Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
SEPTEMBER 2011
Table of Contents
Table of Contents....................................................................................................... 1
1.Introduction............................................................................................................. 1
Computation of beta, cost of equity, cost of debt and weighted Average Cost of
Capital (WACC)...........................................................................................................3
Beta estimation....................................................................................................... 3
Cost of debt.............................................................................................................3
WACC......................................................................................................................4
1.5.Earning model...................................................................................................8
RISK FACTORS.......................................................................................................... 10
RISK MEASURES........................................................................................................11
Sensitivity Analysis................................................................................................12
Scenario Analysis..................................................................................................12
2.EXHIBITS................................................................................................................ 16
REFERENCE............................................................................................................... 27
1. Introduction
The stakeholders and potential investors of the company need to know the value of company for different
purposes including mergers and acquisitions, sale of securities, tax assessment, wills and estates, divorce
settlements, business analysis, and basic bookkeeping and accounting. It is important to note that the value of the
companies fluctuates over time. Thus, valuations are required in order for investors invest in a certain stock as of
a specific date e.g., the end of the accounting quarter or year. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valuation (finance),
viewed on July 17, 2011)
The basis for valuing a company is the financial statements. The financial statements are prepared based either on
GAAP or IFRS. The financial statement of the public companies are audited by auditors and also overseen by the
concerned government office. Thus, the financial information contained in the financial statements is more
credible than those for the private company.
The value of the company and expected return has an impact on the price of the share of a company. The return is
directly associated with the risk and has positive correlation.
There are various methods of valuation of a company. In this paper, we have undertaken valuation of Wal-Mart
Inc. These are discussed in the following sections.
Executive Summary
Wal-Mart Inc. has been in the business of merchandise sales for more than half a century. It has been
performing well through these time and is getting even bigger through expansion. In order to determine
the value of its shares, the group has utilized the known valuation methods like discounted cash flow
method, dividend growth (Gordon model) and Market Multiple analysis (EPS model), Earning method and
Book value methods. We also have calculated the beta (risk) of the company by employing a regression
analysis. The company’s potential risks have been identified which include: general economic factors, both
domestically and internationally, may adversely affect financial performance; impediment to expansion in the
United States, including conversions of discount stores into supercenters and opening other store formats; strong
competition from other retailers and wholesale club operators; risks associated with the suppliers and the safety of
those products could adversely affect its financial performance; and others.
The following are the main points identified in this valuation paper.
• Wal-Mart’s share price as at July 15,2011 was $53.63 while the share value based on DCF was $51.41
and Gordon model was $58.42
• Average sales growth of Wal-Mart’s was 7.01%,
• The required rate of return was determined as 5%, this has been used in determination value of
stock
• The weighted average cost of capital was computed as 4%
Page 1 of 26
• Growth in earnings from 2008 to 2017 in average is 7%.
Wal-Mart is established in 1962 and by now, it operates 8,000 stores across three business segments of retail
stores worldwide that offer a wide array of general merchandise including groceries, apparel, electronics, and
small appliances. In addition, the company is the world's largest retailer and grocery chain by sales and just over
half of the company's sales comes from grocery items. Over half of the company's stores are located in the United
States, with the majority of international stores located in Central and South America and China.
(http://www.wikinvest.com/stock/Wal-Mart_(WMT)#Company_Overview)
Wal-Mart is one of the biggest discount market in the US, and it is listed in the New York Stock Exchange
(NYSE) with code WMT. The company’s total sales were growing from $308,945 mill. in 2006 to $405,046 mill.
in 2010 but at a decreasing rate. The dividend was increasing from $0.60 to $1.09 in the respective periods.
Page 2 of 26
$308,945*(1+r)4=$405,046; r = 7.01%
When we consider the average for 2006 through 2010, the percentage growth becomes 7.08% as shown
below:
Interest:
Page 3 of 26
Debt 1,896 1,787
Capital leases 288 278
2,184 2,065
However, the corporate bond yield as quoted at www.finance.yahoo.com as of July 15, 2011 was 5.022%. We
used the latter rate for our analysis as it appears to be more realistic. The net of tax rate for the cost of debt will
be 3.36% ((5.022*(1-33%)).
WACC
Computation of WACC involves the cost of equity, cost of preference shares and cost of debt. In the case of Wal-
Mart, there was no preference share and thus, we only consider cost of debt and cost of equity for the computation
of WACC. In addition, capital structure and taxes are also important variables to be considered in the
computation. The capital structure is 57% of debt and 43% of equity. Effective tax rate is 33%. (source to be
included)
Thus, the computation of WACC is as shown below:
WACC= rf +β(rm), where rf is the risk free rate; β is beta; rm is risk premium
WACC= (4%*0.57)+(5%*0.43)=4%
Common business valuation methods
Discounted cash flows method
This method estimates the value of a company based on the future cash flows estimated to be generated from
operation and are discounted at the WACC to the present. According to Berkus (2002), this method is important
when the buyer intends to finance the purchase using the revenue from the purchased company itself. The
following assumptions govern the application of this valuation method.
As postedd on Gale Encyclopedia of Small Business: Discounted Cash Flow, Ronald W. Hilton, author of
Managerial Accounting, described that there are two primary methods of discounted cash flow analysis: Net-
present-value method (NPV) and internal-rate-of-return (IRR) method. Principal assumptions of these methods
are as follows:
• All cash flows are treated as though they occur at the end of the year.
• DCF methods treat cash flows associated with investment projects as though they were known with
certainty, whereas risk adjustments can be made in an NPV analysis to account in part for cash flow
uncertainties.
• Both methods assume that all cash inflows are reinvested in other projects that earn monies for the
company.
• DCF analysis assumes a perfect capital market. ( http://www.answers.com/topic/discounted-cash-flow
viewed on 27 July 2011).
Page 4 of 26
Page 5 of 26
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
EBIT 22,729.00 23,539.00 24,605.77 26,330.64 28,176.41 30,151.57 32,265.21 34,527.00 36,947.34
TAX RATE 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33
NOPAT 15,228.43 15,771.13 16,485.87 17,641.53 18,878.19 20,201.56 21,617.69 23,133.09 24,754.72
Operating current
assets 48,949.00 48,331.00 51,719.00 55,344.51 59,224.15 83,370.77 102,868.41 114,209.25 125,329.81
Operating current
liabilities 48,550.00 49,800.00 52,271.98 55,062.68 60,061.25 65,302.04 69,879.72 69,440.28 60,486.25
Net operating
working capital 399.00 (1,469.00) (552.98) 281.83 (837.10) 18,068.73 32,988.69 44,768.97 64,843.56
Net fixed assets 95,653.00 102,307.00 104,571.74 106,995.25 109,588.65 112,363.84 115,333.55 118,511.46 121,912.14
Operating capital 96,052.00 100,838.00 104,018.76 107,277.08 108,751.55 130,432.57 148,322.24 163,280.43 186,755.70
Net investment in
capital 4,786.00 3,180.76 3,258.32 1,474.47 21,681.02 17,889.67 14,958.19 23,475.27
Free Cash Flow 10,985.13 13,305.11 14,383.21 17,403.72 (1,479.46) 3,728.02 8,174.90 1,279.45
Discounting factor
at WACC OF 4% 1.00 0.96 0.92 0.89 0.85 0.82 0.79 0.76
2017 FCF will
continue in
perpetuity 33,265.66 33,265.66
Discounted FCF
2010-2017 10,985.13 12,793.37 13,298.08 15,471.85 (1,264.65) 3,064.16 6,460.74 26,251.44 87,060.12
Value of operating
assets 10,985.13 12,793.37 13,298.08 15,471.85 (1,264.65) 3,064.16 6,460.74 59,517.10 120,325.78
Value of non-
operating assets 74,306.00
194,631.78
Number of shares 3,786.00
value per share 51.41
Page 6 of 26
1.3.Dividend growth (Gordon model)
This method estimates the value of the company based on the future of stream of dividend to be paid out to the shareholders for indefinite period
of time. Based on the available information, dividend could increase every year at different rate and could also be assumed to increase at a
constant rate after a certain period. The future cash flow is then discounted at required rate of return. . It is believed that the discounted dividend
method is more precise than other methods as it is based on expected cash flows.
Assumptions employed by the Gordon valuation model:
Gordon Model is believed to be appropriate for mature companies with stable history of growth. As discussed in the foregoing
paragraph, Wal-Mart was established in 1962 and getting strong since then and it has relatively a constant growth history and has been
in business for so long with successful history and this can justify that it could be classified as the mature companies.
Growth in dividend occurs as a result of growth in earning per share,
Dividend is expected to grow for forever at constant rate, which is 2% in our case
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Dividend paid (exhibit 6) 4,217.00 4,464.94 4,934.96 5,411.67 5,780.92 6,165.40 6,782.51 7,240.81
Discounting factor at required
rate of return of 5% (Section
3.1) 1.00 0.95 0.91 0.86 0.82 0.78 0.75 0.71
Present value of dividend 2010-
2017 4,217.00 4,252.32 4,476.15 4,674.81 4,755.98 4,830.76 5,061.22 5,145.91 37,414.14
Present value of dividend
commencing 2018 in perpetuity
(growth expected at 2%) 183,760.36 183,760.36
Total value of the company 221,174.50
Page 7 of 26
1.4. EPS model (Market Multiple analysis)
The Price/Earnings ratio computes stock’s value by dividing price per share by earning per share.
This method indicates how much investor is willing to pay per dollar of the profit
2010 2009
High Low High Low
1st Quarter 54.57 46.25 59.04 47.84
2nd Quarter 51.75 47.35 59.95 55.05
3rd Quarter 52.56 48.73 63.85 47.40
4th Quarter 55.20 49.52 59.23 46.92
53.52 47.96 60.52 49.30
Probability 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50
Average price 50.74 54.91
Page 8 of 26
Value per share 77.87
RISK FACTORS
The risks described below could materially and adversely affect the business, results of operations,
financial condition and liquidity of the company. These risks are not the only risks that the
company faces. According to the filing of 10-k, some of the risk factors are the following:
(http://www.wikinvest.com/stock/Wal-Mart_(WMT)/Filing/10-K/2010/F1938644)
1.6. General economic factors, both domestically and internationally, may
adversely affect financial performance:
The overall economic slowdown results in the decreases in consumer disposable income
which could adversely affect consumer demand for the products and services.
1.7. Impediment to expansion in the United States, including conversions of
discount stores into supercenters and opening other store formats
• Failure to execute retail concepts
• Local land use and other regulations restricting the construction of buildings;
• Increased real estate, construction and development costs could limit its growth
opportunities and its ability to convert its discount stores into supercenters.
• If consumers in the markets into which it expands are not receptive to its retail concepts.
1.8. Failure to attract and retain qualified associates, changes in laws and other
labor issues could adversely affect its financial performance.
• If unable to locate or attract or to retain qualified personnel,
• If the costs of labor or related costs increase significantly or if new or revised labor laws,
rules or regulations are adopted, the financial performance could be affected adversely.
1.9. Strong competition from other retailers and wholesale club operators
1.10. Risks associated with the suppliers and the safety of those products could
adversely affect its financial performance.
• The challenge of finding qualified suppliers
• Political and economic instability in the countries in which foreign suppliers are located,
• the financial instability of suppliers,
• suppliers’ failure to meet the supplier standards,
• labor problems experienced by their suppliers, the availability of raw materials to suppliers,
• merchandise quality issues,
Page 10 of 26
• currency exchange rates, transport availability and cost, transport security, inflation, and
other factors relating to the suppliers and the countries in which they are located are beyond
their control.
• the United States’ foreign trade policies, tariffs and other impositions on imported goods,
trade sanctions imposed on certain countries, the limitation on the importation of certain
types of goods or of goods containing certain materials from other countries
1.11. Natural disasters and geo-political events could adversely affect their financial
performance.
The occurrence of one or more natural disasters, such as hurricanes, cyclones, typhoons, tropical
storms, floods, earthquakes, tsunamis, weather conditions such as major or extended winter storms,
droughts and tornados, whether as a result of climate change or otherwise, severe changes in
climate and geo-political events, such as civil unrest or terrorist attacks in a country in which they
operate or in which their suppliers are located could adversely affect the operations and financial
performance.
1.12. Legal proceedings that may adversely affect the results of operations, financial
condition and liquidity.
They are involved in a number of legal proceedings, which include consumer, employment, tort and
other litigation. Certain of these lawsuits, if decided adversely to them or settled by Wal-Mart, may
result in liability material to its results of operations, financial condition and liquidity.
1.13. If it does not maintain the security of customer-related information, it could
damage its reputation with customers, incur substantial additional costs and become
subject to litigation.
1.14. It relies extensively on computer systems to process transactions, summarize
results and manage our business. Disruptions in both its primary and secondary
(back-up) systems could harm its ability to run the business.
1.15. It may not timely identify or effectively respond to consumer trends, which
could negatively affect its relationship with its customers, the demand for its products
and services, and its market share.
RISK MEASURES
According to Ehrhardt and Brigham (2010) risk is defined as the chance that some unfavorable
events will occur. The following are approaches to consider the effect of the occurrence of the
unfavorable events in our decision process:
Page 11 of 26
Sensitivity Analysis
It is a what if analysis that enables the reviewer of a model to determine which parameters are the
key drivers/inputs to a model’s result. Sensitivity analysis measures the percentage change in NPV
that results from a given percentage in an input variable when other inputs are held constant.
(Ehrhardt & Brigham, p.436)
For the purpose of this analysis, we need to show how the value of the company changes with
changes in the growth of sales and earnings.
Scenario Analysis
In scenario analysis we will try to know what would happen to the project’s NPV if several of the
inputs turn out to be better or worse than expected. Scenario analysis allows us to assign
probabilities to the base (or most likely) case, the best case, and the worst case; then we can find the
expected value of the project’s NPV, along with its standard deviation and coefficient of variation,
to get a better idea of the project’s risk. (Ehrhardt & Brigham, p.439)
This method brings in the probabilities changes in the key variables, and it allows us to change
more than one variable at a time.
Monte Carlo Simulation
It ties together sensitivities, probability distributions, and correlations among the input variables. It
is a problem solving technique used to approximate the probability of certain outcomes by running
multiple trial runs, called simulations, using random variables. In a simulation analysis, a
probability distribution is assigned to each input.
We have performed the same type of simulation for Wal-Mart Inc. in order to determine the risk of
its stock.
In the case of Wal-Mart, we forecast financial statements for the forthcoming seven years.
Estimating the growth rate of sales is central for the rest of balance sheet and income statements
accounts with the exception of depreciation, interest expenses and taxes. In the previous
discussion, the compounded growth rate of sales was 7.01% but as future is full of uncertainty,
there would be a chance that the sales grows at a percentage other than discussed above. Thus, we
consider two more options i.e. growth at 6.25% (based on five years sales data
(http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=financials&symbol=NYSE%3AWMT viewed on July
10,2011)and 7.08%(average growth of years from 2006 through 2010). We further considered that
the probability that sales grows at 6.25%, 7.01% and 7.08% are 50%, 40% and 10% respectively.
The free cash flow calculated based on the above growth varies and accordingly, the value of the
company is shown as follows:
Page 12 of 26
Value of operating assets $141,832
Value of non-operating assets 74,398.00
216,230.26
Number of shares $3,786
value per share $57.11
See Exhibit 7
The value per share, without considering different alternatives for sales, was $51.41 as compared to
the above value of $57.11.
The risk is $55,982.62 and Coefficient of Variation (CV) is .39 which showed as the
relationship between free cash flow and the value of the company is below average.
Similarly, if we consider different growth rate in earning for 2011 to 2017 and again different
growth rate in perpetuity, the value of the company will vary. Assume the following:
Growth in earning probability 2018 in perpetuity probability
2011-2017
9% 45% 6% 35%
4% 45%
3% 20%
7% (base-compounded rate) 30% 6%
5% 25% 4% 35%
3% 45%
2% 20%
The total value and value per share based on the above scenario is as shown below
The risk is $192,709.8 and Coefficient of Variation (CV) is 0 .82 which showed as there is
strong relationship between earning and value of the company.
After having the possible chance of growth in sales, we assigned the following probability to each
event;
Growth in sales Probability
Five years growth 5.28% 45% 2.38%
Five years compounded growth 7.01% 35% 2.45%
Five years average growth 7.08% 20% 1.42%
6.25%
Page 13 of 26
A decrease in the growth of sales to 6.25% results a slight decreases in the intrinsic value of the
company as shown below:
The risk and return on equity at different growth rate of sales is as shown below
Growth in sales 6.25% 7.01%
Required rate of return ( as above) 5% 5%
Average return on equity of 8 years (2009-2017) 16.68% 16.90%
Standard deviation 0.947 0.964
When the return on equity is greater than the required rate of return, the demand for the price of the
stock will increase. According to Ehrhardt and Brigham (2010, p. ), the investors action therefore
tend to drive the expected return toward the required return. When the rate of return on equity
increases, the risk will also increase and the price of the stock will be pushed upward until the
market equilibrium brings the stock price and intrinsic value of the stock on the same point.
CONCLUSION
The group has undertaken the stock valuation of Wal-Mart Inc. as discussed in the previous parts.
The valuation is done for almost all the known valuation methods. This was done because we
believe that performing the valuation with all the available methods will reduce the fear of the
investor to decide to buy, sell or to do nothing with the stock under discussion.
However, among the popular methods of valuation, discounted cash flow method, dividend growth
(Gordon model) and Market Multiple analysis (EPS model), are the ones. Hence, even if we
performed valuations using various models, we used the aforementioned methods to compare the
stock price of Wal-Mart on NYSE and with the result of the valuation.
Page 14 of 26
Accordingly, based on the discounted cash flow method value per share is $51.41 and the closing
stock price on the NYSE
was $53.63 as of July 15, 2011 which shows that the stock price was overvalued by $2.22.
Based on the Gorden model (dividend growth model), the value per share is $58.42 and the closing
stock price on the NYSE
was $53.63 as of July 15, 2011 which shows that the stock price was undervalued by $4.79 and
investors will purchase the stock to get the advantage.
Based on the Market Multiple analysis (EPS model), the value per share is $53.76 and the closing
stock price on the NYSE
was $53.63 as of July 15, 2011 which shows that the stock price was undervalued by $0.13.
From the above points, we can see that the different valuation methods can produce different results
and hence for the marginal investor, it would be better off to calculate the average of the valuations
results and compare that with the stock price.
With this understanding, the average value per share for the mentioned three methods will be
$54.53 and for the marginal investor, since the beta coefficient as calculated earlier is 0.353 which
is below the market beta of 1.0, Wal-Mart’s stock is less riskier and hence the investor will buy the
stock.
Page 15 of 26
2. EXHIBITS
Exhibit 1: income statement
AC TUAL FO RECAST
(Amounts in millions except per share data) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Revenues:
N et sales $373,821 $401,087 $405,046 433,439.72 463,823.85 496,337.90 531,131.19 568,363.48 608,205.76 650,840.99
Membership and other income 3,202 3,287 3,168 3,551.63 3,800.60 4,067.02 4,352.12 4,657.20 4,983.67 5,333.03
377,023 404,374 408,214 436,991.35 467,624.45 500,404.92 535,483.31 573,020.69 613,189.44 656,174.01
C osts and expenses:
C ost of sales 284,137 304,056 304,657 328,015.97 351,009.89 375,615.68 401,946.34 430,122.78 460,274.39 492,539.62
Depreciation and amortization 6,317 6,739 7,157 7795.8 8342.28 8927.08 9552.87 10222.52 10939.12 11705.95
O perating, selling, general and administrative expenses
except depr 64,617 70,781 72,450 76,313.85 81,663.45 87,388.06 93,513.96 100,069.29 107,084.15 114,590.75
O perating income 21,952 22,798 23,950 24,865.73 26,608.83 28,474.10 30,470.13 32,606.10 34,891.78 37,337.70
Interest:
Debt 1,863 1,896 1,787 1,987.29 1,350.39 802.29 907.73 1,073.94 235.83 339.10
C apital leases 240 288 278 301.39 322.52 345.13 369.32 395.21 422.92 452.56
Interest income -309 -284 -181 (286.29) (306.36) (327.84) (350.82) (375.41) (401.73) (429.89)
Interest, net 1,794 1,900 1,884 2,002.40 1,366.55 819.58 926.24 1,093.75 257.02 361.77
Income from continuing operations before income taxes 20,158 20,898 22,066 22,863.34 25,242.28 27,654.52 29,543.90 31,512.35 34,634.76 36,975.93
Provision for income taxes:
C urrent 6,897 6,564 7,643 7,407.72 8,178.50 8,960.06 9,572.22 10,210.00 11,221.66 11,980.20
Deferred -8 581 -504 26.42 28.27 30.25 32.37 34.64 37.07 39.67
6,889 7,145 7,139 7,434.14 8,206.77 8,990.32 9,604.60 10,244.65 11,258.73 12,019.87
Income from continuing operations 13,269 13,753 14,927 15,429.20 17,035.51 18,664.20 19,939.30 21,267.71 23,376.03 24,956.06
Income (loss) from discontinued operations, net of tax -132 146 -79 (26.60) (28.47) (30.47) (32.60) (34.89) (37.33) (39.95)
C onsolidated net income 13,137 13,899 14,848 15,402.59 17,007.04 18,633.73 19,906.70 21,232.82 23,338.70 24,916.11
Less consolidated net income attributable to
noncontrolling interest -406 -499 -513 (519.65) (556.08) (595.06) (636.78) (681.42) (729.18) (780.30)
C onsolidated net income attributable to Walmart 12,731 13,400 14,335 14,882.94 16,450.96 18,038.67 19,269.92 20,551.40 22,609.51 24,135.81
Page 17 of 29
Exhibit # 3 relationship between sales and cost of sales
Variables Entered/Removed(b)
Variables Variables
Model Entered Removed Method
1 SALES(a) . Enter
a All requested variables entered.
b Dependent Variable: COS
Model Summary
Adjusted Std. Error of
Model R R Square R Square the Estimate
1 1.000(a) 1.000 1.000 $810.87830
a Predictors: (Constant), SALES
ANOVA(b)
Sum of
Model Squares df Mean Square F Sig.
1 Regression 14576786 1457678607 22169.22
1 .000(a)
076.150 6.150 0
Residual 5260188.
8 657523.624
995
Total 14582046
9
265.145
a Predictors: (Constant), SALES
b Dependent Variable: COS
Coefficients(a)
Unstandardized Standardized
Model Coefficients Coefficients t Sig.
B Std. Error Beta B Std. Error
1 (Constant) 620.055 2307.137 .269 .795
SALES .755 .005 1.000 148.893 .000
a Dependent Variable: COS
Exhibit # 4 relationship between sales and operating expenses
Variables Entered/Removed(b)
Variables Variables
Model Entered Removed Method
1 SALES(a) . Enter
Page 20 of 29
a All requested variables entered.
b Dependent Variable: OE
Model Summary
Model R R Square Adjusted Std. Error of
R Square the Estimate
1 .998(a) .997 .996 $582.46809
a Predictors: (Constant), SALES
ANOVA(b)
Model Sum of df Mean Square F Sig.
Squares
1 Regression 80330066 803300667.7
1 2367.739 .000(a)
7.792 92
Residual 2714152.
8 339269.070
563
Total 80601482
9
0.355
a Predictors: (Constant), SALES
b Dependent Variable: OE
Coefficients(a)
Model Unstandardized Standardized t Sig.
Coefficients Coefficients
B Std. Error Beta B Std. Error
1 (Constant) -559.771 1657.257 -.338 .744
SALES .177 .004 .998 48.659 .000
a Dependent Variable: OE
Coefficients(a)
Model Unstandardized Standardized t Sig.
Coefficients Coefficients
B Std. Error Beta B Std. Error
1 (Constant) -559.771 1657.257 -.338 .744
SALES .177 .004 .998 48.659 .000
a Dependent Variable: OE
Page 21 of 29
Exhibit # 5: MONTHLY RETURN OF
WALMART AND SP500
Variables Entered/Removed(b)
Variables Variables
Model Entered Removed Method
1 SP500(a) . Enter
a All requested variables entered.
b Dependent Variable: WALMART
Model Summary
Coefficients(a)
Unstandardized Standardized
Model Coefficients Coefficients t Sig.
B Std. Error Beta B Std. Error
1 (Constant) .214 .578 .370 .713
SP500 .324 .113 .353 2.872 .006
a Dependent Variable: WALMART
Page 22 of 29
Exhibit # 6: ANALYSIS OF RISK BASED ON THE STOCK PRICE OF WAL-MART AND S&P 500
Regression
Variables Entered/Removed(b)
Variables Variables
Model Entered Removed Method
1 SP500ADJ
CLOSEPR . Enter
ICE(a)
a All requested variables entered.
b Dependent Variable: WALMARTADJCLOSEPRIC
Model Summary
Adjusted Std. Error of
Model R R Square R Square the Estimate
1 .934(a) .872 .872 7.21023
a Predictors: (Constant), SP500ADJCLOSEPRICE
ANOVA(b)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
12,73 13,40 14,33 14,88 16,45 18,03 19,27 20,55 22,61 24,13
Earnings 1 0 5 3 1 9 0 1 0 6
Dividend 3586 3746 4217 4,465 4,935 5,412 5,781 6,165 6,783 7,241
Page 23 of 26
Retained 10,11
earning 8985 9183 8 10418 11516 12627 13489 14386 15827 16895
2009 2010
Total current liabilities 55390 55561
Long-term debt 31,349 33,231
Long-term obligations under capital leases 3,200 3,170
Redeemable non controlling interest 397 307
Total debt 90,336 92,269
Total equity $67,079 $72,929
Total debt and equity 157,415 165,198
Total debt to total of debt and equity 0.57 0.56
Average of the two years 0.57
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Exhibit 11: Scenario Analysis: sales growth
S c en a rio An alys is: sa le s g ro w th
0 .3 5 2 0 , 9 7 7 . 6 2 3 6 7 , 1 0 8 . 2 8$ 3 8 3 , 2 5 2 9% 3 3,5 3 4 .5 2 ( 2 0 0 ,0 8 3 .3 7 ) 4 0 ,0 3 3 ,3 5 5 ,8 6 2 .3 5 3 ,5 0 2 ,9 1 8 ,6 3 7 .9 6
2 5 % 15 ,0 5 1 .7 5 1 5 , 8 0 4 . 3 4 1 6 , 5 9 4 . 5 5 1 7 , 4 2 4 . 2 8 1 8 , 2 9 5 . 5 0 1 9 , 2 1 0 . 2 7 2 0 , 1 7 0 . 72 8 0 .4 5 2 0 , 7 7 5 . 9 1 1 8 1 , 7 8 9 . 2 0$ 2 4 2 , 4 2 4 11% 2 7,2 7 2 .7 4 ( 2 0 6 ,3 4 5 .1 5 ) 4 2 ,5 7 8 ,3 2 0 ,4 6 0 .8 0 4 ,7 9 0 ,0 6 1 ,0 5 1 .8 4
0 .2 0 2 0 , 5 7 4 . 2 0 1 2 0 , 0 1 6 . 1 7$ 1 9 5 , 4 8 2 5% 9 ,7 7 4 .10 ( 2 2 3 ,8 4 3 .7 9 ) 5 0 ,1 0 6 ,0 4 4 ,3 0 9 .4 8 2 ,5 0 5 ,3 0 2 ,2 1 5 .4 7
E x p e c te d N P V =2 3 3 , 6 1 7 . 8 9
S ta n d a r d D e v i a ti o n (S 1D9) 2=, 7 0 9 . 8 0 S u m = v a r ia n c e 3 7 ,1 3 7 ,0 6 8 ,5 8 1 .6 9
C o e ffi c i e n t o f V a r i a ti o n (C V ) = S td D e v / E x p e c te 0d. 8N2P V = Sq ro o t o f V ar = σ 1 9 2 ,7 0 9 .8 0
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REFERENCE
Ehrhardt. M.C. and Brigham. E.F. 2011, 2009. ‘Corporate Finance: A Focused Approach’, 4th ed.,
Ohio: South-Western Cengage Learning.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valuation (finance), viewed on July 17, 2011)
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/
www.finance.yahoo.com viewed on July 15, 2011
http://www.answers.com/topic/discounted-cash-flow viewed on 27 July 2011).
http://www.investorwords.com/1618/earnings.html
http://thismatter.com/money/stocks/valuation/book-liquidation-value-q-ratio.htm
http://www.rmmag.com/Magazine/PrintTemplate.cfm?AID=2209(http://www.advfn.com/p.php?
pid=financials&symbol=NYSE%3AWMT
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