Sei sulla pagina 1di 128

Technology and market perspective

for future Value Added Materials


Final Report from
Oxford Research AS

Research and
Innovation
EUROPEAN COMMISSION

Directorate-General for Research and Innovation


Directorate G — Industrial Technologies
Unit G3 — Materials

E-mail: RTD-NMP-MATERIALS@ec.europa.eu

Contact: Helge WESSEL

European Commission
B-1049 Brussels

E-mail: helge.wessel@ec.europa.eu
EUROPEAN COMMISSION

Technology and market


perspective for future
Value Added Materials
Final Report
from Oxford Research AS

Edited by

Dr Helge Wessel
and
Dr Renzo Tomellini

Directorate-General for Research and Innovation


2012 Industrial Technologies EUR 25027 EN
EUROPE DIRECT is a service to help you find answers
to your questions about the European Union

Freephone number (*):


00 800 6 7 8 9 10 11
(*) Certain mobile telephone operators do not allow access to 00 800 numbers
or these calls may be billed

LEGAL NOTICE
Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use which might
be made of the following information.
The views expressed in this publication are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of
the European Commission.

More information on the European Union is available on the Internet (http://europa.eu).


Cataloguing data can be found at the end of this publication.
Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2012
ISBN 978-92-79-22003-6
doi 10.2777/95202

© European Union, 2012


Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged.
Picture © Fotolia, 2012
Printed in Belgium
Printed on elemental chlorine-free bleached paper (ECF)
Oxford Research was established in 1995 and is part of the Oxford Group. The company
is a full service research company offering research and management consultancy ser-
vices within the areas of international development, science & innovation, business
development and welfare issues.

Oxford Research also carries out evaluations (especially management evaluations of


programmes and organizations) and analyzes, and offers consultancy on strategy. The
research company combines academic depth, excellence in communication and strate-
gic understanding. Currently Oxford Research has branches in Denmark, Norway and
Sweden, and has wide experience in conducting European research projects.

Oxford Research is also research partner of the European Network for Social and Eco-
nomic Research (ENSR).

See our website for more information: www.oxfordresearch.eu

Authors: Bart Romanow, Mariana Gustafsson from Oxford Research AS


with expert support from Mattias Karlsson Dinnetz, PhD.

Oxford Research:

NORWAY DENMARK
Oxford Research AS Oxford Research A/S
Østre Strandgate 1, Falkoner Allé 20, 4. sal
4610 Kristiansand, 2000 Frederiksberg C
Norge Danmark
Telefon: (+47) 40 00 57 93 Telefon: (+45) 33 69 13 69
post@oxford.no Fax: (+45) 33 69 13 33
office@oxfordresearch.dk

SWEDEN BELGIUM
Oxford Research AB Oxford Research
Box 7578 c/o ENSR
Norrlandsgatan 12 5, Rue Archimède, Box 4
103 93 Stockholm 1000 Brussels
Telefon: (+46) 702965449 Phone +32 2 5100884
office@oxfordresearch.se Fax +32 2 5100885
secretariat@ensr.eu

3
4
Table of Contents
Chapter 1. Executive summary / Conclusions ............................................................................... 9

Chapter 2. Introduction to the study ............................................................................................. 14


2.1 Materials technology and advancements in engineering ............................................... 14
2.2 Study context and approach ........................................................................................... 15

Chapter 3. Definition and classification........................................................................................ 16


3.1 A general reflection on ‘value’ ........................................................................................ 16
3.2 Value Added Materials versus commodity materials ...................................................... 16
3.3 VAM properties based on literature review .................................................................... 17
3.4 Definition of VAMs based on interviews ......................................................................... 21
3.5 VAM definition ................................................................................................................ 22
3.6 What shall be not considered Value Added Material ...................................................... 22
3.7 Classification .................................................................................................................. 23

Chapter 4. Qualitative technology assessment and perspective in the social and


economic context ......................................................................................................... 27
4.1 Grand Challenges .......................................................................................................... 27
4.1.1 Health, demographic change and wellbeing .................................................................. 28
4.1.2 Food security and the bio-based economy .................................................................... 30
4.1.3 Secure, clean and efficient energy ................................................................................. 31
4.1.4 Smart, green and integrated transport ........................................................................... 33
4.1.5 Supply of raw materials .................................................................................................. 33
4.1.6 Resource efficiency and climate action .......................................................................... 36
4.1.7 Inclusive, innovative and secure societies ..................................................................... 38
4.2 Business challenges ....................................................................................................... 40

Chapter 5. Qualitative and quantitative Value Added Materials market analysis by sector .... 44
5.1 General investment split ................................................................................................. 44
5.2 Overview of sectoral investment willingness .................................................................. 47
5.3 Findings from interviews ................................................................................................. 49
5.4 Emerging technologies within materials ......................................................................... 51

5
Chapter 6. Quantitative Value Added Materials market overview .............................................. 55
6.1 VAMs market size and development .............................................................................. 58
6.2 Energy sector ................................................................................................................. 61
6.3 Transport sector ............................................................................................................. 64
6.4 Environment sector ........................................................................................................ 66
6.5 Health sector .................................................................................................................. 68
6.6 Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) sector .......................................... 69
6.7 Other market estimates .................................................................................................. 70

Chapter 7. Potential future technological challenges ................................................................. 71


7.1 Challenges within health, demographic change and wellbeing ...................................... 71
7.2 Challenges in the context of food security and the bio-based economy ........................ 75
7.3 Challenges for secure, clean and efficient energy technologies .................................... 76
7.4 Challenges of smart, green and integrated transport ..................................................... 78
7.5 Challenges in the context of raw materials supply ......................................................... 79
7.6 Challenges within resource efficiency and climate action .............................................. 79
7.7 Technological challenges to solving the issues of secure societies ............................... 80
7.8 Innovation and the European paradox ........................................................................... 80

References ....................................................................................................................................... 82

Study methodology .............................................................................................................................. 85

Annex 1 – Market foresights relevant for Value Added Materials.................................................... 87

Annex 2 – Composition of respondents groups ............................................................................. 118

6
List of tables
Table 1: VAMs market share by sector .................................................................................................................... 10
Table 2: Classification of common engineering materials ........................................................................................ 24
Table 3: An overview of top emerging technologies within materials and the research centres working on
these in the last decade. ................................................................................................................................ 52
Table 4: Total market sizes for advanced and new materials .................................................................................. 58
Table 5: Size of identified markets where VAMs are applied ................................................................................... 59
Table 6: VAMs market share by sector .................................................................................................................... 59
Table 7: Share of VAM-related technologies in energy markets .............................................................................. 63
Table 8: Share of VAM-related technologies in ICT markets ................................................................................... 70
Table 9: Overview of identified market size values for sectors covered with the study ........................................... 94
Table 10: List of interviewed materials experts ...................................................................................................... 118
Table 11: List of interviewed bank, private equity & venture capital investment specialists .................................. 121

List of figures
Figure 1: VAMs as a part of advanced and new materials ....................................................................................... 19
Figure 2: Production concentration of critical raw mineral materials ........................................................................ 35
Figure 3: Investment willingness for VAMs by sector ............................................................................................... 45
Figure 4: Investment willingness for VAMs in the energy sector .............................................................................. 47
Figure 5: Investment willingness for VAMs in environment sector ........................................................................... 48
Figure 6: Investment willingness for VAMs in health sector ..................................................................................... 48
Figure 7: Investment willingness for VAMs in ICT sector ......................................................................................... 49
Figure 8: Changes in VAMs’ sector presence and market growth ........................................................................... 60
Figure 9: Global energy sector growth and structure 2007-2035 ............................................................................. 61
Figure 10: Energy sector structure 2015 .................................................................................................................. 61
Figure 11: Energy sector structure 2035 .................................................................................................................. 61
Figure 12: Energy sector size 2015 .......................................................................................................................... 62
Figure 13: Global renewables growth and structure ................................................................................................. 63
Figure 14: Share of VAM-related technologies in transport markets ....................................................................... 64
Figure 15: Share of VAM-related technologies in environmental markets ............................................................... 66
Figure 16: Share of VAM-related technologies in health markets ............................................................................ 68
Figure 17: ICT sector split and growth...................................................................................................................... 69
Figure 18: Energy-related markets for VAMs — selected foresights overview ........................................................ 87
Figure 19: Environment-related markets for VAMs — selected foresights overview ............................................... 88
Figure 20: Transport-related markets for VAMs — selected foresights overview .................................................... 89
Figure 21: Health-related markets for VAMs — foresights from ‘Roadmaps in Nanomedicine’ .............................. 90
Figure 22: Health-related markets for VAMs — selected foresights overview ......................................................... 91
Figure 23: ICT-related markets for VAMs — selected foresights overview.............................................................. 92
Figure 24: Selected cross-cutting markets for VAMs — foresights overview........................................................... 93

7
Acknowledgments

The research team would like to thank all materials experts, investment market special-
ists and all other stakeholders for their valuable input to the data collection, data analy-
sis and comments during the report preparation process.

We would like to express special thanks to our main contact persons from European
Commission: Dr. Helge Wessel and Dr. Renzo Tomellini. We thank them for their
smooth co-operation.

8
Chapter 1. Executive summary / Conclusions

A range of new materials with advanced Value Added Materials are present across
properties are created through the process all groups of commonly engineering mate-
of technological development and rials. Within the scope of material science,
knowledge intensive production. These are they may be classified broadly into the
known as Value Added Materials (VAMs). following three main (traditional) and two
2
New materials appear all the time in the (relatively new) additional classes:
natural course of industrial development;
however advanced materials are tailored 1. metals and alloys (ferrous and
to fulfil specific functions and/or have non-ferrous),
superior structural properties. 2. ceramics,
We distinguish four conditions that define 3. polymers,
Value Added Materials: 3
4. semiconductors,
 a knowledge-intensive and complex 5. composites.
production process,
 new, superior, tailor-made properties
for structural or functional applica- Aim of the study
tions,
This study delineates a precise overview of
 potential to contribute to competitive VAMS through multiple perspectives of
advantage on the market, their various market sectors.
 potential to address Europe’s Grand
1 This major study seeks to achieve the fol-
Challenges.
lowing objectives:
Value Added Materials are a group of 1. definition and classification of VAMs;
advanced materials that have strate-
gic importance for economic growth, 2. analysis: VAMs by sector;
industrial competitiveness or for 3. detailed current market analysis by
addressing the Grand Challenges of sector and technology application;
our times.
4. prediction of VAMs’ market develop-
ment by sector;
5. current and potential future techno-
logical market drivers;
1 The Grand Challenges, a term first used in the Lund Declaration,
have been defined differently in various settings and have evolved
over time. In the recent formulation of Grand Challenges used for
planning Horizon 2020 within the European Commission, DG
Research lists the following:
 health, demographic change and wellbeing;
 food security and bio-based economy;
 secure, clean and efficient energy;
 smart, green and integrated transport; 2 Vinay Swastik, ‘Classification of Materials’, ,Metallurgist Encyclope-
 supply of raw materials; dia.
 resource efficiency and climate protection; 3 Items 4 and 5 of this list follow the classification of materials by Ash

 inclusive, innovative and secure societies. Tan. : http://EzineArticles.com/2894736


9
6. analysis of potential economic and As confirmed by this and other studies the
technological issues in the frame of market for VAMs has the potential to grow
society’s Grand Challenges. more than 10 times over next 40 years.
Market size for Value Added Materials Our market size prognosis, based on sec-
ondary and primary data sources, shows
the following growths:

Table 1: VAMs market share by sector


2008 2015 2020 2030 2050

Energy 7,1 14,3 18,9 37,0 175,7


Transport 9,6 13,1 15,8 24,3 52,6
Environment 24,6 38,2 48,0 86,8 352,2
Health 27,0 32,1 37,4 55,0 115,2
ICT 29,6 38,8 46,6 70,7 152,2
Others / Cross-cutting 3,6 13,5 19,3 42,2 250,8
Total projected value of identified VAMs markets 101,7 150,0 186,1 316,0 1098,6
Source: Oxford Research AS. Unit: billion euro.
an increasingly prominent role in deter-
mining competitiveness in the future, as
Market size for Value Added Materials is these applications will influence a large
foreseen to grow much faster than the part of markets, constituting between 6
average growth of analysed industrial sec- and 8 per cent of total market value.
tors. Their market share is expected to
grow disproportionately high in the near- Today’s VAM research and applications
est future. In average, it is to reach 17per promise to deliver many solutions to the
cent compound annual market growth difficulties catalogued by the Grand Chal-
4
(CAGR ) in all analysed sectors. lenges. Materials applications across all
possible sectors of industry will play enor-
mous roles in the future. Currently availa-
ble technologies, as well as those not yet
identified or still in the lab phase, indicate
Our analysis demonstrates that advanced that many of the problems of today may
materials already influence industrial and be solved. They ‘just’ need to be intro-
economic competitiveness. They will play duced to the market.

We suggest that the European Commission


communicate more with the investment
markets (venture capital and other private
4 Compound Annual Growth Rate: The year-over-year growth rate of
an investment over a specified period of time. CAGR is not an investors) in order to assure better innova-
accounting term, but remains widely used, particularly in growth tion orientation of the research. This shall
industries or to compare the growth rates of two investments be-
cause CAGR dampens the effect of volatility of periodic returns that also reduce the critical time-to-market
can render arithmetic means irrelevant. The CAGR is calculated by indicators for Value Added Materials.
taking the nth root of the total percentage growth rate, where n is the
number of years in the period being considered. Source:
http://www.investopedia.com/terms and http://en.wikipedia.org/
10
Market specific conclusions formants said that only four out of ten
deals return money, and in reality a
 Patent protection is a very important mere one to two bring multiple RoI.
factor for VAMs. Only well protected
material innovation assures the com-  In general terms the expected RoI
petitive advantage on the market in differs between industries, also be-
the long run. cause of sectoral specific conditions.
For example, investments in infor-
 Scalability is a problem for VAMs. mation and communication technolo-
Knowledge intensivity makes them gies have a short investment period,
hard to scale into existing industrial while those in energy or environment
applications. That is also one of the a very long one. The health sector has
reasons for such a long time-to-market its own specific conditions due to ad-
lag for many sophisticated materials ditional safety regulations.
(claimed to be around 20 years).
Investment willingness
 In order to improve time to market
and obtain a higher impact of technol-  Venture capital and private equity
ogies on a shorter time scale, the Eu- investors claim that the Grand Chal-
ropean Commission may consider dis- lenges started to influence their in-
cussing research efforts with financial vestment decisions in the past years
investment actors-investors on ven- and will even influence them more in
ture capital (VC) and private equity the future.
(PE) markets.
 Energy, environment and health were
 Some large industries are considered estimated to be the most promising
to be already well covered (infor- sectors to invest in, due to the poten-
mation and communication technolo- tial big markets for sales in the future
gy [ICT], automotive, pharmaceutical). and still unsolved problems for all hu-
Therefore research investment in the- manity.
se sectors is claimed to be less profit-
 These three sectors — energy, envi-
able.
ronment and health — cover over 80
 The market must be ready for any per cent of investors’ ‘willingness’ to
given VAM and there must be a poten- allocate their resources.
tial to use the new appearing material.
Key industrial sectors where VAMs will
The demand for a new material is
play an important role
largely dependent on its value. If the
price is too high, producers will simply  Energy: important issues are genera-
not buy it. This involves an important tion, distribution and storage, efficien-
dimension of scalability, but also com- cy, and ways to integrate VAMs into
plexity of production. existing structures.
 Return on Investment (RoI) for various  Environment: a cross-cutting sector
types of materials differs. It must be across the other industry sectors, in-
considered individually. Each deal terconnected with the energy sector.
made by a VC or PE investor is ex-
pected to give a reasonable RoI, but  Health: medical devices, biomaterials,
even so for majority this is not the tissue engineering and nanostruc-
case. In several interviews, our in-

11
tures— all are big markets, dealing  market for electric vehicles with,
with the concerns of an ageing society. growth rate of 20 per cent.
 Transport sector: lightweight materials Within the environment sector, identified
will be especially critical. Value Added Materials applications will
reach growth rates on the level of 17 per
 Information and communication tech-
cent, with higher growths in:
nologies sector: traditionally ICT has
 carbon capture technologies, with 63
high growth rates in many areas, es-
per cent growth rate;
pecially in superconductivity and data
transfer technologies, as well as dis-  nanotechnology for environmental
plays. applications, with 61 per cent growth
rate up to 2014;
Most promising market growths
 wastewater treatment delivery
Several applications of Value Added Mate- equipment, instrumentation, process
rials have the potential for extreme growth equipment and treatment chemicals,
in the future. with growth rate of 28per cent cur-
rently;
Within the energy sector, average growth
rate for identified Value Added Materials’  nanofiltration membranes for water
applications will reach 19 per cent. treatment, with current growth rate of
27per cent.
Most important growths will be associated Health sector materials are characterised
with: by lower perspective growths (average for
 stationary fuel cells, with growth rate selected materials’ applications on the
of 55per cent towards 2017; level of 11 per cent) when compared to
 supercapacitors for the energy sector, other sectors. Some high growing fields
with growth rate of 49per cent to- within health related materials are:
 RNAi drug delivery market, with
5
wards 2015;
growth rate of 28 per cent towards
 biogas plant equipment, with a CAGR 2015;
of 30 per cent between 2010 and
2014;  quantum dots for the biomedical sec-
tor and microspheres used in medical
 nanoscale materials used in energy, technology, both with growth rates
catalytic and structural applications, around 25per cent before 2015.
with growth rate of 29 per cent cur-
rently; The Information and Communication
Technologies (ICT) sector is still character-
 inks and catalysts, with growth rate of ised by enormous potential for some ma-
28per cent towards 2015. terials applications since the challenges we
For the transport sector the identified face with the growing demand for infor-
applications of Value Added Materials will mation require new technologies. The
reach the average growth rate of 15 per average growth rate for identified materi-
cent, with especially high growths within: als’ applications will be on the level of 25
 supercapacitors for the transportation
sector, with growth rate of 35 per cent
before 2015; 5RNA interference (RNAi) is a highly evolutionarily conserved
mechanism of gene regulation. See http://www.rnaiweb.com
12
per cent! Still this sector was considered by demonstrate tremendous prospects for
PE and VC investment specialist as largely further development of a large range of
overinvested, with a high ratio of large applications.
companies present as research actors.
The future for Value Added Materials looks
Some key technologies where the highest bright. Yet many challenges exist and many
growths will be encountered: barriers must be overcome in order for all
existing and new coming technologies to
 compound semiconductors for solar really influence our lives and respond to
cells, with growth rate of 85per cent the Grand Challenges of our time.
currently;
Methodology
 organic materials for transparent elec-
tronic components, with growth rate This study is based on primary information
of 57 per cent towards 2015; gathered from interviews with two groups
of stakeholders: materials experts and
 superconducting electrical equipment investors/investment advisors who deal
with growth rate of 108per cent be- with venture capital (VC) and private equi-
fore 2015; ty (PE) investments. Our group then pre-
 nanorobots and NEMs (nanoelectro- pared a detailed analysis of available sec-
mechanical systems), and related ondary sources. When all relevant primary
equipment and materials, with growth and secondary data were available, the
rate of 174 per cent up to 2015. team elaborated the market analysis and
prediction.
As one can see, the market potential and
foresighted growth of VAMs is sometimes
enormous. All data gathered within this
study and presented in the following pages

13
Chapter 2. Introduction to the study

vanced materials, which form a basis of the


2.1 Materials technology and 10
modern high technology, include:
advancements in engineering
 steels and other metallic
The use and processing of materials has
alloys
been one of the main driving forces of
development and prosperity since the  super-alloys
early days of civilization. For centuries
 polymers
materials developed mainly in the fields of
6
ceramics, metallurgy and glass . More  carbon materials
recently an increasingly wide and complex
range of different advanced materials,  optical, electronic and magnetic mate-
production processes, and integrated func- rials
tional systems has emerged.  superconductors

Materials science and engineering drasti-  technical ceramics


cally intensified in the 1960s, when appli-
 composites
cations of materials became increasingly
based on scientific principles rather than  biomaterials.
the empiricism that prevailed prior to
7 Many of these have been successfully
World War II. Materials science and engi-
adapted by the markets and are now uti-
neering today can be described as ‘the
lized in a range of industries and the urban
study of substances from which something
living environment. Examples are encoun-
else is made or can be made; [and] the
tered daily in the areas of health, commu-
synthesis, properties, and applications of
8 nication, consumer goods and transporta-
these substances.’ This definition covers 11
tion. According to the Max Planck Insti-
both natural, traditional materials as well
tute of Materials Research, ‘Materials
as synthetic, designed materials.
science plays a key role as one of the main
Since the 1970s there has been an unprec- pillars of economic progress and social
edented expansion in the number of ad- well-being in Europe and, indeed, the
12
vanced materials, novel production pro- world as a whole.’
cesses, and devices that have entered
9 The Technical Revolution (also called the
many aspects of human life. These ad-
Second Industrial Revolution) in the late
th th
19 and 20 centuries is a good illustration
of severely disruptive developments in

10
6 http://www.materialmoments.org/top100.html http://www.mpg.de/pdf/europeanWhiteBook/wb_materials_010_015.
7 http://www.accessscience.com pdf
8 11 http://www.mpg.de/pdf/europeanWhiteBook/wb_materials_011.pdf

http://www.mpg.de/pdf/europeanWhiteBook/wb_materials_010_015. 12

pdf http://www.mpg.de/pdf/europeanWhiteBook/wb_materials_016_017.
9: http://www.britannica.com pdf
14
manufacturing technologies. Advance- directly engaged in related investments
ments in chemical, electrical, petroleum contributed to this inquiry.
and steel industries subsequently led to The result is a unique set of information
improvements in their respective applica- about the intended decisions of private
tion areas. As an example, the invention of investment actors who deal with advanced
the Bessemer converter enabled inexpen- technologies.
sive mass production of steel, which moti-
vated the rapid construction of railroad
13 Our technology and market assessment
systems, skyscrapers and large ships.
highlights areas where two different types
2.2 Study context and approach of specialists (materials experts and in-
vestment advisors) generally agree on the
This study on ‘Technology and market development of Value Added Materials
perspective for future Value Added Mate- and their applications. A large set of sec-
14
rials’ was commissioned by Directorate ondary data, especially regarding mar-
General for Research & Innovation, Mate- kets’ size, supports the ideas presented by
rials Research. these primary sources.

This assessment aims to understand the Finally, this study lists commonly agreed-
market of Value Added Materials through on facts for policy makers and elucidates
its social, economic, legal, political, eco- issues to be solved through the political
nomic and ecological effects. Our investi- process.
gation presents decision-oriented options
and points out various technical and eco- Future research policies should not aim
nomic scenarios when novel materials are exclusively at technical efficiency and eco-
developed and used. nomic rationality. The social and economic
consequences of introducing specific tech-
This study focuses on the following market nologies and novel materials need to be
segments: considered as well. Geopolitical considera-
tions linked to the supply of strategic raw
 energy materials are also addressed.
 environment
 health
 information and communications
technology (ICT)
 transportation
 others (chemistry and catalysts, con-
struction, etc.).

At the request of the European Commis-


sion, study authors invited experts to give
their opinions about these developing
VAM markets. Materials experts as well as
financial advisors and investors who are

13http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/195896/history-of- 14 Data from other sources relevant for the study included market
Europe/58404/The-Industrial-Revolution#ref643971 size information from other institutes, relevant reports and forecasts.
15
Chapter 3. Definition and classification

3.1 A general reflection on ‘value’ 3.2 Value Added Materials versus


commodity materials
Common sense tells us that ‘value added’
— be it in reference to a material, a pro- It is important to make a clear distinction
cess, a factor, a phenomenon, or an ele- between commodities and Value Added
ment — is something that improves some- Materials in order to lay down a rational
thing else. A material with particular prop- basis for this study. A commodity is a good
erties can be deployed to enhance the for which there is demand, but that is
functionality of a product, which gives it a traded without any specific qualitative
higher degree of functionality and quality. segregation across a market segment. A
commodity is fully or partially inter-
‘Value’ is subjective, reflecting the context changeable; that is, the market treats the
in which it is used. The ‘value’ of the mate- good as equivalent regardless of source or
rial will have different meanings depending means of production. A raw material is a
on the stakeholders (companies/producers commodity: a basic substance in its natu-
of VAMs, companies/users of VAMs, inves- ral, modified, or semi-processed state,
tors, researchers, consumers), but also it used as an input to a production process
will vary in different economic regions: for subsequent modification or transfor-
Europe, Asia, Americas. 15
mation into a finished good. Soft com-
modities are primarily goods that are
For an industrial company the value of a grown, such as coffee and soy beans, while
highly performing product lies in its capaci- hard commodities are mainly extracted
ty to increase the company’s competitive through mining or similar exploitation and
advantage in the market. For a venture subject to a certain degree of processing,
capitalist who has invested in such a com- such as extraction of iron from its ore.
pany, the value of the highly performing
product lies in the return on investment Therefore, commodity material suppliers
(RoI) generated. The value of a highly per- compete basically on the basis of costs:
forming product can lie in its potential to their success depends on their internal
contribute to efficient energy savings. But cost position and not on the basis of mate-
it is also possible that the ‘value’ for this rial performance. Petroleum and copper
same product could have a negative effect are examples of well-known commodities.
on the environment or human health. The price of petroleum is universal, and it
varies on a daily basis due to global supply
It is thus highly important to clarify what is and demand. Thus, one of the characteris-
meant by ‘value’. In this respect, the defi- tics of a commodity good is that its price is
nition of ‘Value Added Materials’ is a chal- established as a function of its entire mar-
lenge, because the word ‘value’ has differ- ket. Commodities — raw or primary prod-
ent meanings. ucts — are exchanged on so-called com-
modity markets. These goods are traded

15 http://www.investorwords.com
16
on regulated exchanges, in which they are
Different but interrelated terms:
bought and sold in different types of
standardised contracts.
 value-added materials
Value Added Materials, on the other hand,  added value materials
are normally produced by a complex, inter-  advanced materials
linked industry. In the most stringent in-  new/novel materials
terpretation, Value Added Materials are
products whose worth is based on their The most-used terms in the literature are
performance or functionality, rather than ‘advanced materials’ and ‘new materials’.
their composition. They can be single enti- The term ‘Value Added Materials’ appears
ties or formulations/combinations of sev- very seldom. We even find the inversed
eral materials whose composition sharply use ‘added value materials’. The term
influences the performance and processing ‘Value Added Materials’ appears predomi-
of the end product. Products and services nantly in the EU documentation, in its work
in the materials industry require intensive with FPs calls for proposals, work pro-
knowledge and powerful innovation. grammes and policy documents.

The commoditisation of a good occurs A search through Google, Google-scholar,


when a goods market loses segregation EBSCO databases and electronic books has
relative to its supply base. This means that brought no significant results on other
goods that previously had high margins for sources where VAMs specifically are de-
market actors become commodities, such fined or discussed. We concluded that
as generic pharmaceuticals and silicon scientists and the industry don’t have sin-
chips. It is therefore possible that certain gle definition of what VAMs are, so we
Value Added Materials may become com- turned to policy documents and other
modities due to technological develop- documents from the European Commis-
ments. sion. The first observation is that VAMs are
a kind of advanced materials with specific
3.3 VAM properties based on properties, that have both functional and
literature review structural applications, and that they are
new. The question that we asked ourselves
The following discussion is based on a at this stage was what differentiates VAMs
comprehensive survey of a wide range of from the rest of the advanced materials,
publications on materials science and from the rest of the functional materials,
technologies, numerous articles and a and from the rest of the new materials. We
number of webpages, including ASM Inter- looked for answers in material science and
national (The Materials Information Socie- nanotechnology books and articles to find
ty) sources and other materials-specialised any defining elements that would help us
institutions. to differentiate between them.

The first observation is that different Adopting an open approach, the search
names related to VAMs emerge in the was undertaken for the properties of the
literature. This indicates that while these three ‘kinds’ of materials: VAMs, advanced
terms are interconnected, there is no materials, and new materials. A range of
standard definition to date. elements was found, describing the three
in terms of properties, applications, pro-
duction process, market characteristics,

17
different effects, and their potential. These Advanced materials are described in the
elements were analyzed and weighed. literature through the following properties
Several of them were chosen for further and processes:
elaboration based on their relevance for
the definition of VAMs and on context of  properties that are superior to those
the assignment. exhibited by commodity materials,
that is, more durable and resistant
The literature shows that through the materials, such as advanced steels;
current technological development and
 materials and systems made out of
knowledge intensive production processes,
these materials can be designed to ex-
a range of new materials with advanced
hibit novel and significantly improved
properties are created. New materials
physical, chemical and biological prop-
appear all the time in the natural course of
erties, phenomena and processes;
industrial development. Out of these a
special group is tailored to fulfil specific  higher energy absorption capacity;
functions and/or have superior structural
properties; these are the advanced mate-  tailored, significantly enhanced prop-
rials. erties and predictable performance;
 new functionalities and improved
Schulte described one special group of performance, with higher knowledge
advanced materials ‘at the nanoscale …it content in the production process.
seems that in terms of engineering there is
a good chance that all the good things
found close to the top (micro) and the More specifically, we find the following
bottom of the scale (atom, molecule) can descriptions that define the new and ad-
be combined to produce something entire- vanced materials, which we believe include
ly superior or new.’16 the VAMs.

Similarly, most advanced materials are


17
called a ‘new generation’ of materials
that display physical attributes substantial-
18
ly different from the generics and provide
superior performance capacities.

If we assume that VAMs are included in the


term ‘advanced materials’, it can be de-
duced that VAMs share to a certain de-
gree, if not entirely, properties that charac-
terize advanced materials.

16 Schulte, J., (ed.) 2005. p. 98.


17 For example in: EU Commission 2011. Fisher, et al. 2008., Weng,
Y., et al. 2011. Pinciotta, F., 2011. Waqar A., and M. J. Jackson,.
2009.
18 In Weng, Y., et al. 2011. Krueger, A., Kelsall, R., et al. 2005.

18
Schulte describes advanced materials cre- fundamental features that differentiate
19
ated through nano-engineering:. them from other materials categories.
Schematically we understand the VAMs as
‘Many of these new materials are
a part of the advanced materials and new
assembled out of existing building
materials (see figure 1).
blocks, but are put together in novel
ways, with properties that are often Figure 1: VAMs as a part of advanced and
designed in, deliberately and con- new materials
sciously created to have specific, de-
sired physical and chemical properties.
The ability to measure, control and
modify matter at the nanoscale, i.e. at New
the atomic and molecular level, results materials
in materials with new structural and
functional properties that have the
potential to revolutionize existing Advanced
Materials
markets or create whole new mar-
kets.’

Another description of advanced materials


20 VAMs
is in Rensselaer.
‘Advanced materials refer to all new
materials and modifications to exist-
ing materials to obtain superior per-
formance in one or more characteris- Our search for the fundamental features
tics that are critical for the application that differentiate VAMs from the rest of
under consideration.’ the advanced materials brought us back to
the European Commission’s own docu-
‘Advanced materials are materials
ments. Especially, the content of the work
that are early in their product and/or
programmes reflects the Commission’s
technology lifecycle, that have signifi-
position and understanding of VAMs based
cant room for growth in terms of the
on consultations with NMP Expert Advisory
improvement of the performance
Group and the European Technology Plat-
characteristics (technology lifecycle)
forms, as well as inputs from other FP7
and their sales volume (product lifecy- 21 22
themes, EURATOM and RFCS . An im-
cle.).
portant observation is that the Commission
acknowledges the potential of advanced
materials to contribute to fulfilling two
By this point, the conclusion must be made
strategic objectives of the European Union.
that the VAMs are a kind of advanced ma-
These are: European industrial and eco-
terials, but still there is a need to find the
nomic competitiveness and meeting the
Grand Challenges.

19 Schulte, J., (ed.) 2005. p. 111.

20 Rensselaer. 2004. Advanced Materials Sector Report, p. 1. 21 European Atomic Energy Community.
22 Research Fund for Coal and Steel.
19
Some examples where the potential and and these, contrary to novel materials in
the role of VAMs are described in Europe- the past, will actually set the pace of inno-
an Commission documents follow below: vation itself. Industrial competiveness now
wholly depends on the continued devel-
‘Materials will also support the development of opment and growth of the so-called ‘sci-
solutions in materials sciences and engineering ence’ or knowledge-based industries, that
(including “horizontal technologies”) in order to
include biotechnology, pharmaceuticals,
overcome scientific, technological and related
bottlenecks enabling new technologies that can and micro- and nano-electronics. As an
give European industry a strong competitive example, the silicon chip is expected to
advantage in the years to come.’
23 reach its technological limit in its ability to
miniaturise. After this point is reached,
‘European competitiveness will be directly new electronic materials must be tailored
related to the ability in maintaining advanced to provide the basis for further develop-
technology in experimental facilities and con- ments in miniaturisation.
24
tinuously developing new analytical tools.’
Current and future materials with new
‘Added value materials with higher knowledge
properties thus help remove innovation
content, new functionalities and improved
performance are critical for industrial competi- bottlenecks in the development and com-
tiveness and sustainable development; the petitiveness of industrial sectors. As a
materials themselves represent a key step in result of this, ‘added value’ translates into
increasing the value of products and their per- the inherent capacity of a material to over-
formance, including design and control of their come barriers in the development of new
25
processing, properties and performance.’ products in the science/knowledge-based
economy.
The term ‘Value Added Material’ can also
be linked to Sanford Moskowitz’s discus- In terms of VAMs’ role in addressing the
sion of the Advanced Materials Revolu- Grand Challenges, we find the following in
26
tion. He argues that the new generation the work programmes:
of advanced materials increasingly plays a
prominent role in determining industrial ‘Research will focus on materials science and
engineering defined in order to contribute to
and economic competitiveness, far more
Europe's Grand Challenges, in line with the
than their counterparts did in the past. The ‘Lund Declaration’, which states that "Meeting
two former materials revolutions — the the Grand Challenges also requires (…) taking a
first based on coal-tar (in Germany) and global lead in the development of enabling
27
mass production of metals and alloys (in technologies such as (…) materials.”’
the US) between 1870-1930 and the se-
cond petrochemical-based in the US be- ‘Key Enabling Technologies (KETs) such as ad-
tween 1930-1960 — did not primarily rely vanced materials are of exceptional importance.
on materials as such but rather on engi- Mastering such technologies lays stable founda-
tion for well-paid jobs in the EU and allows for
neering design. Since 1980 a new genera- 28
sustainable, societal-agreed growth.’
tion of advanced materials has emerged,
‘The key objective is to radically improve mate-
rials by increasing knowledge in materials sci-

23 Work Programme 2012, Cooperation, Theme 4, Nanosciences,


Nanotechnologies, Materials and New Production Technologies.
24 Ibidem.
25 Ibidem. 27 Work Programme 2012, Cooperation, Theme 4, Nanosciences,
26 Moskowitz, S.L. 2009: The Coming of the Advanced Materials Nanotechnologies, Materials and New Production Technologies.
Revolution. 28 Ibidem.

20
ence, in particular at the nanoscale, as well as matter that has been arranged for human
to make progress in the field of environmentally purpose. In this meaning as soon as the
friendly materials able to substitute currently matter becomes a material it has a certain
harmful applications, and in the field of clean,
29 value and with every step in any produc-
flexible and efficient materials processing.’
tion process, value is added to the materi-
al. From this perspective any materials that
are used by humanity today have a value in
themselves.
3.4 Definition of VAMs based on
interviews Examples from our interviews:
In general most of the experts and the ‘Copper is a commodity. As soon as you try to
investors we interviewed agree with the modify it or combine it, I would call it a VAM.
four criteria defining VAMs proposed in Plumbing tube that has an improvement coat-
Chapter 3.5 . ing on starts to be a value added material.’

Some interviewees understand VAMs in ‘You create some value in respect to a basic
terms of their breakthrough nature or the commodity. Doing something, you add value.’
technologies using them. ‘Breakthrough’ is
‘You take a material and you shape and form it
understood as intelligent solutions for so that you have a more complex structure, or
difficult problems that will have a big im- function in the end. The production process in
pact in society or a revolutionary effect itself is adding value to the material. In every
with respect to current practices. single step in the production chain, you have
added value, sometimes by work, sometimes by
There is also confusion with regards to the materials or technology.’
term ‘Value Added Materials’. The exam-
ples below illustrate this. Take integration into account

VAMs understanding too narrow? An interesting approach emerged from a


number of interviews:
Our experts observed that the material is
usually not considered ‘valuable’ in itself, ‘You cannot separate materials from technology
or manufacturing process. Materials are the
but through the combined value of the
first step of processing. We are dealing with
devices, structures and systems of tech- complex, integrated systems that materials are
nologies and production processing. In this a part of. The next generation of devices will
sense, the material is just an element, a have it all in one. ...The key word is integration
part of a structure. It is the value of the and VAMs should facilitate this integration.
structure that the interviewees talk about Materials are becoming a part of the structure;
and not the value of a specific material. they serve integration... Integration is adding
new functionalities and combing functionalities
VAMs understanding too wide? in the sense that we now have the result of
having a system, structure, device that can offer
There were quite a few informants who more than one functionality.’
perceive VAMs from the perspective of the
“Materials are not the end but a beginning of
production chain process. Here value is
the feeding chain of the industrial system.”’
understood in terms of processing any

29 Ibidem.
21
3.5 VAM definition 3.6 What shall be not considered
Value Added Material
Policy definition
To address the question ‘What is not a
VAM‘, we return to the main definition
A special group of advanced materials has factors. The first differentiating point for
a significant potential to address the Grand VAMs is the ‘knowledge intensivity’ in the
Challenges and contribute to industrial and process of material production. Note that a
economic competitive advantage on the ‘knowledge-intensive process’ is not pre-
market. In this respect the ‘added value’ of cisely defined and therefore leaves the
these advanced materials is for the whole field open for further discussion. However,
society and not merely for a specific com- the high level of knowledge required leads
pany or industry. The ‘added value’ of the to the assumption that the manufacture of
material is, in addition, of a strategic and novel VAMs is associated with the creation
long-term nature, targeting the whole and protection of intellectual property.
society. In other words, a group of ad- This means that the knowledge necessary
vanced materials that have a strategic for their creation is not commonly accessi-
importance for society and technology shall ble in the market.
be considered VAMs.
In this way widely known examples of
thermoplastics as polyethylene, polypro-
We distinguish four conditions that
pylene, polystyrene and polyvinyl chloride
define VAMs:
shall not be considered VAMs. Their pro-
1. Knowledge-intensiveness and duction methods are well-known and the
complex production process. production process is not knowledge in-
tensive. It is also no longer characterised
2. New, superior, tailor-made prop- by intellectual property protection. Ther-
erties for structural or functional moplastics have become bulk materials.
applications.
On the other hand if we take simple plastic
3. Potential to contribute to com- and enhance its structure with nano-
petitive advantage on the market. particles in a complex process probably not
available to most manufacturers in order
4. Potential to address the Grand to obtain novel or enhanced properties,
Challenges. this process would result in a creation of
VAM.
Thus the definition of VAMs can be
formulated like this: The same logic may apply to such com-
monly used materials as glass for windows,
‘VAMs are a group of advanced ma- cement for construction or aluminium for
terials that have strategic im- car industry. In general these are bulk
portance for economic growth, indus- materials used and produced in multiple
trial competitiveness and address the applications. The production of these does
Grand Challenges of our times.’ not give any market advantage based on
‘unique’ material properties. The produc-
ers only compete with the price of the
produced outcome. In most cases these
common materials are produced in pro-

22
cesses that can no longer be viewed as
knowledge intensive. Simplifications in the 3.7 Classification
manufacturing process and the possession
of its knowledge does not provide a com- Common engineering materials within the
petitive advantage on the market. Expira- scope of Material Science may be classified
tion of patent protection after 20 years, broadly into the following three main (tra-
means that any competitor is free to man- ditional) and two (relatively new) addition-
30
ufacture the material. al classes:

On the other hand laboratories of large 1. metals and alloys (ferrous and non-
and small companies work intensively to ferrous),
enhance properties of such bulk materials 2. ceramics,
in order to create VAMs that address many
challenging applications. These materials 3. polymers,
— having extraordinary, enhanced or new 4. semiconductors,
31

properties and able to respond to market


needs, thus creating market advantage for 5. composites.
the producer — meet the definition of These classes can be further broken into
VAM.
various sub-groups, each with different
applications. Every object we come across
belongs to one or combinations of these
32
classes.

30 Vinay Swastik, ‘Classification of Materials’, Metallurgist Encyclope-


dia.
31 Items 4 and 5 of this list follow the classification of materials by Ash

Tan; http://EzineArticles.com/2894736
32 Ibidem.

23
Table 2: Classification of common engineer- New additional classes for VAMs
ing materials
Semiconductor materials are nominally
Group Important char- Common exam- small band gap insulators. The defining
acteristics ples of engineer- property of a semiconductor material is
ing use33
that it can be doped with impurities that
Metals Hardness, re- Iron and steels,
alter its electronic properties in a control-
and sistance to aluminium, cop-
Alloys corrosion, ther- per, zinc, magne- lable way. The most commonly used semi-
mal and electrical sium, brass, conductor materials are crystalline inor-
conductivity, bronze, invar, ganic solids. Semiconductors can be classi-
malleability, super alloys, fied into many groups following periodic
stiffness and super-conductors, table groups of their constituent atoms
34
property of etc.
magnetism.
as well as by different approaches follow-
ing their general properties: e.g. elemental
Ceramics Thermal re- Silica, glass, semiconductors, compound semiconduc-
sistance, brittle- cement, concrete, tors, layered semiconductors, magnetic
ness, opaque- refractories, semiconductors, organic semiconductors,
ness to light, silicon carbide,
charge-transfer complexes and others.
electrical insula- boron nitride
tion, high- abrasives, fer-
temperature rites, insulators, Composite materials constitute the catego-
strength, abra- garnets, etc. ry where most VAMs will be identified.
siveness, re- Composites are materials composed of two
sistance to or more distinct phases (matrix phase and
corrosion. dispersed phase) and having bulk proper-
Organic Soft, light in Plastics – poly ties significantly different from those of
Polymers weight, dimen- vinyl chloride, any of the constituents. A composite there-
sionally unstable, poly tetra fluoro-
poor conductors ethylene, polycar- fore is a combination of two or more
of heat and bonates. chemically distinct materials whose physi-
electricity, duc- cal characteristics are superior to its con-
tile, combustible, Natural and stituents acting independently. The classi-
low-thermal synthetic fibers – fication of composite materials (based on
resistance. nylon, terylene, 35
matrix material) follows this basic split:
leather, etc.
Other uses –
explosives, refrig-  Metal Matrix Composites (MMC) Met-
erants, insulators, al matrix composites are composed of
lubricants, deter- a metallic matrix (aluminium, magne-
gents, fuels, sium, iron, cobalt, copper) and a dis-
vitamins, medi- persed ceramic (oxides, carbides) or
cines, adhesives,
metallic (lead, tungsten, molybdenum)
etc.
phase.
Source: Metallurgist Encyclopaedia.  Ceramic Matrix Composites (CMC)
Ceramic matrix composites are com-

34 See Fluck, E. ‘New notations in the periodic table’. Pure & App.
Chem. 1988, 60, 431-436; and Leigh, G. J. ‘Nomenclature of
33 Please note that these are not necessarily examples of VAMs, but Inorganic Chemistry: Recommendations.’ Blackwell Science, 1990.
definitely there are VAMs existing within these groups in the form of 35Dr. Dmitri Kopeliovich, ‘Classification of composites’.
different composite materials. http://www.substech.com/
24
36
posed of a ceramic matrix and em- Sanford L. Moskowitz elaborates on ad-
bedded fibres of other ceramic mate- vanced-material families based on proper-
rial (dispersed phase). ties, production methods and applications,
 Polymer Matrix Composites (PMC) as well as the classical materials split pre-
Polymer matrix composites are com- sented above. Moskowitz divides them
posed of a matrix from thermoset (un- into:
saturated polyester [UP], epoxy [EP])
or thermoplastic, (polycarbonate [PC],  bioengineered materials,
polyvinylchloride [PVC], nylon,  advanced metals: advanced stainless
polysterene) and embedded glass, steel and ‘superalloys’,
carbon, steel or kevlar fibres (dis-  advanced ceramics and superconduc-
persed phase). tors,
 nanoceramics,
Another classification of composite mate-  piezoelectric ceramics,
rials based on reinforcing material struc-  synthetic engineering (nonconducting)
ture divides them into: polymers,
 organic electronic materials (conduct-
1. Particulate Composites- ing polymers),
These consist of a matrix reinforced by  organic polymer electronics (OPEs)
a dispersed phase in the form of parti- and display technology,
cles:  OPEs and the integrated circuit,
 composites with random orienta-  advanced (nonthin) coatings,
tion of particles, or  thermal barrier coatings,
 composites with preferred orien-  conductive coatings,
tation of particles. Dispersed
 anticorrosion metallic coatings,
phase of these materials consists
 multifunctional ( ‘smart’) coatings,
of two-dimensional flat platelets
 nanopowders and nanocomposites,
(flakes), laid parallel to each oth-
 nanocarbon materials,
er.
 metal fullerenes,
2. Fibrous Composites  nanotubes,
 Short-fibre reinforced composites  nanofibres,
consist of a matrix reinforced by a  thin films,
dispersed phase in the form of  advanced composites.
discontinuous fibres (length <
100* diameter). The same study also suggests a simpler
 Long-fibre reinforced composites approach to classification, grouping new
consist of a matrix reinforced by a materials as follows:
dispersed phase in form of con-
tinuous fibres.  bioengineered materials,
3. Laminate Composites  advanced (‘super’) alloys,
 When a fibre-reinforced compo-  advanced ceramics,
site consists of several layers with  engineering polymers,
different fibre orientations, it is
called a multilayer (angle-ply)
composite.
36Sanford L. Moskowitz. Advanced Materials Revolution Technology
and Economic Growth in the Age of Globalization; John Wiley &
Sons, Inc.,2009.
25
 organic polymer electronics (OPEs),  dendrimeres,
 advanced electronic materials (other),  nanorodes,
 advanced coatings,  nanoplates,
 nanopowders,  nano clay (e.g. kaolinite).
 nanocarbon materials,
 nanofibers,
 thin films,
 advanced composites.

Production process dimension — the


‘nano’ level
VAMs classification can be also ap-
proached by the dimension on which the
material is produced.

In short the main split here will be the


macro, micro and nano levels. Most of the
commonly used composites are obtained
at macro and micro levels. The lower the
scale, the more knowledge-intensive the
process for material creation is; therefore
more VAMs can be found on the micro and
nano scale. Today OECD’s database of
37
nanomaterials contains a record of more
than 300 different materials produced at
the nano level, divided into following cate-
gories:

 nano carbon (e.g. multi-walled carbon


nanotubes-SWCNTs),
 polymers specifically synthesized to
exploit nano-properties (e.g. specifi-
cally synthesized polystyrene),
 dendrimers (e.g. polyamidoamine-
PAMAM),
 components of quantum Dd (e.g. bari-
um titanate CAS 12047-27-7, or silicon
germanium),
 inorganic nanomaterials ( e.g. alumini-
um borate CAS 6179-70-7, indum ox-
ide CAS 1312 43-2, silicon dioxide CAS
60676-86-0),
 polymers and other organics,

37 OECD Database on Research into the Safety of Manufactured


Nanomaterials.
http://webnet.oecd.org/NanoMaterials/Pagelet/Front/Default.aspx
26
Chapter 4. Qualitative technology assess-
ment and perspective in the social and eco-
nomic context
38
Investors interviewed for this study re- Declaration identifies a set of themes in
vealed a representative opinion focused on urgent need of solution. The Declaration
research-demanding businesses. A number emphasises the necessity for the European
of investment experts indicated that re- research community to respond. Following
search in advanced technologies has be- this declaration, the European Commission
come more socially responsible, and eager (EC) Research and Innovation DG published
to address the major problems of our a report on ‘The Role of Community Re-
times. search Policy in the Knowledge-Based
39
Economy’, prepared by the European
Quantitative information gathered during Research Area Expert Group (ERA-EG). It
these interviews indicates that future in- has identified ways to maximise the effi-
vestments will be largely directed towards ciency of Community research policy in the
the three most important sectors in this post-2010 period. Among its most im-
context: energy, environment and health. portant recommendations is a call for con-
centrated research efforts to solve the
In this chapter we give an overview of the
major problems it terms ‘Grand Societal
Grand Challenges and point out possible
Challenges’.
VAM implementations that may solve
them. These application areas are the Later on, the European Commission (EC)
result of secondary data analysis, based on Research and Innovation DG published
the available strategies, roadmaps and ‘Strengthening the role of European Tech-
foresights for industrial technologies as nology Platforms in addressing Europe's
identified in our research mission. Annex 1 40
Grand Societal Challenges’. This report
provides a full list of market sizes gathered
summarises the work of an expert group
from the secondary sources analysed.

4.1 Grand Challenges


The Grand Challenges reflect Europe’s 38 Lund Declaration, ‘Europe Must Focus on the Grand Challenges

issues, current and future trends and the of Our Time’, Swedish EU Presidency, 8 July 2009, Lund, Sweden.
http://www.se2009.eu/polopoly_fs/1.8460!menu/standard/file/lund_de
policies being developed in response. . claration_final_version_9_july.pdf

This important discussion joins the future 39 Report of the European Research Area Expert Group on ‘The
of the Community with Community spend- Role of Community Research Policy in the Knowledge-Based
ing, since Value Added Materials develop- Economy’, [Online] http://ec.europa.eu/research/era/index_en.html
ment may influence our future ability to
40 Report of the European Technology Platforms Expert Group.
answer the Grand Challenges. The Lund
‘Strengthening the role of European Technology Platforms in
addressing Europe's Grand Societal Challenges’.
http://www.ectp.org/groupes2/params/ectp/download_files/27D1047v
1_ETP_ExpertGroup_Report.pdf

27
on European Technology Platforms, con- that will be felt for generations to come.
vened by DG Research in early 2009. The Paradoxically, perhaps, the new technolo-
expert group examined how the current 36 gies to some extent add to longevity, as
European Technology Platforms (ETPs) medicine, sanitation, and agricultural pro-
should evolve in the near future. This re- duction have improved. Life expectancy
port proposes that all ETPs be encouraged around the world has risen and continues
to work in flexible clusters focused on to rise. This, combined with falling birth
addressing the key problems facing Eu- rates, is causing what experts call the ‘de-
rope. These clusters should involve all mographic transition’—the gradual change
relevant stakeholders, work across all as- from high to low levels of fertility and mor-
pects of the knowledge triangle (innova- tality.
tion, research, education), and be respon-
sible for implementing potential solutions. One of the most important implications of
this transition is that the elderly constitute
Each of the Grand Challenges raises signifi- a much greater share of the total popula-
cant issues for the future, while potential tion than before. Europe has seen both
solutions may be linked to Value Added mortality and fertility fall since the 19th
Materials. century. Since the 1960s, however, fertility
has declined even more dramatically. Eu-
When planning future research activities, rope now has so many elderly people and
the European Commission formulated the so few newborns, that mortality rates have
following Grand Challenges: started to climb again, now reaching levels
similar to some developing countries.
 health, demographic change and well-
being;. Today, 19 of the world’s 20 ‘oldest’ coun-
 food security and the bio-based econ- tries — those with the largest percentage
omy; of elderly people (age 65 or older) — are in
 secure, clean and efficient energy; Europe. In Italy, the world’s oldest country
 smart, green and integrated transport; by these standards, over 19 per cent of the
 supply of raw materials; population is elderly. This figure is ex-
 resource efficiency and climate action; pected to reach 28 per cent by 2030.
 inclusive, innovative and secure socie-
ties. Aging populations will create a number of
challenges for current and future govern-
Sections below discuss these challenges, ments. One is how to sustain public pen-
then present an overview of how VAMs sion/social security systems as a larger
might address them within a wider social proportion of people reach retirement and
and economic context. enjoy a longer life. New technological solu-
tions including Value Added Materials may
be used to cope with some problems relat-
4.1.1 Health, demographic change and ed to old age and frailty, and most of all to
wellbeing health related challenges.
Europe is bracing for the social and eco- Public health and pandemics
nomic impacts of a retiring ‘baby boom’
generation. But the aging of the population The main consideration in public health
is not a temporary European trend — it is a issues is to provide medical care to every-
long-term and global development, one one while minimising discrimination.

28
The terms of reference for this contract  Materials speeding up recovery after
exclude pharmaceuticals as such from the medical treatment: innovative wound
potential list of Value Added Materials in dressings; light, breathable or-
the strict sense. Still drug research is im- thoses/protheses.
portant to public health and official re-
 Materials improving everyday life for
sponses to pandemics.
the elderly: adaptive compressing
In this context other materials’ applications stockings, functional diapers, custom-
with a high potential to address this chal- ised clothing for easy use and func-
lenge are listed in analysed secondary tionalities adapted to special needs.
sources.  Textile-compatible energy storage
systems like electrochemical batteries
 Materials with new functionalities and
and supercapacitor materials.
improved properties and comfort: re-
sistance against an aggressive envi-  Flexible or fibre-based photovoltaic
ronment, hygienic and easy to clean, cells and piezo-electric materials.
moisture control, thermal, electro-
 Electroconductive materials and poly-
magnetic and acoustic isolation, heat
mer optical fibres for communication.
storage and climatic functionality.
Materials for wireless textile commu-
These qualities create a ‘warm feeling’
nication systems.
and aesthetic appearance.
 Nanobio-devices for diagnostics, ‘cells-
 Active, multi-functional materials that
on-chips‘ for sensing elements.
improve the indoor climate and ener-
gy consumption of buildings by means  Targeting agents or contrast agents,
of nano, sensor and information tech- swallowable imaging, diagnostic and
nology. therapeutic ‘pills’.
 Development of new materials based  Materials for wireless implants and
on bio-technologies, for example em- autarkic sensors (smart power man-
bedded bioelectronics, active surface agement).
properties, or natural process tech-
 Active delivery systems, releasing
nologies.
drugs, vitamins or nutrients into the
 Smart garments that can adapt their body when certain conditions occur.
insulation function according to tem-
 Materials for integrated microproces-
perature changes (through integrated
sors capable of data analysis, enabling
sensors and actuators), detect vital
early detection and diagnosis of ill-
signals of the wearer’s body and react
nesses or diseases.
to them, change colour or emit light
upon defined stimuli (through inte-  Smart clothes fitted with nanosensors
grated sensors and actuators), detect to record parameters such as blood
and signal significant changes in the pressure, pulse and body temperature.
wearer’s environment (absence of ox-
ygen, presence of toxic gases or chem-  Photosensors for fluorescence (vision
icals, radiation, strong electromagnetic systems).
fields etc.), generate or accumulate  Carbon nanotube ink batteries, micro
electric energy to power medical and batteries, supercapacitors, and micro
other electronic devices.

29
fuel cells built with 3D nanostructures tations in emerging countries. Strong ten-
and nano materials. sions may emerge, as the quantities avail-
able are likely to decrease due to climate
 Wide bandgap semiconductor material
change.
for energy conversion systems.
 Advanced materials for interconnec- Desalination plants may proliferate around
tions and bonding techniques, thick the Mediterranean, in Asia, Australia and
layer deposition processes and encap- California. Early plants first located in the
sulation techniques. Middle East today produce half of the
world’s desalinated water. Such first-
 Materials for LED phototherapy unit generation desalination technologies use a
producing blue light and minimizing great deal of combustion energy. Thus
exposure to harmful ultraviolet radia- current methods of desalinisation will
tion. contribute to increased CO2 emissions and
exacerbate problems in the natural hydro-
logic cycle.
4.1.2 Food security and the bio-based
economy Water suppliers are already using new
technologies based on Value Added Mate-
Malnutrition affects 2 billion people in the rials, and VAMs’ influence can be expected
world today. With the predicted growth in to grow in the future. Applications for
population, by 2025 this number likely will water supply systems include:
increase vastly (especially in Africa and
South Asia), as food demand in emerging  materials for advanced technologies to
countries increases. Moreover, supply is permit the re-use of waste water;
likely to be reduced and food prices may
prove prohibitive for the poorest groups  materials for treatment systems for
because of the reduction of agricultural rainwater harvesting;
land, irrigation problems and the general  materials that remove microbial pollu-
effects of climate change. Value Added tion (including viruses) and emerging
Materials in the chemical sector that sup- contaminants;
port agriculture production may be an
important factor in future solutions.  materials for seawater desalination by
innovative solar-powered membrane
In general the VAMs may not directly influ- distillation systems;
ence the food production sector apart
 integrated long-term materials and
from such applications as: components, based on innovative,
cost-efficient technologies, for new
 advanced chemicals and biochemicals
and existing infrastructures;
supporting agricultural production;
 materials for manufacturing nanopo-
 new packaging materials for food.
rous membranes (filtration, packaging,
electrolytic devices, large surface elec-
trodes);
Water
 materials that reduce energy and
The need for water will increase sharply chemical use in water and wastewater
with the increases in world population and treatment systems.
the rise in the standard of living and expec-

30
4.1.3 Secure, clean and efficient energy available roadmaps and industry strate-
gies.
There is an increasing tension between
rapidly growing demand and restricted 1. Energy production
supplies of petroleum-based resources (oil,
gas). Their polluting nature is a complicat-  Generate electricity, heat and clean
ing factor, which holds true for a resource fuels ( hydrogen, bio-fuels, etc.) using
that is still abundant: coal. These tensions advanced materials. Examples are
have caused an almost constant rise in high-temperature materials, coatings
energy prices. Increased use of renewable and functional materials for zero-
energy, as well as progress in the reduction emission fossil fuel; nuclear, biomass
of energy consumption, may help to con- and waste-fired power plants; fuel
tain price rises. But opinion is divided over cells.
the scope of possible change, and how and  Materials for renewable energy sys-
when this might happen. Value Added tems: solar (photovoltaic and ther-
Materials may have a strong role here, mal), wave/tidal and wind. Technolo-
responding to the need of technologies to gies include improved solar panels,
create effective alternate energy sources. materials and production technologies
for concentrator solar cells with very
Despite our technological sophistication, in
high efficiencies.
2025 the world’s energy demand will have
increased by 50 per cent (relative to 2005)  New materials to substitute petrole-
and will reach the equivalent of 15 billion um-based chemical with bio-based
tons oil equivalent. Oil production will have ones: ‘Green’ specialty chemicals.
peaked, and some experts believe coal will
 Advanced biofuels: cellulosic ethanol,
become the prime energy source between
advanced biodiesel, other bio-
now and 2050. Possibly, oil will still largely
41 mass/sugar-based biofuels, bio-
be in the lead in 2025. The security of
synthetic gas.
energy supplies increasingly will be called
into question in Europe. If policy does not  Propulsion technologies: materials
change the EU of the future will be more required for reductions in the number,
dependent on external sources than in cost, size and weight of the electrical
2005. In 2030, the Union will import al- equipment; alternators, transformers,
most 70 per cent of the energy it needs. frequency converters, generators and
electric motors.
Value Added Materials have the potential
to modify some of those figures with low  Nanotechnologies: new catalysts to
energy or green energy solutions. VAM increase the conversion efficiencies of
alternatives can redesign today’s energy- fuel cells and biodiesel, and to synthe-
consuming devices in both homes and size biodegradable lubricants.
industry.  Bioisoprene applications: rubber, ad-
hesives, specialty elastomers, bio-
The list of possible applications in the en-
chemical and bio-based hydrocarbon
ergy sector may be tracked from currently
fuel for transportation.
 Materials with specific requirements
for power plants with corrosion re-
41 International Energy Agency foresight. sistance (aqueous and high tempera-

31
ture), light weight technologies (com- temperature conductors and insula-
posites, plastics) and environmental tion systems for cable transmission,
coatings. high temperature superconducting ca-
bles and Gas Insulated Lines.
 Improved materials for nuclear energy
sector used for plasma surrounding  Functional coatings with advanced
components. thermal control: high capacity heat
pipes (500 w/m), phased loop (10 to
 Innovative fuels for nuclear energy
1000 kw.m).
sector (including minor actinide-
bearing) and core performance. 3. Energy storage
 New high temperature resistant mate-  Advanced materials for large- and
rials for nuclear reactors, energy mi- small-scale energy storage.
cro-generation units for MST energy
4. Energy use and efficiency
scavenging and conversion materials
for energy waste.  Materials for sensors, actuators, and
control and communication systems to
 Catalyst with higher longevity and
efficiently manage all the devices with-
robustness.
in buildings.
 Catalysts to exhibit oil stability over
 Materials for outdoor smart lighting.
time; upgrading to fungible biofuel.
 Materials for energy conservation and
 Materials allowing for exploration and
efficiency in construction, such as ad-
extraction in a harsh environment (es-
vanced glass, insulating materials, ce-
pecially those that address corrosion).
ramics, coatings, etc.
2. Energy transmission
 Nanostructured antireflection coat-
 Materials for high-power electronic ings, photonic crystal, plasmonic guid-
systems. ing and other nanoscale coupling
structures to reduce reflection losses
 New materials with conducting and
and improve light capture.
superconducting properties for trans-
mission of large electrical currents  Radically-advanced construction con-
over long distances without energy cepts such as integrated and intelli-
losses. gent agent systems, programmable
nano-materials and nano- construc-
 Materials for electricity, gas and hy-
tors, bio-mimetic materials, structures
drogen distribution; pipelines for cap-
and facility systems.
tured CO2 (such as new ceramic mate-
rials).  Active phase-changing materials that
control the climate within the house.
 Advanced materials for overhead
transmission: high-temperature con-  New nanoporous insulating materials
ductors suitable for use on both that enhance insulation.
transmission and distribution circuits
 Radiant barriers in ceilings and walls to
to increase their thermal ratings, im-
reduce heat loss by over 50 per cent
proved insulation systems.
by reflecting or absorbing infrared ra-
 Advanced materials for under- diation.
ground/submarine transmission: high

32
 Durable materials with prolonged and Such processes will be critical to strength-
predictable service life under aggres- en the global competitiveness of the Euro-
sive conditions, featuring self- pean transport industry.
assessment and non-intrusive in-situ
inspection techniques. It must be noted that advanced materials
are used now in the transport industry to a
 Compound semiconductors ingots and very large extent. This may be seen in the
wafers for Solid State Lighting. advanced cars produced today.
 Efficient lighting in the form of light
Advanced cars begin with a chassis of
emitting diodes: LEDs, OLEDs. Materi-
complex aluminium composite. In many
als for LED device performance.
cases they are covered with nano en-
 Materials for electrochromic ‘smart’ hanced, self-healing coatings, with anti-
windows (OLAE, chips), advanced ma- reflex windows produced of advanced
terials (nanostructured silver chloride glass. The interiors are filled-in with ad-
or halide, photochromic production). vanced electronics and sensors. Finally,
energy supply in combustion vehicles uses
 Materials for high quality, low cost
a number of composites based on poly-
optical transceiver modules.
mers and ceramic materials. The future
 Materials replacing silicon with higher holds more environmentally-friendly solu-
speed properties. tions, with advanced materials used for
efficient energy storage as well as materi-
als for alternative energy production (hy-
4.1.4 Smart, green and integrated drogen fuel cells, photovoltaics, and so on).
transport
The ‘green’ aspect of transport is very
‘Transport is rightly considered (...) as a key much aligned with two other Grand Chal-
societal challenge. It should be also kept in lenges described here– ‘resource efficiency
mind that transport is a key condition for and climate action’ and ‘secure, clean and
42
competitiveness.’ efficient energy’. Further examples of ap-
plications of Value Added Materials for
Value Added Materials will play a central transport will be developed in other sec-
role in one of the key grand challenges: tions.
green transport.
4.1.5 Supply of raw materials
Innovative solutions for transport address
materials and manufacturing processes for Raw materials are not a key subject of this
lower fuel consumption and development study. VAMs in this context shall be seen
of alternative fuel sources. Materials sci- rather as alternatives for raw materials. In
ence is engaged in developing new con- fact, current problems with raw materials
struction materials for roads and rail roads, availability have put VAMs into the fore-
as well as materials for transport security. front of political discussion.

The European Commission claims that 14


critical raw materials used for high tech
42 Informal discussion with stakeholders on the transport component products such as mobile phones, laptop
of the next common strategic framework for research and innovation, computers and clean technologies are in
Brussels, 16 June 2011.
http://ec.europa.eu/research/horizon2020/pdf/workshops/smart_gree danger of shortage. Increased recycling of
n_integrated_transport/summary_report_workshop_on_16_june_201 products containing these materials will be
1.pdf#view=fit&pagemode=none
33
needed in the future. The list includes The experts identified another approach:
cobalt, gallium, indium and magnesium. increased recycling of raw materials to
They are increasingly used for ‘emerging reduce demand side of the market. There-
technologies’ but are mined in only a few fore one response to the raw materials
countries such as China, Russia and Mon- challenge is more research on how to recy-
golia. These countries could either manipu- cle technically-challenging products and
late the supply of these critical materials or improve collection. Here again Value Add-
take environmental action that may jeop- ed Materials might be of use in the design
ardise EU imports. of such advanced recycling systems.

After recent problems with materials avail-


ability from China, EU is working to secure
supplies of these minerals from outside the
EU, such as from Latin America, Africa and
Russia. The EU also started stockpiling— to
better profit from the material that we
43
have here.

Demand from emerging technologies (in-


cluding demand for rare earths) is ex-
pected to increase significantly by 2030,
44
according to EU estimates.

Materials experts whom we interviewed


described this situation as influencing the
possibilities for large development of ma-
terials’ technologies. Our informants noted
the difficulties of replacing critical raw
materials which sets the stage for devel-
opment of VAMs’ market, especially in the
field of catalysts and materials for energy
storage. They also said that without a
technological breakthrough it will not be
possible to fully reduce the market need
for critical raw materials.

43 Andrea Maresi, press officer for EU Industry Commissioner


Antonio Tajani.
44 Report of the Ad hoc group on defining critical raw materials, June

2010, Brussels.
http://ec.europa.eu/enterprise/policies/raw-
materials/files/docs/report-b_en.pdf ,
http://europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=IP/10/752
&format=HT and
http://europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=MEMO/10/
263&format=HTML&aged=0&language=EN&guiLanguage=en
34
Figure 2: Production concentration of critical raw mineral materials

Sources: U.S. Geological Survey; Johnson Matthey; British Geological Survey. Information graphic by Tommy McCall and Mike Orcutt, ‘Tech-
nology Review’ by MIT.
Some percentages do not add up to 100 due to rounding. 2010 global production figures are estimates. U.S. production figures for selenium
and indium are withheld. The historical production of lithium refers to lithium ore.

35
VAMs have the potential to substitute for reduce emissions of heat-trapping gases by
raw materials. Still, interviewed experts using the technology, know-how, and prac-
see such applications as challenges for tical solutions already at our disposal. Sec-
future research. ondly the strategy purses promising new
technologies, including Value Added Mate-
According to the secondary sources of this rials, that will enable us to produce highly
study, the research and industry deploy- efficient products with less pollution,
ments in nearest future will focus on: thanks to knowledge-intensive production
processes.
 improved physical methods for miner-
als concentration (enrichment of non-
ferrous ores, froth flotation); Interviews again revealed the im-
portant relationship between the
 new technologies for production of research of Value Added Materials
precious metals; and their market implementation.
 development of chloride metallurgy; Although by definition VAMs are
 processing systems for re-use and knowledge intensive, their market
recycling; implementation is dependent on
relatively simple (short and inexpen-
 innovative use of alternative energy sive) production processes. Only the
sources for processing raw materials VAMs that are able to be used in
and metals recovery. mass production with high cost effi-
ciency have the potential of address-
ing environmental challenges. This is
4.1.6 Resource efficiency and climate due to the direct linkage between
action complexity, cost and pollution impact
of the production processes. The
Global warming is no doubt one of the
more complicated the production
most serious problems facing humanity
process, the more energy it takes;
today. Two separate dimensions of global
therefore the VAM becomes more
warming correspond to different kinds of
expensive and finally more polluting.
advanced technologies under discussion.
First is the prevention of the global warm-
ing itself (reduction of emissions, clean
The European Commission followed this
production, less pollution in general). Se-
strategy to tackle global warming since the
cond is the technological efforts to miti-
introduction of climate-related initiatives
gate the consequences of global warming
in 1991, when it issued the first Communi-
(natural disasters such as flooding, forest
ty strategy to limit carbon dioxide (CO 2)
fires, hurricanes, desertification).
emissions and improve energy efficiency.
Global warming is also connected with Several important directives were intro-
other Grand Challenges, as it will have an duced at that time, including those to
impact on the long-term health and eco- promote electricity from renewable ener-
nomic well-being of current and future gy, voluntary commitments by car makers
generations. to reduce CO2 emissions by 25 per cent
and proposals on the taxation of energy
In order to prevent a downward spiral, the products. All those fields benefit from
current strategy underlines the need to implementation of Value Added Materials.

36
Examples include filters, protection and  high strength, low weight materials to
isolation films, new combustion sources, reduce weight and friction, and there-
energy storage and electricity grids. fore fuel consumption and CO2 emis-
sions (advanced composites, alloys
However, it is clear that action by both and sandwich structures, near net
Member States and the European Com- shape materials);
munity need to be reinforced, if the EU is
to succeed in cutting its greenhouse gas  materials reducing maintenance (low
emissions to 8per cent below 1990 levels thermal expansion polymer matrix
by 2008-2012, as required by the Kyoto nanocomposites, super hard nanocrys-
Protocol. On the political level this was talline metals, alloys and intermetal-
supported by the EU Council of Environ- lics);
ment Ministers, who acknowledged the  multimaterials (hybrid) systems: met-
importance of taking further steps at als-plastic, ceramics-metals, compo-
Community level by asking the Commission sites, Al-Steel, metal-rubber, plastic-
to put forward a list of priority actions and TPEs, plastic-metal-TPEs for automo-
policy measures. The Commission re- tive applications;
sponded in June 2000 by launching the
European Climate Change Programme  functionally graded materials and self-
(ECCP). The political dimension and com- lubricant coatings for critical working
mitment later on was strengthened environments (engines, sensors, me-
through the engagement of the European chanical components, bifuel and
Commission in the development of tech- trifuel engines, energy or fuel storage);
nologies, particularly in the context of the  high temperature materials (thermal
framework programmes (FPs). Industrial barrier coatings, nanocoatings, ceram-
technologies play a crucial role in the ic thin film coatings) for engine com-
Commission’s portfolio of tools, and are ponents, turbines resistant to corro-
strongly represented in European FPs, sion, wear, creep, temperatures;
especially with the NMP priority in FP6 and
FP7.  catalytic and photo-catalytic materials
and nanostructured coatings for dif-
The second European Climate Change ferent applications (new combustion
Programme (ECCP II), which was launched systems, alternative fuels, micro-
in October 2005, is still influencing the combustion, environmental treat-
shape of the strategic dimensions of re- ment);
search conducted in FP7.
 materials for embedded sensors, to
In spite of all political actions, the most improve data acquisition, on-line mon-
important source of CO2 emissions world- itoring and new designs;
wide is caused by the transportation of  environmentally friendly coatings for
goods and people. Fossil fuel combustion transport components (free of Cd, Cr,
generates more than 90 per cent of the and Pb);
world’s CO2 emissions.
 biodegradable and renewable materi-
Several materials applications are able to als (lubricants, fuels, plastics) to re-
address this fossil fuel combustion chal- duce the CO2 emissions;
lenge:
 advanced road surface and bridge
materials;
37
 materials for electronic paper as an Defence Equipment Policy’ emphasises the
alternative to conventional books, need for effective cooperation between
newspapers and magazines. national research programmes in the field
of global security. The idea is to concen-
After fossil fuel combustion the next two
trate on a few carefully selected subjects
areas with high CO2 emission impact are
of advanced technology accompanied by
iron, steel and cement production.
specific measures.
As indicated in the interviews future re-
Security is an evolving issue that presents
search on VAMs shall include
many challenges to the EU. It impacts a
new/improved methods of steel and ce-
wide range of existing and emerging EU
ment production in order to minimise their
policies (include competitiveness,
environmental impact. . Some expert opin-
transport, environment, energy, health,
ions indicate the need for new research to
consumer protection, finances, trade,
change the chemical processes behind
space and telecommunications). It is a
production of cement.
critical consideration of the Common For-
eign and Security Policy (CFSP) and the
European Security and Defence Policy
4.1.7 Inclusive, innovative and secure (ESDP). The research policy plays a cross-
societies cutting role to target threats and reduce
citizens’ concerns, helping to protect
This grand challenge is in fact composed of against terrorist threats.
three separate issues. Openness of socie-
ties is hardly connectable with discussion The Union needs to use a range of instru-
on advance materials; nevertheless in a ments to deal with such current hazards as
larger context security is fundamental for terrorism, proliferation of weapons of
society’s ability to be open. An innovative mass destruction, failed states, regional
society, meanwhile, is the overwhelming conflicts and organised crime. Industrial
factor motivating this study. Therefore in technologies can give the necessary assis-
this section we will only address the securi- tance, offering scientific innovations in the
ty issues that can be directly answered area of detection, monitoring and early
with material science. warning systems and technologies. Value
Added Materials are often used for pro-
Current developments in the Arab coun- duction of final products used in the area
tries in Northern Africa, mass migrations of security.
influencing southern European countries
and growing terrorist risks put security in Technology itself cannot guarantee securi-
forefront for industrial technologies and ty, but security without the support of
novel materials research. The European technology is impossible. It provides in-
security strategy, ‘A Secure Europe in a formation about dangers, helps to build
Better World’, endorsed by the European effective protection against them and, if
Council in December 2003, outlines the necessary, enables designated agencies to
global challenges and key threats in this neutralize them. In other words: technolo-
area. gy is a key ‘force enabler’ for a more se-
cure Europe. Space technologies are a
The Commission Communication from perfect illustration of this: A decision as to
2003 on ‘The European Defence and indus- whether global positioning or earth obser-
trial and market issues – Towards an EU vation systems, for example, are to be

38
used for defence and security purposes is ty, complementing their use in non-
primarily political in character, not techno- photonic fields such as catalysis.
logical. In any case, any developed system
 Material engineering in oxides and
will very likely use Value Added Materials
chalcogenides: while these materials
for many of its applications.
have been known for a long time,
 Secondary sources for our security nanotechnology offers new possibili-
discussion contain mostly materials ties to utilise phenomena such as
applications within the fields of optics, phase changes to significantly alter op-
electronics, data transfer and ad- tical characteristics in a way not
vanced armours and body protection achieved with other materials.
systems. VAMs possess trans-sectoral  Materials for ultraviolet and mid-
applicability in surveillance, military infrared devices and fibres, including
personal communication systems and acousto-optic materials and Faraday
personal security. New materials for rotators for optical isolators.
electronics: materials for supercon-
ductors, polymeric conductors and  Organic phosphor materials for solid-
semiconductors, dielectrics, capaci- state lighting, to achieve higher light
tors, photo resists, laser materials, lu- conversion efficiencies than inorganic
minescent materials for displays, as materials at significantly lower cost.
well as new adhesives, solders and  Nanoparticle integration in dielectric
packaging materials. coating matrices for the development
 New materials in the field of optical of improved optical switches, laser
data transfer: non-linear optics mate- concepts and sensors.
rials, responsive optical materials for  Advanced polymer coatings which
molecular switches, refractive materi- exhibit superior functional properties
als and fibre optics materials for opti- for photonic devices at low cost. It is
cal cables. possible to modify the physical, me-
 Metamaterials for photonics (synthetic chanical and chemical characteristics
materials, mostly nanostructured): of polymers in order to increase the
Photonic crystals, quantum dots (in- functionality of optical devices. One
cluding composite colloidal nanoparti- example is including nanoparticles in
cles in a glass or polymer matrix or the polymer matrix. Polymers also
semiconductor media) and materials provide the key to flexible optical de-
exhibiting negative permittivity or vices whilst the combination of poly-
permeability or both. mers with semiconductor materials
will give rise to novel components
 Group IV photonics: this includes sili- such as those based on optofluidics.
con (Si) and its combination with ger-
manium (Ge) and tin (Sn) for applica-  Graphene and carbon-based materials
tions such as modulators and light have highly desirable electronic prop-
sources with higher optical functionali- erties such as ultrahigh mobility, pos-
ty and performance. sibility of innovative approaches to
bandgap engineering, and ballistic
 Carbon nanotubes and graphene, transport at room temperature. Also
which offer new vistas in photonics they have excellent thermoelectric
with their high absorption and mobili-

39
properties, mechanical strength and gether and in context, lead us to the con-
electromechanical properties. clusion that VAMs knowledge intensive
production processes must be patent pro-
 Manufacturing of low-power non-
tected in order to assure competitive ad-
volatile 4M-bit carbon-based memo-
vantage on the market. Simultaneously this
ries with equivalent switching perfor-
is one way of preventing VAMs from be-
mance as SRAMs.
coming a commodity over time. Only ma-
 Carbon-based memories with ultra- terials that are protected by intellectual
low power consumption and non- property regulations for 20 years will be
volatility that serves as universal able to maintain the competitive ad-
memory. vantage on the market. Limiting the com-
petition through patents provides the
 Materials for ‘harsh environment necessary incentive to research and devel-
skin’— close-to-body protective mate- opment, and rewards inventiveness.
rials for harsh environments.
 Materials for radiation-hardened Time to market
chips, sensors and radars, PV modules.
Time to market indicates the length of time
 Lightweight structures for satellites it takes from a product’s conception until it
and observations systems. is available for sale. This term is crucial for
Value Added Materials, as well as for all
 Materials for structures giving stiff-
other industry products and services. All
ness/low mass/thermal properties,
interviewed experts saw the time to mar-
electrical-combined properties, mois-
ket as far too long for VAMs. Examples
ture insensitive (non-hydroscopic)
given by car producers and aircrafts pro-
properties.
ducers confirm that the average time to
 Materials for high-speed data pro- market in these industries is around 20
cessing. years. This in reality is how long it takes
before a new material gets from lab to
demonstration, through tests and certifica-
tions, and finally to production. In fact
4.2 Business challenges today’s cars and planes are built with ma-
Experts interviewed for this study clearly terials invented in the early ‘80s.
set forth several business-related issues.
European research programmes must
Seen in the context of existing economic
consider this particular factor in their plan-
limitations on the markets for VAMs, these
ning. Investors we interviewed clearly
concerns illuminate ways to address the
stated that it might be more reasonable for
Grand Challenges with greater strength.
future research programmes to demon-
Patent protection strate a more business-based approach by
investing in ideas where the market im-
Our definition of Value Added Materials in plementation is closer and the product life
chapter 3 lists two important factors to cycle may start sooner. Venture capital
consider while discussing the new and market advisors and business angels’ net-
advanced materials on the market today. works have to gain profits from the busi-
These are knowledge intensivity in produc- ness ideas they support. The obvious con-
tion process and competitive advantage on clusion is to learn from them when select-
the market. These two factors, taken to- ing research to be financed.

40
Another very strong opinion from the in- chicken-and-egg dilemma appears. To
terviews is that we ‘just’ have to imple- create a market for a material, it must be
ment all technologies available today in produced in large quantity in order to be
order to deal with the societal challenges. profitable, but new markets have an inher-
In other words, the technological sophisti- ent risk of too-small demand.
cation exists now. It is the means that is
lagging. From the perspective of 2020, Economies of scale and scope
there is no time for new research. 45
Economies of scale occur when increas-
Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) ing production volumes permit significant
need to be supported lowering of average cost. Because of the
small volumes in typical production runs,
SMEs are considered the primary innova- scale economies are rarely exhibited and
tion actors in developing the VAMs and are not a feature of new and advanced
their applications. But SMEs still encounter materials supply. Once volumes become
problems when striving to finance their large and scale economies occur, the ma-
projects, reach the market and make their terial is, by definition, neither new nor
products known to customers, while build- advanced.
ing solid networks that would help them
promote their VAMs. The role of private Economies of scope are likely to be more
equity and venture capital is highlighted in important for some new materials than
this context. economies of scale. Economies of scope
are characterised by cost reductions
Too high production costs achieved through the jointness of some
costs in producing differentiated products
For a VAM to be considered interesting, it (that is, the integration of manufacturing
should be 30 per cent cheaper or perform options so that the same processes pro-
30 per cent better. This is the rule of duce different goods). The associated in-
thumb when replacing an old material with crease in product variety enables produc-
a new one in the open market. The excep- ers to be flexible in fulfilling customer
tion is fulfilling a regulation that bans the needs. There are significant economies of
old materials for reasons of health risks, scope where new and advanced materials
CO2 emissions and so on. The next several (such as engineering ceramics) are tailor-
sections examine why. made. However, economies of scope can
be difficult to achieve. The use of more
The scale-up problem specialized materials, unique design, and
the level of skills required are all expensive
The up-scaling step – taking a technical
to duplicate, and can discourage entry into
solution from the research laboratory to
niche markets.
industry production — is very difficult to
make. There must be a sufficient market Businesses working with VAMs are gener-
for the product and a scalable production ally associated with high risk and large
technology behind the idea. This is the capital intensivity
‘valley of death’ problem: a lot of very
valuable materials are created in labs but
the step into industrial application has not
been achieved. Manufacturers cannot
produce them at industrial scale at an
45 Australian Industry Commission, New and advanced materials
economically reasonable price, and thus a report no. 42, 1995.
41
The investors emphasised that work with The investors’ views can be summarised as
VAMs is a high-risk type of businesses. follows:
Capital intensiveness, commercialization
risks, technology risks — all these factors  too capital intensive (example: hydro-
influence capital funds’ willingness to allo- gen storage);
cate resources.  political complexity (example: hydro-
power, nuclear power);
Quotations garnered from our interviews
reflect these factors:  limited market (example: wave ener-
gy);
‘There [are] a lot of interesting things in materi-
als science — the point is nevertheless to identi-  market not ready (example: energy
fy the commercial need for it. It’s not that easy storage);
to see it often. It could be a really light and
durable material, but you need 1 billion dollars  technological challenges (example:
to commercialize it — the magnitude of money superconductivity facing complex
is very large here — on billion scales — the risk technical problems, fuel cells, batter-
is tremendous and the time perspective is large. ies — lot of R&D resources were in-
The material may be cool, but the amount of vested with little success, hydropower
investments needed and the risks involved — no mature technology);
outweigh its potential to pay off.’
 lack of trust in market potential;
‘You need to consider different commercial
needs that you believe in, that are not only  not profitable business (example:
technically do-able, but also manufactured in transports, environmental related
such a way that it brings a high yield, with not- businesses, unless policy regulates the
so-high production costs and not-so-high risks.’ market);
‘People come with new materials and technolo-  investor doesn’t know much about the
gies all the time, but these produce small specific market (example: prostheses
changes in very complicated systems and re- or biomaterials);
quire [a] huge amount of money. It takes a long
time, depending on what they do. Even if in the  risky business (example: health effects
lab the results are good it may not be the same of nanotechnologies);
when tested in the industry. Many don’t under-
stand how much time and money it takes to  overinvested sector (example: ICT).
bring a new technology to the market. It is
Many interviewed investors, especially
common that people put a lot of money in R&D
those who invest in clean tech and med
of a material and then they search for its appli-
cations: i.e. start from the technical side and try tech, are materials or technology experts
to match with some commercial needs. These themselves or have other technical back-
applications can pay for all [the] money you grounds. They are updated with the re-
need to invest, but one needs to start from the search and developments in their field—
commercial side.’ they have a clear view on where the break-
throughs are happening and the potential
of development in the field.
Reasons for not investing The decision of how to invest partly re-
flects the companies’ current investment
Our informants revealed several reasons
portfolio and partly the respondent’s as-
for not investing in new developing busi-
sessment on the future of a potential in-
nesses in the area of materials industry.

42
vestment. Key factors affecting invest- longer time frames (10 to 20 years) and ICT
ment decisions in VAM-related businesses and health having shorter time frames (2
to 10 years).
 if the business provides a unique posi-
tion on the market;
 if the business is innovative;
 if the business responds to a market
need;
 if the invention is or can be patented,
or protected by other legal measures;
 if the business has good managers and
driving leaders;
 applicability and scalability of the
material;
 solid intellectual property structure;
 readiness of the market.
Excerpts from our interviews add context
to the above factors. ‘You try to find whether
the technology has a unique precision when it
comes in the market, what sort of influence it
will have on the market. Innovativeness is clear-
ly important, but also it has to have a market
potential — that there is a market need for it.’

‘As for all VC it is important that you can protect


that by a patent, you need to have a good IP
position with regards to the competitors.’

‘[I]t is important to have the people behind the


company, who can drive this process and man-
age the development.’

‘You pick areas where you think that the com-


pany will achieve a unique position in the mar-
ket.’

‘It may be a very noble technology, but the


market is not ready for that. The market needs
to react and show that they are willing to pay
for it.’

The exit time for these businesses (mostly


VC) varies from 3 to 5 (mostly) up to 10 to
12 years depending on industries, technol-
ogy types and applications, with the energy
and environment tending to have even

43
Chapter 5. Qualitative and quantitative Value
Added Materials market analysis by sector

At the request of European Commission, ‘closing period’ of the venture capital


the approach of this study was to investi- funds.
gate venture capital investors, business
angels and investment banks advisors in Following the general theory of the private
order to get a picture of their possible equity business, most venture capital funds
46
investments strategies and most promising have a fixed life of 10 years, with the
investment areas for the future. possibility of a few years of extensions to
allow for private companies still seeking
5.1 General investment split liquidity. The investing cycle for most funds
is generally three to five years, after which
Interviewed market investors expressed the focus is managing and making follow-
the opinion that most of the early stage on investments in an existing portfolio.
and seed capital investments in advanced This model was pioneered by successful
materials are not dedicated to a pre- funds in Silicon Valley through the 1980s to
selected particular sector. Investment in invest in technological trends broadly but
research on new materials brings uncer- only during their period of ascendance,
tainty but also possible diversity of future and to cut exposure to management and
applications. Investors at this stage make marketing risks of any individual firm or its
decisions based on the available flow of product.
investment opportunities and general
strategy of the fund. Because of these two Investors interviewed in this study ex-
factors, their investments are largely pre- pressed a clear division in this regard be-
defined. tween the selected sectors. While ICT in-
vestments are considered ‘faster’, energy,
For the purpose of this study they were health and environment sectors are con-
asked to conduct a very open exercise: sidered to be long-run investments. There-
Freely allocate a hypothetical fund into a fore in one venture capital cycle, we might
number of sectors, indicating potential expect 3 to 4 investing cycles in ICT related
future market growth, based on their best deals, and only 1 or 2 cycles in other sec-
guesses and overview of current situation. tors where investment requires more than
5 years and sometimes even 10 to 12 years
The interviews revealed that investment engagement.
specialists were able to discuss potential
split of investments in the future on a sec- When it comes to expected Return on
tor level. It was nevertheless difficult for Investment (RoI) it seems that most of the
them to provide more precise divisions investors are influenced not by the sector
regarding detailed, expected future alloca- but the business idea or technology behind
tions per sub sector or application area. the potential investment deal. In other

They also estimated the investment time-


scale for private equity. The general ap-
proach is defined here by the so-called
46 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venture_capital
44
words, the sector and subsector may not and the time frame. One must remember
seem to be very lucrative in general terms, that it is impossible to define precisely
but the business may still have the poten- investors’ expectations with regard to RoI.
tial to generate very high RoI. In most of Expectations are different each time. Ex-
the interviews the average expected RoI pectations are also high, since each inves-
from a single deal was estimated to be in tor wants to multiply his/her investment.
the range of between 20 to 30 per cent, One must also remember that out of a
but as stated before some businesses have number of different deals in one venture
a shorter investment time frame than the capital fund portfolio, some investments
entire fund duration. In general, the longer will never lead to successful commerciali-
the engagement, the higher RoI expected. zation, and only a limited number of com-
The RoI expected from VAM-related busi- panies financed bring multiple, sometimes
ness varies depending on the type and astronomical RoI.
stage of the company, the industry sector

Figure 3: Investment willingness for VAMs by sector

Source: Oxford Research AS. Percentage calculated from averages based on values of portfolio allocation (n=12).

The willingness of the interviewed inves- ment advisors. They reasoned that large
tors to allocate their funds into invest- enterprises’ own research investments
ments connected with development and made their involvement unnecessary and
market implementation of Value Added that these industries were largely ad-
Materials is demonstrated in Figure 3. dressed by private capital in past decades
Interviewees clearly believe that the most (especially ICT industry).
promising investment sectors of the future
are energy and environment, which make Note that ICT is not fully reflected in this
up more than 60 per cent of the available study. This particular sector is mostly com-
hypothetical portfolio. ICT and automotive posed of services and software, so that
were not highly ranked by private invest- materials do not influence the market size
directly. Our respondents were only asked
45
to give their opinion about investing in
projects related to materials. Therefore the
ICT sector is underestimated in our hypo-
thetical allocations exercise, although
some investors define semi-conductors,
micro- and nano-electronics and the like as
‘ICT hardware’.

The specificity of the investments is also


important for this study. Interviewees
claimed that this type of investment in
highly risky ideas is mostly addressed by
private investors — venture capital funds
and private equity business. Banks do not
tend to operate within this kind of highly
demanding and risky market. Stock market
investors will also be far from this kind of
investments since by definition such actors
may invest only in companies already es-
tablished on the stock market with a prop-
er public securities structure. Investors
interviewed also indicated another im-
portant player for the development of
research: large industry actors with their
own research facilities, agendas and budg-
ets.

A different set of interviews conducted


simultaneously with materials experts
representing research centres of such
larger companies was not included in the
results above, since this group was purely
oriented in research within their industry
(such as automotive, construction materi-
als, etc.) and did not have an overview of
the investment market trends.

46
5.2 Overview of sectoral investment willingness
The following charts present results of the into research-oriented ‘deals’ of venture
investigation of investors’ willingness to capital and private equity investors.
allocate resources within each of the sec-
tors within the scope of this study. Please note that the less ‘popular’ the
sector was, the lower the number of valid
Their willingness is understood in this con- opinions regarding detailed investment
text in terms of portfolio allocation. Each directions. Investors could not give more
of respondents could allocate a hypothet- detailed split, as their decisions are based
ical portfolio of investment fund into dif- on availability of good business ideas, and
ferent (predefined) sectors. The percent- not reflecting any particular subsector
ages demonstrated below show therefore categories.
the size of potential financial allocations
Figure 4: Investment willingness for VAMs in the energy sector

Source: Oxford Research AS. Percentage calculated from averages based on values of portfolio allocation (n=10).

Within the energy sector — which promis- Following this were the investments in
es the most growth potential in the future materials for energy generation and
— our study indicated the biggest potential transmission. Finally, energy savings had
in the energy storage field, which garnered reasonable share of the potential future
one-third of the possible investments. This market and thus was ranked fourth in this
indicates that batteries and energy storage sector.
in large grids are critical issues for future
development of many areas of the econo-
my.

47
Figure 5: Investment willingness for VAMs in environment sector

Source: Oxford Research AS. Percentage calculated from averages based on values of portfolio allocation (n=5).

The willingness to invest in the environ- Another prospective area was solid waste
mental sector was focused on water tech- management and related technologies
nologies. All areas — from water treat- (also related to technologies focusing on
ment, desalination to waste water tech- energy production from solid waste). The-
nologies — took up to 48 per cent of the se subsectors take more than three-
potential investments. quarters of total environmental sector
allocations.

Figure 6: Investment willingness for VAMs in health sector

Source: Oxford Research AS. Percentage calculated from averages based on values of portfolio allocation (n=5).

48
The health sector is largely dominated by of prostheses and biomaterials for regen-
large drug manufacturers with their re- erative medicine is considered a huge
search-oriented agendas and own labora- market for intensive development in the
tories. Still the health sector is very inter- future. These are seen as highly profitable
esting for VC and PE (Venture Capital and niche markets where a high innovativeness
Private Equity) in terms of producing medi- and knowledge intensivity play crucial
cal equipment, new technologies for diag- roles.
nosis and their related substances. Delivery
Figure 7: Investment willingness for VAMs in ICT sector

Source: Oxford Research AS. Percentage calculated from averages based on values of portfolio allocation (n=3).

The willingness to invest in transport ac- used in all transport environments. For
counted for 7 per cent of investors’ alloca- these reasons investors were not able to
tions demonstrated at Figure 3 was not give any information on the division of
depicted in form of graph since there was their possible investments in this sector,
no division in their answers. following the possible subsector divisions.

The main reason for this is that the Investors consider that the applications
transport sector is normally divided by the developed in other sectors will be applied
mean of transportation including such in the transport sector as a matter of
categories as water, road, rail, air and course, and therefore they are not inter-
space. A second approach to possible sec- ested in directly investing. However weight
tor division is two-fold: passenger reduction and the role of lightweight mate-
transport and goods transport. In all cases rials is perceived as crucial for this sector.
the use of materials is not determined so
much according to this possible market 5.3 Findings from interviews
segment division, but rather by the mate-
rial usability. For example, the ultra-light Interviewees give different estimates of
and highly durable materials for transport future market shares of VAMs and differ-
will be used in many transport subsectors ent assessments in terms of percentages.
as they will lower the fuel consumption of Still, patterns clearly show confidence in
the vehicle. Also energy storage and highly future potential market growths. The diffi-
efficient fuel cells have the potential to be culty of assessment of market size is

49
caused by the nature of VAMs, which can- ed earlier, it is not possible to separate
not be separated from the production the materials from the production and
process and integration. VAMs are used in integration processes. VAMs value de-
combination with other materials, tech- pends on streamlined integration solu-
nologies and structures. Materials are just tions, and their position in the value
the beginning of the feeding chain of the chain.
industrial system. It is difficult to ‘put a
 Price of VAMs application will matter.
finger’ on a specific VAM or group of
The markets for VAMs will depend on
VAMs. Segmenting VAMs is also difficult
the ability of the VAM to be produced
because of overlap across sectors. These
with low costs. Price is important
overlaps will always influence the market
when it comes to the competitiveness
segmentation and the value-chain struc-
of a material. If there is a cheaper,
ture.
non-VAM material available, industry
On the other hand all the respondents will choose it. Customers will not buy
express confidence that the share of mate- VAMs at any price just because of
rials will increase the future, although they their functionality or potential for re-
say it is difficult to give numbers due to ducing CO2 emissions or environmen-
complexity of the nature of the VAMs and tal pollution. This is especially true if
their context. Typical expressions used the price of the specific VAM is much
with respect to VAMs markets are ‘the higher. However, the success of the
markets will increase dramatically’ and ‘we organic food and green building mar-
see significant increase in the coming kets, with ‘natural’ higher-cost prod-
years.’ ucts, show that consumers will pay a
reasonable higher price for a per-
The development of VAMs markets de- ceived improvement in quality that is
pend on a range of factors in line with their personal values.
 Producers will consider the total price
 The development of materials markets
for these materials and final costs of
also depends on the political environ-
the entire applica-
ment: regulations, policies to support
tion/device/structure for industrial
renewable sources of energy as well as
production. If development of tech-
numerous other factors. For example,
nology implies multimillion invest-
nuclear energy, along with the range
ments, these costs will play a role.
of VAMs specifically associated with it,
is subject to political uncertainty. Reg-  VAMs need to be produced and used
ulations of CO2 emissions and other under the conditions of energy sav-
environmental requirements also in- ing/energy effective production pro-
fluence the markets. cesses and with minimal CO2 emis-
sions in order to develop and sustain
 Emerging markets for the VAMs will
their markets.
depend on the concomitant develop-
ment of technologies and manufactur- Market growth areas for materials indi-
ing systems that use these different cated by interviewees:
materials.
 catalysts;
 The markets for the VAMs will depend
on solutions integrating VAMs in dif-  clean tech;
ferent structures and devices. As stat-
 novel pharmaceuticals;
50
 tissue repair;  Transport sector: lightweight materi-
als.
 diagnostic technologies;
 Industrial tools, machines, equipment
 advanced sensors and monitoring
and devices that are used to manufac-
systems (in all industries);
ture VAMs and further integrate them
 coatings (currently large market, with into systems.
large market potential in the future);
‘Old’ markets and structural materials
 intelligent packaging;
The metals that are widely used today in
 batteries (if a breakthrough happens); construction, transport, and other sectors
 advanced composites; — steel, aluminium, copper — already
have well-established markets. Entire in-
 lightweight materials (currently very dustries build on them and are developing
limited scale, but it will increase in the metallic alloys and hybrid solutions. VAMs
future); cannot replace these materials entirely, at
least not until 2030 or even 2050. Instead
 fuel cells (currently limited market, but
VAM technologies and production pro-
bound to increase in the future, espe-
cesses can enhance the existing materials
cially with government subsidies);
by providing them with superior proper-
 bio-based materials; ties, multifunctionality, and making their
production more energy efficient.
 nano structures and thin films;
 superconductivity (if a breakthrough ‘There is a danger in focusing lot of effort and
resources on certain types of materials and not
that could substitute copper wires oc-
even know what their markets will be and at the
curs); same time ignore the basic materials that still
 LEDs. are fundamentally used in many industrial
sectors.’
Key industrial sectors where VAMs will
play an important role, according to the
interviewees
5.4 Emerging technologies within
 Energy (generation, distribution, stor- materials
age and efficiency — all the subcate-
gories): Huge market opportunities, A good complement to the picture given by
but also important area with regard to our expert investors is the yearly MIT
focus on the Grand Challenges. ‘Technology Review’ assessment of emerg-
ing technologies. MIT investigates the most
 Environment: interconnected with the
promising technologies and materials-
energy sector. A cross-cutting sector
related research of the last decade, looking
across the other industry sectors.
for those that have a potential to produce
 Health: medical devices, biomaterials. the greatest impact on our societies. An
Tissue engineering, nanostructures overview is presented in Table 2.
considered as big markets, also deal-
ing with challenges of the ageing soci-
ety.

51
52

Table 3: An overview of top emerging technologies within materials and the research centres working on these in the last decade.
System / Description Material Sector Centre of Excellence
Year Technology
Smart Controlling the flow of electricity to stabilize the Semiconductors based Energy North Carolina State University; Others working on smart trans-
Transform- grid on compounds of formers: Amantys, Cambridge, U.K.; Cree, Durham, North Caroli-
ers silicon and carbon or na; Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, California
gallium and nitrogen
Cancer The use of sequencing to study the genomes of Health and Washington University, St. Louis, Missouri; Others working on
Genomics diseased cells Biotechnology cancer genomics: BC Cancer Agency, Vancouver; Broad Institute,
Cambridge, Massachusetts; Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute,
Hixton, U.K.
2011
Solid-StateSmaller and lighter lithium batteries will make Not revealed Transport, Sakti3, Ann Arbor, Michigan; Others working on solid-state batter-
Batteries electric vehicles more competitive, as liquid Energy ies: Planar Energy, Orlando, Florida; Seeo, Berkeley, California;
electrolyte is replaced with a thin layer of material Toyota, Toyota City, Japan
that's not flammable
Separating A matchbox-size device uses tiny valves, chan- Health and Stanford University; Others working on separating chromosomes:
Chromo- nels, and chambers to separate the 23 pairs of Biotechnology Complete Genomics, Mountain View, California; Scripps Re-
somes chromosomes in the human genome so they can search Institute, San Diego, California; University of Washington
be analysed individually
Engineered Transforming adult cells into stem cells called iPS Health and Cellular Dynamics, Madison, Wisconsin Others working on engi-
Stem Cells cells Biotechnology neered stem cells: Fate Therapeutics, San Diego, CA; iPierian,
South San Francisco, CA.; Children's Hospital Boston, Boston,
MA; Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
Light- Depositing nanoparticles made of silver on thin- Thin-film photovoltaic Energy Australian National University,Canberra; Others working on light-
Trapping film photovoltaic cells increase the cells' efficien- cells trapping photovoltaics: Caltech, Pasadena, CA; University of New
Photovolta- cy, which could make solar power more competi- South Wales, Australia; FOM-Institute for Atomic and Molecular
2010 ics tive Physics, Amsterdam
Green Reduce emissions in cement production by Magnesium com- Environment Novacem, London; Others working on green concrete: MIT;.
Concrete replacing limestone (a carbon rich mineral) with pounds Geopolymer Institute, Los Gatos, CA; Saint-Quentin, France
magnesium compounds
Implantable Implantable optical and medical devices with silk Films of silk fibroin Health and Tufts University, Medford/Somerville, MA; Others working on
Electronics as the basis for the devices makes them biode- Biotechnology implantable electronics: University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign;
gradable Stanford University, CA
$100 Sequence a human genome for just $100 using a Health and BioNanomatrix, San Diego, California
Genome nanofluidic chip Biotechnology
Racetrack Using nanowires to create an ultradense memory Magnetic nanowires ICT IBM,Palo Alto, California
2009
Memory chip
Nanopiezo- Piezoelectric nanowires could power implantable Crystalline materials Health and Georgia Tech, Atlanta
electronicsmedical devices and serve as tiny sensors Biotechnology
Graphene Transistors based on graphene, a carbon materi- Graphene ICT Georgia Tech, Atlanta
Transistorsal one atom thick, could have extraordinary
electronic properties
NanoRadio A nanoscale radio in which the key circuitry Graphene ICT University of California, Berkeley
consists of a single carbon nanotube
2008
Atomic Sensors called atomic magnetometers, the size High-temperature Health and U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology,
Magnetom- of grain of rice, might someday be incorporated superconducting mate- Biotechnology, Gaithersburg, Maryland
eters into everything from portable MRI machines to rials Security
faster and cheaper detectors for unexploded
bombs
Nanocharg- Quantum-dots can hopefully enable the produc- Semiconductors Energy, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, Colorado
ing Solar tion of more efficient and less expensive solar Environment
cells, finally making solar power competitive with
other sources of electricity
Invisible Structures of metamaterials that can manipulate Artificially structured ICT, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
2007
Revolution electro-magnetic radiation, including light, in ways metamaterials Energy
not readily observed in nature
Nanoheal- Tiny fibres will save lives by stopping bleeding Novel material made of Health and MIT, Cambridge, Massachusetts
ing and aiding recovery from brain injury nanoscale protein Biotechnology
fragments (peptine)
Stretchable Reinventing the way we use electronics by using Inorganic semiconduc- Health and University of Illinois; Others working on stretchable silicon: Uni-
2006 Silicon stretchable silicon tors, single-crystal Biotechnology versity of Cambridge, England; University of Tokyo; Princeton
silicon University, New Jersey
Silicon Making the material of computer chips emit light Silicon photonics ICT University of California; Others working on silicon photonics:
Photonics could speed data flow Intel's Photonics Technology Lab; University of Rochester,
2005 NewYork
Quantum Wires spun from carbon nanotubes could carry Carbon nanotubes Energy Rice University, Houston, Texas
Wires electricity farther and more efficiently
2004 Nanowires Use of nanowires in electronics ICT University of California, Berkeley; Harvard University, Cambridge,
53
54

MA
Injectable Inject joints with specially designed mixtures of Polymers Health and Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore; Others working on injectable
Tissue polymers, cells, and growth stimulators that Biotechnology tissue engineering: Harvard Medical School, cartilage; Genzyme,
Engineering solidify and form healthy tissue cartilage; Rice U., bone and cardiovascular tissue; U. Michigan,
bone and cartilage
2003
Nano Solar Use nanotechnology to produce a photovoltaic Nanorod polymer Energy, University of California, Berkeley; Others working on nano solar
Cells material that can be spread like plastic wrap or composite Environment cells: U. Cambridge; Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, nano-
paint, it offers the promise of cheap production crystalline dye-sensitized solar cells; U. California Santa Barbara;
costs that can make solar power competitive Johannes Kepler University, Linz, Austria
Flexible Flexible and cost-effective electronics for ubiqui- Polymer semiconduc- ICT IBM; Others working on flexible transistors: Lucent Technologies'
Transistors tous computing tors Bell Labs; University of Cambridge, England; Pennsylvania State
2001 University; MIT
Micropho- Photonic crystals are on the cutting edge of Photonic crystal ICT MIT; Others working on microphotonics: University of California,
tonics microphotonics: technologies for directing light on Los Angeles; Kyoto University, Japan; Caltech, Pasadena, CA;
a microscopic scale that will make a major impact Nanovation Technologies, Miami, FL; Clarendon Photonics,
on telecommunications Boston, MA
Source: The overview is based on ‘Technology Review’ (MIT), a yearly assessment of the emerging technologies that have a potential to produce the greatest impact. www.technologyreview.com Note: Year 2002 is missing from the
list— no material-related applications listed. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts.
Chapter 6. Quantitative Value Added Materi-
als market overview

Desk research results regarding identified ageing societies), product life cycle (most
markets for VAMs and their possible appli- of VAMs have started their life cycle per
cations are presented in the table in Annex definition), precise information about ma-
1. Charts below present an overview of terials share in final product value (inter-
results, and are designed to demonstrate viewed experts had different views here),
the most promising areas and industries. and finally an unambiguous decision
Current foresights available on the market whether the material is to be regarded as
do not bring much information with regard VAM or not (if so, to be included in the
to the long future. Far-reaching market calculation and projection). Such a model
foresights only extend to 2020. shall be then multiplied for all possible new
materials identified on the market. One
A case study showing the uncertainty sur- can see the complexity for measuring mar-
rounding market foresights — how shifts in ket size with such bottom up approach.
materials apply to production — is set out
below, presenting the development of the The model described above is of course
smart phones market in recent years. Prior theoretically possible, but — as shown
to this massive boom no market forecast with the smartphones case — largely inac-
managed to predict such a forceful devel- curate and misleading even with very
opment. This shows the inherent difficulty much developed and known markets, and
in such forecasting: it is impossible to take even with three years’ perspective. There-
into account the specific and unknown fore the general approach for this analysis
factors that will develop in the future. is to identify existing market estimates and
Therefore forecasts can only be a tool in look for patterns within the data. The col-
the work towards defining future markets. lected secondary data are presented in
Annex 1, while below we present results of
This project was not designed in such a clustering of identified market estimates
way to produce longer term foresights in for each of the sectors.
full detail. Nevertheless it is believed that
summary of foresights presented below It is clear that existing market estimates
may be used as a valid policy-making tool have in almost all cases two dimensions:
in the future, with a longer time perspec- one measurement of the market in the
tive towards 2030 and even 2050. recent past and one in the near future. This
finding suggested ways to cluster the find-
The projection of precise VAMs market ings in order to present a consistent over-
share in the sector on the basis of statisti- view of future market growths and sizes.
cal methods based on primary data from
producers or secondary data will not be
very credible. The model would have too
many uncertainties. The factors to be tak- When analysing these data one must take
en into consideration with such analysis into consideration the general rule of fore-
are: general market trends (e.g. growing sight science, which says that one shall not
energy consumption, demand growth, make projections for a future that is longer

55
in time perspective than the existing his- maximum time frame for prognosis cur-
torical data. The secondary market infor- rently available. All other statistical ‘tricks’
mation gathered for VAMs gives market are of course possible, but would not be
sizes only several years back and projects reliable.
up to around 2016 to 2020. This is the

Smartphones; A case of sudden market change and diverse foresights

Smartphones are defined as high-end mobile phones that combine the functions of a
personal digital assistant and a mobile phone. Today they also typically serve as porta-
ble media players and camera phones with touchscreens, web browsers, GPS naviga-
tion, Wi-Fi and mobile broadband access.

Market size

The smartphones’ share of the mobile phone market has shown an impressing growth
1
over the last few years. As Gartner has showed, smartphone sales in the US doubled
from the third quarter in 2009 to the third quarter in 2010. The global smartphone
shipments grew by 74 per cent in the same time period. The total global mobile device
sale to end users in 2010 totaled 1,6 billion units, an increase of close to 32 per cent
from 2009. This means that the smartphone market is growing at double the rate
compared to the overall mobile phone market. This is evident in Gartner’s report on
market shares for smartphones; smartphones accounted for 19 per cent of the total
mobile communications device sales in 2010, up from 11 per cent in the fourth quarter
of 2007, and 12 per cent in 2008.

Materials for smartphones

Smartphones are interesting in the context of this VAMs discussion because of the
highly specialized materials used for production, especially such components as
screen, battery and processor. An interesting fact is that producers are going away
from plastic applications. An example here is the iPhone. In the previous generations
of iPhones, plastic, glass and aluminum were major elements, however, in the latest
editions, plastic is no longer a leading case component.

The growth in the smartphone market means an increase in demand for electronic
chemicals and polymers as well as other advanced materials. A key problem is that
several of the materials needed in the smartphones are either extremely rare, like
indium, a key component in the production of touchscreens, or are almost exclusively
mined in China. This means that there are uncertainties related to the supply of such
materials, as well as their price in the future. These uncertainties increase the need to
find new materials that can replace rare earth materials.

56
Indium is one example where speculations have been made that its reserves will be
exhausted by 2020. This means that within the next decade there is an acute need to
find a replacement for this material. According to Gartner’s analyst Dean Freeman, the
most likely replacement for ITO will be carbon nanotubes, or CNTs. Carbon nanotubes
(also known as buckytubes) are allotropes of carbon. These cylindrical carbon mole-
cules have novel properties which make them potentially useful in many applications in
electronics, optics, and other fields of materials science, as well as potential uses in
architectural fields. But that technology isn't quite ready yet.

Projections

The second factor that increases the demand for materials needed in smartphones is
the expected growth in the market. As shown above, the market has already demon-
strated high growth levels, and that growth is expected to continue in the future. As
there are high levels of uncertainty linked to growth projections, there exist many
different estimates on future market size. Gartner has predicted that in 2011 US con-
sumers are more likely to purchase a smartphone than any other consumer device.
Berg Insight anticipates that shipments of smartphones will hit 1.2 billion units in 2015,
at which time they have estimated that there will be approximately 2.8 billion
smartphone users worldwide. In-stat, on the other hand, has a less optimistic estimate
for the smartphone market growth, arguing that 850 million smartphones will be
shipped by 2015.

Sources for the case study 47

47 Sources:
http://www.mobilephonedevelopment.com/archives/1149
http://www.bgr.com/2011/03/10/berg-smartphone-shipments-grew-74-in-2010/
http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1543014
http://www.icis.com/Articles/2011/03/07/9439919/smartphones-and-tablets-fuel-huge-growth-for-electronic.html
http://www.icis.com/Articles/2011/03/07/9439919/smartphones-and-tablets-fuel-huge-growth-for-electronic.html
http://www.azonano.com/news.aspx?newsID=20360
http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1550814
http://www.bgr.com/2011/03/10/berg-smartphone-shipments-grew-74-in-2010/
http://gadgets.tmcnet.com/topics/gadgets/articles/137893-in-stat-expects-850-million-smartphones-shipped-2015.htm

57
6.1 VAMs market size and devel-
opment
Not many studies so far tried responding
to the general question of market size for
advanced materials.

Table 4: Total market sizes for advanced and new materials


1980 1990 2000 2008 2010 2015 2020 2030
Market for new materials according to 2 17,5 51,7 102,7 177 316,7
Moskowitz study (billion USD)
Market for advanced materials according 100 150
to Expert Group on KETs (billion euro)
Source: combined sources.

Since the Value Added Materials are par- large investment density in the last
ticularly new in terms of concept, second- decades.
ary data of current market sizes are taken
 Non-linear growth trend of VAM mar-
from two sources: the study by Sanford
48 kets in energy and environment sec-
Moskowitz and the Final Report from
tors, as well as the emergence of new
High level Expert Group on Key Enabling
49 materials used in multiple applications
Technologies . These two studies present
(cross sectoral).
comparable estimates of total market
sizes. This information, together with This approach enabled us to calculate the
trends identified from the interviews, share of VAMs in all products and markets
draws a picture of potential market devel- where they are currently used. We com-
opment for VAMS in the future. The data pared the data presented in table 3
series used for the construction of the (above) with identified market shares in all
model feed are from trends drafted in the sectors (presented in Annex 1). It also
above mentioned studies. The size of mar- enabled calculations of proportional mar-
kets for VAMs after the 2030 was designed ket allocations of Value Added Materials
on the basis of two different conditions per sector and trend prognosis in the fu-
identified in the interviews with materials ture.
experts and investors.
The result of this analysis confirms the
 Linear growth of materials applications large potential for development of market
in the industries with already long- applications of Value Added Materials. The
lasting research in the area (automo- market has the potential to grow more
tive, ICT and health). These were indi- than 10 times over the next 40 years. This
cated in the interviews as sectors with potential was underlined by all experts
interviewed. Therefore the results of this
analysis gives a reliable picture of how the
markets for VAMs might develop in the
48 Moskowitz, Sanford L. Advanced Materials Revolution Technology future.
and Economic Growth in the Age of Globalization. Wiley & Sons, Inc.
2009.
49 High Level Group on Key Enabling Technologies. ‘Report by the

working group on advanced materials technologies’. European


Commission, June 2011.
58
Table 5: Size of identified markets where VAMs are applied50
2008 2015 2020 2030 2050
Energy 83 230 335 640 2336
Transport 112 210 280 420 700
Environment 51 286 615 850 1501 4683
Health 314 517 662 952 1532
ICT 344 624 824 1224 2024
Others / Cross-cutting52 42 217 342 731 3335
Total markets value 1181 2413 3293 5468 14610
VAMs share in sector applications (%) 8,6 6,2 5,7 5,8 7,5
Source: Oxford Research AS. Unit: billion euro.

Table 6: VAMs market share by sector


2008 2015 2020 2030 2050
Energy 7,1 14,3 18,9 37,0 175,7
Transport 9,6 13,1 15,8 24,3 52,6
Environment 24,6 38,2 48,0 86,8 352,2
Health 27,0 32,1 37,4 55,0 115,2
ICT 29,6 38,8 46,6 70,7 152,2
Others / Cross-cutting 3,6 13,5 19,3 42,2 250,8
Total projected value of identified VAMs markets 101,7 150,0 186,1 316,0 1098,6
Source: Oxford Research AS. Unit: billion euro.

The change in VAMs’ sector presence resulting from the presented model is depicted in
Figure 8.Note that the potential for VAMs’ market growth is much higher than average
European GDP growth estimates.

50 Table 4 is showing only aggregated value of markets relevant for materials applications and not the value of entire sectors. See details in Annex
1.
51 The environment sector size is largely influenced by ‘energy efficient technologies for environment protection’ being currently around 40 % of the
total value of the sector, and therefore its size shall be very much considered together with the energy sector.
52 The category ‘Others / Cross-cutting’ is used to group all those materials that either:

 cannot be easily allocated to one of the industries analysed in this study;


 have properties that enable them to be used in multiple industries;
 cannot be allocated to any of the sectors at current stage because their market implementation is a subject for current research;
 are used in industries other than those considered in this study ( e.g. food, construction, chemical etc.).
59
Figure 8: Changes in VAMs’ sector presence
and market growth

2008 energy
total value 7%
100 billion euro
others transport
4% 9%
ICT
29 % environ- 2020
ment total value
24% 186 billion euro
health
27 %
others energy
10 % 10 % transport
9%
ICT
25 %
environ-
ment
health 26 %
20 %

2030
total value energy
316 billion euro
others 12 %
13 % transport 2050
total value
8%
ICT 1098 billion euro
22 %
environ-
ment
health 28 %
17 % energy
others 16 %
23 %
transport
5%

ICT
14 %
environ-
ment
health 32 %
10 %

60
More detailed information regarding the situation in each of the sectors covered by this
study is presented in the sections below.

6.2 Energy sector


The existing conservative market esti- terms of consumption and sources struc-
53
mates from the United States Energy ture.
Information Administration reveal that the
energy sector in terms of consumption Figure 10: Energy sector structure 2015
54
(measured in quadrillions BTU ) will de-
velop steadily through the years. USEIA’s
market estimates also note that the con-
sumption structure is not expected to
change radically, based on the scenario of
business-as-usual and no radical break-
throughs. Following this scenario ‘black
energy’ produced from oil and coal will
remain the main sources of energy for
modern humanity. On the global scale the
role of renewable energy is predicted to
have negligible influence the overall mar-
ket structure.
Source: United States Energy Information Administration.
Figure 9: Global energy sector growth and Design: Oxford Research AS. Unit: quadrillions BTU.
structure 2007-2035

Figure 11: Energy sector structure 2035

Source: United States Energy Information Administration,


Design: Oxford Research AS. Unit: quadrillions BTU.

The structure of the energy sector is pre-


dicted to remain almost unchanged in

53 Global energy sector estimates are in most cases presented in Source: United States Energy Information Administration.
quadrillions BTU (British Thermal Unit). Different energy sources Design: Oxford Research AS. Unit:- quadrillions BTU.
have different prices, sometimes radically changing over time, and
different unit effectiveness. It is common practice to provide market
estimates in comparable energy units.
54 Different types of energy are measured by different physical units
A contradictory picture appears when
(barrels or gallons for petroleum, cubic feet for natural gas, tons for
coal, kilowatthours for electricity). To compare different fuels, one
simultaneously considering the USEIA data,
needs to convert the measurements to the same units. BTU a the European initiatives meant to address
measure of heat energy, is the most commonly used unit for compar-
ing fuels and therefore covers most of the market. future energy challenges, and the infor-
61
mation gathered within this study. Rein- Figure 12: Energy sector size 2015
venting our energy system on a low-carbon
model is one of the critical challenges of
st
the 21 Century. Today in the EU, our pri-
mary energy supply is 80 per cent depend-
ent on fossil fuels. But the European Com-
mission Strategic Energy Plan, the market
estimates expressed by our interviewed
experts and investors, and the data from
analysed secondary sources all indicate
that a share of renewable energy sources
in the years to come will rapidly influence Source: MarketResearch.com data for 2009 and 2014.
Design and trend: Oxford Research AS. Unit: trillion euro.
the global market structure, especially in
developed countries. The perspective that 56
The average CAGR for all identified ener-
renewables will have more influence than
gy sector applications of VAMs from 2009
credited by the USEIA is in a way confirmed
to 2015 is 19 per cent. Highest growths are
with available data from Market-
foresighted within the following catego-
Research.com — a company specializing in
ries:
long term industry foresights, where the
market size is provided not in terms of  stationary fuel cells: CAGR 55% be-
consumption, but total value. In 2009 the tween 2010-2016;
global energy market was estimated to be
on the level of 4,235 trillion euros. In
55
 supercapacitors for energy industry:
2014 the market size is to reach almost CAGR 49 % between 2010-2015;
twice that number with 7,875 trillion eu-
 biogas plant equipment: CAGR 30 %
ros. Detailed market estimates for renew-
between 2010-2014;
able energies presented in Annex 1 also
indicate much faster growth rates of re-  nanoscale materials used in energy,
newables. catalytic and structural applications
with growth rate of 29 % currently;
 inks and catalysts with growth rate of
With linear data imputation the overall 28% towards 2015.
energy market growth is shown in Figure The figures above confirm the thesis for-
12 (below). Continuation of current trends mulated by experts during conducted in-
will lead to a market of over 20 trillion terviews. The biggest market size and mar-
euros in 2030. Is this possible? None of the ket growth in nominal terms is foreseen in
interviewed experts was willing to confirm the area of energy storage and energy
or deny; the perspective is simply too long production, with a considerable share in
and the uncertainties too many. photovoltaics and materials for large ener-
gy systems and storage.

56 CAGR is the year-over-year growth rate of an investment over a


specified period of time. CAGR is not an accounting term, but is
widely used in growth industries or to compare the growth rates of
556,05 trillion USD, exchange rate used 1 USD=0,7 EUR; being 120 two investments. CAGR dampens the effect of volatility of periodic
days average, from http://www.x-rates.com/ for Sept 26, 2011. returns that can render arithmetic means irrelevant.
62
Since the energy sector is currently largely ited (compared to entire sector size). The
defined by consumption of oil, coal and gas summarized market estimates for VAMs
(not VAMs), the expected share of poten- applications are only a minor part of the
tial VAM markets in this sector is very lim- entire market dominated by commodities.

Table 7: Share of VAM-related technologies in energy markets


total energy market clustered size and CAGR clustered size and CAGR total energy market
size 2009 of identified VAM-related of identified VAM-related size 2014
markets 2007-2010 markets 2012-2016

4,235 0,125 0,203 7,875

100% 2,95% 2,58% 100%

Source: Oxford Research AS on basis of secondary data. Unit: trillion euro.

Increased presence of VAM-based tech- Figure 13: Global renewables growth and
nologies in this market will definitely re- structure
quire a long time perspective combined
with large scientific and technological
breakthroughs and complex policy efforts.
Alternative energy sources will eventually
influence the market to a greater extent.
The current state of technology deploy-
ment indicates a large market potential,
considering such prospective technologies
as electric vehicles, with its promise of
changing the structure of fuels consump-
tion in developed countries. As already
discussed, the forecasts of United States
Energy Information Administration are
very conservative in this regard.

When considering the current structure of Source: United States Energy Information Administration.
Design: Oxford Research AS. Unit: (kWh).
alternative renewable energy sources, it’s
obvious that breakthrough technologies
still have not managed to reach their full
potential in the market. Currently most of
the renewable energy is created by hydro-
power generation, a category which is
much bigger than all the other renewables
together. Nevertheless experts inter-
viewed predict much faster growth of solar
and other technologies, with great poten-
tial to change the markets of the future.

63
6.3 Transport sector transport and other industries) are dis-
cussed later on within the ICT sector.
The global transport sector is estimated to
reach 3,12 trillion euros in 2012. This par- The secondary data regarding market sizes
ticular sector is mostly composed of ser- reveals that the Value Added Materials
vices. Transport of goods and persons are have still have a high potential within the
leading pillars for all economies and also market, especially in the context of energy
importantly influence global environmen- efficiency and green transport. The share
tal challenges. of identified VAM markets in the global
scene will change from 3,5 per cent to 6,2
Figure 14: Share of VAM-related technolo- per cent compared to sector market size in
gies in transport markets 2012.

Source: Oxford Research AS on basis of secondary data. Unit: trillion euro.

The use of advanced materials in this part The average CAGR calculated from identi-
of industry is mostly oriented to produc- fied materials applications within transport
tion of transport means (cars, airplanes, sector is on the level of 15 per cent. For
ships, space ships and so on) as well as the detailed market growths again the
roads and railways. Another large applica- biggest expected CAGR is allocated to su-
tion area for Value Added Materials is percapacitors for the transportation sec-
transport efficiency (electronic systems) as tor, with CAGR equals 35 per cent and later
well as transport security. Finally there is on to the market for electric vehicles with
always a place for materials that will sub- CAGR equals 20 per cent.
stitute or create an alternative to oil, coal
and gas— the market for these materials is The comparison of market sizes and
depicted in the section (above) about the growth is presented through the figures in
energy sector. Annex 1.

The two most likely areas in transportation The biggest share of all identified markets
for Value Added Materials are electric for transport applications of VAMs is still
vehicles (EV) and ultra-light and highly the area of lightweight materials. This is
durable materials. Please note that elec- the place where materials may still be
tronic applications of materials (used in introduced to the market. This field is also
very much concerned by the time-to-

64
market issue. Interviews with experts indi- The problems associated with energy stor-
cated that the transportation sector is now age will hamper development of electric
starting to use materials invented some 15 vehicle (EV) market for the coming years.
to 20 years ago. Obviously there is space Still the analysed roadmap indicates that
for improvement regarding time-to-market by 2020 it is possible that Europe will start
indicators. This is also an area where inno- mass production of 5 million EV/PHEV
vative new materials might be of particular (plug-in hybrid electric) vehicles.
interest to the industry.
Trends related to energy storage (including
57
The European Green Car Initiative indi- batteries for EV) are therefore reflected in
cates several challenges in the area of our foresight for market growth within the
green transport development. One of the energy sector (above).
most important is energy storage systems,
which still require intensive research. En-
ergy storage is suggested as a crosscutting
research direction for all current Frame-
work Programme Priorities. This trend is
confirmed by our interviews with materials
experts and investment specialists.

European Green Cars Initiative PPP


57

Multi-annual roadmap and long-term strategy; November 2010,


www.green-cars-initiative.eu
65
6.4 Environment sector growth from 461,3 billion euro to 490
58
billion in 2010.
The environmental industry includes all
revenue-generating activities associated A more detailed look at existing market
with: estimates from other sources indicates
that these numbers are somehow too
 air pollution control; narrow and pessimistic. Analysed esti-
mates regarding sub-sectors where a num-
 water and waste water treatment; ber of applications are to appear for VAMs
 waste management (including recov- are much more optimistic — the average
ery and recycling); sector growth calculated on the basis of
gathered data is at the level of 17 per cent
 contaminated land remediation; CAGR. The market for water and water
 environmental monitoring and in- treatment was estimated to have reached
59
strumentation; 300 billion euro in 2010.

 noise and vibration control; An overview of all other markets for VAMs
identified within this sector indicates that
 marine pollution control; only selected markets in total will be high-
 clean industrial processes. er than the initial current estimate for the
entire sector already around year 2016
Within these fields there is a place for (see Annex 1 for details).
Value Added Materials to play a crucial
role in addressing the eco-challenges of
our times.

Figure 15: Share of VAM-related technolo-


gies in environmental markets

Source: Oxford Research AS on basis of secondary data. Unit: billion euros.

The global environmental market size fol-


lowing some less optimistic scenarios is not
growing as fast as would be expected —
the past estimates indicate only 2 per cent
58 Office of Energy and Environmental, International Trade Admin-
istration, U.S. Department of Commerce.
59 According to the ‘European Technology Platform for Water, 2010

Strategic Research Agenda’.


66
The most promising technology on the The biggest share in the group of identified
market within this sector is definitely car- technologies is the energy efficient tech-
bon capture technologies, where the ex- nologies, expected to reach 218 billion
pected CAGR will be on the level of 63 per euro with CAGR of 9 per cent (much below
cent between 2010 and 2012. The total average for the sector). Second biggest
market size for this kind of technology is to part of the market will be allocated to the
rise from 62 to over 165 billion in just two intensively growing industry related to
years. Another very prospective market for carbon capture technologies, mentioned
Value Added Materials is ‘nanotechnolo- above.
gies for environmental applications’, where
the CAGR will reach 61 per cent. This rela-
tively small market will grow from 1,4
billion in 2009 to 15,26 billion in 2014.

67
6.5 Health sector The non-drug VAMs’ share in the market
will grow within the years to come with
The global health sector is to reach almost average CAGR of 11 per cent.
4 trillion euro this year. The foresights
60
made by Plunkett Research Ltd ., indicat- The data available from the document
ed the market was at the level of 3.85 ‘Roadmaps in nanomedicine: Towards
62
trillion in 2010. The sector growth between 2020’ indicate even much more intensive
2006 and 2010 was at the level of 5 per growth of the sector, with average growth
cent CAGR. of 30 per cent CAGR between 2015 and
2025 (see details in Annex 1).
Of course the biggest share in this sector is
dedicated to services. In the context of this In order to make this study comparative
study, the most important market for ad- between sectors, this analysis of non-drug
vanced Value Added Materials is located VAMs takes into consideration market
63
within drug manufacturing. This part of the estimates published by BCC Research .
market reached 360 billion Euros in 2010
61
globally. The identified application areas where
VAMs will play important role constitutes a
Figure 16: Share of VAM-related technolo- growing part of the health sector in the
gies in health markets future.

Source: Oxford Research AS on basis of secondary data. Unit: trillion euro.

The drug market is a separate subject, due


to specifications of the European Commis- The fastest growing market is definitely
64
sion research programmes; so it will not be connected with RNAi drug delivery tech-
considered in further analysis. nologies, projected to grow from 4,9 billion
euro in 2010 to the level of 16,87 billion
Other existing markets for Value Added euro in 2015. The CAGR in this period will
Materials are nevertheless very much in- be on the level of 28 per cent. The biggest
fluential. share of the market within selected tech-
nologies will be allocated to biotechnolo-
gies used in medical applications. Biotech

62 ‘Roadmaps in nanomedicine: Towards 2020’, Joint European


60 Plunkett's Health Care Industry Almanac, 2011 edition Commission & ETP Nanomedicine Expert Report, 2009.
61 Plunkett Research®, Ltd.201, 63 http://www.bccresearch.com

http://plunkettresearch.com/health%20care%20medical%20market% 64 RNA interference (RNAi) is a highly evolutionarily conserved

20research/industry%20and%20business%20data mechanism of gene regulation. See http://www.rnaiweb.com


68
will have a 15 per cent growth rate, start- The share of identified VAM-related mar-
ing from 77 billion in 2010 to 156 billion kets in the entire sector is expected to
euro in 2015. All market sizes are present- grow substantially in the years to come.
ed in detail in Annex 1. This comparative data are based on two
sources (Digital Planet for total market
6.6 Information and Communica- estimates and BCC Research for selected
tion Technologies (ICT) sector markets summary). Therefore foresights
with data from BCC Research have in this
The ICT sector is expected to grow an av- case higher growth ratio than Digital Plan-
erage CAGR of 5 per cent between 2007 et’s estimates for the entire market, result-
and 2013. ing in numbers that first seem to show a
growth of market share for materials mar-
Details regarding sector split are presented kets from 14,9per cent to 40,8 per cent.
with Figure 17, below.

Figure 17: ICT sector split and growth

Source: Digital Planet 2010. Design: Oxford Research AS. Unit: trillion euro.

The ICT sector suffered a downturn in 2009 This situation will not happen in reality, as
directly connected with the global financial the market in general is mostly composed
crisis. Since that time sector growth has of services and software. But such indica-
stabilized with the highest expected tors may legitimately lead to the conclu-
growth in communications (CAGR 6 per sion that materials market share will grow
cent) and hardware and services (with extremely well in the years to come.
expected 5 per cent CAGR). The potential
markets for materials are mostly in hard- Information regarding the share of detailed
ware, and to a much smaller extent in materials markets in the ICT sector is pre-
communications infrastructure. sented in Annex 1.

69
Table 8: Share of VAM-related technologies in ICT markets
clustered size and clustered size and
CAGR of identified CAGR of identified
average ICT market VAM-related markets VAM-related markets average ICT market
size 2007-2010 2007-2010 2012-2016 size 2011-2013

2569 384,5 1247,3 3056,6

100% 14,9% 40,8%65 100%


Source: Oxford Research AS on basis of secondary data. Unit : billion euro.

6.7 Other market estimates


Since many of new and advanced materials are cross-cutting above listed sectors, Figure 7
in Annex 1 presents information regarding their markets without sector allocation.

Without superconducting electrical equipment market, the total share of VAM markets will be around 325 bln euro and 20,44% of the entire ICT
65

market.
70
Chapter 7. Potential future technological
challenges

Relevant industry roadmaps, foresights  Optical sensors are well suited for
and strategic papers reveal a number of systems whose purpose is not to re-
current technological challenges and issues store an image to a final user but to
in the development of future materials. analyse the content of a visual scene
and make a decision. The main re-
This chapter presents an overview of the quirements for such a sensor are a
identified challenges to bringing VAMs into wide intra-scene dynamic range and a
common use. This discussion again follows data representation capability that fa-
the delineation of Grand Challenges used cilitates processing. Currently used
by the European Commission for planning standard image sensors have a too
future research programmes. narrow dynamic range to cope with
the tremendous change of illumina-
Several materials experts within this pro- tion occurring in natural visual scenes.
ject voiced an important and widespread The current state of the art is to per-
opinion: In order to tackle the biggest soci-
form the logarithmic compression in
etal problems, we ‘just’ have to enable the the analogue domain, which leads to a
use of technologies already available to- high pixel-to-pixel fixed pattern noise
day. The thinking is that simply by adjust- that makes them unusable for com-
ing current and future research pro-
mercial applications. Future genera-
grammes’ priorities we can easily meet the tions of visual front-ends, developed
Grand Challenges within the time frame of for robotic, medical or security appli-
2020. However, this is not a reasonable cations, will have to resolve this issue.
expectation due to the time-to-market
factor. Smart health-related systems

Every breakthrough invented within the  Progress towards steadily shrinking


next five years will be visible on the market structures will lead to situations where
only after 2025 (at earliest), and probably properties of devices can be defined
after 2030 if it follows the usual time-to- by the presence or absence of a hand-
market pattern. In this context only large ful of doping atoms. Neither quality
scale implementation of already existing assurance, principally in mass produc-
technologies may reasonably influence the tion, nor manufacturing based on sim-
nearest future and catalyse expected glob- ulation seems to be possible in these
al changes. circumstances. Other approaches to
system design and manufacturing will
have to be investigated.
 There is a need for low cost and high
7.1 Challenges within health,
performance materials in this sector.
demographic change and wellbeing
 The autonomy of smart systems de-
Optical sensors in health pends upon their ability to scavenge
energy from their environment, to
71
store it and to make efficient use of it. parts during operation (redundancy).
The limited life-time of batteries for Zero-defect requires a complete
implantable devices, e.g. pacemakers knowledge of ageing mechanisms
or implanted drug delivery systems, within the circuits, enabling the mod-
often necessitates surgical replace- elling and simulation of the reliability
ments after a comparatively short gradient during operational life. Re-
time (in relation to the scheduled sys- dundancy requires methods of esti-
tem life time). Direct glucose fuel cells mating the number of expected fail-
could be used as a sustainable power ures, identifying defective parts and
supply for long term implants, con- paths, and substituting them with new
verting the chemical energy of the ones. For both approaches, however,
body’s glucose into electrical energy today’s tedious and expensive experi-
— the energy supply of smart implants mental reliability tests on processed
is a challenge as well as an opportunity silicon must, as far as possible, be sub-
for smart systems integration. Prob- stituted by intensive simulation meth-
lems of implantable fuel cells are man- ods.
ifold. How to achieve fuel separation,
 Electronic systems for health related
because the body fluids contain fuel
mobile applications have to withstand
cell reactants, glucose and oxygen,
very harsh environments, including
simultaneously? How to guarantee a
high temperatures, humidity, vibra-
maximum of operation time? How to
tion, fluid contamination and electro-
achieve exceptional system reliability?
magnetic compatibility. While these
 Vision systems: new sensor technolo- problems have largely been solved for
gies still need to be developed. For ex- conventional integrated circuit (IC)
ample, terahertz imaging is quite new style packaged devices, a whole new
and the terahertz detectors that al- set of challenges will have to be faced
ready exist require ultra-cooling and when these packages also contain in-
are still monolithic. For multimedia tegrated sensors, actuators, mecha-
and domestic applications, cost and tronics or opto-electronic functions.
compactness are the key drivers.
 Medical Ultrasound: The ability to
drive 100 - 200 volts at a frequency of
several megahertz will improve the
speed and performance of ultrasound Biosensors
scanners. The ability to process high-
 There is a need to ensure the bio-
voltage signals using high-
compatibility of the materials both for
performance analogue integrated cir-
in-vitro and in-vivo applications.
cuits with high linearity and high fre-
quency stability is a key requirement  Ultra-low power consumption is re-
for improving ultrasound image quali- quired of wireless connected portable
ty. or implantable systems. These must
stay within the maximum thermal
 Reliability: In principle two strategies
loads that implanted devices can im-
can be approached to reach the need-
pose on the human body.
ed reliability, being the avoidance of
defects (zero-defect), and the identifi-  Developing implants in bio-compatible
cation and substitution of defective packages will push miniaturisation to

72
the limits, while at the same time re- spectral analysis using a single sensor
quiring the integration of many differ- technology.
ent types of device — for example,
 The success of MtM (More than
bio-sensors, nanoscale MEMS (microe- 66
Moore ) will depend on a profound
lectromechanical systems) devices,
understanding of the properties and
optical components, energy scaveng-
behaviour of materials and their inter-
ing systems and RF (radiofrequency)
faces under manufacturing, qualifica-
interfaces. Many of these highly com-
tion testing and use conditions, and on
plex heterogeneous systems will also
the ability to tailor the material design
need to achieve life-support system
for the requirements of specific appli-
reliability.
cations. This issue is already acute for
Micro- and nanoelectronic systems for MtM technologies, where multi-scale
everyday use size effects and multi-material com-
patibility, stability and reliability will
 This is a challenging research field that be the key to success. Among the
may boost or hinder technological de- many challenges, characterisation and
velopments. Issues include the devel- modelling of materials and their inter-
opment of structural in-line metrology face behaviour need more attention,
(accurate 3D measurement of differ- especially for multi-scale, multiphysics
ent patterns, overlays etc.), fast and and time dependent situations.
sensitive defect detection and classifi-
cation, structural off-line characteriza-  Heterogeneous integration: Intercon-
tion (including morphological, physical nection, packaging and assembly are
and chemical analysis of 3D nm sized major bottlenecks for future nanoelec-
structures made of complex material tronics technology.
stacks), and methods of assessing the  Equipment and materials: Historically,
sources of process variability. (poly)-silicon, silicon dioxide, silicon ni-
 Challenges arise from the societal tride and aluminium have been the
need to include sensors and actuators materials of choice for semiconductor
to nano- or microelectronic systems. devices. In the last decade, however, it
has proven impossible to further ex-
 Electronic imaging: Currently, pixel tend dimensional scaling with this set
sizes for these applications can be as of materials alone. A multitude of new
small as 1.4 x 1.4 micron. Lowering the high-performance materials with spe-
pixel size is mainly driven by cost at cially engineered electrical, mechani-
the device and system levels. Howev- cal and chemical properties must be
er, it is becoming a real challenge to introduced to extend Moore's Law and
detect photons while decreasing pixel allow fabrication of scaled devices that
size. For non-visible imaging, different operate at higher speed and/or lower
technologies are needed for different power. A huge material science effort
wavelength ranges. In addition to per- is required to deliver the necessary
formance improvements that are properties, involving the selection,
common to all imagers, such as better
sensitivity, dynamic range, endurance,
lower noise and pixel-to-pixel cross-
talk, there is a definite need for multi-
66Moore’s Law: The number of transistors on a chip doubles every
18 to 24 months
73
demonstration and integration of ap-  Need to determine the most appropri-
propriate chemistries. ate dose (a nanomaterial's mass may
not be the most accurate way to eval-
Sensors and actuators
uate health effects).
 The integration aspects (monolith-  Need to understand human health
ic/hybrid) of sensors and actuators on- impacts of engineered nanomaterials:
to CMOS platforms will be an im- knowledge of molecular and cellular
portant challenge and focus for the pathways, kinetics of absorption, dis-
years to come. This will include the tribution, metabolism and excretion
development of sensors and actuators critical to understand potential health
based on materials other than silicon hazards.
(for example, III/V or plastic materials)
that offer new functionality or lower Integration
cost, as well as arrays of sensors and
 Module integration: Future board and
actuators of the same or different
substrate technologies have to ensure
functionality. In addition, new sensor
cost-efficient integration of highly
types such as nanowires and carbon
complex systems, with a high degree
nanotubes with potential for improved
of miniaturisation and sufficient flexi-
sensitivity need to be investigated.
bility to adapt to different applica-
Fabrication processes have to be de-
tions. Technologies for embedded de-
veloped to integrate such new sensing
vices such as MEMS (Micro-Electro-
elements into devices, systems and
Mechanical Systems), passive or active
applications.
components, antennas and power
 The major challenge in the area of management will be the key for highly
sensors and actuators is the support of integrated modules. To reach this goal,
huge amounts of input and output da- new substrate materials, embedding
ta envisaged in the application con- technologies and encapsulation tech-
texts with minimal power require- nologies have to be developed, such
67 68
ments and fail-safe operation. as high-K and low-K dielectrics, and
tailored polymers (such as glass transi-
 The technical challenges for smart
tion temperature -Tg, coefficient of
systems and environments may be
thermal expansion - CTE and coeffi-
summarised as how to create a con-
cient of moisture expansion CME) that
sistent architecture for smart envi-
correct the mismatch between dies
ronments. This is characterised by
and substrates.
three equally important trends: multi-
vendor interoperability, dynamic de-  3D integration enables different opti-
vice configurations and extreme scala- mised technologies to be combined
bility.
Smart nano- and bio-materials for health

 Need to assess surface and bulk physi- 67 High-κ dielectric refers to a material with a high dielectric constant
co-chemical properties of engineered κ (as compared to silicon dioxide) used in semiconductor manufactur-
ing processes which replaces the silicon dioxide gate dielectric. The
nanomaterials. implementation of high-κ gate dielectrics is one of several strategies
developed to allow further miniaturization of microelectronic compo-
 Need to include sensitive or suscepti- nents, colloquially referred to as extending Moore's Law.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-k_dielectric
ble populations in assessing risk. 68 Low-κ dielectric is a material with a small dielectric constant

relative to silicon dioxide. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Low-k_dielectric


74
together and has the potential for low- Biofuels
cost fabrication through high yield,
smaller footprints and multi-  Largely driven by government support
functionality. In addition, 3D integra- and high energy cost, biofuels need
tion is an emerging solution to the better efficiency in terms of biomass
'wiring crisis' caused by signal propa- yield, nutrient and water use and en-
gation delay at board and chip levels, ergy conversion.
because it minimises interconnection  Sustainable and reliable supplies of
lengths and eliminates speed-limiting feedstocks will be a critical success
intra-chip and inter-chip intercon- factor for the long-term prospect of
nects. biomass-based technologies on a large
Construction industry scale. Factors include improving
productivity in these sectors, develop-
 The existing building stock has a long ing reliable supply chains that open up
life-time, while solutions to retrofit ex- the feedstock potentials, certification
isting buildings are lacking. For existing issues, and prevention of excessive
buildings, technical possibilities to cre- disturbances in agricultural and forest
ate a more energy-efficient structure commodity markets. These challenges,
are poor and most of them remain to which are not specific to bioenergy
be invented. Low-intrusive retrofit and biofuels’ use of biomass, should
techniques are lacking; affordability is be addressed in a coherent effort
still a major problem, and social de- shared with the relevant stakeholders
mand and acceptance lag behind. and initiatives.
 Corrosion leads to an increased use of  Because of the variety of potential
materials and energy, and to larger biofuels feedstocks at global and EU
amounts of waste. Corrosion-resistant levels, different conversion technolo-
materials have a role to play here at gies are needed based on mechanical,
the industrial scale. thermochemical, biological and chem-
ical processes.
 For algae biofuels, cost reduction and
7.2 Challenges in the context of scale-up are the critical challenges.
food security and the bio-based  Natural photosynthesis is inefficient.
economy Artificial photosynthetic systems, in-
Food spired by the natural system’s nano-
components, are attractive alterna-
 Require facilities, emerging technolo- tives Production of useful chemical
gies, industrial engineering concepts fuels directly from sunlight with signif-
and new added value products and icantly higher efficiencies than the
services to improve utilization of food natural system is possible because
raw materials and waste into new ma- such artificial systems need not devote
terials (food and non-food). captured energy to the maintenance
of life processes. Artificial photosyn-
 Agriculture‘s automation for highly thetic systems need increased scien-
productive and efficient production tific effort to understand structure-
processes will determine development function relationships of components,
trends of agricultural machinery.
75
as well as develop basic principles for be made in building and operating fa-
component assembly and integration. cilities for the disposal of spent fuel
and high-level wastes. While solutions
are at an advanced stage of technolog-
ical development, there are often dif-
7.3 Challenges for secure, clean ficulties in gaining political and public
and efficient energy technologies acceptance for their implementation.
Renewable energy Solar energy

 The levelised cost of energy for many  Despite their cost-saving potential, the
renewable energy (RE) technologies is application of photonic integrated so-
currently higher than existing energy lutions has been restricted to a mod-
prices, though in various settings RE is est number of niche markets. The
already economically competitive. main reason for the slow market pen-
 The costs and challenges of integrating etration is the huge fragmentation in
increasing shares of renewables into integration technologies, most of
an existing energy supply system de- which have been developed and fully
pend on the current share of RE, the optimised for specific applications.
availability and characteristics of RE Due to this fragmentation most tech-
resources, the system characteristics, nologies address a market that is too
and how the system evolves and de- small to justify further development
velops in the future. Wind, solar PV into a low-cost, high-volume manufac-
energy and CSP (concentrating solar turing process. And new technology
power) without storage can be more development or optimisation is re-
difficult to integrate than dispatchable quired for each new application, which
hydropower, bioenergy, CSP with makes the entry costs high. This is very
storage and geothermal energy. The different from the situation in microe-
costs associated with RE integration, lectronics, where a much bigger mar-
whether for electricity, heating, cool- ket, larger by several orders of magni-
ing, gaseous or liquid fuels, are con- tude, is served by a smaller number of
textual, site-specific and generally dif- integration technologies (mainly
69
ficult to determine. CMOS ) which can address a wide va-
riety of applications. This leads to ex-
 As the penetration of variable RE tensive cost sharing for the large in-
sources increases, maintaining system vestments required to develop a pow-
reliability may become more challeng- erful integration technology.
ing and costly.
 PV systems lack cost efficiency. To stay
Nuclear energy competitive in the longer term, devel-
opers need to lower the cost of each
 Nuclear power has unique technical unit of electricity generated, which re-
challenges related to issues of material quires more efficient cells, better
and fuel handling, fusion, fission and
radiation damage as well as decom-
missioning and storage.
 Nuclear waste management is a keen 69 Complementary metal–oxide–semiconductor (CMOS) is a technol-
ogy for constructing integrated circuits. CMOS technology is used in
issue. In particular, progress needs to microprocessors, microcontrollers, static RAM, and other digital logic
circuits. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CMOS
76
productivity. There is also a need for are better able to manage the inter-
scalable low-cost fabrication and mittency and flexibility of wind power
manufacturing technologies. generation.
 The key technological challenge for  Turbine developers need to address
the development of solar-heated marine conditions, corrosion and reli-
buildings is to reduce the volume of ability issues in the offshore sector.
the heat storage. The key factors affecting the deploy-
ment of offshore wind are the current
 For solar thermal, storage of heat is a
shortage of turbines, and their reliabil-
major bottleneck. Further advances in
ity.
seasonal and compact storage will
have a major impact on the use of so- Geothermal energy
lar thermal energy.
 There are technical barriers to access-
 The main limitation to expansion of ing and engineering the resource (es-
CSP (concentrating solar power) plants pecially drilling technology), geother-
is not the availability of areas suitable mal heat use and advanced geother-
for power production, but the distance mal technologies. Geothermal has
between these areas and many large some health, safety and environmen-
consumption centres. Challenge: effi- tal concerns as well. Advanced materi-
cient long-distance electricity trans- als technologies for offshore, geopres-
portation. sured and super-critical (or even
 Given the arid/semi-arid nature of magma) resources could unlock a huge
environments that are well-suited for additional resource base.
CSP, a key challenge is accessing the  The key challenge for widespread
cooling water needed for CSP plants. direct use of geothermal heat will be
Wind energy the ability to reliably engineer the sub-
surface heat exchangers (using tech-
 Non-storability and energy loss pre- nique known as ‘EGS’ – Enhanced Geo-
vent the wind electricity market from thermal System) in a reproducible way
spreading globally. Large scale energy to harness the heat flux at the re-
storage is the main challenge within quired temperature.
this field.
 Fundamental research is required to
 The manufacturing and installation of bring about a significant breakthrough
the cables represent a significant cost in compact, efficient storages.
in offshore developments and have
 Since transport of heat has limitations,
proved to be high-risk areas during in-
geothermal heat can only be used
stallation and operations.
where there is demand in the vicinity
 The integration of offshore wind into of the resource.
the grid represents a major challenge.
The current grid infrastructure will not
allow the full potential of offshore Hybrid district heating and cooling
wind to be realised. Its potential can
only be realised through the construc-  To reach high penetrations of RE sys-
tion of interconnected offshore grid tems in district heating requires the
systems and regulatory regimes that development of source systems that
77
can draw on a variety of heat and cool- pulsion systems. Existing long-life
ing sources to meet customer demand ships require retrofitting with new
at any time. technologies to reduce fuel consump-
tion and CO2 emissions.
 Control and automation of systems
are major challenges that should be  Both current and near-term (that is,
worked through. As a hybrid system is lithium-ion [Li-ion]) battery technolo-
not simply an addition of two or more gies still have a number of issues that
separate systems, specific research need to be addressed in order to im-
should be carried on the best way to prove overall vehicle cost and perfor-
control the combined system. This mance. These include battery storage
needs to take into account the sto- capacity; battery duty (discharge) cy-
chastic nature of sunlight availability cles; durability; life expectancy, and
(if it is used in the hybrid system) as other issues such as energy density,
well as climate conditions, heating power density, temperature sensitivi-
and/or cooling demand forecasting. ty, reductions in recharge time, and
This research should also address en- reductions in cost.
ergy performance monitoring as well
 In road transport, replacement of
as early fault diagnosis for continued
conventional gasoline or diesel by al-
high performance over the system’s
ternative fuel will cause high wear,
lifetime.
friction and increased thermal loading
Fossil energy sources in engines due to the lack of lubricat-
ing properties of bio-fuels, reduced
 Ultra-deep offshore oil reservoirs need compatibility with engine oils and seal
new materials to alleviate platform material, as well as increased risks of
structure, new technologies to guaran- corrosion. Existing solutions cannot
tee flow assurance, new subsea robot- cope with these problems, resulting in
ics, a better understanding of well reduced engine reliability and compo-
bore stability, sealing techniques, fit- nent life time. For example, existing
for-purpose completions, high- PVD coating wear out during compo-
temperature high-pressure sensors, nent run-in phase (too thin) or do not
imaging deep reservoir structure, etc. possess resistance against fatigue (ex-
All of this makes innovation a neces- isting thick layers produced by thermal
sary step. spraying).
 Fuel cells will play an important role in
assuring the mobility of both vehicles
7.4 Challenges of smart, green and electrical devices (laptops and
and integrated transport mobile phones, most commonly). One
of the largest hurdles encountered in
 Electric vehicles need to store their the development and production of
electricity on-board in such way that it fuel cells is their relatively low effi-
can compete with hydrocarbon fuels ciencies. Naturally the catalyst plays a
in terms of the required energy densi- significant role in determining the effi-
ty. ciency of the cell, but the inability of
 Maritime transport is vulnerable to the membranes to selectively
future fuel oil shortage and rising pric- transport protons between segments
es because of today's oil-based pro-
78
of the cell also impacts on the perfor- der to reduce energy consumption
mance. (which the capture process can in-
crease).
 Air transport is currently characterised
by high fuel consumption and many Post-combustion technology CCS
CO2 and NOx emissions. Manufacture,
maintenance and disposal of aircrafts  There is insufficient experience for
and related products have a negative power plant applications on a large-
environmental impact. scale. Special requirements, due to
flue-gas conditions, have yet to be re-
 R&D efforts in tribology (friction, lubri- solved.
cation and wear between surfaces) are
inadequate. The lack of good solutions  There is a high energy de-
leads to inefficiency in energy con- mand/penalty for regeneration of the
sumption due to friction and reduced solvent and energy requirements for
efficiency, maintenance costs, re- CO2 compression.
placement of materials and compo-  Systems do not yet have full process
nents, machine and plant shutdowns integration and optimisation for pow-
and increased lubricant consumption. er generation.
 An absorption system with high-
throughput under an oxygen environ-
7.5 Challenges in the context of ment is unavailable today.
raw materials supply
Pre-combustion technology CCS
 Low substitutability of critical raw
materials (high tech metals such as  There are scale-up issues in designing
cobalt, platinum, rare earths, and tita- and developing a highly reliable indus-
nium) will require extensive materials trial-scale power plant with CO2 cap-
research in the years to come. ture.

 Solar photovoltaic (PV) active layers,  Similarly, there is a problem with the
as well as coating and barrier layers, scale-up of gasifiers.
require too many rare metals.  Highly efficient gas turbines are need-
ed for hydrogen combustion.
 Energy losses by shift-reaction and the
7.6 Challenges within resource CO2 capture process must be compen-
efficiency and climate action sated.
CO2 Capture and Storage (CCS)  The goal is full-process integration and
optimisation for power generation.
 High costs and risks still outweigh the
commercial benefits of CCS. Research- Oxy-fuel combustion technology CCS
ers need to further develop CO2 cap-
ture techniques and reduce the energy  No commercial gas- or coal-fired pow-
consumption of oxygen production er plants currently exist that operate
and CO2 treatment. The aim is to in- under oxy-fuel conditions.
crease the efficiency of both CO2 cap-
ture and individual power plants in or-

79
 The only tests being performed are in 7.8 Innovation and the European
laboratory-scale rigs and experimental paradox
boilers up to a size of a few MWth.
 Nanomaterials, like any innovative
 There are uncertainties as to what are material, can have high impact on the
acceptable impurities in the CO2-rich processing and manufacturing tech-
flue gas. nologies of downstream industries.
 CO2-rich flue gas treatment is not yet Process integration further down the
developed. value chains is a challenge which has
to be overcome to ensure the de-
ployment of nanotechnologies. Heavy
investments with longer pay-back
7.7 Technological challenges to times should be supported along the
solving the issues of secure socie- value chains, as they are required for
ties the uptake of nanotechnologies.

Satellite communication  Up-scaling is critical in the develop-


ment of any new process. In order to
 Satellite services need continuous achieve mass production of nano-
development to provide more power materials, multipurpose plants will
and bandwidth in space, in order to have to be developed. Demonstration
enable cheaper, smaller user termi- at industrial scale should therefore be
nals, as well as lower utilisation costs, supported in order to promote the
and enhanced, higher data rate ser- deployment of nanotechnologies.
vices.
 European R&D needs to address the
 Future satellite platforms will need to ‘valley of death’ question. Research
be flexible enough to support an and development is generally strong in
evolving range and mix of traffic types. new technologies, but the transition
They must target a wide range of ap- from device to product and scale-up
plications and allow reconfigurations demonstration is weak, associated
to follow service demand and user be- with low levels of venture capital fund-
haviour, both in nature and in cover- ing for KETs (Key Enabling Technolo-
age. gies).
 Currently there is a tendency for satel-
lite technologies to compete with ter-
Related issues
restrial technologies, rather than to
cooperate.  The lack of agreed standards to relia-
 ‘Security users’ experience enormous bly measure nanotechnology on-line
difficulties because a lack of coher- during volume production creates co-
ence in security research and a disper- ordination problems. There is a danger
sion of efforts lead to enormous diffi- that every value chain, or chain seg-
culties for interoperability between ment, will develop their own hetero-
actors. geneous standards based on second-
ary properties.

80
 Large initial investment costs in new  Venture capital funding usually re-
plants and processes may lead to quires a short exit horizon (about
short-term lack of competitiveness. three years).
 European technology experiences a  In Europe, industry is negatively influ-
shortage of engineering expertise. enced by a lack of political commit-
ment and vagueness about the sup-
 Product manufacturing processes
port manufacturing will receive in the
need lengthy validation to meet regu-
future. The predictability of regulatory
latory approval.
regimes influences manufacturing
 Researchers need to prove long-term companies’ decisions whether to in-
safety and efficacy. vest or not in Europe.
 SMEs (Small and Medium Enterprises)  There is a disconnection between
experience difficulties accessing the patents share and manufacturing
single market. . share.
 There is a lack of market-oriented
public-private partnerships and pro-
grammes coordinating actions aimed
at shortening the time to market.

81
References

Ashby, M. F., and D, R, H. Jones, Engineering Materi- Weng, Y., H. Dong, and Y. Gan (eds.), Advanced Steels:
als 2: An Introduction to Microstructures, Processing The Recent Scenario in Steel Science and Technology.
and Design, third edition. Elsevier: Oxford, 2006. Springer and Metallurgical Industry Press, 2011.

European Commission, FP7 NMP Work Programme, Sources used for elaboration of Chapter 7:
2011.
European sources: European Technology Platfotms
Fisher, E., C. Selin, and J. M. Wetmore, The Year Book (ETPs) documents
of Nanotechnology in Society. Vol. 1: Presenting
Futures. Springer: USA, 2008. ‘Investing in the Development of Low Carbon Tech-
nologies’ (SET-Plan). 2009.
Hannink R., H. J. and A. J. Hill (eds.), Nanostructure
control of materials. Woodhead Publishing Limited: EGCI Ad-hoc Industrial Advisory Group, ‘European
Cambridge, 2006. Green Cars Initiative PPP; Multi-annual roadmap and
long-term strategy’. 2010.
Holley, S. E., ‘Nano Revolution — Big Impact: How
Emerging Nanotechnologies Will Change the Future of ‘Strategic Research Agenda, European Space Technol-
Education and Industry in America (and More Specifi- ogy Platform’, 2006.
cally in Oklahoma), an Abbreviated Account’. Journal
of Technology Studies: 9-19. ‘Roadmap, European Technology Platform for Ad-
vanced Engineering Materials and Technologies’,
Joachim, C., and L. Plevert, Nanosciences. The Invisible 2006.
Revolution. World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.,
2009. ‘Strategic Research Agenda, European Technology
Platform on Sustainable Mineral Resources’, 2009.
Kelsall, R., I. Hamley, and M. Geoghegan (eds.,) Na-
noscale Science and Technology. John Wiley & Sons, ‘Strategic Research Agenda, Waterborne Technology
Ltd.: UK, 2005. Platform’, 2011.

Krueger, A.,. Carbon Materials and Nanotechnology. ‘Strategic Research Agenda, European Technology
Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, 2010. Platform Smartgrids’, 2007.

Linton., J. D., ‘Determining demand, supply, and ‘Strategic Research Agenda, European Technology
pricing for emerging markets based on disruptive Platform for Zero-Emission Fossil Fuel Power Plants’,
process technologies’. Technological Forecasting & 2006.
Social Change 71 (2004):105–120. 2003.
‘Strategic Applications Research Agenda, eMobility
Moskowitz, Sanford L. 2009. Advanced Materials Technology Platform’, 2010.
Revolution Technology and Economic Growth in the
Age of Globalization. A. John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2009. ‘Common Vision for the Renewable Heating and
Cooling Sector in Europe, European Technology
Pinciotta, F. (ed.), Global Climate Change – The Tech- Platform on Renewable Heating and Cooling’, 2011.
nology Challenge. Springer: USA, 2011.
‘Strategic Research Agenda, Sustainable Nuclear
Rensselaer, Advanced Materials Sector Report, Lally Energy Technology Platform’, 2009.
School of Management and Technology. Center for
Economic Growth, 2004. ‘Strategic Research Agenda, European Photovoltaic
Technology Platform’, 2007.
Schulte, J. (ed.), Nanotechnology: Global Strategies,
Industry Trends and Applications. John Willey & Sons: ‘Strategic Research Agenda, European Biofuels Tech-
West Sussex, Ltd. 2005. nology Platform’, 2010.

Waqar A., and M. J. Jackson. Emerging Nanotechnolo- ‘Strategic Research Agenda, European Nanoelectron-
gies for Manufacturing. Elsevier:2009. ics Initiative Advisory Council’, 2007.

82
‘Strategic Research Agenda, Networked European ‘Europe 2020: A European strategy for smart, sustain-
Software and Service Initiative’, 2011. able and inclusive growth’, European Commission,
2010.
‘Strategic Research Agenda, European Technology
Platform Photonics21’, 2010. High Level Group on Key Enabling Technologies,
‘Mastering and deploying Key Enabling Technologies
‘Strategic Research Agenda, European Technology (KETs): Building the bridge to pass across the KETs'
Platform for Sustainable Chemistry’, 2005. “Valley of death” for future European innovation and
competitiveness’ (working document).
‘Strategic Research Agenda, European Wind Energy
Technology Platform’, 2008. High Level Group on Key Enabling Technologies,
‘Thematic report by the Working Team on Advanced
‘Strategic Research Agenda, ARTEMIS European Manufacturing Systems’. 2010.
Technology Platform’, 2011.
High Level Group on Key Enabling Technologies,
‘Strategic Research Agenda, Integral Satcom Initia- ‘Report by the working group on advanced materials
tive’, 2006. technologies’ (working document).

‘Strategic Research Agenda, European Technology ‘Preparing for our future: Developing a common
Platform on Smart Systems Integration’, 2009. strategy for key enabling technologies in the EU’
COM: 512-3, 2009.
‘Strategic Research Agenda, European Technology
Platform on Nanomedicine’, 2006. ‘Research for a Secure Europe: Report of the Group
of Personalities in the field of Security Research’,
‘Strategic Research Agenda, European Technology 2004.
Platform “Plants for the Future”, 2007.
Extra-European sources: research priorities in the
‘Strategic Research Agenda, Forest-based Sector USA, Japan, China and South Korea
Technology Platform’, 2007.
CHINA: ‘China's 12th Five-Year Plan: Overview’,
‘Strategic Research Agenda, European Construction March, 2011.
Technology Platform’, 2005. http://www.kpmg.com/CN/en/IssuesAndInsights/Arti
clesPublications/Publicationseries/5-years-
‘Strategic Research Agenda, Manufuture Technology plan/Documents/China-12th-Five-Year-Plan-
Platform’, 20006. Overview-201104.pdf

‘Strategic Research Agenda, European Technology JAPAN: ‘White Paper on Science and Technology
Platform for the Future of Textiles and Clothing’, 2010— , Chapter 2: Strategic priority setting in Sci-
2006. ence and Technology’ (provisional transla-
tion).http://www.mext.go.jp/english/whitepaper/130
‘Strategic Research Agenda, Water Supply and Sanita- 2537.htm
tion Technology Platform’, 2010.
SOUTH KOREA: Korean Ministry of Science and Tech-
‘Strategic Research Agenda, Advisory Council for nology, ‘Nanotechnology Korea’ (no date).
Aeronautics Research in Europe’, 2004.
SOUTH KOREA: Korea Photonics Technology Institute,
‘Strategic Research Agenda, European Rail Research ‘R&D activities’.
Advisory Council’, 2007. http://www.kopti.re.kr/english/rndactivities/leddevic
e.jsp (accessed 05/08/2011).
‘Strategic Research Agenda, European Road Transport
Research Advisory Council’, 2010. SOUTH KOREA: ‘Korea’s Nanotechnology Roadmap
for the next ten years’, TWA, March, 2011.
European sources: other documents
USA: National Science and Technology Council, Com-
‘Ageing well in the Information Society: An i2010 mittee on Technology, ‘National Nanotechnology
Initiative. Action Plan on Information and Communi- Initiative Strategic Plan’, February, 2011.
cation Technologies and Ageing’, European Commis-
sion, 2007.

83
USA: NSCT Committee on Technology, ‘Nanoe- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),
lectronics for 2020 and beyond’, July, 2010. ‘Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and
Climate Change Mitigation: Summary for Policy Mak-
USA: NSCT Committee on Technology, ‘Nano- ers’, IPCC, 2011.
technology for Solar Energy Collection and
Conversion’, July, 2010.USA: NSCT Committee Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United
on Technology, ‘Nanomaterials and Human Nations (FAO), ‘Biotechnologies for agricultural de-
Health & Instrumentation, Metrology, and Ana- velopment: proceedings of the international technical
lytical Methods: Report of the National Nano- conference on agricultural biotechnologies in devel-
oping countries’, FAO, 2011.
technology Initiative Workshop’, November,
2009.
Extra-European sources: international organisations

International Energy Agency (IEA), ‘Technology


roadmaps’.
http://www.iea.org/subjectqueries/keyresult.asp?KEY
WORD_ID=4156

IEA, ‘Technology Roadmap: Biofuels for Transport’,


OECD/IEA, 2011.

IEA, ‘Carbon Capture and Storage: Progress and Next


Steps’, OECD/IEA, 2010.

IEA, ‘Technology Roadmap: Solar photovoltaic ener-


gy’, OECD/IEA, 2010.

IEA, ‘Technology Roadmap: Wind energy’, OECD/IEA,


2009.

IEA, ‘Technology Roadmaps: Smart grids’, OECD/IEA,


2011.

IEA, ‘Technology Roadmap: Nuclear energy’,


OECD/IEA and OECD/NEA, 2010.

IEA, ‘Technology Roadmap: Geothermal heat and


power’, OECD/IEA, 2011.

IEA, ‘Technology Roadmap: Energy-efficient Buildings:


Heating and Cooling Equipment’, OECD/IEA, 2011.

IEA, ‘Technology Roadmap: Electric and plug-in hybrid


electric vehicles’, OECD/IEA, 2011.

IEA, ‘Technology Roadmap: Concentrating solar


power’, OECD/IEA, 2010.

IEA, ‘Cement Technology Roadmap 2009: Carbon


emissions reductions up to 2050’, OECD/IEA and The
World Business Council for Sustainable Development,
2009.

World Health Organization (WHO), ‘Innovative tech-


nologies that address global health concerns: Out-
come of the call “Global initiative on health technolo-
gies”, WHO, 2010.

84
Study methodology

The most important aim for this study is to and interviewees to be engaged in fur-
conduct solid research in order to create a ther research.
precise overview and define perspectives
2. Collection of information
of the various market segments for Value
Added Materials. Analysts gathered primary information
under this work package. The research
The major study objectives are formulated team conducted a series of interviews
as follows: with two groups of stakeholders:

 definition and classification,  materials experts,

 analysis: VAM by segment,  investors and investment ad-


visors from banks, venture
 detailed current market analysis by capital and private equity
segment and technology application, companies.
 prediction of VAM market develop- The first group of respondents, the
ment by segment, materials experts, was also asked to
 current and potential technological participate in a Delphi group exercise
market drivers by segment, in order to get a wide understanding
of the challenges they face, and dis-
 analysis of potential economic and cuss their definition of VAMs. The
societal issues in the framework of main information gathered helped
grand societal challenges. create further work packages.
The study is based on four main work
The detailed composition of the re-
packages.
spondents groups is presented in An-
1. Identification of information nex 2.

This first work package dealt with 3. Analysis and evaluation of data
preparation of the further stages of
When all relevant primary and sec-
the research as well as with detailed
ondary data were available, the team
analysis of available secondary
elaborated on market analysis and
sources. Using the relevant data gath-
prognosis.
ered in this stage, we conducted a me-
ta-analysis and systematic review. The main challenge for this part of the
Combining the results of several rele- study was to assess the sizes of mar-
vant sources allowed the creation of a kets for VAMs and their share in those
set of related hypotheses (therefore markets. The difficulty of this task was
this integrated both qualitative and intensified by the fact that respond-
quantitative approaches), elaborated ents — materials scientists and private
in more detail and verified in the fol- investors — gave their input in the
lowing work packages. form of interviews. Also the discussion
on definition of VAMs within the Del-
This part of the study also contained
phi Group exercise demonstrated that
preparations of database of experts
85
it would be difficult to establish pre-
cise and detailed information of cur-
rent market shares of VAMs in each
market segment.

The only possible approach therefore


was to analyse existing market size in-
formation and foresights for all sectors
and subsectors (applications), then
draw conclusions based on this analy-
sis with support from qualitative in-
formation obtained and other second-
ary sources (roadmaps and foresights).
We used triangulation to assure the
data from interviews with market in-
vestors.

4. Conclusion
This part prepared the final report and
disseminated the study outcomes.

86
Annex 1. Market foresights relevant for Value Added Materials

Figure 18: Energy-related markets for VAMs — selected foresights overview

Source: selected BCC Research estimates. Design: Oxford Research AS. Unit: billion euro.
87
88

Figure 19: Environment-related markets for VAMs — selected foresights overview

Source: selected BCC Research estimates. Design: Oxford Research AS. Unit: billion euro.
Figure 20: Transport-related markets for VAMs — selected foresights overview

Source: selected BCC Research estimates. Design: Oxford Research AS., Unit: billion euro.
89
90

Figure 21: Health-related markets for VAMs — foresights from ‘Roadmaps in Nanomedicine’

Source: ‘Roadmaps in nanomedicine: towards 2020‘. Design: Oxford Research AS. Unit: billion euros.
Figure 22: Health-related markets for VAMs — selected foresights overview

Source: selected BCC Research estimates. Design: Oxford Research AS., Unit: billion euro.
91
92

Figure 23: ICT-related markets for VAMs — selected foresights overview70

Source: selected BCC Research estimates. Design: Oxford Research AS. Unit: billion euro.

70The market for “‘superconducting electrical equipment’, reaching 622 billion euro, was presented within ICT sector following other sources and approaches. It can be of course also associated with the energy sector analysed in
chapters above. This sector’s expected growth has also influenced the total share of materials foresighted use in ICT sector discussed at previous page.
Figure 24: Selected cross-cutting markets for VAMs — foresights overview7172

Source: selected BCC Research estimate., Design: Oxford Research AS. Unit: billion euro.

71 It is interesting that graphene products are emerging — from close to zero market up to a total of 472 million euro in 2020.
72 Full record of ’long names’ categories can be found in table below.
93
94

Table 9: Overview of identified market size values for sectors covered with the study73
Sector / applica- Sub sector / Source Unit 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 CAGR
tion application
Energy Market- trillion € 4,235 7,8752 13 %
Research.com 8
Energy US EIA quadrillion 495,1 543,5 590,5 638,7 687 738,7
BTU
Liquids US EIA quadrillion 174,71 179 186 197 210 223,6
BTU
Natural gas US EIA quadrillion 112,13 129 141 150 155 162
BTU
Coal US EIA quadrillion 132,45 139 152 168 186 206
BTU
Nuclear US EIA quadrillion 27,1 32 37 41 44 47
BTU
Renewables US EIA quadrillion 48,83 64 73 82 91 100
BTU
Hydropower US EIA kwhours 2999 3689 4166 4 591 5034 5 418
Wind US EIA kwhours 165 682 902 1 115 1234 1 355
Geothermal US EIA kwhours 57 98 108 119 142 160
Solar (photovolta- US EIA kwhours 6 95 126 140 153 165
ics)
Other US EIA kwhours 235 394 515 653 733 874
Advanced materi- BCC Research billion € 8,12 11,83 8%
als for renewable
energy systems
Biogas plant BCC Research billion € 2,1 6,02 30 %
equipment
Alternative energy BCC Research billion € 0,2275 0,2961 5%
storage
Electrochemical BCC Research billion € 0,1652 0,2254 6%
batteries
Fuel cells BCC Research billion € 0,0175 0,0308 12 %

73The market was gathered from various sources and denominated into euro using exchange rate being and average from 120 days before September 15 th, 2011.
1 USD = 0,70 €; 1 GBP = 1,16 €O
Sector / applica- Sub sector / Source Unit 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 CAGR
tion application
PV shipments BCC Research billion € 28,84 54,6 14 %
PV modules BCC Research billion € 18,55 32,9 12 %
materials
Supercapacitors BCC Research billion € 0,0574 0,4277 49 %
for the energy
sector

Utility-scale energy BCC Research billion € 2,8 12,95


storage
Energy- BCC Research billion € 42 49 3%
management
systems
Power electronics BCC Research billion € 6,86 12,39 22 %
Power MOSFETs BCC Research billion € 3,36 5,18 16 %
Stationary Fuel BCC Research billion € 0,0860 1,82 55 %
cells 3
Components for BCC Research billion € 0,2681 0,6839 21 %
PEM fuel cell
membrane elec-
trode assembly
(MEA) - membrane,
bipolar plates,
gaseous diffusion
layers, catalyst ink
and electrodes

Membranes BCC Research billion € 0,14 0,2968 16 %


Inks and catalysts BCC Research billion € 0,0721 0,2478 28 %
Large and ad- BCC Research billion € 5,74 7,7 6%
vanced batteries
Lithium battery BCC Research billion € 6,02 6,93 3%
market
Nanoparticles used BCC Research billion € 0,2554 0,91 29 %
in energy, catalytic 3
and structural
applications
Portable battery- BCC Research billion € 297,71 323,05 1%
powered products
95
96

Sector / applica- Sub sector / Source Unit 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 CAGR
tion application
Transport Datamonitor trillion € 3,15
Supercapacitors BCC Research billion € 0,0444 0,1974 35 %
for the transporta- 5
tion sector
Market for electric BCC Research billion € 18,2 54,6 20 %
vehicles
Associated power BCC Research billion € 3,22 5,32 9%
source market
Market for hybrid BCC Research billion € 13,51 32,34 19 %
electric vehicles
HEV (Hybrid) and BCC Research billion € 0,91 1,82 15 %
PHEV (Plug-in
hybrid) battery
market
LED shipments for BCC Research billion € 0,5946 0,91 7%
the automotive 5
market
Automotive BCC Research billion € 8,82 13,37 7%
sensors
Thick film energy BCC Research billion € 10,15 21,77 16 %
devices
Lightweight BCC Research billion € 66,85 87,71 6%
materials for
transportation
Environment U.S. Depart- billion € 461,3 490 2%
ment of
Commerce
World market for WSSTP 2010 billion € 300
water and SRA
wastewater
Wastewater BCC Research billion € 39,9 65,1 28 %
treatment delivery
equipment,
instrumentation,
process equip-
ment and treat-
ment chemicals

Delivery equipment BCC Research billion € 14 23,8 11 %


Treatment chemi- BCC Research billion € 8,4 11,2 6%
cals
Sector / applica- Sub sector / Source Unit 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 CAGR
tion application
Energy-efficient BCC Research billion € 140 218,19 9%
technologies
Combined heat- BCC Research billion € 38,5 63 9%
and-power
installations and
retrofitting
Membrane BCC Research billion € 0,2359 0,4389 11 %
bioreactors
Microfiltration BCC Research billion € 0,84 1,26 8%
membrane
products used in
liquid separation
Nanofiltration BCC Research billion € 0,0682 0,2173 26 %
membranes 5 5
Nanofiltration BCC Research billion € 0,0496 0,1667 27 %
membranes for 3 4
water treatment
Barrier materials that BCC Research billion € 0,42 0,7 11 %
impart controlled-
release properties
Desalination plant BCC Research billion € 2,03 3,85 14 %
equipment
Reverse osmosis BCC Research billion € 0,98 2,24 18 %
desalination
equipment
Thermal desalina- BCC Research billion € 0,98 1,54 9%
tion equipment
Controlled-release BCC Research billion € 0,42 0,7 11 %
barrier materials
Carbon capture BCC Research billion € 62,09 165,41 63 %
technologies
Nanostructured BCC Research billion € 0,98 1,54 9%
products for water
treatment
Well-established BCC Research billion € 0,98 1,47 8%
products for water
treatment (reverse
osmosis, nanofil-
tration, ultrafiltra-
tion membrane
modules)
97
98

Sector / applica- Sub sector / Source Unit 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 CAGR
tion application
Emerging products BCC Research billion € 0,0315 0,0784 20 %
(nanofibre filters,
carbon nanotubes,
nanoparticles)
Nanotechnology BCC Research billion € 1,4 15,26 61 %
for environmental
applications
Specialty chemi- BCC Research billion € 14,7 19,53 6%
cals for water
treatment
Corrosion inhibi- BCC Research billion € 3,22 4,27 6%
tors
Coagulants and BCC Research billion € 2,87 3,78 6%
flocculants

Health Photonics 21 billion € data 641,9


report "Light- only for
ing the way Europe
ahead"
Health market size Plunkett trillion € in 3,15 3,85 5%
Research®, 2006
Ltd.2006
Pharmaceutical Plunkett billion € 3,22
Raw Materials Research®,
Industry Ltd.2006
Dietary Supple- Plunkett billion €
ments Research®,
Ltd.2007

Alternative Plunkett billion € 1,89


Medication Research®,
Ltd.2008
Biotechnology Plunkett billion € 35,49
Research®,
Ltd.2009
Healthcare Plunkett billion € 35
Services Research®,
Ltd.2010
Pharmaceutical Plunkett billion € 238 360 15 %
(drug market) Research®,
Sector / applica- Sub sector / Source Unit 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 CAGR
tion application
Optical healthcare BMBF billion € 16,1 30,1 8%
equipment Optische
Techno-logien
2007, used in
Photonics 21
report "Light-
ing the way
ahead"
Biophotonics Photonics 21 billion €
(including x-ray, report "Light-
PET and ultra- ing the way
sound) ahead"
Nanodiagnostics Clinical imager "Roadmaps in billion € 0,05 0,7 70 %
in vivo imaging nano medi-
cine: towards
2020"
Tumour therapy "Roadmaps in billion € 0,001 0,02 0,1 38 %
delivery system nano medi-
cine: towards
2020"
SPIO/USPIO "Roadmaps in billion € 0,01 0,1 1 58 %
(contrast agents) nano medi-
cine: towards
2020" (38)
Nanostructures as "Roadmaps in billion € 0,01 0,1 58 %
carriers plus drug nano medi-
release cine: towards
2020"
Nanodiagnostics Hospital "Roadmaps in billion € 0,2 0,7 1,5 16 %
in vitro imaging nano medi-
cine: towards
2020"

Physician office "Roadmaps in billion € 1 1,5 8%


nanomedicine:
towards 2020"
Home "Roadmaps in billion € 1,5
nanomedicine:
towards 2020"
99
100

Sector / applica- Sub sector / Source Unit 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 CAGR
tion application
Nano pharmaceu- Non-invasive "Roadmaps in billion € 10 20 15 %
ticals delivery of protein nanomedicine:
nanomedicines towards 2020"
Non-invasive "Roadmaps in billion € 5 10 15 %
delivery of DNA- nano medi-
based nanomedi- cine: towards
cines 2020"
Non-invasive "Roadmaps in billion € 2 4 15 %
delivery of non- nano medi-
Lipinski molecule cine: towards
2020"
(Enabler) computa- "Roadmaps in billion € 0,015 0,02 0,04 15 %
tional tool nano medi-
cine: towards
2020"
Radical innovation- "Roadmaps in billion € 1 3 25 %
based nanomedi- nano medicine:
cines towards 2020"

Activated nanopar- "Roadmaps in billion € 0,5 2 32 %


ticles devices for x- nano medi-
ray modality cine: towards
2020"
Targeting drugs to "Roadmaps in billion € 2 6 25 %
facilitate cell nano medi-
differentiation cine: towards
2020"
Nanodevices Focused ultrasound "Roadmaps in billion € 0,175 0,35 5 70 %
therapy system, nano medi-
equipment only cine: towards
2020"
Linked MRI, "Roadmaps in billion € 0,175 0,35 0,5 7%
equipment only nano medi-
cine: towards
2020"
Pressure and "Roadmaps in billion € 0,09 0,35 0,75 16 %
thermosensitivie nano medi-
drugs cine: towards
2020"
Targeted therapies "Roadmaps in billion € 30
in oncology nano medicine:
towards 2020"
Sector / applica- Sub sector / Source Unit 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 CAGR
tion application
Anti-inflammatory "Roadmaps in billion €
diseases nano medi-
cine: towards
2020"
CNS diseases "Roadmaps in billion € 5 8 10 %
nano medi-
cine: towards
2020"
Regenerative Biocompatible "Roadmaps in billion € 35 43 52 4%
medicine: smart biomaterials nano medicine:
biomaterials towards 2020"
Regenerative Non stem cell "Roadmaps in billion € 1 2,5 20 %
medicine: cell based therapies nano medi-
therapies cine: towards
2020"
Tissue engineering "Roadmaps in billion € 10 20 15 %
nano medi-
cine: towards
2020"
Stem cell therapies "Roadmaps in billion € 1 7 48 %
nano medi-
cine: towards
2020"
Supporting "Roadmaps in billion € 3,5 8 18 %
technologies nano medi-
cine: towards
2020"
Clinical healthcare BCC Research billion € 4,41 12,25 19 %
IT technologies
Medical device BCC Research billion € 6,3
sensors
Semiconduc- BCC Research billion € 3,5 4,55 5%
tor/MEMS sensors
Passive medical BCC Research billion € 0,98 0,91 -1 %
device sensors
Nanomedicine BCC Research billion € 37,1 70 14 %
Medical lasers BCC Research billion € 1,61 3,36 16 %
Market for portable BCC Research billion € 46,55
battery-powered
products in the
medical sector
101
102

Sector / applica- Sub sector / Source Unit 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 CAGR
tion application
Minimally invasive BCC Research billion € 9,38 14,77 8%
medical devices
and instruments

Microelectronic BCC Research billion € 10,78 17,36 8%


implants, accesso-
ries and supplies
Microelectronic BCC Research billion € 10,57 16,17 9%
implants
Medical device BCC Research billion € 3,29 5,25 10 %
coatings
Medical market for BCC Research billion € 1,12 2,38 13 %
nanoparticles
Medical enzymes BCC Research billion € 4,2 5,04 4%
Biomarkers BCC Research billion € 9,45 23,31 20 %
RNAi drug delivery BCC Research billion € 4,9 16,87 28 %
market
Biotechnologies BCC Research billion € 77,35 156,03 15 %
used in medical
applications
Weight-loss BCC Research billion € 84,7 93,8 2%
products and
services
Weight-loss foods BCC Research billion € 55,3 60,2 2%
and beverages
Nutraceuticals BCC Research billion € 2,52 2,73 2%
Medical mem- BCC Research billion € 1,400 1,464 1,532 1,602 1,676 1,753 5%
brane device
products (dialys-
ers, blood
oxygenators, IV
filters,
blood/apheresis
filters)
Quantum dots for BCC Research billion € 0,0336 0,1253 25 %
the biomedical
sector
Nanoparticles for BCC Research billion € 0,3633
biomedical
applications
Sector / applica- Sub sector / Source Unit 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 CAGR
tion application
Microspheres used BCC Research billion € 0,3367 0,98 24 %
in medical tech-
nology
Security and safety Photonics 21 billion €
(equipment) report "Light-
ing the way
ahead"
Market for portable BCC Research billion € 1,26 2,24 12 %
battery-powered
products in the
military sector
Surveillance BCC Research billion € 54,6 97,44 10 %
equipment market
Mobile location BCC Research billion € 16,24 34,16 16 %
technologies
Vehicle navigation BCC Research billion € 11,06 26,74 19 %
Biometric technol- BCC Research billion € 3,5 8,4 19 %
ogies
Enzymes for textile billion €
processing
Chemical industry American billion € 2402,4
Chemistry
Council
Paints and BCC Research billion € 69,79 81,62 3%
coatings
Powder coating BCC Research billion € 12,6 16,1 5%
and emerging
technologies
segment

Waterborne BCC Research billion € 43,82 47,6 2%


technologies
Adhesives and BCC Research billion € 28,56 36,47 5%
sealants
Pesticides BCC Research billion € 30,1 35,7 3%
Biopesticides BCC Research billion € 1,12 2,31 16 %
Synthetic pesti- BCC Research billion € 28,7 33,6 3%
cides
Agrochemical BCC Research billion € 83,72 137,2 10 %
products
103
104

Sector / applica- Sub sector / Source Unit 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 CAGR
tion application
Fertilisers BCC Research billion € 47,88 82,46 11 %
Pesticides BCC Research billion € 35,84 54,81 9%
Powder coatings BCC Research billion € 4,55 6,37 7%
Total ICT sector The World trillion € 2,38 2,52 2,45 2,625 2,87 3,08 3,22 5%
Information
Technology
and Services
Alliance,
DIGITAL
PLANET 2010
Hardware Digital Planet trillion € 0,315 0,343 0,336 0,336 0,364 0,392 0,413 5%
Software Digital Planet trillion € 0,245 0,252 0,252 0,259 0,266 0,273 0,28 2%

Services Digital Planet trillion € 0,49 0,525 0,49 0,525 0,56 0,595 0,665 5%
Communications Digital Planet trillion € 1,33 1,47 1,435 1,575 1,68 1,82 1,89 6%
Electronics ENIAC 2007 billion € 773,5
industry SRA
Market for elec- ENIAC 2007 billion € 1400 2240 10 %
tronics products SRA
(BCC)
Materials and ENIAC 2007 billion € 56,7
equipment SRA
Semiconductors ENIAC 2007 billion € 196
SRA
Compound BCC Research billion € 11,2 23,59 16 %
semiconductors
Compound semicon- BCC Re- billion € 4,004 6,685 11 %
ductors for wireless search
electronic devices
Compound semicon- BCC Research billion € 1,155 2,401 16 %
ductors for optical
data storage
Compound semicon- BCC Research billion € 0,805 4,249 39 %
ductors for fibre
optics communica-
tions
Compound semicon- BCC Research billion € 1,33 1,631 4%
ductors illuminations
Sector / applica- Sub sector / Source Unit 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 CAGR
tion application
Compound BCC Research billion € 0,063 1,365 85 %
semiconductors for
solar cells
Compound BCC Research billion € 0,63 2,8 35 %
semiconductors for
new markets
Transparent BCC Research billion € 53,48 86,1 10 %
electronic compo-
nents
Organic materials BCC Research billion € 1,47 14,21 57 %
for transparent
electronic compo-
nents
Inorganic materials BCC Research billion € 51,8 72,1 7%
for transparent
electronic compo-
nents
Memory to BCC Research billion € 32,34 55,3 11 %
semiconductor
manufacturers and
end users
Mainstream BCC Research billion € 17,64 29,05 10 %
memory (e.g.
DRAM)
New age memory BCC Research billion € 8,96 17,99 15 %
(e.g. NAND flash)
Conformal coatings BCC Research billion € 4,62 1,61 -19 %
for electronics

Conformal coating BCC Research billion € 1,05 1,61 9%


materials
Conformal coating BCC Research billion € 3,57 4,83 6%
equipment
Market for mobile BCC Research billion € 36,4
telematics systems
PVD equipment for BCC Research billion € 1,96 3,01 9%
the microelectron-
ics industry

Thermal manage- BCC Research billion € 5,25 7,14 6%


ment products
105
106

Sector / applica- Sub sector / Source Unit 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 CAGR
tion application
Thermal interface BCC Research billion € 0,273 0,4387 8%
materials 6
Polymer-based BCC Research billion € 0,2397 0,3845 8%
TIM 5 1
Metal-based TIM BCC Research billion € 0,0248 0,0376 7%
5 6
Phase-change TIM BCC Research billion € 0,0084 0,0166 12 %
7 6
Paper thin displays BCC Research billion € 0,98 5,81 43 %
Paper-thin displays BCC Research billion € 0,91 5,67 44 %
for electronic
portable devices

Paper-thin displays BCC Research billion € 7,7 30,8 32 %


for advertising
Fibre optic BCC Research billion € 1,33 2,17 9%
connectors (FOC)
Electronic chemi- Electronics billion € 19,95 36,12 13 %
cals and materials .ca

Wafers Electronics .ca billion € 10,29 18,69 13 %


Polymers and Electronics billion € 1,33 4,13 25 %
conductive .ca
polymers
Microelectronics BCC Research billion € 2,03 5,6 18 %
cleaning equip-
ment, consuma-
bles and services
Cleaning chemi- BCC Research billion € 1,47 3,5 16 %
cals, gases and
other consumables
Cleaning equip- BCC Research billion € 0,7 1,68 16 %
ment
Atomic layer BCC Research billion € 0,2226 0,6846 21 %
deposition
Atomic layer BCC Research billion € 0,1617 0,4053 17 %
deposition equip-
ment
Sector / applica- Sub sector / Source Unit 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 CAGR
tion application
Atomic layer BCC Research billion € 0,0609 0,2796 29 %
deposition materi- 5
als
Microelectromech- BCC Research billion € 5,32 9,24 12 %
anical (MEM)
devices production
and equipment
Microfluidic MEMs BCC Research billion € 2,45 3,01 4%
Accelerometers BCC Research billion € 0,504 1,89 30 %
Dielectrics and BCC Research billion € 9,45 12,81 6%
substrates for
semiconductors
Substrates BCC Research billion € 8,4 11,2 6%
Dielectrics market BCC Research billion € 0,98 1,54 9%
Optical coatings for the BCC Research billion € 1,75 1,96 2%
electronics market
OLED (Organic BCC Research billion € 2,73 5,67 16 %
Light-Emitting
Diodes)
OLED for displays BCC Research billion € 2,03 4,13 15 %
market
OLED for lights BCC Research billion € 0,7 1,54 14 %
market
Direct methanol Electronics billion € 0,0459 0,77 60 %
fuel cells (used to .ca 2
make batteries)
Strained silicon Electronics billion € 2,45
(used to make .ca
semiconductors
devices)
Robotics industry BCC Research billion € 12,32 14,98 4%
Nanorobots and BCC Research billion € 0,0282 0,5812 174 %
NEMs, and related 1 8
equipment and
materials
Market for sensors BCC Research billion € 39,41 64,05 8%
Biosensors and BCC Research billion € 9,1 14,7 10 %
chemical sensors
Image sensors BCC Research billion € 12,6 18,9 8%
107
108

Sector / applica- Sub sector / Source Unit 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 CAGR
tion application
Microsensors BCC Research billion € 3,64 8,4 15 %
MEMs microsen- BCC Research billion € 2,24 4,55 15 %
sors
Nanosensors BCC Research billion € 4,55 26,6 42 %
Biochips sensors BCC Research billion € 0,35 1,26
Nanoparticles BCC Research billion € 0,3653 0,77 16 %
used in electronic, 3
magnetic and
optoelectronic
applications
Electronic applica- BCC Research billion € 0,2891 0,6097 16 %
tions
Thick film display BCC Research billion € 0,84 1,96 18 %
devices
Superconductors BCC Research billion € 1,4 2,38 11 %
Super conducting BCC Research billion € 1,33 1,68 5%
magnets

Super conducting BCC Research billion € 16,1 622,3 108 %


electrical equip-
ment

Information and EPOSS 2009 billion € 2350


Communication SRA
industry
Telecommunica- Photonics 21 billion € 2380
tions market SRA "Lighting
the way
ahead"
Optical network Photonics 21 billion € 9,8
equipment market SRA "Lighting
the way
ahead"
Optical component Photonics 21 billion € 2,8
market SRA "Lighting
the way
ahead"
Smart systems EPOSS 2009 billion € 65
SRA
Sector / applica- Sub sector / Source Unit 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 CAGR
tion application
Monitoring and EPOSS 2009 billion € 188
Control products SRA
and solutions
Monitoring and EPOSS 2009 billion € 17
control products SRA
and solutions for
the vehicle market
e-health market EPOSS 2009 billion €
SRA
Market for portable BCC Research billion € 310,24 323,05
battery-powered products
Market for portable BCC Research billion € 89,32 84 -1 %
battery-powered
products in the
communication sector
Market for portable BCC Research billion € 71,33
battery-powered
products in the
computer sector
Automation BCC Research billion € 43,68 50,82 3%
systems

Embedded BCC Research billion € 64,4 78,75 4%


systems
Embedded BCC Research billion € 62,86 76,72 4%
hardware
Embedded BCC Research billion € 1,54 2,03 6%
software
market for ad- BCC Research billion € 0,0924 0,91 46 %
vanced intelligent
wireless microsys-
tems
Fibre optic BCC Research billion € 1,33 2,03 9%
connectors for
telecommunica-
tions
LEDs for display BCC Research billion € 0,6531 1,05 10 %
backlighting
Photonics industry Photonics 21 billion € 270
SRA "Lighting
the way
ahead"
109
110

Sector / applica- Sub sector / Source Unit 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 CAGR
tion application
Green photonics (photonics Photonics 21 SRA billion € 20,23 70 182,7 20 %
solutions that generate or "Lighting the way
conserve energy, cut greenhouse ahead"
gas emissions, reduce pollution,
yield environmentally sustainable
outputs or improve public health)
Lighting market "Lighting the way ahead" billion € 58
Photonics 21 SRA
Professional "Lighting the way billion € 20,3
luminaires ahead" Photonics
21 SRA
Consumer "Lighting the way billion € 16,24
luminaires ahead" Photonics
21 SRA
Luminaire "Lighting the way billion € 36
market ahead" Photonics
21 SRA
Lamps "Lighting the way billion € 11,6
ahead" Photonics
21 SRA
LED compo- "Lighting the way billion € 1,74
nents ahead" Photonics
21 SRA
Lighting "Lighting the way billion € 5,22
electronics ahead" Photonics
21 SRA
Automotive "Lighting the way billion € 2,9
and special ahead" Photonics
lighting 21 SRA
applications
LED-based "Lighting the way billion € 3,71 10,43 19 %
luminaires ahead" Photonics
21 SRA
OLED-lighting "Lighting the way billion € 3,5
ahead" Photonics
21 SRA
Safety and security "Lighting the billion € 22 48 10 %
equipment using way ahead"
photonic sensors Photonics 21
SRA
Safety "Lighting the way ahead" billion € 7
Photonics 21 SRA
Sector / applica- Sub sector / Source Unit 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 CAGR
tion application
Air pollution "Lighting the billion € 2
detection way ahead"
Photonics 21
SRA
Automotive sector "Lighting the billion € 5
way ahead"
Photonics 21
SRA
Security "Lighting the billion € 15
way ahead"
Photonics 21
SRA
Biometrics "Lighting the billion € 5
way ahead"
Photonics 21
SRA
Videosurveil-lance "Lighting the billion € 5
way ahead"
Photonics 21
SRA
Optical coatings BCC Research billion € 3,22 3,99 4%
Quantum dots for BCC Research billion € 0,217
the optoelectronics
sector

Silicon photonics Electronics billion € 1,365


product market .ca
Wavelength Electronics billion € 0,434
division multiplex .ca
filter

Photonic crystals BCC Research billion € 1,54 24,15 58 %


Photonic crystals BCC Research billion € 4,2
for displays
Photonic crystals BCC Research billion € 7,56
for optical fibres
111
112

Sector / applica- Sub sector / Source Unit 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 CAGR
tion application
Food industry CIAA (in KBBE billion € 2800
2010 report)
Food products contain- ‘Nanotechnol- billion € 0,287 4,06 70 %
ing nanotechnology ogies and
food‘, 2010
House of
Lords report
(UK)
Probiotic supple- BCC Research billion € 15,12 21,77 8%
ments, ingredients
and foods
Active, controlled and BCC Research billion € 11,83 16,52
intelligent packaging for
food and beverage
Entertainment BCC Research billion € 46,83 58,31
industry
Entertainment BCC Research billion € 35,63 45,15
technology
devices
Enzymes billion €
Enzymes for BCC Research billion € 2,31 3,08 6%
industrial applica-
tions
Technical enzymes BCC Research billion € 0,7 1,05 8%
Food and bever- BCC Research billion € 0,6825 0,91 6%
age enzymes
Biochips BCC Research billion € 1,82 4,13 18 %
DNA microarrays BCC Research billion € 0,91 1,89 16 %
(type of chip)
LOAC (type of BCC Research billion € 0,5719 1,47 21 %
chip)
Nanotechnology Roco, Mirkin and billion € 177,8 700 26 %
Hersam. Sept 2010
Nano-enabled Roco, Mirkin and billion € 156,8
products Hersam. Sept 2010
Nano- Roco, Mirkin and billion € 20,3
intermediates Hersam. Sept 2010
Nano-materials Roco, Mirkin and billion € 0,7
Hersam. Sept 2010
Sector / applica- Sub sector / Source Unit 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 CAGR
tion application
Nanotechnology in Roco, Mirkin billion € 97,3
the manufactur- and Hersam.
ing and materials Sept 2010.
sector

Nanotechnology in Roco, Mirkin billion € 53,2


the electronics and and Hersam.
IT sector Sept 2010
Nanotechnology in Roco, Mirkin billion € 23,8
healthcare and life and Hersam.
sciences Sept 2010
Nanotechnology in Roco, Mirkin billion € 2,8
the energy and and Hersam.
environment Sept 2010
sector
Quantum dots BCC Research billion € 0,0469 0,469 58 %
(nanocrystals)
Nanobiotechnol- BCC Research billion € 0,0135 20,79 334 %
ogy products 1
Nanobiotechnology BCC Research billion € 13,37 20,3 9%
products for medical
applications
Carbon nanotubes BCC Research billion € 0,07 0,7 58 %
grades (MWNTs,
SWNTs, FWNTs)
Multi-wall Carbon BCC Research billion € 0,0721 0,6058 53 %
Nanotubes 5
Few-wall Carbon BCC Research billion € 0,0005 0,0437 140 %
Nanotubes 53 5
Nanotechnology BCC Research billion € 8,19 18,2 14 %
Nanomaterials BCC Research billion € 6,3 13,72 14 %
Nanotools BCC Research billion € 1,82 4,76 17 %
Nanodevices BCC Research billion € 0,0217 0,1635 40 %
9
Nanofibre products BCC Research billion € 0,0627 1,54 34 %
9
Nanofibre products BCC Research billion € 0,0520 0,98 34 %
for the mechani- 1
cal/chemical sector
113
114

Sector / applica- Sub sector / Source Unit 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 CAGR
tion application
Nanofibre products BCC Research billion € 0,0044 0,2261 48 %
for the electronics 8
sector
Nanocomposites BCC Research billion € 0,322 0,966 25 %
Clay-based BCC Research billion € 0,1588 0,4846 25 %
nanocomposites 3 1
Ceramic-containing BCC Research billion € 0,0337 0,1016 25 %
nanocomposites 4 4
Nanocoatings and BCC Research billion € 1,61 13,37 42 %
nanoadhesives
Nanocoatings BCC Research billion € 1,47 12,53 43 %
Nanoadhesives BCC Research billion € 0,1197 0,84 38 %
Manufacturing billion €
Physical vapour BCC Research billion € 6,3 10,36 10 %
deposition (PVD)
PVD equipment BCC Research billion € 4,48 7,35 10 %
Chemical vapour BCC Research billion € 5,11 8,26
deposition
Ion implantation BCC Research billion € 3,08
Inorganic metal BCC Research billion € 29,61 42,77 6%
finishing technolo-
gies
Advanced protective BCC Research billion € 2,8 3,64 5%
gear and armour
Other \ Unclassi-
fied
Smart materials BCC Research billion € 13,72 28 13 %
Motors and BCC Research billion € 7,56 17,78 15 %
actuators
Transducers BCC Research billion € 4,69 6,58 6%
Structural materials BCC Research billion € 0,77 2,38 21 %
Sensors BCC Research billion € 0,714 1,12 8%
Graphene prod- BCC Re- billion € 0,469 0,4725 0%
ucts search/elec-
tronics.ca
Sector / applica- Sub sector / Source Unit 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 CAGR
tion application
Graphene structur- BCC Re- billion € 0,0122 0,0637 39 %
al materials search/elec- 5
tronics.ca
Capacitors BCC Re- billion € 0,0182 0,238 67 %
search/elec-
tronics.ca
Displays electronics.ca billion € 0,0306
6
Photovoltaics electronics.ca billion € 0,0052 0,0245 36 %
5
Thermal manage- electronics.ca billion € 0,0105 0,0157 8%
ment 5
Microspheres BCC Research billion € 1,4 2,45 12 %
Ceramic matrix BCC Research billion € 0,609 0,91 8%
composites
(CMCs)
CMCs for the mechani- BCC Research billion € 0,2205 0,3262 8%
cal-chemical sector
CMCs for the energy BCC Research billion € 0,1939 0,2758 7%
and environment sector
Metal matrix BCC Research mln kg 3,08 4,13 6%
composites
MMCs for ground BCC Research mln kg 1,68 2,24 7%
transportation
sector
MMCs for electron- BCC Research mln kg 1,05 1,47 7%
ics/thermal
management
sector

Photocatalyst BCC Research billion € 0,5929 1,19 15 %


products
Photocatalyst BCC Research billion € 0,5182 1,05 15 %
products for the 1
construction sector
Photocatalyst BCC Research billion € 0,0595 0,1106 13 %
products for the
consumer market
Thick film devices BCC Research billion € 18,69 34,86 13 %
Rare earths BCC Research thousand tons 79,52 122,92 9%
115
116

Sector / applica- Sub sector / Source Unit 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 CAGR
tion application
Mechanical and BCC Research thousand tons 25,76 39,48 9%
metallurgic
applications
Glass and ceram- BCC Research thousand tons 22,75 34,23 9%
ics applications
Aerogels (2.6% of BCC Research billion € 0,0580 0,4524 51 %
the market for 3 1
microporous and
nanoporous
materials in 2008)
Market for metals BCC Research billion € 454,58 625,94 7%
(secondary and
mined metals)

Smart glass BCC Research billion € 0,7 1,33 14 %


Smart glass for BCC Research billion € 0,6223 1,12 12 %
transportation
applications
Smart glass for BCC Research billion € 0,0970 0,1528 9%
construction 9 1
applications
Powder metal BCC Research billion € 0,6894 1,33 14 %
injection moulding 3
Ceramic injection BCC Research billion € 0,2761 0,5607 15 %
moulding compo- 5
nents

Liquid metal BCC Research billion € 0,2210 0,3255 8%


moulding compo- 6
nents
Metamaterials BCC Research billion € 0,1334 1,82 69 %
9
Electromagnetic BCC Research billion € 0,0822 0,2213 22 %
metamaterials 5 4
Extreme parameter BCC Research billion € 0,0512 0,2109 33 %
and other met- 4 8
amaterials
Biodegradable BCC Research billion € 1,0811 2,9 22 %
polymer market 2
Packaging seg- BCC Research billion € 0,7609 1,972 21 %
ment 6
Sector / applica- Sub sector / Source Unit 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 CAGR
tion application
Fibre/fabric BCC Research billion € 0,1554 0,5046 27 %
segment 4
EMI/RFI shielding BCC Research billion € 3,15 3,64 3%
options
Nonwoven BCC Research billion € 13,804 18,096 6%
materials
Polymeric foams BCC Research billion € 8,7 9,976 3%
Plastic additives BCC Research billion € 26,18 32,06 4%
Property modifiers BCC Research billion € 13,09 16,03 4%
Property stabilisers BCC Research billion € 8,82 10,78 4%
Polymer absor- BCC Research billion € 0,0029 0,0049 11 %
bents and adsor- 4
bents
Conductive BCC Research billion € 0,4756
polymers
Advanced ceram- EuMat 2006 billion € 39,48
ics SRA (for
2004);
electronics.ca
(for 2015)
117
118

Annex 2 – Composition of respondents groups

Table 10: List of interviewed materials experts


Area Institution Name of the expert
Forestry FTP sprl Mr Johan Elvnert - FTP manager

Forestry CEI-Bois chairman (European Confedera- Jukka Kilpeläinen SVP of Corporate R&D
tion of woodworking industries) Stora
Enso Wood Products
€ATEX and Biotex: a joint initiative Euratex Lutz Walter– €ATEXT (SRA chief editor)
by 2 ETPs: €ATEXT and (biotechnolo-
gy)
Net!Works: Converged fixed and Alcatel-Lucent, Bell Labs Germany Bernd Gloss
Wireless Communication Networks
(also called eMobility)
ECTP (European Construction tech- Heidelberg Cement - Head of Re- Wolfgang Dienemann - Co-leader of the Working group on
nology Platform) search&Development Cementitious within the Focus Area on Materials

EPoSS: The European Technology Microsystems Technology Prof. Dr. Alex Dommann - Leader of the Key technologies
Platform on Smart Systems Integra- CSEM SA Working Group within EPoSS
tion
Food for Life Food and Consumer Product Safety Au- Dr Jacqueline Castenmiller - Facilitator of the working
thority (NL) group on Food and Health within the ETP
ERRAC: European Rail Research Network Rail (UK) John Amoore - leader of the "Competitiveness" working
Advisory Council group within ERRAC
Federation of European Materials FEMS - Executive officer, Consultant Dr. Jean-Marie Welter President of the Société Française
Societies de Métallurgie et de Matériaux (SF2M) from 2005-2006.
Currently a technical consultant to the copper industry.
Energy National Renewable Energy Laboratory Prof. David Ginley Dr. David Ginley, Research Fel-
(NREL) low/Group Manager Process Technology and Advanced
Concepts
University/Research National Institute for Materials Science Sukekatsu Ushioda, Ph. D., President National Institute for
(NIMS) Materials Science (NIMS), Japan
EuMaT: European Technology Plat- MEGGITT Wanda Wolny - Chair of the Working group on Materials
form for Advanced Engineering Ma- for Information and Communication Technology at EuMaT.
terials and Technologies

Manutext: a joint initiative by 2 ITA Aachen Prof. Thomas Gries; Institute of Textile Technology at
ETPs: Manufuture and Future tex- RWTH Aachen University and Chair for textile machinery
tiles and Clothing. (ITA)
SNETP: Sustainable nuclear energy SCK-CEN (Belgian Nuclear Research cen- Dr. Leo Sannen; Manager Nuclear Materials Science (NMS)
Technology Platform tre) Institute SCK-CEN
Dr. Marc Scibetta, Deputy Institute Manager Nuclear Ma-
terials Science
FEMS (Federation of European Ma- Federal Institute for Materials Research Dr. Ing. Pedro D. Portella
terials Societies) - President of the and Testing, BAM, Berlin.
executive committee
Manufuture Daimler AG Heinrich Flegel (chairman)
ECTP (European Construction tech- Advanced Composite group - technical Ebby Shahidi - Co-leader of the Working group on Compo-
nology Platform) director sites within the Focus Area on Materials
119
120

FEMS (Federation of European Ma- Rio Tinto Alcan, Engineered Products, T&I Dr Hugh M. Dunlop, senior scientist, innovation programs
terials Societies) - Secretary - CRV
FEMS (Federation of European Ma- National Centre for Metallurgical Research Prof. Juan J. de Damborenea
terials Societies) - Executive officer (CENIM), Madrid

Photonics21 TRUMPF GmbH + Co.; KG Johann-Maus- Dr. Thomas Rettich, Research Coordination
Strasse 2 71254 Ditzingen
Germany
TPWind European Wind Energy Association Athanasia Arapogianni, research officer
EWEA - the European Wind Energy Association asbl/vzw
Nanomedicine CEA (Commissariat à l'Energie Atomique) Patrick Boisseau - chair of the nano-diagnostics working
group within the ETP
Research Funding Tekes, Finnish Funding Agency for Tech- Ms Sisko Sipilä chief technology adviser
nology and Innovation
Research European Spalation Source (ESS) Colin Carlile
FEMS (Federation of European Ma- Fraunhofer Institute for Nondestructive Prof. Ehrenfried Zschech
terials Societies) - Vice-President of Testing, Dresden
the executive committee

ECTP (European Construction Tech- Università Politecnica delle Marche Gian Marco Revel - Co-leader of the ECTP Focus Area on
nology Platform) Materials

ACARE: Advisory Council for Aero- ASD Mr Romain Muller (manufacturing industry contact)
nautics Research in Europe
Table 11: List of interviewed bank, private equity & venture capital investment specialists
Name of the company Name of the expert Sector

Intesa Sanpaolo, International Regulatory and Alessandra Perrazzelli Cross - sector


Antitrust Affairs
Polish Investment Fund Wojciech Szapiel Cross - sector
JKIC -JOERG KREISEL International Consultant Joerg Kreisel Cross - sector
Incitia Ventures Jens Petter Falck Software / ICT Services, Electronics /Semiconductors, Life Sci-
ence, Energy / Cleantech / Industrial
Beheer Flevoland Participaties BV René Krijger ICT, Life Sciences, Production

Zouk Capital LLP Justin Mighell Cleantech


Octadim GmbH Mr Harald Fichtl Chemical - Materials, Energy, Environment
Industrial Products, Other
WHEB Partners Dr. Aaron Small Cleanteach, Software, Hardware, Energy Sensors, Chemicals
Gimv NV Eline Talboom Cleantech, Life sciences
NBGI Ventures James Wong, Medtech, Life sciences
NREL Process Technology and Advanced Concepts Dr. David Ginley Nanotechnology and nanomaterials; transition metal oxides;
organic electronics;
Baltcap Martin Kodar Wide range
AB Chalmersinvest Ingvar Andersson Transportation; Cleantech; Chemicals and Materials; Energy and
Environment; Life Sciences
Global Life Science Ventures Dr. Hans A. Küpper Life Science
Medtech
121
European Commission

EUR 25027 EN - Technology and market perspective for future Value Added Materials
Final Report from Oxford Research AS

Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union

2012 — 124 pp. — 21 x 29,7 cm

ISBN 978-92-79-22003-6
doi 10.2777/9520
How to obtain EU publications
Free publications:
• via EU Bookshop (http://bookshop.europa.eu);
• at the European Union’s representations or delegations. You can obtain their contact details
on the Internet (http://ec.europa.eu) or by sending a fax to +352 2929-42758.

Priced publications:
• via EU Bookshop (http://bookshop.europa.eu).

Priced subscriptions (e.g. annual series of the Official Journal of the European Union
and reports of cases before the Court of Justice of the European Union):
• via one of the sales agents of the Publications Office of the European Union
(http://publications.europa.eu/others/agents/index_en.htm).
KI-NA-25-027-EN-C
Our society and in particular, the modern industrial
economy are profoundly influenced by new advanced
materials and technologies, which will play a major role
in determining our future well-being.
In the past, the traditional starting point in the develop-
ment of new materials has been mainly influenced by
their availability. Nowadays this is increasingly deter-
mined by their expected end uses and required in-ser-
vice performance. The realization of materials by design
benefits from recent progress in nanotechnology, con-
verging technologies and modelling.
The aim of this study is to provide an overview and fu-
ture perspective of the commercial market possibilities
for value-added and value-adding materials and to set
out the various technical and economic scenarios linked
to their potential development and use. A major novelty
is the sources and individuals consulted, which comprise
as far as possible, those coming both from the materi-
als fields and the financial sector, including investors and
investment advisors that deal with venture capital and
private equity investments.
The study is intended to be for the benefit of all stake-
holders in the field of new materials.

Studies & reports