Date: 11/22/18 Time: 16:19

Sample (adjusted): 1993 2015

Included observations: 23 after adjustments
Trend assumption: No deterministic trend
Series: LCRIME GDP
Lags interval (in first differences): 1 to 1

Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace)

Hypothesized Trace 0.05

No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**

None * 0.430025 17.28712 12.32090 0.0068

At most 1 * 0.172587 4.357381 4.129906 0.0437

Trace test indicates 2 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level

* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values

Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Maximum Eigenvalue)

Hypothesized Max-Eigen 0.05

No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**

None * 0.430025 12.92973 11.22480 0.0249

At most 1 * 0.172587 4.357381 4.129906 0.0437

Max-eigenvalue test indicates 2 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level

* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values

Unrestricted Cointegrating Coefficients (normalized by b'*S11*b=I):

LCRIME GDP
-0.117368 0.005022
0.235406 -0.003036

Unrestricted Adjustment Coefficients (alpha):

D(LCRIME) 0.006815 -0.010336

D(GDP) 14.89033 2.756339

1 Cointegrating Equation(s): Log likelihood -48.32116

Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)

LCRIME GDP
1.000000 -0.042792
(0.00689)

Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses)

D(LCRIME) -0.000800
(0.00068)
D(GDP) -1.747652
(0.48243)
Date: 11/22/18 Time: 16:27
Sample (adjusted): 1993 2015
Included observations: 23 after adjustments
Trend assumption: No deterministic trend
Series: LCRIME HDI
Lags interval (in first differences): 1 to 1

Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace)

Hypothesized Trace 0.05

No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**

None * 0.449180 23.28421 12.32090 0.0005

At most 1 * 0.340326 9.568231 4.129906 0.0023

Trace test indicates 2 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level

* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values

Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Maximum Eigenvalue)

Hypothesized Max-Eigen 0.05

No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**

None * 0.449180 13.71597 11.22480 0.0179

At most 1 * 0.340326 9.568231 4.129906 0.0023

Max-eigenvalue test indicates 2 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level

* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values

Unrestricted Cointegrating Coefficients (normalized by b'*S11*b=I):

LCRIME HDI
-0.104237 -0.056789
0.940441 -0.297774

Unrestricted Adjustment Coefficients (alpha):

D(LCRIME) 0.006553 -0.016455

D(HDI) -0.164387 -0.023139

1 Cointegrating Equation(s): Log likelihood 54.72395

Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)

LCRIME HDI
1.000000 0.544809
(0.21201)

Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses)

D(LCRIME) -0.000683
(0.00068)
D(HDI) 0.017135
(0.00434)
Date: 11/22/18 Time: 16:28
Sample (adjusted): 1993 2015
Included observations: 23 after adjustments
Trend assumption: No deterministic trend
Series: LCRIME EDUCATION
Lags interval (in first differences): 1 to 1

Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace)

Hypothesized Trace 0.05

No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**

None * 0.586471 25.10220 12.32090 0.0002

At most 1 * 0.188096 4.792576 4.129906 0.0339

Trace test indicates 2 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level

* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values

Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Maximum Eigenvalue)

Hypothesized Max-Eigen 0.05

No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**

None * 0.586471 20.30962 11.22480 0.0010

At most 1 * 0.188096 4.792576 4.129906 0.0339

Max-eigenvalue test indicates 2 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level

* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values

Unrestricted Cointegrating Coefficients (normalized by b'*S11*b=I):

LCRIME EDUCATION
-0.540034 7.72E-08
0.618128 -6.69E-08

Unrestricted Adjustment Coefficients (alpha):

D(LCRIME) 0.017230 -0.009015

D(EDUCATION) 790167.8 1016437.

1 Cointegrating Equation(s): Log likelihood -313.0436

Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)

LCRIME EDUCATION
1.000000 -1.43E-07
(4.9E-09)

Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses)

D(LCRIME) -0.009305
(0.00306)
D(EDUCATION) -426717.8
(294130.)
 HDI GDP EDUCATION

HDI 1.000000 0.984529 0.954292

GDP 0.984529 1.000000 0.904380
EDUCATION 0.954292 0.904380 1.000000

Pairwise Granger Causality Tests

Date: 11/25/18 Time: 13:09
Sample: 1991 2015
Lags: 2

Null Hypothesis: Obs F-Statistic Prob.

GDPD2 does not Granger Cause LCRIME 21 0.90214 0.4254

LCRIME does not Granger Cause GDPD2 0.25768 0.7760

Pairwise Granger Causality Tests

Date: 11/25/18 Time: 13:13
Sample: 1991 2015
Lags: 2

Null Hypothesis: Obs F-Statistic Prob.

HDID2 does not Granger Cause LCRIME 21 0.15879 0.8545

LCRIME does not Granger Cause HDID2 0.18632 0.8318

Pairwise Granger Causality Tests

Date: 11/25/18 Time: 13:13
Sample: 1991 2015
Lags: 2

Null Hypothesis: Obs F-Statistic Prob.

EDUCATIOND2 does not Granger Cause LCRIME 21 1.97877 0.1706

LCRIME does not Granger Cause EDUCATIOND2 0.27070 0.7663

Date: 11/25/18
Time: 13:54
Sample: 1991 2015

LCRIME HDI EDUCATION GDP

Mean 14.48258 52.26800 1.23E+08 978.5392

Median 14.39231 51.70000 1.26E+08 850.2933
Maximum 14.89711 62.70000 1.41E+08 1758.838
Minimum 14.30405 43.20000 99118320 530.8947
Std. Dev. 0.175331 6.043572 14692518 375.3975
Skewness 1.122406 0.177885 -0.116749 0.622504
Kurtosis 3.067529 1.781715 1.355442 2.126951

Jarque-Bera 5.253895 1.677908 2.874054 2.408606

Probability 0.072299 0.432162 0.237633 0.299901

Sum 362.0645 1306.700 3.08E+09 24463.48

Sum Sq. Dev. 0.737785 876.5944 5.18E+15 3382159.

Observations 25 25 25 25
Heteroskedasticity Test: Glejser

F-statistic 2.050639 Prob. F(3,21) 0.1375

Obs*R-squared 5.664350 Prob. Chi-Square(3) 0.1291
Scaled explained SS 4.641940 Prob. Chi-Square(3) 0.2000

Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: ARESID
Method: Least Squares
Date: 11/25/18 Time: 13:57
Sample: 1991 2015
Included observations: 25

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C -0.006729 0.103300 -0.065143 0.9487

HDI -0.000668 0.004090 -0.163214 0.8719
EDUCATION 3.73E-10 6.91E-10 0.539434 0.5953
GDP 1.15E-05 4.61E-05 0.248936 0.8058

R-squared 0.226574 Mean dependent var 0.015493

Adjusted R-squared 0.116085 S.D. dependent var 0.011718
S.E. of regression 0.011017 Akaike info criterion -6.033052
Sum squared resid 0.002549 Schwarz criterion -5.838031
Log likelihood 79.41314 Hannan-Quinn criter. -5.978961
F-statistic 2.050639 Durbin-Watson stat 2.693903
Prob(F-statistic) 0.137527