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Chapter-3
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Introduction:
As early as 1896, the Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius had predicted that human
activities would interfere with the way the sun interacts with the earth, resulting in global
warming and climate change. His prediction has become true and climate change is now
disrupting global environmental stability. The last few decades have seen many treaties,
conventions, and protocols for the cause of global environmental protection.
Energy use and supply is of fundamental importance to society and, with the possible
exception of agriculture and forestry, has made the greatest impact on the environment
of any human activity - a result of the large scale and pervasive nature of energy related
activities. Although energy and environment concerns were originally local in character -
for example, problems associated with extraction, transport or noxious emissions - they
have now widened to cover regional and global issues such as acid rain and the
greenhouse effect. Such problems have now become major political issues and the
subject of international debate and regulation. It is for this reason that there is a need for
a journal dedicated to energy and environment issues.
A major aim of Energy and Environment is to act as a forum for constructive and
professional debate between scientists and technologists, social scientists and economists
from academia, government and the energy industries on energy and environment issues
in both a national and international context. It is also the aim to include the informed and
environmentally concerned public and their organisations in the debate. Particular
attention is given to ways of resolving conflict in the energy and environment field.
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Objective:
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Effects on Human and Animal Health: Increased penetration of solar UV-B radiation is
likely to have high impact on human health with potential risks of eye diseases, skin
cancer and infectious diseases.
The ozone layer, therefore, is highly beneficial to plant and animal life on earth filtering
out the dangerous part of sun’s radiation and allowing only the beneficial part to reach
earth. Any disturbance or depletion of this layer would result in an increase of harmful
radiation reaching the earth’s surface leading to dangerous consequences.
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Global Warming:
Global warming is the current rise in the average temperature of Earth's oceans and
atmosphere and its projected continuation. The scientific consensus is that global
warming is occurring and was initiated by human activities, especially those that increase
concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, such as deforestation and burning
of fossil fuels. This finding is recognized by the national science academies of all the
major industrialized countries and is not rejected by any scientific body of national or
international standing.
Scientists directly measured the global surface temperature increase during the 20th
century at about 0.74°C (1.33°F). Potential future warming is projected using computer
models of the climate system and hypothetical amounts of greenhouse gas emissions for
possible future worlds, published in 2000. Actual emissions since 2000 have equaled or
exceeded the "A2 scenario", except for small dips during two global recessions.
According to the 2007 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),
the "best estimate" of future warming for the A2 scenario is 3.4°C (6.1°F) by 2100, with
a likely range from 2.0-5.4°C (3.6-9.7°F) .
An increase in global temperature will cause sea levels to rise and will change the amount
and pattern of precipitation, probably including expansion of subtropical deserts.
Warming is expected to be strongest in the Arctic and would be associated with
continuing retreat of glaciers, permafrost and sea ice. Other likely effects of the warming
include more frequent occurrence of extreme weather events including heat waves,
droughts and heavy rainfall events, species extinctions due to shifting temperature
regimes, and changes in agricultural yields. Warming and related changes will vary from
region to region around the globe, though the nature of these regional changes is
uncertain. In a 4°C world, the limits for human adaptation are likely to be exceeded in
many parts of the world, while the limits for adaptation for natural systems would largely
be exceeded throughout the world. Hence, the ecosystem services upon which human
livelihoods depend would not be preserved.
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Evidence for warming of the climate system includes observed increases in global
average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising
global average sea level. The most common measure of global warming is the trend in
globally averaged temperature near the Earth's surface. Expressed as a linear trend, this
temperature rose by 0.74 ± 0.18 °C over the period 1906–2005. The rate of warming over
the last half of that period was almost double that for the period as a whole
(0.13 ± 0.03 °C per decade, versus 0.07 °C ± 0.02 °C per decade). The urban heat island
effect is estimated to account for about 0.002 °C of warming per decade since 1900.
Temperatures in the lower troposphere have increased between 0.13 and 0.22 °C (0.22
and 0.4 °F) per decade since 1979, according to satellite temperature measurements.
Temperature is believed to have been relatively stable over the one or two thousand years
before 1850, with regionally varying fluctuations such as the Medieval Warm Period and
the Little Ice Age.
Recent estimates by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the
National Climatic Data Center show that 2005 and 2010 tied for the planet's warmest
year since reliable, widespread instrumental measurements became available in the late
19th century, exceeding 1998 by a few hundredths of a degree. Current estimates by the
Climatic Research Unit (CRU) show 2005 as the second warmest year, behind 1998 with
2003 and 2010 tied for third warmest year, however, ―the error estimate for individual
years … is at least ten times larger than the differences between these three years.‖. The
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) statement on the status of the global climate
in 2010 explains that, ―The 2010 nominal value of +0.53°C ranks just ahead of those of
2005 (+0.52°C) and 1998 (+0.51°C), although the differences between the three years are
not statistically significant…‖
Temperatures in 1998 were unusually warm because the strongest El Niño in the past
century occurred during that year.] Global temperature is subject to short-term
fluctuations that overlay long term trends and can temporarily mask them. The relative
stability in temperature from 2002 to 2009 is consistent with such an episode.
Temperature changes vary over the globe. Since 1979, land temperatures have increased
about twice as fast as ocean temperatures (0.25 °C per decade against 0.13 °C per
decade). Ocean temperatures increase more slowly than land temperatures because of the
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larger effective heat capacity of the oceans and because the ocean loses more heat by
evaporation.The Northern Hemisphere warms faster than the Southern Hemisphere
because it has more land and because it has extensive areas of seasonal snow and sea-ice
cover subject to ice-albedo feedback. Although more greenhouse gases are emitted in the
Northern than Southern Hemisphere this does not contribute to the difference in warming
because the major greenhouse gases persist long enough to mix between hemispheres.
The thermal inertia of the oceans and slow responses of other indirect effects mean that
climate can take centuries or longer to adjust to changes in forcing. Climate commitment
studies indicate that even if greenhouse gases were stabilized at 2000 levels, a further
warming of about 0.5 °C (0.9 °F) would still occur.
Before the Industrial Revolution, human activities released very few gases into the
atmosphere and all climate changes happened naturally. After the Industrial Revolution,
through fossil fuel combustion, changing agricultural practices and deforestation, the
natural composition of gases in the atmosphere is getting affected and climate and
environment began to alter significantly.
Over the last 100 years, it was found out that the earth is getting warmer and warmer,
unlike previous 8000 years when temperatures have been relatively constant. The present
temperature is 0.3 - 0.6 oC warmer than it was 100 years ago.
The key greenhouse gases (GHG) causing global warming is carbon dioxide. CFC's, even
though they exist in very small quantities, are significant contributors to global warming.
Carbon dioxide, one of the most prevalent greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, has two
major anthropogenic (human-caused) sources: the combustion of fossil fuels and changes
in land use. Net releases of carbon dioxide from these two sources are believed to be
contributing to the rapid rise in atmospheric concentrations since Industrial Revolution.
Because estimates indicate that approximately 80 percent of all anthropogenic carbon
dioxide emissions currently come from fossil fuel combustion, world energy use has
emerged at the center of the climate change debate.
The greenhouse effect is the process by which absorption and emission of infrared
radiation by gases in the atmosphere warm a planet's lower atmosphere and surface. It
was proposed by Joseph Fourier in 1824 and was first investigated quantitatively by
Svante Arrhenius in 1896.
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affect the radiation balance, but they are composed of liquid water or ice and so have
different effects on radiation from water vapor.
Human activity since the Industrial Revolution has increased the amount of greenhouse
gases in the atmosphere, leading to increased radiative forcing from CO2, methane,
tropospheric ozone, CFCs and nitrous oxide. The concentrations of CO2 and methane
have increased by 36% and 148% respectively since 1750. These levels are much higher
than at any time during the last 800,000 years, the period for which reliable data has been
extracted from ice cores. Less direct geological evidence indicates that CO2 values higher
than this were last seen about 20 million years ago. Fossil fuel burning has produced
about three-quarters of the increase in CO2 from human activity over the past 20 years.
The rest of this increase is caused mostly by changes in land-use, particularly
deforestation.
Over the last three decades of the 20th century, GDP per capita and population growth
were the main drivers of increases in greenhouse gas emissions. CO2 emissions are
continuing to rise due to the burning of fossil fuels and land-use change. Emissions can
be attributed to different regions. The two figures opposite show annual greenhouse gas
emissions for the year 2005, including land-use change. Attribution of emissions due to
land-use change is a controversial issue. For example, concentrating on more recent
changes in land-use (as the figures opposite do) is likely to favour those regions that have
deforested earlier, e.g., Europe.
The popular media and the public often confuse global warming with the ozone hole, i.e.,
the destruction of stratospheric ozone by chlorofluorocarbons. Although there are a few
areas of linkage, the relationship between the two is not strong. Reduced stratospheric
ozone has had a slight cooling influence on surface temperatures, while increased
tropospheric ozone has had a somewhat larger warming effect.
Global dimming, a gradual reduction in the amount of global direct irradiance at the
Earth's surface, has partially counteracted global warming from 1960 to the present. The
main cause of this dimming is particulates produced by volcanoes and human made
pollutants, which exerts a cooling effect by increasing the reflection of incoming sunlight.
The effects of the products of fossil fuel combustion—CO2 and aerosols—have largely
offset one another in recent decades, so that net warming has been due to the increase in
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In addition to their direct effect by scattering and absorbing solar radiation, particulates
have indirect effects on the radiation budget. Sulfates act as cloud condensation nuclei
and thus lead to clouds that have more and smaller cloud droplets. These clouds reflect
solar radiation more efficiently than clouds with fewer and larger droplets, known as the
Twomey effect. This effect also causes droplets to be of more uniform size, which reduces
growth of raindrops and makes the cloud more reflective to incoming sunlight, known as
the Albrecht effect. Indirect effects are most noticeable in marine strati form clouds, and
have very little radiative effect on convective clouds. Indirect effects of particulates
represent the largest uncertainty in radiative forcing.
Soot may cool or warm the surface, depending on whether it is airborne or deposited.
Atmospheric soot directly absorb solar radiation, which heats the atmosphere and cools
the surface. In isolated areas with high soot production, such as rural India, as much as
50% of surface warming due to greenhouse gases may be masked by atmospheric brown
clouds. When deposited, especially on glaciers or on ice in arctic regions, the lower
surface albedo can also directly heat the surface. The influences of particulates, including
black carbon, are most pronounced in the tropics and sub-tropics, particularly in Asia,
while the effects of greenhouse gases are dominant in the extratropics and southern
hemisphere.
Carbon dioxide is released to the atmosphere when solid waste, fossil fuels (oil, natural
gas, and coal), and wood and wood products are burned.
Methane is emitted during the production and transport of coal, natural gas, and oil.
Methane emissions also result from the decomposition of organic wastes in municipal
solid waste landfills, and the raising of livestock. Nitrous oxide is emitted during
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agricultural and industrial activities, as well as during combustion of solid waste and
fossil fuels.
Very powerful greenhouse gases that are not naturally occurring include
hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6),
which are generated in a variety of industrial processes.
Often, estimates of greenhouse gas emissions are presented in units of millions of metric
tons of carbon equivalents (MMTCE), which weights each gas by its Global Warming
Potential or GWP value.
Although there are a number of ways of measuring the strength of different greenhouse
gases in the atmosphere, the Global Warming Potential (GWP) is perhaps the most
useful.
GWPs measure the influence greenhouse gases have on the natural greenhouse effect,
including the ability of greenhouse gas molecules to absorb or trap heat and the length of
time, greenhouse gas molecules remain in the atmosphere before being removed or
broken down. In this way, the contribution that each greenhouse gas has towards global
warming can be assessed.
Each greenhouse gas differs in its ability to absorb heat in the atmosphere. HFCs and
PFCs are the most heat-absorbent. Methane traps over 21 times more heat per molecule
than carbon dioxide, and nitrous oxide absorbs 270 times more heat per molecule than
carbon dioxide. Conventionally, the GWP of carbon dioxide, measured across all time
horizons, is 1. The GWPs of other greenhouse gases are then measured relative to the
GWP of carbon dioxide. Thus GWP of methane is 21 while GWP of nitrous oxide is 270.
Other greenhouse gases have much higher GWPs than carbon dioxide, but because their
concentration in the atmosphere is much lower, carbon dioxide is still the most important
greenhouse gas, contributing about 60% to the enhancement of the greenhouse effect.
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Observations show that global temperatures have risen by about 0.6 °C over the 20th
century. There is strong evidence now that most of the observed warming over the last 50
years is caused by human activities. Climate models predict that the global temperature
will rise by about 6 °C by the year 2100.
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emissions of greenhouse gases and protecting and enhancing greenhouse gas sinks and
reservoirs. The commitment includes the preparation and communication of national
inventories of greenhouse gases. The Climate convention does not have any quantitative
targets or timetables for individual nations. However, the overall objective can be
interpreted as stabilization of emissions of greenhouse gases by year 2000 at 1990 levels.
The deciding body of the climate convention is the Conference of Parties (COP). At the
COP meetings, obligations made by the parties are examined and the objectives and
implementation of the climate convention are further defined and developed. The first
COP was held in Berlin, Germany in 1995 and the latest (COP 10) was held in December
2004, Buenos Aires, Argentina.
There is a scientific consensus that human activities are causing global warming that
could result in significant impacts such as sea level rise, changes in weather patterns and
adverse health effects. As it became apparent that major nations such as the United States
and Japan would not meet the voluntary stabilization target by 2000, Parties to the
Convention decided in 1995 to enter into negotiations on a protocol to establish legally
binding limitations or reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. It was decided by the
Parties that this round of negotiations would establish limitations only for the developed
countries, including the former Communist countries (called annex A countries).
Emissions Reductions
The United States would be obligated under the Protocol to a cumulative reduction in its
greenhouse gas emissions of 7% below 1990 levels for three greenhouse gases (including
carbon dioxide), and below 1995 levels for the three man-made gases, averaged over the
commitment period 2008 to 2012.
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The Protocol states that developed countries are committed, individually or jointly, to
ensuring that their aggregate anthropogenic carbon dioxide equivalent emissions of
greenhouse gases do not exceed amounts assigned to each country with a view to
reducing their overall emissions of such gases by at least 5% below 1990 levels in the
commitment period 2008 to 2012.
The amounts for each country are listed as percentages of the base year, 1990 and range
from 92% (a reduction of 8%) for most European countries--to 110% (an increase of
10%) for Iceland.
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QUESTIONS
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