EFMN CD 2007 - Steinmuller

Corporate foresight - experiences,
insights and its relation to policy foresight

Dr. Karlheinz Steinmüller
Correspondents’ day 2007

Sept. 24, 2007
Overview
• Z_punkt
• Corporate Foresight
• Examples and
Challenges
• CF and Policy
Foresight

Z_punkt The Foresight Company
1
Z_punkt – In a Nutshell
Some Facts Core Competences

• founded in 1997 • Foresight services for strategy
• located in Berlin, Essen and and innovation:
Karlsruhe from trend monitoring to scenario
• staff of about 20 employees processes
• main clients: large companies • Content provider for strategic
knowledge:
• also research activities for
Business environment,
ministries, EU-funded etc.
consumers, industries,
• networking, e. g. technologies
German Node of The UNU
• External think tank for industry
Millennium Project
partners:
creative processes,
implementation of corporate
foresight

Clients

2
Cooperations
Council for Scientific and Industrial

Research (CSIR) of South Africa
Pontifícia Universidade
Católica De São Paulo
Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences

Chinese Academy of Sciences

International Foresight Group - IFG
Germany Z_punkt GmbH The Foresight Company

> Coordinator GFG Founder and Coordinator
http://www.z-punkt.de
The Arlington Institute

North America
Non-profit research institute about global change
> USA John L. Petersen, President
Europe Finland Futures Academy

Finland Futures Research Center,
> Finland Dr. Juha Kaskinen, Director (University)
Asia Chinese Academy of Sciences

> China Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences
Prof. Ph.D Rusong Wang
Nucleo de Estudos de Futuro (NEF)

Latin-America The Pontifícia Universidade Católica de São Paulo
> Brazil (PUC SP) y University and NGO
Prof. Arnoldo José de Hoyos
Center for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR)
Africa Think Tank, private sector (Global Research Alliance), Pretoria
> South Africa Dr. Reinie Biesenbach, Centre Manager

3
Publications

Some New Foresight Tools
Trends Scenarios Innovation

Z_trenddatabase ScenLab ® Deep Innovation®
(Release 2006) (Scenario Software)
• about 240 trends • includes unique genetic • new approach for

continuously monitored algorithms for high customer-centered
• new: integration into complexities innovation
scenario processes, • automated clustering • Combines future research
weak signals and wild • collaboration tools included with customer analysis
card module • collaboration with Olson
Zaltman Assoc., Boston

4
Overview
• Z_punkt
• Examples and
Challenges
• CF and Policy
Foresight

Corporate Foresight - A Definition
CF is future studies
within businesses
• a systematic, continuous approach
• based on a broad variety of methods
• centres around medium to long-term
oriented work on strategies, visions, and
innovations
• a participatory process
(involving internal knowledge and
competence)
• integrated in strategy, innovation or
change management processes
+ Intermediary sphere: Pre-competitive studies
5
CF - On the Rise in Europe
Main trends:
• CF becomes more important and widespread
• Diverse set of methods being used and developed further
• Diverse modes of organizing corporate foresight
• Tendency to look beyond close environments (economy / technology)
• Foresight methods becoming crucial for innovation processes
But: a number of common problems of its use and

integration
Still largely “white spot” in terms of research on CF Æ

More knowledge on the state of the art of CF is needed

Corporate Foresight Toolbox

Basic Process
Monitoring Analysis Projection Transformation
Observing the Relevant
Trends
Understanding the
Drivers of Change Anticipating the Future
Deriving Business
Implications
Toolbox
Weak Signals Key Factors Scenarios s

rio P roces Strategy
Scena
Environmental Roadmaps
Emerging Issues
+ Technology Trends
New Business
Development
Future + Innovation
Consumer Trends Wild Cards Workshops
Product
Future Customer
Z_trenddatabase Context Innovation Innovation
Needs

6
CF – Aims
Businesses work with foresight in order to
1. Reduce uncertainty by identifying new

and relevant trends Innovation
2. Prepare strategic decisions
3. Support innovation processes CF
4. Develop new and future business aims
fields / markets triangle
5. Create orientation on future
developments Strategy Knowledge Base
6. Build a knowledge base
Growing awareness for the complexity of interactions

between companies and their environments and for the need
to overcome a technology-centred perspective
Issues – Shift Towards a Wider Perspective
Fields of Observation (in order of priority):
1. Technology and Innovation

2. Business & Companies
70 % of businesses deal
3. Individuals and Society
4. Environment & Nature with all 5 subject areas
5. Politics and Law
Insider’s perspective dominates
Focussing often on immediate environment (closer competitive

environment, as in marketing and management practice),
often: technology-centred view
But recently: shift towards customer orientation, more open

perspective + approach

7
CF - Methods
Regularly Used Methods:

• Publication Analysis
(Environ. Scanning): 79%
• Brainstormings: 58%
• Scenario Methods: 46%
• Simulations: 29%
• Trend Extrapolation: 29%
• Expert Surveys / Interviews: 33%
• Delphi (only occasionally): 42%
• Future Workshops: 8%
Z_punkt 2002 survey on Jan Oliver Schwarz: A German Delphi

Futures studies and businesses in on Corporate Foresight, 2006
Germany EFMN Brief 78

CF – 3 Types of Organizational Forms
DB, IBM The Think Tank

The - many addressees +
Observatory tasks, extensive internal
- specialized task, + external network
e.g. forecasting - wider perspective
future traffic
Size
- single addressee Ericsson, BT,

- well networked Daimler, Philips,
The Collecting internally Siemens
Post
-„on the side“
- individuals separate units, full-time staff
- collecting existing
information
generating proprietary output
Lufthansa,
- low visibility P&G, Volvo
Level of Connectedness + Scope of Tasks
Dr. Karlheinz Steinmüller Patrick Becker: Corporate Foresight in Europe 2002, EFMN Brief 82
Z_punkt The Foresight Company with additions by Z_punkt
8
Corporate Foresight Framework
From Future Research to Strategic Action
CF Level 1
Futurists (External
Monitoring Analysis
Projection Or Internal)
>> Research
Trends Key Factors / Drivers Scenarios / Contexts
>> Methods
CF Level 2
Internal
Transformation Foresight Team
>> Implementation
Strategy Innovation >> Process
Internal Foresight
CF Level 3
Community
Application >> Enrichment
Futurizing the whole company >> Expertise
CF is more than future research. It is a complex,

multi-layered communication process
Overview
• Z_punkt
• Examples and
Challenges
• CF and Policy
Foresight

9
CF – Trend Based Innovations:
From Megatrends to New Products at BASF
Authorised by BASF

CF – Strategy Orientation
Strategic Visioning at Siemens AG
3 time horizons
roadmapping and scenarios
Impacts on business and
segments
STEEP approach
+ Customers
+ Competitors
Source: "Pictures of the Future - Strategic Visioning at Siemens“

• Also special studies
e. g. study by Z_punkt & Siemens
„Real-Time Communication at the Customer
Interface“ (in German):
trend analysis + scenarios for sectors

10
CF – Innovation Orientation
Social Innovation at Deutsche Telekom AG
• Customer centered
approach
• Trends and Scenarios are

used to explore changing
customer demands and
market needs
• Insights are used to design

new ICT applications and to
trigger R&D projects

Z_punkt
Future Services: Trends
Strategic Trend Analysis

From general environmental
scanning to specific tasks
Z_trend database® Society

• HTML-based knowledge tool
• STEEP systematics Technoloy
• about 240 trends continuously
monitored Economy
• new: integration into scenario
processes
Ecology
• Weak Signals, Wild Card and
industries modules optional
Politics

11
Z_punkt
Future Services: Scenarios
Scenario Projects Scenario Software ScenLab®

• Customized processes • Includes unique genetic
• Integrating the client‘s algorithms for high
competence complexities
• From quick & dirty 1 workshop • Automated clustering
processes to sophisticated • Collaboration tools included
large ones

Typical Problems & Pitfalls
No “Building of Knowledge Pool”: a lack of continuity

Playground Pitfall of activities, lack of commitment to CF
Monologue Pitfall Results remain more or less unknown internally: low

level of diffusion of results into the corporation
Acceptance + implementation problems for

Lone Rider Pitfall outcomes, lack of integration of colleagues / employees
into the process
Tendency to re-invent the wheel in terms of processes,

methods, application, communication
12
Observations
CF is becoming more widespread Coping with paradoxes:

and important • Lack of standards
Struggling with difficulties, which vs. need for individual
methodological improvement alone solutions
cannot answer • Low level of diffusion / extent
• Cultural clash between of practical use in businesses
extrapolation / forecasting people in general
and qualitatively / wider vs. sophisticated state of the
environment oriented people
art “lead user” development
• Acceptance of qualitative future
knowledge problematic in upper • Gap between “report culture”
management – “need for and need for action
numbers” • Gap between scientific /
• Methodological „bridge“ to foresight community
established business processes discussions and practical use
seems to be missing

CF – Success Factors
Competence
Cooperation
Continuity
5C
Creativity Communication

13
CF – Success Factors:
Competence
Competence
3 Main Competences:
Content, Methods, Processes.
Cooperation
Continuity
5C Build a flexible toolbox.
Keep it simple! And
transparent.

Cooperation
First of all, make sure you have the

commitment of the management
board.
Competence
Involve the potential target group

Cooperation at an early stage to increase
Continuity
5C acceptance
Establish Learning Loops and an

Creativity Communication internal Foresight Community (New
Approach: Community of Practice)

14
Communication
Effective communication is as
Competence
important as the quality of content.
Cooperation
Continuity Use adequate communication
5C formats to reduce complexity
due to needs of different target
groups

Creativity
Deliver surprises, not only

Competence business as usual scenarios.
Continuity
Cooperation Hold the balance between straight
analysis and visionary thinking.
5C
An experimental approach is
Creativity Communication necessary, because there are only
few standards. But: No risk, no fun!

15
Continuity
Competence
Organise CF highly flexible, so you
can react quickly to new demands
Cooperation
Continuity
5C Try to make CF an essential part of

strategic management.

Overview
• Z_punkt
• Examples and
Challenges
• CF and Policy
Foresight

16
Corporate Foresight
A real competitive advantage! We need everything

about the global business
Quick, dirty and highly relevant!
environment in 2017Q3 -
- next week!
But don‘t forget - - we
are car makers!
As a manager - - I can
take only the best
scenario!
But honestly, Mr
Steinmuller, your guts -
- which one will come
true?
Public Foresight
We should finalize it before the

end of the legislative period - -
According to highest scientific standards
or better: at the beginning of the
next??? Perhaps with a
prolongation option in FP9?
This really fits well with

one of my student’s
diploma ...
Without including a forest-

ethical study, it will never
get an approval.
And there should be
institutes from N, S, W,
and East European
member states ...
17
Corporate vs. Public Foresight
Issues of CF: Issues of Public Foresight:

• Future business environment • Global, national and regional
(markets with time horizon x, in challenges and how to address
region y, in industry z) them
• Innovative products and services • Development of social systems
for tomorrow‘s customers • What are our common visions and
• Strategic options in competition goals?
• Future risks and opportunities in • How to motivate, mobilize,
general integrate all groups?
• And where the hell are society and
regulation moving to?
Æ Focus maily on explorative Æ Focus maily on normative

questions questions (?)

Corporate Foresight
Conditions for success

Measures of Success • Completely in line with interests of the
• Approval by board company
• Adapted to organizational culture
• Implementation of results
(e. g. business language)
• Follow-up project • Strong advocates (“owners”) within
company
No short term return on investment! Rules
• Confidentiality
Part of company culture • Short project times
• Usually tight budgets
Æ Sometimes shifting targets
• Quantification urge
Æ Sometimes multitude of interests
• (Over-) Optimism
Æ Sometimes hidden agendas • Legitimation by prestige
• Main results for board on 3 ppt slides
CF has to “compete” with daily business

18
Public Foresight
Measures of Success Conditions for success

• Acceptance of results by • Political support (owners of
scientific / foresight community process)
• Implementation of results • Compatibility to political
agenda
Part of political processes Rules
Æ Sometimes shifting targets • Formal requirements of the tender
• Political correctness
Æ Sometimes multitude of interests
• Inclusiveness (integration of all
Æ Sometimes hidden agendas stakeholders)
• Legitimation of decisions • Longer project times
• Postponement of decisions • Often: awkwardly large consortia
• Expertise vs. counter-expertise • Legitimation by prestige

Where to cooperate?
CF needs PF! Does PF need CF?

• PF is exploited by CF people • CF sometimes voices fresh
(and some managers anyway) ideas
• PF provides insights into the • CF has (some) business
external business environment community insights
• PF sometimes is used to • CF has (some) client driven
legitimate CF methodological developments
• PF provides fundamental
methodological studies
Overlapping interests:
• “future intelligence” in all fields
• cutting-edge methodologies
• quality standards (?)

19
How to interlink networks?
PF networks CF networks
• some national networks • mostly (closed) client
• EU networks networks of CF consultancies
• project-related networks • some failures to found
European networks
Netzwerk Zukunftsforschung
DIFI
Le Cercle des Entrepreneurs du Futur
What beyond “just more conferences”?

Knowledge sharing platform …
Final Words
Forecasting is
very difficult,
especially about
the future.
But connecting
foresight people
is difficult, either.
Mark Twain

20
Thank you for your attention!
Contact:
www.z-punkt.de
www.steinmueller.eu

21

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Corporate foresight - experiences,

insights and its relation to policy foresight

Correspondents’ day 2007

Dr. Karlheinz Steinmüller

Some Facts Core Competences

Dr. Karlheinz Steinmüller

Dr. Karlheinz Steinmüller

Council for Scientific and Industrial

Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences

Dr. Karlheinz Steinmüller

International Foresight Group - IFG

Germany Z_punkt GmbH The Foresight Company

The Arlington Institute

Europe Finland Futures Academy

Asia Chinese Academy of Sciences

Nucleo de Estudos de Futuro (NEF)

Dr. Karlheinz Steinmüller

Dr. Karlheinz Steinmüller

Some New Foresight Tools

Trends Scenarios Innovation

• about 240 trends • includes unique genetic • new approach for

Dr. Karlheinz Steinmüller

Dr. Karlheinz Steinmüller

Corporate Foresight - A Definition

But: a number of common problems of its use and

Still largely “white spot” in terms of research on CF Æ

Dr. Karlheinz Steinmüller

Corporate Foresight Toolbox

Weak Signals Key Factors Scenarios s

Dr. Karlheinz Steinmüller

Businesses work with foresight in order to

1. Reduce uncertainty by identifying new

Growing awareness for the complexity of interactions

Issues – Shift Towards a Wider Perspective

Fields of Observation (in order of priority):

1. Technology and Innovation

Insider’s perspective dominates

Focussing often on immediate environment (closer competitive

But recently: shift towards customer orientation, more open

Dr. Karlheinz Steinmüller

Regularly Used Methods:

Z_punkt 2002 survey on Jan Oliver Schwarz: A German Delphi

Dr. Karlheinz Steinmüller

CF – 3 Types of Organizational Forms

DB, IBM The Think Tank

- single addressee Ericsson, BT,

Level of Connectedness + Scope of Tasks

CF is more than future research. It is a complex,

Dr. Karlheinz Steinmüller

Dr. Karlheinz Steinmüller

Source: "Pictures of the Future - Strategic Visioning at Siemens“

Dr. Karlheinz Steinmüller

• Trends and Scenarios are

• Insights are used to design

Dr. Karlheinz Steinmüller

Strategic Trend Analysis

Z_trend database® Society

Dr. Karlheinz Steinmüller

Scenario Projects Scenario Software ScenLab®

Dr. Karlheinz Steinmüller

Typical Problems & Pitfalls

No “Building of Knowledge Pool”: a lack of continuity

Monologue Pitfall Results remain more or less unknown internally: low

5C Build a flexible toolbox.

First of all, make sure you have the

Involve the potential target group

Establish Learning Loops and an

Deliver surprises, not only

5C Try to make CF an essential part of