUDPRGHODUODVXSHUYLYHQFLDGHO6,'$HOWLHPSRtHQHOFXDOXQDQ¿WULyQGHVDUUROOD
6,'$VHUiGHQRWDGDSRUt ⫽8QPRGHORGHVXSHUYLYHQFLDSRVLEOHSDUDXQDFRKRUWHGH
SDFLHQWHVFRQ6,'$SRVWXODTXHHO6,'$QRHVXQDFRQGLFLyQIDWDOSDUDXQDIUDFFLyQGHOD
FRKRUWHGHQRWDGDSRUSiTXHVHOODPDUiDTXtODfracción inmortal3DUDODSDUWHUHVWDQWHGH
ODFRKRUWHODSUREDELOLGDGGHPRULUSRUXQLGDGGHWLHPSRDOWLHPSRtVHVXSRQHXQDFRQVWDQWH
kGRQGHSRUVXSXHVWRkVHUiSRVLWLYD3RUORWDQWRODIUDFFLyQGHVXSHUYLYHQFLDStSDUD
HVWHPRGHORHVXQDVROXFLyQGHODHFXDFLyQGLIHUHQFLDOGHSULPHURUGHQOLQHDO
dS(t)
k[S(t) Si]  
dt
8VDQGRHOPpWRGRGHOIDFWRUGHLQWHJUDFLyQTXHVHDQDOL]DHQODVHFFLyQYHPRVTXH
ODVROXFLyQGHODHFXDFLyQGHODIUDFFLyQGHVXSHUYLYHQFLDHVWiGDGDSRU
kt  
S(t) Si [1 Si]e
En lugar del parámetro kTXHDSDUHFHHQODHFXDFLyQVHSXHGHQGH¿QLUGRVQXHYRV
SDUiPHWURVSDUDXQDQ¿WULyQSDUDHOFXDOHO6,'$HVIDWDOHOtiempo promedio de superviven-
cia Tprom dado por Tprom ⫽ k⫺ y la supervivencia de vida media Tdada por T ⫽OQ冫k
/DVXSHUYLYHQFLDGHYLGDPHGLDGH¿QLGDFRPRODPLWDGGHWLHPSRUHTXHULGRSDUDHOFRKRUWH
DPRULUHVWRWDOPHQWHDQiORJDDODYLGDHQGHFDLPLHQWRUDGLDFWLYRQXFOHDU9HDHOSUREOHPD
HQHOHMHUFLFLR(QWpUPLQRVGHHVWRVSDUiPHWURVODGHSHQGHQFLDFRPSOHWDGHOWLHPSR
HQVHSXHGHHVFULELUFRPR
kt t Tprom t T1 2  
e e 2
8WLOL]DQGRXQSURJUDPDGHPtQLPRVFXDGUDGRVSDUDDMXVWDUODIXQFLyQGHODIUDFFLyQGH
VXSHUYLYHQFLDHQDORVGDWRVUHDOHVGHVXSHUYLYHQFLDSDUDORVKDELWDQWHVGH0DU\ODQG
TXHGHVDUUROODURQ6,'$HQVHREWLHQHHOYDORUGHODIUDFFLyQLQPRUWDOGHSi ⫽\
XQYDORUGHYLGDPHGLDGHVXSHUYLYHQFLDGHT ⫽DxRVLHQGRHOWLHPSRSURPHGLR
GHVXSHUYLYHQFLDTprom ⫽DxRV>2@9HDOD¿JXUDO3RUORWDQWRVyORFHUFDGHOGH
ODVSHUVRQDVGH0DU\ODQGTXHGHVDUUROODURQ6,'$HQVREUHYLYLHURQWUHVDxRVFRQHVWD
FRQGLFLyQ/DFXUYDGHVXSHUYLYHQFLDGHO6,'$GHHQ0DU\ODQGHVSUiFWLFDPHQWHLGpQ-
WLFDDODVGH\(OSULPHUIiUPDFRDQWLUUHWURYLUDOTXHVHHQFRQWUyHIHFWLYRFRQWUD
HO9,+IXHOD]LGRYXGLQDDQWHULRUPHQWHFRQRFLGDFRPR$=73XHVWRTXHOD]LGRYXGLQD
QRHUDFRQRFLGDSRUWHQHUXQLPSDFWRHQODLQIHFFLyQSRUHO9,+DQWHVGH\QRHUDXQD
WHUDSLDFRP~QDQWHVGHHVUD]RQDEOHFRQFOXLUTXHODVXSHUYLYHQFLDGHORVSDFLHQWHV
GH 6,'$ GH 0DU\ODQG GH  QR IXH VLJQL¿FDWLYDPHQWH LQÀXHQFLDGD SRU OD WHUDSLD FRQ
]LGRYXGLQD
(OYDORUSHTXHxRSHURGLVWLQWRGHFHURGHODIUDFFLyQLQPRUWDOSi obtenido de los datos
GH0DU\ODQGVHGHEHSUREDEOHPHQWHDOPpWRGRTXH0DU\ODQG\RWURVHVWDGRVXVDQSDUDGH-
WHUPLQDUODVXSHUYLYHQFLDGHVXVFLXGDGDQRV/RVUHVLGHQWHVFRQ6,'$TXHFDPELDURQVX
QRPEUH\OXHJRPXULHURQRTXLHQHVPXULHURQHQHOH[WUDQMHURSRGUtDQKDEHUVLGRFRQWDGRV
FRPRYLYRVSRUHO'HSDUWDPHQWRGH6DOXGH+LJLHQH0HQWDOGH0DU\ODQG3RUORWDQWR
HOYDORUGHODIUDFFLyQLQPRUWDOGHSi ⫽REWHQLGRDSDUWLUGHORVGDWRVGH
0DU\ODQGHVWiFODUDPHQWHHQHOOtPLWHVXSHULRUGHVXYHUGDGHURYDORUTXHSUREDEOHPHQWH
VHDFHUR
 PROYECTO 3.1 ¿INVARIABLEMENTE EL SIDA ES UNA ENFERMEDAD FATAL? l P-3

1.0 Fracción de supervivencia

Ajuste del modelo de dos parámetros

0.8

0.6

S(t)
0.4

0.2

0
_16 16 48 80 112 144 176 208 240 272
Tiempo de supervivencia t(w)
FIGURA 1 &XUYDGHODIUDFFLyQGHVXSHUYLYHQFLDSt
(Q(DVWHUEURRN\FRODERUDGRUHVSXEOLFDURQGDWRVGHWDOODGRVDFHUFDGHODVXSHU-
YLYHQFLDGHDQ¿WULRQHVLQIHFWDGRVTXHIXHURQWUDWDGRVFRQ]LGRYXGLQD\FX\DVGHQ-
VLGDGHVFHOXODUHV7FD\HURQSRUGHEDMRGHORVYDORUHVQRUPDOHV>3@&RPRVXVGHQVLGDGHV
GHFpOXODV7FDHQDFHURHVWDVSHUVRQDVGHVDUUROODQHO6,'$FOtQLFR\HPSLH]DQDPRULU
/RVVREUHYLYLHQWHVPiVORQJHYRVGHHVWDHQIHUPHGDGYLYHQSDUDYHUTXHVXVGHQVLGDGHV7
VRQLQIHULRUHVDFpOXODVPP36LHOWLHPSRt ⫽HVUHGH¿QLGRORTXHVLJQL¿FDHOPRPHQ-
WRHQTXHODGHQVLGDGFHOXODU7GHXQDQ¿WULyQFDHSRUGHEDMRGHFpOXODVPP3HQWRQFHV
ODVXSHUYLYHQFLDGHHVWRVDQ¿WULRQHVIXHGHWHUPLQDGDSRU(DVWHUEURRNHQ\
WUDQVFXUULGRHOWLHPSRGHXQDxRXQDxR\PHGLR\GRVDxRVUHVSHFWLYDPHQWH
&RQXQDMXVWHGHPtQLPRVFXDGUDGRVGHODIXQFLyQGHODIUDFFLyQGHVXSHUYLYHQFLDHQ
DORVGDWRVGH(DVWHUEURRNSDUD9,+ORVDQ¿WULRQHVLQIHFWDGRVFRQGHQVLGDGFHOXODU7HQ
HOUDQJRGHFpOXODVPP3SURGXFHQXQYDORUGHODIUDFFLyQLQPRUWDOGHSi ⫽\XQDYLGD
PHGLDGHVXSHUYLYHQFLDGHT ⫽DxR>4@HQIRUPDHTXLYDOHQWHHOWLHPSRSURPHGLRGH
VXSHUYLYHQFLDHVTprom ⫽DxRV(VWRVUHVXOWDGRVPXHVWUDQFODUDPHQWHTXHOD]LGRYXGLQD
QRHVH¿FD]SDUDGHWHQHUODUHSOLFDFLyQGHWRGDVODVFHSDVGHO9,+\DTXHTXLHQHVUHFLEL-
HURQ HVWH IiUPDFR ¿QDOPHQWH PXULHURQ FDVL DO PLVPR ULWPR TXH TXLHQHV QR OR UHFLELHURQ
(QUHDOLGDGODSHTXHxDGLIHUHQFLDGHPHVHVHQODYLGDPHGLDGHVXSHUYLYHQFLDSDUDORV
DQ¿WULRQHVGHFRQGHQVLGDGHVFHOXODUHV7SRUGHEDMRGHFpOXODVPP3FRQWHUDSLDGH
]LGRYXGLQDT ⫽DxR\ODGHLQIHFWDGRVGHHQ0DU\ODQGTXHQRWRPDURQ]LG-
RYXGLQDT⫽DxRVHSXHGHGHEHUWRWDOPHQWHDXQDPHMRUKRVSLWDOL]DFLyQ\DPHMRUDV
HQHOWUDWDPLHQWRGHODVLQIHFFLRQHVRSRUWXQLVWDVUHODFLRQDGDVFRQHO6,'$HQHOWUDQVFXUVRGH
HVRVDxRV$VtHQ~OWLPDLQVWDQFLDGHVDSDUHFHODFDSDFLGDGLQLFLDOGH]LGRYXGLQDSDUDSUR-
ORQJDUODVXSHUYLYHQFLDFRQODHQIHUPHGDGSRU9,+\ODLQIHFFLyQUHDQXGDVXSURJUHVLyQ6H
KDHVWLPDGRTXHODWHUDSLDGH]LGRYXGLQDDPSOtDODFDSDFLGDGGHVXSHUYLYHQFLDGHXQSDFLHQWH
LQIHFWDGRFRQ9,+TXL]iSRURPHVHVHQSURPHGLR>4@
3RU~OWLPRMXQWDQGRORVUHVXOWDGRVDQWHULRUHVGHPRGHODGRSDUDDPERVFRQMXQWRVGH
GDWRVHQFRQWUDPRVTXHHOYDORUGHODIUDFFLyQLQPRUWDOVHHQFXHQWUDHQDOJ~QOXJDUGHQWUR
GHOUDQJR⬍ Si ⬍\HOWLHPSRSURPHGLRGHVXSHUYLYHQFLDVHHQFXHQWUDGHQWURGHO
UDQJRDxRV⬍ Tprom ⬍DxRV$VtHOSRUFHQWDMHGHSHUVRQDVSDUDTXLHQHVHO6,'$
QRHVXQDHQIHUPHGDGPRUWDOHVPHQRUGH\SXHGHVHUFHUR(VWRVUHVXOWDGRVFRLQ-
FLGHQFRQXQHVWXGLRGHVREUHODKHPR¿OLDDVRFLDGDFRQFDVRVGH6,'$HQ(VWDGRV
8QLGRVTXHHQFRQWUyTXHODGXUDFLyQPHGLDQDGHODVXSHUYLYHQFLDGHVSXpVGHGLDJQyVWLFR
GH6,'$IXHGHPHVHV>5@8QHVWXGLRPiVUHFLHQWH\FRPSOHWRGHKHPRItOLFRVFRQ
6,'$FOtQLFRXWLOL]DQGRHOPRGHORHQHQFRQWUyTXHODIUDFFLyQLQPRUWDOIXHSi ⫽ y los
WLHPSRVGHVXSHUYLYHQFLDPHGLDSDUDDTXHOORVHQWUH\DxRVGHHGDGYDULyHQWUHORV
\ORVPHVHVGHSHQGLHQGRGHODFRQGLFLyQDVRFLDGDDO6,'$>6@Aunque los trasplantes
de médula ósea que usan células madre del donante homocigótico para la supresión
del delta 32 CCR5 podrían conducir a curas, los datos clínicos resultantes consistente-
mente muestran que el SIDA es una enfermedad invariablemente fatal.
P-4 l PROYECTO 3.1 ¿INVARIABLEMENTE EL SIDA ES UNA ENFERMEDAD FATAL?

PROBLEMAS RELACIONADOS
1.  6XSRQJDPRVTXHODIUDFFLyQGHXQDFRKRUWHGHSDFLHQWHVFRQ6,'$TXHVREUHYLYHXQ
tiempo t GHVSXpV GH GLDJQyVWLFR GH 6,'$ HVWi GDGD SRU St ⫽ H[S⫺kt 'HPXHVWUH
TXHHOWLHPSRSURPHGLRGHVXSHUYLYHQFLDTpromGHVSXpVGHOGLDJQyVWLFRGH6,'$SDUDXQ
PLHPEURGHHVWDFRKRUWHHVWiGDGRSRUTprom ⫽冫k
2.  /DIUDFFLyQGHXQDFRKRUWHGHSDFLHQWHVFRQ6,'$TXHVREUHYLYHDXQWLHPSRtGHVSXpV
GHOGLDJQyVWLFRGH6,'$HVWiGDGDSRUSt ⫽ H[S⫺kt6XSRQJDPRVTXHODVXSHUYL-
YHQFLDPHGLDGHXQDFRKRUWHGHKHPRItOLFRVGLDJQRVWLFDGRVFRQ6,'$DQWHVGHVH
HQFRQWUyGHTprom PHVHV¢4XpIUDFFLyQGHODFRKRUWHVREUHYLYLyFLQFRDxRVGHVSXpV
GHOGLDJQyVWLFRGH6,'$"
3.  /DIUDFFLyQGHXQDFRKRUWHGHSDFLHQWHVGH6,'$TXHVREUHYLYHDXQWLHPSRtGHVSXpVGH
GLDJQyVWLFRGH6,'$HVWiGDGDSRUSt⫽H[S⫺kt(OWLHPSRTXHWDUGDStSDUDDOFDQ-
]DUHOYDORUGHVHGH¿QHFRPRHOSHULRGRGHVXSHUYLYHQFLD\HVWiGHQRWDGRSRUT
a) 'HPXHVWUHTXHStVHSXHGHHVFULELUHQODIRUPDSt⫽⫺t冫T
b) 'HPXHVWUHTXHT ⫽ TpromOQGRQGHTpromHVHOWLHPSRSURPHGLRGHVXSHUYLYHQFLD
GH¿QLGRHQHOSUREOHPD3RUORWDQWRHVFLHUWRVLHPSUHTXHT ⬍ Tprom
4.  $SUR[LPDGDPHQWHHOGHORVSDFLHQWHVGHFiQFHUGHSXOPyQVHFXUDQGHODHQIHU-
PHGDGHVGHFLUVREUHYLYHQFLQFRDxRVGHVSXpVGHOGLDJQyVWLFRFRQQLQJXQDHYLGHQFLD
GH TXH HO FiQFHU KD UHJUHVDGR 6yOR HO  GH ORV SDFLHQWHV GH FiQFHU GH SXOPyQ
VREUHYLYHQFLQFRDxRVGHVSXpVGHOGLDJQyVWLFR6XSRQJDTXHODIUDFFLyQGHSDFLHQWHV
FRQFiQFHUSXOPRQDULQFXUDEOHTXHVREUHYLYHQXQWLHPSRtGHVSXpVGHODGLDJQRVLV
HVWiGDGDSRUH[S⫺kt(QFXHQWUHXQDH[SUHVLyQSDUDODIUDFFLyQStGHSDFLHQWHVFRQ
FiQFHUGHSXOPyQTXHVREUHYLYHQXQWLHPSRtGHVSXpVGHVHUGLDJQRVWLFDGRVFRQODHQ-
IHUPHGDG$VHJ~UHVHGHGHWHUPLQDUORVYDORUHVGHODVFRQVWDQWHVHQVXUHVSXHVWD¢4Xp
IUDFFLyQGHSDFLHQWHVFRQFiQFHUSXOPRQDUVREUHYLYHGRVDxRVFRQODHQIHUPHGDG"

REFERENCIAS
1.  .UDPHU,YDQ³:KDWWULJJHUVWUDQVLHQW$,'6LQWKHDFXWHSKDVHRI+,9LQIHFWLRQDQGFKURQLF
$,'6DWWKHHQGRIWKHLQFXEDWLRQSHULRG"´HQComputational and Mathematical Methods in
MedicineYROQ~PMXQSS
2.  .UDPHU,YDQ³,V$,'6DQLQYDULDEOHIDWDOGLVHDVH"$PRGHODQDO\VLVRI$,'6VXUYLYDOFXUYHV´
en Mathematical and Computer ModellingQ~PSS
3.  (DVWHUEURRN3KLOLSSD-et al.,³3URJUHVVLYH&'FHOOGHSOHWLRQDQGGHDWKLQ]LGRYXGLQHWUHDWHG
SDWLHQWV´HQJAIDSGHDJRVWRGHQ~PSS
4.  .UDPHU,YDQ³7KHLPSDFWRI]LGRYXGLQH$=7WKHUDS\RQWKHVXUYLYDELOLW\RIWKRVHZLWKSURJUHVVLYH
+,9LQIHFWLRQ´HQMathematical and Computer ModellingYROQ~PIHEGHSS
5.  6WHKU*UHHQ-.5&+ROPDQ0$0DKRQH\³6XUYLYDODQDO\VLVRIKHPRSKLOLDDVVRFLDWHG
$,'6FDVHVLQWKH86´HQAm. J. Public HealthMXOGHDxRQ~PSS
6.  *DLO0LWFKHO+et al³6XUYLYDODIWHU$,'6GLDJQRVLVLQDFRKRUWRIKHPRSKLOLDSDWLHQWV´HQ
JAIDSGHDJRGHQ~PSS

ACERCA DEL AUTOR

Ivan KramerREWXYRODOLFHQFLDWXUDHQ)tVLFD\0DWHPiWLFDVHQHO&LW\&ROOHJHGH1XHYD
<RUNHQ\HOGRFWRUDGRHQItVLFDWHyULFDGHSDUWtFXODVHQOD8QLYHUVLGDGGH&DOLIRUQLD
HQ%HUNHOH\HQ(QODDFWXDOLGDGHVSURIHVRUDVRFLDGRGHItVLFDHQOD8QLYHUVLGDGGH
0DU\ODQGFRQGDGRGH%DOWLPRUH(O'U.UDPHUIXH'LUHFWRUGHO3UR\HFWRGHSURQyVWLFR
GH FDVRV GH9,+6,'$ HQ 0DU\ODQG SRU HO TXH UHFLELy XQD VXEYHQFLyQ GH OD$GPLQLV-
WUDFLyQ GHO 6,'$ GHO 'HSDUWDPHQWR GH 6DOXG H +LJLHQH GH 0DU\ODQG HQ $GHPiV
GHVXVPXFKRVDUWtFXORVSXEOLFDGRVVREUHODLQIHFFLyQSRU9,+\HO6,'$VXVLQWHUHVHVGH
LQYHVWLJDFLyQLQFOX\HQPRGHORVGHPXWDFLyQGHFiQFHUODHQIHUPHGDGGH$O]KHLPHU\OD
HVTXL]RIUHQLD