Research in Transportation Economics 39 (2013) 133e138

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Research in Transportation Economics

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TransMilenio BRT system in Bogota, high performance and positive impact e Main
results of an ex-post evaluation
Darío Hidalgo a, *, Liliana Pereira b, Nicolás Estupiñán c, Pedro Luis Jiménez d
a
EMBARQ, The WRI Center for Sustainable Transport, 10 G Street NE, Washington, DC 20002, USA
b
Steer Davies Gleave, Colombia
c
CAF, Development Bank of Latin America, Argentina
d
National Planning Department, Colombia

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: The paper presents the main characteristics, costs and impacts of TransMilenio, the bus based mass
Available online 15 July 2012 transit system of Bogotá, using BRT corridors and feeder services. An ex-post cost-benefit analysis is
done, including monetary valuation of direct impacts on travel time and travel cost and externalities,
Keywords: such as improved road safety and air quality. Impacts on crime, land values, employment and tax revenue
Public transport are also presented. The results are positive and robust; nevertheless, it is important to recognize that user
Bus rapid transit (BRT)
perception has declined and there is urgent need to introduce service improvements. The paper also
Economic evaluation
includes an ex-ante evaluation of the projected expansion using current costs, which indicates the need
TransMilenio
Bogota, Colombia
to limit construction capital costs. The results are an indication of the potential of BRT, and the evaluation
methodology is applicable to other transit projects.
Ó 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction bus-only lanes, prepaid stations, level boarding, advanced collec-

TransMilenio System is the largest investment in public trans-
portation in Colombia in the last decade, with significant impacts
on travel times, transportation costs, the environment, accidents
and urban development of the nation’s capital. The system has been
recognized as a sustainable transport best practice (see for
example, Rosenthal, 2009).
This article documents the characteristics and costs of the
Bogotá TransMilenio mass transit system, quantifies impacts on
users and society as a whole, and calculates indicators for cost-
benefit evaluation. This evaluation covers Phases I and II, which
were implemented between 1998 and 2006.
It also reviews the execution of the plan set out by the national
and local governments (CONPES, 2000), and examines the socio-
economic impact of the plan based on the results of Phases I and II.
The article details the achievements and positive impacts of the
system, and highlights urgent needs for improvement, as its user
satisfaction declines and infrastructure costs rise.
2. Characteristics of the TransMilenio system
TransMilenio is a mass transit system that integrates bus rapid
transit (BRT) corridors and feeder services. The BRT corridors use
* Corresponding author. Tel.: þ57 1 314 7787381.
E-mail address: dhidalgo@wri.org (D. Hidalgo).
tion systems, centralized control systems, and a distinctive image.
The feeder services cover local roads and are integrated at terminal
stations (known as “portals”) and intermediate integration points.
TransMilenio’s characteristics are those of a high-level Bus Rapid
Transit e BRT e system (Diaz & Hinebaugh, 2009).
TransMilenio operates using a publiceprivate partnership
mechanism. The city administration is responsible for construction
and maintenance of the infrastructure (through the Instituto de
Desarrollo Urbano, the Urban Development Institute), and for
planning, management, and control of the service (through
TRANSMILENIO S.A.). The system is operated by a private-sector
contractors under concession contracts (trunk services, feeder
areas, collection system, station advertising), and certain services
are outsourced (station cleaning, security, and maintenance).
Phases I and II, implemented between 1998 and 2006, have the
following characteristics (data from July 2011, TRANSMILENIO S.A.,
2011):

Length of Bus-Only Lanes: 84 km

Length of Feeder Routes: 663 km of routes

Stations: 114

Trunk Vehicles: 1262 articulated buses10 bi-articulated buses

Feeder Vehicles: 519 conventional buses (12 m)

Feeder Routes: 83

Payment System: Contactless smart card

Control Center: On-line real-time supervision

0739-8859/$ e see front matter Ó 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.retrec.2012.06.005
134 D. Hidalgo et al. / Research in Transportation Economics 39 (2013) 133e138

User information: Fixed signage and dynamic display panels Table 1

Total passengers: Average of 1.7 million on weekdays TransMilenio costs, Phases I and II (present value 1998e2018, with a 12% discount
rate).

Users of feeder routes: 48% of the total users

Fare: Flat-rate COL$1700 per trip (USD 0.94), including transfer COP billion USD million
(2008) (2008)

The TransMilenio System has grown quickly since it was first Public costs $2189.30 $1216.3
Studies and project preparation costs $24.39 $13.55
launched. Demand has increased from 14,000 passengers per day in
Real estate purchase and resettlement $281.57 $156.43
December 2000 to 1.7 million. Between 2007 and 2011 demand Infrastructure construction and/or $1705.70 $947.61
increased by 350,000 passengers per day (26%), without physical rehabilitation
expansion of the system. Infrastructure maintenance $87.06 $48.36
Trunk operations exhibit high performance standards: 45,000 Implementation of control center $28.96 $16.09
Control center operation $6.38 $3.54
pax/hour/direction in the most heavily loaded section; commercial Costs of the public project management $55.23 $30.68
speed of 27 km/h; 5.0 passengers per bus-kilometer, and 1336 agency
passengers per bus per day. Vehicles have high internal occupancy Private costs $1401.42 $778.57
levels, at 150 passengers per bus at the heaviest-loaded segment Bus fleet acquisition $431.52 $239.73
Bus fleet operation $743.85 $413.25
(approximately 7 passengers per square meter).
Implementation of collection system $19.55 $10.86
Reviewing operational indicators for 2002 through 2008 allows Collection system operation $206.51 $114.72
us to identify certain interesting trends: Total $3590.72 $1994.84

Source: EMBARQ (2009) based on data provided by TRANSMILENIO S.A.

The number of day-equivalents per year is 302.5 on average.

There has been an increase in the peak concentration: in 2002
the average boardings during the peak period represented 9.5% 52% of the estimated benefits come from travel time savings for
of daily boardings; in 2008 they represented 12.0%. transit users, 37% from savings on the operation of traditional buses

About 50% of trips use feeder vehicles when boarding and removed from service following the implementation of Trans-
exiting the system. This figure has remained relatively stable Milenio, and 8% come from air pollution and traffic crashes savings
between 2003 and 2008. (reductions in deaths and illnesses).

The average trip length increased from 11 km to 13 km with the The estimate includes lost time during construction, but does
physical expansion of the system. The on-board travel time not incorporate impacts on overall traffic after the project was
increased from 24 min to 30 min as a result of greater trip implemented (i.e. reduced travel times and operating costs due to
lengths and reduction in the average commercial speed of the reduced traffic congestion). As a result, the evaluation is on the
trunk services. conservative side.

The average speed of the trunk fleet increased to 28 km/h in The Net Present Value of the socio-economic benefits and costs
2006, and then decreased to levels similar to those from 2003 between 1998 and 2018, using a 12% annual discount rate, is $2.04
to 2005 (26e27 km/h). trillion pesos of 2008 (USD 1.13 billion). The benefit/cost ratio is 2.5,

The Passengers Per Kilometer Traveled Index (PPK) has and the social internal rate of return is 24.2%. The most relevant
decreased gradually to close to 5.0. assumptions and parameters for the evaluation are presented in
Table 3.
The system fare is updated according to contractual mecha- An analysis of the results’ sensitivity to changes in certain
nisms based on formulas that reflect variations in the cost of inputs. assumptions indicates that the project is very robust: the Net
The fare has risen more quickly than inflation, especially due to Present Value remains positive even in the face of significant
increasing fuel costs. It is also higher than the average fare for changes in input values (Table 4). The greatest changes are seen in
traditional bus routes (about 76% of the total transit trips in the benefits from travel time and transit operating costs.
city). The difference in fares ranges between 12.5% (2002) and The expost facto evaluation in this study has a benefit/cost ratio
30.0% (first quarter 2007). B/C comparable to that used in the policy document that supported
User-satisfaction indicators were high at the start of operation the decision to provide national grants to the project (CONPES,
and have generally trended downward, with significant fluctua- 2000). B/C is higher than that in the evaluations made by the
tions, and critical low values reported in 2007; by 2009 satisfaction
levels were average to low (Bogotá ¿Cómo Vamos?, 2010;
TRANSMILENIO S.A., 2011). To improve quality of service and user Table 2
perception it is necessary to improve essential aspects, such as Present value of benefits, TransMilenio, Phase I and II (using a 12% discount rate).
occupancy levels, frequency, reliability, and personal safety. Oper- Benefits COP billion USD million
ational improvements for feeder services are especially important. (2008) (2008)
Reduced travel time in $3066.28 $1703.49
3. Socioeconomic evaluation of Phases I and II public transport
Time lost during ($173.84) ($96.58)
construction
An evaluation was conducted for a 20 year period (1998e2018) Reduced operating cost $2230.58 $1239.21
with a 12% discount rate. The present value of project costs was $3.6 of public transport
trillion pesos in 2008 (USD 2.0 billion), of which 61% reflected vehicles
public costs and 39% reflected private costs (Table 1). This amount Reduced injuries, deaths $301.49 $167.49
and losses due to road
includes adjustments of market prices into economic prices, using
crashes
shadow price ratios. It also includes infrastructure rehabilitation Positive impact on health $206.01 $114.45
budgets for 2010 through 2018 and fleet replacement at year ten, as due to reduced emissions
well as fleet growth according to expected demand increases. of air pollutants
The present value of the estimated benefits from the project Total $5630.52 $3128.07

amount to $5.6 trillion pesos of 2008 (USD 3.1 billion, see Table 2). Source: EMBARQ (2009), data provided by TRANSMILENIO S.A.
 D. Hidalgo et al. / Research in Transportation Economics 39 (2013) 133e138 135

Table 3
Main assumptions and parameters for evaluation.

Component Value COP (USD) Units Comments

Infrastructure investment $22,009 (12.23) Millions per km Phase I (1)
$39,110 (21.73) Phase II (1)
Infrastructure rehabilitation 50% of initial investment Year 11 (2)
Investment in buses $499 (0.277) Millions per unit Articulated (1)
$168 (0.093) Feeder (1)
Replacement of buses 100% of initial investment Year 10 (2)
Operation of Trunk Buses $1942 (1.080) per km Average, 2002e2008 (1)
Operation of feeder buses $1235 (0.686) per km (1)
Value for travel time $2258.75 (1.250) per hour Based on income (2)
Losses during construction 50% time savings (2)
Impacts on accidents and health $1,800,817,119 (1,000,454) Death Value of a statistical life; accidents
$25,549,379 (14,194) Injury according to insurance; health equivalent (2)
$2,828,787 (1572) Accident
$98,444 (54.69) Chronic bronchitis
$33,615 (18.68) Restricted activity/day
$36,016 (20.01) Lost day

Sources: (1) TRANSMILENIO S.A., (2) Assumed value, EMBARQ (2009).

World Bank to support loans to the city of Bogotá (World Bank,
The employment balance due to the implementation of
2003, 2004). TransMilenio is positive: a net figure (jobs created minus jobs
This evaluation considers a greater range of benefits than those lost) between 1900 and 2900 permanent jobs in operations,
of CONPES and World Bank, such as the benefits from reductions in plus 1400 to 1800 jobs per month in construction. The precise
road traffic deaths and air pollutant emissions. The expost facto number net jobs created has high uncertainty, as it depends on
internal rate of return IRR is much lower than that originally assumptions on the employment in the informal transport and
calculated (mainly due to higher initial costs) and it is comparable construction industries. The job balance is positive despite the
to the results of the World Bank evaluations. elimination of traditional buses (EMBARQ, 2009).
This expost evaluation confirms the positive impact estimated in
The transport industry formalization through the concession
exante evaluations of the overall project or some specific trunk- contracts has resulted in increased tax revenues for the national
ways (Chaparro, 2002; CONPES, 2000; Hidalgo & Illera, 2001; and local governments. The financial statements from Trans-
World Bank, 2003, 2004). Nevertheless, the evaluation indicators Milenio system private operators report income tax payments of
are smaller, due to increased costs of the systems’ infrastructure. $32.158 billion pesos of 2008 (USD 17,866 million), and $17.476
One of the ex-ante evaluations predicted negative socio-economic billion pesos (USD 9709 million) in other taxes, such as VAT, sales
impacts (Echeverri, Ibáñez, & Hillón, 2004). However, this evalua- and industry taxes, vehicle taxes, and others between 2005 and
tion has been criticized due to methodological errors and faulty 2008 (EMBARQ, 2009). These revenues are not received under
information sources (Ardila, 2005). the traditional operation of bus services in Bogota.

Various sources indicate positive impacts on land prices. The
4. Other impacts of the TransMilenio system, Phases I and II Bogotá Real Estate Exchange (Lonja de Propiedad Raíz, 2002)
reported actual increases in land prices in areas less than 1 km
The implementation of the system has generated a series of from TransMilenio between 2000 and 2001, during a period in
impacts that are not necessarily weighed in the socioeconomic which average land prices dropped in the city at large. Studies
evaluation. The following impacts stand out: of hedonic prices based on panel surveys conducted in 2002
(housing rentals) and time series for 2000e2004 (new real
Table 4
estate developments) reflect positive trends in land prices in
Results of the sensitivity analysis (12% discount rate). areas that are within walking distance of TransMilenio stations
(Barrios, 2002; Muñoz-Raskin, 2010; Rodriguez & Targa, 2004).
Net present value Change B/C IRR
There are variations in the results depending on socioeconomic
COP billion USD million class (positive for middle-class, negative for lower income and
Base scenario $2039.80 $1133.22 2.501 24.2% upper-class categories). In contrast, negative impacts on
Salvage value equal $1932.53 $1073.63 5.3% 2.464 24.0%
housing have been seen in the immediate vicinities of stations;
to zero
Rehabilitation cost $1874.70 $1041.50 8.1% 2.402 23.6%
possibly due to greater commercial use and the negative effect
equal to initial of noise and perceived safety (Rodriguez & Targa, 2004). For
construction a more complete list of land use impacts of the TransMilenio
50% increase in fleet $1993.39 $1107.44 2.3% 2.470 24.1% system see Estupiñán (2011, pp. 34e43).
value, 2009e2018

According to statistics from the Center for Criminal Investiga-
50% increase in bus $1881.11 $1045.06 7.8% 2.336 23.7%
operating costs tions of the Bogotá Metropolitan Police, aggregate crime in the
50% lower travel time $593.58 $329.77 70.9% 1.859 16.3% area around Av. Caracas dropped 85% between the period prior
value to (1999e2000) and following (2001e2002) the implementa-
Losses during construction $1865.96 $1036.44 8.5% 2.424 22.4%
tion of TransMilenio (Moreno García, 2005).
equal to 100% of time
savings in first year
Transit savings 50% lower $924.51 $513.33 54.7% 2.006 17.8%
Value of a statistical Life $1868.80 $1038.22 8.4% 2.425 23.2% 5. User satisfaction
50% lower
Health and accident $1626.42 $903.57 20.3% 2.317 21.6% TransMilenio received very high ratings during the first three
benefits equal to zero years of operation, but they have declined steadily. The perception
Sources: EMBARQ (2009), based on data provided by TRANSMILENIO S.A. of quality of the different modes of transport in Bogotá is shown in
136 D. Hidalgo et al. / Research in Transportation Economics 39 (2013) 133e138
Fig. 1. TransMilenio has shown the most significant change: 4.6
(good) in 2001 and 3.0 (Regular) in 2009. The main complaints
registered by the respondents are the high occupation of the buses,
low frequency in trunk and feeder, insecurity (thefts) and delayed
routes (Bogotá ¿Cómo Vamos?, 2010).
The agency in charge of the system conducts monthly surveys as
part of its quality assurance process. Fig. 2 shows the user ratings
between January 2002 and July 2009. Trunk services are very well
rated between 2003 and 2005 (more than 90% good and very good),
and a decline thereafter.
Declining user satisfaction ratings have resulted from slow
expansion of the system e no new busways in operation after 2006,
and deterioration of infrastructure due to insufficient maintenance.
Low ratings indicate the need to introduce operational improve-
ments in essential service aspects, such as occupancy levels, reli-
ability and personal security. Service improvements are especially
important in the feeder services.
6. Evaluation of initial plan (CONPES 3093, 2000)
The TransMilenio plan was approved by the Consejo Nacional de
Política Económica y Social (National Council of Economic and Social
Policy, CONPES, 2000). The plan sets out the gradual construction of
388 km of bus-only trunk corridors and complementary infra-
structure (stations, terminals, bus depots and workshops, pedes-
trian accesses, control center). The plan covered the period
between 2000 and 2015, with a total public investment of USD 1.97
billion for 2000 (USD 5.07 million per kilometer). The plan included
private investments of USD 969 million (buses and fares), for a total
project budget of USD 2937 billion (USD 7.57 million per kilometer).
The plan sets the national government contribution at 66% and the
Capital District’s share at 34%. The total amount of public contri-
butions to the project was calculated at $6,021,249 million pesos of
2008 (USD 3345 million).
The project’s physical and financial progress is shown in Table 5.
We note that the actual cost per kilometer is much higher than the
value initially estimated, while physical progress has been slower.
Nevertheless the system productivity, measured in passengers per
km of bus-only lanes (trunk), has been similar to what was
anticipated.
The higher figure for investment per kilometer is the result of
multiple requirements not initially anticipated. They include
pavement structures, mixed-traffic infrastructure, property acqui-
sition, compensations to property owners and residents, grade-
separated intersections, increased sizes of terminals and bus
Fig. 1. User rating for public transport in Bogotá 1998e2009 e 5.0 (very good) e 1.0 (very bad). Source: User perception survey Bogotá ¿Cómo Vamos? (2010).
depots, relocation public utility networks (water, sewerage, power,
phone, etc.), and financing costs.
Delays in implementation with respect to the plan resulted from
belated approvals by multiple institutions, interruptions in the
contracting process, and difficulties during construction: property
acquisition, traffic detours during construction, weather events,
accidents, design changes, and government agencies’ and private
contractors’ lack of capacity to meet fast construction expectations.
The system’s productivity is similar to that which was antici-
pated. The volume of passengers transported per kilometer of trunk
service reached 19,408 in 2009, which is 99% of the estimated
productivity expected in the original plan (CONPES, 2000).
A revision of the socioeconomic evaluation of the plan (CONPES,
2000) was conducted (Table 6) shows favorable indicators;
however, they are much lower than those estimated for the project
plan approval. This is primarily explained due to higher investment
and operating costs, and lower benefits from travel time and
operating costs, compared to the original evaluation. The revised
evaluation also includes negative impacts on traffic during
construction, which were not considered in the original evaluation.
The comparison of these results with the evaluation of Phases I
and II suggests that net benefits of the system expansion decrease
in the upcoming phases. The present value of Phases I and II is $2.0
billion, while the present value of the entire project (five phases) is
$2.2 billion. That is, the 462% increase in kilometers built (from 84
to 388 km) only brings a 9% increase in Net Present Value. In turn,
the social IRR drops from 24% to 16%.
The foregoing is primarily due to high investment costs, espe-
cially the construction of mixed-traffic lanes and non grade inter-
sections for general traffic. The mixed-traffic construction projects
have entailed increased requirements in right of way acquisitions
and additional construction than originally envisioned.
If public capital investment costs are reduced by 50%, the full
project may have a Net Present Value of $3.4 billion (70% increase
versus Phases I and II), with a social internal rate of return of 22%.
This suggests a high desirability of constraining the investments in
further phases of the project, for instance limiting the investment
to 50% of the figure attained in Phases I and II e that is, $27 billion
2008 pesos per kilometer (USD 13 million per kilometer). This may
be possible if additional infrastructure for general traffic (mixed-
traffic lanes and non-grade intersections) is not expanded while
building the exclusive bus-lanes.
While this is a numerical conclusion, it is necessary to have
further validation. The proposed corridors for system expansion
have very high levels of public transport use (more than 10,000
 D. Hidalgo et al. / Research in Transportation Economics 39 (2013) 133e138 137

100.00

90.00

80.00

y = 1E+19x-3.741
70.00 R² = 0.3713

60.00

50.00

40.00
May-02

May-03

May-04

May-05

May-06

May-07

May-08
Jan-02

Jan-03

Jan-04

Jan-05

Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08
Sep-02

Sep-03

Sep-04

Sep-05

Sep-06

Sep-07

Sep-08
Fig. 2. Trunk service ratings e percent responses in the categories good and very good e January 2002eJuly 2009. Source: TRASMILENIO S.A. (2009).

Table 5
Physical and financial progress of implementation according to CONPES 3093, 7. Conclusions
2000e2008.

Planned Completed Progress

The ex-post evaluation of TransMilenio Phases I and II confirms
the positive impact the investment has brought to the city of
Trunk corridor kilometers 172 84 49%
Demand, passengers/weekday 3,319,385 1,600,000 48% Bogotá, providing an indication of the potential of BRT in other
Passengers/day per Trunk 19,254 19,408 99% cities. Along with traditional impacts in travel time and travel cost,
Kilometer the methodology includes socio-economic valuation of health
Public investment, millions 719.5 1476.0 205% impacts e reduced fatalities, injuries and illnesses resulting from
of 2000 USD
Public investment, billions 2199.2 4511.3
improved road safety and air quality, as well as an estimation of the
of 2008 pesos negative traffic impacts during construction. The ex-post evalua-
Public investment per km, 4.17 17.57 421% tion indicators are smaller than those expected ex-ante due to
millions of 2000 USD increase in construction costs and delays in the system expansion.
Public investment per km, 12.76 53.71
The result of the evaluation is robust; the positive socioeconomic
billions of 2008 pesos
result holds for large changes in evaluation assumptions. The study
Sources: CONPES (2000), EMBARQ (2009). also presents other impacts, such as decline in crime and increases
passengers per hour per direction) in low efficiency conditions in land values, employment and tax revenues. Despite the policy
(around 1 passenger boarding per vehicle-km). They also have high success according to socio-economic and other impact indicators,
general traffic levels (3000þ vehicles per hour per direction). there is a strong decline in user perception and a need to introduce
Dedicating lanes to public transport is expected to improve traffic service improvements.
for all vehicles, even if general traffic lanes are not expanded. The study also evaluates the expansion of the system using the
Nevertheless, this needs to be studied in greater detail. current capital costs for infrastructure e which introduce
City government policies in 2012 are to continue the expansion roadway expansion to mitigate impacts on general traffic. This
of the TransMilenio system to two new corridors without making evaluation indicates that, at the current costs of USD 26 million
interventions on the general traffic lanes (El Tiempo, 2012). per kilometer, the socio-economic rate for return is 16%, way
below the 61% expected in the original plan. If the capital costs
are 50% of the current cost (USD 13 million per kilometer), the
Table 6 socio-economic rate of return would increase to 22% and the net
Socioeconomic indicators CONPES 3093 plan.
present value by 70%. Reduction in capital cost is possible if road
Revised evaluation Original evaluation Difference expansion for general traffic is not funded through the mass
1998e2040 1998e2030 transit project.
Net Present Value $2225.45 $4569.45 48.7%
12% (billions of
2008 pesos) Acknowledgment
Net present value $1236.36 $2538.58
12% (millions of The authors acknowledge the support of TRANSMILENIO S.A.
USD)
Equivalent annual $269.11 $563.32 47.7%
This article summarizes a study funded by the National Planning
amount 12% Department of Colombia, and was prepared as part of the work of
(billions of 2008 ALC-BRT Center of Excellence (www.brt.cl), financed by Volvo
pesos) Research and Educational Foundations VREF (www.vref.se). ALC-
Equivalent annual $149.51 $312.96
BRT works as a consortium of Pontificia Universidad Católica de
amount 12%
(millions of USD) Chile (PUC), Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Instituto
Benefit/cost ratio B/C 1.193 2.45 83.8% Técnico Superior de Lisboa, The University of Sydney and EMBARQ
Social internal rate 16.4% 61.1% 26.8% e The WRI Center for Sustainable Transport, including its network
of return IRR of centers of sustainable transport. Thanks also to anonymous
Source: CONPES (2000), EMBARQ (2009). reviewers for their input.
138 D. Hidalgo et al. / Research in Transportation Economics 39 (2013) 133e138

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