Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
Housing Market
Update
Monthly Sales and
Price Statistics
August 2019
Sales
Sales dip slightly from July,
but remain above 400k
700,000 California, August 2019 Sales: 406,100 Units, -4.1% YTD, 1.6% YTY
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
-
May-06
May-08
May-10
May-12
May-14
May-16
May-18
Jan-05
Sep-05
Jan-07
Sep-07
Jan-09
Sep-09
Jan-11
Jan-13
Sep-13
Jan-15
Sep-15
Jan-17
Sep-17
Jan-19
Sep-11
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
3
California home sales have the first back-to
back yearly gain since April 2018
25% Year-over-Year % Chg 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Year-over-Year % Chg)
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18
10%
YoY % chg.
0%
-3.8%
-10%
-20%
-30%
May-10
May-11
May-12
May-13
May-14
May-15
May-16
May-17
May-18
May-19
Jan-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Sep-16
Jan-17
Sep-17
Jan-18
Sep-18
Jan-19
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
5
So. California sales
fall back slightly
So CA 6 per. Mov. Avg. (So CA)
40%
30%
20%
YoY % chg.
10%
0% -0.4%
-10%
-20%
-30%
Jan-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Sep-16
Jan-17
Sep-17
Jan-18
Sep-18
Jan-19
May-10
May-11
May-12
May-13
May-14
May-15
May-16
May-17
May-18
May-19
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
6
Central Valley sales slowed
after solid increase in July
30% Central Valley 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Central Valley)
20%
10%
YoY % chg.
0%
-2.3%
-10%
-20%
-30%
May-10
May-11
May-12
May-13
May-14
May-15
May-16
May-17
May-18
May-19
Jan-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Sep-16
Jan-17
Sep-17
Jan-18
Sep-18
Jan-19
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
7
Sales constrained by tight supply, particularly
at the low end
August 2019 (YTY% Chg.) Share by Price Segment
0% 10% 20% 30%
10% 6.6%
5% 2.9% 3.1% $0 - $299k 12.5%
1.5%
0% $300 - $399k 15.8%
-5% -2.3% $400 - $499k 14.0%
-10% -6.6%
$500 - $749k 25.6%
-15%
-15.0% $750 - $999k 12.2%
-20%
$1,000 - $1,999k 12.4%
$2,000k+ 3.5%
S.F. Bay
Southern
Area
California
19%
46%
5% 4.4%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
page
SERIES: Percent Change in Pending Sales 10
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Price
California median price
reached an all-time high
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
May-10
Sep-05
Sep-07
Sep-09
Sep-11
Sep-13
Sep-15
Sep-17
Jan-05
May-06
Jan-07
May-08
Jan-09
Jan-11
May-12
Jan-13
May-14
Jan-15
May-16
Jan-17
May-18
Jan-19
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condo/Townhomes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
13
Condo/Townhome median price was
virtually unchanged from last year
$600,000 California, August 2018: $470,000, August 2019: $468,000
$500,000
Median Price
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000
$0
Mar-13
Feb-09
Apr-10
Feb-16
Apr-17
Jan-05
Aug-05
Mar-06
Oct-06
Sep-09
Sep-16
May-07
Nov-10
Dec-07
Jul-08
Jun-11
Jan-12
Aug-12
Oct-13
May-14
Nov-17
Jun-18
Jan-19
Aug-19
Dec-14
Jul-15
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condos/Townhomes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
14
Price/Square Foot slightly down
from last month and inched up from last year
$400
August 2019: $287, -1.0% MTM, 1.4% YTY
$350
PRICE PER SQ. FT.
$300
$250
$200
$150
$100
$50
$0
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jul-19
SERIES: Median Price Per Square Feet of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
15
Sales price-to-list Price ratio dipped slightly
as market ended its peak season
August 2019: 98.7%, -0.3% MTM, -0.2% YTY
100%
Sales-to-List Price Ratio
98%
96%
94%
92%
90%
Jul-17
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-18
Jul-19
SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
16
Top percentile saw decline in price growth
YTY% Chg.
5%
3%
0%
2% -5%
1% -10%
May-18
Jan-16
Sep-16
Jan-17
Sep-17
Jan-18
Sep-18
Jan-19
May-16
May-17
May-19
0%
Jan-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Sep-16
Jan-17
Sep-17
Jan-18
Sep-18
Jan-19
May-15
May-16
May-17
May-18
May-19
Price Growth Mortgage Pmt Growth
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10% -7.35%
Jan-16
Mar-16
Jul-16
Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Mar-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
Mar-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
Jul-19
May-16
May-17
May-18
May-19
Price Growth Mortgage Pmt Growth
SERIES: Price Growth vs. Mortgage Payment Growth page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
19
Growth of list price vs. sales price
40%
Listing Price Sales Price
30%
YTY% Chg. in Price
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Jan-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Sep-16
Jan-17
Sep-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
May-12
May-13
May-14
May-15
May-16
May-17
May-18
May-19
Sep-18
SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
20
Market Velocity
100.0%
150.0%
-150.0%
-100.0%
-50.0%
0.0%
50.0%
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Price Growth
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Market Velocity (6 month trailing average)
Mar-17
Jun-17
Sep-17
California Market Velocity and Price Growth
Dec-17
Mar-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
Market Velocity
-50.0%
-40.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
-30.0%
21
August 2019
Active Listing
20%
10.8%
10%
4.5%
0%
-3.8%
-10%
-8.9%
-14.3% -12.8%
-20% -17.5%
9.0
8.0 Bay Area So CA Central Valley
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.3
3.0 2.8
2.0 2.5
1.0
0.0
Jul-12
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Jul-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
25
Inventory Index Highest in Millions
Aug-18 Aug-19
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-8.9%
-20%
Jul-16
Mar-15
Mar-16
Mar-17
Mar-18
Mar-19
May-15
Jul-15
Nov-15
May-16
Nov-16
May-18
Jul-18
Nov-18
Jan-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Sep-16
May-17
Jul-17
Nov-17
Jan-17
Sep-17
Jan-18
Sep-18
May-19
Jul-19
Jan-19
SERIES: Active Listing of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
27
Active listings decreased in all regions except
the Bay Area
Aug-18 Aug-19
35,000 32,007
30,000 27,577
Active Listings
25,000
20,000
15,000 12,395
10,560
10,000 7,697 7,720
5,000 2,854 2,845
0
San Francisco Bay Southern California Central Valley Central Coast
Area
0.3%
0%
-0.4% -0.3%
-3.8% -2.3%
-6.4%
-10%
-13.8% -14.8%
-20%
San Francisco Bay Southern California Central Valley Central Coast
Area
2018 2019
50
40
30
20
10
0
May-06
Jan-05
Sep-05
Jan-07
Sep-07
Jan-09
Sep-09
Jan-11
Sep-11
Jan-13
Sep-13
Jan-15
Sep-15
Jan-17
Sep-17
Jan-19
May-08
May-10
May-12
May-14
May-16
May-18
SERIES: Median Time of Market of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
32
Median time on market up in most percentiles
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
May-12
May-17
Jun-09
Apr-10
Aug-13
Jun-14
Apr-15
Aug-18
Jun-19
Jan-09
Nov-09
Jul-11
Sep-10
Dec-11
Oct-12
Mar-13
Jan-14
Nov-14
Jul-16
Sep-15
Feb-16
Dec-16
Oct-17
Mar-18
Jan-19
Feb-11
Share of Listings with a Reduced Price: 41.0%; Median Reduction Amount: -4.3%
50% 0%
45% -1%
40% -2%
35% -3%
30% -4%
25% -5%
20% -6%
15% -7%
10% -8%
5% -9%
0% -10%
9/1/2012
5/1/2016
1/1/2010
5/1/2010
9/1/2010
1/1/2011
5/1/2011
9/1/2011
1/1/2012
5/1/2012
1/1/2013
5/1/2013
9/1/2013
1/1/2014
5/1/2014
9/1/2014
1/1/2015
5/1/2015
9/1/2015
1/1/2016
9/1/2016
1/1/2017
5/1/2017
9/1/2017
1/1/2018
5/1/2018
9/1/2018
1/1/2019
5/1/2019
Share Reduced Median Reduction
SERIES: Listing Price of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
36
Growth in Reduced-Price Listings
1/1/2017
7/1/2018
1/1/2015
3/1/2015
5/1/2015
7/1/2015
9/1/2015
1/1/2016
3/1/2016
5/1/2016
7/1/2016
9/1/2016
3/1/2017
5/1/2017
7/1/2017
9/1/2017
1/1/2018
3/1/2018
5/1/2018
9/1/2018
1/1/2019
3/1/2019
5/1/2019
7/1/2019
11/1/2015
11/1/2016
11/1/2017
11/1/2018
Share Reduced Median Reduction