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Ricardo A.

HENRIQUEZ SALMAN (Student)


s
s

1
Campus Pessac

School of Economics

Determinants of M-Payment Adoption among Urban Informal


Entrepreneurs in Dakar

A thesis presented by

Ricardo A. HENRIQUEZ SALMAN

Submitted to the
The College of Law, Political Science, Economics and Management
in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of

Master

in

M2 Economiste-Statisticien du Developpement et de la Population

Pessac, June, 2019


Universite de Bordeaux, Pessac

The College of Law, Political Science, Economics and Management

The committee members, hereby, certify that have read the thesis presented by Ricardo Andres
HENRIQUEZ SALMAN and that it is fully adequate in scope and quality as a partial require-
ment for the degree of Master of Science in M2 Economiste-Statisticien du Developpement
et de la Population.

J.P BERROU
LAM Sciences Po
Principal Advisor

Francois COMBARNOUS
GRETHA
Committee Member

Matthieu CLEMENT
GRETHA
Graduate Program Director

Pessac, June, 2019

i
Declaration of Authorship

I, Ricardo HENRIQUEZ, declare that this thesis titled, ”Determinants of M-Payment Adop-
tion among Urban Informal Entrepreneurs in Dakar” and the work presented in it are my own.
I confirm that:

• This work was done wholly or mainly while in candidature for a research degree at this
University.

• Where any part of this thesis has previously been submitted for a degree or any other
qualification at this University or any other institution, this has been clearly stated.

• Where I have consulted the published work of others, this is always clearly attributed.

• Where I have quoted from the work of others, the source is always given. With the
exception of such quotations, this dissertation is entirely my own work.

• I have acknowledged all main sources of help.

• Where the thesis is based on work done by myself jointly with others, I have made clear
exactly what was done by others and what I have contributed myself.

Pessac, June, 2019

2019
c by
All Rights Reserved

ii
Dedication

To my mom, my dad, family and friends.


Thanks for all your unconditional confidence, support, patience, and encouragement. You
were my main motivation for pushing through this work.

iii
Acknowledgements

I would like to express my deepest gratitude to: my memoir supervisor, JP Berrou–it


was really a pleasure to work with him in the approach and development of this research
paper–he was remarkably generous guiding me in the organization of my work which allowed
me to achieve my Master Thesis in the best possible way; to my studies director Matthieu
Clement, for his availability and motivation throughout the year; and to my reading committee
members.
I also acknowledge the University of Bordeaux and the Faculty of Economics and Political
Sciences for making the decision to remain free of fees for all the international students.
To my fellow colleagues for all your encouragement to make this possible. I want to thank
also to the professors of the ”Seminaires de Developpement” who inspired me to gain more
experience in the research field.
A special dedication goes to my homeland: El Salvador. I will always be proud to be a part
of its people and hope that one day I will participate in its development progress, and to my
second and third home countries: France and the USA in which I have made lots of good
memories and friends that have impacted my life.
¡Gracias Totales!

iv
Determinants of M-Payment Adoption among Urban
Informal Entrepreneurs in Dakar
by

Abstract

(English) This study evaluates the determinants of M-payment adoption among informal en-
trepreneurs in Dakar, based on data collected from the LAM-Orange survey. It examines
whether these determinants stem from individual characteristics or business characteristics.
While considering Mobile Money adoption as a three-stage process rather than an single out-
come, the findings suggest that, entrepreneurs who had greater cognitive and entrepreneurial
abilities were more likely to adopt it (first stage); business characteristics as well as household
characteristics were important determinants for the professional adoption (second stage); in
addition, entrepreneurs who had a bank account (formal or informal) influenced the payments
to suppliers and bills (third stage). These results show the decomposition across each stage,
and it seems to open the discourse of a more nuanced view of Mobile Money as a comple-
ment rather than a financial inclusion tool. A sensibility analysis is implemented to check the
validity of these results.

(French) Cette étude s’intéresse aux déterminants de l’adoption des paiements mobiles
chez les entrepreneurs informels à Dakar, sur la base des données issue de l’enquête LAM-
Orange. Il examine les déterminants qui découlent de caractéristiques de l’entrepreneur ou
de caractéristiques de l’unité de production. L’adoption de Mobile Money est considérée
comme un processus à trois niveaux au lieu d’une seule décision. Les résultats suggèrent
que les entrepreneurs ayant des meilleures compétences cognitives et entrepreneuriales sont
plus susceptibles d’adopter Mobile Money; des caractéristiques de l’unité de production ainsi
que des caractéristiques du ménage sont des déterminants importants pour l’adoption à une
fin professionnelle ; par ailleurs, les entrepreneurs disposant d’un compte bancaire (formel ou
informel) sont plus susceptibles d’adopter Mobile Money pour les paiements aux fournisseurs.
Ces résultats sont identifiables en décomposant l’adoption du Mobile Money en trois étapes,
et semblent ouvrir le discours d’une vision plus nuancée de l’effet inclusif du Mobile Money
sur le plan financier. Une analyse de robustesse est mise en œuvre pour vérifier la pertinence
de ces résultats.

v
List of Figures

1.1 Analytical Framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4


1.2 Mobile Financial Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
1.3 Mobile Money adoption Process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
1.4 Population Density in Dakar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
1.5 Population Evolution and Mobile Subscriptions in Senegal . . . . . . . . . . 12

3.1 Ratio of MMuse in Dakar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31


3.2 Educational Pathway . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
3.3 Income Level of the Sample . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36

4.1 Sequential adoption process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42


4.2 MMcat distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
4.3 MMcat distribution according to Logcam . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
4.4 MMcat distribution according to CAM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
4.5 Banked coefficient . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
4.6 p-value of Banked . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
4.7 Decomposition of Banked into weights . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
4.8 Decomposition of Banked across cohorts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53

C.1 LR Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
C.2 Hausman Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
C.3 Small-Hsiao test #1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
C.4 Small-Hsiao test #2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
C.5 Wald test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
C.6 Restricted vs. Unrestricted: MMCat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
C.7 ROC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67

D.1 Behavioral Adoption Framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69


D.2 TAM Original . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
D.3 TAM Model Adaptation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70

vi
D.4 UTAUT Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70
D.5 UTAUT Model Adaptation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
D.6 Micro-economic studies dealing with endogeneity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73

vii
List of Tables

1.1 Definition of the main concepts employed in this research study . . . . . . . 3


1.2 Senegal Financial Index (2017), Bank vs. Mobile Money account holders . . 11

3.1 Age by area of birth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28


3.2 Sample Breakdown by Gender, Age, Place of birth, Education and Sector. . . 29
3.3 Descriptive Statistics of Mobile Money Usage. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
3.4 Differences in means . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
3.5 Academic Formation vs. Technical Training . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
3.6 EDUC variable categories . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35

4.1 Sequential Logit (Reduced Form) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43


4.2 Effect of unobserved heterogeneity on BANKED . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50

A.1 Description of the variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57


A.2 Summary Statistics of the main variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
A.3 Table: Key characteristics of Dakar’s informal economy (Stylized Facts) 2017 59

viii
Contents

Abstract v

List of Figures vii

List of Tables viii

List of Abbreviations xi

1 Introduction 1
1.1 Outline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
1.2 Mobile Ecoystem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

2 Literature Review 13
2.1 Urban Informal Sector Entrepreneurship . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
2.1.1 Perspectives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
2.1.2 Heterogeneity of the sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
2.1.3 Entrepreneurs Traits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
2.2 Theoretical Framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
2.2.1 Technology adoption Frameworks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
2.2.2 Economics of Mobile Money . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
2.3 Mobile Money in Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
2.3.1 Previous Research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
2.3.2 Financial Inclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23

3 Data 25
3.1 Data Survey . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
3.2 Summary Statistics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
3.2.1 Characteristics of the Units of Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
3.2.2 Characteristics of the Workforce . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

ix
3.3 Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28

4 Empirical Analysis 39
4.1 Sequential Logit Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
4.2 Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
4.3 Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
4.4 Robustness Checks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
4.4.1 Accounting for unobserved heterogeneity: Sensibility Analysis . . . . 49
4.4.2 Decomposing the Effect . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
4.5 Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52

5 Conclusion 54
5.1 Summary of Main Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
5.2 Practical Implications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
5.3 Limitations and future research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55

A Appendix 56

B Appendix02 60

C Appendix03 63
C.1 IIA: Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63

D Appendix04 68
D.1 A word on the Behavioral frameworks: using Structural Equation Models . . 68

Bibliography 83

x
List of Abbreviations

B2B Business-to-Business
B/G2C Business/Government-to-Clients
C2B Consumer-to-Business
ESPS Senegal Poverty Monitoring Survey
GDP Gross Domestic Product
ICT Information Communication Technology
ILO International Labor Organization
IS Information System
MM Mobile Money
M2M Mobile-to-Mobile
MNO Mobile Network Operators
NFC Near Field Communication
NINEA National Identification Number of Enterprises and Association
P2P Person-to-Person
PEOU Perceived Ease of Use
PU Perceived Usefulness
SME Small Medium Enterprise
SYSCOA Systeme Comptable Quest-Africain
TAM Technology Acceptance Model
UTAUT United Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology
UPI Unité de Production Informelle

xi
Chapter 1

Introduction

-“The mobile handset in the hands of an ordinary African has become the symbol of
leapfrogging,”
Calestous Juma -Kenya born former chair of the innovation for economic development
executive programme at Harvard’s Kennedy School.

Research rationale: Why explore the determinants of mobile payments?

Mobile Money has the potential to create innovative pathways to financial inclusion
through payment facilitation via mobile phones (Lonie, 2013; Aron, 2017). Kendall (2014)
gives account on the potential of mobile payments within small informal business in Sub-
Saharan Africa: “The region’s SME also send and receive a wide variety of payments. They
receive payments from customers, middlemen, and government agencies, while making pay-
ments to wholesalers, employees, landlords, and service providers. Notably, most of these are
still paid with cash. Small and medium-sized enterprises are recognized as an important (mo-
bile payment) market segment given their higher payment volumes. And being at the centre of
customer and supplier networks, such enterprises can stimulate adoption both up and down
the value chain”. The widespread use of cash and the opportunity to endorse mobile pay-
ments amongst informal businesses is defined by Donovan (2012) as a financial inclusive tool
when financial services are brought to the unbanked. This claim is popular in development
narratives, mobile payments are increasingly being recognized as means to enable access to
finance for the unbanked (Mas Radcliffe, 2011; Deen-Swarray et. al, 2013; WorldBank In-
foDev, 2012; Kendall, 2014). This has been the case in anglophone Africa, notably in Kenya
with M-Pesa, where mobile money positively contributes towards the growth and development
of informal enterprises and sustainable livelihoods as it is shown in previous studies (Asongu,
2018; Tchamyou, 2019; Mbogo, 2010; Morawczynski, 2011). Mobile money in West Africa,
and to a lesser extent in francophone Africa has been analyzed. Globally, the studies that are

1
CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION 2

focused on poor populations do not distinguish between the formal vs. informal (Fall, 2015;
Pankomera, 2018).

Objective

The objective of this paper is to provide an illustration of the adoption process focused
on informal entrepreneurs in Dakar, Senegal, considering the importance of Mobile Money
payment initiatives and the lack of focus on the informal sector.

Underlying assumptions

This research paper will examine the following questions that emerge from the compre-
hensive literature review. They will be answered throughout the analysis paper.

• Are the factors of adoption of mobile payments specific of entrepreneurs characteristics


or their businesses?

• Are attributes of individuals who adopt mobile payments different from those who do
not?

• Is schooling fundamental to the use of mobile payments?

• Is the ”firm sector” activity a determinant of adoption?

• Is the adoption of mobile payments facilitated when an individual has a formal or infor-
mal banking account?

• What type of population is more suitable for the Mobile Money solution?

To sum up, the above discussion leads to the following research question: What are the
determinants of Mobile Money adoption among urban informal entrepreneurs in Dakar? To
answer this question, we identify three hypotheses that this paper aims to test:
H1: Mobile Money users are higher among disadvantaged entrepreneurs (those with
low living conditions, migrants, women or less educated) than richer population.
H2: Mobile money for business purposes increases as the business has a higher produc-
tivity.
H3: Mobile payments adoption is determined by the activity sector of the firm.
CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION 3

Table 1.1: Definition of the main concepts employed in this research study

Mobile transactions
This refers to transactions carried out through mobile technologies and devices.
It includes every kind of mobile transaction offered
by any ICT, whether it involves financial values or not.

Mobile payments
Mobile payments include payments made or enabled through digital mobility technologies,
via hand-held devices, with or without the use of mobile telecommunications networks.
These payments are digital financial transactions, although not necessarily linked to financial
institutions or banks.

Mobile banking
Mobile banking can be understood as a set of mobile banking services, involving
the use of portable devices connected to telecommunications networks that provide users
with access to mobile payments, transactions and other banking and financial services
linked to customer accounts, with the direct participation of traditional
banking institutions. This concept can also be regarded as the banking channel through
which the digital mobile services are provided by the institutions to their clients, i.e.
by integrating the services and channels.

Mobile money
Electronic money has attributes related to mobility and portability,
and is equivalent to mobile-money or mobile-cash. It can be differentiated from other
means of electronic payment (such as credit cards, debit cards, smart cards, etc.)
because of its ability to replicate the essential attributes of traditional money,
such as liquidity, acceptability and anonymity.
Mobile money may be related to mobile wallet, which refers to a digital repository
of electronic money developed and implemented on mobile devices, allowing peer-to-peer
transactions (P2P) between mobile devices (M2M) from users of the same service
(possible interoperability among MNOs).
Source: Modified version of Diniz (2011))
CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION 4

Figure 1.1: Analytical Framework

Impact

· Scope
· Positve / Negative
Usage · Macro / Micro

· Ease of Use
· Quality of the service
Adoption · Different usages

· Who are the users?


· Perceptions
Acces
· Determinants
· Socioeconomic Factors
· Infrastructure · Latent Demand
· Technical: GSMA
· Mobile Network Operators
· Mobile Money Market
· Regulations

Analytical Framework of Mobile Money Diffusion


Source: Modified version of Nielsen (2013)

Aim and Scope

The discussion initiates establishing the definitions of mobile transactions, mobile pay-
ments, mobile banking and mobile money presented in table 1.1.
For the purpose of this discussion, a concise framework will be examined within the
context of Mobile Money. Since the studies on Mobile Money have multiple approaches,
perspectives, and definitions, a precise framework needs to be addressed from the beginning.
(Diniz, 2011).
Mobile Money can be understood from four different phases in an analytic framework:
access, adoption, usage, and impact (Nielsen, 2013). Access depends on both physical in-
frastructure and technical features. The physical infrastructure refers to mobile network op-
erators’ (MNOs) ability to distribute retailers across the regions. While technical refers to
CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION 5

access through network infrastructure (GSMA, 2016). These factors are prerequisites for the
diffusion of mobile money.
However, the actual adoption of Mobile Money depends on the individual, the firm charac-
teristics or the demand of clients and suppliers. (Chaix and Torre, 2015) Adoption relates to
questions of who accepts mobile money and why they do so. The choice of adopting Mobile
Money will depend on social and economic factors and the individual’s intentions. Usage de-
pends on the quality of the services and refers on how users effortlessly can apply the services
(multiple usages) (Berrou, 2017). For the firms, certain drawbacks such as a top limit on the
amount of transactions possible make mobile money less desirable for business purposes than
for personal use (Iddris, 2013). By consequence, the diffusion of mobile money will depend
the purpose of the usage. The last perspective refers to the impact of mobile money at various
levels- from household level to macroeconomic growth (Asongu, 2018; Ky, 2017; Suri and
Jack). A synthesis of the framework is presented in Figure 1.1.
This paper will only explore the adoption phase of Mobile Money. Therefore, the potential
factors that may determine the compliant adoption will be studied. By exploring the socioe-
conomic and demographic characteristics of the entrepreneurs paired with their informal unit
of production.
The adoption process used in this research is inspired from the seminal work of Fall(2015).
The Mobile Banking adoption process used in this research is a modified version of Fall 2015,
and it consists of three transitions. To pass from one transition to the other the entrepreneur
needs to successfully adopt the previous one. Under the first transition, the individual has
already obtained a Mobile Money account. The second transition is for professional pur-
poses, the entrepreneur uses Mobile Money for business activities. Additionally, at the third
transition the entrepreneur adopts mobile payment.
According to Gencer (2010), Mobile Money spans several Financial Services: mobile
payments, mobile savings, insurance, credit, and mobile banking. A diagram categorizing
these services is presented in Figure 1.2. Within mobile payments: Person-to-Person (P2P) are
made between people domestically or internationally in the form of remittances; consumer-to-
business (C2B), to merchants by customers (either online or in NFC); Business-to-Business
(B2B), between businesses to reduce cash in the supply chain upon inventory delivery; and
Business/Government-to-Clients (B/G2C), to provide salaries to employees and government
benefit and pension disbursements to citizens. In this study, we will focus in B2B mobile
payments, with regard to m-payments to pay bills and suppliers.
Considering that it has been a decade since the introduction of mobile money into the
Senegalese market, the marketing strategies of the MNOs selling mobile money services are
CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION 6

Figure 1.2: Mobile Financial Services

Mobile Financial Services

Mobile Payments Mobile Finance Mobile Banking

P2P C2B B2B B/G2C Credit/ Transactional Informational


Insurance/Savings
-At store (proximity
-Mobile Money Transfer payments) - Replace cash in supply -Salary Disbursements -Alerts
-Domestic or -Mobile Online chain -Pensions -Disturbement/ -Account balance &
-Brokerage
International (e.g. Ebay or - To pay suppliers -Rebates Repayments history
Mobile remittances ringtones) - Mobile bill payments -Insurance -Specials

Source: Modified version of Gencer (2010).

by now daily life common (Tobbin, 2011; ICT Africa, 2015). Therefore, we assume that hav-
ing a mobile phone and knowledge of mobile money services is a fact among the Senegalese.

1.1 Outline
This thesis relates to three strands in the literature. First, growing literature analyses
the framework and pattern of mobile money adoption among firms in developing countries.
Second, the paper relates to the literature on the sequential process of mobile money adoption.
Third, it contributes to the literature assessing the determinants for adoption. The aim is to
understand the adoption among informal units of production by first, looking at the whole
picture and then focusing on the three-step process of adoption.

Geoeconomic Context

Senegal is located in West Africa, border to the Atlantic Ocean. It gained independence
from France in the 60s, therefore it acquired a rich French heritage. The country has a popu-
lation of approximately 15 million, with a 56% living in rural areas. Poverty levels are high,
especially in rural areas leading to high urban migration (annual rate of urbanization is around
40%) (ANSD, 2017).
Dakar, the capital of Senegal, has 3.9 million population living in an area representing
CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION 7

Figure 1.3: Mobile Money adoption Process

Source: Adaptation of the adoption process on Seck-Fall (2015).


CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION 8

Figure 1.4: Population Density in Dakar

SEN_adm3
Population Density (People per sq.Km)
989 - 10000
10000 - 20000
20000 - 29250
senegal_administrative

Source: ANSD, 2015


CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION 9

0.3% of the total area of the country, nearly a quarter of the population of Senegal (23.2%).
Dakar is located in the most populated region of Senegal and the density of its population is
also the highest (6000 persons / Km2). The Dakar region is divided into four departments
that can be considered as administrative structures. The different population densities are
shown on the figure according to the Census 2015. (ANSD, 2015) Dakar and Pikine are the
most populated departements and represent the economic zones of the region. The two largest
markets in Senegal respectively the Sandaga and the Zinc are located in these departements.
(Berrou, 2017). Their population density is similar in terms of person per square kilometer.
Guedaiawaye is the smallest department with the smallest population, however it has the
highest population density. Rufisque is the second largest departement in Dakar, therefore
its economic activity is less dynamic.
Senegal is ahead of Sub-Saharan Africa’s average urbanization rate of 40%. It’s urban
population has almost doubled in the last few decades, rising from 23% in 1960 to 43% in
2013, and is projected to reach 60% by 2030. Urban growth has been mainly driven by urban
centers, and mostly Dakar, Senegal’s capital city. 65% of Senegal’s gross domestic product
(GDP) is produced in urban centers, and 55% in Dakar itself. 62% of business openings are
taking place in the capital city. (World Bank, 2015). However, Senegalese cities, struggle
with a chronic deficit of urban infrastructure and poor service delivery.
The Dakar region is characterized by steady growth which is not inclusive, ranging
from an annual average growth rate of 6.5% over the last five years. The agricultural sector
remains the largest sector of the economy, which occupies about 75% of the workforce. In
Senegal, the lack of investment and poor infrastructure stopped productivity (Aker and Mbiti,
2010; Jack and Suri, 2011). The road network is generally not paved, and transport systems
underdeveloped making the rural areas are seasonally isolated - an estimated 14 % of roads
are paved. (World Bank, 2017; Trading economics, Torres 2011). Less than 65% of the total
population has access to electricity, thus in rural areas electricity is close to non-existent.
The Small Medium Enterprise (SME) sector is the main source of income and employ-
ment for the population outside the agricultural sector. Unemployment is very high, although
reliable numbers are difficult to find - estimates range from 6.5 to 9 (ILO) %. This is coherent
with the large Senegalese informal sector, and the difficulty added while accounting all the
informal economic activities (Hussmans 2004).
The fixed telephone line covers less than 1 per 100 people. Mobile phone penetration
has leaped all other infrastructural development in the region.
Likewise, more than 14 % of adults surveyed in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia reported
sending money within the country in the previous 30 days (compared to 1 to 2 % interna-
tionally), and 32 % reported receiving money sent from within the country in the previous 30
CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION 10

days (again compared to 3 % internationally) (Kendall et al., 2012; Kendall et al., 2013). The
financial systems are considered deficient compared to other developing economies, despite
many new improvements in the past decades (Demirgüc-Kunt and Klapper, 2012). Foreign-
owned banks account for 50 % of the banking industry total assets. Competition among for-
eign commercial banks has expanded the sector and improved (IMF, 2015). Mobile banking
penetration has leaped all other formal financial institutions in the region.

Background

Historians like Boubacar Barry and Mamadou Diouf demonstrated how the role of the
Djolof empire, the origin of the Wolof ethnicity, became the dominant ethnicity in Senegal.
This partially explains the modern behavior of the Wolof as economic actors, historically
a large and stratified kingdom, and more traders (sellers and buyers) were employed than
agriculture workers. (Saint-Martin Yves J,1973). The domination of the Wolof language,
or what is often referred to as the Wolofisation of Senegal, reinforces his ethnic hierarchy.
(O’brien 1998; Smith, 2010). Other ethnic groups such as the Peuls and Serere, were initially
settled in rural areas. Traditionally, they were farmers, fishers, and landowners, however, since
the 1970s oil crisis and the economic collapse there was an urban pull and a rural push among
these ethnic minorities (Goldsmith, 2004). Subsequently, it became the origin of the vibrant
urban informal economy in Dakar (Minard, 2009).
Minard (2009) did a survey focusing on city dwellers of Dakar and found that the major-
ity of male respondents believed that entrepreneurship is not a “local” attribute of Senegalese
people per se, but it is more related to their experience working with Toubobs (non-Africans).
Women who answered the survey believed that Senegalese entrepreneurs behaved like any
other Africans when it comes to entrepreneurship: the main objective for businesses is to ful-
fill the needs of “clients.” Thus, giving importance to social value as well as financial results.

1.2 Mobile Ecoystem


Market opportunities
With only 25% adults with access to a traditional bank account, Senegal is far from
reaching full financial inclusion (Findex, 2017). However, Senegal has a strong technolog-
ical eco-system already set up to respond to the financial inclusion needs of the population.
Mobile telephony is seen as a tool for socio-economic activity and, increasingly, as a means
for promoting economic and social development in developing countries.(Hanafizadeh et al.,
2014).
CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION 11

In 2016, the average number of access points in 2016 per 10,000 people was 3.8, increas-
ing to 5.2 this year. Over 81% of financial access points belong to Mobile Network Operator
(MNO) and, additionally, Mobile Money access points rise by 37% over the past year. All
regions within Senegal experienced Mobile Mobile growth and impacting the widespread of
MNO. Currently, the mobile penetration rate is 111%.

Table 1.2: Senegal Financial Index (2017), Bank vs. Mobile Money account holders

(1) (2)
Bank Account Mobile Money Account
No 755 647

Yes 245 353

Total 1000 1000

N 1000 1000
Source: Senegal Financial Index (2017)

Mobile Network Operator Launched in 2008, Wari, Senegal’s top money transfer ser-
vice, pioneered over-the-counter money transfer and bill payment services, followed by Or-
ange Money in 2010, Tigo Cash in 2014, and Joni Joni in 2013. Currently, Wari is the most
popular mobile money in Dakar, followed by Orange Money (64%), and Joni Joni (53%). The
MNOs give the opportunity to expand its offering of digital financial services to those who
are unbanked but have mobile phones. (Analyses complémentaires Orange,2018). (*) Ninety
percent of the businesses that use Mobile Money for business purposes use Wari.
The evolution over time between demographic growth and mobile phone adoption is
shown in figure 1.5. Growth in mobile phone adoption has shown rapid uptake since 2000
(exceeding 100 mobile subscriptions per 100 people in 2013), while population growth has
shown steady and linear growth. “Mobile phone subscription” refers to active SIM cards
rather than a single subscriber. Using the number of registered SIMs subscription may induce
multiple counting of the same individual if several accounts are held with different providers.
This will exaggerate true adoption. It is well known that “having one cell phone is great,
but it is cheaper to have two.” In Africa, it is relatively easy for users to migrate to another
MNO. Mobile Money users switch providers to maximize promotions offered by the MNOs
and lower transaction costs.
CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION 12

Figure 1.5: Population Evolution and Mobile Subscriptions in Senegal


1.50e+07
1.00e+07
5000000
0

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015


Year

Mobile Phone Subscriptions Senegal Total Population


Source: World Bank

Notes:“Mobile phone subscriptions” refer to active SIM cards rather than individual subscribers.
Chapter 2

Literature Review

This literature review focuses on developing an understanding of key findings relevant


to this research project. This research is concerned with the adoption of m-payments in the
informal economy in Dakar.
The literature review develops a theoretical understanding of key themes in the follow-
ing three discourses as they pertain to the research question: First, the Informal economy:
starting from the perspectives, trough the acknowledgment of heterogeneity and focusing on
the entrepreneurs and their informal units of production. Second, the theoretical frameworks:
from the technology adoption frameworks, trough the economics of mobile money, focus-
ing on the mechanisms influencing mobile money adoption. Finally, from previous empirical
research focused only on individuals, or focused only on firms, Mobile Money impacts are
going to be examined.

2.1 Urban Informal Sector Entrepreneurship


The informal economy in most African countries is so abundant in terms of both em-
ployment and income, that it should not be overlooked. Since its “discovery” in the early
1970s (ILO), the “informal economy” has illustrated multiple perspectives but still continues
to remain conceptually elusive. Maloney in 2004 observed that three decades of research had
not yielded consensus on the definition of the informal sector. As de Soto said: “the informal
sector is like an elephant: we may not be able to define it precisely, but we know when we see
it.” The informal “entrepreneurs” constitute about half of informal employment in developing
and emerging economies (ILO, 2018). These economic actors have started millions of unreg-
ulated, unlicensed, and untaxed micro-enterprises that all together are referred as “Informal
Units of Production” (Granstrom, 2009). The informal “enterprises” include small compa-
nies ranging from waste-recycling units, street vendors, pavement food stalls, sale of pirated

13
CHAPTER 2. LITERATURE REVIEW 14

books, and digital products to home-based manufacturing private sector businesses.

Informal entrepreneurship needs to be clearly defined. Given that entrepreneurship has


also been proven as a complex and elusive concept. Williams (2018) who asserted that the
term:”entrepreneurship means different things to different people”, a working definition is
here adopted appropriate to the context of Dakar. We defined an informal entrepreneur as
somebody actively involved in starting a business or are the owner/manager of a business 42
months old participating in monetary transactions not declared to the state for tax and benefits
purposes when they should be declared but which are legal in all other respect.

The following section of the literature review on informality is the recognition of four
theoretical perspectives: dualism, structuralism, romantic view, and social actor. Even though,
these concepts are usually portrayed as opposed characteristics of informality, the research
will consider them as integrated. (De Soto, 2001; Williams, 2012).
The consequence is that none of the theoretical perspectives toward informal entrepreneur-
ship appears to be universally applicable. Instead, different perspectives seem to be more
relevant in some populations than others. For this reason, the conceptual baseline of this pa-
per is that rather than depict these as rival perspectives of informality, they should be seen
as all applying to different segments of informal entrepreneurs. When characterizing in more
deprived populations, more emphasis needs to be put on the survivalist reading as an act
of a new emergent form of capitalism and conducted out of necessity in the absence of al-
ternatives.(Williams, 2010). Characterizing informal in more affluent populations, greater
emphasis needs to be placed on the more romantic and social actor views. (Minard, 2009).

2.1.1 Perspectives
Despite the ongoing conceptualization debate of informality, Hussmans (2002) argues
that there seems to be an agreement upon the distinct dimensions of informality, which are
assigned to either firms or employment. The informal sector is then defined in terms of charac-
teristics of the production units and not in terms of the characteristics of the persons involved.
Informal entrepreneurship, in sum, is defined as involving somebody actively engaged
in starting a business or is the owner/manager of a business that is less than 42 months old and
who participates in the paid production and sale of goods and services (Williams, 2006). For
these entrepreneurs, the only illicit aspect of their activity is that some or all of the monetary
transactions they undertake are undeclared to the authorities when they should be declared.
Informal entrepreneurs trading illicit goods and services (e.g., drug trafficking, gun-running)
are not part of the informal economy, they are part of the excluded illegal economy.
CHAPTER 2. LITERATURE REVIEW 15

In line with the Structuralist approach, the work of Changekery (2016) looks into the socio-
economic profile of the entrepreneurs, skill acquisition, determinants of their earnings, con-
straints faced while starting their units and their prospects in Nagaland.

Informal sector heterogeneity has been recognized for decades; Mead and Morrisson
(1996) defined three criteria to measure informality: legality, size, and capital intensity. They
emphasize on the degree of diversity within the sector. Given the fact that the degree of
variance across countries depends on the rule of law for each one. They conclude that their
analysis framework should not be used for a cross-country comparison, but rather a single
country examination.

2.1.2 Heterogeneity of the sector


The research has identified that many authors have characterized the heterogeneity among
entrepreneurs in two, three or four different segments. (Mbaye, 2012; Grimm, 2012; Berrou,
2017).
The debate starts, at first glance, on the bifurcation between a small group of successful
entrepreneurs and a much larger group of entrepreneurs that struggle to survive (Fields, 1990;
Mbaye, 2012; Bacchetta, 2009). Other studies have addressed the heterogeneity observed in
the informal sector to the differential occupations and earnings. However, there is a distinc-
tion clear between three different segments among the informal urban entrepreneurs (Grimm,
2012; Fields, 2005). There is a first distinction between the ”survivalist” easy-entry segment
(small low-performing establishments, precarious infrastructure and concentrated in the sale
and processing of food) and the upper tier ”top performers” (well-known success stories, more
extensive activities, experienced entrepreneurs, banked). In between, there exists an interme-
diate but dynamic segment known as ”constrained gazelles,” with similar characteristics with
the ”top performers” like education, language skills, sector choice, and some basic manage-
ment abilities, but who are not yet successful. Grimm (2012) finds significant evidence of
heterogeneity among UPIS: in socio-demographic characteristics; in behavioral and manage-
ment skills, structural heterogeneity, and sector choice. Additional, Berrou (2017) adds two
sub-groups among the ”gazelles”. The ”inexperienced” (younger and educated entrepreneurs,
often in the trade sector) and ”mature” (older entrepreneurs, often in the services sector) .

This body of literature on informality not only illustrates the heterogeneous nature
among entrepreneurs within the informal spectrum but also find evidence of heterogeneity
CHAPTER 2. LITERATURE REVIEW 16

of initial investment, returns to capital and stock across firms . These entrepreneurs com-
bine their entrepreneurial skills and ambitions with the pervasive informality nature of their
business; they make use their entrepreneurial skills and abilities to manage their business.

2.1.3 Entrepreneurs Traits


These individuals combine their entrepreneurial skills and ambitions with the pervasive
informality nature of their business to manage their business.
Research of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) grew during the last decade
in Senegal. SMEs, formal or informal, represent a large proportion of the total economic
sphere. The study of Islam (2011) sought to find out if the characteristics of firms and en-
trepreneurs affect the business success of SMEs. SMEs also stimulate private ownership and
entrepreneurial skills. Those who can quickly adapt to changes in market demand, supply sit-
uations and new ICT innovations contribute to the improvement of the performance of firms.
a

The entrepreneur plays a key role in ensuring their firm’s success. In a Harvard Busi-
ness Review by Kerr’s (2017), he stated that personal traits, entrepreneur orientation, and
entrepreneur ambitions are crucial to the performance of a firm. However, Williams (2012)
showed that the characteristics of informal entrepreneurs are catalogued as demographic char-
acteristics such as age and gender, and socioeconomic characteristics such as education and
formal work experience also have a significant impact on the firm’s performance. Both studies
show common results but also many disagreements, reflective of the heterogeneous nature of
informal entrepreneurs. Williams (2012) managed to identify interesting parts of this hetero-
geneity. However, due to the deepness of the informal field, more studies focusing on informal
entrepreneurial traits need to be dressed.
Furthermore, informal entrepreneurs might create their business activity as a result of
some hobby or personal interest. In most cases, women sell their products, such as food,
clothes, crafts, and pottery, these skills are acquired within the household (Williams, 2007).
Some entrepreneurs might have their business located at home, since working from home
seems to be connected to entrepreneurs, individual characteristics, and professional perfor-
mance (Web, 2012).
Livelihoods are generally defined as “comprising the assets, activities and the access to
these (mediated by institutional and social relations) that together determine the living gained
by an individual or households.” Households, and communities develop livelihood strategies
based on common assets that are available and accessible to them, as well as, social networks
a
Performance can be characterized as the ability of firms to adapt and create profitable outcomes.
CHAPTER 2. LITERATURE REVIEW 17

that they can mobilize. (Rakodi, 2014). However, these strategies might come with a price for
entrepreneurs. Family and kinship networks have the potential to generate learning spillovers
(Nordman, 2015). Grimm examined theoretically and empirically the effects of households
and ties on economic outcomes. From the sociological approach, “redistributive pressure”
defines these linkages as constraints for the entrepreneur’s firms. Where the households are
bigger and stronger ties are present, the reallocation of income is stronger. This reallocation
prevents the entrepreneur from investing in their firm.

Gap in the literature

There is a gap in the literature concerning the linkages that exist between the households
and the entrepreneurs. Positive knowledge spillover has been found too. Magruder (2010)
finds that fathers serve as valuable network connections for their male sons in Burkina Faso.
Pasquier-Doumer (2013) has shown that informal entrepreneurs who have family members
involved in the same activity perform better. These spillovers are known as “Intergenerational
Transmission.” However, no study has been found concerning the knowledge spillover from
the youngest members of the household to the entrepreneur. These linkages have not been
studied yet, neither on formal or informal businesses.

2.2 Theoretical Framework

2.2.1 Technology adoption Frameworks


This section focuses on Information and System (IS) approaches referring to technolog-
ical adoption. It is of great significance to highlight that the following frameworks aim to
predict the behavior based on the perceptions of such technologies. Mainly from a marketing
and psychological inspiration, they lack economic validity per se. However, it is essential to
consider them because they add clarity to the complexity of aspects to take into account while
adopting technology.
The dominant model used is the Technology Acceptance Model (Davis 1989). The
model is used in qualitative studies that are largely survey driven. The survey takes the form
of a specific questionnaire used to assess TAM. Commonly using the Likert scale, the items
are, for example: ”From 0 to 5, I would find the technology easy to use.” It contains 12 items to
describe two latent constructs: Perceived Usefulness (PU) and Perceived Ease of Use (PEOU)
(Davis, 1989). TAM is stated on the notion that behavioral intention to use a technology is
determined by these two factors (Ventakesh, 2000). Davis (1989) defines each variable as
follows: Perceived Usefulness: ”The degree to which a person believes that using a particular
CHAPTER 2. LITERATURE REVIEW 18

system would enhance his or her job performance”. Therefore, the potential user is driven by
the belief of benefit, such as increased productivity or the technology’s capacity to enhance
their output. Perceived Ease of Use: ”The degree to which a person believes that using a
particular system would be free of effort” . Therefore, the potential user is driven by the
belief related to the usability of that technology. The main objective of TAM is to predict the
intention to adopt, which is a latent variable; however, it is considered as a reliable predictor
on the actual adoption. The model framework is shown in FigureD.2. This framework has
been applied to several technologies, from e-commerce to cloud-computing. The increasing
popularity of Mobile Money has come with as an increased TAM framework applications.

TAMs application to mobile payment adoption will be the main focus of the following
section. TAM deterministic model has been improved subsequently, adding more factors,
dimensions, and controls variables.
As an extension to TAM and other adoption models (Theory of Planed Behavior, Tech-
nology Task Fit, Theory Organization Environement), Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use
of Technology (UTAUT) shown in Figure D.4 was proposed by Venkatesh in 2003, with the
purpose to integrate the different frameworks into a single one. For space reasons, we are not
going to discuss them all. (for further details, see Appendix D).

Gaps in the IS literature

A review of the literature by Shaikh (2014) examines extensive adoption research evi-
dence on the mixed success of mobile banking in developing economies. He synthesizes the
major theories that researchers have used to predict consumer intentions to adopt. Most of
the research has been done in South East, East Asia, and Anglophone Africa but with less
extent on Francophone Africa. However, much of these studies failed to generate represen-
tative samples. For example, the sample used by Brown (2004) over-represents the young,
educated, living in a more affluent sector of South Africa. With many restrictions, the sam-
ple was limited to those living in Cape Town and thus was not geographically representative.
The survey was done in different malls around the city, targeting mostly those who have cell
phones and bank account. ”A number of malls and shopping centers were visited, where more
than likely, people with cell phones and who have bank accounts would be found” - Brown
(2004). Some online questionnaires were also completed, in order to extend the geographic
profile of the sample but at expenses of loss in reliability. There is an indubitable selection
CHAPTER 2. LITERATURE REVIEW 19

bias in this study due to convenience sampling and the low number of observations.

2.2.2 Economics of Mobile Money


Microeconomic View

From Micro-economic view, the advantages of Mobile Money includes the reduction of
transaction costs, reduction of asymmetries, and increased savings and investments. Addi-
tional benefits include social network promotion and access.
Mobile money reduces the transaction costs of sending and receiving money, especially
given the inadequate transport infrastructure in African countries. Jack and Suri (2014) ob-
serve that in Kenya, households use Mobile Money instead of traveling over 200 km. Ad-
ditional transactions costs include travel time; the coordination of bank operations, between
firms and suppliers or customers, which can be extensive in time and money lost; and the costs
of delays, insecurity aspects due to thefts and“leakages” through corruption or middlemen,
acting like a tax (or complete loss through theft from insecure methods of money transfer).
The savings on transaction costs can be used for investments, or in productive activities. The
money can invested, spent, or saved; the time could have been spent on productive activities.
The electronic delivery of cash transfers, wages, social security funds, and private remittances
by electronic transfer increases the certainty of the timing of cash receipts, which simplify
the payments (Aron, 2017). The reduced transaction costs of remittances might create a more
liberal attitude, generating new consumption and investment opportunities. Such trades were
possible but were limited in scope due to their high intermediation costs and poorly devel-
oped banking sectors. Thus, Mobile Money reduces geographical constraints by allowing
more secure and efficient financial exchanges. (Chaix & Torre, 2016)
Asymmetric information and the costs of servicing of formal accounting are failures of
the formal banking sector to advance credit to poor customers who lack collateral and finan-
cial histories, and creating greater financial transparency. Every deposit, withdrawal, transfer,
or payment transaction through mobile money creates a recorded financial history. This pro-
tects customers rights and fosters trust in business, promoting the growth of efficient payment
networks. Mobile money makes international remittances more affordable and traceable. Tax
collection could be improved through mobile payment, and avoidance reduced through more
visible spending.

An electronic record of payments potentially protects consumers against theft, fraud, and
misinformation. Such protection can reduce transaction costs for consumers and increase the
CHAPTER 2. LITERATURE REVIEW 20

use of business through trust. Greater transparency through records can help regulate the ser-
vice, including the dissemination and posting of information on transaction costs to promote
competition. Recorded transfers with appropriate ID documentation also facilitates cheaper
international remittance transfers. Mature mobile money systems foster the formalization of
the economy, integrating informal sector users into business networks, formal banking and
insurance, and linking to the government through social security, tax, and secure wages pay-
ments (Raccliffe, 2012).
The combination of better communication and coordination with mobile phones and in-
stantaneous mobile payments could improve business planning and efficiency. Indeed, mobile
payments facilitate trade. Access to credit, informally and through banking services linked to
mobile money, can improve investment decisions. (Suri and Jack 2016). There could be more
efficient investment decisions affecting business, education, and skills. Returns to investment
could rise, with feedback to greater savings. (Batista, 2017; Ky, 2017).

Rational View

Mobile Money reduce costs and geographical limitations. From an economic point of
view, if we consider the users as a rational agent, the preference of users is to maximize
their utilities. Choosing M-payment services is logically the only rational option. Because,
the reduction of costs increases the utility of the entrepreneurs. Mobile phone may increase
the demand for mobile money services (Maurer, 2012; Murendo et al., 2017; Della Peruta,
2018). In many African countries, Mobile Money has revolutionized money transfer systems
by reducing the exorbitant monetary and security costs of money transfers with traditional
tools (Aron, 2017; Jack and Suri, 2014; Mas, 2012; Mbiti and Weil, 2016; Morawczynski
and Pickens, 2009). Mobile money not only reduces transaction costs but also increases sav-
ings (Ky et al., 2018), and minimizes the need of costly physical infrastructure as well as
branch networks (Kendall, , 2013). This financial innovation relies on MNOs to guarant the
conversion of cash into electronic money and vice versa for clients.

Supply/ Demand

Supply factors refer to the characteristics and choices of users. Demand factors refer
to forces that are outside of users’ control, such as the cost of MM, suppliers preferences,
clients preferences, sales, and trends. Additionally, mobile money services represent a two-
sided market, between MNOs retailers (supply) and clients (demand) to adopt the service.
(Donovan). Early research by Mas and Morawczynski (2009) focuses on what makes M-
PESA in Kenya successful dividing the analysis into supply and demand factors of adoption.
CHAPTER 2. LITERATURE REVIEW 21

The low MM usage is due to demand-side factors such as lack of users’ skills and users’
attitudes and behaviors. It is due also to supply-side factors such as the high barriers to entry
and low profitability for MNOs.
Additional factors influencing Mobile Money adoption

Social Networks

Murendo (2017) analyses social network effects on the adoption of mobile money among
rural households in Uganda. Showing that information exchanged within social networks
helps to disseminate information about mobile money applications, thus influencing mobile
money adoption. Research has been done on network formation or dissolution, or migra-
tion and remittance decisions using network data (Chuang and Schechter 2015). The size of
networks could be expanded with the greater geographical reach of the transfer mechanism.
Morawczynski and Pickens (2009) note the greater autonomy of rural Kenyan women as they
can more easily ask for funds from their husbands and other contacts in the city.

Human Capital

Informal workers in urban areas with low levels of human capital cannot benefit from
the potentially higher level of available technology. Thus, as the informal sector is as big as
it is, this reduces the speed at which the economy narrows the technological frontier. In other
words, the growth rate of the economy towards its potential steady state is partly dependent
on the quality of human capital and its distribution between formal and informal activities, as
pointed out by, among others, Acemoglu and Zilibotti (2001).

Remittances

International MM remittances
The equipment required by users to implement M-payment exchanges is minimal for
users since most people are equipped with mobile phones and are familiar with their use.
Sometimes described as a “frugal innovation” or “ ubiquitous” (Donovan, 2012). The feature
of M-payment lowers user adoption costs, and increases their utility.
CHAPTER 2. LITERATURE REVIEW 22

2.3 Mobile Money in Africa

2.3.1 Previous Research


Mobile Money adoption: Individuals

Zins (2016), studying globally the determinants of financial inclusion, analyzed the ex-
planatory variables for the adoption of mobile banking in Africa. They observed that the same
determinants that drives mobile banking as traditional banking since all individuals had the
same links to both forms of banking. Education is positively associated with mobile banking.
While gender had mixed results.

Laukkanen (2016) studied the role of demographic factors in mobile acceptance and
using a logit model based on a large sample. He discovered that gender and age are very
significant predictors of the adoption decision. Similarly, the study conducted by Laforet and
Li (2005) in China reveals that men are more users of m-banking than women. This study
shows that users are not necessarily young and well-educated people. Laforet and Li (2005)
also noticed that the lack of understanding of the benefits of m-banking as a major barrier
to acceptance. However, Gichuki (2018), focused on the awareness and adoption of women
entrepreneurs in Kenya, found that M-Banking has helped to include those women financially.

Riquelme and Rios (2010) examined the role of gender in the decision of adopting m-
banking in Singapore. On a sample of more than 600 electronic banking users, they high-
lighted the factors explaining the acceptance of m-banking. They found that social norms are
essential in the adoption of it and that their influence is more important for women than for
men.

MM on firms

Gosavi (2015) investigated the characteristics of firms in East Africa and the use of mo-
bile money. In an attempt to understand what types of firms adopt mobile money and why they
do so he founds that smaller and older firms and firms with a bank account are more likely
to use mobile money than larger and younger firms. He argues that older firms have longer
business relationships with their suppliers and customers, while larger firms face constraints
in the functioning of the service’s ease of use and usefulness.

Similarly, Mas and Ng’weno (2012) found that large firms in the formal sector in Kenya
are less likely to use mobile money compared to small and informal firms. They argue that
CHAPTER 2. LITERATURE REVIEW 23

several barriers are affecting larger firms’ decision to adopt mobile money. First, there is
no system for keeping records of transactions, receipt, posing problems for the accounting
system. Firms fear fraud and theft, as the system does not have any mechanism to handle
misidentified transactions. Second, at the time of this study, transfers of funds from a mobile
money account to a firm’s account could take up to four days, while checks would take only
two days. Another common barrier is that the agents do not have the MM necessary for more
massive transaction amounts

Gaps

Critical flaws are summarised by Aron (2019), Di Castri (2013) and Klein and Mayer
(2011).
Many of these studies are reviewed and considered not reliable according to Aron(2018).
She highlights the technical problems of endogeneity. Faced by ambiguous causality, omit-
ted variables or unobserved heterogeneity: the mobile money usage dummy, and the use of
various methods to mitigate this are not always convincing.

2.3.2 Financial Inclusion


Dermish (2012) argues that branchless banking takes the advantage of increasingly mo-
bile networks to bring banking services into every day retails stores, thereby alleviating the
lack of banking infrastructure in the area where poor people live and work. This may in return
allow banks to provide them the right formal financial products (Mas, 2012). Indeed, mobile
money allows the excluded from formal financial system to perform financial transactions rel-
atively cheaply, and securely (Demirguc-kunt and Klapper, 2012; Dermish et al., 2012; Mbiti
and Weil, 2015). In this perspective, mobile money can be considered as a stepping stone to
formal financial services by increasing the likelihood of individuals to use formal deposit ac-
counts. Ky (2018) gives special attention the role played by Mobile Money to overcome barri-
ers that prevent people to access formal financial services. He investigates the evidence on the
substitutability and/or complementarity effects of mobile money on the use of formal and/or
informal financial instruments is still lacking. Access to financial services through mobile
money has received much attention from organizations such as the World Bank, and United
Nations. (Findex, 2017). Despite the broad enthusiasm for mobile money, critical voices
have begun to emerge (Fall, 2019; Ky, 2015; Morawczynski 2009). Morawczynski (2009)
in a fieldwork in Kenya describes how M-PESA acts as a complement rather than a substi-
tute to other deposit/saving mechanisms such as banks, home bank and ROSCA. However,
Morawczynski and Pickens (2009) also argue that individuals use M-PESA as a substitute for
CHAPTER 2. LITERATURE REVIEW 24

informal methods of savings, especially keeping money at home. The optimistic discourse
of Mobile Money is getting debunked (Hove, 2019). Further studies needs to examine the at
what extent it can improve financial inclusion.

Mobile Money and Inequality

Asongu (2017) argues that ICT reduces inequality. While examining 48 countries in
Africa for the periods 2004–2014, he finds that Mobile money can be an effective tool for
economic development when it is sustainable and inclusive. The findings suggest that mobile
penetration is pro-poor, as it has a positive income equality effect. These findings are consis-
tent with the position that the underlying benefits are more relevant in poor households than
in rich households. Many studies have recommended enhancing mobile money among the
formerly unbanked population (Gichuki, 2018; Shaikh, 2015; Tchamyou, 2019). However,
we must remember that as a tool, it has its limitations. For financial inclusion to be truly
universal, an integrated strategy including social change, technological skills, and regulatory
considerations must be pursued, so mobile money diminishes existing inequalities of financial
access rather than augmenting them.
As the literature of mobile money develops, more studies need to focus on the level of
inequality of mobile money adoption. Which can be mistaken by barriers, determinants of
non-adoption or even technology exclusion.
Chapter 3

Data

3.1 Data Survey


The main empirical analysis for this research is performed using the Orange-LAM sur-
vey conducted in Senegal. This survey is cross-sectional, and the statistical units are en-
trepreneurs based in urban Dakar. The information collected concerns entrepreneurs as well
as their primary activity, thus focusing on entrepreneurs who have an informal productive ac-
tivity.
This comprehensive survey provides detailed information on entrepreneurs, as well as, on
their households including socio-demographic, and living conditions. It also includes detailed
information about their business characteristics and economic performances such as receipts,
working conditions, assets, expenditures, clients, workers, and suppliers. It also provides
information about ICT usages and perceptions. Finally, a qualitative survey based on focus
groups was made to enlighten how entrepreneurs understand or feel about their situations and
environments. The latter is used to establish a baseline and analyze trends of usages (Berrou,
2017). However, we focus mainly on the quantitative data on sociodemographic characteris-
tics, living conditions at the household level, and business characteristics.

First-hand quantitative data was collected in April and May 2017 from 500 informal
firms, which includes novel business and mobile money usage questions. The questionnaire
was constructed to cover both the economic specifics of informal production units and the is-
sues related to access and diversity of mobile uses. In this study, an entrepreneur is classified
as a mobile money user if it has used mobile money services in the past 12 months before the
survey. This classification follows the specifications in Kikulwe (2014). It is important to note
that this definition is not consensual among the literature. While Aron (2017) considers a re-
stricted 90-day definition, Kiconco (2018) defines it without a time restriction. Other authors

25
CHAPTER 3. DATA 26

do not give an exact and precise definitions of adoption (Kirui, 2013, Mbiti and Weil 2016).

The sample was built using the quotas method. The balance accross gender, geographic
location, and sector of business respect the same share as the ANSD 2016 survey . The num-
bers were constructed according to the 2016 National Survey of Informal Production Units in
Senegal (ENUPIS) and the 2012 Senegal Poverty Monitoring Survey (ESPS). (table)

The criteria of selection were made respecting the recommendations of the Economic
and Statistical Observatory of Sub-Saharan Africa: ”any activity, unregistered or devoid of
formal written accounting, carried out as a main or secondary job, by a person as a boss or
at his own account. All the activities considered do not have a NINEA ( National Identifica-
tion Number of Enterprises and Association) or any formal accounting according to SYSCOA
(Système Comptable Ouest-Africain). For practical and operational reasons, the fixed and vis-
ible UPIs of the Dakar region were investigated excluding any agricultural, animal, forestry,
and fishery activity. Commercial activities, such as street trading, without a fixed location
were excluded from the survey. Each entrepreneur interviewed is then considered as ”head of
informal production unit” (Berrou, 2017).

Survey Methodology

Importance of the perceptions of the surveyor Nevertheless, it is essential to highlight


the reliability given by the surveyors to each interviewee. The seriousness of the responses
provided by the respondents was mostly ”Good” or ”Excellent” (respectively 68 % and 23
%).

3.2 Summary Statistics

3.2.1 Characteristics of the Units of Production


In order to get a clear picture, the overall informal sector is structured into four branches:
production, commerce, services, and food sector (sale and preparation). The largest part is
constituted by services, which covers 40 % of the informal sector, while the production indus-
try consists of 24.4 %.

The average age of an informal business in Dakar is 9.9 years. However, the median
age of a business is seven years. Looking at the age distribution of the production units,
CHAPTER 3. DATA 27

25% were created before 2000 while only 5% before 1980. This distribution is highly skewed
to the right (1.57). Portraying this positive skewness, can give a idea of informal firm survival.

While considering the four branches separately, the firms in the production sub-sector
are the most numerous among the older businesses in the overall selection. Considering the
age and capital intensity, it is not surprising that older firms have the most capital. As produc-
tion tends to be a capital intensive sector, these results go hand in hand. One could also con-
clude that more prolonged survival is correlated with more efficient use of capital. Services,
on the other hand, outnumbers both production and commerce by double when considering
the younger production units. This could visualize the observed belief that the informal ser-
vices sector is preferred among the younger and uneducated workforce.

Only around half of all the informal production units have access to electricity, water, or
fixed location. Based on the above reasoning, it is assumable that the production sub-sector
dominates the part that benefits from these resources. Regarding the commercial part of the
informal sector, a vast majority (25%) of the businesses do not have a fixed location. Retailers
might choose to refrain from the expense of a fixed location, aware of the short life of their
businesses. Alternatively, the other way around; due to lack of a fixed location, the businesses
are unable to survive. However, commercial businesses are conducted at markets, and thus, a
fixed location is not needed.

3.2.2 Characteristics of the Workforce


The average production unit in the informal sector of Dakar employs 1.9 persons. Divid-
ing the sector into the four branches; production, services, commerce, and food sector, occupy
2.9, 2.1, 0.8 and 1.4 persons, respectively. Presented another way, 43% of all production units
are self-employed while only 10% employ more than five workers. As already mentioned, the
number of units is vast. Thus, despite the low number of employees per unit, the informal
sector is still the main provider of work opportunities in Dakar. One of the reasons for being
informal is to escape bureaucratic procedures, taxes, and labor law explains Benjamin (2014).

This is visualized by the fact that four percent of the informal sector employees (self-
employed not included) in Dakar have a written contract. None are covered by social security
benefits, insurances and labor laws. Although being a work provider, the entrepreneur is not
necessarily a monetary salary provider. Table 1 shows the different types and distribution of
remuneration. Not surprisingly, the most considerable part is made up of self-employees i.e
CHAPTER 3. DATA 28

Table 3.1: Age by area of birth

Area of birth
Age Rural Urban Total

Less than 25 5.52 4.34 9.86


25-34 23.47 15.98 39.45
35-49 18.74 16.37 35.11
50-64 7.50 5.52 13.02
More than 65 1.18 1.38 2.56

Total 56.41 43.59 100.00

Orange-LAM survey

the entrepreneurs. The group consists of independent production units, not affected by labor
laws and employment contracts. This is the easiest way to run an informal business. The
largest type of remuneration is monthly salary at all (97 out of 127). The remuneration (or
the lack of it) can be compensated by, e.g. food and room. This is more of a life-supporting
business rather than production intended to grow and generate future dividends.
Based from the localization of informal firms and the number of users of mobile money
in each arrondisement, a ratio of Mobile Money users was created. The ratio indicates that
Guediawayne, Pikine Dagoudane et Rufisque-Est has the more users (controlling for the num-
ber of UPIs in each arrondissement). These three arrondissements have a ratio of 1:2 , com-
pared to Grand Dakar that has a ratio of 3:4 . This indicator needs to be interpreted carefully
because its is not a indicator of the density of Mobile Money users, but rather an indicator that
shows the share of Mobile Money users compared to non-users . The indicator was created as
it follows: P
M M usersarrondissement
M M ratioarrondissement = P
U P Iarrondissement

3.3 Indicators
The construction of the indicators in our model will be explained. The main assump-
tions while choosing variables of interest and giving some interpretation guidelines will be
described. The indicators were categorized in four different groups (Dependent Variable, De-
mographic, Socio-economic, and Firm characteristic). A descriptive table presenting the main
variables is presented in A.1. Followed by the summary statistics in A.2.
CHAPTER 3. DATA 29

Table 3.2: Sample Breakdown by Gender, Age, Place of birth, Education and Sector.

Variable Category Proportion Std. Err.


Sex Male .5759369 .0219699
Female .4240631 .0219699

Age <25 .0986193 .0132544


25;34 .3944773 .0217271
35;49 .3510848 .021219
50;64 .1301775 .0149592
65< .025641 .0070267

Born in urbain .5641026 .0220443


rural .4358974 .0220443

Education Aucune Scolarité .1577909 .016206


Ecole Coranique .2366864 .0188957
Ecole Primaire .3195266 .0207293
College .1360947 .0152433
Lycee .1065089 .013714
Supérieur .0433925 .0090573

Sector Production/ Extraction .3313609 .0209253


Services .4003945 .0217822
Commerce .2682446 .0196958

Table 3.3: Descriptive Statistics of Mobile Money Usage.

Variable Category Proportion Std. Err.


Domestic N/A .037415 .0110869
Send MM .1258503 .019377
Receive MM .1496599 .0208408
Send and receive MM .6870748 .0270887

International
N/A .7176871 .0262966
Send MM .0340136 .0105896
Receive MM .1734694 .0221211
Send and receive MM .0748299 .0153714

Bills
N/A .4115646 .0287498
Send MM .4591837 .0291128
Receive MM .0408163 .0115594
Send and receive MM .0884354 .0165872
CHAPTER 3. DATA 30

Table 3.4: Differences in means

Variable NON-MMpro MMpro Diff

Age 36.89 37.25 0.360


[0.82] [0.61] [1.000]
Femme 0.44 0.41 -0.030
[0.03] [0.03] [0.045]
Urban 0.42 0.45 0.031
[0.03] [0.03] [0.045]
Banked 0.34 0.56 0.220***
[0.03] [0.03] [0.044]
Logcam 12.20 12.92 0.726***
[0.08] [0.07] [0.110]
Workspace 1.62 2.32 0.700***
[0.09] [0.07] [0.112]
Hhsize 6.55 7.12 0.568
[0.32] [0.31] [0.453]
Hcat 1.45 1.97 0.522***
[0.06] [0.05] [0.081]
E 3.14 4.05 0.915***
[0.12] [0.10] [0.157]
Q 2.10 2.88 0.786***
[0.11] [0.08] [0.128]
N 213 294 507

Significance levels: * <10% ** <5% *** <1%


Standard errors in parentheses
CHAPTER 3. DATA 31

Figure 3.1: Ratio of MMuse in Dakar

SEN_adm3
Ratio of MMpro usage
0,448 - 0,502
0,502 - 0,552
0,552 - 0,659
0,659 - 0,742
senegal_administrative

Source: LAM-Orange Survey (2017)


CHAPTER 3. DATA 32

Dependent Variables

Three dependent variables that are three dummy variables taking value one respectively
for entrepreneurs who adopt mobile money services, which adoption for professional usage
and who adopt m-payments were reviewed. An entrepreneur adopts m-payments if he/she
sends mobile money to pay bills and suppliers in a professional context. An entrepreneur
is defined to have adopted Mobile Money if he/she reports having a Mobile Money account
opened a year or less before the interview. (See section 4.4 to the robustness checks).
The means of these three dependent variables using the main sample are reported in Table 92.7
% of entrepreneurs have adopted Mobile Money services, 57,9% adopted for professional
usage, and only 34.12% of entrepreneurs reported to pay bills and suppliers using MM.
MMuse. Adoption of Mobile Money indicates whether the entrepreneur uses or does
not use Mobile Money for any purpose. In this case, it measures Mobile Money adoption. A
total of 469 of 507 were identified. that represent 92.7% from the sample.
MMpro. Among the users, those who use Mobile Money for business purposes and
those who do not were differentiated. A total of 294 of 507 were identified. MMf. Among
the users of Mobile Money for business purposes, those who use it to pay suppliers (or bills)
were differentiated. A total of 173 of 507 were identified.
MMcategorical. As an approach to disentangle the process of adoption, a categorical
variable for Mobile Money adoption was defined. It represents each level of MM adoption the
adoption process. Starting from 0, and regrouping those who do not have yet adopted Mobile
Money; the ”category 1” regroups those who have adopted MM, represent in MMuse; the
”category 2” re-groups those who have adopted for business purposes represented by MMpro,
and finally, 4 represents those who have adopted M-payments.

Demographics

The variables related to the demographic characteristics of the entrepreneur are included.
These variables are time-invariant.
The year of birth was calculated from the age of the entrepreneur at the survey. Another
measure of age was constructed - the standardized indicator ranging from -2 to 2 is called
BYR. It needs to be interpreted as a cohort indicator. It will be helpful will controlling for
the interaction terms. Inspired by the works of Buis (2011), he catches the interaction effect
of a cohort by giving the value 0. For example, if we are interested in the effect of having
a banking account for men born in 1985 in the final transition. The variable formal banking
account in our model is interacted with the variable BYR, which will be 0 when a respondent
is born in 1985. The gender of the entrepreneur was introduced. Males were coded with ”0”
CHAPTER 3. DATA 33

and females with ”1”.


Focusing on internal migrants, i.e. entrepreneurs that migrated from rural areas or
secondary cities to the economic capital and started an informal business, we included two
indicators in the model. Dakar Region is the place of birth of 50% entrepreneurs in the
survey; this indicator shows the amount of entrepreneurs born in Dakar. Those born outside
Dakar were coded ”0” and those born in Dakar with ”1”. Another aspect of the immigration in
the Senegalese capital is the rate of rural migrants. Those who were born in rural areas might
have a different background than those born in urban areas. A dummy variable is created to
account for this rural push -urban pull migration (Chort, 2012).
Research regarding ethnicity attitudes has focused on hierarchical ethnics among the
Senegalese, as mentioned in the introduction of Minard (2009). The differential adoption
according to ethnic backgrounds were evaluated and a ”dummy” variable to measure race/
ethnicity was constructed. Those who came from Wolof were coded ”1” and if not with ”0”.

Socio-Economic Characteristics

In this category, the socio-economic characteristics at the entrepreneur or household


level are considered.
Academic. From the survey, the schooling indicator represented by six levels of educa-
tional attainment was used: no schooling, literacy (less than primary), Koran school, primary
level, middle level, secondary level, and superior studies. The levels on the following cate-
gories were aggregated: no schooling, primary, secondary, and higher. Progress is achieved
when completing one category and reaching the next one. However, in Senegal, the educa-
tional infrastructure is weak, and thus, this indicator is not a reliable measure of the quality of
education.
Training. From the survey, the technical formation indicator, represented by six levels
of educational attainment was used: no schooling, literacy (less than primary), Koran school,
primary level, middle level, secondary level, and superior studies. The levels on the follow-
ing categories were aggregated: no schooling, primary, secondary, and higher. Progress is
achieved when completing one category and reaching the next one.
Formal & Vocational Training. This indicator provides a measure of entrepreneurs
educational or vocational training pathway, and thus serves as a broader measure of the Hu-
man Capital. It includes both the highest SCHOOL level attained and technical formation
received outside of the educative system. Among other reasons, EDUC is a better measure
than accounting both variables separately, as this indicator includes those entrepreneurs who
have dropped school but did technical training instead, and thus cannot have invested in their
Human Capital. (See Table ??)
CHAPTER 3. DATA 34

Table 3.5: Academic Formation vs. Technical Training

TECHNICAL
SCHOOL None Via school Technical Total
None 9.47 0.20 0.00 9.66
Technical only 0.00 0.00 6.11 6.11
Primary Only 22.68 2.76 0.00 25.44
Primary+Technical 0.00 0.00 30.18 30.18
Secondary Only 11.24 4.54 0.00 15.78
Secondary+Technical 0.00 0.00 8.48 8.48
Higher 1.38 1.97 0.99 4.34
Total 44.77 9.47 45.76 100.00

Figure 3.2: Educational Pathway

Modified version of Buis (2011)

The indicator EDUC using the two categorical variables was created: School and Tech-
nical. The choice of categories is based on the proposed indicator for assessing technical and
vocational training from UNESCO. This indicator is illustrated in Figure 3.2, which describes
this process as a sequence steps. For example: (1) whether to finish secondary education or
to leave school with only primary education and (2) whether or not to finish higher education
given that one finished secondary education. Additional pathways were added to the Buis
(2011) version, to include the vocational and technical education.
Household size.The first family background measures the size of the household, repre-
sented by the number of persons living under the same roof. Kuziemko (2014) found signif-
icant learning effects from the children to their parents. The household size is a measure of
a latent variable of this kind of knowledge spillover, from the bottom up. However, it needs
to be interpreted with care, since a more significant household might be correlated with lower
socio-economic status because of the impossibility of owning a house.
Father works at Formal Sector The second family background measure is the formal
work done by the respondents’ father (Magruder, 2010). The working experience from the
father can enhance the entrepreneurs capacity to adopt M-payment was assumed. Berrou
CHAPTER 3. DATA 35

Table 3.6: EDUC variable categories

EDUC Freq. Percent Cum.

None 49 9.66 9.66


Technical only 31 6.11 15.78
Primary Only 129 25.44 41.22
Primary+Technical 153 30.18 71.40
Secondary Only 80 15.78 87.18
Secondary+Technical 43 8.48 95.66
Higher 22 4.34 100.00

Total 507 100.00

(2017) found significant effects while accounting for this variable. We consider this variable
as a measure of another kind knowledge spillover, this time, from the top down.
House quality Inspired by the household wealth index by Murendo(2015), our own
housing index to measure the quality of living at the household level was developed using
factor analysis based on variables related to housing quality (electricity and night lightning),
water and sanitation (water source) and household physical assets (ownership of transport
vehicle). Table presents the descriptive information of variables used to construct the housing
index and their factor loadings. a One factor with an eigenvalue greater than one was extracted
explaining 94% of the total variation. Given that all the included variables are strictly related
to households’ quality of living status, the first factor explaining 94% of the total variation
is assumed to be our measure of housing quality (McKenzie, 2005). Kaiser–Meyer–Olkin
measure of sampling adequacy is 0.7 and Bartlett’s test of sphericity has a value of 538.575
(df = 66, P ¡ .000) indicating that the model fit is appropriate.
For comparison reasons, a categorical housing quality variable ranging from 0 to 3 was
designed. The variable is coded ”0”, when the household does not possess any of the vari-
ables aforementioned; the variable is coded ”3”, if the household possess all of the variables
aforementioned. The variable coding depends on the number of assets of each household.
Group A group was created as a ”dummy” variable, if the entrepreneur is a member
of an association or confrerie was coded ”1”. This variable might measure social network
access. Since those groups are founded to promote fraternal mutual assistance.

Business Characteristics

This category of variables will consist of those variables specific to the activity.
a
:
CHAPTER 3. DATA 36

Figure 3.3: Income Level of the Sample

6.114%

10.85%
30.37%

31.56%

21.1%

Less than 50000 FCFA 50000-100000


100000-300000 300000-500000
More than 500000 FCFA

Age Activity It indicates the age of the firm, whereas there is low survival rate of in-
formal business, the maturity of the firm shows the abilities and skills of the entrepreneurs.
These skills can take the form of adaptation to new technologies in order to survive against
the concurrence.
Sector Activity According to Deem-Swarray (2014), the International Standard Indus-
trial Classification is unsuitable for informal firms. In this respect, the sectorial activities were
classified in the following sectors of activity: production, trade, sales, and processing of food
and services. This classification is also used by Berrou (2017) and Gramstrom (2012).
LogCAM
The utility function to address the “turnover” is prompt from Mincer (1974) and Berrou
(2010).
log(Πi ) = α + βL ∗ log(Li ) + βK ∗ log(Ki ) + βX ∗ (Xi ) + εi

The logarithmic transformation of the CA seasonally harmonized is used. Comparing


the MCO regressions, this variable has the biggest R2 , explaining more variance of the gain
functions compared to other productive variables (Berrou, 2017). Important to highlight is
the fact that among the control variables included in the function, adopting M-payment might
also be an explanatory variable of high log(CAM ) (Aron, 2018). In the Robustness Check
Section, the argument of the potential issue of double causality is discussed.
Categorical CAM Inspired by the categorization used in Fall (2015), the CAM was
ranked in 5 categories. The cut offs are: from 0 to 50000 FCFA, 50000-100000 FCFA,100000-
300000 FCFA,300000-500000 FCFA, and more than 500000 FCFA. See Figure 3.3.
As shown in Figure ??, a high proportion of the sample (80%) had a monthly income
CHAPTER 3. DATA 37

above 100,000 CFA Francs (the equivalent of $206 USD). Thirty percent of the sampled
entrepreneurs earned more than 500,000 CFA Francs ($ 1,028 USD) per month, and 31%
had an income between 100,000 and 300,000 CFA Francs. Only a small proportion (6%)
had an income less than 50,000 FCFA ($103 USD) CFA Francs. Compared to Fall (2015),
there is a considerable higher level of income in the sample, which may lead to different
adoption rate. Indeed, using Mobile Money in payment and transfer services, often requires a
minimum income. The sample from Fall (2015) might underestimates the adoption rates. On
the contrary, in this sample an overestimation of the actual adoption might be made.
Workspace Multiple inspirations have preceded the measure of the characterization of
the working facilities. (Lavallée and Roubaud, 2011; Grimm, 2012; Berrou, 2017) This indi-
cator ranks the working facilities from 0 to 3 based on the material of construction in a facility.
A local hard made with bricks equals to 3, a local build with wood equals to 2, a with more
precarious premises equals to 2, and activities carried out under canvas, or outdoors (equal to
0). However, commercial businesses might be conducted at markets, and thus, a fixed location
is not needed (Granstrom, 2009). From the sample, 160 UPIs have their activity at a market
location.

Proxies

Potential proxies for Human Capital are discussed in the following category. Q: Cog-
nitive Skills During the survey, the entrepreneurs took a 4-question test to address their cog-
nitive capacities. Results from this test were used to construct a Cognitive score. Berrou
(2017) has previously used the scores to address a measure of Human Capital of the survey
entrepreneurs. In the current analyses, the scores are used to measure academic aptitude. They
are calculated based on the number of correct answers, from zero to four, and then converted
into the categories.
E: Entrepreunarial Skills The Entrepreneurial Skills Score measures entrepreneurial
initiatives. The score ranks from 0 to 8 based on eight questions. The questions aim to
measure the attitudes of the entrepreneurs and deals with their capacity to keep balances, do
sales analytics, strategic planning, logistics, management, and business partnerships. Thus, if
an individual commonly performs each of these actions as part of his activity, he gets a score
of 8 points, if he does not achieve any will score 0 (Berrou, 2017).

Cluster

From the Figure 1.4, the departments in Dakar are classified accordingly to their popu-
lation density. The departments welcome different socio-economic actors and thus can affect
CHAPTER 3. DATA 38

the economic dynamics of UPI (Berrou, 2017). The department of each unit of production is
considered a cluster (Berrou, 2017; Della Peruta, 2015; Gramstrom,2012). In the seqlogit, the
option cluster is specified accounting for the location of the UPI b

Omitted variables

From a behavioral approach (discussed previously in the literature review), Lesa (2016)
found that social norm is the most determining factor regarding behavioral intention to use and
adopt mobile-payment systems. Previous research by Phonthanukitithaworn (2014), indicates
that people’s willingness to use mobile money increases with the encouragement of friends
and family, partners, and colleges. Applying the TAM in a sample of urban poor in Pakistan,
Kazi and Mannan (2013) find that social influence significantly affects the adoption of mobile
banking, in addition to perceived risk and ease-of-use. The survey LAM-Orange should be
complemented with TAM specific questionnaire corresponding to qualitative and perceptions
questions. These perceptions variables might be considered as de jure rather than de facto but
still might affect the the relationship between the dependent variable and the included de facto
explanatory variables. To some extent, this is accounted for a possible bias in the regressions.

b
Clustered standard errors are for accounting for situations where observations WITHIN each group are not
i.i.d. (independently and identically distributed).
Chapter 4

Empirical Analysis

4.1 Sequential Logit Model


A sequential logistic model modeled the process of adoption. Seqlogit expands on the
traditional logistic regression model to take account of the sub-samples that are “at risk” of
making transitions. An excerpt from the Buis (2008) sequential model concerning education
states that ”only the people who have finished high school are at risk of entering college, and
only those who have entered college are at risk of attaining a college degree”- (Buis 2008).
While the model estimates conditional logistic regressions simultaneously, these regressions
can be fitted individually (Agresti 1990; Maclean, 2010). Other empirical applications of a
sequential process: O’Rand, and Heneratta (1982) analyzed the decision of retiring using the
same sequential logic, while Maclean (2010) analyzed the combat occupation of soldiers. a
The general model is shown in the following equation:

eα1 +β1 Xi
p̂1,i = |passki−1 = 1
1 + eα1 +β1 Xi
where X represents a matrix of explanatory variables, β represents a vector of estimated
parameters linking the explanatory variables to the outcome, and α represents the constant
for the outcome. P asski−1 indicates whether or not a person has passed the previous tran-
sition.(See Apendix B for the mathematical proof). The following analyses include three
transitions (k = 1, 2, 3), where 1 represents the transition into MM adoption, 2 represents the
MM adoption for business purposes, and 3 represents the transition into M-payments. The
model is estimated in Stata using the package developed by Buis (2007).
The model has previously been used to study process of Mobile Money Adoption as
a
Several names have been given to it: sequential response model (Maddala 1983), continuation ratio logit
(Agresti 2002), Model for nested dichotomies (Fox, 1997), and the Mare Model (Shavit and Blossfeld, 1993;
Mare, 1981). For simplification purposes, we will call it SeqLogit as it is called in the Stata user-written package.

39
CHAPTER 4. EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS 40

an empirical example of the sequential process of Mobile Money adoption, as Fall (2015)
analyzed the sequential nature of M-banking adoption using a seqlogit model. The model
represents a tree with three nodes and each node is composed by two branches. The sequential
process is shown in Section 1.1. Unlike most studies of adoption that only focus on the
outcome, Fall (2015) examines the process. It centers on the low income populations in
Senegal and showed that educated people with entrepreneurial skills were more likely to adopt
mobile money than those who do not. The results show that age is the only determining factor
in the first stage of adoption(”knowledge” of M-banking). In the second phase (‘possession’
of M-banking), cognitive factors appeared significant, such as literacy, education level, as well
as financial factors such as membership in a ROSCA (rotating credit and savings scheme) . At
the final stage, the variables of education level, wages and owning a business were involved
in the adoption of M-banking.
The analysis of the three phases of M-banking adoption–knowledge, ownership, and
adoption– instead of one single decision, shows the probability of transitioning from one
stage to another. It corresponds to the effect of an individual’s socio-economic characteristics
weighted by the expected utility after passing to the next the stage. The risk of passing the
stage, and the variance of the indicator determines wherever to pass or not pass. At each step
of the process, the characteristics of the individual affect the probability of transitioning to the
next level. (Buis, 2011). Therefore, the same logic of nested transitions applies to the process
by which entrepreneurs decide to adopt MM. Only entrepreneurs who have adopted MM for
business purposes are at risk of adopting MM to pay their suppliers. In the language of the
model, entrepreneurs who did not have a MM account were not at risk of using it for business
purposes nor M-payments.
Entrepreneurs who adopt MM were at risk both of adoption MM for business purposes
and of adopting M-payments. They have accomplished the first transition but not the second.
Similarly, entrepreneurs who have adopted M-payments to pay their suppliers were at risk
both of adopting MM and adopting it for business purposes. They have completed both tran-
sitions. Figure 2 shows a schematic of the model, which is based on the processes outlined in
Figure 1.
The virtue of the model in the current case is that entrepreneurs can only adopt m-
payment if they have a MM account and uses it for business purposes. However, the factors
that affect the decisions regarding the MM adoption, MM adoption for business purposes and
M-payments are assumed to be independent. The transitions are shown in equation (B.6).
MM Adoption can be measured in a variety of ways, and these different measures tend
to lead to seemingly different conclusions. This paper will focus on two of these approaches
of mobile money: the association between covariates and probabilities of passing from one
CHAPTER 4. EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS 41

usage to the next and the determinants of the adoption of m-payments to suppliers.. These
will be called the process of mobile money adoption (MMprocess) and the outcome of adopt-
ing m-payments for business purposes (M-payment), respectively, while MM adoption will
be used as a generic term.

MMprocess focuses on the process of adopting mobile money. Attaining a professional


usage of mobile money is something that typically happens over different periods and is usu-
ally split up into different steps, for example using mobile money for business or personal
use, to pay the suppliers. Knowing the influence of demographic factors and business charac-
teristics at each of these transitions can give a complete picture of how the actual M-payment
adoption.

M-payment focuses on the back end of the adoption process, which is in our of interest
as this result, shows the associations and determinant factors at the last step of the whole
Mobile Money adoption process.

4.2 Results
This section reports our main results. Figure 4.1 presents the probabilities to pass to
the next transition. Table ?? shows the estimates at each transition of the process of mobile
money adoption.
While SeqLogit can also be estimated by estimating multiple logit models. This package
serves three additional purposes: First, it makes it easier to test hypotheses across transitions
since the entire model is estimated simultaneously. Second, it implements the decomposition
proposed by Buis (2010a) of the effect of an explanatory variable on the outcome, which will
be useful for our analysis to determine the significance of the factors. Third, it implements a
sensitivity analysis to investigate the potential influence of unobserved heterogeneity, which
will be useful for robustness. For this last purpose, Seqlogit package allows the estimation of
multiple scenario concerning unobserved variables.

4.3 Results
The results are shown in Table 4.1.
The model identified entrepreneurial skills and the log(cam) as the main determinants
of adopting Mobile Money for any purpose. Apart from these variables, no other factors sig-
nificantly appeared as key determinants in the first stage of the adoption process. Additionally,
CHAPTER 4. EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS 42

Figure 4.1: Sequential adoption process

Adoption Process
Ricardo Henriquez | April 30, 2019

MM payment
profesionnal users
(N=135)
p3

MM profesionnal
users(N=294)
p2 Do not use MM
1-p3 payment for
MM Users (N=469) profesionnal use
(N=159)
1-p2
p1
Sample
MM non professional
users (N=175)
(N=507)
1-p1

MM Non- Users
(N=38)
CHAPTER 4. EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS 43

Table 4.1: Sequential Logit (Reduced Form)

Mmcat Mmuse Mmpro Mmpay


b/se b/se b/se
1 2 3v0 2 3v1 3v2
Urban .2434144 .705858** .1396642
(.5132561) (.2221394) (.3088371)
Banked .0824618 .040559 1.167751***
(.3943354) (.2955117) (.1717815)
None 0 0 0
(.) (.) (.)
Technical only .0654687 .4633896 2.555866
(.6433567) (.552983) (1.329387)
Primary Only .9000359* .1431247 2.605204*
(.4272548) (.3113799) (1.226614)
Primary+Technical .7957268 .6931507 2.316729
(.470227) (.3893598) (1.484883)
Secondary Only .6982124 .392191 3.170284**
(1.088318) (.4758748) (1.161134)
Secondary+Technical .2201225 1.282025 2.265365
(.8302852) (.699564) (1.268558)
Higher -.8549009 .6875135 2.788074
(.4716048) (.5208131) (1.42458)
Father Formal Work .0767718 1.055713* .0295959
(.4271601) (.4840705) (.4313824)
House cat. .1953722 .4332564** .0051131
(.2188093) (.1422196) (.147627)
Production 0 0 0
(.) (.) (.)
Services -1.512383** -1.114408* -.7364034*
(.5473661) (.506835) (.3677586)
Commerce -.3033221 -.3423445 -1.166876***
(1.178596) (.569622) (.3235511)
Food -.9621417 -.9435451* -.5114628*
(.6139307) (.4294684) (.237478)
Logcam .4265367* .3175178** .1355351
(.1957012) (.1021915) (.1836181)
Workspace .0157847 .211124* .2613988
(.1486378) (.0858684) (.1683087)
Q .2264316 .1878946* .3743315***
(.1687897) (.0749127) (.0881544)
E .1728689* .1932167*** .1013791
(.0682411) (.0401867) (.0878078)
cons -3.729164 -6.039728*** -6.0284*
(2.190161) (1.389255) (2.616289)

* p0.1; ** p0.05; *** p0.01; **** p0.001


CHAPTER 4. EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS 44

the education variable cannot determine adoption significantly. However using dummies for
each category identifies: having finished at least primary (see table ??), as a significant
factor increasing the probability of Mobile Money adoption. This result is consistent with the
descriptive analysis and shows that over 95% of entrepreneurs surveyed have already adopted
Mobile Money for any purpose. The low proportion of entrepreneurs who do not have adopted
Mobile Money concerns entrepreneurs with lower entrepreneurial skills, as it is shown in Fig-
ure 4.2. At this stage of the process, factors related to education, household, and age do not
come in. This is consistent with the channel through which entrepreneurs adopt innovation
depending on their personality traits and skills (Kerr, 2017).
From the second stage of the process: the adoption of Mobile Money for business
purposes- shows the importance of cognitive factors such as the significance of the cogni-
tive test score. However, education (schooling or technical formation) is not. Having ex-
cellent entrepreneurial skills is also a key determinant. The skills positively influenced the
professional use of mobile money, and this influence was significant at 0.1%. This variable
appears to be the most significant in the first and second stages of the process, which can be
explained by the adequate use of mobile phone services for business purposes. The log(cam)
increased the probability even more, and this influence was very significant (1%). Indeed,
even if Mobile Money is relatively cheap, and thus the economic barrier to entry is low, hav-
ing higher income is positively correlated with the adoption of Mobile Money. The sector
of activity also appeared to be a factor that influences professional use, with a significance
level of 5%. In fact, compared to the production sector, being in the services, commerce and
food sales sectors decreases this probability. As well, the quality of living conditions and the
workspace appeared to be determinants of Mobile Money for professional use. There is no
clear frontier between the household (personal) and workplace (professional) conditions. The
fusion of environments appears to be a characteristic found in the informal sector (Williams,
2012). Having a father that had worked on the formal sector positively influence professional
use. Indeed, this can be interpreted as a knowledge spillover or “intergenerational transmis-
sion” - a term found in Pasquier-Doumer (2017). Being Wolof and urban born have positive
effects in this stage, the interaction term: being Wolof and urban born, are significant. If
not misinterpreted, the ethnic group determines characteristic entrepreneurial traits, which are
determinant to the process of mobile money adoption.
At the final stage of the adoption process, we see that only the variables of cogni-
tive skills and banked had a significant positive influence on the probability of adopting
m-payments. Banked was not a key factor in the two first stages, but appeared in the third
stage as an explanatory factor for m-payment adoption.
This can be explained by the use of this tool with prior entrepreneur’s knowledge of
CHAPTER 4. EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS 45

financial services. Indeed, since the cost of access to this service is almost zero, income level
cannot be an explanatory element of access. However, this factor can be decisive for M-
payment adoption, to the extent that the interest in using m-banking appears to be exclusive
to certain groups of (those who have bank accounts).
The informal sector is essentially constituted of a vulnerable population with a shallow
level of financial insertion. In this kind of population, we can see why Mobile Money would
be an important element for financial inclusion: the few people who have bank accounts are
those who are using the full range of Mobile Money services and clearly see the interest in
using this type of innovation to facilitate business management as well as to reduce certain
transaction costs.

4.4 Robustness Checks


Decomposition

The cost of applying non-linear models makes the interpretation of the coefficients dif-
ficult to analyze. In the other hand, the use of marginal effects makes possible to get partial
effect of a given variable evaluated at the mean or any other interesting values. Thus, the non-
linear models are not well suited for estimating causal effects of a single parameter. Therefore,
the results presented in the following section represents an association between covariates of
the likelihood of using Mobile Money and do not necessarily imply causal inferences (Buis,
2011). To do so, linear models are the best option.
The distribution of the MM usages is shown in Figure 4.2, for both males and females.
The changes over cohorts were smoothed using the proprcspline package (Buis, 2009) in
Stata.
In (1), we observe the sample distribution according to the year of birth. The proportion
of entrepreneurs who don’t have a MM account is marginal. The entrepreneurs who were
born in older cohorts, use MM but not necessarily for business purposes. The 1985 cohort has
a pivotal proportion from those who use MMpro and MMf.
In (2), we observe the sample distribution according to the level of EDUC. As imagined,
with more education received, a bigger share of entrepreneurs using M-payments is found.
In (3), we observe the sample distribution according to the sector of activity. 60% of the
entrepreneurs having a business in the production sector, use M-payments.
In (4), we observe the sample distribution according to the entrepreneur’s skills. 60% of
the entrepreneurs having a score of 5 or more, use MM for business purposes. This proportion
grows with a higher Entrepreneurial Score.
CHAPTER 4. EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS 46

Figure 4.2: MMcat distribution

Sample distribution according to: (1) Year of birht; (2) Educ&Voc; (3) Sector Activity; and (4) Entrepreneurial
Skills
CHAPTER 4. EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS 47

Restricted vs. Unrestricted Dependent Variables

In order to get an idea of the robustness of the results, a comparison between restricted
and unrestricted versions of the mobile money categories appears in Appendix 4. From the
survey, an arbitrarily choice of the definition of M-payment was made. The choice, including
the “send and receive” or “only send” responses for M-payments, was tested. For the first
two categories of the variable, we get the same significant coefficients on both restricted and
unrestricted categories. The categories of MMuse and MMpro remained the same. However,
the differences were perceived at the last step of the adoption process.
See, Appendix C.6 for the comparison of both categories.
The coefficient was less significant on the restricted version than on the unrestricted
one. Assuming that this is due to the nuances and unclear definition of M-payments, the
unrestricted category is not taken into account. To catch a more refined effect, while excluding
potential noises on the regression, the choice to interpret the restricted version was made.
Statistically, two information criteria were compared between the restricted and unre-
stricted dependent variables. The information criteria for the unrestricted dependent variable
are AIC = 1161.983 and BIC= 1479.121 while the information criteria for the restricted de-
pendent variable are AIC = 1185.963 and BIC= 1503.101. Following the rule of thumb: “the
best model is the one that minimizes both information criteria,” the unrestricted dependent
variable will be the best fit. However, in order to get a subtle effect, we opt for the restricted
one.
Two logistic models were run on the last step of the process (as the first two steps
remained the same for both models). A comparison of ROC Curves of the two models was
made. Accordingly, the model with the unrestricted depend variable (ROC = 0.842) had a
better fit than the model with the restricted dependent variable (ROC= 0.8204) (See C.7)
b

Model Fit

A Likelihood Ratio Test was computed to examine the pertinence of the Demographic
Variables (Wolof, Dakar and Rural). Comparing the full model with the nested (excluding
those three variables),a p-value0.05 was obtained. The p-value of the test indicates that the
data is consistent with the claim that these demographic variables together (not just individu-
ally) do substantially improve the model fit.
b
the curve starts at (0, 0), and continues to (1, 1). A model with no predictive power would be a 45 line. The
greater the predictive power, the more bowed the curve, and hence, the area beneath the curve is often used as a
measure of the predictive power. A model with no predictive power has area 0.5; a perfect model has area 1.
CHAPTER 4. EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS 48

The seqlogit package lacks some conventional diagnostic tools available for Logistic
Regressions. The R2 is not given in seqlogit. However, because this package estimates logistic
regressions simultaneously. We could test for each transition separately. Goodness of fit tests
were successfully made on three logistics models: MMuse, MMpro, and MMf. Respectively,
pseudo − R2 values (0.13, 0.2, and 0.23) were obtained at each logistic regression.

Checking on International Remittances

Only 16% of the entrepreneurs send and receive international transfers of Mobile Money
(See Table 3.3). From the literature, an identification of diverse international remittance chan-
nels in Senegal has been made. Mohapatra (2011) found that remittances are transferred
through several providers such as MNOs, the post office, banks, and intermediaries for in-
formal transfers. The remittances market in Senegal is dominated by Western Union, which
accounted for 73 percent of remittance transfers between 2006 and 2007. The low identi-
fication can be explained by a misconception of the definition of Mobile Money. The en-
trepreneurs might consider that the money send internationally does not fit the definition of
Mobile Money. As consequence, this can become a miss-measure of international Mobile
Money remittances. International transfer were excluded to keep the analysis justifiable.

M-payments : B2B vs. C2B

Vis-a-vis client-to-business M-payments: a second categorical variable of MMadop-


tion was created. This categorical variable follows the indications of MMcat with the con-
dition that the entrepreneurs ”receives only” Mobile Money for business purposes (only 44
entrepreneurs were identified in this restrictive version). With the unrestricted version: the en-
trepreneur ”receives only” and ”send and receives”, 246 entrepreneurs were identified. With
this unrestricted version, the estimation of seqlogit is possible. However, no interpretation
was made due to the noises in the category. Additionally, estimating C2B M-Payments takes
into account the decision of the clients of each UPIS, rather the decision of the UPI. Some
unobserved heterogeneity might be identifiable because the banked nature of the clients is
unknown. The determinants of adoption of C2B M-payments seems to be more related to the
customers than to the firms.

Endogeneity issue

Lets put emphasis on the endogeneity of the mobile money adoption and the income:
measured with Logcam. There is a potential double causality bias between these two vari-
ables. We cannot infer that more income influence M-payment adoption. Because the opposed
CHAPTER 4. EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS 49

Figure 4.3: MMcat distribution according to Logcam

might also be true: having already adopted M-payments might increase income (while reduc-
ing the transaction costs). However, we can just present the sample distribution of MMcat
according to the level of CAM and log(cam).
In Figure 4.3, we observe the sample distribution according to the logcam. The propor-
tion of M-payment increases when the logcam also increases. The proportion of MMpro users
remains almost unchanged.
In Figure 4.4, we observe the sample distribution according . The proportion of M-
payment has a U shaped proportion: when the cam is bigger than 5e+07, the proportion of
M-payments is reduced. However,the proportion of MMpro users increases. c

4.4.1 Accounting for unobserved heterogeneity: Sensibility Analysis


The estimated coefficients are valid only if the use of mobile money is not correlated
with the error term. However, using m-payments to pay bills or suppliers as considered in
our analysis might be related to financial situation of the entrepreneurs. For instance, banked
individuals may use mobile money with the intention to easily make deposits in their bank
account, while unbanked people might use it because of lack of convenient ways to make
deposits.
After running the seqlogit model, a sensibility analysis is made using multiple Wald
tests, while varying the distribution of error. The analysis focus on the consistency of the
coefficient of BANKED.The output below shows the results of the Wald tests.
c
The interpretation on 4.4 does not takes into account possible extreme values (corrected with the logarithmic
transformation)
CHAPTER 4. EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS 50

Figure 4.4: MMcat distribution according to CAM

1
MM pay pro users

.8 .6
proportion
.4
MM pro users
.2

MM users
non-users
0

0 5.00e+07 1.00e+08 1.50e+08


CA mensuel harmonis�

Table 4.2: Effect of unobserved heterogeneity on BANKED

sd BANKED p

0 1.16 3.67e-08
.5 1.21 7.27e-08
1 1.33 3.69e-07
1.5 1.48 1.89e-06

The first thing listed in this particular output are the specific parameter constraints being
tested (i.e., the null hypothesis), which is that the coefficient for Banked equal to zero. Below
the list of constraints we see the chi-squared value generated by the Wald test, as well as the
p-value associated with a chi-squared of 30.31 with one degree of freedom. The p-value is
less than the generally used criterion of 0.05, so we are able to reject the null hypothesis,
indicating that the coefficient is not equal to zero. Because including statistically significant
predictor should lead to better prediction we can conclude that including BANKED results is
a statistically significant improvement in the fit of the model. d
Unobserved heterogeneity was tested for the values of sd (0,0.5,1,1.5). The results are
shown in 4.2. The plots 4.5 and 4.6 illustrates this analysis.
d
The Wald test works by testing the null hypothesis that a set of parameters is equal to some value. In the
model being tested here, the null hypothesis is that the coefficients of interest are equal to zero. If the test fails to
reject the null hypothesis, this suggests that removing the variables from the model will not substantially harm
the fit of that model, since a predictor with a coefficient that is very small is not a predictor of the dependent
variable. An intuition about how the sensibility analysis works, is doing multiple Wald test while modifying the
standard deviation of the error term. Returning to our example, we will follow the sensibility analysis in Buis
(2011) to run our model and then draw some conclusions about the unobserved heterogeneity
CHAPTER 4. EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS 51

Figure 4.5: Banked coefficient

Log (Odd Ratios)

Figure 4.6: p-value of Banked

Log (Odd Ratios)


CHAPTER 4. EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS 52

Figure 4.7: Decomposition of Banked into weights

Log (Odd Ratios)

The results are consistent with the fact that even at sd equal to 1.5, the null hypothesis is
rejected. Hence, BANKED is a robust coefficient in the model.

4.4.2 Decomposing the Effect


Now that BANKED coefficient is consistent even in the scenario of unobserved hetero-
geneity (at sd 1.5). Another robustness check by Buis (2010) is followed. We examine if the
effect of BANKED is equal across cohorts.
This is done by demonstrating the decomposition of BANKED in three cohorts (1965,
1975 and 1985) (see Figure 4.7. The effect of banked at the last transition (MM pay pro users)
is more pronounced on the 1985 cohort than on 1975 or 1965. From figure 4.8, the effect of
BANKED decreases (but the weights remains constant) with older cohorts. From the 1960
cohort to the 1945, the weights of BANKED are reduced.
In future research, the decomposition of BANKED presented here can be interpreted in
a number of ways. For the older cohorts, even if they are banked, they are going to be less
prone to adopt Mobile Money because they might not consider it as a useful tool, or because
of barriers to interact with technology.

4.5 Discussion
CHAPTER 4. EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS 53

Figure 4.8: Decomposition of Banked across cohorts

Log (Odd Ratios)


Chapter 5

Conclusion

5.1 Summary of Main Results


The logic of the adoption process provided Mobile Money new insight into the deter-
minants of adoption. The factors affecting each transition are easy to identify. Hence, a step
closer to the identification of the causal indicators is possible.
Moreover, this paper casts a new light on the heterogeneity of informal sector, by de-
composing the effect of income and age, as a source of heterogeneity in terms of adoption.
Access to financial services through Mobile Money has received attention from or-
ganizations such as the World Bank, and the United Nations (Findex, 2017). Despite the
broad enthusiasm for Mobile Money, critical voices began to emerge (Fall, 2019; Ky, 2015;
Morawczynski (2009)).This paper has shown that, for informal entrepreneurs in Dakar, having
a bank account is related with an increased probability of adoption for M-Payments. Those
who are unbanked do not have better access to financial services. Mobile Money in other
African countries is considered as a financial inclusion tool, however, it needs to be perceived
as a complement rather than a substitute among the urban informal entrepreneurs in Dakar.

Verification of the hypotheses

Mobile Money usage is lower among disadvantaged entrepreneurs: those with low liv-
ing conditions. Income has a positive relation with the adoption of Mobile Money. Gender
differences were not found in this study. However, further studies decomposing the effect
between sub-group can be made.
Mobile money for business purposes increases as the business has a higher income.
However, the income might also increase with the use of Mobile Money.
Mobile payment adoption is not determined by the activity sector of the firm. However,

54
CHAPTER 5. CONCLUSION 55

there is certain heterogeneity among the sector of the firm and the income. Services and food
sales are exclusively found at the top of the income distribution.

5.2 Practical Implications


First, MNOs should focus their marketing strategies on the benefits of m-payments; for
instance, promotional campaigns should emphasize advantages such as cost reduction, trans-
action speed, security. Also, in order to increase perceived usefulness, MNOs should invite
entrepreneurs and businesses to introduce these m-payments systems into their production
process, thus creating a more professional environment and usage for Mobile Money. Sec-
ond, since banking is related to a higher probability of m-payments adoption, MNO’s part-
nerships with (formal or informal) banks might be strategic. Finally, from the analysis, we
have highlighted the critical role of been banked to use m-payments for business purposes.
Put in another way, those entrepreneurs that do not have a formal or informal bank account,
are less prone to use Mobile Money to pay suppliers professionally. Mobile Money as a tool
for financial inclusion is a complement to formal or informal finances, rather than a substitute.
Those who are not banked might need the training to learn to use financial services optimally.

5.3 Limitations and future research


The empirical evidence, although consistent with Fall (2019) findings, is based on cross-
sectional data, which obviously makes it difficult to deal adequately with endogeneity; the
sensibility analysis can’t be considered as a correction tool. The next step is to add a second
round survey, adding a panel dimension into the analysis, will help to correct for heterogeneity.
To go further: Bayesian statistics, infers about parameters or hypotheses, which are
updated as evidence accumulates. While using the Bayes’ rule to transform prior probabil-
ities into posterior probabilities, causal inference can be made. Bayesian comparisons of
means and proportions, Bayesian regression and Bayesian prediction, can be helpful examin-
ing the adoption process more precisely. However, since diverse authors have also observed
only marginal differences between Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian estimation outcomes
(Byrne, 2010). Our results remain robust, within the limits of reasonable statistics.
Appendix A

Appendix

56
Table A.1: Description of the variables

Variable Definition

Dependent Variables
MMcat Categories of adoptions (0=MM non-user, 1=MM users , 2=MM pro users, 3= MM pay pro users)
MMf adopted mobile money to pay suppliers for business purposess(1 = Yes, 0 = No)
MMpro adopted mobile money for business purposess(1 = Yes, 0 = No)
MMuse adopted mobile money (1 = Yes, 0 = No)
APPENDIX A. APPENDIX

Demographic Characteristics
Age Age
Gender Gender (0= Male, 1=Female)
Wolof Ethnicity (1= Wolof, 0=other)
Dakar birth City of birth (1 = Dakar, 0=other)
Area birth Are of birth (0=urban, 1=rural)

Socio-Economic Characteristics
Bank Account Bank account holder (bank or microfinance institution) (1= Yes, 0=No)
EDUC Level of formal or technical education (0 ”None” 1 ”Technical only” 2”Primary Only”
3 ”Primary+Technical” 4 ”Secondary Only” 5 ”Secondary+Technical” 6 ”Higher”)
SCH Level of formal education (0 ”None” 1 ”Primary” 2 ”Secondary” 3 ”Higher”)
FORM Level of technical education (”None” 1 ”via school” 2 ”Technical”)
Hhsize (b33) Household size (number of person living in the household)
Group Household member belongs to a confrerie or association (1 = Yes, 0 = No)
Father Formal Father working in the formal sector (1= Yes, 0 = No)
Housing Index Standardized composite index constructed using factor analysis
Housing Categorical housing quality (0-3)

Business Characteristics
Age Activity Age of the activity (number of years)
57

Sector Activity Activity sector (1 = Production, 2 = Services, 3 = Commerce, 4 = Food sale)


LogCam Logarithmic CA montly harmonised
CamCat Categorical Cam (0,50000,100000,300000,500000, 1000000)
(r101) Workspace (0 = bricks, 1 = wood, 2 = precaires, 3 = not fixed, other)
APPENDIX A. APPENDIX 58

Table A.2: Summary Statistics of the main variables

Variable Mean Std. Dev. Min Max

Dependent Variables
MMcat 1.771203 0.927681 0 3
MMf 26.62722% 0.4424448 0 1
MMpro 57.98817% 0.4940652 0 1
MMuse 92.50493% 0.2635718 0 1

Demographic Characteristics
Age 37.10059 11.10708 18 72
Gender 42.40631% 0.494688 0 1
Wolof 53.84615% 0.4990109 0 1
Dakar birth 54.43787% 0.4985185 0 1
Area birth

Socio-Economic Characteristics
Bank Account 46.54832% 0.4992998 0 1
EDUC 2.790927 1.488983 0 6

SCH 1.171598 0.7386439 0 3


FORM 1.009862 0.9523745 0 2
Hhsize (b33) 6.883629 5.042533 1 40
Group 85.60158% 0.3514205 0 1
Father Formal 13.21499% 0.3389881 0 1
Housing Index 1.236938 1.000988 0 3
Housing 1.871795 0.9705818 0 4

Business Characteristics
Age Activity 9.934911 8.863574 0 56
Sector Activity 2.282051 1.024084 1 4
LogCam 12.61603 1.271379 8.334871 18.73458
CamCat 2.587771 1.19852 0 4
Workspace 1.984221 1.324648 1 9

Human Capital Skills


Q 2,554241 1,472581 0 4
E 3,666667 1,803963 0 7
APPENDIX A. APPENDIX 59

Table A.3: Table: Key characteristics of Dakar’s informal economy (Stylized Facts) 2017

Table: Key characteristics of Dakar’s informal economy (Stylized Facts)


1. Dakar region has more than 281,600 informal production units (UPI) (ANSD, 2013)
2. About 75 percent of urban households have informal workers
3. Majority of informal activity is not criminal but unrecorded (Losby, 2002, Benjamin, 2014)
Informal economic activities contribute to 13 % of non agricultural gross domestic product
4.
(GDP)
On average, informal workers have a low level of education, although this trend is changing.
5.
(Shehu, 2014)
6 42.4percent of jobs in the informal sector are held by women.Women are earning less than than men
(Ky et al. (2016), Berrou, Guchiki)
About 50 percent informal workers are under 35 years old approx. 56 percent were born
7.
in a urban area and 43 percent were born in a rural area (Gramstrom)
Majority of informal economic activities can be categorized as street traders/vendors,
8.
seasonal or temporary workers and home-based workers in services/repair, transportation,
real estate/ construction, wholesale and retail commerce, artisans, import/export.

Sources: ANSD 2003, World Bank


Appendix B

Appendix02

Mathematical appendix Determination of Average Level in the Adoption Process

E(MMcat) = (1 − p1 ) · l0 + p1 · (1 − p2 ) · l0 + p1 · p2 · (1 − p3 ) · l2 + p1 · p2 · p3 · l3

Variation in an individual’s characteristics affected the probability of transition and was


calculated by the formula:

E(MMcati ) = (1−p̂1,i )l1 +p̂1,i (1−pˆ2,i )(1−pˆ3,i )l2 +pˆ1,i (1−pˆ3,i )pˆ3,i l3 +pˆ1,i pˆ1,i (1−pˆ2,i )l4 +pˆ1,i pˆ2,i pˆ4,i l5

0
eα1 +λ1 X +β1 xi
p̂1,i = (B.1)
1 + eα1 +λ1 X 0 +β1 xi

eα1 +β1 xi
p̂1,i = (B.2)
1 + eα1 +β1 xi

0
eα1 +λ1 X +β1 xi
p̂1,i = ⇐⇒ yk−1,i = 1 (B.3)
1 + eα1 +λ1 X 0 +β1 xi

The general model is shown in equation:

60
APPENDIX B. APPENDIX02 61

0
eα1 +λ1 X +β1 xi
p̂2,i = (B.4)
1 + eα1 +λ1 X 0 +β1 xi

0
eα1 +λ1 X +β1 xi
p̂2,i = (B.5)
1 + eα1 +λ1 X 0 +β1 xi

0 
eα1 +λ1 X +β1 xi
p̂1,i = 0
1+eα1 +λ1 X +β1 xi
⇐⇒ ∀i 


0
eα1 +λ1 X +β1 xi
p̂2,i = 0
1+eα1 +λ1 X +β1 xi
⇐⇒ pass1 = 1 (B.6)
0 
eα1 +λ1 X +β1 xi

p̂3,i = 0
1+eα1 +λ1 X +β1 xi
⇐⇒ pass2 = 1

0 
e(α1 +βX +i )
p̂1,i = 0
1+e(α1 +βX +i )
⇐⇒ ∀i 


0
e(α1 +βX +i )
p̂2,i = 0
1+e(α1 +βX +i )
⇐⇒ pass1 = 1 (B.7)
0 
e(α1 +βX +i )

p̂3,i = 0
1+e(α1 +βX +i )
⇐⇒ pass2 = 1

0 
e(α1 +βX )
p̂1,i = 0
1+e(α1 +βX )
⇐⇒ ∀i 


0
e(α1 +βX )
p̂2,i = 1+e(α1 +βX )
0 ⇐⇒ pass1 = 1 (B.8)
(α +βX 0) 
e 1

p̂3,i = 1+e(α1 +βX )
0 ⇐⇒ pass2 = 1

weightk,i = atriskk,i · sdk,i · gaink,i (B.9)

A common procedure used in both economic theory and econometrics is to assume the
existence of a ”representative”or “average”individual who is assumed to have preferences
equal to the average overall choice maker’s with given observed attributes.

E(MMcati ) = (1−p̂1,i )l1 +p̂1,i (1−pˆ2,i )(1−pˆ3,i )l2 +pˆ1,i (1−pˆ3,i )pˆ3,i l3 +pˆ1,i pˆ1,i (1−pˆ2,i )l4 ++pˆ1,i pˆ2,i pˆ4,i l5

The intuition in Buis (2011) is at it follows:

pk = Λ(β0,k + β0,k + ε)
APPENDIX B. APPENDIX02 62

pk = Λ(β0,k + β0,k + γ1,k ∗ z1 + γ2,k ∗ z2 + ... + γj,k ∗ zj )

Λ = logaritmic transformation function  = error term (assumed to be normally dis-


tributed)  is composed of no one but many unobserved variables  = (γ1,k + γ2,k + ... + γj,k )
The problem rises when the error term is not longer normally distributed. Hence, the
standard deviation is no longer equal to one. Because of the logarithmic transformation,
the bias on the coefficients might have false-positive interpretation, or even negative-positive
interpretation. However, because the heterogeineity in the error is no observed, the sensibility
analysis shows how these coefficients vary depending on the sd.
Appendix C

Appendix03

C.1 IIA: Assumptions


In the following section, we use a series of mlogtest commands to estimate several tests.
Alternatively of the Seqlogit model , we compute a mlogit model to simulate the estimates of
Seqlogit, and to make use of the mlogtest commands.
We first conduct a LR test to each independent variable (C.1). From this output, we
choose the variabbles in Seqlogit, presented in Table 4.1. For example, we can reject the
hypothesis that the age of the activity does not affect the values considered important for MM
adoption at the 0.01 level. Or, the effect of workspace is significant (p.01, df=2).
Test of Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives. Either the Hausman or Small-Hsia
test can be used to test the IIA assumption. We begin with the Hausman test (C.2). Since this
test is based on the creation of random half-samples from the data, the test differs substantially
at each call of the command (C.3 and C.4).
Finally, we test wheter the categories of MMcat can be collapsed. The Wald test rejected
this hypothesis (C.5).
McFadden (1984) note that the results might differ depending on which base category
was used to estimate the model. In order to have the same assumptions as the SeqLogit model,
we should have done each test on every base. However, due to space reasons and the logic
explained in ??, the results remained the same.

63
APPENDIX C. APPENDIX03 64

Figure C.1: LR Test

Figure C.2: Hausman Test


APPENDIX C. APPENDIX03 65

Figure C.3: Small-Hsiao test #1

Figure C.4: Small-Hsiao test #2

Figure C.5: Wald test


APPENDIX C. APPENDIX03 66

Figure C.6: Restricted vs. Unrestricted: MMCat

--------------------------------------------
(1) (2)
MMcat1 MMcat
Restricted Unrestricted
b/se b/se
--------------------------------------------
_1_2_3v0 (Omitted)
--------------------------------------------
_2_3v1 (Omitted)
--------------------------------------------
_3v2
byr .7713184 .8027895
(.137805) (.1735458)
wolof .664969* 1.169649
(.1210344) (.2537828)
dakar 1.162241 .6335836
(.4933085) (.2599762)
rural 1.27819 1.019706
(.2555678) (.2187286)
banked 2.190195** 3.113602***
(.5840805) (.6229381)
EDUC 1.33149* 1.247137
(.1785256) (.1770996)
HHsize 1.022531 1.000957
(.0308733) (.031474)
group1 1.66538 .5508265
(.8337457) (.2914188)
Hcat 1.081588 .9799685
(.1676439) (.1041789)
privf 1.287974 1.066651
(.48695) (.3800424)
age_act .986121 1.013376
(.0238389) (.0280083)
sectbis .8822449 .7904734**
(.1132275) (.0651764)
camcat 1.039984 .9923374
(.2097339) (.2065873)
workspace 1.395102* 1.331322
(.2240285) (.202303)
Q 1.209456 1.434874***
(.1362984) (.1380931)
E .9634151 1.135002
(.0597729) (.1021605)
--------------------------------------------
N 507 507
--------------------------------------------
Exponentiated coefficients: Odd Ratios

Coefficients are Odd Ratios


APPENDIX C. APPENDIX03 67

Figure C.7: ROC

ROC area
Appendix D

Appendix04

D.1 A word on the Behavioral frameworks: using Struc-


tural Equation Models
Several adaptations of the original TAM framework are shown in this section (Davis,
1986; Lesa, 2016; Venkatesh, 2003; Zhou, 2010). As previously discussed, these approaches
are based from a behavioral perspective and studied by non-economists. However, the chan-
nels provided in the frameworks can enlighten important drivers of adoption in the economic
field. These drivers can lead to potential variables to take into account for further research.
Figure D.1 shows the Behavioral adoption framework, identifying the models, regions of
study, and determinants. The models are estimated using Structural Equation Models which
enables the identification of multiple channels of adoption.
The figure D.2 shows the original framework for Technology adoption (Davis, 1986).
A multitude of adaptations of this model have appeared in the literature with respect of other
kinds of technology. Some adaptations of the model with respect of Mobile Money Adoption,
are presented here. The figure D.3 shows the adapted model by Lesa (2016) while studying
the factors Affecting Mobile Payment Systems Diffusion in Zambia. The TAM evolved into
UTAUT which is shown in figure D.4. With respect of Mobile Money Adoption, the model
was adapted by Zhou (2010) to incorporate business characteristics with the individuals per-
ceptions. This last model is shown in figure D.5.

A word on causality of SEM

A major limitation of these frameworks is the use of Structural Model Equations (SEM)
to infer causality. The choice of this modeling tool is widely popular among the sociological
and psychological field but also has received several critics with respect of their statistical

68
APPENDIX D. APPENDIX04 69

Figure D.1: Behavioral Adoption Framework

Perceived Usefulness,
Perceived Ease of Use,
TAM, UTAUT Asia, Anglophone Africa
Social Factors

Commonly used models, regions and analyzed antecedens

Behavorial Adoption Framework

Rarely used models, regions and analyzed antecedens

Scandinavian, Central Europe,


TTF Technology Characteristics
Francophone Africa

Source: Modified version Singh (2010).

Figure D.2: TAM Original

Source: Davis (1986)


APPENDIX D. APPENDIX04 70

Figure D.3: TAM Model Adaptation

Source: Lesa (2016)

Figure D.4: UTAUT Model

Source: Venkatesh (2003)


APPENDIX D. APPENDIX04 71

Figure D.5: UTAUT Model Adaptation

Source: Zhou (2010)


APPENDIX D. APPENDIX04 72

foundations (Bollen, 2012). Attention to the methodology needs to be made to correctly in-
terpret correlation. Zeng (2009) argued that SEMs models cannot infer causality. However,
in the SEMs literature, causality seems to be used as a common term in the language. Us-
ing the terms of strong causal and weak causal for the assumption to specify a parameter
value or the assumption of a parameter different from zero, respectively. These terms might
bring confusion if misapplied. From the debate about casualty, two schools of thought em-
anate: the SEMs and the counterfactual literature. The latter is the main statistical approach
to infer causality in economic studies. Several methods are widely known among economist,
for example: Randomized Control Trials, Difference-in-Difference, Regression Discontinuity
Design, and Propensity Score Matching.
Some of these approaches are used to infer causality in Mobile Money adoption studies.
But these come with some limitations. Data is required to have a an ex-ante specification:
the randomization of the Treatment. Or a panel dimension for Differences in Differences
or Regression Discontinuity Design. For the Propensity Score matching correction, larger
datasets are needed. Some of these studies are reviewed by Aron (2018). In Figure D.6, a
table with the specifications of these studies is presented.
a

Munyegera and Matsumoto (2016) studied the impact of M-payment on remittances.


They propose an empirical analysis of the effects of the use of Mobile Money services on
household welfare in developing countries. They use household survey panel data from ru-
ral Uganda for the 2009-2014 period. They apply a combination of household fixed effects,
instrumental variables, and propensity score matching methods. They find a positive and sig-
nificant effect of access to Mobile Money on household welfare, as measured by real per capita
consumption. The mechanism driving this impact is the facilitation of remittance (reducing
costs): households using Mobile Money services are more likely to receive remittances, to
receive more frequent remittances, and to receive higher value remittances than those who
does not use it (Torre, 2015). [?]

a
The UTAUT has four predictors of users’ behavioral intention and there are : performance expectancy, effort
expectancy, social influence and facilitating conditions. Each predictor represent each aspect of the different the-
ories. Therefore, each predictor considered has a latent variable increases the complexity of the framework.This
unification was a controversial approach in technology adoption models which has researchers split on the matter.
Another novelty in the framework is the addition of socio-demographic controls such as gender, age, vol-
untariness and experience. The control variables were introduce to increase the explanatory power, reduce the
inconsistencies of the model, and explain different behavior if different people groups. [Zho]
APPENDIX D. APPENDIX04 73

Figure D.6: Micro-economic studies dealing with endogeneity

Mobile Money studies correcting for endogeneity.

Articles Country/ Data Sources Methods Specifications Endogeneity & other issues
Region
Murendo, C., and M. Uganda Cross-sectional survey of 482 OLS and Probit: IV Dependent variables: M-money dummy Only one IV result is reported: It is possible
Wollni. 2016.
households in 39 villages in two equal to 1 for households that used mobile that the instruments might be weak: no
regions in November and money services and 0 otherwise; or continuous critical values are reported e.g., for the
“Mobile Money and December 2013.
variables for frequency of use of services or Cragg-Donald Wald F statistic. For the
Household Food Security the volume transferred via mobile money- reported IV result, the level of significance
in Uganda.”
Instrumental variable used: Food consumption of M-money dummy is low. The IV entails
and Food insecurity index. Controlling for: ownership of a phone and proxies for
Definition of MM usage: wealth, which may affect food security.
household characteristics.

Households that used The second instrument may be correlated


mobile money services at with other controls in the regression, and
least once in the previous may signal a household with high SES,
year
affecting food security. Failure to find
appropriate IV would illegitimate the OLS
results. Cross-sectional analyses fail to
control for household and village level
heterogeneity.

Munyegera, G. K., and T. Rural Uganda Balanced panel of 838 Panel Difference-in- “Random” intervention: the introduction of Propensity scoring was used, though too
Matsumoto. 2016a. households generated from the 3rd Differences (DD) regressions. mobile money services. Controlling for: M-money few observations are found to assess this
“Mobile Money, &4th rounds of household and Propensity Score Matching.
dummy equal to 1 for households that used mobile properly. There may still be correlation with
Remittances, and community surveys in Uganda, money services and 0 otherwise; Controlling for: unobservables or poorly-measured
Household Welfare: 2009 & 2012 (RePEAT) project
household fixed effects; location-by-time observables (e.g., wealth). F tests suggest
Panel Evidence from dummies; dummy for household mobile phone that the instruments reported are not
Rural Uganda.”Defnition possession; and household characteristics. weak; no tests are reported for whether
of MM usage: Exact [Household characteristics: household size, log of they are exogenous. They conduct some
definition of “use” value of assets and land endowments, age, gender placebo tests.

unclear.
and education level of the household.]

Munyegera, G. K., and T. Rural Uganda Cross-section of 820 households OLS Probit/ Tobit ; OLS Dependent Variables: M-money dummy equal to Two approaches to address endogeneity:
Matsumoto. 2016b. interviewed in 2014 on Financial regressions are weighted by 1 if at least one household member ‘used’ mobile adding residuals from a first stage Probit
“Banking on the Cell- access and usage; household the propensity score.
money services and 0 otherwise
regression for adoption in second-stage
Phone: Mobile Money characteristics for same HHs from regressions; and propensity score
and the Financial 4th round of household survey in Controlling for: district dummies; and vector of matching. The authors suggest that
Behaviour of Rural Uganda, 2012 (RePEAT) project.
household characteristics (household size, log of heterogeneity has been successfully
Households in Uganda.”
total asset value, age, gender and education (years removed.
of schooling) of household head, the log of
Definition of M-money distance to nearest mobile money agent), plus
usage: Exact definition additional characteristics (log value of land, log of
of ‘use’ unclear.
distance to three other financial institutions and to
district town).

Gutierrez, E., and S. Cross-section, using the World Logit Dependent Variable : dummy for whether an They use location fixed effects to reduce
Singh. 2013. “What Bank’s Global Findex survey (2011) individual uses mobile money (receive, send or pay endogeneity.
Regulatory Frameworks usage micro-data; and constructed bills with mobile money or a combination of these)

Are More Conducive to regulatory indices based on


Mobile Bank- ing? Porteous (2009) assigned weights Controlling for: country fixed effects; individual
Empirical Evidence from through a Principal Components characteristics; and vector of individual/country
Findex Data.” Definition methodology.
characteristics.

of MM usage:
Households that used Vector of individual characteristics: education
mobile money services at (secondary schooling), gender, access to formal
least once in the 12 banking, age (and age squared) and income
months surveyed.
quintile). In some regressions, vector of country
characteristics: log of GDP per capita, %
unbanked population, % urban population, %
population owning a mobile phone, concentration
Brown et al. (2003) South Africa - 162 individuals TAM Convenience sampling -people with cell phones Exogenous factors of possible influence.
“Cellphone Banking: 85% in Cape and who have bank accounts were eligible and Not significant representative. Factors
predictors of adoption in Town were found in malls. Some online questionnaires contributing to not adoption non
SA-exploratory study were also sent out, in order to extend the entanggled. Selection Biais: due to the
convenience sampling and the low number
geographic profile of the sample.

of observations.

Centellegher et al,(2018) African Millions of anonymised mobile call Predictive analysis. Several A random sample of customers and a 3 month gap There is not a common set of behavioral
“ Mobile Money: Country ?? -Call Detail Records (CDRs)
metrics definitions. between the two datasets–
features derived from mobile phone usage
Understanding and (Country data, that consistently predict mobile
Predicting adoption and anonymized by money adoption in different countries.

use in a Developing the authors). Transfer learning does not perform well,
Economy and the results in the countries under
study vary significantly.

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