DR Alan Barnard - 42 - Tocpa - Sa - 13-16 May 2019

www.tocpractice.
com
42 TOCPA International Conference

13-16 May 2019, Johannesburg, South Africa
How can an APP help

support well-being?
Name : Dr. Alan Barnard

Company: Goldratt Research Labs
Country: Singapore / USA
© Dr. Alan Barnard, Goldratt Research Labs, 2019

OUTLINE
1. INTRODUCTION
What we do at Goldratt Research Labs … and Why we do it…
2. RESEARCH QUESTIONS & INSIGHTS

What is the link between our well-being and decision making?
What resource limits us from improving our well-being?
3. RESEARCH GOAL
Design a Process & APP to help people make better faster decisions to
improve their own or their organization’s well-being (to survive & flourish)
4. FIELD TESTING
How did we test the Process and APP and what has been the results?
5. APPLICATIONS AND FUTURE PLANS

How can Professionals & Users benefit from using the APP?

INTRODUCTION
Goldratt Research Labs focuses on helping individuals and organizations

discover and overcome limiting beliefs…so they can
make better faster decisions … when it really matters!
OUR CUSTOMERS INCLUDE:

INTRODUCTION
What is Theory of Constraints, and

why is it called a “Theory”?
“There is nothing so practical as a good theory”
Dr. Kurt Lewin, 1890-1947
Theory of Constraints, as a management “theory”, is simply a good
explanation of why “Constraints” are very important and useful, especially
to anyone who has to make better faster decisions that really matters…
Decision 1: Goal? How to set an ambitious but achievable GOAL?
Decision 2: Focus? Where to FOCUS improvements or investments?
Decision 3: Impact? How to judge the system IMPACT of local changes?
Decision 4: Rules? What RULES to use for Global (not Local) optima?
Decision 5: Change? When to CHANGE the RULES (and when not)?

RESEARCH QUESTIONS
AND INSIGHTS
What is the link between our well-being and decision making?

From From
Positive Psychology Behavioral Economics
Dr. Martin Seligman Dr. Daniel Kahneman
“Our well-being is directly impacted by “Most of our choices are made with
our choices to improve PERMA” System 1 to are prone to errors”
↑ Well being How do we make

decisions?
System 1 System 2
↑P ↑E ↑R ↑M ↑A Fast & Automatic Thinking
Intuition
Slow & Deliberate Thinking
Cognition
Pos. Emotion Engagement Relationship Meaning Achievement
What is our BOTTLENECK to making better faster choices that

will improve our (and our organization’s) well-being?

RESEARCH QUESTIONS
AND INSIGHTS
What resource, if we had more of it available, would allow YOU to

achieve more of the goals important to you (and/or organization)?
HOW WE WASTE OUR WHY DO WE MAKE

DEMAND SUPPLY LIMITED ATTENTION? BAD DECISIONS?
Is our
1. Doing wrong things 1. Unavoidable
Bottleneck No-one will ever know
not having The Many 2. Ignorance
AVOIDABLE
Things 2. Not doing right things
enough:
We didn’t know (others do)
Demanding Shortage 3. Inertia

• Money? our 3. Doing right things wrong We knew, but didn’t act
limited 4. Ineptitude
• Wisdom? 4. Repeating 1, 2 or 3
Attention We acted, but compromised
Time?
(Not learning from experience)
•
• Courage? Available
Attention
Our Bottleneck = Limited Attention
What are the causes and consequences of our

Attention Bottleneck?
RESEARCH QUESTIONS
AND INSIGHTS
Is the theory of an “Attention Bottleneck” new?

“My bottleneck theory suggests that individuals have a limited
amount of attentional resources (the bottleneck) that they can
use at one time. Therefore, information and stimuli must be
'filtered' somehow so that only the most salient and important
information is perceived. Other information passed through the
filter is stored in a buffer for later processing.”
Donald Broadbent, 1958
“The information-processing systems of our contemporary

world swim in an exceedingly rich soup of data and
information. In a world of this kind, the scarce resource is not
data or even information; it is processing capacity to attend to
information.
Attention is the chief bottleneck in organizational activity,
and the bottleneck becomes narrower and narrower as we
move to the top*of organizations.”
Herbert Simon, 1973
RESEARCH QUESTIONS
AND INSIGHTS
What are the consequences of our Attention Bottleneck on the

quality and speed of our decision making and performance?
EDGE OF
STABILITY CHAOS
CHAOS
100 EXAMPLE: 1hr Task
Reliability in meeting How long will it take to

Commitments complete this task?
Productivity/Reliability
At 50% Busy à 1 day

Task Completion Time
At 75% Busy à 3 days

At 90% Busy à 9 days
Resource At 99% Busy à 99 days
Productivity
Source: The Phoenix Project
Where are you on this curve?
Time to complete
How does it impact the quality
tasks (and Stress) and speed of your decision
1 making?
80-90% 100%
0% % Resource Busy
If you are in Chaos, how can you
get out?

RESEARCH QUESTIONS
AND INSIGHTS
WHY our limited Attention becomes our Bottleneck?
BACKLOG
?
WHY
BOTTLENECK
?
WHY
BAD DECISIONS
?
WHY
BAD ASSUMPTIONS
The cause of our “attention” bottleneck is:

the “bad decisions” we make (do what we shouldn’t + not do what we should)
which in turn is caused by
“bad” or limiting assumptions and beliefs…
But… How do we find and challenge limiting assumptions/beliefs?

RESEARCH QUESTIONS
AND INSIGHTS
If the cause of many avoidable decision mistakes is often not

ignorance, but rather inertia and ineptitude…
Is it possible to create a simple step-by-step process that will enable

anyone to find and challenge the limiting assumptions or beliefs causing
these…?
“There is a silver lining in every dark cloud”

How? … By Standing on the shoulders of Giants…
To create a new method that retains all the benefits of previous decision-
making methods…but addresses their critical limitations…
RESEARCH QUESTIONS
AND INSIGHTS
The silver lining in every dark cloud is that

Limiting Assumptions & beliefs are often hidden in
plain sight..
Dr. Eli Goldratt

“Making any Change is like climbing a mountain…”
? ? ?

RESEARCH GOAL
The 5-Step ProConCloud Method
Step 1 Step 2
Define YOUR Problem and Define YOUR and
why its important “THEIR” Conflicts
Why important for THEIR CONFLICT MY CONFLICT

Why important for
OTHERS?
OTHERS?
Why important for Why important for

ME? ME?
MY/OUR PROBLEM CHANGE VS DON’T

MY/OUR PROBLEM CHANGE VS DON’T (the dark cloud)
(the dark cloud)
To prevent common mistakes of To prevent common mistakes of

Wasting our limited attention by .. Jumping to a Solution
Dealing with Unimportant Problems OR OR
Procrastinating on Important Problems Finding Someone to Blame

RESEARCH GOAL

Step 3 Step 4
Resolve Conflict(s) with 4 win:win options YES-BUT Planning
OPTION 1 OPTION 2
CHANGE++ NOT CHANGE++
YES, BUT…it’s not sufficient
✓ ✓ YES, AND…how to make it sufficient?

CHANGE + + NO CHANGE + +
✗ ✗ YES, BUT…it has negatives
OPTION 3 OPTION 4
YES, AND…how to prevent negatives?
WHEN+WHEN NOT ANOTHER CHANGE
✓ ✓
✓ ✓ ✓ YES, BUT…there are obstacles
WHEN + WHEN
ANOTHER NOT
CHANGE ANOTHER CHANGE
YES, AND…how to overcome obstacles?
✗
✗ ✗
✗ ✗ ✗
To prevent common mistake of To prevent common mistakes of
FOCUSING on only ONE resolution Ignoring valid reservations (Yes, buts)
or compromising OR
Not realizing there are 4 viable options Using Yes, buts as excuses not to act

RESEARCH GOAL
Step 5 Now Just do it!

Design a GOOD Experiment Managing Experiment as a Project
Your Experiment Design

NS IP F C A
Why? Disharmony
What? ↑Pros ↓Cons Not Started In Progress Frozen Completed Achieved
How? Change +++
Why?
To prevent common mistake of To prevent common mistake of

Failing to learn from experience by Either Procrastinating, getting distracted or
doing BAD Experiments when communicating or multitasking …that often results in avoidable
implementing changes FAILED Experiments

FIELD TESTING
PRONCONCLOUD ANALYSIS ON
LAYOFFS
TELLING YOUR STORY WITH THE PROCONCLOUD
Work Example – Limiting Beliefs behind Layoffs
Step 1 - My/Our Problem Step 2a - My/Our Conflict
Step 2b - “Their” Conflict
and why its important The one who must solve the problem
The one who is blamed for the problem
SYSTEM IMPACT
MY /OUR GOAL
THEIR GOAL Risk of losing market share CEO and management team is recognized for
CEO and Leadership team recognized for helping and investor confidence helping company achieve profitable growth targets
company achieve & sustain profitable growth
+ OF CHANGE + OF NOT CHANGE
+ OF CHANGE + OF NOT CHANGE LOCAL IMPACT
Our Profitability will Exco and Employees
Investor and board’s ELT can show CEO and As the CEO, I am under improve to levels can continue on focus
expectations are more
realistic and Co. more likely
board they are confident YOUR now to
major pressure expected by market on revenue growth
to achieve targets
in their growth strategy DARK
reduce CLOUD
costs asap
CHANGE (SOLUTION) NOT CHANGE

CHANGE (SOLUTION) NOT CHANGE MY /OUR PROBLEM
CEO Announces Don’t layoff any
Leadership team submitted Exec Leadership team Our company’s earnings
more realistic Sales and Vs submitted too high Sales layoffs of 10% Vs employees (I find other
Profit Forecast per share is 10% below of employees ways to improve NP)
and Profit Forecast
market expectations
- OF CHANGE - OF NOT CHANGE - OF CHANGE - OF NOT CHANGE
Lower levels of management High risk of being blamed Layoffs take most of Exco Share price continue to
will not be feel pressure to do for not achieving high attention and risk losing top fall and we become a
whatever it takes to achieve profit and growth forecasts people making revenue target for acquisition
maximum profits growth unlikely
THEIR THREAT MY / OUR THREAT
CEO and Leadership team is blamed for not CEO and management team is blamed for not
achieving forecasted profitable growth Step 2a profitable
achieving forecasted – The How …
growth
“They” some9mes RESIST GOOD CHANGES We sometimes MAKE BAD CHANGES

because of exaggerated
because of exaggerated
FRUSTRATIONS and/or EXPECTATIONS
FEARS of LOSS and/or FEAR OF RISK

FIELD TESTING
SELF-HARM
“They” sometimes RESIST GOOD CHANGES We sometimes MAKE BAD CHANGES

because of exaggerated because of exaggerated
FEARS of LOSS and/or FEAR OF RISK FRUSTRATIONS and/or EXPECTATIONS

FIELD TESTING
BULLYING
“They” some9mes RESIST GOOD CHANGES We sometimes MAKE BAD CHANGES

because of exaggerated because of exaggerated
FEARS of LOSS and/or FEAR OF RISK FRUSTRATIONS and/or EXPECTATIONS
FIELD TESTING
THE PROCONCLOUD AND
HARMONY DECISION MAKER APP
1. PRIVATE SECTOR
• Pilot In-house “Decision-Making” programs with few Fortune 500 Co.s
• Helping High Tech Co’s Sales Team prepare for B2B Sales meetings
• Washington State and Duke CE pilots with MBA students
• Prometheus “Decision Making in Complex World” Online Course
2. PUBLIC SECTOR
• African City Councils facing Solid Waste Crisis
• State Government Governor’s Office to analyze Spend-it-or-Lose-it
• Correctional Services facing challenge to Reduce recidivism rate
• Medical Centers/Hospitals analyzing non-compliance
3. INDIVIDUALS
• Odyssey Program, starting in 2005 (40+ programs since then)
• Research Partnerships analyzing Overspending, Obesity etc.
• Success For All Foundation Research Partnership with US Schools for
kids dealing with bullying, low grades, difficult decisions etc.
• NHS Pilot for young people facing mental health challenges

HOW THE
WORKS
Your own decision-making To make important

coach, available 24/7, to decisions, even those you
offer step-by-step guidance think are “impossible”

HOW THE
WORKS
Helps you look at all sides … Helps you discover new You can monitor and share
the Pros and Cons of win:win options you your analysis & progress
Changing and Not Changing previously didn’t consider privately or publicly

HOW THE
WORKS
And if you do get stuck, you You can also share your own, Join our growing world-wide
can learn how others view or even listen to other community and evaporate
resolved similar conflicts user’s “My-Story-on-1-Page” one of your dark clouds today

APPLICATIONS AND
FUTURE RESEARCH
STEP 1 STEP 2 STEP 3 STEP 4 STEP 5

My/Our Problem My/Our Decision Conflict Resolving Decision Conflict YES-BUT Planning Design a GOOD EXPERIMENT by
& why its important in dealing with the Problem with 1 of 4 win:win options summarizing analysis as S&T Node
SYSTEM IMPACT GOAL GOAL

NEW WIN:WIN CHANGE IMPLEMENTED NO.
What is the “System” impact TITLE OF NEW CHANGE
of this Local Performance
GAP?
What is the GOAL you want to achieve?
✓ YES-BUT 1 YES-AND 1
NECESSARY
ASSUMPTIONS
(WHY 1?)
FROM STEP 1:
Out Problem and why it is important to
resolve for us and organization
LOCAL IMPACT PROS OF CHANGE PROS OF NO CHANGE PROS OF CHANGE PROS OF NO CHANGE The new win:win CHANGE How to overcome STRATEGY FROM STEP 2
has IMPLEMENTATION IMPLEMENTATION (WHAT FOR?) We want MORE PROS and LESS CONS
What LOCAL Performance
GAP do you experience?
What are the PROS unique to
this CHANGE?
What are the PROS unique to
this NO CHANGE? ✓ ✓ OBSTACLES OBSTACLES
VIABILITY
ASSUMPTIONS
FROM STEP 3 AND 4
Assumptions challenged to achieve win:win
And to overcome Insufficiency and potential
YES-BUT 1 YES-AND 1 (WHY 2?) Negative Consequence Yes-Buts
PROBLEM CHANGE vs. NO CHANGE NEW WIN:WIN CHANGE
The new win:win CHANGE How to prevent / reduce TACTIC FROM STEP 3 AND 4
What ”problem” makes it What can you do instead that Select from 4 Viable Options to achieve more PROS less CONS has Risks or NEGATIVE Risks or other NEGATIVE (HOW TO?) New win:win CHANGE + YES-ANDS
What CHANGE is needed to
difficult to close the is in conflict with this 1) CHANGE + + 2) NO CHANGE + + CONSEQUENCES CONSEQUENCES
FROM STEP 4
resolve the Problem? SUFFICIENCY
performance GAP? CHANGE (NO CHANGE)? 3) WHEN+ WHEN NOT 4) ANOTHER CHANGE Warnings about all the YES-BUT
ASSUMPTIONS Implementation Obstacles and
CONS OF CHANGE CONS OF NO CHANGE CONS OF CHANGE CONS OF NO CHANGE YES-BUT 1 YES-AND 1 (WHY 3?) how to overcome these
How to make new CHANGE
✗ ✗
What are the CONS unique What are the CONS unique The new win:win CHANGE is
SUFFICIENT to be win for
to this CHANGE? to NO CHANGE? NOT SUFFICIENT ALL stakeholders
GAP THREAT THREAT
What is the THREAT you fear most?

✗ TODAY
New
Organizational S&T
Organizational S&T

APPLICATIONS AND
FUTURE RESEARCH
HOW THE APP CAN BE USED FOR CREATING NEW

RESEARCH INSIGHTS ON WELL-BEING
Step 1 Step 2
Invitation Letter Volunteers Register
from Research
and, in the process, gain NEW INSIGHTS into WHY so
many of us often fail to make GOOD nutritional
choices, compromising our own health and well-being.
and watch Tutorial
Partners This research project has been specifically designed to assist people just like you to better
understand why so many of us often battle to make and sustain good nutritional choices.
Video
Why do we consistently fall off the wagon around holidays or weekends or cheat on our
diets, even when we know the implications? So many of us know what the right thing to do
is, but still decide to do things that are not helpful or even harmful to our health, why?
“Why” is a simplest question with often complex answers. However, if we knew the "Why" –
the set of assumptions or beliefs - that are informing our decisions and actions, we would
have a much better chance of being able to correct our actions and make choices that are
actually good for us and sustainable.
Step 3 Step 4
Volunteers Tell us Volunteers &
their story with Researchers
ProConCloud analyze data
using the APP and shares
And evaporate insights
their dark clouds gained

APPLICATIONS AND
FUTURE RESEARCH
Understanding the unresolved conflicts blocking improved well-being
WELL-BEING
FLOURISHING PERSON J
Enough… Enough… Enough… Enough… Enough…

P E R M A
Positive Emotion Engagement (Flow) Positive Relationships Meaning Achievement
Too Too Too Too Too Too Too Too Too
Enough Enough Too
Liile much Little Enough much Little much Little Enough Little Enough much
much
WELL-BEING
WELL-BEING
WELL-BEING
WELL-BEING
WELL-BEING
POSITIVE EMOTION ENGAGEMENT POS. RELATIONSHIPS MEANING ACHIEVEMENT
Flourish Flourish Flourish Be happy Be happy
Have more
Feel / Be Have more Be reliable / Have Positive Respect Have meaning Enjoy life / not Have Keep
Positive
respected FLOW Not fail Relationships myself in life fail achievement buffer
Emotions
Do things that Only do things Do really Do only tasks Compromise
just make me that are challenging important needs
Not Try to “save” Don’t try to Invest more to Don’t invest
you can
feel good compromise the world “save” the world be able to WIN more
“important” tasks succeed with / wants
Be Upset my Neglect your Blame myself

Feel selfish Not get Anxiety Feel / Look I never
Boredom exploited partner
family or master skill for not really
enough rest other needs selfish
trying
Not Not Not Not Not

Flourish Flourish Flourish Flourish Flourish

APPLICATIONS AND
FUTURE RESEARCH
Join us for a week of ground-breaking TED Talks and

workshops facilitated by TED Fellows to brainstorm
how to resolve society’s most wicked problems

Questions?

Step 3
Step 1 Step 2 Resolve Conflict(s) with 4 win:win options
OPTION 1 OPTION 2
Define YOUR Problem and Define YOUR and CHANGE++ NOT CHANGE++
why its important “THEIR” Conflicts
Why important for THEIR CONFLICT MY CONFLICT ✓ ✓

OTHERS? Why important for CHANGE + + NO CHANGE + +
OTHERS?
Why important for Why important for

✗ ✗
ME? ME?
OPTION 3 OPTION 4
WHEN+WHEN NOT ANOTHER CHANGE
MY/OUR PROBLEM MY/OUR PROBLEM CHANGE VS DON’T
CHANGE VS DON’T (the dark cloud)
(the dark cloud)
✓ ✓
✓ ✓ ✓
WHEN + WHEN
ANOTHER NOT
CHANGE ANOTHER CHANGE
✗
✗ ✗
✗ ✗ ✗
To prevent common mistake of
To prevent common mistakes of FOCUSING on only ONE resolution
To prevent common mistakes of
Wasting our limited attention by .. or compromising
Jumping to a Solution
Not realizing there are 4 viable options
Dealing with Unimportant Problems OR OR
Procrastinating on Important Problems Finding Someone to Blame
Now Just do it! Step 5 Step 4

Managing Experiment as a Project Design a GOOD Experiment YES-BUT Planning
Experiment Design
NS IP F C A
Why? Disharmony YES, BUT…it’s not sufficient
What? ↑Pros ↓Cons
Not Started In Progress Frozen Completed Achieved YES, AND…how to make it sufficient?
How? Change +++
YES, BUT…it has nega7ves
YES, AND…how to prevent nega7ves?

Why?
YES, BUT…there are obstacles
YES, AND…how to overcome obstacles?
To prevent common mistake of To prevent common mistake of To prevent common mistakes of

Either Procrastinating, getting distracted or Failing to learn from experience by Ignoring valid reservations (Yes, buts)
multitasking …that often results in avoidable doing BAD Experiments when communicating or OR
FAILED Experiments implementing changes Using Yes, buts as excuses not to act

ABOUT ALAN
Dr. Alan Barnard is one of

the leading decision
scientists and Theory of
Constraints’ experts in the
world. He is also a proud
father, serial entrepreneur,
App developer, Author,
Strategy Advisor and
Teacher
Alan’s research has focused on understanding why good
people make and often repeat bad decisions within their
personal lives or at work and to develop simple methods
and apps to help people avoid such mistakes, or at least
learn from each of them.
Contact me at alan@goldrattresearchlabs.com
For more information, visit www.dralanbarnard.com
Dr. Alan Barnard’s Podcast Series, search for “Impossible Unless”.

DR Alan Barnard - 42 - Tocpa - Sa - 13-16 May 2019

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www.tocpractice.

42 TOCPA International Conference

How can an APP help

Name : Dr. Alan Barnard

© Dr. Alan Barnard, Goldratt Research Labs, 2019

2. RESEARCH QUESTIONS & INSIGHTS

5. APPLICATIONS AND FUTURE PLANS

© Dr. Alan Barnard, Goldratt Research Labs, 2019

Goldratt Research Labs focuses on helping individuals and organizations

OUR CUSTOMERS INCLUDE:

© Dr. Alan Barnard, Goldratt Research Labs, 2019

What is Theory of Constraints, and

Decision 2: Focus? Where to FOCUS improvements or investments?

Decision 3: Impact? How to judge the system IMPACT of local changes?

Decision 5: Change? When to CHANGE the RULES (and when not)?

© Dr. Alan Barnard, Goldratt Research Labs, 2019

What is the link between our well-being and decision making?

↑ Well being How do we make

What is our BOTTLENECK to making better faster choices that

© Dr. Alan Barnard, Goldratt Research Labs, 2019

What resource, if we had more of it available, would allow YOU to

HOW WE WASTE OUR WHY DO WE MAKE

not having The Many 2. Ignorance

Demanding Shortage 3. Inertia

Our Bottleneck = Limited Attention

What are the causes and consequences of our

Is the theory of an “Attention Bottleneck” new?

“The information-processing systems of our contemporary

What are the consequences of our Attention Bottleneck on the

Reliability in meeting How long will it take to

At 50% Busy à 1 day

At 75% Busy à 3 days

Where are you on this curve?

© Dr. Alan Barnard, Goldratt Research Labs, 2019

WHY our limited Attention becomes our Bottleneck?

The cause of our “attention” bottleneck is:

But… How do we find and challenge limiting assumptions/beliefs?

If the cause of many avoidable decision mistakes is often not

Is it possible to create a simple step-by-step process that will enable

“There is a silver lining in every dark cloud”

The silver lining in every dark cloud is that

Dr. Eli Goldratt

© Dr. Alan Barnard, Goldratt Research Labs, 2019

The 5-Step ProConCloud Method

Why important for THEIR CONFLICT MY CONFLICT

Why important for Why important for

MY/OUR PROBLEM CHANGE VS DON’T

To prevent common mistakes of To prevent common mistakes of

© Dr. Alan Barnard, Goldratt Research Labs, 2019

The 5-Step ProConCloud Method

✓ ✓ YES, AND…how to make it sufficient?

✗ ✗ YES, BUT…it has negatives

© Dr. Alan Barnard, Goldratt Research Labs, 2019

The 5-Step ProConCloud Method

Step 5 Now Just do it!

Your Experiment Design

To prevent common mistake of To prevent common mistake of

© Dr. Alan Barnard, Goldratt Research Labs, 2019

CHANGE (SOLUTION) NOT CHANGE

- OF CHANGE - OF NOT CHANGE - OF CHANGE - OF NOT CHANGE

THEIR THREAT MY / OUR THREAT

“They” some9mes RESIST GOOD CHANGES We sometimes MAKE BAD CHANGES

© Dr. Alan Barnard, Goldratt Research Labs, 2019