Critical summary of the article by richard hass, published in foreign affairs

Magazine --- “How world order ends”

1. Introductory Words:
A stable world order is a rare thing in world history, however when
one tends to arise it is after a great convulsion when we see a strong
desire and the condition for something new and durable.
Three things are needed to govern the conduct of international relations.
 Broad acceptance of the rules of global governance.
 Statecraft skills.
 Creative Diplomacy.
2. Factors eroding a world order:
 Distributed balance of power.
 Institutions fail to adapt to new condition.
 Movers and shapers make mistakes.
 World orders tends to end with ‘wimper’(gradually decline with pain)
rather than a ‘bang’.
3. Parallels to todays world order
 Thucydides trap
 WW1 when germany and japan expanded by attacking poland manchurian
Island and USA ,Europe kept quite.
 Concert of europe and vienna congress 19th century
-Joint hegemony to control affairs in a multipolar world.

4. What ails the order?

 Rise and fall of major powers

 Statescraft, technology, new politics can work together to cause change in an order.
 Shifts in Economy, Military Balance.
4. A tale of two orders (post 1945 scenerio)
 Liberal order USA , Western Europe,Brettonwood
 Communists Led by USSR
 Both the orders Rave deteriorated at present --- however nuclear detterence still holds.
 Developments showing decline in the power of USA, Russia or the inability of the
Existing order:
Ukraine ,Syria, US 2016 elections cyber warfare, Iraq war 2003, 2016 Libya,
Regime change 2000-08.
 Deterioration in liberal economic order
 Authoritanism—Russis , China, Eastern Europe, Turkey, Philipines.
 WTO--- unable to deal with the challenges emavating from trade disputes.
 p5---- of little relevance.
5. Factors trigering New Power Shifts
 Rise of China
 North Korea , Iran ------ reject one important aspect of the order.
 Non State Actors.
 Polulism, Nationalism.
 US, behaviour as nationalist state poses serious threats to effective
States craft.
6. What lies a head?
 Resurrection of the old order will be imposssible.
 USA and the future world order.
USA to support NPT---- Global zero non – discriminatory behavior.
Offer support countries fighting terrorism especially in Asia
Strengthen its alliance in europe
 Multilateralism by USA
 WTO’s role.
 Chinese-led order is expected to be illeberal.
7. Conclusion
 World is not on the edge of systemic crisis.
 Break down in China -US relations or Russia – US clash nonr should materialize.
 Conflagration in the ME
 Cumulative effective of climate change.
 GOOD NEWS: The good news is it is far from inevitable world will arrive at a
catastrophe
 BAD NEWS: Far from certain that it will not.