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Alexandre Cerqueira
Business Development Manager, Shell Energy
1913 Activities
begin with the 1997
Anglo-Mexican Acquisition of
Petroleum Products interest in Comgas
27 agreements
Some images courtesy of Petrobras
Operator in19
projects
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc
on stream YE 2018
October 2016 4
March 2018
SHELL BRASIL PORTFOLIO
Pipeline Name:
Gas Export Pipeline - BC10
BC-10 – Parque das Conchas (50%*)
Trading (100%) FPSO Espírito Santo
November 2018 Lubricants (100%)
Pipeline Name:
Under Development
BM-S-9 – Lapa (30%) Oil Pipeline
1 FPSO on stream: Cidade de Caraguatatuba
Pipeline Name: Lula -
Mexilhão (Rota1)
Shell: 25% Gas Pipeline
According to the World Over a billion people continue As per IEA, it is expected The world currently emits The World Health
Bank, global population is to live without electricity while that renewable energy could 32 billion tonnes of Organization (WHO) has
expected to increase from another billion struggle with increase significantly by energy-related CO2 each found that outdoor air
around 7 billion today to unreliable supplies of electricity. 2040. However, we will still year. To limit the rise in pollution in both cities and
over 9 billion by 2050, According to the International need large amounts of oil global temperature to 2°C, rural areas is estimated to
with 66% living in cities. Energy Agency (IEA) New and gas to provide the full the IEA has calculated that cause some 3 million
Policies Scenario, global range of energy products energy related CO2 premature deaths a year
energy demand is expected to that the world needs. emissions need to fall to worldwide.
grow by 30% between 2015 around 18 billion tonnes a
and 2040. year by 2040.
Global energy demand growth by fuel Global gas demand growth by sector Global gas demand growth by region
BCM BCM BCM
20,000 5,000 5,000 13%
20% 7% 2%
10% 7% 6% 14%
27% 33%
18% 14%
46% 45% 38%
16,000 4,000 4,000
0 0 0
Source: Shell interpretation of Wood Mackenzie Q4 2017 data CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate
6,000 BCM
5,500
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
NPS SDS Sky Mountains Ocean Woodmac IHS Markit Shell LNG Outlook Exxon BP
agreement 1,000 35
800 30
25
600
20
400
15
200
10
0
5
2015 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
Oil Biofuels 0
Natural Gas Biomass
-5
Coal Nuclear
Solar Wind -10
Other Renewables 2015
20152030
20302045 2060
2045 20752075
2060 20902090
Grounded in current energy system Deep electrification, global power CO2 emissions peak in 2020s
One of the few energy sources that can be Share of natural gas in total energy-related emissions of
air pollutants and CO2
used across all sectors of the global economy
– to generate electricity, provide heat for Particulate matter 31 Mt
Brazil - Total Primary Energy - By Source Brazil - Total Final Consumption - By Source - Total
Electricity
1,200
800 Biofuels
Geothermal
Oil
15 Biomass -
600
Wind
Traditional
Biomass & Solar
Waste
10 Biofuels Nuclear
400
Hydro- Biomass / Waste Solids
electricity
Nuclear Biomass Gasified
5 200
Natural Gas
Coal
Hydro-electricity
Natural Gas 0
0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
Year
Source: Shell Sky Scenario
Year
SXB Energy - Shell WEM v2.10.12 - Sky - Brazil special V5 SXB Energy - Shell WEM v2.9.10 - EPTS17 - Scenario Release (2040)
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 11
Production forecasts¹
Domestic supply²
90
PDE
IBP Base Scenario
80
IBP Conservative Scenario
IBP Optimistic Scenario
70
MMm³/d
Historical3
60
50
40
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 PDE Scenario until 2026 (Ten-year Energy Expansion Plan)
² It considers
Copyright both
of Royal Dutch integrated
Shell and isolated systems, without taking into account imports of natural gas (Bolivia and LNG).
plc Source: IBP
Integrated Gas Value Proposition
Pipeline Gas
2. Monetize via energy
supply to domestic markets.
1. Help MRH deliver new
upstream gas developments. 3. Monetize via transport &
export to new markets.
Petrochemicals
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc
EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT CREATING MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR GAS AND LNG
Increasing recognition of EU policies supporting Policies favour gas and Policymakers targeting
environmental benefits coal phase out renewables air quality
G20 endorses the role of More than 10 countries China reforms gas market to Berlin closes local coal-fired
natural gas in energy announce coal phase-out increase competitiveness of power plants to improve air
transition ambitions - 25% of coal delivered gas quality
power capacity in EU
IEA credits levelling of global South Korea’s 8th Basic Plan for Beijing meets ambitious
CO2 emissions to coal EU confirms reforms to Energy prioritises renewables 2017 air quality targets,
displacement strengthen EU Emissions and gas, while not sanctioning supported by coal to gas
Trading Scheme new nuclear and coal switching
Access to essential infrastructures: gathering ppls, processing and regas plants – mandatory vs negotiated
Unbundling in Transportation segment – complete, partial, exit from existing?
Organisation and tariff system for the Transportation segment – from point to point to entry/exit, ISO
Definition and reach of the Distribution segment – public service tariff or tribute, specificity vs by-pass
Regulation on Free Consumers, Self-Importers and Self-Producers – State vs Federal
Once the Law passes, there will be considerable effort for definition and issuance of required regulation thereafter
Shell.com/roleofnaturalgas
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 19