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PROBABILITY

Math 101 Elementary Statistics


Objective

Determine sample space and find the


probability of an event.
Statistical Experiment (Experiment)

The process of generating data or the process of


observing data that leads to a well-defined results
called OUTCOMES.
Examples
 Recording whether a customer prefers one or two brands
 Recording voter’s opinion on an important political issue
 Measuring the amount of dissolved oxygen in a polluted
river
 Observing the closing price of a stock
 Counting the number of errors in an inventory
 Observing the fraction of insects killed by a new
insecticide
Tossing a Die and Observing the Up-face

The six basic possible outcomes to this


experiment are:
Observe a 1 Observe a 4
Observe a 2 Observe a 5
Observe a 3 Observe a 6
Sample Space

The set of all possible outcomes of a statistical


experiment is called SAMPLE SPACE and is
represented by the symbol 𝑆.
Tossing a Coin

Sample space:
1. Observe a head
2. Observe a tail
𝑆 = 𝐻, 𝑇
Where H represents the simple event “Observe a head” and
T represents the simple event “observe a tail”
Tossing Two Coins
Sample space:
1. Observe HH (Head on coin1, Head on coin 2)
2. Observe HT (Head on coin 1, Tail on coin 2)
3. Observe TH (Tail on coin 1, Head on coin 2)
4. Observe TT (Tail on coin 1, Tail on coin 2)

𝑆 = 𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝑇


Rolling Two Dice
Sample Space
Event

An event consists of set of outcomes of a probability.


An event with one outcome is called a simple event.
The collections of simple events consisting of two or
more simple events are called compound events.
Tossing a Die and Observing the Up-face
The six basic possible outcomes to this experiment
are:
Observe a 1 Observe a 4
Observe a 2 Observe a 5
Observe a 3 Observe a 6
Simple Events are 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6
Compound Events are: Seven = {2,4,6}
𝑆𝑜𝑑𝑑 = 1,3,5
Basic Interpretations of Probability
Classical Probability

Classical probability uses sample spaces to determine


the numerical probability that an event will happen. It
assumes that all outcomes in the sample space are
equally likely to occur.
Equally likely events are events that have the same
probability of occurring.
Formula for Classical Probability
The probability of any event E is

Number of outcomes in E
Total number of outcomes in the sample space

This probability is denoted by


𝑛 𝐸
𝑃 𝐸 =
𝑛 𝑆
Remark
Probability can be expressed as fraction, decimals, or
percentage.

The following are equivalent


“One-half”
“Point five”
“Fifty Percent”
Tossing a Die S={1,2,3,4,5,6}

Probability of simple events


1 1
𝑃 1 = 𝑃 4 =
6 6
1 1
𝑃 2 = 𝑃 5 =
6 6
1 1
𝑃 3 = 𝑃 6 =
6 6
Tossing a Die S={1,2,3,4,5,6}
Probability of Compound Events
Define the following event:
𝐴 = 1,3,5 , 𝐵 = 2,4,6 , 𝐶 = 1,2
𝑛 𝐴 3 1 𝑛 𝐴∪𝐶 4
𝑃 𝐴 = = = 𝑃 𝐴∪𝐶 = =
𝑛 𝑆 6 2 𝑛 𝑆 6
𝑛 𝐵 3 1 𝑛 𝐴∩𝐶 1
𝑃 𝐵 = = = 𝑃 𝐴∩𝐶 = =
𝑛 𝑆 6 2 𝑛 𝑆 6
𝑛 𝐶 2 1 𝑛 𝐴∩𝐵 0
𝑃 𝐶 = = = 𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵 = =
𝑛 𝑆 6 3 𝑛 𝑆 6
Properties of Probability
• The probability of any event E must lie between
0 and 1.

0≤𝑃 𝐸 ≤1
Properties of Probability

• The probabilities of all the simple events within


a sample space must sum to 1.
Examples
Tossing a Coin
Simple Event H T Total
Probability 1/2 1/2 1

Tossing Two Coins


Simple Event HH HT TH TT Total

Probability 1/4 1/4 1/4 1/4 1


Examples

Tossing a Die
Simple Event 1 2 3 4 5 6 Total

Probability 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1


Properties of Probability
• If an event E cannot occur, its probability is
zero.

Tossing a Die
𝑃 9 =0
Properties of Probability
• If an event E is certain to happen, its
probability is 1

Tossing a Coin
𝑃 𝐻, 𝑇 =1
Complementary Events
The complement of an event E is the event that E
does not occur.
i.e. the event consisting of all simple events
that are not in event E

Notation: 𝐸 ′ or 𝐸 𝑐 or 𝐸
Exercise
Find the complement of each event
1. 𝐸 = Rolling a die and getting a 4.
2. 𝐸 = Selecting a letter of the alphabet and getting a
vowel.
3. 𝐸 = Selecting a month and getting a month that begin
with J
4. 𝐸 = Selecting a day of the week and getting a
weekday
Exercise
Answer
1. 𝐸 = getting a 1, 2, 3, 5 , or 6.
2. 𝐸 = getting a consonant
3. 𝐸 = getting February , March, April, May, August,
October, November, or December
4. 𝐸 = getting Saturday or sunday
Properties of Probability

𝑃 𝐸 +𝑃 𝐸 =1
Example
If the probability that a person lives in an industrialized
country of the world is 1/5, what is the probability that a
person does not live in an industrialized country.
Solution:
P(living in industrialized country) + P(not living in industrialized
country)=1
P(not living in industrialized country)=1 – P(living in
industrialized country)
P(not living in industrialized country)= 1 – 1/5=4/5
Practice Practice …

Find the probability that when two dice are


rolled, the sum of the number of dice is 7.

The Probability is 1/6 .


Practice Practice …

What is the probability that a die never comes up


an even number when it is rolled six times?

Answer : 1/64
Practice Practice …
What is the probability that the numbers 11, 4, 17,
39, 23 are drawn in that order from a bin containing
50 balls labelled with the numbers 1,2,…,50. if
(a) The ball selected is not returned to the bin before
the next ball is returned (Sampling without replacement)
(b) The ball selected is returned to the bin before the

next ball is selected(Sampling with replacement)


Practice Practice …

A sequence of ten bits is randomly generated. What


is the probability that at least one of this bits is 0?

1023
The probability is .
1024
Quiz
1. A 25 Cent Coin, 1Piso Coin , and a die are tossed.
(a) Describe a suitable sample space S, and find n(S).
(b) Enumerate the elements of the following events:
A ={two heads and an even number}
B ={2 appears}
C ={exactly one head and an odd number}
(c) Enumerate the elements of the ff. events:
(i) A and B; (ii) only B; (iii) B and C
2. A fair coin is tossed eight times and the outcomes are recorded.
What is the probability that exactly three of the eight flips will be heads?
Widescreen Test Pattern (16:9)

Aspect Ratio Test


(Should appear
circular)

4x3

16x9