Quaternary International xxx (2016) 1e10

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Quaternary International
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/quaint

Using the NDVI to identify variations in, and responses of, vegetation
to climate change on the Tibetan Plateau from 1982 to 2012
Guojin Pang a, Xuejia Wang b, *, Meixue Yang b
a
Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing of Gansu Province, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou,
Gansu 730000, China
b
State Key Laboratory of Cryosphere Science, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, Gansu
730000, China

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: We used the third generation Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies normalized difference
Available online xxx vegetation index (NDVI) and climate data (temperature and precipitation) to examine recent (1982
e2012) spatial and temporal variations in vegetation, and relationships between climate and vegeta-
Keywords: tion for both the growing period and for different seasons, on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Across the
Tibetan Plateau whole plateau, trends calculated by linear regression showed that as temperature and precipitation
Normalized difference vegetation index
increased, the growing season (MayeSeptember) NDVI values increased at rate of 0.002 decade
1
(NDVI)
(p ¼ 0.14) from 1982 to 2012. The ensemble empirical mode decomposition estimation method showed
Change in NDVI
Vegetation types
that the rates of increase in the NDVI gradually intensified until the end of the 1990s, and then
Temperature decreased slightly in the following years. The autumn NDVI increased at a rate of 0.005 decade
1
Precipitation (p ¼ 0.04) and was a major contributor to the growing season NDVI. The NDVI and temperature were
positively correlated at seasonal and monthly timescales during the growing season. The responses of
vegetation growth to seasonal and monthly changes in precipitation, however, were complex. The NDVI
trends showed obvious spatial heterogeneity and coincided well with regional and seasonal changes in
climate. The growing season NDVI increased in 55% of the area of the TP. On a seasonal basis, the largest
increase in the NDVI occurred in autumn and affected more than 61% of the TP, while the smallest
increase in the NDVI occurred in spring, and affected over 41% of the area. Moreover, there were
seasonal and spatial variations in the responses of different vegetation types to temperature and
precipitation.
© 2016 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction
The dynamic thermal effects generated by the unique and
complex topography of the Tibetan Plateau (TP), also known as
Earth's Third Pole, have a profound impact on regional and global
weather and climate (Wu et al., 2012; Yao et al., 2012). In recent
decades, the TP has experienced extraordinary changes because of
climate warming (Liu and Chen, 2000; Guo and Wang, 2011; Yang
et al., 2014; Wang et al., 2014a, 2014b). The warming of the TP
has occurred earlier and has been stronger than that experienced
elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere and in other zones at the
* Corresponding author.
E-mail address: xjwang@lzb.ac.cn (X. Wang).
same latitude over the same period. The TP is therefore considered
susceptible to global climate change (Liu and Chen, 2000). In
addition, changes in climatic variables such as temperature and
precipitation have induced glacier retreat (Yao et al., 2012),
permafrost degradation (Yang et al., 2010), and changes in hydro-
logical processes (Lan et al., 2010) and components of terrestrial
ecosystems, such as soil carbon and vegetation (Cui and Graf, 2009;
Gao et al., 2010; Yu et al., 2010; Chen et al., 2013).
The vegetation of the TP is diverse, and the main vegetation
types on a southeast to northwest gradient across the plateau
include forest, shrub, meadow, grass, and desert vegetation. A
number of major river systems, such as the Yangtze, Yellow, Indus,
Mekong, and Ganges rivers, have their headwaters in the TP.
Vegetation such as meadow and alpine grassland therefore plays an

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2016.08.038
1040-6182/© 2016 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.

Please cite this article in press as: Pang, G., et al., Using the NDVI to identify variations in, and responses of, vegetation to climate change on the
Tibetan Plateau from 1982 to 2012, Quaternary International (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2016.08.038
2 G. Pang et al. / Quaternary International xxx (2016) 1e10
important ecological role in soil and water conservation. Changes in
vegetation on the TP will have noticeable effects on terrestrial
carbon cycling, as the length of the vegetation growing season,
spring phenology, and degradation all strongly influence carbon
uptake by vegetation (Fang et al., 2007; Piao et al., 2009; Jeong et al.,
2011; Barichivich et al., 2012). Furthermore, variations in vegetation
may provide feedback to regional climate by altering landeatmo-
sphere exchanges of energy and water (Hua et al., 2008; Shen et al.,
2015). Therefore, studies on the impacts of climate on vegetation on
the TP are needed to improve our understanding of sustainable
management of grassland resources, carbon cycling in terrestrial
ecosystems, and variations in vegetation feedback to climate on the
TP.
Climate has an inevitable impact on the growing environment
and on the condition of vegetation (Parmesan and Yohe, 2003; Xu
et al., 2013; Gao et al., 2014). Many recent studies have examined
the impacts of climate change on vegetation (Pettorelli et al., 2005;
Piao et al., 2006a; Chen et al., 2013; Vicente-Serrano et al., 2013).
Climate warming has led to significant changes in global vegetation
cover, and vegetation activity in the Northern Hemisphere mid-
and high-latitudes has intensified (Xu et al., 2013). Vegetation ac-
tivity also shows positive trends over most of China, mainly because
the growing season has been either advanced or delayed by global
warming (Piao et al., 2006a; Peng et al., 2011). There was extensive
degradation of grassland on the TP from 1950 to 2000, with most of
the severely degraded grassland confined to the headwater areas of
the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers (Cui and Graf, 2009). The normalized
difference vegetation index (NDVI) has many merits, such as the
simplicity of its algorithm and its ability to roughly differentiate
vegetated areas from other land cover types; it is also more effec-
tive at identifying green vegetation than are other methods that
rely on a single band (Leprieur et al., 1994; Chuai et al., 2013). The
NDVI is commonly used to monitor changes in vegetation and land
cover, and to investigate the responses of vegetation to regional and
global climate change (e.g., Piao et al., 2006a; Yu et al., 2010; Shen
et al., 2014, 2015; Xu et al., 2015). Changes in vegetation on the TP
based on the NDVI during the 1980s and 1990s have been widely
documented. For example, the growing season NDVI of grassland
vegetation cover gradually increased from 1982 to 1999 (Yang and
Piao, 2006). The NDVI time series in the Lhasa area of the TP
demonstrated a positive trend from 1985 to 1999 (Chu et al., 2007).
The regional average NDVI in July at altitudes exceeding 3000 m on
the TP showed an overall increasing trend from 1982 to 2001 (Hua
et al., 2008). The growing season NDVI showed a tendency to in-
crease on the TP from 1982 to 2010 (Shen et al., 2015).
Despite the increasing number of studies that have used the
NDVI to assess vegetation on the TP, several questions remain
unanswered. Spatial and temporal variations in vegetation indi-
cated by the NDVI and vegetation responses to climate change on
the TP at different timescales in recent decades need to be clarified.
Other than studies that involved one vegetation biome (Yang and
Piao, 2006), most previous studies have not examined whether
the changes in vegetation growth differed among different vege-
tation types/biomes. Moreover, while some of these studies have
discussed the relationships between interannual variations in
vegetation and climate variables at an annual timescale (Chu et al.,
2007), other time-scales, such as the growing season and seasonal
timescales, should be considered because of vegetation phonolog-
ical characteristics and seasonal changes in climate. It is widely
believed that precipitation has a significant influence on the
vegetation in this region (Guo and Xie, 2006; Ding et al., 2007; Zhu
et al., 2011); however, spatial and temporal variations in precipi-
tation and temperature are disproportionate. Furthermore, the
impacts of temperature and precipitation on vegetation are equally
important, so it is vital to understand their respective roles in
Please cite this article in press as: Pang, G., et al., Using the NDVI to identify variations in, and responses of, vegetation to climate change on the
Tibetan Plateau from 1982 to 2012, Quaternary International (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2016.08.038
vegetation growth against a backdrop of climate warming. In this
study, therefore, we use NDVI data to explore spatial and temporal
variations in vegetation across different seasons on the TP from
1982 to 2012. We then combine temperature and precipitation data
to examine the responses of vegetation, particularly different
vegetation types, to climate change at different timescales.
2. Data and methods
2.1. NDVI data
We use the third-generation normalized difference vegetation
index (NDVI3g) from the most recent version (January
1982eDecember 2012) of the Global Inventory Modeling and
Mapping Studies (GIMMS) generated by the Advanced Very High
Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) sensor (Tucker et al., 2005). The
NDVI3g data are produced in a geographical latitude/longitude
projection with a spatial resolution of 1/12 per pixel and a tem-
poral interval of 15 days, and has been subjected to radiometric
calibration, atmospheric correction, cloud screening, and solar
zenith angle correction to remove effects not associated with var-
iations in vegetation. The NDVI3g data were generated to increase
the data reliability for the northern parts of the world where the
growing season is short (Bhatt et al., 2010; Zhu et al., 2013). We first
preprocessed the NDVI3g data using Maximum-Value Composites
(MVCs) to generate monthly values of the NDVI. This method
removes partial interference from clouds, atmosphere, and the
solar altitude (Holben, 1986), and is formulated as
NDVIi ¼ max(NDVIi1, NDVIi2), where NDVIi is the NDVI value of the ith
month, and NDVIi1 and NDVIi2 are the NDVI values of the first and
second halves of the month, respectively. To eliminate the effects of
soil (over deserts and sparsely vegetated grids), snow, and water
bodies, the pixels with monthly mean NDVI values less than 0.1
from May to September over the 31-year period were not consid-
ered. In the study, we defined the growing season as MayeSep-
tember (Shen et al., 2015), when the majority of vegetation is green
and the NDVI values are less influenced by snow cover. To obtain a
better understanding of the seasonal contributions, we divided the
growing season into three seasons: spring, summer, and autumn.
The spring NDVI was the monthly NDVI for May; the summer NDVI
was the combined average monthly NDVI for June, July and August;
and the autumn NDVI was the NDVI for September (Yang and Piao,
2006).
2.2. Vegetation type data
The spatial distribution of vegetation was obtained from a
digitized vegetation map of China at a scale of 1:1,000,000
(Editorial Board of Vegetation Map of China, 2001). We clipped the
vegetation of the TP from the vegetation map of China, and then,
based on the classifications, merged similar land cover types into
one category. For example, we merged ‘needle-leaved deciduous
forest’ and ‘needle-leaved evergreen forest’ into ‘needle-leaved
forest’. From this, we obtained an approximate distribution of the
six main vegetation types on the TP (Fig. 1). The main vegetation
zones of the TP include, from southeast to northwest, needle-
leaved forest (NLF), broad-leaved forest (BLF), shrubland,
meadow, grassland, and alpine vegetation. Grassland dominates,
and the alpine grassland of the TP is one of the most important
pastoral areas in China.
2.3. Temperature and precipitation data
Climate change on the TP is represented by the newly released
gridded daily temperature and precipitation CN05.1 observation
 G. Pang et al. / Quaternary International xxx (2016) 1e10 3

Fig. 1. Location of the Tibetan Plateau within China and the main vegetation types on the plateau. NLF and BLF represent needle-leaved forest and broad-leaved forest, respectively.

dataset (0.25  0.25 ) (Wu and Gao, 2013). The dataset was pro-
duced from data collected at more than 2400 meteorological
observation stations in China using the anomaly approach inter-
polation method. It has been extensively applied to validate
regional climate simulations and to support studies of climate
change (e.g., Gao et al., 2012; Wang et al., 2014c, 2016). For
analytical purposes, monthly values were calculated from daily
temperature and precipitation data.
2.4. Trend estimation
Two different methods were used to estimate trends. The
commonly used least squares linear trend fitting method was used
to estimate trends in the NDVI, temperature, precipitation, and
accumulated precipitation over the TP from growing season and
seasonal data for 1982e2012. We also used the recently developed
ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method to esti-
mate trends in the NDVI, temperature, and precipitation over the TP
from growing season and seasonal data for 1982e2012. The EEMD
represents a substantial improvement in the original empirical
mode decomposition (EMD) method (Wu and Huang, 2009), and is
an adaptive and temporally local time series analysis method
designed for analyzing nonlinear and nonstationary data. It sieves
an ensemble of white-noise-added signal (data) and treats only the
persistent part (component of the signal) that survives the aver-
aging process as the final true and more physical meaningful result.
It is therefore an adaptive filter. The main computation steps are as
follows: (1) a white noise series is added to the target data; (2) the

Please cite this article in press as: Pang, G., et al., Using the NDVI to identify variations in, and responses of, vegetation to climate change on the
Tibetan Plateau from 1982 to 2012, Quaternary International (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2016.08.038
4 G. Pang et al. / Quaternary International xxx (2016) 1e10
data with the added white noise are decomposed into intrinsic
mode functions (IMFs); (3) steps 1 and 2 are repeated again and
again, but with different white noise series each time; and (4) the
(ensemble) means of the corresponding IMFs of the de-
compositions are obtained as the final result (Wu and Huang,
2009).
2.5. Changes in the vegetation NDVI in response to climate change
To further explore the climatic factors that drive the changes in
vegetation indicated by the NDVI, we calculated Pearson's corre-
lation coefficients between the growing season and the seasonal
NDVI and concurrent temperatures and precipitation. Two-tailed p-
values were used to test the significance of these correlations.
3. Results and discussion
3.1. Interannual variations in the NDVI at the plateau scale and its
response to climate change
Variations in the growing season temperature, precipitation,
and NDVI on the TP from 1982 to 2012 are shown in Fig. 2. Both
trend estimation methods show a marked increasing trend in the
growing season temperature on the TP over the past 31 years, with
an average linear warming rate of 0.44  C decade
1 (p < 0.01).
Previous studies have reported that climate warming on the TP
during 1960e2009 was about twice the global average (Liu and
Chen, 2000; Yang et al., 2014). Since 1982, the growing season
Fig. 2. Interannual variations in temperature, precipitation, and the NDVI on the
growing season timescales for 1982e2012 on the TP. The linear trend calculated by
linear regression (red and pink dashed lines) and the nonlinear trend calculated by
EEMD (blue solid line) are also plotted against temperature, precipitation, and the
NDVI for the whole period. In the EEMD calculation, noise of 0.4 was added to the
standard deviation, and the ensemble number was 200. (For interpretation of the
references to color in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this
article.)
Please cite this article in press as: Pang, G., et al., Using the NDVI to identify variations in, and responses of, vegetation to climate change on the
Tibetan Plateau from 1982 to 2012, Quaternary International (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2016.08.038
precipitation has also increased at a rate of 7.34 mm decade
1
(p ¼ 0.07). The EEMD method estimated a gentle initial increase in
precipitation, followed by a marked increase. As temperature and
precipitation increased on the interannual time-scale, the growing
season NDVI at the plateau scale increased at a rate of 0.002
decade
1 (R2 ¼ 0.07, p ¼ 0.14). The results indicate that the vege-
tation on the TP has been turning green over the past 31 years. This
is consistent with the result of second generation GIMMS NDVI
based-study, which shows a positive trend for 1982e2010 (Shen
et al., 2015). The trend estimated by the EEMD shows that the
growing-season mean NDVI gradually increased from 1982 until
the end of the 1990s and reached a maximum in approximately
1997, after which point it decreased slightly. The linear trend esti-
mation method, however, shows that the NDVI increased rapidly
from 1982 to 1997 at a rate of 0.008 decade
1 (R2 ¼ 0.26, p ¼ 0.04),
and then decreased slowly from 1998 to 2012 at a rate of 0.004
decade
1 (R2 ¼ 0.06, p ¼ 0.37). It has been reported that the
vegetation greening trend over the TP occurred mainly in the 1980s
and 1990s (Yang and Piao, 2006; Chen et al., 2014; Shen et al., 2015).
Similarly, the second generation GIMMS NDVI data shows a nega-
tive trend during the growing season in the 2000s (Shen et al.,
2015). These results are consistent with previous studies carried
out in Eurasia that reported significant increases in vegetation
growth during the 1980s and 1990s, but marginal decreases in the
growing season NDVI from 1997 to 2006 (Zhou et al., 2001; Piao
et al., 2011).
To further examine the relationship between the NDVI and cli-
matic variables during the growing season, we used Pearson cor-
relation coefficients to examine the relationships between the
NDVI and the two climatic variables (temperature and precipita-
tion), at the plateau scale for the period from 1982 to 2012 (Table 1).
The average growing season NDVI for the TP was significantly
correlated with temperature (RT ¼ 0.40, p ¼ 0.03), but was only
very weakly correlated with precipitation (RP ¼
0.04, p ¼ 0.70).
These results suggest that the response of vegetation to tempera-
ture in high-cold regions is likely to be more intense under climate
warming. In addition, the reduction in vegetation in recent years
may be attributable to permafrost degradation caused by climate
warming, as permafrost is highly sensitive to temperature change.
Yang et al. (2010) provided a detailed report of the marked
warming, thawing, thinning, and degradation of permafrost across
the TP in recent decades. As the active layer of the permafrost be-
comes thicker, vegetation cover in the alpine cold meadows may
decrease significantly (Wang et al., 2006). Therefore, permafrost
degradation induced by climate warming will be accompanied by
progressive drying of the surface and a decrease in vegetation
cover. The reduction in vegetation on the TP may also be related to
an increase in anthropogenic activity (Yang et al., 2010; Chen et al.,
2013, 2014); however, this possibility is beyond the scope of the
present study.
Table 1
Correlation coefficients between the NDVI and temperature (RT) and precipitation
(RP) for the growing season and different seasons on the TP for 1982e2012. The
values in brackets refer to the p values of correlation coefficients.
Growing season Spring Summer Autumn
RT 0.40 (0.03) 0.16 (0.40) 0.32 (0.08) 0.57 (0.001)
RP
0.04 (0.70) 0.05 (0.81)
0.29 (0.12)
0.10 (0.63)
The change in the growing season NDVI is the average of the
changes in the NDVI for spring, summer, and autumn. To obtain an
insight into the seasonal contributions, the interannual variations
 G. Pang et al. / Quaternary International xxx (2016) 1e10
in temperature, precipitation, and the NDVI during spring, summer,
and autumn on the TP from 1982 to 2012 are presented in Fig. 3.
Temperature increased significantly, with linear increasing rates of
0.45, 0.42, and 0.50  C decade
1 in spring, summer, and autumn,
respectively. Precipitation showed a significant increasing trend in
spring (R2 ¼ 0.32, p < 0.05), and a slight increasing trend in summer
(R2 ¼ 0.08, p ¼ 0.12), but a modest decreasing trend in autumn
(R2 ¼ 0.005, p ¼ 0.70). The NDVI showed a tendency to increase in
all three seasons, but increased most in autumn, for which a change
of 0.005 decade
1 (R2 ¼ 0.14, p ¼ 0.04) was observed from 1982 to
2012. It is should be noted that the EEMD method also estimated a
gradually increasing trend in the autumn NDVI. Overall, variations
in the autumn NDVI make a considerable contribution to the
growing season NDVI.
Correlation analysis of the NDVI and climate variables for each
season showed that there were weak positive correlations between
the NDVI and temperature and precipitation in spring (Table 1).
This means that spring vegetation growth was affected somewhat
by the spring temperature and reduced sunshine hours (You et al.,
2010; Wang et al., 2015) that mainly resulted from the significant
increase in precipitation. The NDVI was significantly and positively
correlated with temperature in summer (RT ¼ 0.32, p < 0.1) and
autumn (RT ¼ 0.57, p ¼ 0.001), but had only a weak negative cor-
relation with precipitation. This suggests that increases in tem-
perature in summer and autumn could result in increased
photosynthesis and could therefore facilitate vegetation growth.
The correlation between the summer temperature and vegetation
growth was stronger than that between the spring temperature
and vegetation growth, which indicates that the summer temper-
ature has more effect on vegetation growth than does the spring
temperature. Furthermore, large temperature increases in autumn
prolonged the vegetation growing period, resulting in an increase
in the autumn NDVI. Precipitation in summer, however, may have
some influence on vegetation growth, as insufficient precipitation
combined with concurrent increases in temperature during the
season could give rise to water stress on vegetation growth (Zhong
et al., 2010; Chuai et al., 2013). The insignificant negative correla-
tion between the NDVI and precipitation in autumn may be evi-
dence that the increased precipitation in spring and summer was
Fig. 3. Same as Fig. 2, but for spring, summer, and autumn.
Please cite this article in press as: Pang, G., et al., Using the NDVI to identify variations in, and responses of, vegetation to climate change on the
Tibetan Plateau from 1982 to 2012, Quaternary International (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2016.08.038
5
stored in soils and was still available for autumn vegetation growth
(Piao et al., 2003).
3.2. Monthly variations in the NDVI at the plateau scale and its
response to climate variables
Monthly trends and monthly mean values of temperature,
precipitation, accumulated precipitation, and the NDVI during the
growing season are shown in Fig. 4. There was a significant
increasing trend in temperature in all months, with the largest
increase occurring in September (0.50  C decade
1). There were
increasing trends in precipitation in most months. The increases in
precipitation during the growing season were relatively large, but
only the increase in May was significant (p < 0.05). Precipitation
shows a weak decreasing trend in September. Likewise, there was a
significant increasing trend in precipitation accumulation from
May to September.
The contribution of vegetation activity in different months to
the growing season vegetation growth can be attributed mostly to
the magnitude of, and variations in, the monthly mean NDVI (Piao
et al., 2003). Changes in the mean monthly NDVI are consistent
with those of temperature and precipitation. The mean monthly
NDVI showed a maximum in August (0.34) and was low in May
because of the low temperatures and precipitation. The NDVI
showed an increasing trend in all months during the growing
season. Of note, although the monthly mean temperature, precip-
itation, and NDVI were high and the NDVI displayed an increasing
trend, the increasing trend in the NDVI in August was the smallest
of the months during the growing season. This shows that there has
been little variation in vegetation during this month over the last 31
years. The increasing trend in the NDVI in September was signifi-
cant (0.005 decade
1), which is consistent with the results reported
by Bao et al. (2015) for a forest in Mongolia.
Fig. 5 shows correlations between the monthly mean NDVI and
climate variables, including temperature, precipitation, and accu-
mulated precipitation. The NDVI and temperature were positively
correlated in all months, and the correlations were significant in
June, July, and September, but not in May and August of the growing
season. The large increases in the NDVI observed in September can
6 G. Pang et al. / Quaternary International xxx (2016) 1e10
Fig. 4. Monthly trends (bar) and monthly mean values of temperature, precipitation, accumulated precipitation, and the NDVI during the growing season for 1982e2012. Stars
indicate that the trend is statistically significant at the 0.05 level.
be mainly ascribed to increased temperatures at the end of the
growing season (Zhou et al., 2001; Nemani et al., 2003; Bao et al.,
2015). The relationships between the NDVI and precipitation, and
the NDVI and accumulated precipitation were negative and posi-
tive, respectively, which suggests that the responses of monthly
vegetation growth to precipitation are more complex than the re-
sponses to temperature. Glaciers, snow cover, and frozen ground
are widely distributed over the TP. Precipitation and snowfall in
autumn and winter are well preserved in soil because of soil
freezing (Yang et al., 2003), meaning that there is sufficient water in
the soil to support vegetation growth at the beginning of the
growing season. However, the negative correlations between the
NDVI and precipitation in the growing season suggest that the
Fig. 5. Correlations between the monthly mean NDVI and each of monthly tempera-
ture (T), precipitation (P), and accumulated precipitation (AP) during the growing
season for 1982e2012. The shaded area indicates correlations that are statistically
insignificant at the 0.05 level.
Please cite this article in press as: Pang, G., et al., Using the NDVI to identify variations in, and responses of, vegetation to climate change on the
Tibetan Plateau from 1982 to 2012, Quaternary International (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2016.08.038
reductions in temperature and solar radiation caused by excessive
precipitation may be unfavorable for vegetation growth (Piao et al.,
2006b).
3.3. Spatial and temporal patterns in NDVI trends and climate
drivers
The spatial patterns of changes in the growing season NDVI
were heterogeneous (Fig. 6). From 1982 to 2012, the growing sea-
son NDVI increased over most of the TP, especially in the southeast,
northeast, and hinterland of the TP, but decreased in some areas of
the eastern, southern, and western TP (Fig. 6a and b). These results
are consistent with the study of Shen et al. (2015). Overall, the
growing season NDVI increased over 55% of the TP, with significant
(p < 0.05) increases over 18%. To permit examination of the re-
sponses of vegetation to climate drivers, spatial trends in the
growing season temperature and precipitation on the TP are shown
in Fig. 6c and d. Most of the TP has experienced significant tem-
perature increases over the past 31 years. Warming has been most
dramatic in the Qaidam Basin and the Qilian Mountains in the
northeast of the TP. Precipitation has increased in northeast-
esouthwest oriented strips and in the northwest of the TP, but has
decreased in the eastern and southeastern TP. The influence of
climate drivers on vegetation growth varied in different regions.
Generally, the areas with negative NDVI trends coincide well with
the areas with decreased trends in precipitation under uniform
increases in temperature and vice versa. It is noteworthy that
although the growing season NDVI was negatively correlated with
precipitation at the plateau scale, precipitation still played a sig-
nificant role in vegetation growth in some specific areas.
On a seasonal basis, the spring NDVI decreased across about
41% of the TP, particularly in the southwestern and northeastern
TP, but increased significantly in the southeastern TP from 1982 to
2012 (Fig. 6e and f). The areas with significant (p < 0.05) increasing
and decreasing NDVI trends each accounted for about 12% of the
TP. There was a significant increasing trend in precipitation in the
southern TP (Fig. 6h). Increased spring precipitation results in
 G. Pang et al. / Quaternary International xxx (2016) 1e10 7

Fig. 6. Spatial distribution of trends in the NDVI (decade
1), temperature ( C decade
1), and precipitation (mm decade
1) over the period from 1982 to 2012. (a)e(d) show the
growing season NDVI trend, significance of the NDVI trend, temperature trend, and precipitation trend, respectively. (e)e(h), (i)e(l), and (m)e(p) are same as (a)e(d), but for spring,
summer, and autumn, respectively. The NDVI trends are termed significant for pixels in which p < 0.05. Black dots for temperature and precipitation represent trends that are
statistically significant at the 0.05 level.

reduced spring sunshine hours (You et al., 2010), with subsequent
decreases in the corresponding NDVI. The spatial trends in the
NDVI, temperature, and precipitation during summer were similar
to those of the growing season (Fig. 6iel). The NDVI increased over
53% of the TP, and significantly (p < 0.05) increased over 13%.
Among the three seasons, the increasing NDVI trend in autumn
covered the largest area (about 61%) during the period from 1982
to 2012 (Fig. 6m). The areas with significant (p < 0.05) increases
and decreases in NDVI trends occupied 13% and 2% of the TP,
respectively (Fig. 6n). The autumn temperature significantly
increased over the whole TP from 1982 to 2012, especially in the
northeastern and northwestern TP. Precipitation during this sea-
son increased significantly in the northeastern and northwestern
TP, but decreased in the southeastern TP. Therefore, in the south-
eastern TP, where precipitation does not limit plant growth, the
increased temperature could be beneficial for plant growth. The
increased spring and summer precipitation in the southern TP may
be stored in soils and may remain available for autumn vegetation
growth in these areas. The decrease in the autumn NDVI in the
western TP may have been related to the increased autumn tem-
perature in these regions that resulted in increased evapotrans-
piration and reduced soil moisture (Piao et al., 2011; Yang et al.,
2014).
3.4. Changes in the NDVI for different vegetation types and their
responses to climate
The spatial distribution of the NDVI trends varied across
different areas and seasons (Fig. 6) because of discrepancies in the
responses of vegetation types to climatic zones. The trends in the
growing season and seasonal NDVI, temperature, and precipitation
for six kinds of vegetation and the correlation coefficients between
the NDVI and temperature and precipitation in the same periods
are listed in Table 2. With the exception of BLF, the growing season
NDVI increased for all vegetation types from 1982 to 2012. There
were significant increasing trends for grassland, meadow, and
alpine vegetation (p < 0.05). Growing season temperatures signif-
icantly increased from 1982 to 2012 for all vegetation types, and,
with the exception of BLF, were positively associated with the
growing season NDVI for all vegetation types. Moreover, the cor-
relations were significant for shrubland, meadow, and alpine
vegetation. This suggests that the growing season temperature
increases have a strong influence on the growth of these vegetation
types. The growing season precipitation increased for most vege-
tation types except NLF and BLF; the NDVI was negatively related to
some vegetation types in concurrent periods, particularly BLF, and
was significantly (p < 0.1) and positively related to grassland. These

Please cite this article in press as: Pang, G., et al., Using the NDVI to identify variations in, and responses of, vegetation to climate change on the
Tibetan Plateau from 1982 to 2012, Quaternary International (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2016.08.038
8 G. Pang et al. / Quaternary International xxx (2016) 1e10

results indicate that the decreases in the growing season precipi- autumn precipitation and NDVI were negatively correlated, sug-
tation were not beneficial for vegetation growth and vice versa. gesting that decreases in precipitation are conducive to vegetation

Table 2
Trends in the growing season and seasonal NDVI (decade
1), temperature (Temp,  C decade
1), and precipitation (Preci, mm decade
1) over the entire period from 1982 to
2012. Correlation coefficients between the growing season and seasonal NDVI and temperature (RT) and precipitation (RP) in the needle-leaved forest (NLF), broad-leaved
forest (BLF), shrubland, grassland, meadow, and alpine vegetation over the period from 1982 to 2012.

Vegetation Linear trend from 1982 to 2012 Correlation coefficient

NDVI Temp Preci RT RP

Growing season NLF 0.002 0.34**
1.83 0.13
0.26

BLF
0.003 0.31**
3.34
0.02
0.33*
Shrubland 0.003 0.37** 0.61 0.31*
0.19
Grassland 0.002** 0.46** 14.59** 0.29 0.34*
Meadow 0.004** 0.45** 7.86 0.44** 0.03
Alpine vegetation 0.002** 0.45** 9.30** 0.45** 0.04
Spring NLF 0.006 0.29** 5.72** 0.26 0.03
BLF 0.009 0.29** 5.57** 0.18
0.15
Shrubland 0.006 0.32** 4.60** 0.32* 0.09
Grassland
0.0001 0.44** 3.17**
0.31*
0.26
Meadow 0.001 0.38** 3.74** 0.22
0.15
Alpine vegetation
0.0001 0.44** 2.89** 0.09
0.25
Summer NLF
0.003 0.30** 0.55
0.04
0.43**
BLF
0.009 0.27**
1.57
0.22
0.38**
Shrubland 0.001 0.34** 2.69 0.19
0.38**
Grassland 0.003** 0.44** 11.16** 0.26 0.17
Meadow 0.004 0.44** 6.75 0.40**
0.22
Alpine vegetation 0.002 0.43** 7.20* 0.34*
0.13
Autumn NLF 0.009 0.48**
8.10** 0.33*
0.45**
BLF 0.005 0.44**
7.34** 0.24
0.40**
Shrubland 0.007 0.51**
6.67** 0.38**
0.39**
Grassland 0.004** 0.50** 0.91 0.64**
0.05
Meadow 0.007** 0.55**
2.62 0.46**
0.02
Alpine vegetation 0.006** 0.49**
0.79 0.59**
0.31*

* and ** represent p < 0.1 and p < 0.05 (statistical significance of linear regression and Pearson correlation), respectively.

For most vegetation types, the spring NDVI increased (but not
significantly), and temperature and precipitation significantly
increased. There were positive trends in the summer NDVI for
shrubland, grassland (significant at the 0.05 level), meadow, and
alpine vegetation, but a relatively large negative trend for forests.
The temperatures of all vegetation types and precipitation for most
vegetation types increased in summer. There were increasing
trends in all the NDVI values for autumn from 1982 to 2012, and the
trends were significant at the 0.05 level for grassland, meadow, and
alpine vegetation. There were significant increases in the corre-
sponding temperatures, but precipitation mainly decreased. These
results are consistent with the results at the plateau scale (Figs. 3
and 6).
The spring NDVI and temperature were positively correlated for
most vegetation types, indicating that warming in spring could
intensify spring vegetation activity (i.e., advanced vegetation
greening) for most vegetation types (Piao et al., 2006c), but espe-
cially for shrubland. Nevertheless, daytime temperature increases
have an apparent negative effect on grassland, which is generally
distributed in arid and semi-arid areas of the TP (Table 2) (Shen
et al., 2016). The summer NDVI values for NLF, BLF, and shrubland
are affected by temperature and precipitation, partly because of the
drought stress induced by dramatic increases in temperature and
reductions, or inadequate increases, in precipitation. The significant
increase in the grassland NDVI during summer is possibly in con-
cert with the variations in temperature and precipitation. However,
temperature is the main control on meadow and alpine vegetation
in summer. The autumn NDVI and temperatures were significantly
and positively correlated for most vegetation types, indicating that
increases in the autumn temperature could strengthen vegetation
growth because of the lengthened growing season (Piao et al.,
2006c; Peng et al., 2011; Zhu et al., 2012). Furthermore, the
growth, especially for NFL, BLF, shrubland, and alpine vegetation in
autumn. Overall, the variations in specific vegetation types and
their responses to temperature and precipitation varied across
different seasons.
4. Conclusions
In this study, the latest version of GIMMS NDVI3g data for
January 1982 to December 2012 was used to investigate spatial and
temporal changes in vegetation on the TP. The data were linked to
observed monthly data of temperature and precipitation, to permit
identification of the responses of vegetation to climate variability
for both the growing period and different seasons.
There were apparent increasing trends in the growing season
mean temperature and precipitation over the period from 1982 to
2012. Against this background, the linear trend estimation method
indicated that the growing season NDVI at the plateau scale
increased at a rate of 0.002 decade
1. However, the EEMD trend
method showed that the growing season NDVI increased up until
the end of the 1990s, and then declined slightly. A significant
positive correlation between the growing season NDVI and tem-
perature suggests that the effect of temperature on vegetation
growth in the TP is likely to intensify as the temperature increases.
The seasonal mean temperatures for spring, summer, and
autumn increased significantly. Precipitation increased signifi-
cantly in spring, increased slightly in summer, but decreased
slightly in autumn. The seasonal mean NDVI increased in all three
seasons, but increased most in autumn, when it increased by 0.005
decade
1 from 1982 to 2012. At the plateau scale, the effects of
temperature and precipitation on the NDVI varied among the
different seasons and the different months of the growing season.
The NDVI was positively correlated with temperature at the

Please cite this article in press as: Pang, G., et al., Using the NDVI to identify variations in, and responses of, vegetation to climate change on the
Tibetan Plateau from 1982 to 2012, Quaternary International (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2016.08.038
 G. Pang et al. / Quaternary International xxx (2016) 1e10
seasonal and monthly scales during the growing season. However,
the effect of changes in seasonal and monthly precipitation on
vegetation growth is probably more complex than that of changes
in temperature.
The NDVI trends showed remarkable spatial heterogeneity, and
generally coincided well with regional and seasonal variations in
temperature and precipitation. The growing season NDVI increased
over 55% of the TP, and increased significantly over 18% of the area
(p < 0.05) from 1982 to 2012. The increase in the NDVI was greatest
in autumn, when it increased over 61% of the TP (with a significant
increase over 15% of the area), followed by summer and spring,
when it increased over 53% (with a significant increase of 13%) and
41% (with a significant increase of 12%) of the TP, respectively.
The vegetation variations and responses to temperature and
precipitation differed across different vegetation types and seasons.
The NDVI for most vegetation types, especially for grassland,
meadow, and alpine vegetation, increased from 1982 to 2012.
Generally speaking, increased temperatures could result in an in-
crease in the NDVI for most vegetation types, but could also lead to
water stress for some vegetation types in some seasons, such as
grassland in spring and BLF in summer. The effects of changes in
precipitation on vegetation growth in different seasons are more
complex than those of changes in temperature. Precipitation and
temperature most likely exert a combined effect on the variations
in some specific vegetation types during the growing period and
across different seasons on the TP.
Acknowledgements
This work was supported by the Innovation Research Group of
NSFC (41121001), the Preferential Funding from Postdoctoral Sci-
entific Research Project of Gansu in 2014, the Foundation of State
Key Laboratory of Cryosphere Science (SKLCS-ZZ-2016), the
National Natural Science Foundation of China (41075007,
41601077), and the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) “Light of
West China” Program. We greatly appreciate suggestions from
anonymous referees for the improvement of our paper. Thanks also
to the editorial staff.
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