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GROUP ASSIGNMENT
MACROECONOMICS
ABENOMICS
AND ITS EFFECTS
ON THE JAPANESE ECONOMY
Group members:
Content
Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 3
Body .................................................................................................................................... 4
CHAPTER 1: THEORETICAL BACKGROUND ........................................................ 4
1.1. Fiscal policy and its effects on economy…………....………………………….4
1.1.1. Fiscal policy…………...…………………………………….…………………4
1.1.2. The effects of fiscal policy on economy ............................................................. 4
1.2. Monetary policy and its effects on economy…………………..………………5
1.2.1. Monetary policy. ................................................................................................. 5
1.2.2. The effects of monetary policy on economy ...................................................... 5
CHAPTER 2: INTRODUCTION OF ABENOMICS AND ITS IMPACTS ON
JAPANESE ECONOMY .................................................................................................. 6
2.1. Causes for Abenomics ............................................................................................. 6
2.1.1. The Japanese Economy before Abenomics ........................................................ 6
2.1.2. The appearance of Abenomic ............................................................................. 8
2.2. Content of Abenomics ............................................................................................. 8
2.2.1 Fiscal stimulus ..................................................................................................... 8
2.2.2 Quantitative easing .............................................................................................. 9
2.2.3 Structural reform ................................................................................................ 10
2.3. Impacts of Abenomics on Japanese economy ..................................................... 11
2.3.1 Positive effects ................................................................................................... 11
2.3.2 Negative effects ................................................................................................. 12
CHAPTER 3: PROSPECTS OF ABENOMICS AND LESSONS FOR VIETNAM 13
3.1. Prospects of Abenomics ........................................................................................ 13
3.2. Lessons for Vietnam .............................................................................................. 14
3.2.1. Impacts of Abenomics on Vietnamese economy ............................................. 14
3.2.2. Lessons for Vietnam ......................................................................................... 15
Conclusion………………………………………………………………………………17
Bibliology………………………………………………………………………………..18
3
Introduction
Abenomics, which comprises of two words: Abe (Shinzu Abe) and Economics, is the set
of famous policies advocated by Prime Minister of Japan Shinzu Abe. The set has been
considered to be one of the most successful case of governmental policies to affect the
macro-economics in a large scale, which is one of the reason we choose this economic
policy to be the case study of our group. This set of policies focus on monetary easing,
fiscal stimulus and structural reforms. They are called “three arrows” of Abenomics. The
Japanese government strives for these goals by using monetary policies, fiscal policies
and economy structural reforms. All of the three are important aspects of Abenomics.
However, in this essay, we mainly discuss the monetary and fiscal policy applying our
knowledge in the field of economics. Three parts are presented in our essay, which are
theoretical background, main information about the Abenomics and its effects, prospects
and its lessons for Vietnam. Hopefully this essay would give you the basic knowledge of
Abenomics and the lesson from this case.
4
Body
CHAPTER 1: THEORETICAL BACKGROUND
Changes in the level and composition of taxation and government spending can affect the
following macroeconomic variables, amongst others: Aggregate demand and the level of
economic activity; Saving and investment; Income distribution. (En.wikipedia.org, n.d.)
In the medium run, fiscal policy will also influence the structure of the economy, as well
as the relative sizes of the exposed and sheltered sectors. Thus it will affect the
economy’s ability to handle structural adjustments, such as the petroleum sector’s
declining importance for the Norwegian economy.
Fiscal policy may also have an impact on long-term economic growth. Of major
importance is the design of the tax and transfers system, which will affect the supply of
labor and capital. Other parts of the budget also play a role.
The effects of fiscal policy are complex, and policymakers have to balance a range of
considerations.
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Further goals of a monetary policy are usually to contribute to the stability of gross
domestic product, to achieve and maintain low unemployment, and to maintain
predictable exchange rates with other currencies.
The primary thing the Fed controls is the interest rate for banks to borrow money. Not
surprisingly, banks turnaround and pass the savings or cost on to their borrowers. When
the real interest rate is set low for banks, commercial and consumer interest rates also
tend to run lower, making loans more affordable. (Eric, 2018)
- Foreign Exchange:
Interest rates and the value of the dollar have a distinct relationship. When the Federal
Reserve makes the cost of borrowing cheaper, more money starts flowing in the
economy. The more dollars that are out there, the less each one is worth. The dollar value
drops. (Eric, 2018)
Often, when the Fed drops interest rates, it intends to lower the dollar's value in order to
make U.S. goods more affordable, and therefore, increase U.S. exports, which can foster
growth in business and jobs. (Eric, 2018)
- Inflation:
During a time of low interest rates and increased money flowing through the economy,
inflation can occur if economic production and employment do not increase. Stagnant
business, despite increased cash, means that more money is chasing fewer goods and
prices rise. One of the goals of monetary policy is to prevent excessive inflation while
fostering economic growth. (Eric, 2018)
rates to try and stem the speculation (Kuepper, 2018). The move quickly led to a stock
market crash and debt crisis, as borrowers failed to make payments on many debts that
were backed by speculative assets. Finally, the issues manifested themselves in a banking
crisis.
After the initial economic shock, Japan's economy was sent into its now infamous lost
decade, where economic expansion halted for more than 10 years. The country
experienced low growth and deflation, which is known as the economic cycle where
general price of goods and services becomes cheap due to the low purchasing power of
the public (Kuno, 2015). Economist Paul Krugman blames the lost decade on consumers
and companies that saved too much and caused the economy to slow. Other economists
blame the country's aging population demographic or its monetary policy — or both —
for the decline. In particular, the slow response of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to intervene
in the marketplace may have exacerbated the problem. The reality is that many of these
factors may have contributed to the lost decade (Kuepper, 2018).
Following the crisis, many Japanese citizens responded by saving more and spending
less, which had a negative impact on aggregate demand. This contributed to deflationary
pressures that encouraged consumers to further save money, which resulted in a
deflationary spiral (Kuepper, 2018).
In July 2006, Japan ended its zero-rate policy. Though still having the lowest interest
rates in the world, Japan could not stop deflation. The country saw the Nikkei 225 drop
more than 50% between the end of 2007 and the beginning of 2009 (Kurt, 2018).
In addition, the earthquake and tsunami in 2011 had made the country's economy worse.
Moreover, Japan is now considered as the most rapidly aging country in the world;
according to the United Nations, more than one in three Japanese citizens will be eighty
or older in 2050 (World Population Ageing 1950-2050). This demographic trend has
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already resulted in a lack of labor force and higher needs for social welfare services from
the government (Kuno, 2015). In that context, to create growth in a country with aging
populations became a very difficult task, and that was precisely why many Prime
Ministers had to leave (Huyen, 2013).
- Consumption Tax Rate. In April 2014, Abe raised the consumption tax rate from 5% to
8%, and so far plans to increase it to 10% in April 2017. According to Abe and his
cabinet in The Latest Progress and Achievements of the Abe Administration (2014), this
action is based on the consideration that Japan must lighten the burden of social security
expenses on the government, which has increased along with its aging population. This
policy is also for bringing quality mathematics, so that the new generations in the
workforce become more competitive in both domestic and global economy. Abe also
argues that the revenue increase through taxation will help create a momentum for further
economic growth in Japan.
- Domestic Investments. According to Abe and his cabinet in Strategies for Reviving
Japanese Economy (2015), there are three methods that Abe has implemented to increase
the investment activity in Japan. First is the Industrial Competitiveness Enhancement
Act, which promotes a new tax system that encourages venture funding in private sectors.
Second, it contains the revision of the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act, which
was passed in May 2014. Third, the principle seeks to increase the number of angel
investors, which has been considered as the most efficient since the application process
has remained simple compared to other systems.
(Kantei, 2014). However, 2% inflation has not been easy to achieve because the inflation
rate of 2% is the highest since 1991, and achieving the target again will be extremely
difficult.
- GDP growth. In 2012, Abe launched JPY 10 trillion public spending program and
promised that there would be JPY 200 trillion increase in the number of new public
construction programs throughout Japan. He emphasizes that these stimulus packages
will be efficiently financed with national bonds, which the Bank of Japan will continue to
purchase in the next ten years. Moreover, in 2013, Abe administration seeks to stimulate
with a JPY 10 trillion stimulus package, and to mitigate the negative influence of
consumption tax increase in 2015, he has provided JPY 5.5 trillion for another stimulus
package in the same year.
Malaysia, Mexico, Canada, and Japan. This partnership has two main purposes. First is to
adopt high standards of goods and services in their trade, and second is to cover new
trade issues such as investment, intellectual property right, and e-commerce. The
negotiation has been ongoing since it was launched in 2011. According to Tsuruoka in
Japan is Back (2013), Abe’s idea on FTAs lies on the success story of tariffs elimination
in 1978, which resulted in greater revenues for Japanese auto industries in the
international market.
Regarding salaries, since 2015, total nominal wages has increased by 7.8%, including the
effect of increasing the consumption tax from 5% -8%, so the real wage increased to
3.8%. In terms of finance, credit and financial balance improved markedly thanks to the
policy to counter deflation, the budget deficit has decreased from 8.8% to 2.8%.
Estimated government and local government revenue increased from ¥ 78.7 trillion in
fiscal year 2012 to ¥ 100.7 trillion in fiscal year 2017. Government debt (on GDP) began
to fall to 238.7% from the peak of 243.1% in April-June 2016. From 2012 to 2017, the
Yen has fallen against the dollar from 86.8 yen to 112.7 yen per dollar. The Nikkei 225
rose to 99.8% from 10,395 to 20,770. Long-term interest rates have been maintained for
the first time since the economic bubble and the market has shifted to inflation, aiming to
eradicate deflation. Demand for credit is boosted. Total outstanding loans are at their
highest levels since 2001. Shares of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, one of the world's
largest financial groups, have risen sharply since late 2016. (Do, 2018)
consumption tax caused the salary increasing effect not to occur as expectation, the
government's distribution of spending and the expansion of safety nets are still limited,
many people in the country still do not feel the real recovery of the economy after five
years of implementation of the Abenomics policy. This reflects the fact that Abenomics
policy, especially fiscal policy, has so far lacked a close connection to bring about a sense
of resilience to the people of the country.
Moreover, in order to implement flexible fiscal policy, during the other half of the phase,
Japan will rebuild public finances in the medium term. The rebuilding of public finances
may have to significantly reduce the social security system. This requires understanding
of the Japanese.
Lastly, 90% of Japan's public debt is still in Yen. With the policy of loosening the
monetary policy of the BOJ by lowering interest rates several times and eventually
implementing the "zero interest rate policy", Japanese people prefer to hold more cash
than invest in bonds or securities. As a result, the bank lacks the cash and can not lend to
the private sector, making private investment in Japan stagnant for many years. This is
the main reason that has stifled Japan's economic growth and caused Japan's fiscal policy
space to decline sharply. (Nguyen, 2018)
implemented but was slightly stabilized and raised especially after the consumption tax
hike in May 2014 rose the CPI for more than 1% (SHOTARO TAN, 2017). However the
hype soon disappeared and the goal of 2% inflation is far away and the hope of attaining
that inflation rate is quite hard for the domestic demand is low along with CPI.
Secondly the depreciating yen is one positive aspect that we can have high hope for in
Abenomics set of policies. The monetary easing policies of the central bank changed the
ratio of Yen in comparison to dollar and pushed it much lower, which help export-driven
company sell more products abroad with a weaker Yen. Profits at all listed companies in
the country, excluding financials, were at record highs in the year ended March 2017 --
the second time in as many years. (Tani, 2017)
Third thing is about the expansion of economy. The government has promised to activate
the economy after a long time in recession with many monetary policies. The
government tried lower interest rate so that people would have more interest in
investment and help boost the whole economy but it did not work as planned. The growth
rate of the whole economy marked as very unremarkable 1% and negative interest rate
would not help the economy grow faster (Tiezz, 2016). As a result, Japanese economy
does not seem to be very promising in the near future. It needs much more aggressive
policies to expand and motivate the whole economy than the existing Abenomics.
Abenomics also mentions improving the labors market by easing foreign employment
law, especially the skillful and talented workers. Nowadays, Japan has the policy of
receiving Vietnamese laborers and many companies are accepting trainees of Vietnam.
The Japanese Government has opened many special economic zones and empowered
enterprises to freely choose labor. These are the opportunities for the labor export market
of Vietnam.
Besides, the Abenomics also focuses on improving and developing the services,
including care services for the elderly. This service requires a huge number of laborers,
especially nurses. This is a category in which both countries can promote cooperation.
quantity and quality into account to maximize the effectiveness of the policies. Also, the
authorities need to consider the policy lag to impose the appropriate policies and have to
feasible back-up plans.
Fact indicates that the Japanese Government did struggle and find difficulty in
implementing the expansionary monetary policy. Although the Bank of Japan tried to
expand the money supply, the economic downturn and deflation have not been resolved.
Abenomics aim to ease the fiscal policy, specifically increase public expenditure to
support the economic growth. In 2013, excessive spending by the government stimulated
the economic growth. In 2014, the implement of the fiscal policy led to the lost in
national budget (7.1%), and the economic growth was slow. Meanwhile, public debt still
continued rising. (Nguyen, 2018)
Secondly, one of the biggest challenges for Japan while applying Abenomics is the
increase of the public debt. According to Japanese financial ministry’s report in May,
2017, the Japanese public debt increased rapidly to fairly 1 trillion Yen (9,400 USD)
from 2016 to March, 2017 (Nguyen, T, 2018). Although there is a slight improvement in
recent years, public debt still serves as a big issue in Japan. High public debt caused a
sharp decline in fiscal policy of Japan. These policies will have a slow impact on Japan's
economic growth.
For Vietnam, due to the lack of economic strength like Japan, in order to reduce
Vietnam's public debt, it is necessary to drastically implement process of perfecting the
legal framework for public debt management and to limit the increase of public debt
through strengthening fiscal discipline. In addition, from the lessons that are drawn from
Japan, the policy makers in Vietnam should carefully research and offer a low-interest
policy, control inflation, and control foreign and public debt by tightening government
bonds.
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Conclusion
After launching Abenomics, the Japanese economy nowadays witnesses a positive result,
but it is still under expectations. Nonetheless, the achievements of Abenomics and its role
in the reformation of Japanese economy are still highly appreciated. Since this economic
policy created by the Prime Minister of Japan - Shinzo Abe, the economy of Japan has
started a new chapter, and and Japan still served as one of the strongest nations in terms
of economy across the globe. In this assignment, our group has already give you a deeper
insight into Abenomics, including the its causes, content and impacts on the economy of
Japan and Vietnam.
Vietnam currently is a developing country, and of course, in order to make our nation
increasingly developed, the Government need to start from the economy. To do so, the
Government and the related authorities should learn from other developed and
developing countries in the world, including Japan. During the process of applying
Abenomics in Japan, there are a lot of lessons that Vietnam can learn from to make the
economy stronger.
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Bibliology
Do, A. (2018). Những thành tựu của nền kinh tế Nhật Bản sau 5 năm thực hiện Chính
sách Abenomics. [online] TapChiTaiChinh. Available at: http://tapchitaichinh.vn/tai-
chinh-quoc-te/nhung-thanh-tuu-cua-nen-kinh-te-nhat-ban-sau-5-nam-thuc-hien-chinh-
sach-abenomics-137932.html [Accessed 2 Dec. 2018].
Finance Ministry. (2018). Conference: The impact of fiscal policy on the economy.
[online] Government.no. Available at: https://www.regjeringen.no/en/aktuelt/conference-
the-impact-of-fiscal-policy-on-the-economy/id2522585/ [Accessed 3 Dec. 2018].
Huyen, A. (2013). Viễn cảnh kinh tế Nhật Bản mang tên Abenomics. [online] ĐÀI
TIẾNG NÓI VIỆT NAM. Available at: http://vovworld.vn/vi-VN/binh-luan/vien-canh-
kinh-te-nhat-ban-mang-ten-abenomics-191081.vov [Accessed 1 Dec. 2018].
Kantei (2014). The Latest Progress and Achievements of the Abe Administration [online]
Available at: http://japan.kantei.go.jp/ongoingtopics/pdf/2014/140603_abenomics.pdf
[Accessed 2 Dec. 2018].
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Kuepper, J. (2018). Japan's Lost Decade: Brief History and Lessons. [online] The
Balance. Available at: https://www.thebalance.com/japan-s-lost-decade-brief-history-
and-lessons-1979056 [Accessed 2 Dec. 2018].
Kuno, Y. (2015). What is Abenomics? Three Arrows and their Economic Effects. [ebook]
Available at:
https://www.academia.edu/28404371/What_is_Abenomics_Three_Arrows_and_their_Ec
onomic_Effects [Accessed 2 Dec. 2018].
Nguyen, T. (2018). Chính sách Abenomics và những bài học với kinh tế Việt Nam.
[online] TapChiTaiChinh. Available at: http://tapchitaichinh.vn/nghien-cuu-trao-
doi/chinh-sach-abenomics-va-nhung-bai-hoc-voi-kinh-te-viet-nam-137940.html
[Accessed 2 Dec. 2018].
Tani, S. (2017). Nikkei Asian Review: What has Abenomics really achieved in five years?
[online] Nikkei Asia Review. Available at: https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/What-has-
Abenomics-really-achieved-in-five-years [Accessed 1 Dec. 2018]
Ta, Q. (2014). Hành trình suy thoái kinh tế Nhật Bản - VnExpress Kinh Doanh. [online]
VnExpress. Available at: https://kinhdoanh.vnexpress.net/tin-tuc/quoc-te/hanh-trinh-suy-
thoai-kinh-te-nhat-ban-3125797.html [Accessed 1 Dec. 2018].
Tiezzi, S. (2016). Japan's Economic Prospects in 2016 [online] The Diplomat. Available
at:
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