Real Reason Why Pakistan Is Rattled By Abolishing Article 370

Kishor Katti Blog
The author of this blog is a keen student of politics and history. He gathers the information
from variety of sources, analyze it and then articulate it in simple language, He does lot of
research before posting a blog and try to give entire picture of the topic. He believes in giving
unbiased, independent views and does not follow any ideology or political affiliation.
Saturday, August 31, 2019
Real Reason Why Pakistan Is Rattled To The Core Because of Abolishing Of Article 370?
The recent unparliamentary statements from Pakistani leadership, right from Imran Khan, Army Chief
Bajwa till local body leaders from Pakistan shows Pakistan is rattled, threatened and feeling the real
heat because of scrapping of article 370.
On the surface of it it appears, by abolishing article 370, India has unilaterally decided that J&K is no
more a disputed territory. Now Pakistan is worried that, J&K which is their struggle for the whole life,
and an icon for Pakistan's existence, is wiped out. They also fear that, India by abolishing article 370 has
unilaterally converted LOC into defacto international border.
But is it the only reason why Pakistan is giving statements of extremity, insanity? They are literally
threatening the world by saying, if article 370 is not reinstated then there will be a nuclear war.
The question is, why Pakistan should be worried so much about article 370? After all, it was just an
administrative correction from Indian side. It was needed to bring equality, parity amongst the
population and open new avenues of prosperity. Nothing changed at the ground level for Pakistan. Still
they could call it a disputed territory, still they could claim Kashmir as their own and still they could
infiltrate terrorists in J&K.
Then Why Pakistan is So rattled?

The real reason is as follows. Pakistan knows, scrapping article 370 was needed to correct the problems
within India but it is not the India's final solution. India will not stop at this. They will capture PoK to
integrate entire J&K and that will be the final solution. The prospect of losing PoK is what rattling
Pakistan.
But why Pakistan should be worried unnecessarily on this possibility? After all they have an active army
of 6.5 million and NUCLEAR capability to protect Pakistan's territorial interests. Pakistan has always
used Nuclear capability as a deterrent for lot of bad actions in the past. Pakistan will never give up PoK
without a fight and possible use of nuclear warheads. Then why this rhetoric of threats?
Pakistan is feeling the heat because of couple of reasons.
1) Pakistan's weak economy will not allow Pakistan to fight a conventional war with India for more than
7 days. After that Pakistan's defeat is certain.
2) To counter that, nuclear war is the option but Pakistan knows, nuclear weapons are just a deterrent.
They can showcase them as a deterrent but cannot use them. If they use them, then they will be wiped
out physically and logically. Hence that is not a real option.
3) International pressure - Pakistan's International standing is so weak that no country in the world
except China is ready to stand in support of Pakistan. In recent days, Pakistan did try to internationalize
the Kashmir issue but failed miserably because no one except China supported it. China's support is
because of CPEC project, which it wants to protect. I will touch upon this point later.
This international apathy for Pakistan and Kashmir is what really rattling Pakistan.
Let's understand how international body is thinking?
US wants to get out of Afghanistan ASAP. They are negotiating with Taliban for the transfer of power
after September 2019 elections. But Afghanis and Indians don't want Taliban to take over power
because it will again start violence, instability and terrorism in South Asia. Plus Taliban's
rule in Afghanistan will be an "advantage Pakistan". Pakistan will use Afghanistan as a backyard to
train terrorists and situation like 2001 will reemerge. And nobody, including US wants that to happen.
Then what is the option? The option is, India needs to play an active role in supporting Afghani
government to stabilize. US also wants India to play a stabilizer role because it is in close proximity of
Afghanistan as compared to the US main land. But to play active role in Afghanistan, India needs direct
access to Afghanistan.
Today, all modes of access to Afghanistan goes through either Pakistan or Iran. India cannot ask Iran to
provide safe route for the Indian military to enter into Afghanistan because of strained relations
between US and Iran, and Pakistan will never allow Indian air force planes to fly over its territory. If India
cannot get a safe passage to transport men, machinery and supplies then it cannot operate in
Afghanistan.
This is where the permanent solution of PoK comes into play. Please see the attached map below.
The above map shows, the only entry point from India to Afghanistan is through PoK. That is why PoK
is strategically so important.
If India integrates PoK with rest of the Kashmir then India can get direct Road access to Afghanistan.
India can use this route to sustain its mission in Afghanistan and provide stability.
US will agree for this plan and drum up support from other western countries. This has lot more
strategic value than just stabilizing Afghanistan.
1) India will get direct access to central asian markets via road, which will improve trade and commerce.
2) US in future, need not depend on Pakistan's strategic geographical position to access Afghanistan and
Central Asia. They need not pay ransom money to Pakistani generals for keeping the transportation
routes open. India will be a reliable and friendly country to deal with. Russia too will support this
because they too don't want Taliban to come back.
3) US will use "Unified J&K" as a counter measure to keep China under check. This action will affect
China's expansion plans in South and Central Asia. The big danger here is China's reputation as a "Loan
Shark". They give loans to the smaller countries for developing infrastructure but when these small
countries cannot repay the loan then they ask that land for themselves. China has done same thing in Sri
Lanka and taken over entire port. If Pakistan cannot replay China's loan then same thing will happen
with Pakistan's CPEC project. If Pakistan gives CPEC area to China then that would be disastrous because
then China will get direct road access to Iran, which US don't want at all to happen.
Hence there is a good chance that US will support India to integrate PoK with J&K. Pakistani leadership
knows this may happen and that is why they are so worried to save PoK. India is also making it clear that
PoK belongs to India. Indian leadership has recently made number of such statements saying, PoK
belongs to India.
What will Pakistan do if India takes a military action in PoK?

Pakistan will fight back, there will be collateral damage and Pakistan will lose PoK. But it will not go for a
nuclear war because US will assure Pakistan that if Pakistan backs off then US will get them World Bank loan
to rebuild the economy. They will offer other incentives to Pakistan to let go PoK. Pakistan will accept it
because the other route is total destruction of the country.
What will China do if India takes PoK?
China will have major problem for CPEC investments because a big portion goes through PoK. Please see
the map below. CPEC going through PoK is marked with Blue color.
China may threaten to open another front on the eastern side but will not do so because of US pressure.
If they open another front with India then that will start a very big war and lot of countries will get
involved in it. Hence chances of China opening another front with India are remote.
Instead, China and India can made a deal, ahead of time to protect CPEC route in PoK, India can sign a
contract with China to protect China's investment! China will welcome this because its huge investments
in CPEC would be protected and it would be mutually beneficial for both the countries. Hence I don't
think China will go into confrontation mode. This is visible now itself, after recent close door UN meeting
on Kashmir, China has not supported Pakistan on its Kashmir policy.
Hence there is a good chance that India will eventually move into PoK to integrate with J&K.
Coming months will be very action packed and dangerous but India has to go through it to end the
problem permanently.
KishorKatti at 8:03 PM
Share
117 comments:
1.
UnknownSeptember 1, 2019 at 3:06 AM
Narration seems to be a logical conclusion and it is possible that we have to snatch

POK with muscle power as the opponent is a rouge state as such negotiation cannot
be an option.
Reply
Replies
1.
UnknownSeptember 2, 2019 at 1:02 PM
Excellent awesome write up with immense depth n remarkable knowledge.

Appreciate
2.
Seems fine but for two aberrations.

1) Between economic gain and "all weather ally" rubbish will China really
back off from confronting India; that too with Tibet running a Parliament-
in -exile in India?
2) How far the US pressure on China will work?
3.
India, in my opinion should make it clear to China that since they advanced
their CPEC throgh POK (an Indian territory) without having any agreement
with India (which India wd have never agreed) India can destroy the whole
investment of China, or India can allow to complete CPEC but India can
levy Entry/Exit tax on every goods movement (like Panama channel) and
make good money out of Chinese trade and also control it. India has
everything to gain from China's misplaced agression.
4.
SankarjiSeptember 3, 2019 at 10:31 AM
Chinese relationship with Pakistan is strictly based on CPEP advantages.It

has no soft corners for any nations. They are very shrud when it comes to
their economic interests. Viewed from this angle they will not hesitate even
for a second the very minut they get the assurance from India to protect their
CPEP interests.China knows very well that India is a nation of high integrity
and hence will honour international commitments
5.
The problem with the above model is that the pakistani leadership is hardly
logical and mature. Their PM Mr. Khan
may be a bit more mature.
But he hardly counts. The real leaders are the military genarals. And we
know how their think process goes. It is anything but the long term welfare
of Pakistan.
That is the main worry.
6.
Really a brilliant write-up. China is indeed in a precarious position. It's huge

investment is locked in CPEC. It would ensure a respectful and profitable
solution out of this situation.
7.
Dr S. D Chakraborty.September 3, 2019 at 10:43 PM
Very wholesome and logical plausible write up summerizing the
situation.Hopefully world also thinks in het same depth.
8.
tech updates finest foreverSeptember 4, 2019 at 4:07 AM
1. US intent is to withdraw from Afghanistan. Hence, US would want peace

in Afghanistan. India can support this intention, but at what cost? Cost of
war between India and Pakistan with constant threat from China? Or at a
cost of unrest in J&K with US funding Pakistan to spread propaganda
against hindu population of India and then approach UN for legal
resolution? In both the above costs,the strategic buffer POK between India
and Pakistan can be occupied legally by India.
2. For the war option, a place of tactical and strategic importance for
Pakistan has to be captured in a limited warfare scenario, after proper
diplomatic ceasing of the reputation of the country in international forum.
In leu of that small part of land, POK can be bargained.
Reason- Capturing high altitude mountains of so many kilometers in POK
might exhaust all resources with both the countries, this will cost highest
and should be resorted at the end only.Also, China's opportunity to have a
simultaneous limited operation at Siligury corridor to bargain captured POK
from India cannot be negated.
3. For later option of UN resolution- Bigger issue and a crisis situation

should arise at international level. For that unrest in J&K is required. For
that US wishes to fund Pakistan again and hence, the media update of
meeting between Mr Trump and Mr Khan was promulgated. As a
precautionary action article 370 was abducted from Indian Constitution,
which has added legal options to India and leads to no rites situation by
ivoking emergency in the valley.
The same is prominently visible in media handling at international level by
top American and Islamic media houses on the issue.
4. The possibilities to be identified before the action. What if once war

starts, US and Russia remain neutral? What if China take it against their
ideology of world supremacy and cause economical damages to India
simultaneously during war between India and Pakistan?
5. China's take- China is interested in CPEC investment and furtherance till

Iran. Completion of the project will lead to China- Iran collation, which will
not be intended by US. However, that is going to happen without India
Pakistan war also. Hence, China must be having plan to counter India and
US Ally already. Furtherance and sustainability of CPEC ,can be
diplomatically dealt with but at a cost of Chinese presence on both sides of
the country in J&K.
Reply
2.
The plan seems very rational and far sighted.

Highly appreciable.
Whatever the Indian government decide, the people of India are with them in their
plans.
Jai Hind !!!
Reply
Replies
1.
Yes now everything seems possible as government has awaken patriotism

in all and so far have done good for India and they think ahead where all
put full stop they start ...we have complete trust in today's government and
so all have stand strong and that makes lots of difference while taking any
decision..hope all opposing parties too should realise n understand that for
coming generation to have safe and better life we must do this .
Reply
3.
The narrative is logical and diplomatically possible. The entire nation MUST stand
with the government.
I am and will
Reply
4.
Very good information in a very simple and understandable language.

Reply
5.
TheRealSlimKDSeptember 1, 2019 at 6:16 AM
we will take POK? You should speak to some army officer who has spent >10 years
along the Rajouri/Poonch Axis and then maybe a few in Gurez.
WE will be lucky to advance 15Km into POK.
Reply
Replies
1.
SujeetSeptember 2, 2019 at 2:46 AM
This comment has been removed by the author.
2.
A very good and logical analysis of the situation.Sincererly hope it happens

that way.But the main worry is the sliding economic situation and the so
called opposition parties who for petty political interests speak in the
language condusive to the enemy.
3.
A very good and logical analysis of the situation.Sincererly hope it happens

that way.But the main worry is the sliding economic situation and the so
called opposition parties who for petty political interests speak in the
language condusive to the enemy.
Reply
6.
SingamSeptember 1, 2019 at 7:00 AM
Imran Khan is a sportsman and not a politician. Pakistanis choose him as PM is

wrong on their part. Imran's dream is fulfilled but not Pakistanis.
They never ever change for good. By birth criminilism, bloodshed, haterate towards
India, Hindustani and many other reasons.
Our own people are flooding money to Pakistan for unwarranted activities.
Knowingly about the present situation if they stop supporting, they will survive
from law else die till death in prison.
Each and every one who is supporting pak will suffer and new generation will
change the country to HINDUSTAN again.
Evey Indian should support our PM to make the country world number one by
2024.
Hope for the best.

Reply
Replies
1.
subbarayan.K.RSeptember 3, 2019 at 10:02 PM
I second this as it is logical

Reply
7.
Annexing POK is good for India, but in the international level we may get a bad
name that we are aggressing . Besides the population is 80% Muslims . they never
would support India. We must strategically plan to get over it. (Mayavaram sv Balu
1.9.2019)
Reply
Replies
1.
HIGH TIMESeptember 1, 2019 at 11:33 PM
Annexing is not the right word. It should be Liberating our part of land from
clutches of Pakistan.
2.
Focus on OMSeptember 2, 2019 at 10:49 PM
Lookout for India setting up a Military base in Afghanistan as a precursor.

Reply
8.
Good analysis.. but the cobra effect is not discussed..
All are realistic but when comes to decision considering the interest of nation, the
most remote chances must be considered and such enemy powers must be defused
before action..
Reply
9.
The lucid analysis seems to be feasible on table. However, the pakis' are not foolish.
Once India enters Afgasthan through POK, it is very easy for Indian Military to
open new front on western side og Pak. Baluch will get ready assistance from Indian
Forces and may get liberated easily from Pak. Secondly instead of fighting on
eastern and western front and getting sandwiched Pak prefer to opt Nuclear
deterrent. As it may think that, living with or without POK it's end is sure. If it
decides to vanish from Globe, why not die with Nuclear disaster. Opting either
option, it's death is sure. Secondly, China will not allow India to acquire POK, else
it's very purpose of looting Baluch rich natural resources, will get defeated. The
repayment of huge investment made in CPEC will be beyond sight.
In any case, chances of Third World War seems to be indispensable. It will start
between China & Pak Vs India. India wikk pretend to be on defensive mode at
Primary Stage. However, seeing economic and strategic move of China in speedy
advancement, USA & Russia may join together and stop China in advancing
further. And at the last India will again enter in the Big War, will not stop till China
get defeated permanently. PAK may get swallowed up partly by India and partly
by Russia keeping an eye on rich natural treasure hidden in Baluch. This is what I
forecast.
Reply
Replies
1.
evs nairSeptember 1, 2019 at 1:07 PM
2.
The last Para, highly improbable.
3.
SankarjiSeptember 3, 2019 at 10:39 AM
India defeating China or vice-versa in a direct conflict is not M9even a

distant possibility in the present context of international relationship s.
4.
Very thoughtful.
5.
tech updates finest foreverSeptember 4, 2019 at 2:59 AM

Reply
10.
Very far fetched

Reply
11.
Mr. Kisher Katti has rightly assessed the situation. the possibility of war is very less
especially in the prevailing circumstances of Pakistan being on the verge of
bankruptcy. the interference by international community is ruled out at this stage.
if India works on political diplomacy then pok will be Indian territory easily. War
is not good for india too. Hope to solve issue very soon.
Reply
Replies
1.
But they have to take some drastic steps to live upto the expectations of the
people so as to save face. Their PM being an aggressive fast bowler his
mindset will be offensive. They will have to make a u-turn and become very
brainy to avoid such a scenario because going into war will not do any good
to them.
2.
Why we should be pawn of America? The present trade war could be bigger
game between China and America. If China is successful for alternate
market for its products, its economy will be free from its dependence on
America. China has highest investment in America securities. So it can also
bring on pressure on America. What is great advantage to China to support
above theory?
3.
Why we should be pawn of America? The present trade war could be bigger
game between China and America. If China is successful for alternate
market for its products, its economy will be free from its dependence on
America. China has highest investment in America securities. So it can also
bring on pressure on America. What is great advantage to China to support
above theory?
Reply
12.
AnalystSeptember 1, 2019 at 9:54 AM
Must say that you have beautifully explained the likely or probable course of action
by India. Keep going great. However, what is your thought process on time it might
take for it to get executed can be deliberated.
Regards
Indian-Share-Tips.com
Reply
13.
Beautifully explained article,very bold actions required by govt of the day.Govt

may have out the box solution seeing their past actions.in any case nation stands
together for any bold action by the government. ✌
Reply
14.
Why US is so eagar to vacate Afghanistan

Reply
Replies
1.
Obvious, tired of remote op

Reply
15.
M S ManianSeptember 1, 2019 at 11:59 AM
The major area of concern which is not factored in this whole article is very local
people loyalty which is suspect. The reason for restrictions are local people have
loyalty to neighbour because of religion and our administration should address and
take people into confidence which means half of the battle is won.
Reply
16.
It is an excellent analytical narrative. Deserves congrats. Though PoK and CoK are
essentially original parts of J&K, they have since long been separated from India
politically, whomsoever one attributes the separation. Nevertheless, India does
have the claim over it's legal lien on them. If India unitedly and resolvedly upholds
this claim, she will be morally rightful to retrieve them by any means. Though it is
so, to do so after passage of the long spell of six to seven decades, it would certainly
need some more rightful motive which should morally disuade many a eyebrow.
The appropriate motive is certainly there. It only needs to be tactfully presented
diplomatically.
I wish the Indian government the best in this regard.
Reply
Replies
1.
AlibhaiSeptember 1, 2019 at 1:50 PM
India has moral and legal claim. China has claimed Tibet despite more than
a century of Tibet being a free territory.
Reply
17.
It needs further analysis to strategic implications and international order to support

it.
Reply
18.
Excellent analysis and simple language that can be understood even by ordinary
person like self. However final conclusions more like, not only author's, but every
Indian's wish. God Almighty only knows how events may unfold and even as we
boldly face the enemy at the warfront, those of us inland pray for the safety of each
and every of our brave jawans. Back to reality, China has relied too much on
obor/cpec. If it goes, Xi/11/half Nelson for the world too has to go, therefore will
let go only at great collateral damage to India. For USA, obor has to go as otherwise,
if it is success will make China supercede USA as No.1 nation. PoK will become
the theatre of war with Pak&China on one side and India backed by Western powers
on the other side. India has to fight its own battle for survival and cannot expect
anybody else to do it for them. Or is that really so? No India will be strongly backed
by Israel, Japan and South Korea. If C&P wins these countries too will have
difficult times.
Reply
Replies
1.
Bold and constructive action plan is must to save our country people and
environment
Reply
19.
Excellent narration and logical conclusion. The author has done very good research
and consolidated a most probable theory connecting many dots. Yet, is Pakistan
needed to thought of as such a small country under pressure seems to be
underestimating them. They have completely unpredictable most of the time. China
has been pressured up by US on international trade and would definitely want to
hamper the growth of India somehow and could be looking for the right options.
China is also strong in military and the joint action with Pak against India they may
not win in the long run however India might have many things to lose. Our economy
is also in doldrums and needed to consider the long term impacts. Yet one time
resolutions to such cross country situations are always good. Just a question in the
past late Atalji has also been on the defensive and was the same fear, don't know...
Reply
Replies
1.
SujeetSeptember 2, 2019 at 3:03 AM
With due respect Atalji was also defensive and commited mistake of
accepting formally that Tibet is part of China.
India should support claim of Independent Tibet to pressurise china
Reply
20.
I think Pakistan won't only lose POK, Pakistan would disintegrate as a country in
many states. Many of them would want to integrate with India. Imran Khan is the
last PM !
Reply
21.
Ravi BaliSeptember 1, 2019 at 8:00 PM
One option not considered by the author is the possibility of Israel and USA taking
out Pakistani nuclear option with backing from India. That will make our task risk
free and much easier.
Reply
Replies
1.
S S Rao NamanaSeptember 2, 2019 at 5:46 AM
All that Glitter is not Hold. But seems to workable according to the article.
I think locals will support us
Reply
22.
Excellent narration and logical conclusion. Article 370 is just the beginning to
convert present line of control to International border. Our intention should be to
take over POK and have bargaining power when it comes to CPEC wherein Chinese
have strategic interests. Kudos to strategic thinkers and we all should support
present government in handling the present situation.
Reply
23.
ShreerangSeptember 1, 2019 at 9:37 PM
Great possibility,
However ignores the reality of physical gradient where POK is higher and it will
have incredibly high human costs to grab that portion of land forcibly
Reply
24.
Good narrative.. best course of action for India.. continue bleeding Pakistan
economically.. engage them in Arms race.. in long run..Pakistan with its weak
economy will go bankrupt.. simultaneously India needs to build n strengthen its spy
network on the area of interest.. to build narrative against the government
establishment.. as it is people in POK n Baluchistan are up with arms against the
Pakistan Army..things will fall in place in short span of time.. confident the current
dispensation under Modi/Doval are working on these lines..
Reply
25.
Abhinav SrivastavaSeptember 1, 2019 at 10:33 PM
The author done the scenario painting very imaginatively.

The options appear beyond the realm of practicality. Pak
Army for one would love India walking down this path. They
would like to trap and cause severe attrition to lndian Army
(IA) not only in Afghanistan (Af) but also along stretched line
of communication passing through POK. Force lA to use air
head to sustain its fighting forces and cause severe attrition
to IAF elements in doing so.
Pak has been waging proxy war in J&K which has proved
to be a low cost option for bleeding India. This has
been possible due to their proximity spatially as also
with section of population. Imagine the damage they
could cause to occupation force with large parts of Af
in Talibani- Pak control.
The good part is that India is known to think through an
action rather than jumping into it head long.
To me personally this sort of thought process might
have an ISPR seed.
Lets be careful.
Reply
Replies
1.
Very good logical explanation but there are lots of if & buts
2.
A far fetched theory by a dreamer. Hope you can write something realistic
not a filmy story and pass it off as a political analysis. Never underestimate
your enemy
3.
A far fetched theory by a dreamer. Hope you can write something realistic
not a filmy story and pass it off as a political analysis. Never underestimate
your enemy
Reply
26.
Himalayan WandererSeptember 1, 2019 at 10:43 PM
If this plan has to work out, then pushing Pakistan into deeper financial crisis is
important. We may whether there is an implicit understanding between India and
USA for executing this plan if Pakistan is successfully moved to FATF blacklist in
mid October.
Reply
27.
SatheesanSeptember 1, 2019 at 11:13 PM
India lost the opportunity in Afghanistan last time. Do you think this time India
take lead role in Afgan. The meeting last week Taliban did not invite India. Unless
US make it a point to keep India in the front as the peace keeping force, we will not
have an edge in the strategy visualizer by the blogger
Reply
28.
THE ACESSTION OF ENTIRE JK IS LEAGAL AND PAKISTAN ILLEAGALY

WANTED TO GRAB KASHMIR BY FORCE .THE UN RESOLUTION OF AUG
48 CLEARLY ASK PAKISTAN TO VACATE POK AND ONLY INDIA
FORCES WILL REMAIN IN JK BUT PAKISTAN NEVER IMPLIMENTED
THE RESOLUTION .THIS A APROPRIATE TIME TO CAPTURE POK BY
FORCE OR THROUGH MEDIIATION OF US AND OTHER COUNTRIES TO
PRESSURISE PAKISTAN AND CHINA ALSO MUST COOPRATE WITH
INDIA FOR MUTUAL BENIFIT
Reply
29.
Well written article. However I think that it is impossible for India to acquire POK.
Pakistan is an ideological nation, not a logical or security seeking nation. Its
children are taught in school, "Kashmir Banega Pakistan". Indeed the "K" in
Pakistan stands for Kashmir. So it is really impossible for any government to give
up POK.
Reply
30.
P.MaheshSeptember 2, 2019 at 1:55 AM
Wow really superb analysis.. Salutes to you..

Reply
31.
US military has already voiced it's support for India when Rajnath Singh said that
talks in future will be on POK only. India has already asked Pak to vacate POK in
1994 through a resolution and the present government is going to follow up on
taking back POK from Pak as per the statements of Rajnath Singh. The assessment
in this blog is spot on.
Reply
32.
This scenario is wishful thinking as Pakistan’s Army will never fight a war nor tone
down its strategy of fighting a low cost war. Our leadership hasn’t got the guts to
wage war against Pakistan.
We lost a golden opportunity to liberate Gilgit Baltistan in 1999 because Atalji
banned our Armed Forces from crossing the border resulting in much more
casualties to our troops. We need to liberate Balochistan which Pakistan captured
in 1948 and reacquire Gilgit Baltistan. This will leave a narrow truncated Pakistan
with no depth.
While war is an expensive proposition it is definitely cheaper than bleeding heavily
for decades as we are suffering.
Reply
33.
Logically I convinced with this situation but things are not so simple.Pajistan Govt
has a little control over Military and terrorist.Inspite of taking good decision govt
of Pakistan can't take individual decision without consent of military.Nucleur
weapon may go in hand if Terrorist. Pakistan is a country if mindless politicians.If
they will fail war they will use Nuclear bomb without thing it's result.Many times
they don't thing about their lives.
Reply
34.
V SriniSeptember 2, 2019 at 4:51 AM
POK in every sense of the word belong to INDIA since it was and continue to be
an illegally occupied land. By any International Law or Norm, India has the full
and total rights to get it back; my view is a forth possibility, file a case against Pakis
to leave POK - this must keep China away from the fold and all their clandestine
manoeuvres with Pakis.
Reply
35.
RajeevSeptember 2, 2019 at 5:15 AM
Well written Blog. Compliments to Mr Kishor. Let me try and list out a few facts:
1. Taking POK militarily is not as simple as what is being made out here. I speak
from personal experience. Unlike what a lot of people may like to believe Pak army
is quite professional and well trained. They may he corrupt and thier Generals may
harbour delusions of their importance in the overall scheme of things, but as an
army it is still a strong and professional force.
2. There are too many geopolitical issues and global realpolitik is never so straight
forward and simple.
3. One must also remember the postition/affiliation of the local Kashmiris. Even in
POK the locals may not be very fond of Pak Govt but I do not think that they will
simply allow Indian forces to take over the area. Let's not forget that we are talking
of an area greater than 86,000 sq kms! Out of this area Gilgit Baltistan alone
accounts for approx 73,000 sq kms.
4. Indian Army strength and numbers notwithstanding, the logistics involved in
marching through such a large area are not something which has been ever factored
into The plans. This is because the costs involved in creating the infrastructure to
make such a proposition viable will be humungous.
5. China cannot and will not sit back allowing India to grab the initiative, US
interests notwithstanding. In fact if such a scenario came to pass, I feel China will
find this a perfect opportunity to challenge the US hegemony and will fight to
defend POK and its occupation of Shakasgam valley
Reply
36.
KumarSeptember 2, 2019 at 6:55 AM
Very true! To approach afghanistan through pok for india or the US would be pretty
tedious so it is more probable that as subramaniam swamy often days and the west
would have also decided that Pakistan in the present geographical form and a rogue,
jihadist powerful and destructive army has to be dismantled along with its nuclear
weapons and the us
US is quite capable of making it happen without much military action!
A straight route through sind, Karachi etc., and baluchistan to afghanistan will
ensure effective indian rule in afghanistan!
Contrary to the west the indian approach with a failed defeated pakistan will make
the Taliban talk peace but the powers that be must negotiate or will be able to
negotiate total disarmament ! Fighting (guerilla) being their strength must be
avoided while weakening their ability to fight!
Knowing amit doval this will mostly be his line of thought! Thus pok will restore
indias longstanding stature as the true inheritors of maharaja accession the
dismantling of pakistan will ensure final solution to terrorism on indian soil!
Reply
37.
We must not feel it is cake walk into POK. Like USA & allies are desparate to get
out after over decade of engagement. Any endeavour in this way will be very
risky...guys laughing will be USA & China.
Reply
38.
How do I subscribe to your blogs?

Reply
39.
PraveenSeptember 2, 2019 at 9:07 AM
What about China occupied Kashmir ?

Reply
Replies
1.
ChaliyaSeptember 2, 2019 at 6:13 PM
China will ceede it to India in the bargain of India protecting Chinese infra
in POK portion of CPEC
Reply
40.
Vijay VeerSeptember 2, 2019 at 5:36 PM
Not possible because India has to be stronger both militarily and economically.
With the present military strength India cannot achieve its object of taking POK
and assisting US in Afghanistan.
Reply
41.
Very useful post to all sections of people including students.My wish is to be

friendly with China but to keep at bay, have closed door meetings on monthly basis
to start with. Hope pak's expected cries will subside in due course if time. Thier
economy will be weaker in months to come. We should start a psychological war
by inciting Baluch and POK for annexation to India. They should go to UN for this.
India can conveniently.......
Reply
42.
DograSeptember 2, 2019 at 6:37 PM
Why not get Chinese occupied Kashmir liberated as well as reversal of Tibet policy
and Tibet regains its independence.
Reply
43.
Its not so easy as we expecting

China will not sit quite but 370 is the right step from Indian Govt,Pok Govt knows
no easy to fight with India.they also be planing as per thier capability.
Reply
44.
Captain S.R. BhateSeptember 2, 2019 at 8:10 PM
Good write up. Seems to have taken inspiration from Dr. Subramanian Swami.
DO NOT JUST TALK ABOUT PAKISTAN'S WEAKNESSES....TALK OF OUR

OWN.
We are not in position to take up any adventure in POK or, in Afghanistan. Our
military is poorly equipped and logistically handicapped. We too cannot support a
war for more than 20 days without suffering financial reverses. If we are fortunate,
we might be in a position to dream about such a scenario in 2030-40 but now, it's
just flights of imagination.
So, instead of thinking about such misadventures and far fetched scenarios, GET
DOWN TO WORK AND THINK ABOUT ASSIMILATING KASHMIR INTO
INDIAN MAINSTREAM POSITIVELY AND GAINFULLY FOR ALL THE
STAKEHOLDERS.
Reply
45.
If we are thinking of going to take over Pok as a step. Don't you think that first step
should be to control the water from India going into Pakistan which is I think about
4/5 or 1/3 of river water from india
Reply
Replies
1.
subbarayan.K.RSeptember 3, 2019 at 10:13 PM
It shd not limit it to water but complete ban on food, vegetable, medicine is
also required to break the back bone of porkistan
Reply
46.
rajamedhaSeptember 2, 2019 at 9:02 PM
Day dreaming. Do we really feel that liberating or taking back POK will be a 'cake
walk'? Let's not live in fools paradise. If pressurised into a corner, Pakistani
Generals or leadership won't hesitate to use the nuclear option, as consequences
will be of least importance to them. But we should be weary of such extreme step
by Pakistanis.
Reply
47.
bhagirathi sadashivSeptember 2, 2019 at 9:24 PM
The analysis is too simplistic and difficult to obtain. The best thing would be to
manage our own part of Kashmir and provide such good administration that it
becomes the example of good governance to the PoK. With such stark differences,
unhinging starts with flashpoints erupting within Pakistan itself. There far too many
cultural differences in Pakistan that threaten it from within -Baloch, Sindh,
Pakhtoons - despite its monotheistic status. We must plat upon the culturak
differences and support the freedom movements within Pakistan.
Reply
48.
I think that real person responsible for 370 was Neharu. His blunders are still
haunting Bharat. Maharaja Harisingh also owned Tibet. just captured it in
Reply
49.
Reply
50.
Reply
51.
Looks like the RSS propaganda machine is at work.

Reply
52.
jcraghubhatSeptember 2, 2019 at 11:34 PM
Too simplistic. Instead, pl allow Pak to dig its own grave by its own
maladministration, international botch-ups, internal uprisings etc. May be India can
help its acceleration by building economic blockade, starving of water, stoppage of
trade relations/ exchange of arts/ playing sports etc while being empathetic to
medical tourism. Meanwhile, wholeheartedly, support smoother and faster
integration of JnK with mainland India. Sooner,PoK will merge with India without
a bullet being exchanged. Patience is also an aggression.
Reply
53.
The analysis by kisbore is multi- hypothetical. Also Pak army is not 6.5 million. It
is 0.65 million or 6.5 Lakhs. Propably a typo in the blog.
Reply
54.
Very good analysis geographically, politically, power basis and international
relationship wise. It may also work as feedback to the concerned persons. This is
possible only with Great P.M. Modi. Good luck Modi and Good Luck India.
Reply
55.
Excellent
Reply
56.
Prachi JoshiSeptember 3, 2019 at 3:06 AM
Thanks for sharing such great information!!!!

Reply
57.
Ramana RajgopaulSeptember 3, 2019 at 3:51 AM
Very interesting. It would help getting your posts if you could insert an option to
receive alerts by email whenever you post.
Reply
58.
It's huge embarassment for PAK army.It may lose its relevance. Snatching POK is
whisful thinking. With China's interest it could be impossible.
Reply
59.
Everything is fine till the script on recapture of POK. No country incuding US will
go along with India on this plan. Then militarily its not just a huge ask but well nigh
impossible. India has to stop dreaming about it and concentrate in putting the house
in order on the Indian part of Kashmir. Resolution is best by accepting the status
quo position.
Reply
60.
GaneshSeptember 3, 2019 at 5:43 AM
Very interesting write up with indepth analysis.

Reply
61.
surya kumarSeptember 3, 2019 at 5:46 AM
What about the war

Reply
62.
leadershipcentreSeptember 3, 2019 at 6:11 AM
Hopefully PEACE will prevaiL

Reply
63.
EmmaSeptember 3, 2019 at 6:23 AM
Correction on last para
It should be “make” not made
Instead, China and India can “made” a deal,

Reply
64.
EmmaSeptember 3, 2019 at 6:25 AM
All positive thinking but first we have to win the people of J&K
Reply
65.
Abhijeet BhattacharyaSeptember 3, 2019 at 6:41 AM
Nicely analysed and well drafted article. Thanks for sharing.
Reply
66.
BakarSeptember 3, 2019 at 6:45 AM
One line of probability is missing!!. What if we stop at present stage & not move
ahead to integrate the PoK with India. It would save war & possibly huge war
related losses to all. Yet, the very basic reason for Pak military existence would
erode as the "Ghost" of special status of a disputed territory would vanish. When
Pak military loses significance, Pak would disintegrate in the medium term
Reply
67.
If US can't control or convince North Korea, how can we expect it to convince

Pakistan and China without considering alternative possibilities?
Reply
68.
GangsSeptember 3, 2019 at 8:14 AM
An interesting article, which I feel, should send movie screen play writers scurrying
for a copy. The offensive plans are fallacious at best & is devoid of any strategic
military analysis. The scenario painted as perception & action by international
players with vested interest is myopic & as seen through our wishful thinking
glasses.
It fails muster to even gain consideration by strategic war planning cell.
Reply
69.
Nikhil SrinivasSeptember 3, 2019 at 8:35 AM
The analysis appears to be logical. But it is very hard to believe whether India would
venture into Afghan affairs.
Reply
70.
RaviSeptember 3, 2019 at 10:41 AM
What will happen to the people living in pok?will the be driven to Pakistan?
Reply
71.
RANASeptember 3, 2019 at 11:57 AM
It is not clear whether US amd western world will take India's side in war to win
POK with condition that India will there after send army to Afghanistan to control
Taliban and ISIS. It is sucidal to rule Afghanistan where Britsh, Russians and now
Americals fail in this task.
Reply
72.
RajivSeptember 3, 2019 at 12:52 PM
If US is targeting access to Afghanistan, the local route is balochistan.
1. The is a strong legal basis. It was an independent nation which was forcibly
annexed. It can be legally declared independent or Pak asked to conduct plebiscite
to prove its credibility as a champion of right to self determination.
2. US can directly control Balochistan a through defence umbrella it offered to

Middle East countries. In comparison, the is little chance of India sitting in the lap
of USA and antagonizing China and Russia.
3. Taliban wil need Indian market to sustain economically. Pak is bankrupt.

Independence of Baluchistan suits Taliban as well.
Reply
73.
SuchandraSeptember 3, 2019 at 8:05 PM
Far fetched.there are no permanent allies in politics. There are many contradicting
factors that will affect the outcome: oic is not taken into account here;in islam
brotherhood begins by sacrificing self! Trump may take turns and twists on
whim;will fifth columnists keep sleeping(fires are raging in every corner from
Delhi to brazil)!
Reply
74.
KaustavSeptember 3, 2019 at 9:07 PM
The solutions to these being readied and it is not what people are discussing above
& about that Maverick Moron Subramaniam about help from the US to recover
POK as quid pro quo for boots on the ground in Afghanistan. It is a typically
moronic observation by a certified MORON. Of the 4 countries most likely to be
negatively affected by the Afghan Taliban (Russia, Uzbekistan, China & India),
only Russia & India have the reqd capacity for stepping up to the challenge & for
this to happen, India requires to establish direct geographical contiguity with
Afghanistan’s Wakhan Corridor & this is possible only when the entire PoK
inclusive of Gilgit-Baltistan is under India’s control. And to make this happen, what
India needs is not US support, but the support of Russia & Central Asian states like
Uzbekistan & Tajikistan. That’s why one will notice that since last March, India’s
bilateral interactions with Uzbekistan have increased manifold.
Reply
75.
KaustavSeptember 3, 2019 at 9:09 PM
Afghan Forces are doing a fine job of fighting Taliban, ISI & Pakistanis. India can
give increased support in form of weapons & training. Of course, Land access to
Wakhan Corridor Afghanistan via recovery of Gilgit Baltistan would certainly help
for logistical & moral support😀😀
Reply
76.
Badaa SaabSeptember 4, 2019 at 12:28 AM
You have used the phrase "the final solution" (probably innocently)...
Pls Google "the final solution"..................
Reply
77.
Very thoughtful...kishoreji.
Reply
78.
I have read this article. It's a very good analysis and I agree to the line of thinking
of the author. However I want to add one more element into the analysis.
In case China do not cede to the proposal of India on CPEC then both China and
India will be ready to head on conflict. We leave it here at this moment.
Let us examine that under this situation what would be the other options for these
two countries! As well as what would be the stand of other nations on the Kashmir
issue that's going to be very important. The stand of Russia on the issue of Kashmir
in case of possible head on conflict with the India-China is going to be very
important and perhaps the decisive factor.
We need to remember that Russia is a common ally of both countries India and
China.
on one hand India is a very old ally of Russia and have a strong bonding in the area
of supply of defence equipments and long ties on military, trade, political and
cultural fronts with Russia. At the same time Russia has a treaty signed with the
China as well titled as " treaty for good neighbourliness and friendly cooperation"
in the year 2001. Important to note here is that Russia and China are neighbour and
they share long land border between them.since 2001 after signing the aforesaid
treaty Russia and China have been carrying a warm relationship and have no
disputes amongst them. They also have a strong trade, political and cultural ties
between them. Basically both countries follow the philosophy of communism.
We all know that Mr Putin have strongly supported India on the issue of Kashmir
and without quivering made an announcement that Kashmir is an internal issue of
India. It is a big, a very big step of Russia.
In fact if Russia sticks to this stand of it the same will raise a tremendous pressure
on China. The pressure of US on China where has it's own weightage, the weightage
of pressure of Russia would be different of being a neighbour to China apart from
being a yet another powerful country decorated with advanced weapon systems and
massive military size.
Now again we come back to the point of available possible options!!!
At the juncture where the majority of countries maintain that Kashmir including
POK is the territory that belongs to India, such a scenario opens a window for India
to approach International Court of Justice against the illegal occupation of Pakistan
on POK which is also against the instrument of accession signed by the Maharaja
of Jammu & Kashmir with India.
To my analysis and acumen this preposition which is highly rationale and peaceful
is going to be triggered at an appropriate point of time by India.
Reply
79.
K.V.Rajagopal 14.30 datd 3rd Sept 2019

An excellent out of the box analysis of the master stroke of Modi in abrogating
Article 370, making the Pakistanis feel foolish and helpless, because Article 370,
about which they had been ranting
(like dogs barking from within the compound), no more exists. So Modi in one
stroke has taken the wind out of their sails. The other proposal is to invade and take
back POK, which is actually ours, illegally occupied by Paki invaders in the
aftermath of the
partition. Maroof Raza the well-known defense analyst has been crying hoarse for
years that the Paki rant demanding implementation of the UN resolution on
plebiscite has become redundant because the condition precedent for the
implementation of the resolution was that the raiders vacate POK illegally occupied
by Pakistan, which they have not done. Leaving aside the lack of proper
administration and human rights violations in POK, Pakistan is in effect in illegal
occupation of our territory, which we have every right to take back. Yes this is not
going to be an easy job and will need skillful diplomacy, PR among the malcontent
residents, setting them off against those who favour Pakistan. To me it appears that
the Pakis have been caught on the wrong foot by this crafty move by Modi and are
genuinely rattled. Good and logical analysis. China after playing friends with India
(recall the Hindi-Chini bhai bhai slogans of Nehru days) have become vicious to
join hands with Pakistan purely for their on selfish reasons, principally the CPEC.
Hope what the blogger says becomes a fact.
Reply
80.
Shivang JoshiSeptember 4, 2019 at 3:49 AM
Very thoughtful write up and in International relations and life nothing is

impossible, however,war doesn't seem to be a near possibility. What India has done
is ..it has kept Pakistan on the back foot. Earlier India used to be on backdoor. Now
Pakistan rather than crying Kashmir, will be crying POK. We will keep them
guessing and engaged for a long time and simultaneously keep the issue of Gilgit-
Baltistan alive. Will wait for the right time when thritinternal issues reach high.
India would not go into war on its own but wants situations so that world forces
India to take action. So overall good for India but face to face war doesn't seem in
next 1 year or so. Shekhar
Reply
81.
Dr GeetaSeptember 4, 2019 at 5:04 AM
Logical
Analytical
Realistic
Hats off to you for presenting it in such a simplified manner !!
Reply
82.
Very logical and moreover convincing. Nevertheless, let us presume that matters
don't worsen and hope for a better peaceful tomorrow without any blood shed
Reply
83.
I do not agree.
LOC will become the International boundary.
India will never fight in Afghanistan as it is a death-knell for Indian forces.
Today's POK is a huge settlement of Punjabi Pakistanis which India would never
want to assimilate.
Reply
84.
leonSeptember 4, 2019 at 8:31 AM
Not just pok, it is Baluchistan that is also a worry for pakis. In the event of a war,
india will seek to dismember even Baluchistan from the clutches of pak. US may
not see the utility of this move but indian enthusiasm for it would finally convince
US as pak with or without Baluchistan makes no difference to US either way.
The time is ripe for a final solution of Pakistan, not just pok.
Reply
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Then Why Pakistan is So rattled?

Let's understand how international body is thinking?

What will Pakistan do if India takes a military action in PoK?

Narration seems to be a logical conclusion and it is possible that we have to snatch

Excellent awesome write up with immense depth n remarkable knowledge.

Seems fine but for two aberrations.

Chinese relationship with Pakistan is strictly based on CPEP advantages.It

Really a brilliant write-up. China is indeed in a precarious position. It's huge

1. US intent is to withdraw from Afghanistan. Hence, US would want peace

3. For later option of UN resolution- Bigger issue and a crisis situation

4. The possibilities to be identified before the action. What if once war

5. China's take- China is interested in CPEC investment and furtherance till

The plan seems very rational and far sighted.

Yes now everything seems possible as government has awaken patriotism

Very good information in a very simple and understandable language.

This comment has been removed by the author.

A very good and logical analysis of the situation.Sincererly hope it happens

A very good and logical analysis of the situation.Sincererly hope it happens

Imran Khan is a sportsman and not a politician. Pakistanis choose him as PM is

Hope for the best.

I second this as it is logical

Lookout for India setting up a Military base in Afghanistan as a precursor.

Good analysis.. but the cobra effect is not discussed..

The last Para, highly improbable.

India defeating China or vice-versa in a direct conflict is not M9even a

This comment has been removed by the author.

Very far fetched

Beautifully explained article,very bold actions required by govt of the day.Govt

Why US is so eagar to vacate Afghanistan

Obvious, tired of remote op

It needs further analysis to strategic implications and international order to support

The author done the scenario painting very imaginatively.

THE ACESSTION OF ENTIRE JK IS LEAGAL AND PAKISTAN ILLEAGALY

Wow really superb analysis.. Salutes to you..

How do I subscribe to your blogs?

What about China occupied Kashmir ?

Very useful post to all sections of people including students.My wish is to be

Its not so easy as we expecting

DO NOT JUST TALK ABOUT PAKISTAN'S WEAKNESSES....TALK OF OUR

Looks like the RSS propaganda machine is at work.

Thanks for sharing such great information!!!!

Very interesting write up with indepth analysis.

What about the war

Hopefully PEACE will prevaiL

Correction on last para

It should be “make” not made

Instead, China and India can “made” a deal,

If US can't control or convince North Korea, how can we expect it to convince

If US is targeting access to Afghanistan, the local route is balochistan.

2. US can directly control Balochistan a through defence umbrella it offered to

3. Taliban wil need Indian market to sustain economically. Pak is bankrupt.

Now again we come back to the point of available possible options!!!

K.V.Rajagopal 14.30 datd 3rd Sept 2019

Very thoughtful write up and in International relations and life nothing is

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