Climate Change and the Food System in Miami-Dade County

A Preliminary Assessment of Potential Climate Change-Driven

Transformation to the Food System of the County

Maria Pulido-Velosa
Florida International University
Majors: B.S Environmental Studies & B.A International Relations
Intern at Planning and Environmental Management Office at FDOT
 Why is there a need for this research?
The food sector is one of the most vulnerable to climate change

South Florida also has high vulnerability to the impacts of climate change.
Mostly sea level rise and changes in hydrological systems

Miami-Dade County’s agriculture is highly dependent on specific

climatic conditions

Crucial for human populations to have food security and food sovereignty in
times of conflict/change

Although several climate change adaptation plans are being generated at different
levels of government, there is not yet one that addresses the food sector nor that
pays particular attention to the county’s food security
 Research Goals
How will climate change affect the local food system and how should county
planners include this issue in local climate change adaptation plans?
Crop yields and climate change
induced changes in temperature
1. Identify areas of the local food system that are and precipitation
vulnerable to climate change

Sea level rise impacts to

2. Gather research on possible climate change impacts to agricultural lands
those areas and how it affects the food system

Inundation risk in key

3. Compile information to make suggestions to transportation infrastructure
decision-makers on how to include the county’s food system
in local climate change adaptation plans.
US Counties with the Most Valuable Climates per Acre of
Farmland

*Highlights the
impact that
changes in local
climate
conditions can
have on
agricultural
production

Source: Yoo, Young Sin,

2002. The University of
Texas at Austin,
ProQuest Dissertations
Publishing).
 Crop yields and Climate Change Induced Changes in Temperature and Precipitation
1. What warmer and more variable temperatures mean for Miami-Dade’s agriculture

- As climate warms production patterns tend to shift northward, which can translate to a decline in agricultural
productivity in all of South Florida (Yoo, 2002)

- Increases in climate variability makes adaptation of agricultural practices difficult for farmers (Ainsworth,
2010).

- Different crops have different adaptation capabilities: citrus fruits crop yields are very likely to decrease with
warmer temperatures in the southernmost part of Florida because of a lack of a sufficient dormant period,
increases in temperature of about 6º F are expected to reduce corn yields by 14%. Uncertainty on the impacts
in yields of cotton and sorghum (Bradbear, 2013)
 2. Changes in Precipitation and impacts to the water supply:

- A lot of uncertainty about climate change

regional impacts to precipitation patterns.
We’re not even sure of the direction of
change!!

- Modeling for the driest scenario results in

unmet agricultural water supply and demand
of 40-58% (Walters et al, 2014)

- Increases in the population of South Florida

will increase the demand for water
resources.

- Less precipitation decreases freshwater

head in the everglades and biscayne aquifer-
risk of saltwater intrusion . Also impacted by Precipitation patterns predicted by different climate
sea level rise. models (J. Obeysekara, SFWMD, 2014- Included in Fifth
Biennial Review of Everglades Restoration).
 Sea Level Rise Impacts to Agricultural Lands

Southeast Florida Regional Climate Compact Unified Sea Level Rise

Projections for Planning Purposes

- SLR of 1 foot is
projected to
occur between
2040 and 2070

- With rates of sea

level rise
continuing to
increase into the
future. By 2100 it
is possible to see
2 feet of sea level
rise.

Source: Thomas et al, 2013.

 Inundation Risk in Agricultural Lands in Miami-Dade County
Inundation in agricultural lands at minimum 4.6 ft in elevation in Homestead under scenarios of 1 ft. and 2 ft. SLR

1 ft
of
0 ft. of SLR (Reference Scenario) SLR

2 ft
of
SLR

Source: FIU Sea Level Solutions Center

Eyes on the Rise Tool
 Sea Level Impacts to Key Transportation
Infrastructure
- Transportation is a key element of the food system in Miami-Dade
County, just like it is in most highly urbanized areas that depend on
reliable transportation infrastructure to transport food from production
locations and ports to markets

- Complications in the reliability of the transportation infrastructure that

impede effective transport of food would have major effects on the food
system of the county.
 Direct impacts of sea level rise on
Roadway Segments in Downtown Miami
transportation are possible, ranging from that are most vulnerable to SLR
impacts to aviation, marinas, ports, rail (FDOT, 2017)
lines, bridges and roads (Titus 2002). The
base of roadways and functioning of other
transportation facilities may be seriously 12th 8th
I-95
compromised by flooding. Ave Ave

The Florida Department of Transportation

has funded and co-led various studies on
potential impacts of sea level rise to
transportation infrastructure

Major roadways, such as freeways and W. Flagler

highways like I-95, 836 (Dolphin
Expressway), and 826 (Palmetto
Expressway) and the Turnpike are key for
food transportation (freight). SLR impacts
could have major effects in food
transportation in the region.
Summary of Findings and Recommendations for County Climate
Change Resilience Planning
- Higher temperatures and variability are expected to have negative effects on local agricultural outputs
- Adaptation capability of some crops is better than others. Should focus on transitioning to crops that
can adapt to more abrupt temperature changes.
- High uncertainty in climate change impacts to precipitation. Worst case scenario of decresed
precipitation would have detrimental impacts to the region’s freshwater supply and increase risk of
saltwater intrusion to the Biscayne Aquifer and the Everglades.
- Agricultural fields at low elevations and in proximity to water bodies are at risk of inundation as a result
of SLR.
- Food transport across the County is reliant on key transportation infrastructure. Some segments of
major roadways are at risk of being impacted by SLR
- These processes should be studied and planned for TOGETHER. Creating a comprehensive plan that
looks as the entire FOOD SYSTEM as a net of connected PROCESSES will help guide a blueprint for
adaptation that takes into account the FOOD SECURITY OF MIAMI DADE COUNTY in the face of GCC.

Further Research: Regional impacts (Broward, Monroe, Palm Beach), International Trade/Globalization