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FOREIGN TRADE UNIVERSITY


FACULTY OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION

GROUP ASSIGNMENT
MACROECONOMICS

ABENOMICS
AND ITS EFFECTS
ON THE JAPANESE ECONOMY

Lecturer: Prof. Hoang Xuan Binh

Class: K56 - CTTTQT

Group members:

Nguyen Duy Anh - 1712280006

Nguyen Linh Chi - 1712280012

Tran Thi Lan - 1711280078

Le Phuong Linh - 1712280032

Nguyen Ngoc Mai - 1712280037

Le Hoang Viet - 1717280065


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Content
Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 3
Body .................................................................................................................................... 4
CHAPTER 1: THEORETICAL BACKGROUND ........................................................ 4
1.1. Fiscal policy and its effects on economy…………....………………………….4
1.1.1. Fiscal policy…………...…………………………………….…………………4
1.1.2. The effects of fiscal policy on economy ............................................................. 4
1.2. Monetary policy and its effects on economy…………………..………………5
1.2.1. Monetary policy. ................................................................................................. 5
1.2.2. The effects of monetary policy on economy ...................................................... 5
CHAPTER 2: INTRODUCTION OF ABENOMICS AND ITS IMPACTS ON
JAPANESE ECONOMY .................................................................................................. 6
2.1. Causes for Abenomics ............................................................................................. 6
2.1.1. The Japanese Economy before Abenomics ........................................................ 6
2.1.2. The appearance of Abenomic ............................................................................. 8
2.2. Content of Abenomics ............................................................................................. 8
2.2.1 Fiscal stimulus ..................................................................................................... 8
2.2.2 Quantitative easing .............................................................................................. 9
2.2.3 Structural reform ................................................................................................ 10
2.3. Impacts of Abenomics on Japanese economy ..................................................... 11
2.3.1 Positive effects ................................................................................................... 11
2.3.2 Negative effects ................................................................................................. 12
CHAPTER 3: PROSPECTS OF ABENOMICS AND LESSONS FOR VIETNAM 13
3.1. Prospects of Abenomics ........................................................................................ 13
3.2. Lessons for Vietnam .............................................................................................. 14
3.2.1. Impacts of Abenomics on Vietnamese economy ............................................. 14
3.2.2. Lessons for Vietnam ......................................................................................... 15
Conclusion………………………………………………………………………………17
Bibliology………………………………………………………………………………..18
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Introduction
Abenomics, which comprises of two words: Abe (Shinzu Abe) and Economics, is the set
of famous policies advocated by Prime Minister of Japan Shinzu Abe. The set has been
considered to be one of the most successful case of governmental policies to affect the
macro-economics in a large scale, which is one of the reason we choose this economic
policy to be the case study of our group. This set of policies focus on monetary easing,
fiscal stimulus and structural reforms. They are called “three arrows” of Abenomics. The
Japanese government strives for these goals by using monetary policies, fiscal policies
and economy structural reforms. All of the three are important aspects of Abenomics.

However, in this essay, we mainly discuss the monetary and fiscal policy applying our
knowledge in the field of economics. Three parts are presented in our essay, which are
theoretical background, main information about the Abenomics and its effects, prospects
and its lessons for Vietnam. Hopefully this essay would give you the basic knowledge of
Abenomics and the lesson from this case.
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Body
CHAPTER 1: THEORETICAL BACKGROUND

1.1. Fiscal policy and its effects on economy


1.1.1. Fiscal policy
In economics and political science, fiscal policy is the use of government revenue
collection (mainly taxes) and expenditure (spending) to influence the economy.
According to Keynesian economics, when the government changes the levels of taxation
and government spending, it influences aggregate demand and the level of economic
activity. Fiscal policy is often used to stabilize the economy over the course of the
business cycle.

Changes in the level and composition of taxation and government spending can affect the
following macroeconomic variables, amongst others: Aggregate demand and the level of
economic activity; Saving and investment; Income distribution. (En.wikipedia.org, n.d.)

1.1.2. The effects of fiscal policy on economy


Fiscal policy affects the economy through several channels, with varying time lags. In the
short run, it can impact the level of activity in the economy by changing aggregate
demand for goods and services. This means that fiscal policy can play a role in stabilizing
economic fluctuations. (Finance Ministry, 2018).

In the medium run, fiscal policy will also influence the structure of the economy, as well
as the relative sizes of the exposed and sheltered sectors. Thus it will affect the
economy’s ability to handle structural adjustments, such as the petroleum sector’s
declining importance for the Norwegian economy.

Fiscal policy may also have an impact on long-term economic growth. Of major
importance is the design of the tax and transfers system, which will affect the supply of
labor and capital. Other parts of the budget also play a role.
The effects of fiscal policy are complex, and policymakers have to balance a range of
considerations.
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1.2. Monetary policy and its effects on economy


1.2.1. Monetary policy
Monetary policy is the process by which the monetary authority of a country, typically
the central bank or currency board, controls either the cost of very short-term borrowing
or the monetary base, often targeting an inflation rate or interest rate to ensure price
stability and general trust in the currency. (En.wikipedia.org, n.d.)

Further goals of a monetary policy are usually to contribute to the stability of gross
domestic product, to achieve and maintain low unemployment, and to maintain
predictable exchange rates with other currencies.

Monetary policy is referred to as being either expansionary or contractionary.


- An expansionary policy maintains short-term interest rates at a lower than usual rate or
increases the total supply of money in the economy more rapidly than usual. It is
traditionally used to try to combat unemployment. Expansionary monetary policy usually
diminishes the value of the currency relative to other currencies.
- Contractionary monetary policy maintains short-term interest rates higher than usual or
which slows the rate of growth in the money supply or even shrinks it. This slows short-
term economic growth and lessens inflation.

1.2.2. The effects of monetary policy on economy


- Borrowing:
The Federal Reserve sets the interest rate at which banks borrow money from them.
When the Fed lowers interest rates, they make it cheaper for banks to access money,
which in turn makes banks more likely to lend to businesses and consumers. Your
business's ability to borrow or establish a line of credit can be largely affected by how
expensive or cheap it is for banks to get money. (Eric, 2018)
- Interest Rates:
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The primary thing the Fed controls is the interest rate for banks to borrow money. Not
surprisingly, banks turnaround and pass the savings or cost on to their borrowers. When
the real interest rate is set low for banks, commercial and consumer interest rates also
tend to run lower, making loans more affordable. (Eric, 2018)
- Foreign Exchange:
Interest rates and the value of the dollar have a distinct relationship. When the Federal
Reserve makes the cost of borrowing cheaper, more money starts flowing in the
economy. The more dollars that are out there, the less each one is worth. The dollar value
drops. (Eric, 2018)
Often, when the Fed drops interest rates, it intends to lower the dollar's value in order to
make U.S. goods more affordable, and therefore, increase U.S. exports, which can foster
growth in business and jobs. (Eric, 2018)
- Inflation:
During a time of low interest rates and increased money flowing through the economy,
inflation can occur if economic production and employment do not increase. Stagnant
business, despite increased cash, means that more money is chasing fewer goods and
prices rise. One of the goals of monetary policy is to prevent excessive inflation while
fostering economic growth. (Eric, 2018)

CHAPTER 2: INTRODUCTION OF ABENOMICS AND ITS IMPACTS ON


JAPANESE ECONOMY

2.1. Causes for Abenomics

2.1.1. The Japanese Economy before Abenomics


In the 1980s, Japan was seen as a model for global economic development. Record-low
interest rates fueled stock market and real estate speculation that sent valuations soaring
throughout the 1980s. Property and public company valuations more than tripled to the
point where a three square meter area near the Imperial Palace was sold for $600,000.
Upon realizing that the bubble was unsustainable, Japan's Finance Ministry raised interest
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rates to try and stem the speculation (Kuepper, 2018). The move quickly led to a stock
market crash and debt crisis, as borrowers failed to make payments on many debts that
were backed by speculative assets. Finally, the issues manifested themselves in a banking
crisis.

After the initial economic shock, Japan's economy was sent into its now infamous lost
decade, where economic expansion halted for more than 10 years. The country
experienced low growth and deflation, which is known as the economic cycle where
general price of goods and services becomes cheap due to the low purchasing power of
the public (Kuno, 2015). Economist Paul Krugman blames the lost decade on consumers
and companies that saved too much and caused the economy to slow. Other economists
blame the country's aging population demographic or its monetary policy — or both —
for the decline. In particular, the slow response of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to intervene
in the marketplace may have exacerbated the problem. The reality is that many of these
factors may have contributed to the lost decade (Kuepper, 2018).

Following the crisis, many Japanese citizens responded by saving more and spending
less, which had a negative impact on aggregate demand. This contributed to deflationary
pressures that encouraged consumers to further save money, which resulted in a
deflationary spiral (Kuepper, 2018).

In July 2006, Japan ended its zero-rate policy. Though still having the lowest interest
rates in the world, Japan could not stop deflation. The country saw the Nikkei 225 drop
more than 50% between the end of 2007 and the beginning of 2009 (Kurt, 2018).

In addition, the earthquake and tsunami in 2011 had made the country's economy worse.
Moreover, Japan is now considered as the most rapidly aging country in the world;
according to the United Nations, more than one in three Japanese citizens will be eighty
or older in 2050 (World Population Ageing 1950-2050). This demographic trend has
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already resulted in a lack of labor force and higher needs for social welfare services from
the government (Kuno, 2015). In that context, to create growth in a country with aging
populations became a very difficult task, and that was precisely why many Prime
Ministers had to leave (Huyen, 2013).

2.1.2. The appearance of Abenomic


After serving as prime minister briefly from 2006 to 2007, Shinzō Abe began a second
term in December 2012. Soon after resuming office, he launched an ambitious plan to
reinforce Japan’s stagnant economy (Kurt, 2018). In early 2013, after two decades of
economic stagnation, Prime Minister Shinzō Abe unveiled a comprehensive economic
policy package to sustainably revive the Japanese economy while maintaining fiscal
discipline. This program became known as Abenomics.

2.2. Content of Abenomics


Abenomics refers to economic policies enacted by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzō Abe
at the outset of his second term. Abenomics involves increasing the nation’s money
supply, increasing government spending and enacting reforms to make the Japanese
economy become more competitive. Abenomics refers to a set of aggressive monetary
and fiscal policies, combined with structural reforms, pulled Japan out of its deflationary
slump in long decades. Abenomics’ policies have “three arrows” which are fiscal
stimulus, quantitative easing, and structural reforms.

2.2.1 Fiscal stimulus


Abenomics’ fiscal policy stimulus aims at revitalization of the economy in the tax and
public spending domain. By fiscal stimulus, Abe attempts to raise Japan’s aggregate
demand and increase the income distribution among the citizens. Abenomics’ fiscal
stimulus also seeks to create job opportunities, expand the market, eliminate the country’s
deflation-mindset, which has lasted for approximately two decades.
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- Consumption Tax Rate. In April 2014, Abe raised the consumption tax rate from 5% to
8%, and so far plans to increase it to 10% in April 2017. According to Abe and his
cabinet in The Latest Progress and Achievements of the Abe Administration (2014), this
action is based on the consideration that Japan must lighten the burden of social security
expenses on the government, which has increased along with its aging population. This
policy is also for bringing quality mathematics, so that the new generations in the
workforce become more competitive in both domestic and global economy. Abe also
argues that the revenue increase through taxation will help create a momentum for further
economic growth in Japan.
- Domestic Investments. According to Abe and his cabinet in Strategies for Reviving
Japanese Economy (2015), there are three methods that Abe has implemented to increase
the investment activity in Japan. First is the Industrial Competitiveness Enhancement
Act, which promotes a new tax system that encourages venture funding in private sectors.
Second, it contains the revision of the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act, which
was passed in May 2014. Third, the principle seeks to increase the number of angel
investors, which has been considered as the most efficient since the application process
has remained simple compared to other systems.

2.2.2 Quantitative easing


Quantitative easing is usually implemented by the National Bank. In this regard, Abe
emphasizes that the Bank of Japan must contribute to the revitalization of Japanese
economy more aggressively. Abenomics’ quantitative easing targets the following: higher
inflation rate, moderation of interest rate, JPY depreciation, job market improvement, and
higher GDP growth rate.
- Inflation. During 2012 general election campaign, Abe emphasized that the role of Bank
of Japan’s should be to increase the inflation rate. His administration set the inflation
target as 2% in November 2013. This inflation rate control is also for maintaining the
low-interest rate, which has helped stimulate the Japanese economy. Abe administration
sought to achieve the target by monthly purchasing 7 trillion Japanese Government Bond.
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(Kantei, 2014). However, 2% inflation has not been easy to achieve because the inflation
rate of 2% is the highest since 1991, and achieving the target again will be extremely
difficult.
- GDP growth. In 2012, Abe launched JPY 10 trillion public spending program and
promised that there would be JPY 200 trillion increase in the number of new public
construction programs throughout Japan. He emphasizes that these stimulus packages
will be efficiently financed with national bonds, which the Bank of Japan will continue to
purchase in the next ten years. Moreover, in 2013, Abe administration seeks to stimulate
with a JPY 10 trillion stimulus package, and to mitigate the negative influence of
consumption tax increase in 2015, he has provided JPY 5.5 trillion for another stimulus
package in the same year.

2.2.3 Structural reform


- Overseas Infrastructure Partnerships. Abe stresses that Japan must increase the
country’s infrastructure investment abroad, especially in the Asia-Pacific Economic
Cooperation (APEC) region. With this proposed strategy, he established Government
Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) in 2013. Since then, Japanese companies have been
building infrastructure such as railways, gas pipelines, and power generation electricity
transmission. The size of the GPIF is considered as the largest in the world.
- Labor Market Rigidities. Increasing the labor market rigidity has been an important task
for Abe since the financial and economic sustainability of this country depends on how
Japan can mitigate the effect of its low fertility rate, which has been increasing the social-
security burden on the working age population. Abe proposes two main solutions: First
was to change the employment system; by which the government will increase the work
participation of females as well as the elderly; Second is to improve the current education
system, especially its foreign language education.
- Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). There has been an issue with regards to Trans-Pacific
Partnership (TPP), which allows free flows of people, goods, and services. Participants of
the treaty are: Singapore, New Zealand, Chile, Brunei, the U.S., Australia, Peru, Vietnam,
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Malaysia, Mexico, Canada, and Japan. This partnership has two main purposes. First is to
adopt high standards of goods and services in their trade, and second is to cover new
trade issues such as investment, intellectual property right, and e-commerce. The
negotiation has been ongoing since it was launched in 2011. According to Tsuruoka in
Japan is Back (2013), Abe’s idea on FTAs lies on the success story of tariffs elimination
in 1978, which resulted in greater revenues for Japanese auto industries in the
international market.

2.3. Impacts of Abenomics on Japanese economy


Abenomics policies have had both positive and negative effects on the economy in Japan.

2.3.1 Positive effects


Although there are many mixed reviews about Abenomics, the results achieved after five
years of implementation are evidences of the obvious effect of this strategy shown in
several respects:
Firstly, the economic situation is optimistic. Japan's economy is in the longest continuous
growth period in nearly 30 years. Specifically, GDP in the fourth quarter of 2017
increased by 0.1% compared to the previous quarter and this was the eighth consecutive
growth of the Japanese economy. Capital investment increased by 0.7% (partly to cope
with the shortage of human resources). Exports increased by 2.4% (thanks to exports of
smartphone and car parts increased sharply). Personal consumption rose by 0.5%, the
first increase after 2 quarters. The economic recovery is reflected clearly through the
growth of Japanese stocks. Accordingly, by the beginning of 2018, the price of shares
rose to 24,000 yen for the first time in 26 years, the sign of the escape from deflation is
clear. On the positive performance of Japanese companies, comments began to appear
that it seems that Japan's high economic growth stage is once again reappearing. (Do,
2018)
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Secondly, the positive change of economic indicators is important. In terms of GDP, it


can be seen that real GDP in the period from April to June 2017 compared with the
period from October to December 2012 increased by 6.3%. Nominal GDP rose by 10.1%
to nearly 550 trillion yen, showing a trend of slowing down. According to market
monetarist theory, strong NGDP can be useful in high cyclical unemployment. The
proportion of employed people increased by 4.5%, the unemployment rate decreased
from 4.3% to 2.8%. The youth unemployment rate (25-29 years old) also dropped from
5.7% to 4.7%. The effective recruitment rate increased from 0.83 to 1.52 times. The
participation rate of female workers has increased from 63.6% to 69.5%. (Kunoh,2015)

Regarding salaries, since 2015, total nominal wages has increased by 7.8%, including the
effect of increasing the consumption tax from 5% -8%, so the real wage increased to
3.8%. In terms of finance, credit and financial balance improved markedly thanks to the
policy to counter deflation, the budget deficit has decreased from 8.8% to 2.8%.
Estimated government and local government revenue increased from ¥ 78.7 trillion in
fiscal year 2012 to ¥ 100.7 trillion in fiscal year 2017. Government debt (on GDP) began
to fall to 238.7% from the peak of 243.1% in April-June 2016. From 2012 to 2017, the
Yen has fallen against the dollar from 86.8 yen to 112.7 yen per dollar. The Nikkei 225
rose to 99.8% from 10,395 to 20,770. Long-term interest rates have been maintained for
the first time since the economic bubble and the market has shifted to inflation, aiming to
eradicate deflation. Demand for credit is boosted. Total outstanding loans are at their
highest levels since 2001. Shares of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, one of the world's
largest financial groups, have risen sharply since late 2016. (Do, 2018)

2.3.2 Negative effects


Some following challenges are ahead which makes Abenomics become still far behind
the revolution he had promised.
Firstly, although the economic recovery, deflation gradually pushed back, total wage
increase, but due to the implementation of "austerity" abruptly, the increase in
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consumption tax caused the salary increasing effect not to occur as expectation, the
government's distribution of spending and the expansion of safety nets are still limited,
many people in the country still do not feel the real recovery of the economy after five
years of implementation of the Abenomics policy. This reflects the fact that Abenomics
policy, especially fiscal policy, has so far lacked a close connection to bring about a sense
of resilience to the people of the country.

Moreover, in order to implement flexible fiscal policy, during the other half of the phase,
Japan will rebuild public finances in the medium term. The rebuilding of public finances
may have to significantly reduce the social security system. This requires understanding
of the Japanese.

Lastly, 90% of Japan's public debt is still in Yen. With the policy of loosening the
monetary policy of the BOJ by lowering interest rates several times and eventually
implementing the "zero interest rate policy", Japanese people prefer to hold more cash
than invest in bonds or securities. As a result, the bank lacks the cash and can not lend to
the private sector, making private investment in Japan stagnant for many years. This is
the main reason that has stifled Japan's economic growth and caused Japan's fiscal policy
space to decline sharply. (Nguyen, 2018)

CHAPTER 3: PROSPECTS OF ABENOMICS AND LESSONS FOR VIETNAM

3.1. Prospects of Abenomics


The Abenomics macroeconomics set of policies has proven its effects on Japanese
economy during the last five years since its implementation. It has brought both positive
and negative sights to the Japanese economy for the first and second term of Shinzu Abe
in Prime Minister position.
First thing we have to mention is reducing deflation and aiming at a 2% inflation rate per
year as Abe promised. Price levels have been decreased for years before the policies was
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implemented but was slightly stabilized and raised especially after the consumption tax
hike in May 2014 rose the CPI for more than 1% (SHOTARO TAN, 2017). However the
hype soon disappeared and the goal of 2% inflation is far away and the hope of attaining
that inflation rate is quite hard for the domestic demand is low along with CPI.

Secondly the depreciating yen is one positive aspect that we can have high hope for in
Abenomics set of policies. The monetary easing policies of the central bank changed the
ratio of Yen in comparison to dollar and pushed it much lower, which help export-driven
company sell more products abroad with a weaker Yen. Profits at all listed companies in
the country, excluding financials, were at record highs in the year ended March 2017 --
the second time in as many years. (Tani, 2017)

Third thing is about the expansion of economy. The government has promised to activate
the economy after a long time in recession with many monetary policies. The
government tried lower interest rate so that people would have more interest in
investment and help boost the whole economy but it did not work as planned. The growth
rate of the whole economy marked as very unremarkable 1% and negative interest rate
would not help the economy grow faster (Tiezz, 2016). As a result, Japanese economy
does not seem to be very promising in the near future. It needs much more aggressive
policies to expand and motivate the whole economy than the existing Abenomics.

3.2. Lessons for Vietnam

3.2.1. Impacts of Abenomics on Vietnamese economy


Apart from the tangible impacts on the recovery of the Japanese economy, Abenomics
also renders a great numbers of benefits to other nations in Southeast Asia, including
Vietnam. The aim of this part is to provide how Abenomics affects the Vietnamese
economy.
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According to the third arrow of Abenomics, which is Structural adjustment programmes,


the Japanese Government aims to increase investment in overseas infrastructure. By
2020, Japan plans to invest approximately 30,000 billion Yen in infrastructure in foreign
nations, and Vietnam is considered as one of the most important destination. If the
Japanese Government boosts infrastructure investment in Vietnam, it will be beneficial to
both countries. In particular, the infrastructure in Vietnam will be more complete, and
the aim of Japanese Government in terms of investment in abroad infrastructure will also
be accomplished.

Abenomics also mentions improving the labors market by easing foreign employment
law, especially the skillful and talented workers. Nowadays, Japan has the policy of
receiving Vietnamese laborers and many companies are accepting trainees of Vietnam.
The Japanese Government has opened many special economic zones and empowered
enterprises to freely choose labor. These are the opportunities for the labor export market
of Vietnam.

Besides, the Abenomics also focuses on improving and developing the services,
including care services for the elderly. This service requires a huge number of laborers,
especially nurses. This is a category in which both countries can promote cooperation.

3.2.2. Lessons for Vietnam


It is undeniable that Abenomics has changed the Japanese economy significantly. Indeed,
there are several lessons that Vietnam can learn from Abenomics to reform and develop
the current economic situation of our own country, not only from the achievements, but
also from the limitations.
Firstly, our Government should impose and operate the policies properly. In particular,
we need to coordinate the macroeconomic policies, especially the fiscal policy and
monetary policy, closely and reasonably; the macroeconomic objectives should be
flexibly identified and periodically followed. To do so, the authorities should take both
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quantity and quality into account to maximize the effectiveness of the policies. Also, the
authorities need to consider the policy lag to impose the appropriate policies and have to
feasible back-up plans.

Fact indicates that the Japanese Government did struggle and find difficulty in
implementing the expansionary monetary policy. Although the Bank of Japan tried to
expand the money supply, the economic downturn and deflation have not been resolved.
Abenomics aim to ease the fiscal policy, specifically increase public expenditure to
support the economic growth. In 2013, excessive spending by the government stimulated
the economic growth. In 2014, the implement of the fiscal policy led to the lost in
national budget (7.1%), and the economic growth was slow. Meanwhile, public debt still
continued rising. (Nguyen, 2018)

Secondly, one of the biggest challenges for Japan while applying Abenomics is the
increase of the public debt. According to Japanese financial ministry’s report in May,
2017, the Japanese public debt increased rapidly to fairly 1 trillion Yen (9,400 USD)
from 2016 to March, 2017 (Nguyen, T, 2018). Although there is a slight improvement in
recent years, public debt still serves as a big issue in Japan. High public debt caused a
sharp decline in fiscal policy of Japan. These policies will have a slow impact on Japan's
economic growth.

For Vietnam, due to the lack of economic strength like Japan, in order to reduce
Vietnam's public debt, it is necessary to drastically implement process of perfecting the
legal framework for public debt management and to limit the increase of public debt
through strengthening fiscal discipline. In addition, from the lessons that are drawn from
Japan, the policy makers in Vietnam should carefully research and offer a low-interest
policy, control inflation, and control foreign and public debt by tightening government
bonds.
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Conclusion
After launching Abenomics, the Japanese economy nowadays witnesses a positive result,
but it is still under expectations. Nonetheless, the achievements of Abenomics and its role
in the reformation of Japanese economy are still highly appreciated. Since this economic
policy created by the Prime Minister of Japan - Shinzo Abe, the economy of Japan has
started a new chapter, and and Japan still served as one of the strongest nations in terms
of economy across the globe. In this assignment, our group has already give you a deeper
insight into Abenomics, including the its causes, content and impacts on the economy of
Japan and Vietnam.

Vietnam currently is a developing country, and of course, in order to make our nation
increasingly developed, the Government need to start from the economy. To do so, the
Government and the related authorities should learn from other developed and
developing countries in the world, including Japan. During the process of applying
Abenomics in Japan, there are a lot of lessons that Vietnam can learn from to make the
economy stronger.
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