CHAPTER 2

TRANSPORTATION
PLANNING AND
FORECASTING

1
Topic Outlines

2.1 Basic Elements of Transportation Planning

2.2 Forecast of Future Travel Demand:

- Trip Generation

- Trip Distribution

- Model Choice
- Trip Assignment

2.3 Transportation System Management

2
Learning Outcomes

At the end of this chapter, students should be able to:

1. Forecast future trip generated, the distribution, mode choice

and assignment

2. Describe potential transportation system management

3
 TOPIC 2.1
Basic Elements of
Transportation Planning

4
Transportation Planning

Transportation planning is a process that intents to furnish

unbiased information about the effects that the proposed
transportation project will have on the community and its
expected users.

Factors that may justify a transportation project:

- improvements in traffic flow & safety
- energy consumption
- travel time
- economic growth
- accessibility

5
Cont.

The transportation planning process comprises 7 basic elements.

They are interrelated and not necessarily carried out sequentially.

The elements of the process are:

1. Situation definition
2. Problem definition
3. Search for solutions
4. Analysis of performance
5. Evaluation of alternatives
6. Choice of project
7. Specification and construction

6
Transportation Planning Process of a New Bridge (pg.585)

7
Transportation Planning Process: Elements

Elements Description
Preliminary studies to understand the situation that
Situation Definition
caused the need for transportation improvement.

To describe the problem in terms of objectives &

translate objectives into criteria that can be
quantified.
Problem Definition
Objectives: statements of purpose, etc. Reduce
traffic congestion
Criteria: measures of effectiveness, etc. Travel time

Search for Solutions Brainstorming stage, many options (variety of ideas,

designs, locations, system configurations) may be
proposed for further testing and evaluation.

8
Transportation Planning Process: Elements (cont.)

Elements Description

To estimate how each proposed alternatives would

Analysis of Performance
perform under present and future conditions.

To determined how well each alternative will achieve

Evaluation of Alternatives the objectives as defined by the criteria
(Including cost-benefit analysis)

Decision to proceed with one of the alternatives.

Choice of Project Project selection after considering all factors involved.
evaluation

Produced detailed design (each of the components of

Specification & the facility is specified: physical location, geometric
Construction dimensions, structural configuration) → contractors to
estimate cost → built.
9
Urban Transportation Planning

• Urban transportation planning involves the evaluation and

selection of highway or transit facilities to serve present and future
land uses.

• For example, the construction of a new shopping center/airport/

convention center will require additional transportation services.

• Also, new residential development, office space, industrial parks will

generate additional traffic - require the creation/expansion of roads &
transit services.

• The process must also consider other proposed developments and

improvements that will occur within the planning period

10
Cont.

Urban transportation planning is concerned with 2 separate time

horizons:

Short-term projects (one to four years period)

– to provide better management of existing facilities by making them as
efficient as possible
– traffic signal timing to improve flow, car pooling to reduce congestion,
transit improvements

Long-term projects (>20 years)

– adding new highway elements, additional bus lines or freeway lanes,
rapid transit systems or access roads to airports or malls.

11
12
Cont.
Establish goals – identify deficiencies of existing system & what is the
desired improvement.
1. Population-Economic activity:
 Age, sex & composition of the family

 Employment statistics

 Income

 Vehicle ownership

 Home interview surveys

The population data helps in the estimation of future trip-making behaviors.

2. Land-use:
Travel characteristics are closely related to land-use pattern.
Classified into land-use activity such as:
i. Residential
ii. Industrial
iii. Commercial
iv. Recreational, etc.
13
Cont.

3. Transportation – facilities & usage

To identify the deficiencies in the present system & the extent to
which they need to be improved.
Consists of;
i. Inventory of streets forming transportation network
ii. Traffic volume, composition, peak & off-peak
iii. Studies on travel time by diff modes
iv. Inventory of rail transportation facilities – capacity, schedule, station, etc.
v. Parking inventory – parking demand, charging implementation
vi. Inventory of public transportation – buses route, fare, terminals, capacity,
schedules, reliability, etc.
vii. Accident data – hazard location – improve the situation

14
Cont.

Travel patterns & surveys

Identify:
i. Where & when trips begin / end
ii. Trip purpose
iii. Mode of travel
iv. Social & economic characteristics of trip maker

4 general classifications of travel surveys:

i. Household travel surveys → home interview, telephone, mail surveys
ii. Roadside surveys
iii. Model surveys
iv. Goods movement surveys

15
 TOPIC 2.2
Forecast of Future
Travel Demand

16
Introduction
Travel demand is expressed as the number of persons or vehicles
per unit time that can be expected to travel on a given segment of
a transportation system under a set of given land-use, socioeconomic and
environmental conditions.

Forecasts of travel demand are used to establish the vehicular volume on

future modified transportation system alternatives

The methods used in forecasting demand will depend on

- availability of data
- specific constraints: availability of funds & project schedules

17
Factors Affecting Travel Demand

THREE (3) Factors:

1. The location & intensity of land use
2. The socioeconomic characteristics of people living in the area
3. The extent, cost, & quality of available transportation services

18
Travel Forecasting Process

The process predicts what will happen to the transportation

system in the future under hypothetical conditions.

The land use, population and economic activity are estimated

for the forecast year

Urban transportation forecasting process is carried out to analyze the

performance of various alternatives.

There are four basic elements:

i. Data collection / inventories
ii. Analysis of existing conditions and calibration of forecasting techniques
iii. Forecast of future travel demand
iv. Analysis of the results

19
Cont.

• Prior to data collection, it is necessary to delineate the study

area boundaries and further subdivide the area into traffic
zones (TAZ).

• Criteria to select these zones:

- Socioeconomic characteristics should be homogeneous.
- Intrazonal trips should be minimized.
- Physical, political and historical boundaries should be utilized where
possible.
- Zones should not be created within other zones.
- The zone system should generate and attract approximately equal
trips, households, population or area.
- Zones should use census tract boundaries where possible.
20
Cont.

Steps to be taken before 4-step model

Step 1: Population & economic analysis: determines the magnitude &

extent of activity in the urban area

Step 2: Land use analysis: determines where the activities will be located

21
Four Step Process

22
Four Step Model

Trip Generation (the number of trips to be made)

Trip Distribution (where those trips go)

Modal Split (how the trips will be divided among the

available modes of travel)

Trip Assignment (predicting the route trips will take)

23
How many trips will people
make?

Where will jobs & people

locate?

How will people travel?

What routes will people take?

i = origin
j = destination

24
1. Trip Generation

The decision to travel for a given purpose is called trip generation.

The process of determining the number of trips that will begin or end in
each traffic analysis zone within a study area.

The trips are referred to as trip ends (determine without regard to

destination).

Each trip has two ends (described in terms of trip purpose): trips are
either produced by a traffic zone or attracted to a traffic zone.

25
Cont.

A Trip is a one-way person / vehicular movement having a single

purpose and mode of travel between appoint of origin and
destination.

Trip Production

• Household Size, Household Structure, Income, Car Ownership,

Residential Density, Accessibility

Trip Attractions

• Land-use and Employment by Category (e.g. Industrial, Commercial,

Services), Accessibility

26
Cont.

Example:
a home to work trip would be considered to have a trip end
produced in the home zone & attracted to the work zone

Trip generation analysis has two functions:

1. to develop a relationship between trip end production or attraction
and land use.
2. to use the relationship to estimate the number of trips generated at
future (new set of land use conditions)

Common method:
• Cross classification
• Rates based on activity units
• Regression analysis

27
Cross-Classification analysis
• To determine the number of trips that begin or end at the
home (developed by FHWA).
• Home based trip generation is a useful value - represent a
significant proportion of all trips.
• The 1st step: develop a relationship between socioeconomic
measures & trip production.
• Two variables most commonly used: average income & auto
ownership. Other variables: household size
• The relationships are developed based on income data and
results of O-D surveys.
• Ex. 12.1& 12.2 (pp. 628)

• Analysis can be used to develop relevant trip rate if only good

data are available.
28
Multiple Regression
Multiple linear regression technique is used to formulate
equations to predict the number of trips generated.

Given the high correlations that typically exist between trip

rates and socio-economic variables.

The general form of equation:

Y = a0 + a1x1 + a2x2 + ……… + anxn

Where,
Y = Dependent variables (Trip)
x1, x2 = Independent variables relating to Y (Ex.: land use,
socio-economic factors, etc.)
a1, a2= Coefficients of the respective independent variables

29
Cont.

 In developing regression equations, it is assumed that:

1. All independent variables are independent of each other.
2. All independent variables are normally distributed & continuous
(future growth same as predicted).

 The quality of fit of regression line determined by multiple linear

regressions is indicated by the multiple correlation coefficient
(goodness of fit) represented by R2 value being between 0 and 1.

30
Multiple Regression: Example

A multiple regression analysis shows the following relationship

for the number of trips per household.

T = 0.82 + 1.3P + 2.1A

where T = number of trips per household per day

P = number of persons per household

A = number of autos per household

If a particular TAZ contains 250 households with an average of 4

persons and 2 autos for each household, determine the average
number of trips per day in that zone.

31
Solution

STEP 1: Calculate the number of trips per household

T = 0.82 + 1.3P + 2.1A

= 0.82 + 1.3(4) + 2.1(2) = 10.22 trips/household/day

STEP 2: Determine the number of trips in the entire zone.

Total trips = 250 (10.22) = 2555 trips/day

32
Rates Based on Activity Units

 Productions = Trips generated at the household end

 Attractions = Trips attracted to zones for purposes such

as work, shopping, visiting friends, & medical trips

 Trip generation rates for attraction zones can be

determined from survey data or are tabulated in some of
the reference sources.

33
Rate Based on Activity Units: Example

A commercial center in the downtown contains several retail

establishments and light industries. Employed at the center are 220 retail
and 650 nonretail workers. Determine the number of trips per day
attracted to this zone.

34
Rate Based on Activity Units: Solution

Use the trip generation rates listed in Table:

 HBW: (220 x 1.7) + (650 x 1.7) = 1479
 HBO: (220 x 5.0) + (650 x 2.0) = 2400
 NHB: (220 x 3.0) + (650 x 1.0) = 1310
Total = 5189 trips/day

*home-based work (HBW), home-based other (HBO), non home-based (NHB)

35
2. Trip Distribution

 A process by which the trips generated in one zone are

allocated to other zones in the study area.

 Trips may be within the study area (internal - internal, ex:Zone 1 -

Zone 1) or between the study area and areas outside the study area
(internal - external, ex:Zone 1 - Zone 2).

36
Cont.

Methods:

1. Growth Factor Model

2. Gravity Model

Assumptions:

1. Number of trips decrease with COST between zones

2. Number of trips increase with zone “attractiveness”

37
Trip Matrix

38
1. Growth Factor Model

Growth Factor Models assume that there is basic trip matrix exist

Usually obtained from a previous study or recent survey data

TAZ = Traffic Analysis Zone

39
Cont.

The goal is then to estimate the matrix at some point in the future

For example, what would the trip matrix look like in 2 years time?

Trip Matrix, t Trip Matrix, T

(2008) (2018)

40
Uniform Growth Factor

If we assume τ = 1.2 (growth rate), then…

Trip Matrix, t
(2008)

Tij = τ tij
= (1.2)(5)
=6
Trip Matrix, T
(2018)
41
 2. Gravity Model

Expressed as:
Tij = no. of trips that are produced in zone i and attracted to zone j
Pi = total no. of trips produced in zone i
Aj = no. of trips attracted to zone j
Fij = a value which is an inverse functions of travel time
Kij = socioeconomic adjustment factor for interchange ij

42
Example 1: Gravity Model

The number of work trip in and attracted to three zones 1, 2, 3 are

as under

Zone 1 2 3 Total

Pi 14 33 28 75

Aj 33 28 14 75

Pi = Trips Produced
Aj = Trips Attracted 43
 Friction factor

Zone 1 2 3

1 13 82 41

2 50 26 39

3 50 20 41

44
 Modified Equation

45

Source: Prof. Dr. V. Thamizh Arasan, Department of Civil Engineering Indian Institute of Technology, Madras
1st iteration: CALCULATION

T11 = 14 x 33 x 13 = 1.82
(33x13) + (28x82) + (14x41)

T12 = 14 x 28 x 82 = 9.74
(33x13) + (28x82) + (14x41)

T13 = 14 x 14 x 41 = 2.44
(33x13) + (28x82) + (14x41)

46
1st iteration: CALCULATION

T21 = 33 x 33 x 50 = 18.62
(33x50) + (28x26) + (14x39)

T22 = 33 x 28 x 26 = 8.22
(33x50) + (28x26) + (14x39)

T23 = 33 x 14 x 39 = 6.16
(33x50) + (28x26) + (14x39)

47
1st iteration: CALCULATION

T31 = 28 x 33 x 50 = 16.59
(33x50) + (28x20) + (14x41)

T32 = 28 x 28 x 20 = 5.63
(33x50) + (28x20) + (14x41)

T33 = 28 x 14 x 41 = 5.77
(33x50) + (28x20) + (14x41)

48
 1st iteration: RESULT

Singly constrained. The total trip productions match with the predicted
value, however the attractions do not equal with the predicted attractions.
Further iterations are necessary.
49

Source: Prof. Dr. V. Thamizh Arasan, Department of Civil Engineering Indian Institute of Technology, Madras
 2nd iteration: FORMULA

Doubly
constrained

50

Source: Prof. Dr. V. Thamizh Arasan, Department of Civil Engineering Indian Institute of Technology, Madras
 2nd iteration: Adjusted Attraction

51

Source: Prof. Dr. V. Thamizh Arasan, Department of Civil Engineering Indian Institute of Technology, Madras
 2nd iteration: CALCULATION

52

Source: Prof. Dr. V. Thamizh Arasan, Department of Civil Engineering Indian Institute of Technology, Madras
 2nd iteration: CALCULATION

53

Source: Prof. Dr. V. Thamizh Arasan, Department of Civil Engineering Indian Institute of Technology, Madras
 2nd iteration: CALCULATION

54

Source: Prof. Dr. V. Thamizh Arasan, Department of Civil Engineering Indian Institute of Technology, Madras
 2nd iteration: RESULT

55

Source: Prof. Dr. V. Thamizh Arasan, Department of Civil Engineering Indian Institute of Technology, Madras
 3rd iteration: Adjusted Attraction

56

Source: Prof. Dr. V. Thamizh Arasan, Department of Civil Engineering Indian Institute of Technology, Madras
 3rd iteration: CALCULATION

57

Source: Prof. Dr. V. Thamizh Arasan, Department of Civil Engineering Indian Institute of Technology, Madras
 3rd iteration: CALCULATION

58

Source: Prof. Dr. V. Thamizh Arasan, Department of Civil Engineering Indian Institute of Technology, Madras
 3rd iteration: CALCULATION

59

Source: Prof. Dr. V. Thamizh Arasan, Department of Civil Engineering Indian Institute of Technology, Madras
 3rd iteration: CALCULATION

60

Source: Prof. Dr. V. Thamizh Arasan, Department of Civil Engineering Indian Institute of Technology, Madras
 3rd iteration: RESULT

61

Source: Prof. Dr. V. Thamizh Arasan, Department of Civil Engineering Indian Institute of Technology, Madras
Example 2: Gravity Model

The number of productions and attractions has been

computed for each zone by methods described in the
section on trip generation, and the average travel times
between each zone have been determined. Refer table
12.8 & 12.9. Determine the number of zone to zone trips
through two iterations.

62
63
64
65
2nd iteration, Doubly constrained : RESULT

Computed Given
Zone 1 2 3
P P

1 34 68 38 140 140

2 153 112 65 330 330

3 116 88 76 280 280

Computed
303 268 179 750 750
A

Given
300 270 180 750
A
66
Fratar Method: EQUATION

Tij = (tiGi) tijGj

ΣtixGx
Tij = no. of trips estimated from zone i to zone j
ti = present trip generation in zone i
Gx = growth factor of zone x
tiGi = future trip generation in zone i
tix = no. of trips between zone i and other zones x
tij = present trip between zone i and zone j
Gj = growth factor of zone j
67
Example

68
69
ZONE tij Gj ti Gi Σ(tixGx) Tij
AB 400 1.1 1.2 446
AC 100 1.4 600 1.2 710 142
AD 100 1.3 1.2 132

BA 400 1.2 1.1 411

BC 300 1.4 700 1.1 900 359
BD -

CA 100 1.2 1.4 140

CB 300 1.1 700 1.4 840 385
CD 300 1.3 1.4 455

DA 100 1.2 1.3 116

DB - 400 540
DC 300 1.4 1.3 404
Next step: Average the Value

TAB = TAB + TBA = 446 + 411 = 428

2 2

TAC = TAC + TcA = 142 + 140 = 141

2 2

TAD = TAD + TDA = 132 + 116 = 124

2 2

TBC = TBC + TCB = 359 + 385 = 372

2 2

TCD = TCD + TDC = 455 + 404 = 430

2 2

71
Fratar method: Exercise

A small study area consists of 4 zones: Zone 1,2,3 and 4. An origin-destination

survey indicates that the number of trips between each zone is as shown in the
following table. Distribute the trips for future conditions using the FRATAR
MODEL until second iteration.
Total
Trip G in 5
Zone 1 2 3 4 Present Trip
Years
G

1 - 4 6 7 17 32
2 5 - 5 4 14 24
3 5 5 - 3 13 20
4 8 7 4 - 19 25
Total
Present Trip 18 16 15 14
A
Trip A in 5 72
Years 26 25 25 25
3. Modal Choice (Modal Split)

 determines the number/percentage of trips between zones that are

made by automobile and by transit.

 the selection of mode depends on factors such as traveler’s income,

the availability of transit service/auto ownership, & relative
advantages (travel time, cost, comfort, convenience and safety (refer
next slide)

73
Factors influencing the choice of mode

1. Characteristics of the trip maker :

(a) car availability and/or ownership

(b) possession of a driving license
(c) household structure (young couple, couple with children, retired
people etc.)
(d) income
(e) decisions made elsewhere, for example the need to use a car at
work, take children to school, etc.
(f) residential density.

74
Cont.

2. Characteristics of the journey

Mode choice is strongly influenced by:

(a) The trip purpose; for example, the journey to work is normally easier
to undertake by public transport than other journeys because of its
regularity and the adjustment possible in the long run;
(b) Time of the day when the journey is undertaken.
(c) Late trips are more difficult to accommodate by public transport.

3. Characteristics of the transport facility

There are two types of factors: quantitative and qualitative.

75
Cont.

Quantitative factors are:

(a) relative travel time: in-vehicle, waiting and walking times by each
mode
(b) relative monetary costs (fares, fuel and direct costs);
(c) availability and cost of parking

Qualitative factors which are less easy to measure are:

(a) comfort and convenience
(b) reliability and regularity
(c) protection, security

A good mode choice should include the most important of these factors.

76
Types of Mode choice models

1. Direct generation of transit trips

- by estimating either total person trips or auto driver trips

2. Use of trip end models

- determine the percentage of total person or auto trips that will use
transit
- estimation are made prior to the trip distribution phase based on land-
use or socioeconomic characteristic of the zone

3. Trip interchange modal split models

- system level of service variables are considered: relative travel time,
relative travel cost, economic status of the trip maker, relative travel
service, etc.

77
Logit Models

 An alternative approach used in transportation demand analysis:

consider the relative utility of each mode as a summation of each
modal attribute

 the choice of a mode is expressed as a probability distribution.

78
Cont.

 For example, assume that the utility of each mode is

Ux = Σ aiXi
Ux – utility function for mode x
Xi – attribute value (time, cost,and so forth)
ai – coefficient value for attributes i (negative since the values are
disutilities)

 If two modes, auto (A) and transit (T) are being considered, the
probability of selecting the auto mode A can be written as
p(A) = eUA
e UA + e UT

79
Utility Function

A utility function takes the following form

um = Bm + a1 X1 + a2 X2 + ….. ar Xr + ε0

Where
um – utility function for mode m
Bm – mode specific parameter

Xr – variables measuring modal attributes such

as cost or time of travel
ar – coefficient associated with each attribute
ε0 – error term
80
Norman W. Garrick
Multinomial Logit Model

The most common assumption is that ε, takes on Weibull Probability

Distribution, which results in the Multinomial Logit demand Model

Multinomial Logit Model

pm = eUm
Σ eUm
pm = probability that mode m is chosen

81
Logit Model: Exercise (Example 12.10)

The utility functions for auto and transit are as follows.

Auto: UA = - 0.46 - 0.35T1 - 0.08T2 - 0.005C
Transit: UT = - 0.07 - 0.05T1 - 0.15T2 - 0.005C

where T1 = total travel time (min), T2 = waiting time (min), C = cost (cents)

The travel characteristics between two zones are as follows:

82
Multinomial logit Model: Example

A market segment consists of 500 individuals. A multinomial logit

mode choice model is calibrated for this market segment, resulting
in the following utility function:

u = Bm - 0.30C - 0.02T

where C is out of pocket cost (RM), T is travel time (min).

Values of Bm are

Bus transit 0.00

Rail transit 0.40
Auto 2.00

For a particular origin-destination pair, the cost of an auto trip, which

takes 15 min is RM2.50. Rail transit trips, which take 20 min, cost
RM1.50. Bus transit takes 30 min and costs RM1.00. Predict the
number of trips by each mode from this market segment.
83
Solution

Determine utility functions:

uB = 0.00 - 0.30 (1.00) - 0.02 (30) = - 0.90

uR = 0.40 - 0.30 (1.50) - 0.02 (20) = - 0.45
uA = 2.00 - 0.30 (2.50) - 0.02 (15) = 0.95

Determine probability of each mode:

pB = e -0.90 = 0.406 = 0.112
e -0.90 + e -0.45 + e 0.95 0.406 + 0.638 + 2.586

pR = e -0.45 = 0.638 = 0.176

e -0.90 + e -0.45 + e 0.95 0.406 + 0.638 + 2.586

pA = e 0.95 = 2.586 = 0.712

e -0.90 + e -0.45 + e 0.95 0.406 + 0.638 + 2.586
84
Determine number of trips by each mode:

TB = 0.112 x 500 = 56
TR = 0.176 x 500 = 88
TA = 0.712 x 500 = 356

Total = 56 + 88 + 356 = 500 Check

85
4. Trip Assignment

 Final step in the transportation forecasting process.

 To determine the actual street/highway routes that will be used and

the no. of auto & buses that can be expected on each highway
segment.

 Traffic assignment = procedure used to determine expected traffic

volumes.

86
Data required for trip assignment:

1. number of trips that will be made from one zone to another (from
trip distribution)
2. available highway or transit routes between zones
3. how long it will take to travel on each route
4. a decision rule (or algorithm) that explains how motorists or
transit users select a route
5. external trips that were not considered in the previous trip
generation and distribution steps.

87
Trip Assignment: Method

Methods:

1. Minimum time path (all or nothing) assignment

2. Multiple route assignment

3. Diversion curve
Similar to mode choice. The traffic between 2 routes is determined as a
function of relative travel time/cost. Ex. A graph of percent travel on route B
vs. travel time ratio (time on route A/ time on route B)

4. Minimum Time Path with Capacity Restraint assignment

Is a refinement of the min. path method. After a proportion of traffic has been
assigned to a link, the travel time on each link are adjusted based on the
capacity & the number of trips on each link, the iteration goes on until all trips
have been assigned. Eg: t = to [1 + 0.15 (v/c)4]

88
Minimum time path

 Minimum Path Assignment (all-or-nothing) is based on the theory

that a motorist or transit user will select the quickest route (minimum
impedance) between any O-D pair.

 Thus, it is necessary to find the shortest route from the zone of origin
to all other destination zones → develop skim tree.

 Unrealistic → only one path between every O-D pair is utilized even
if there is another path with the same or nearly same travel
time/cost.

89
 Minimum time path: Example 1

Starting Centrod 1:
T1-20 = 3 25
T1-20-25 = 6
T1-17-19 = 5 3
19 1
T1-17 = 3 18 20 21
2
T1-20-21 = 7 3 4
T1-17-13 = 6 16 17 1
2 3
T1-20-19 = 4 3
T1-17-16 = 5
13

* Two possible routes to node 19

choose shortest time.

90
Minimum time path: Example 2

All-or-nothing:
- Simplest technique.
- Combination of many parameters.

Example:

From zone centroid To zone centroid Traffic volume (v/hr)

1 2 2500
1 3 3000
1 4 4000
91
Example 2: cont.

+4000
+3000 +3000
18 3
+4000
+3000
1 11 15 +4000
+2500
+3000 +2500
+4000
12 2
+2500

92
Example 2: cont.

Traffic volume assign to various links are;

Link Traffic Flow (v/hr)

1-11 9500
11-12 2500
12-2 2500
11-15 7000
15-18 7000
18-3 3000
18-4 4000

If overloading is found to exist, the journey times are altered &

assignment is repeated. 93
Minimum time path: Example 3
Assign the vehicle trips shown in the OD trip table to the network,
using the all-or-nothing assignment technique. Summarize your
results by list all of the links in the network and their
corresponding traffic volume after loading

1 2 3 4 5
1 - 100 100 200 150
2 400 - 200 100 500
3 200 100 - 100 150
4 250 150 300 - 400
5 200 100 50 350 -

94

http://www.webpages.uidaho.edu/niatt_labmanual/chapters/traveldemandforecasting/exampleproblems/TrafficAssignment.htm
Cont.

Time in minutes

95

http://www.webpages.uidaho.edu/niatt_labmanual/chapters/traveldemandforecasting/exampleproblems/TrafficAssignment.htm
Solution
 The all-or-nothing technique simply assumes that all of the
traffic between a particular origin and destination will take the
shortest path (with respect to time).

 For example, all of the 200 vehicles that travel between

nodes 1 and 4 will travel via nodes 1-5-4.

 The tables shown below indicate the routes that were

selected for loading as well as the total traffic volume for
each link in the system after all of the links were loaded.

96
Solution

97
Cont.

Link Volume Link Volume

1-2 200 3-2 300

2-1 600 2-4 600

1-5 350 4-2 250

5-1 450 3-4 250

2-5 0 4-3 350

5-2 0 4-5 1300

2-3 300 5-4 700

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Multipath Assignment
 Does not assume that all traffic will use the minimum path

- traffic is assigned to the various paths between the two zones

based on their relative impedance.

- the path with the minimum impedance (ex. travel time) will get the
most traffic followed by paths with higher impedance.

 This method is still limited by the fact that the impedance is based
on free flow assumptions and the impedance value is not changed
to reflex the level of traffic loading.

99
 Multipath Assignment: Example
The details of travel time and capacity of different links
of a road network is as follows.
Link Travel time (min) Practical capacity (pcu/h)

1 - 11 3 9000
11 - 15 2 7000
11 - 12 2 8000
12 - 16 4 9000
15 - 18 3 8000
16 - 20 2 7000
18 - 20 2 6000
100

Source: Prof. Dr. V. Thamizh Arasan, Department of Civil Engineering Indian Institute of Technology, Madras
Multipath Assignment: Example

Assign a traffic volume of 9000 pcu/h between nodes 1 and

20 by multiple route assignment technique. (Draw the link
diagram)

101
Solution

Two alternative routes from 1 to 20:

1. 1 – 11 – 15 – 18 – 20 = 10 min
2. 1 – 11 – 12 – 16 – 20 = 11 min

Using equation, the proportion using route (1) is

1/10 = 0.524 , hence 0.524 x 9000 = 4716 pcu/h

1/10 + 1/11

For route (2)

1/11 = 0.476 , hence 0.476 x 9000 = 4284 pcu/h

102
1/10 + 1/11
Capacity Restrained

V=volume, C=capacity, t0=free flow travel time 103

Capacity restrained: Example
In example 12.16, the volume on link 1 to 5 was 485, and the
travel time was 2 minutes. If the capacity of the link is 500,
determine the link travel time that should be used for the
next traffic assignment iteration

t = to [1 + 0.15 (v/c)4]
t1-5 = 2 [1 + 0.15 (485/500)4]
= 2.27 minutes

104
 TOPIC 2.3
Transportation System
Management

105
Introduction
Transportation systems management (TSM) is the term used to describe
the operational planning process to operate the major transportation
facilities at their most productive and efficient levels.

Some other terms associated with the TSM concept are “transportation
demand management” and “transportation supply management”.

Transportation demand management (TDM) refers to action taken to reduce

the number of vehicles on local streets and highways during peak travel
hours by encouraging commuters to share driving or change travelling
hours.

Transportation supply management focused on improving streets or

highways facilities by development of new or expanded infrastructure. Major
infrastructure improvements include civil projects such as new freeways and
road widening.

The main objective is to create more efficient use of existing facilities

through improved management and operation of vehicles and the roadway. 106
TSM: Framework
The framework of TSM:

1. Identification of present & future transportation→ collect data on

site

2. Setting goals & objectives → ex. improve safety, increase

mobility, improve road performance

3. Formulation of Alternative transportation strategies → do

something or do nothing. If more than 1 alternative, have to
formulate based on goals

4. Estimation of effects & impacts on implementing the formulated

strategies → ex: without development LOS C, with development
LOS B
107
5. Evaluation & selection of alternatives→ evaluate which
one is the best

6. Implementation

7. Monitoring the effects & impacts→ effects & impacts

toward the goal.

108
TSM: Strategy

Three basic categories of TSM strategies:

1. Creating efficient use of road space → managing

transportation supply
2. Reducing vehicle use in congested areas →
managing transportation demand / transportation
demand management (TDM) and land use
3. Provide transit service → public transport

109
TSM: Action/technique

Creating efficient use of road space:

To improve traffic flow without altering the total number of
vehicles that use the roadway. Main concern is to reduce travel
time & delay for motorists, pedestrians & transit users

1. Traffic operations improvements

2. Traffic signalization improvements
3. Improvements for pedestrians & bicycles
4. Parking management
5. Work schedule management
6. Inter modal coordination (ex: integrate different transit,
LRT, monorail, commuter)

110
Cont.

Reducing vehicle use in congested area:

To reduce vehicle-traffic volume on roadways but at the same
time increase person-traffic volume

1. Increase vehicle occupancy through car-pooling

2. Discouraging vehicle use by economic means (road
pricing)
3. Encouraging travel by means other than private
vehicle
4. Reduction of HGV traffic in congested area

111
Cont.

Provide transit service:

To increase the modal shift from private vehicles to public
transport system

1. Extension of bus services to newly developed area

2. Restructuring of bus routing system
3. Improvement of bus user facilities (bus stop, terminal)
4. Promote the use of mass transit system (LRT,
monorail)

112
End Of Chapter 2
113