Table of Content:

1EXCECUTIVE 1
SUMMARY
INTRODUCTION 2
OBJECTIVE OF THE 3
STUDY
METHODOLOGY 4
ANALYSIS AND 5-13
INTERPRETATION
LIMITATION 14
CONCLUSION 15

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
The Project consists of a detailed statistical study of data which consists of
areas like:

1) NSE: Opening, Closing, Maximum and Minimum.

2) Gold: Opening, Closing, Maximum and Minimum.

3) Silver: Opening, Closing, Maximum and Minimum.

Data for a period of 60 days were gathered together and a descriptive study
was carried out on the available and gathered set of data. The objective for this
study we learn to estimate or make inferences on the particular sample chosen
from the population. Estimation of results based on sample ensures high
degree of reliability. By using various techniques of descriptive statistics we
estimated many things like fluctuations in the market, everyday changes in the
prices of Gold and Silver. We proceeded with our work by framing and testing
of hypothesis and use of various other techniques like analysis of variance.

For each of the areas namely: gold, silver and NSE we calculated values like
Mean, Median, Variance, Skewness, kurtosis, etc. We then carried out the t-
test for the values. We then tested the hypothesis so made and accepted or
rejected the data accordingly.

After taking out the various values we then interpreted the results accordingly.

INTRODUCTION:

Statistics is a set of tools and techniques that are used to organize and analyse
data. The data so chosen by us must be numeric in nature. For example
statistics can be used to analyse marks of various subjects .Statistics can be
used for two purposes namely; descriptive and predictive. If the data set
depends upon on a sample of a larger population, then the researcher or the
analyst can develop various interpretations about the population based on the
sample drawn. In statistics we consider various variables for which we gather
information. After consideration of the required variables, then descriptive
statistics comes into the picture where we study distribution of each variable.

Now, the next comes the Predictive statistics where we after summarizing and
analysing the collected set of data we make predictions about the future set of
events. The predictions are made on the context that we analyse the similar
patterns and trends observed in the collected data and take decisions
accordingly. Prediction is a primary goal of inferential statistics.

Prediction is based upon prior knowledge or experience. Although the future

events are uncertain, guaranteed accurate information about the future at
points seem to be impossible but by using the statistics measures it becomes
an easy job for the estimation and prediction of future events.

Objective of the study:

The objective of statistic is to:

1) To make inferences about a sample based on information we derive from a

population

2) To use population mean, as an estimate of the sample mean x.

3) To make inferences about a sample with a high degree of reliability.

Through this study we are trying to estimate:

- Fluctuation in the share prices over the period of 60 days, prices of gold and
silver.

ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

GOLD OPENING, CLOSING,HIGH AND LOW

Gold-Open Gold- Close

Mean 3134.50235 Mean 3138.629684

Standard Error 22.23863652 Standard Error 21.16237147
Median 3100 Median 3110.525025
Mode 2960 Mode 3100
Standard Deviation 177.9090922 Standard Deviation 169.2989717
Sample Variance 31651.64507 Sample Variance 28662.14183
-
Kurtosis -0.64549939 Kurtosis 0.283147999
Skewness 0.539693991 Skewness 0.602860747
Range 645 Range 689
Minimum 2855 Minimum 2861
Maximum 3500 Maximum 3550
Sum 200608.1504 Sum 200872.2998
Count 64 Count 64
ConfidenceLevel(95.0%) 44.44036897 ConfidenceLevel(95.0%) 42.28962488
Gold- High Gold- Low

Mean 3176.083591 Mean 3106.429699

Standard Error 23.09945016 Standard Error 19.99926225
Median 3155.125 Median 3089.575074
Mode 3100 Mode 3100
Standard Deviation 184.7956013 Standard Deviation 159.994098
Sample Variance 34149.41425 Sample Variance 25598.11139
- -
Kurtosis 0.678388874 Kurtosis 0.482648691
Skewness 0.470275904 Skewness 0.554669171
Range 739 Range 602
Minimum 2861 Minimum 2855
Maximum 3600 Maximum 3457
Sum 203269.3499 Sum 198811.5007
Count 64 Count 64
Confidence Confidence
Level(95.0%) 46.16056776 Level(95.0%) 39.96533657

When we have to find out central tendency, we will consider mean and median
value in case of metric data. Here in this data, there is not much difference
between mean & median, so that means no outliners is present. Hence we will
consider mean value for both opening and closing prices of gold.as such, under
normal conditions mean, standard deviation, range can be used as a proper
statistical measure.

STANDARD DEVIATION

sd: 157.1975496 sd: 147.3192091

Standard deviation is moderately high for gold opening than closing, so the
values of opening is slightly spread out than values of closing, so opening
values will have more variability than closing. In case of gold high and gold low,
standard deviation of gold high is marginally more than the standard deviation
of gold low. So the value of gold high is more spread out , it implies to the fact
that gold high is less consistent because it has more variability as compared to
gold low.

SAMPLE VARIANCE

GREATER THE VARIANCE greater will be the DISPERSION. In case of gold open
variance is higher than that of gold closing, it implies that the values of gold
open fluctuates more than gold closing, and the value of gold opening changes
and vary on a frequent basis. In case of gold high and gold low, gold high has
more variance which implies that the values of gold high changes on frequent
basis and gold low values are more consistent.

SKEWNESS

Gold low records the minimum skewenes and gold open records the highest in
case of gold all the values of skewness are slightly greater than zero. These are
positively skewed, but as the skewness of gold opening is greater than gold
closing ,gold high and gold low, so gold(opening) is skewed to the right little
more than gold closing. As the closing value is much closure to 0 its data will be
more symmetric than opening. The values for gold low will be more confined
as compared to others.

Kurtosis
All the values of kurtosis are negative which indicates it will have flatter peak
than normal distribution, but as we compared the value, kurtosis of gold
opening is much closer to 0 than that of gold closing and we know the more
negative value will have flatter peak, more flatter the peak will be less will be
the risk in determination of investment opportunities.
 SILVER OPENING, CLOSING, HIGH AND LOW

Silver Open Silver High Silver Low Silver Close

Mean 1079.104 Mean 1086.636 Mean 1072.718 Mean 1080.284

Standard
Standard Error 8.7576 Standard Error 8.938163 Error 8.470925 Standard Error 8.741233
Median 1070.256 Median 1088.244 Median 1069.177 Median 1083.207
Mode 1008.02 Mode 1110.189 Mode 1010.178 Mode 1011.617
Standard Standard Standard Standard
Deviation 70.0608 Deviation 71.5053 Deviation 67.7674 Deviation 69.92987
Sample Sample Sample
Variance 4908.516 Variance 5113.008 Variance 4592.42 Sample Variance 4890.186
Kurtosis -0.70671 Kurtosis -0.77253 Kurtosis -0.80842 Kurtosis -0.77746
Skewness 0.557457 Skewness 0.521133 Skewness 0.525851 Skewness 0.522637
Range 258.3006 Range 256.142 Range 236.7155 Range 243.9105
Minimum 990.7515 Minimum 996.5075 Minimum 987.154 Minimum 991.471
Maximum 1249.052 Maximum 1252.65 Maximum 1223.87 Maximum 1235.382
Sum 69062.65 Sum 69544.71 Sum 68653.97 Sum 69138.19
Count 64 Count 64 Count 64 Count 64
Confidence Confidence Confidence Confidence
Level (95.0%) 17.50067 Level(95.0%) 17.86149 Level(95.0%) 16.92779 Level(95.0%) 17.46796

MEAN AND MEDIAN

When we have to find out central tendency, we will consider mean and
median value in case of metric data; here in this data, there is not much
difference between mean & median, so it means no outliners is present.
Hence we will consider mean value for both opening and closing prices of
silver.as such, under normal conditions mean, standard deviation, range
can be used as a proper statistical measure.

STANDARD DEVIATION:

Standard deviation is moderately high for silver high than low, so the values of
opening are slightly spread out than values of closing. So silver opening values
will have more variability than the closing. In case of silver high and silver low,
standard deviation of silver high is marginally more than the standard deviation
of silver low. So the value of high is more spread out , it implies to the fact that
silver high is less consistent because it has more variability as compared to silver
low.

SAMPLE VARIANCE
SV: 24711.06959 SV: 21702.94937

GREATER THE VARIANCE greater will be the DISPERSION. In case of silver

open variance is higher than that of silver closing, it implies that the
values of silver open fluctuates more than silver closing, and the value of
silver opening changes and vary on a frequent basis. In case of silver high
and silver low, silver high has more variance which implies that the
values of silver high changes on frequent basis and silver low values are
more consistent.

SKEWNESS
Silver high records the minimum skewenes and silver open records the
highest in case of silver all the values of skewness are slightly greater
than zero, these are positively skewed, but as the skewness of silver low
is greater than silver closing, silver high and silver low,so silver (opening)
is skewed to the right little more than silver closing and as the closing
value is much closure to 0 its data will be more symmetric than opening.
The values for silver high will be more confined as compared to others.

KURTOSIS
All THE VALUES OF KURTOSIS ARE negative, which indicates it will have
flatter peak than normal distribution; but as we compared the value,
kurtosis of silver opening is much closer to 0 than that of silver low, and
we know the more negative value will have flatter peak, more flatter the
peak will be less will be the risk in determination of investment
opportunities.
 NIFTY REALITY

OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE

Mean 11507.11 Mean 11556.642 Mean 11420.07 Mean 11485.88

Standard Standard Standard Standard
Error 50.75492 Error 49.042394 Error 51.60395 Error 49.65318
Median 11614.75 Median 11639.9 Median 11532.5 Median 11582.9
Mode #N/A Mode #N/A Mode #N/A Mode #N/A
Standard Standard Standard Standard
Deviation 389.8559 Deviation 376.70178 Deviation 396.3774 Deviation 381.3933
Sample Sample Sample Sample
Variance 151987.6 Variance 141904.23 Variance 157115.1 Variance 145460.9
- -
Kurtosis 1.270694 Kurtosis 1.3990205 Kurtosis -1.30952 Kurtosis -1.42588
- -
Skewness 0.369688 Skewness 0.3037539 Skewness -0.36971 Skewness -0.26112
Range 1353.051 Range 1240.5 Range 1368.699 Range 1259.2
Minimum 10699.6 Minimum 10862.55 Minimum 10637.15 Minimum 10829.35
Maximum 12052.65 Maximum 12103.05 Maximum 12005.85 Maximum 12088.55
Sum 678919.4 Sum 681841.85 Sum 673784.3 Sum 677666.8
Count 59 Count 59 Count 59 Count 59

MEAN AND MEDIAN:

When we consider the mean value for nifty open and close we
see that there is not much difference between mean and
median values it means that no outliers are present. Mean
value is the more consistent value in terms of mean, similarly
for the mean values of nifty high and low there are no outliers
present.
 STANDARD DEVIATION:

When we consider the deviation in case of nifty open and close we

observe that in case of nifty open the deviation observed is more
than that in nifty close, we can conclude that that the market rates in
case of nifty open are more variable and less consistent and the rates
fluctuates often. When taking nifty high and low it can be stated that
the deviation in low values is more than the high value.

SAMPLE VARIANCE:

In considering the variance we can observe that variance in case of

open is more as compared to close which implies to the fact that the
opening share prices fluctuate more in case of opening shares than in
case of closing share.

KURTOSIS
All THE VALUES OF KURTOSIS ARE negative, which indicates it will have
flatter peak than normal distribution. but as we compared the value,
kurtosis of NSE opening is much closer to 0 than that of NSE low, and we
know the more negative value will have flatter peak. More flat the peak
will be less will be the risk in determination of investment opportunities.

5. SKEWNESS
NSE close records the minimum skewenes and silver open records the
highest in case of NSE all the values of skewness are slightly greater than
zero. these are positively skewed, but as the skewness of NSE low is
greater than NSE closing, NSE high and NSE low, so NSE (opening) is
skewed to the right little more than NSE closing as the closing value is
much closure to 0 its DATA WILL BE MORE SYMMETRIC THAN OPENING.
The values for NSE OPEN will be more confined as compared to others.
 HYPOTHESIS TESTING
T-TEST FOR GOLD PRICES:

Gold-Open Gold close

Mean 3134.50235 3106.429699
Variance 31651.64507 25598.11139
Observations 64 64
Pooled Variance 28624.87823
Hypothesized Mean
Difference 0
Df 126
t Stat 0.938613054
P(T<=t) one-tail 0.174862612
t Critical one-tail 1.657036982
P(T<=t) two-tail 0.349725225

t Critical two-tail 1.978970602

QUES 1) Does gold open value depends upon gold close value?

Ho: 𝜇ℎ𝑝 = 𝜇lp (perception is wrong)

H1: 𝜇ℎ𝑝 ≠ 𝜇lp (Perception is right)

Conclusion: Reject Ho

We can interpret from the above solution that open value of gold
does depend upon the close value of gold. The change in opening
value of gold depends upon other factors as well as closing value, like
frequent changes in the market due to external factors like
government policies and economic factors.

T-test for Silver

t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Unequal Variances

Silver
Silver Open Close
Mean 1079.103854 1080.284
Variance 4908.516167 4890.186
Observations 64 64
Hypothesized Mean
Difference 0
df 126
t Stat -0.09539908
P(T<=t) one-tail 0.462074703
t Critical one-tail 1.657036982
P(T<=t) two-tail 0.924149405
t Critical two-tail 1.978970602

Q) Does opening value of silver have an effect on the closing value of

silver?

Ho:𝜇𝑠𝑜 = 𝜇𝑠𝑐(Perception is wrong)

H1: 𝜇𝑠𝑜 ≠ 𝜇𝑠𝑐 (Perception is right)

Conclusion: Reject Ho

It implies to the fact that open value of silver does have an effect on
the closing value of silver. The change in opening value of silver
depends upon other factors as well as closing value, like frequent
changes in the market due to external factors like government
policies and economic factors.
T-test for NSE:
t-Test: Paired Two
Sample for Means

NSE NSE
Open Close
Mean 11507.11 11485.88
Variance 151987.6 145460.9
Observations 59 59
Pearson Correlation 0.973311
Hypothesized Mean
Difference 0
Df 58
t Stat 1.822213
P(T<=t) one-tail 0.03679
t Critical one-tail 1.671553
P(T<=t) two-tail 0.073579
t Critical two-tail 2.001717

T- Test for paired sample means both the values are from the same
individual, object or related units. This test is performed to
determine whether there is statistical evidence that means
difference between the paired observations.

We have considered the NSE opening and NSE closing.

Q) Does the opening value of NSE and the closing value of NSE is
equal?

Ho :𝜇𝑜𝑝 = 𝜇𝑐𝑙( perception is wrong)

Ho: 𝜇𝑜𝑝 ≠ 𝜇𝑐𝑙( Perception is correct)

Conclusion: Reject Ho

It can be well seen that the opening and closing values of NSE are not
equal. It can be due to the everyday fluctuations in the market and
the external forces that cause this fluctuation.

LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY

1) The Qualitative aspect of the study is ignored.
2) Methods available to study and analyse the data sets
were many which created problems.
3) Due to constant variation and fluctuations in the
share market the results were doubtful.
4) The data so studied was very small and it does not
exactly states the market story correctly.
5) The analysis at times was not giving satisfactory
results as required.

CONCLUSION
To conclude we can say that the data so presented was
taken from NSE, Gold and Silver and we run our analysis
on the opening, closing, high and low values of the data
over a period of 60 days. We performed the descriptive
statistics, one sample t-test and paired t-test, we then
framed hypothesis for the same.
This study helped us in gaining an overall understanding
of the market ups and downs. It also helped us in
learning the various concepts and application of the
same.