Sei sulla pagina 1di 19

The Future of Work We Want:

A global dialogue
Foreword

This report presents a short summary of the International Labour Organization’s (ILO’s) Global Dialogue
on “The Future of Work We Want”, which brought together leading economists, academics and rep-
resentatives from governments and social partners (employers’ and workers’ organizations) to discuss
the profound changes sweeping through the world of work. More than 700 people participated in the
two-day event, which took place at the International Labour Office in Geneva on 6–7 April 2017. In
addition, more than 2,000 people throughout the world followed the event and contributed via live
video streaming and social media.

The Global Dialogue was part of the broader ILO Centenary Initiative to explore and examine the
future of work in order to gain a better understanding of the drivers of the current unprecedented
change, such as technological innovation, the changes in the organization of work and production,
globalization, climate change, regulatory environment, demographic and migration shifts.

As part of the ILO Centenary Initiative, this two-day event marked an important step in deepening
our understanding of the changes we are facing as well as highlighting the need to develop effective
policy responses that can help shape the future of work to achieve the best possible outcome for our
society. The event was structured around the Initiative’s four “centenary conversations”, namely work
and society, decent jobs for all, the organization of work and production and the governance of work.
A special session also discussed the perspectives and views of young people. By bringing together
such a diverse group of people, almost all of whom are from outside the ILO, we heard thoughts and
viewpoints that both challenge and complement our own ideas about the future of work.

This landmark event on the future of work concluded with a call on the global community to make
social dialogue between governments and the social partners a key instrument for building a world
of work in which no one is left behind. The need to transform our thinking into concrete outcomes
and actions was also strongly emphasized, particularly in terms of addressing the urgent concerns
of young people.

I would like to thank the Research Department for coordinating the event and for preparing this
report. The event also benefited greatly from the strong collaboration of the ILO Policy Portfolio,
the Director-General’s Special Adviser on the Future of Work and the Future of Work Unit, the
Department of Communication and the Official Meetings, Documentation and Relations Department.

Deborah Greenfield
Deputy Director-General for Policy

1
Setting the scene: What future is coming,
what future do we want?

ILO Director-General Guy Ryder, in his opening to be created in the future around the world.
remarks, emphasized that the future of work is Over the period until 2030, the priority was
an issue of overwhelming complexity, which is to consider how the international community
fundamental to the circumstances in which we could attain the commitment expressed in the
live. As the one hundredth anniversary of the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to
ILO approaches, the Centenary Initiative pro- create full employment and decent work for all
vides an occasion to think deeply about the by 2030, which is also at the heart of the ILO’s
demands of our present circumstances  – the mandate.
current economic and political situation and its
attending social tensions – to chart a path for- The third conversation, concerning the organ-
ward. He highlighted the fact that a majority of ization of work and production, dealt with the
ILO member States have engaged in tripartite question of how work appears today to be more
dialogue at the national and/or regional level to diversified and issues relating to the employer–
analyse opportunities and address challenges employee relationship. The question is whether
associated with the future of work. this relationship will be the defining organ-
izing feature of work in the future or whether
The discussions and recommendations of this we are entering new territory, where work is no
Global Dialogue on the future of work will help to longer mediated through a labour relationship
inform the high-level Global Commission on the but rather through a commercialized relation-
Future of Work, which is being established by ship. The emergence of platform economies,
the ILO in the coming months. The Commission the diversification of contractual forms and
will prepare a report, which will feed into the the increasingly complex nature of fragmented
discussions at the 2019 International Labour global supply chains all raise major questions
Conference. about how these relationships will develop.
The Director-General set the scene for the
The fourth conversation dealt with the govern-
two-day event based on the four centenary con-
ance of work. The founders of the ILO were
versations.1 The first conversation, on work and
moved by considerations of humanity, social
society, raises a number of questions: What is
justice and the preservation of peace. These
the socializing function of work? How does the
three principles should be kept firmly in view
changing nature of work affect the coherence of
as we consider the future of work and how best
our societies? How is work being diversified and
to govern work in order to serve society. Finally,
undertaken in different settings and what are
and more importantly, the Centenary Initiative
the economic consequences and the potential
is seeking to broadly canvass the views of key
impact on our society?
actors in the world of work. It is through human
The second conversation focused on the nature agency, and not simply through the forces of
and creation of jobs. This related to projections technology or globalization or any other external
about the quantity and quality of employment factors, that the future of work will be forged.

1.  To follow the Global Dialogue on the Future of Work event, see http://www.ilo.org/futurewewant.

3
Keynote address and discussion
Lord Robert Skidelsky, from the University of several studies predict a bleak future for jobs
Warwick in the United Kingdom, gave the key- resulting from new forms of automation.2
note address opening the event on 6 April.
In fact, the emerging consensus is that there will
His speech focused on two main questions:
be fewer jobs overall, and that the few jobs avail-
(i)  How  will the meaning of work and leisure
able will be of either high or low quality, with
evolve with technological changes?, and (ii) How
little in between. These gloomy forecasts are
will working time be affected by technological
based on the premise that the digital revolution
as well as other drivers? He began his speech
is far more intrusive in the world of work and
by discussing the impacts of new technolo-
that it creates competition between human and
gies – automation and robotization – which are
machine, not just in terms of physical work but
transforming the world of work. In this context,
also in cognitive work – an area previously con-
an important question raised was “Where does
sidered to be the exclusive preserve of human
this fear that technological advance will mean
beings, given their unique cognitive abilities.
fewer jobs stem from?”, given that technological
progress over the past century has not led to He further argued that future developments in
technological unemployment but has, instead, the world of work would be underpinned by the
led to more jobs and the creation of new and traditional trade-off between work and leisure,
innovative products. The answer probably lies in i.e. the extent to which people value work over
the presumption that “this time is different”, as leisure, but also by the degree of choice that

2.  See, for instance, Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee: The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in
a Time of Brilliant Technologies (New York, W.W. Norton and Co., 2014).

4
they will be able to exercise in relation to that Policy alternatives for a shorter
balance. From an economic standpoint, techno- working week in the future
logical progress means that less work is needed
to produce a unit of output. In this context, if It is impossible to know whether innovation and
wages rise, work becomes more profitable than automation will lead to a shorter working week.
leisure and people work more (substitution If this were to happen, it would entail wide-
effect). Yet, as incomes rise, there is a higher spread structural changes. It is possible that, in
consumption of leisure as people can afford the face of innovation and technical progress,
the same level of consumption with less effort hours of work could potentially fall. Keynes, in
(income effect). Although the Keynesian hypoth- fact, envisaged a workless future, with all the
esis3 (i.e. that the income effect dominated the work necessary for life being done by “mechan-
substitution effect, resulting in average hours ical slaves”. This surely would be a step too far
of work declining from 60 to 40 hours per for the human race as it is presently constituted,
week) prevailed until the 1980s, since then the both psychologically and socially. However, if we
average number of working hours has remained assume that people will not have to work more
more or less static. The question is why has the than 15 hours a week and that full employment
relative value of work and leisure not changed without loss of income will become a reality,
since the 1980s. then what policy alternatives exist that could,
at least partially, help to address these issues?
Lord Skidelsky argued that a number of rea-
sons could potentially explain these develop- One thing that is clear is that the optimal out-
ments. First, for most people, work is valued come will not be attained if matters are left
above pecuniary benefits, as a source of per- entirely to the “market”. Neoclassical ­economics
sonal fulfilment, not simply to satisfy material provides no basis for intervention in an individ-
needs but as fundamental to personal devel- ual’s choices between work and leisure. Their
opment and community participation. Second, underlying assumption is that automation will
the innate insatiability of human desire for ma- further reduce the cost of production, yielding
terial gain, fostered by the current economic higher real incomes, and continued trade-off
structure through “relentless advertising”, also between income growth and leisure. As a
leads to longer working hours. Third, rather result, there is no cause for the natural rate of
than workers having a choice in the matter, it is unemployment to increase. However, this is a
the employers who determine the allocation of fictional picture as, in reality, most individuals
hours, earnings and conditions of work. Hours are not free to choose an optimal work–­leisure
of work, in this context, are not a measure of balance. Even given a scenario where innovation
workers’ wants but a manifestation of the struc- and automation will create sufficient replace-
tural power dynamics inherent in the labour ment or complementary jobs, there will still be
market. Unions and governments had power a problematic transitional period and it is im-
over these issues 40 years ago but that control portant to consider how to manage such eventu-
has been eroded due to the dismantling of the alities. So, to maintain full employment on the
trade unions, deregulation, financialization and basis of shorter working hours a certain degree
globalization. Finally, stagnant or falling real of market intervention is necessary and two pos-
wages have led median earners to increase their sible alternatives present themselves.
working hours in order to maintain or improve
their level of consumption. He suggested that Taxing robots and slowing the rate
it is imperative to consider the growing income of adoption of new technologies
inequalities since the 2007/08 recession and
Taxing new technologies, for example introducing
their role in determining working hours.
a tax on robots which replace human labour,
could slow down the speed of automation.

3.  See John Maynard Keynes: “Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren”, in Essays in Persuasion (New York, W.W.
Norton and Co., 1930).

5
A so-called robot tax also internalizes the social Another, more recent version of the idea of
costs of displacement, but questions arise citizens’ income is to provide all citizens with a
regarding the negative incentives this might dividend generated by the growth of the economy.4
create. A tax would increase costs, adding pres- The main idea is that individuals are shareholders
sures on firms to increase their productivity, in the economy, with their labour constituting a
which in turn increases the incentives for firms “share” which is not adequately compensated by
to substitute human labour for more productive their wages. To make such a proposal feasible,
machines. There is also the risk that, as tech- consideration could be given to the establish-
nology comes to replace more cognitive tasks, it ment of National Investment Banks, capitalized
will be increasingly difficult to identify discrete by taxpayers through general taxation and man-
units of labour associated with automation – dated to make investments that yield both private
something which is relatively easy to do when and social rates of return, which could be partly
the task is more manual in nature, e.g. robotized reinvested and partly distributed as dividend pay-
stock handling, or automatic checkouts. Without ments. The need for such a public investment5
a clear distinction, if artificial intelligence is has been exacerbated in recent years with the
bundled together with other machinery, then this “financialization” of the real economy and the
approach might end up taxing capital invest- short-term, rentseeking behaviour of investors.
ment, which may not yield a positive outcome.
Although there is some support for the idea of a
The idea would be to slow down the speed of
universal basic income in the face of the uncer-
automation so as to give more time for the work-
tain number of jobs available in an increasingly
force to adapt to the new situation.
digital economy, there are questions regarding
In a second step, a fund could be created from its financing. Such a scheme could be financed
the revenue raised through this tax, which could by, for example, high marginal tax rates on
potentially be used to support the training (or income and inheritance, since the primary
retraining) of those workers most affected by ­objective – in addition to smoothing the tran-
the transition. However, the tax on new tech- sition to a shorter working week – would be to
nologies should remain solely for offsetting the democratize the distribution of wealth.
costs of decelerating technological adoption. Lord Skidelsky concluded by saying that we
Alternatively, a fund could be created from gen- cannot stop technological innovation but we
eral taxation to support the transition of workers. can manage it collectively. Technology may be
endogenous in our kind of societies, but we can
Citizens’ income or universal basic income collectively exercise control over its application.
This requires international solutions to harmonize
An alternative way to manage the transition
the process of adaptation to the future of work,
would be to replace the lost income with a uni-
and “we can’t leave it to the market”, which in
versal income, often referred to as “citizens’
turn means that our society will require some
income” or “universal basic income”. This pro-
sort of global governance to oversee the process.
posal is not intrinsically linked to the challenges
In this context, the role of governments and
presented by automation. It can be traced back
institutions of the world of work become much
to Locke’s argument that everyone has a prop-
more relevant as we explore the way forward.
erty right to their own labour, including the earn-
ings of that labour, and also the choice of how In the discussion of this session, Director-General
much to work. While many might argue that Guy Ryder remarked that a move to embrace the
this would devalue work, it would actually free notion of universal basic income could be taken
people from the need to “earn a living”, giving to indicate that, to some extent, we are giving up
them the choice – historically the preserve of on work, and that it was important to emphasize
a privileged minority – of how much to “work”. that there was no question of doing so.

4.  See James Meade: Agathotopia: The Economics of Partnership (Aberdeen, Aberdeen University Press, 1989).
5.  This was originally stated by Adam Smith in his 1776 classic The Wealth of Nations.

6
Work and society 6
The panel in this first session focused on the been viewed in a positive light, as in ancient
changing role of work for individuals and soci- Greece, where it was associated with slavery,
eties and how the emergence of new forms of and freedom meant not having to work. Work
work, including the gig and platform economy, became sacrosanct as a consequence of the
is eroding standard forms of employment. The Protestant Church’s espousal of the “Protestant
panellists for this session included Isabelle work ethic”, based on the idea that work, and
Daugareilh (Centre National de la Recherche the associated effort, are central to the fulfil-
Scientifique), Thandike Mkandawire (London ment of the individual and a means of integration
School of Economics), Imraan Valodia (University into society.7 With industrialization, the concept
of the Witwatersrand), Marcel van der Linden of work gained more influence in society, and
(International Institute of Social History), Philip the notion of work, and attitudes towards it,
Jennings (UNI Global Union) and Peter Woolford changed over time. Sociologists in the 1990s
(Clairmark Consulting Limited). predicted the “end of work”; however, since the
2000s, the trend has reverted to underlining
Changing role of work for individuals the essential role of work for societies and indi-
and societies viduals.8 The reasoning behind attributing such
importance to work is based on extrinsic values
The concept of work has evolved over time, – people want to work for the psychological sta-
from a philosophical, sociological, historical bility, social integration, personal freedom and
and juridical perspective. Work has not always autonomy that it affords.

6.  See http://www.ilo.org/global/topics/future-of-work/WCMS_541627/lang--en/index.htm for the online discussion.


7.  See Max Weber: The Protestant Ethic (London, G. Allen and Unwin Ltd., 1990).
8.  See Dominique Méda: “TRAVAIL – La fin du travail?”, in Universalis éducation (online), Encyclopaedia Universalis,
available at: http://www.universalis-edu.com/encyclopedie/travail-la-fin-du-travail [accessed 5 June 2017]; and Dominique
Méda (with Patricia Vendramin): Réinventer le travail (Paris, PUF, 2013).

7
This Western idea of work is often epitomized by Today, we are witnessing a return to pre-
relatively secure jobs, high levels of income and standard forms of employment. The great chal-
social protections linked to employment. The lenge is that “standard” employment today is
“trade-off between work and leisure” is often no longer standard, but constitutes a more atyp-
considered to be a problem, but this is not the ical relationship. As a consequence, paid labour
reality in developing and emerging countries. In comes in increasing varieties – from traditional
these countries, the world of work is character- employment, to dependent or independent
ized by vulnerable and informal employment, self-employment and various forms of casual
excessively long hours of paid and unpaid work labour. The emergence of the digital economy,
(disproportionally carried out by women) and which is still only a marginal phenomenon, has
rudimentary social protection. However, the con- a tendency to hasten the erosion of traditional
cept of work remains ambiguous: people can die employment relationships. Another consequence
from work or at work, but also from trying to get of this process is that the employer becomes
work or from not having any work. “indirect/invisible” or “disappears” altogether,
along with any possibility of a clear attribution
Globally, countries are at different levels of of responsibility. “
development and have different capacities as
they embark into the “future”. Some countries
are at the forefront of innovation and technology, Challenging the role of trade unions
while others are trying to catch up. Those who The erosion of traditional employment also pre-
are at the cutting edge or close to it lead the sents a challenge to the role of trade unions. The
discussion about the “future of work” but it is disappearance/invisibility of the employer further
imperative to take the different levels of devel- weakens the position of trade unions, which lose
opment into account. From the African perspec- their counterpart. In the current debate on the
tive, catching up to the technological standards future of work, trade unions are also criticized as
of the developed world will involve a high level a tool of the twentieth century, adapted to the
of learning and will be cost intensive. It seems traditional employment relationship and obsolete
paradoxical that Western societies should start in terms of their ability to protect workers in the
to question technology, when they have demon- twenty-first century’s changing world of work,
strated in the past an aptitude for creating and especially in the digital economy.
controlling it successfully. The importance of
the Western model remains undisputed, but During the discussion, the point was made that
labour from developing countries can no longer trade unions have successfully fought for stand-
be extracted for Western purposes (consump- ardization of employment in the past, and believe
tion, servicing an ageing population, or dumping that they can do it again today and in the future.
electronic waste), and the issue needs to be dis- They have already started to organize workers in
cussed within a global context. global value chains, self-employed workers and
those who work in the digital economy (e.g. the
The emergence, stabilization and erosion media industry), despite often facing a hostile
of the “standard employment relationship” environment. They still represent the most im-
portant voice of workers; weakening trade union
Wage labour, especially casual day labour, power could have negative economic, social
has existed throughout history. The standard and political consequences for workers as well
employment relationship, which is a full-time, as for our society at large. In the context of
lifelong job for the male breadwinner, with a rising global inequalities and new forms of work,
sufficient wage to feed a family, with rights and it is important to have a democratic process
social protections, is the most advanced form of dialogue between workers and employers
of wage labour developed in the latter half of to mediate control of the gains of production.
the twentieth century. However, such standard Democratization is equally important for trade
employment was only dominant in a small part unions, and, finally, cooperatives might provide
of the world (namely Europe, North America, a way forward in the process of democratizing
Japan and Australia). production.

8
The North can learn from the South Policy challenges for the future
The developing world has been dealing for a long There are various strategies that could be
time with problems that the developed world is now employed in reacting to the current and future
facing: high rates of informality, under­employment transformations in the world of work. However,
and limited tax revenues to fund social protec- there are two areas that require urgent attention.
tion. The “flexibilization of labour” has often been First, the concept of work needs to be broadened
presented to the developing world as a means to to include unpaid work (especially, care work)
attract foreign investment. The developed world so that the notion of work is not just limited
is now experiencing the negative social conse- to wage labour. Second, technology should be
quences of its own approach, and there may be seen as a social production, and its negative
lessons to be learned from the Global South. aspects, such as employment reduction, can
Changes in the labour market are likely to be controlled through a social agenda. Some
increase inequalities in the foreseeable future Western societies have developed tools to intro-
and robotization will possibly accelerate the cur- duce technological change gradually, allowing
rent trend, since the rate of return of capital workers’ representatives and employers to nego-
will rise. Profits are financialized and not rein- tiate the conditions and rights (e.g. the right to
vested to produce more – so a surplus of money professional training/retraining). Furthermore, it
is generated by automation, which exists in the is important to start a normative discourse that
system but is not being utilized for production can guide institutions and develop ethical con-
purposes. This could be fiscally controlled in ventions for artificial intelligence and its broader
order to address inequalities and boost produc- application. For example, in France, the concept
tion. Redistribution policies in Latin American of an “ethical dialogue” with those who develop
countries, e.g. in Brazil, have succeeded in new technologies is currently being tested.
redistributing income from the capitalist class Finally, it was suggested that the ILO could
to workers. develop a standard on artificial intelligence.

Decent jobs for all9


The discussion on decent jobs for all focused other technological advances, will contribute to
on two key issues: in which sectors are new structural changes within industries and labour
jobs being created; and whether innovation markets and, in turn, redefine the types of jobs
and technology is disrupting standard forms of carried out in our economies. There exists an
employment and bringing in new non-standard element of fear, which is common in the face
forms of employment. The panellists for this of any uncertainty, but these developments also
session included Cai Fang (Chinese Academy of provide an opportunity for the creation of more
Social Sciences), Fu Xiaolan (Oxford University), and better jobs. History has shown – through
Richard Freeman (Harvard University), Tatiana previous industrial revolutions – that after ini-
Olegovna Razumova (Lomonosov Moscow tial disruption, technological change has brought
State University), Erica Manzi (Central Union improvements in job quality, without necessarily
of Workers of Rwanda) and Mthunzi Mdwaba precipitating a loss in the overall quantity of
(TZoro IBC and Business Unity South Africa). jobs. The current industrial revolution, led by
the digital revolution, presents an opportunity to
The future of work: create more and better jobs. Although history
Structural changes await may offer a favourable precedent, there are rea-
sons to believe that this industrial revolution may
The digital economy, innovation, artificial intel- be different. For one thing, the pace of change
ligence, robotization and 3D printing, among is faster, offering little time for pre-emptive

9.  See http://www.ilo.org/global/topics/future-of-work/WCMS_541629/lang--en/index.htm for the online discussion.

9
action and timely reaction. For some, however, Technological change will bring about
the most likely scenario is one in which the cur- productivity gains and inequality
rent inequalities are exacerbated, which merits
consideration of changes to the distribution of The future of work will be marked by greater
productivity gains. inequality within and between countries.
Productivity gains will be led by capital – owners
As some of the defining tasks of jobs are of capital will reap the benefits of future product-
automated, certain jobs, such as those requiring ivity gains. The declining labour share of income
repeated actions, will be lost. Routine, repetitive already observed will continue and, if capital
and physical jobs will disappear, as will these remains in the hands of a few social actors, in-
tasks within jobs. These include “blue-collar” equality will increase exponentially. Market forces,
jobs but also – and in contrast with previous as the mechanism for distributing wealth in
disruptions – “white-collar” jobs. Work that is society, may not ensure decent living conditions.
difficult to automate will gain more prominence Redistribution is warranted, with governments
for human labour, for example, complex tasks playing a key role in addressing rising inequality
relying on high-level cognitive skills, soft skills and the social conflict that it may incite.
and creativity. Certain industries might disappear
as a result of specific technologies (e.g. 3D Policy challenges to help curtail inequality
printing), wherein entire production chains may and adjust to structural change
be reorganized and relocated, so that production
takes place closer to consumers or resources. Technology has brought us to an inflection point.
We are in transition, and consensual redistribu-
The changes brought about by automation will tion policies are vital for it to be a fair transi-
increase the demand for certain types of jobs tion. Reducing inequality should be the primary
and skills. The occupational structure of our objective of all future policy development. We
economies will change, too, according to the should pause and reflect on the kind of future
human’s advantage over machines. As machines that we want to achieve for our society, and
penetrate all occupations, the future of work policy discussion should be guided by gathering
will be one in which workers function alongside new data and empirical analysis. Resulting pol-
machines or computers. Jobs in research, devel- icies should be rights-based, consensual and
opment and support for new technologies will founded on global solidarity and global govern-
remain and grow. Productivity gains will increase ance. Social justice and human welfare should
leisure hours and hence the demand for services be the guiding principles.
in the recreation sector will rise. Jobs in the care
economy will increase in the near future; how- Several policy tools are available to redistribute
ever, a machine may eventually be able to carry productivity gains, all prompting a prominent
out related tasks, albeit devoid of any emotional role for governments and multilateral organ-
or social content. izations. They include a guaranteed universal
basic income, a “robot tax”, as discussed
The impact of innovation and technology on earlier, or profit-sharing governance within enter-
the world of work will vary considerably by prises. Traditional policy tools and institutions,
country. Job quality will not necessarily increase wage-setting mechanisms, collective bargaining,
as a result of technological change. Moreover, labour market regulation, social dialogue and
human labour can always compete if workers are social protection remain as relevant as ever.
willing to accept sufficiently low wages. This, Profit-sharing or worker-ownership schemes could
in turn, highlights the challenge for developing also be seen as effective measures for redistrib-
economies and their ability to remain competi­ uting productivity gains. Profit-sharing schemes
tive in a global economy where productivity, avoid pitting labour against capital and may
innovation and competitiveness rely on high- work to both workers’ and employers’ advantage.
level STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering These schemes are prevalent in some countries,
and Mathematics) skills, which may be in short like South Africa and France, and they provide
supply in those regions. an opportunity for trade unions to enhance their
role in the discussion about the future of work.

10
Skills are key to ensuring that workers are their offer to provide students and workers with
on the right side of the technological divide soft skills (e.g. social and communication skills,
creativity and teamwork), entrepreneurial and
Technological change will disrupt the labour managerial skills that are harder to automate
market, and it will change the types of jobs and offer workers the flexibility to move between
available and how they are carried out. The skills jobs. This also means providing students and
needed to carry out these tasks will change as workers with digital and IT skills, computer
well, highlighting the role for education providers science and computer programming skills, as
and policy-makers. Given the pace of innovation interactions with machines will be a common
and technological change, higher education has denominator across most, if not all, jobs.
to be innovative. There is a greater need for lib-
eral arts education versus occupation-oriented Yet, there is debate as to what this means for
education. Incentives for workers to upskill and education providers in terms of providing stu-
gain high-level skills may need to be devised, par- dents with a wide or narrow set of skills. This
ticularly in emerging economies. Specific incen- could mean offering educational services which
tives for those aged 40 to 50 may be required, would orient students towards general education
as they are in the most difficult position when instead of occupation-based education, miti-
it comes to reskilling and adapting to new jobs. gating the risk to students of those occupations
Universities and technical vocational institu- changing or even disappearing in the medium
tions need to continuously adapt to the changing term. General education (e.g. liberal arts edu-
nature of jobs, building human capital that will cation) may equip students with the skills to be
allow future workers to remain relevant in the flexible and remain relevant in a changing labour
labour market and to be sufficiently flexible to market. However, there is also a need to build
adapt to the changing employment situation. strong linkages between education providers,
employers, unions and government institutions,
The specific jobs that will be created, and the to ensure that the skills provided are aligned to
benefits that a society will reap from the future those demanded by employers. In this regard,
of work, will depend on the availability of skills vocational training systems and skills in STEM
to meet the upcoming demand. Education pro- subjects might help to meet the future demand
viders need to keep pace, innovate and re-orient and offer better access to the loci of innovation.

How to shape the future of work for youth10


The Global Dialogue also featured a special ses- and new technologies, while others are not yet
sion on how to shape the future of work for youth, able to take advantage of the increase in op-
with a particular focus on the transition from portunities. It is also important to consider that
school to work. The panellists for this session younger generations may not have the same
included Clémentine Moyart (European Youth linear job expectations as prior generations. The
Forum), Ammin Youssouf (Afrobytes), Thiébaut norm today is to have several short-term jobs,
Weber (Confédération Française Démocratique including unpaid and volunteer work and intern-
du Travail) and Salonie Hiriyur (International ships, all with limited social protection.
Labour Organization).
Inclusive education to boost
There was a general consensus that youth are
the employability of youth
not a homogenous group, with significant dif-
ferences in gender, levels of income, access In the context of addressing the future employ-
to education, skill levels and location. Some ability of youth and the reduction of an ever-­
youth are in a position to embrace globalization increasing mismatch between supply of and

10.  See http://www.ilo.org/global/topics/future-of-work/WCMS_541634/lang--en/index.htm for the online discussion.

11
What is the most important criterion
for a young person entering the labour market?

9% 12% 56% 23%


Reputable Job fits their Quality of work Good salary
employer experience experience and benefits

More than 50 per cent of those who participated in the interactive poll
conducted during the session believed that the most important criterion for
employment is the quality of the work experience. In addition to quality, their
other concerns were paying back student debt, social protection, ease of
access to the workplace, learning possibilities, etc.

demand for labour, inclusive education that Challenges for youth concerning
includes a lifelong learning approach was iden- the world of work
tified as a good strategy. It could also address
the issue of a much-needed adaptability to a Policy-makers need to understand the chal-
fast-changing world of work where people will lenges that young people face in the labour
have to change jobs and accept employment on market, to capture their voices and amplify
a short-term basis. In addition, soft skills such as them. This must begin with the understanding
communication and networking should be devel- that young people are the future drivers of our
oped by all and should not be restricted to higher governments, economies and societies. Rising
education. inequality remains one of the biggest issues,
and there are fears that digitalization will further
Internship or other types of work-based learning widen the gap, while youth continue to struggle
could also help to improve the employability of to enter the labour market. The labour markets
youth and assist them in transitioning into the should be more inclusive and not discriminate
labour market. However, the issue of unpaid on the basis of gender, sexual orientation, race,
internships was raised as a concern that needs ethnicity or socio-economic class.
to be addressed, as it contradicts the principle
of “equal pay for work of equal value”. Some There is also a need to address the representa-
young people might feel as if their contributions tion of youth in trade union movements, taking
as interns were being viewed as less valuable. into consideration the new reality in the world
of work, as an increasing number of youth are
Other alternative options included vocational either in non-standard forms of employment or
training (including apprenticeships) to create in informal work. The other concerns include:
better links in the transition to work. The quality reforming the education system, which is cur-
of apprenticeships is very important and could rently not well-matched to the needs of the
forge a path into the labour market, guaran- market, increasing the range of social protec-
teeing a training experience rather than a normal tion systems to cover all, a growing population,
job. However, it was also felt that there was international migration, climate change and the
still a certain stigma associated with vocational present political situation in the world. It is vital
training, in comparison to a university degree. to protect the needs of young people, as this
is a group that is especially relevant, since the
future of work is theirs.

12
Organization of work and production11
The issues of how rapid changes in the or- Outsourcing, franchising, subcontracting and
ganization of work and production will impact third-party management are just some examples
existing models of employment, and whether of this transformation of the production struc-
and to what extent employee–employer rela- ture. Information and computer technologies
tionships will continue to focus on protection, (ICTs) have enabled this transformation of work.
were areas of emphasis of the discussion in this
session. The panellists for this session included An initial consequence of splitting off functions,
Fabrizio Cafaggi (University of Trento), Florence such as tasks that were once managed internally,
Palpacuer (University of Montpellier), Youba is that business enterprises exert control without
Sokona (University College London), David Weil bearing the responsibility for working conditions
(United States Department of Labor), Catelene within their network of providers and suppliers in
Passchier (European Trade Union Confederation) different locations. Large firms with recognized
and Kris De Meester (Federation of Enterprises). brands devolve responsibility for their workers
to increasingly complex and fluid networks of
The organization of work has undergone radical suppliers and franchisees. This can trigger an
changes over the past decades, which have led ambigu­ous definition of responsibilities for safety,
to a “fissured workplace”12 and allowed com- and lead to loopholes in coordination. A major
panies to substantially reduce production costs. challenge is how to reappropriate political power

11.  See http://www.ilo.org/global/topics/future-of-work/WCMS_541635/lang--en/index.htm for the online discussion.


12.  This term refers to the common practice of major businesses shifting some activities, which were formerly done
inside the organization and are now deemed peripheral to the core business, to other parties.

13
How do you see the progress made in formalizing the informal economy?

7% 27% 13% 23% 30%


Significant Some increase Significant Some increase No change
increase in formal increase in informal
in formal arrangements in informal arrangements
arrangements arrangements

In response to the interactive poll question: “How do you see the progress made
in formalizing the informal economy?”, about 7 per cent of respondents felt that
effective progress had been made to formalize the economy, while 27 per cent
acknowledged some increase in formal arrangements and the remainder felt that not
much progress had been made.

in order to be able to govern the organization of and the nature of competitiveness in the market.
work and production once again. Therefore, there is no one strategy that fits all.

A crucial issue to be addressed in this context, A second implication of shifting employment


according to panellists, is realigning control and to third parties  is that labour laws and social
responsibility in global supply chains (GSCs). protection are set at the national level, and the
Regulatory frameworks and laws need to be terms and conditions of employment differ widely
revised to allow companies to keep the beneficial along the supply chains for workers in different
aspects of globalization and at the same time economic structures, with different employment
meet their obligations to workers. This could be situations. There is a need to reflect on the
done either by centralizing and r­ ealigning respon- possibility of creating new forms of responsi-
sibility to business enterprises or by decentral- bility, taking into account the different actors
izing control and responsibility, and bringing involved and their possible levels of control. The
power down to the local level. Some attempts best alternative is to combine centralization/
decentralization and private/public enforcement.
are being made to enhance the role of intermedi­
In this respect, it was suggested that the ILO
aries, such as in Indonesia or Latin American
could play a pivotal role in ensuring the effect-
countries, where governments are in the process
iveness of legal enforcement mechanisms.
of regulating these intermediaries, who act as
links between multinationals and local firms and
allow them to exercise control over local firms. Providing protection to the workers
Some other examples of similar measures may in global supply chains
be found outside the GSCs (e.g. cooperatives),
Shifting employment to third parties  can also
but these need to be supported politically as they result in a lack of protection for the workers
entail difficult issues of implementation. Both (self-employed, independent, informal, etc.), and
options, centralization and decentralization, rep- the question of how, then, to provide them with
resent a huge challenge and require the backing adequate social protection is a concern. There
of governments. was a debate about whether concrete actions
This strategy has to be adapted to the specific have been taken to formalize the economy, and
an acknowledgement that, although some steps
supply chain, as GSCs have different characteris-
have been taken, much more needs to be done.
tics in different sectors and regions. For instance,
in the agro-food or mining sector, the main issue In this context, there was some debate with
is control over primary resources, while in the regard to the provision of social protection for
automotive or electronics industry the way in these workers. Those in favour of the exten-
which control is exercised depends on the local- sion of social protection to self-employed and
ization of resources, the ownership of resources informal workers argued that these workers

14
face more precarious labour market conditions Addressing governance gaps
and greater risks in terms of occupation and
safety. Moreover, excluding these workers would To regulate GSCs that transcend borders and
create incentives to hire people through such multiple regulatory systems the issue is iden-
informal arrangements. Others argued that the tifying an appropriate mechanism. Rules alone
self-employed voluntarily choose to be autono­ are not sufficient – it is essential to have
mous workers, and therefore should not lay enforcement measures in place. Within GSCs,
claim to collective social security arrangements. some suppliers deliver to several companies at
However, two alternatives – not mutually exclu- the same time, and putting pressure on such
sive – emerged for extending social protection to suppliers could have a greater impact on several
the self-employed: to expand social protection brands with consequences for the whole system.
to include self-employed and informal workers; Consumers also have an important role to play
and to ensure that commercial contracts con- in promoting fair working conditions for all,
tain clauses requiring that certain protection including the self-employed. Consumer demand
standards are also applied to the self-employed. for “fair” products can put pressure on com-
The discussion on non-standard forms of work, panies and pave the way for sustainable working
self-employed and informal workers also raised structures. Joint efforts between different actors
questions about the tripartite structure as a can also help in achieving better working condi-
relevant model; the general view that emerged tions. For example, the Fair Wear Foundation,
was that there is no need to alter it. working together with brands, factories, trade
unions and non-governmental organizations
(NGOs), shows how coordination can be effective
Challenges faced by trade unions
in promoting changes in labour conditions in
While there are still aspects of traditional em- the supply chain. Similarly, to guarantee that a
ployment forms present in the new forms of product has been produced according to certain
employment – for example, control and depend- fairness standards, the multitude of national
ency dynamics between employer and employee certifications could be replaced with one single
have not disappeared – a number of new aspects international certification, one set of certifica-
in these relationships need to be considered. tion rules and one single institution in charge of
Trade unions need to rethink the traditional inspection and certification.
negotiation paradigm and develop new forms of
collective bargaining, where negotiations occur Some expressed the view that the need for
between the union and a workplace rather than international framework agreements appears
a specific employer or sector. To cope with the even more pressing in a world where capital is
changes in a globalized labour market, it is ne- extremely mobile and moves across borders,
cessary to adopt a concerted approach among while labour remains within the national bound-
unions. A joint trade union is deemed to have aries. Some concrete steps have been taken
more bargaining power with multinationals and to improve working conditions; however, there
to be more capable of empowering the power- are still aspects of globalization that must be
less. Moreover, greater efforts should be made addressed in order to achieve decent working
to transfer part of the benefits of globalization conditions for all. In this context, international
from enterprises to workers. There have been organizations can play a crucial role by pro-
instances in the past, as in the case of the moting internationally recognized standards
Netherlands, where trade unions negotiated with and instruments to deal with globalization.
employers for part-time contracts that included The ILO’s instruments are relevant to achieving
the precondition of equal treatment and equal better working conditions in a globalized labour
access to the social security system, which was market, where new technologies will continue
integrated into the arrangements. A number to transform the workplace. The ILO strives to
of important experiments are currently under ensure that all forms of work are decent and, in
way to integrate these changes into the system order to be fully effective, governments should
and several newly emerging organizations are ensure that ILO instruments are translated into
attempting to devise efficient ways to effect this. their respective national laws and practice.

15
Governance of work13
The discussion on governance of work focused may be more effective than others. In order to
on two key issues: (i) How can society respond discuss the future, there is a need to reflect
to the erosion of the established frameworks, on employment relationships from a historical
norms and institutions in order to regulate work? perspective, especially the ILO’s Philadelphia
and (ii) Do we need new or different governance Declaration of 1944, which states that “labour is
structures to regulate work effectively? The pan- not a commodity”, and to consider the views of
ellists for this session included Jennifer Bair others. Karl Polanyi, in the same year, in his book
(University of Virginia), Richard Hyman (London The Great Transformation, argues that labour is
School of Economics), Kamala Sankaran a fictitious commodity and this premise helps
(University of Delhi), Roberto Pires (Instituto de to explain three phases of employment relation-
Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada), Luc Cortebeeck ships. The first occurred during the nineteenth
(Workers’ Group of the ILO) and Roberto Suarez century, when in some countries there was an
Santos (International Organisation of Employers). expansion of industrialization with commoditiza-
tion of labour. The second took place during the
Employment relationships twentieth century, when there was a shift towards
in a changing world the regulation of labour’s commodity status in
order to restrict the impact of market forces. The
It is important to establish, at the onset, that third is manifest in the current deregulation, in
there is no predetermined future for the world which labour is governed by market rules that
of work and there are choices, some of which become more and more influential.

13.  See http://www.ilo.org/global/topics/future-of-work/WCMS_541636/lang--en/index.htm for the online discussion.

16
Should governments do more to regulate
non-standard forms of employment?

82% YES
10% NO
8%
NOT SURE

An overwhelming 82 per cent responded that there is a need to regulate


non-standard forms of employment, which would require effective national
regulation. This is because the employment relationship will continue to be
important in the future and it is necessary to address the rights of workers
in all forms of employment.

In this context, the key challenge for the rights; on the contrary, in the absence of any
employment relationship is how to reduce the regulatory system, there is a need to build the
impact of marketization. There is a need to appropriate regulatory frameworks.
examine whether what we actually require is a
system of new mechanisms or simply to redis- In order to ensure the protection of workers,
cover old mechanisms to link work, consump- there could be a move to establish state-funded
tion and social welfare. What will emerge if regimes that go beyond the employment rela-
traditional employment relationships disappear? tionship and provide protection to all those who
Although there is a move towards deregula- work. One possible solution is citizens’ income,
tion, there is potential for the revitalization of as discussed earlier, but there are questions
old instruments. For example, labour inspection regarding whether it is economically affordable,
has been reinventing itself to play a new role, socially just and politically feasible. Despite
as is the case in Latin America. This could be these reservations, it is important to recognize
adapted to a form of “regulatory acupuncture”, that this option offers one way of dealing with
which is a strategy to select critical areas where the commodification of labour and the reduc-
pressure can be applied, for instance in GSCs. tion of market forces. The alternative is to have
At the same time, if labour is treated as a com- a rights-based regime, but inescapable ques-
modity, then, following Polanyi, society could tions arise about who would define the rights,
see a “countermovement”, which could take a and how they would be defined and interpreted.
variety of forms. In this regard, we could ana- Some might be sceptical of this idea, since it
lyse whether the current populist upsurge in the could be considered to give too much power to
world might be a Polanyi type of response. judges, as was observed in the European Court
of Justice. It should be acknowledged, notwith-
It should also be borne in mind that the world standing, that it ought to be possible to include
is diverse and change is never isolated. While within the coverage of social protection those
informalization of labour can be an issue in who are outside the employment relationship.
some parts of the world, in others more than
50 per cent of workers are own-account and Innovative approaches for protecting
unpaid family workers, the majority of whom are informal and non-standard workers
among the ranks of the precariously employed.
In the garment industry (e.g. in GSCs), workers The past decade has seen some progress towards
are sometimes forced to become home-based evolving a rights-based approach to social pro-
workers, without any labour regulations to pro- tection. Indeed, there is no other way, apart from
tect them. While they are statistically captured as the formalization of the informal economy, even
own-account workers, their household members, though it will be difficult. When non-standard
who contribute to production as unpaid family forms of employment become the norm, it is
workers, are neither accounted for nor protected. imperative to reflect on the framework within
In developing countries, there is no erosion of which such employment will be governed. There

17
are some innovative initiatives on private govern- occupational safety and health as formerly, and
ance, such as the recently adopted legislation in how these institutions should evolve to meet the
France, which obliges large employers to report challenges of the new workplace.
on due diligence with respect to human rights
in GSCs. Similarly, during Brazil’s carnival, pre- The social partners agreed that it was essen-
carious/temporary workers on very short-term tial that all changes should be carried out within
service contracts were provided with basic the framework of social dialogue, and that the
guarantees through the negotiation of a com- representativity of social partners should be
mercial contract, where a semi-legal approach considered. Representativity has to be broad-
was adopted, without formalizing the work. In ened to incorporate transnational companies
addition, there is a need to reassess the limits and unregu­lated or informal workers within the
of private governance, such as corporate social social dialogue. At the same time, it is essential
responsibility and corporate codes of conduct, to ensure that the employer is clearly defined
and to see how it can complement rather than and cannot vanish behind intermediaries.
replace public governance. Unions need to adapt to the new challenges
and cannot rely on what has been achieved so
However, it is important to acknowledge that far. There could be other new forms of organ-
the so-called standard employment relation- izing, which would benefit both the workers and
ship represents only 29 per cent of the working the employers, and where the dialogue is more
population. In addition, there are significant democratized. Such initiatives are already under
challenges involved in discussing informality, way – examples include the self-employed who
societal change, automation, the gig economy, organize around certain trades, or young people
and demographic and migration changes. Some who use social media to voice their concerns and
of the new forms of employment, such as the desires. The digital economy could be helpful in
sharing economy, also present challenges with organizing and reaching out to workers, but it
respect to defining the employer, as work and is equally important that the leading companies
services are provided across borders and are dif- are engaged in a dialogue with the ILO. It is also
ficult to monitor and control. It is hard to foresee crucial that European models of social dialogue
how the situation will evolve as there is currently are replicated in developing countries, taking
insufficient comparative data to understand the the national contexts into consideration.
new processes that are taking place.
There is also a need to think more deeply about
The expectation that governments should do how to make societies more inclusive, and to look
more does not mean that there should be an at employment in a broader context and make
increase in regulatory bureaucracies but “regu- social dialogue more comprehensive. Frameworks
latory acupuncture”. From a governance per- must be developed that create a process to
spective, government actors, such as judges, allow different actors to negotiate and take into
labour inspectors and health and safety research account specific problems in different sectors.
institutes and inspectors, could act as a bridge New methods for consultation are being devel-
to other actors in creating innovative solutions. oped by trade unions and there is evidence of
an increased collaboration with civil society. For
Social dialogue is key to shaping example, the Bangladesh Accord on Fire and
the future of work Building Safety, aligned after the Rana Plaza
tragedy, is a binding agreement that includes two
Regulation should also be improved at the level global trade unions, more than 2,000 brands,
of the workplace, where several contract sta- including the largest clothing companies in the
tuses coexist and create stress among workers. world, and Bangladeshi trade unions, among
There is also an erosion of labour relations in others. The agreement requires the brands to
the workplace and a trend towards individualiza- inspect and remediate hazards in occupational
tion, which harms the governance of the world safety and health and it affects more than 2 mil-
of work. The question is whether, in current con- lion workers. In the United States, health care was
ditions, it is still conceivable to organize social traditionally linked to the employment relation-
dialogue, social peace and provide guarantees of ship, so new forms of non-standard employment

18
What would be the most effective form of support
that would strengthen social dialogue in the future?

38% 26% 25% 11%


Innovative Regulatory Support from Other
methods support civil society

In response to the interactive poll question: “What would be the most effective
form of support that would strengthen social dialogue in the future?”, a size-
able proportion of respondents replied that the solution lay in innovative
methods (38 per cent), followed by regulatory support (26 per cent) and
support from civil society (25 per cent).

pose a challenge to the existing system. There is to the world of work. It is important to rethink
a need to change the former way of thinking and how to provide universal health care for all those
to give more consideration to social solidarity. in work, and not necessarily just for those in
employment. However, we cannot ignore the fact
A shift from the relationship between the employer that it could be difficult to dismantle institutions
and the employee towards a stronger relationship and make new ones, and we should be careful
between the citizen and the state would also help when deciding what to abolish and what to keep
people in moving from the world of employment and/or reinvent.

Conclusions and the way forward


Summing up the event, ILO Director-General Nile valley as well and we haven’t yet embraced
Guy Ryder said that the future of work must be that universality”. There has been talk about the
inspired by considerations of humanity, social paradigm change, about how to move towards
justice and peace. Despite the enormity and a new way of thinking about how we deal with
complexity of the issue, he said it is important work, what could be the new institutions or new
to talk about the future of work, the future of categories of work, and we now need to trans-
our societies and the economic possibilities of form our thinking into results, into concrete out-
our grandchildren. We need to develop a genu- comes. We need to address the concerns of that
inely global perspective on the future of work, young unemployed Bosnian, wondering if there
which addresses the needs and realities of all
is a future of work for them. Finally, the Director-
member States, and not let our discussions be
General remarked that social dialogue is the key
skewed towards one particular region or another.
to shaping the future of work, and that it needs
He emphasized that “this is a debate that has to to be strengthened and improved, to accord with
make sense not only in Silicon Valley, but in the the changing circumstances of the world.

19

Potrebbero piacerti anche