BAB 2.

2 JADWAL
PEMELIHARAAN DAN
KEADALAN
12. MENGHITUNG LOLP

LOLP Methode
Lost of Load Probability

3 unit Generation
Unit Capacity MW For Outage Rate Inage Rate ( 1 - FOR)
Unit A 50 0.05 0.95
Unit B 100 0.07
0 07 0.93
0 93
Unit C 200 0.10 0.90

Total 350

Outage State

On Outage MW Outage In Service Kombinasi Probability

nya
None 0 A,B,C
, , 1 1 1 .95*.93*.9 0.79515
A 50 B,C 0 1 1 .05*.93*.9 0.04185
B 100 A,C 1 0 1 .95*.07*.9 0.05985
C 200 A,B 1 1 0 .95*.93*.1 0.08835
A,B 150 C 0 0 1 .05*.07*.9 0.00315
A,C 250 B 0 1 0 .05*.93*.1 0.00465
B,C 300 A 1 0 0 .95*.07*.1 0.00665
A,B,C 350 None 0 0 0 .05*.07*.1 0.00035
Total 1.00000
Load 220 MW
Outage Max 350 - 220 = 130 MW

Probability cannot supply demand = Sum(... ) 0.08835 0.00315 0.00465 0.00665 0.00035
= 0.10315

Units Outage Based on Monotonically

MW Outage MW in Service Probability

0 350 0.79515
50 300 0.04185
100 250 0.05985
150 200 0.08835
200 150 0.00315
250 100 0.00465
300 50 0.00665
350 0 0.00035

Commulative Outage Probability

X MW or more outage Probability pf x MW Outage

0 1.00000
50 0.20485
100 0.16300
150 0.10315
200 0 01480
0.01480
250 0.01165
300 0.00700
350 0.00035
Contoh :

Mengevaluasi suatu sistem listrik dalam 1 minggu

Kapasitas sistem dengan daya terpasang seperti contoh diatas
Day Peak Load Capacity or more Probability
Outage not meet demand
Sunday 140 210 0.01165
Monday 280 70 0 16300
0.16300
Tuesday 240 110 0.10315
Wednesday 220 130 0.10315
Thursday 260 90 0.16300
Friday 290 60 0.16300
Saturday 130 220 0.01165

Total 0.71860

Probability dalam satu Minggu 0.7186

Probability padam pada beban puncak dalam satu minggu 5 hari/Minggu

Standart yang digunakan umumnya 0,1 hari pertahun sampai dengan 1 hari /pertahun
Jika 1 hari pertahun maka probability padam =1/365 = 0.0027397
Kit A B C
Kapasitas 50 100 200
FOR 0.05 0.07 0.1
O t
Outage Kombinasinya
K bi i I Service
In S i P b bili Reserved
Probabiliy R d Probabiliy
0 1 1 1 350 0.79515 350 0.00035 0.00035
200 1 1 0 150 0.08835 300 0.00665 0.00700
100 1 0 1 250 0.05985 250 0.00465 0.01165
300 1 0 0 50 0.00665
0 00665 200 0 08835 0.10000
0.08835 0 10000
50 0 1 1 300 0.04185 150 0.00315 0.10315
250 0 1 0 100 0.00465 100 0.05985 0.16300
150 0 0 1 200 0.00315 50 0.04185 0.20485
350 0 0 0 0 0.00035
0 00035 0 0 79515 1.00000
0.79515 1 00000
Total -> 1

Contoh :
K
Kapasitas
it 350 MW
Beban 220 MW
Cadangan 130 MW
LOLP 0.10315 = 38 hari/th
 KEANDALAN SYSTEM JAWA‐BALI 2005 ‐ 2009

TAHUN
ITEM Satuan
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

1 Kapasitas Pembangkit (MW) 19466 20046 22466 23231 24956

2 Retired (MW) 300
3 Tambahan Kapasitas
p ((MW)) 580 2420 1065 1725 820
4 Sub Total (MW) 20046 22466 23231 24956 25776
5 BP dng LOLP 1Hr/Th (MW) 15356 17531 18281 19961 20731
6 LOLP 1 Hr/Th Hari/Tahun 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
7 Reserve Margin (MW) 4690.0 4935.0 4950.0 4995.0 5045.0
8 Reserve Margin % 30.5 28.2 27.1 25.0 24.3
9 BP Skenario COAL (MW) 15330 16222 17142 18123 19250
10 Pertumbuhan % 6 6 6 6 6
11 LOLP Hari/Tahun 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.03 0.07
12 Reserve Margin (MW) 4715.5 6243.9 6088.5 6833.1 6525.4
13 Reserve Margin (%) 31 38 36 38 34
 LOLP vs Reserve Design Creteria

10

OLP [day/year]
1

0.1

LO
0.01
2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 6000 6500
Reserve [MW]

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

LOLP vs Load
Design Creteria

10 00
10.00

1.00
LOLP [day/year]

0 10
0.10

0.01

0.00
9,000 10,000 11,000 12,000 13,000 14,000 15,000 16,000 17,000 18,000 19,000 20,000 21,000 22,000 23,000
Load [ MW ]

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

15. Menghitung
g g Biaya
y Bahan Bakar
CAPACITY FACTOR =

Berdaarkan Merit Order:

Pemankt Murah sbg Base Load
Ampai pembangkit mahal sebagai peakers

Maintenance Kit
20. Konsumsi Energi
g Dalam Sistem
LOAD FACTOR
21. Jam Nyala
y Unit Pembangkit
g
22. Neraca Energi
g Dalam Sisem