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1. What would be the expected outcome of the South China Sea conference in
Ho Chi Minh City on November 10‐12? Is it possible to reduce regional tensions and
how?
ANSWER: The workshop brings together international experts from many countries.
This will serve to heighten attention to the South China Sea and spotlight current
developments and important issues. Various proposals will be put forth that will
filter back to governments. Scholars can say out loud what government officials
cannot. I expect this workshop will be a sounding board for widespread concern
about China’s assertiveness and lack of clarity in its claims to the South China Sea.
2. Will the expected outcome from this event be different from the South China
Sea Conference held early this year in Hanoi and in what way? What is the impact of
the conference early this year so far?
ANSWER: I did not attend and I am unaware of a South China Sea conference held
early this year. I attended the first workshop (hoi thao) held late last year. I do not
expect much difference in outcome. The proceedings of the 1st workshop have yet to
be disseminated to participants and this has lowered the impact of the first
workshop. The first workshop was part of Vietnam’s efforts to internationalize the
South China Sea issue. It succeeded. Now that governments have spoken, this
workshop will analyze the impact of official words and generate suggestions for
confidence building measures and clarify some aspect of claims and international
law.
3. Why is there an increasing tension in the South China Sea? And what are
recent actions leading to this increase? In your opinion, what would be the situation
in the near future, will it become worse or better? Why?
ANSWER: I think that the tensions over the South China that arose in late 2007 and
influenced events in 2008 and 2009 has eased a bit as a result of US intervention. But
existing tensions are caused by Chinese assertiveness in detaining Vietnamese
fishing boats, imposing a unilateral fishing ban, continued construction of naval
facilities on Hainan island, and Chinese heavy handed diplomatic language.
Southeast Asia cannot insulate itself from great power rivalry further north, such as
that between China and Japan. The US, as an ally of Japan, has come to its support.
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China appears to have raised the stakes by declaring the South China Sea a core
interest. There is still much confusion over whether China used the term core
interest or core national interest. China’s lack of clarity has raised anxieties and
concerns.
The December a joint China‐ASEAN working group on the Declaration of Conduct of
Parties in the South China Sea will meet. For the moment there is some cautious
optimism that there will be some progress. But China’s announcement that it will
increase the number of Fishery Administration vessels indicates that Vietnam can
expect more harassment of its fishermen in coming time.
The United States has indicated that they have no recent reports of Chinese
diplomatic and political intimidation of international oil and gas companies to stop
working with Vietnam.
4. On October, 21st 2010, Chinese State Bureau of Surveying and Mapping
launched Map World, its online map service, at www.tianditu.cn and
www.chinaonmap.cn, in which the nine‐dotted line is present and encroaches
Paracel and Spratly Archipelagos. Could it be considered a move that could lead to
increasing tension in the region?
ANSWER: The publication of this map is an indication that China prefers strategic
ambiguity to strategic clarity about the extent and nature of its claims over the South
China Sea. It is an unhelpful act that increases anxieties and tensions.
5. What would be the role of China, the US, and ASEAN in maintaining security
in the region? How important is South China Sea security at regional and
international levels?
ANSWER: The sea lanes of communication (SLOC) that pass through the South China
Sea are vital to the economies of all the major powers and many others besides. Vital
oil and energy sources passes through this area as well as trade. China’s claims must
be separated from its actions. China has not taken any steps so far to impeded
freedom or safety of navigation. China like the US and ASEAN countries has a
national interest in seeing the SLOCs remain secure.
6. What would be your advice to reduce tensions in the South China Sea?
ANSWER: First, all ASEAN members and China should adhere to the spirit and letter
of the 2002 DOC and implement all of its confidence building measures without
reservation. Second, all littoral states should agree to treat fishermen from other
nations humanely and stop seizing their fish catches and valuable radios, GPS system
and other valuable equipment. Third, if the depletion of the fish stock is a major
concern, all states that use the South China Sea should agree on methods to
preserve it by acting in concert not unilaterally. Fourth, once countries begin to
implement the DOC they should renew diplomatic efforts to negotiate a more
binding code of conduct. Fifth, the South China Sea issues should be addressed by
newly emerging regional security architecture, such as the next meeting of the East
Asia Summit. But it should also be considered by the ASEAN Defence Ministers
Meeting Plus Eight Export Working Group on Maritime Security.
7. Your further comments on the issue are highly appreciated.
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ANSWER: China and the United States have resumed military‐to‐military contact and
shortly their defence minister will meet in Beijing and later President Hu Jintao will
go to the United States. ASEAN will be under the leadership of Indonesia. Indonesia
must exert diplomatic efforts to maintain ASEAN unity and cohesion on the South
China Sea, and continue to lobby the major powers to ensure that its interests are
not neglected.