Assignment-1

1. Suppose∪P (A) = p1 , P (B) ∩ ∩ B) = p3 . Find

∪ = p2 and P (A ∪ the following
∩probabilities
(i)P (A ∩B), (ii)P (A B), (iii)P (A B), (iv)P (A B), (v)P (A ∩ ∪ B)
(vi)P (A B), (vii)P (A|B), (viii)P (A|B), (ix)P (B|A), (x)P (A (A B))

2. What is the probability that three children in a family have different birthdays?
(Assume, 1 year = 365 days).

3. A card is drawn from a pack of 52 cards. Find the probability of getting a king or
a heart or a red card?

4. A die is biased such that the chance of getting one is x4 , of two is 14 , of six is 1−x
4
,
1
and the chances of getting three, four and five are 6 . This die is thrown twice, what
is the chance of getting a total seven?

5. If P (A|B =P(B= P (A ∪ B)=1/2, are A and B independent?

∩ ∪
6. A and B are two independent events. P (A B) = .16 and P (A B) = .64, find
the P (A) and P (B).

7. In the experiment consisting of 10 throws of a pair of fair dice, find the probability
of the event that at least one double 6 occurs.

8. A box contains 1000 light bulbs. The probability that there is at least one defective
bulb is 0.1, and the probability that there is at least two defective bulbs is 0.05, find
the probability of each of following case
(i) The box contains no defective bulb,
(ii) The box contains exactly one defective bulb, (iii) The box contains at most one
defective bulb.

9. Reliability- The reliability of a system is defined as the probability of proper

functioning of that system. The following diagram shows the reliabilities of the
components of a system. The components operates in a mutually independent
manner and the system fails only when the path from A to B is broken. Find the
reliability of the system as a function of R1 , R2 , R3 , R4 and R5 .

R2

R5

R4 B
A R1

R3

10. A man is known to speak the truth 3 out of 5 times. He throws a die and says that
it is 6. What is probability that it was actually 6? (Hint- use the Bayes’s rule)

1
11. An experiment has two possible outcomes: the first with probability p and second
with probability p2 . Find p.

12. A new airline runs a commuter shuttle service using refurbished world war I bomber.
The two-propeller plane will fly if either or both of the engine function. Supposer
the probability that Port engine fails is 0.10, and probability that Starboard engine
fails is 0.15, and the probability that both Port and Starboard engine fail is 0.015.
What is the probability that the plane will complete next flight?

13. Consider two urns A and B. Urn A contains 4 white and 5 red balls; urn B contains
5 white and 4 red balls. Two balls are transferred from urn A and then one ball is
drawn from urn B. What is the probability that drawn ball is a white ball.

14. John is not a bright student. His chances of passing in Chemistry is 0.35, in Ma-
thematics 0.40, and in both 0.12. Are the events“John passes in Chemistry” and “
John passes in Mathematics” independent? What is the probability that he fails in
both the subjects.

15. Consider a randomly selecting a student at a certain university, and let A denote
the event that the selected individual has a Visa card and B be the analogous
∩ event
for the Master card. Suppose that P (A) = 0.5, P (B) = 0.4 and P (A B) = 0.25.

(a) Compute the probability that the selected individual has at least one of the
two types of the cards.
(b) What is the probability that the selected individual has neither type of card?
(c) Describe, in terms of A and B the event that the selected student has Visa
card but not a Master card, and then calculate the probability of this event.
(d) Calculate and interpret each of the the following probabilities (i) P (B|A) (ii)
P (B c |A) (iii) P (A|B) (iv) P (Ac |B).
(e) Given that the selected individual has at least one card, what is the probability
that he or she has a Visa card.?

16. Consider three urns A, B and C. Urn A contains 2 white and 4 red balls; urn B
contains 8 white and 4 red balls; and urn C contains 1 white and 3 red balls. If one
ball is selected from each urn, what is the probability that the ball chosen from urn
A was white, given that exactly 2 white balls were selected?

17. The chances of John, Henary and Lee becoming manager of a certain company are
4:2:3. The probabilities that a bonus scheme will be introduced if John, Henary
and Lee becomes manager are 0.3, 0.5 and 0.8, respectively. If the bonus scheme
has been introduced, what is the probability that John has been appointed as a
manager.

18. Each coefficient in the equation ax2 + bx + c = 0 is determined by throwing an

ordinary die. Find the probability that equation will have real roots.

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 Assignment 1.1

1. Given P(A)= 2/5, P(B)=3/10 and P (A|B) = 1/5, find P (AU B).

2. If P(A)= 0.40, P(B)=0.55 and P (A|B)=0.22, are events A and B are independent?

3. A card is selected at random from ordinary deck of 52 playing cards. Consider

the following events: A = {heart} and B = {f ace card}. Find P(A), P(B), and
P(AB). Also find P (A ∪ B).

4. Three horses A,B,C are in race; A is twice as likely to win as B, and B is twice as
likely to win as C.

(a) Find their respective probabilities of winning, that is P(A), P(B) and P(C).
(b) Find the probability that B or C wins.

5. A mechanical system assembly plant purchases a certain component from three

independent vendors: A, B, and C, who supply 20%, 30% and 50% respectively of
the total number of components needed by the assembly plant. On an average, the
percentage of defective components supplied by vendors A, B and C are 5%, 3%
and 2% respectively.
(i) If a component is selected at random, find the probability that it is defective.
(ii) If the selected component is defective, what is the probability that it was supplied
by the vendor C.

6. The probability that a new airport will get an award for its design is 0.16, the
probability that it will get an award for the efficient use of materials is 0.24, and the
probability that it will get both the awards is 0.11. What is the probability that it
will get only one of the award.

7. A pair of fair dice is rolled. Find the probability of a sum of 5 given that the sum
is odd .

8. The experiment is rolling of a pair of fair dice. Let A be the event 1 on the one die
and B be the event 1 on the other die. Let C be the event that the sum of the dice
is odd. (i) Are A and B independent? (ii) Are B and C independent? (iii) Are A
and C independent? (iv) Are A, B and C independent?

9. A memory module consists of 9 chips. The device is designed in such a way that
it works even if one of its chip is defective. Each chip contains n transistors and
function properly if all of its transistors work. A transistor works with probability p
independent of any other transistor. (a) What is the probability that a chip works?
(b) What is the probability that memory module works?

10. At a certain petrol filling station, 40% of the customer use regular petrol, 35% use
unleaded petrol, and 25% use premium petrol. Of those customers using regular
petrol, only 30% fill their tanks. Of those customers using unleaded petrol, 60% fill
their tanks, whereas of those using premium petrol, 50% fill their tanks. What is
the probability that the a customer fills the tank? If the customer fills the tank,
what is the probability that premium petrol is requested?.

1
11. Consider three urns A, B and C. Urn A contains 2 white and 4 red balls; urn B
contains 8 white and 4 red balls; and urn C contains 1 white and 3 red balls. If one
ball is selected from each urn, what is the probability that the ball chosen from urn
A was white, given that exactly 2 white balls were selected?

12. A computer center has three printers A, B, and C which print at different speed.
Programs are routed through the first available printer. The probability that a
program is routed to printers A, B, and C are 0.6, 0.3, and 0.1, respectively. Oc-
casionally printer will jam and destroy the printout. The probability that printer
A, B, and C will jam are 0.01, 0.05, 0.04, respectively. Your program is destroyed
when a printer jams. What is the probability that printer B is involved?

13. Suppose that a missile can have a several independent and identical computers with
reliability 0.9 connected in parallel so that the system will continue to function as
long as at least one computer is operating. If it is desired to have system reliability
at least 0.999, find the number of computers that can be connected in parallel.

14. (a) Consider the system of components connected as in the accompanying picture.
Calculate the probability that system will work.

0.8

0.9

0.8

(b) A system consists of four components, as illustrated in Figure. If components

work or fail independently of one another and if each works with probability
0.9, what is the probability that entire system will work.

1 2

3 4

(c) Consider the system of components connected as in the accompanying picture.

If components work independently of one another and P (component works) =
0.9, calculate P (system works).

3 4

2
 1 3 4

2 5 6

(d) Consider the system of components connected as in the accompanying picture.

If components work independently of one another and P (component works) =
0.9, calculate P (system works).