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Engineering Model
Finance
Model
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Financial model
Capturing all the detail of the customer base dynamics,
the financial model allows the most comprehensive and
rigorous approach to forecasting the cost base and
ultimately a valuation.
The financial model outputs are those used by decision
makers at board level and the financial community.
The presentation pack produced by the financial model
provides a complete business case, which takes the
reader from an analysis of the population through to a
range of valuations.
The valuation of the business case is the ultimate
objective of the suite of models.
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The model combines inputs from the marketing and the engineering
models with operating cost assumptions to forecast the financial
statements and free cash flow.
Engineering Model’s Market Forecast Operational Structure,
Network Opex and Model Distribution Channels,
Capex Forecasts Staffing etc.
Customers and Revenue
Forecasts
Business Planning
Model
Network Capex and Opex Forecast Operating Cost Assumptions
Profit Cash
& Loss Flow
Balance
Sheet All figures in Nominal Local Currency
Essentially the question is how many customers are there and what
does the mobile operator has to deliver for the money paid by those
customers.
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Cost and Revenue Structure
End User Revenue
Internet
Connectivity
Cost
3G Operator’s
3G Operator’s
Radio
Core Network
Network
Cost
Cost 3G Operator’s
Hosting
Platform
Revenue
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The Diversity of 3G Applications and
Sources of Billing
Customer Category Application Type What is Billed
•Content placed on portal or in walled •Hosting, content & customer data management,
Content garden, retail outlet transport, secure transaction, billing & collection
Third Party
Provider •Delivery of push content, e.g. share •Transport
price information
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3G Tariff Dimensions for different
Services Packages
Tariff Dimension
E-mail, Highly
Messaging Relevant
telemetry Relevant
Download Highly
File Transfer
software Relevant
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Tariff Plans to Suit Market Segments
and Applications.
Customer Internet & Intranet Access Messaging Content
Internet Café model: pay per Pay per message without file Subscription based on
day when you want to use the attachment subscription to content
service Bundled number of messages Pay per event
Mass Low cost walled garden per month Pay per use for user pulled
Market Internet access with limited Free to user: 3rd party pays, content
Consumer messaging features e.g. payment instruction to Free to user: 3rd party pays,
Monthly subscription bank e.g. product information,
bank balance
2. Pengenalan kompetitor
Penting untuk diketahui situasi kompetitor yang ada, untuk
memastikan adanya peluang. Dalam hal ini bisa dilihat cakupan
dari kompetitor, performansi sistemnya, maupun juga jumlah
pelanggan untuk dibandingkan jumlah pelanggan potensial yang
belum terlayani.
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Apa sesungguhnya peranan seorang engineer ?
Setelah menerima
1. Memulai sketsa perencanaan pada daerah pelayanan,
laporan dari analis tujuannya adalah menghasilkan cakupan service pada daerah
ekonomi yang pelayanan dengan sesedikit mungkin jumlah sel, kapasitas
meneliti kelayakan sebesar mungkin untuk alokasi BW yang diberikan, serta kualitas
ekonomi, tugas sebaik mungkin.
seorang engineer
2. Menentukan jumlah kanal RF yang diperlukan untuk melayani
untuk mewujudkan prediksi trafik pada jam sibuk sampai beberapa tahun ke depan.
jaringan yang andal
dari sisi kapasitas, 3. Studi problem interferensi.
kualitas dengan biaya Cochannel interference, adjacent channel interference, maupun
seefisien mungkin juga kemungkinan terjadinya intermodulasi dari tiap sel.
Selanjutnya mencari cara-cara untuk mengatasi hal itu.
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Lalu..
Sebelum merencanakan sistem, seorang engineer harus memiliki pengetahuan yang
mendalam mengenai dasar-dasar teknologi selular, yang meliputi struktur sel, channel
asignment, cell splitting, sistem sel overlay, pemrosesan panggilan, konsep propagasi
radio , dan berbagai prinsip lainnya.
Seperti yang sudah dijelaskan dimuka, bahwa langkah pertama desain jaringan
telekomunikasi selalu berdasar tentang estimasi apa yang akan terjadi pada masa
datang terhadap jaringan yang hendak direncanakan. Dalam hal ini prediksi trafik
telekomunikasi merupakan hal penting yang pertamakali akan dilakukan.
Seorang RF enginner harus menganalisis 2 macam kondisi : (1), Pada kondisi yang
terburuk, dan (2), Pada kondisi rata-rata yang dicapai oleh jaringan yang didesain.
Dalam hal ini, kondisi performansi rata-rata akan menunjukkan ukuran persepsi
pelanggan mengenai kualitas yang akhirnya bermuara pada kepuasan pelanggan.
Sedangkan analisis kondisi terburuk adalah untuk mencegah berbagai kasus terburuk
yang mungkin akan terjadi.
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Adalah cukup sulit untuk mencapai performansi yang diharapkan
pada lingkungan komunikasi mobile yang sangat kompleks. Karena itu
diharapkan seorang engineer memiliki berbagai pengetahuan untuk
melakukan optimalisasi sistem yang nantinya akan melibatkan
berbagai solusi kompromi dari berbagai kondisi trade off yang nantinya
akan dihadapi. Berbagai metoda optimalisasi jaringan komunikasi
bergerak seluler ini diberikan pada bagian selanjutnya.
• Kapasitas
Goal • Coverage
• Kualitas
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Tujuan dari Perencanaan
Perencanaan jaringan
dimulai dari alokasi
lebar pita frekuensi
yang diberikan
pemerintah kepada
suatu operator seluler.
Alokasi lebar pita
frekuensi inilah yang
digunakan oleh
operator untuk
memberikan layanan
komunikasi dengan
kualitas komunikasi
yang sebaik-baiknya
dan untuk sebanyak-
banyaknya user.
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Diagram Alir Perencanaan Sel
START Kapasitas
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Demographic Anatomy of
Targeted Market (i-th year!)
Total Population 60% With Sufficient Income
100%
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Propensity to Adopt Mobile Comm. by Age
example from Western European country: Age is an important
discriminator.
Propensity to Adopt by Age
80%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
17 27 37 47 57 67 77
Age of Potentail Adopters
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Correlation between propensity to adopt mobile & income
example lower income country: Income matters.
Propensity to Adopt Cellular by Income
60%
y = 0.0852x + 0.0471
Potential Adopters in Sample
50% 2
R = 0.9818
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
<30 30-50 50-70 70-90 90-110 >110
Monthly Net Income
linked to changing
Penetration of Population
demographic patterns 40%
and changes in income.
The potential demand 30%
sets a penetration
ceiling, conceptually the 20%
maximum potential
penetration is the level at 10%
which the service life
cycle curve reaches its 0%
2002
2003
2011
2012
2013
1995
1997
1999
2001
2010
1996
1998
2000
2009
2004
2008
2007
2006
2005
upper limit.
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Number of Subsc. (Million)
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20
40
60
80
100
120
0%
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
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2007
2008
Saturation Level
2009
2010
2011
2012
Growth of Subscribers
2013
24
240
Traffic Growth
Saturation Level
200
Offered Traffic (kErl)
160
120
80
40
0%
2002
2003
2001
2000
2004
2008
2009
2010
1999
2013
1998
2005
2006
2007
1996
1997
2012
2011
1995
e.g voice traffic/user = 27 mErl which comprises 80% of total traffic, Data
traffic/user = 10 mErl which is the rest of total traffic. Combined average
generated traffic per user is 23.1 mErl.
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The Traffic Data from the Marketing Model
Drives Network Dimensioning.
Because the model is intended to be used in the
business-planning phase, it is essential that a
range of scenarios can be evaluated rapidly.
The impact of varying, for example, different
tariffs can be calculated instantly.
The engineering model can run completely in
the background so that business planners can
run scenarios without recourse to engineering.
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The Engineering Model covers Capex
and Opex for 2G and 3G Networks.
The capex and opex part of the 3G Mobile
Toolkit covers the technical aspects, including
capital and operational expenditures.
The scope of the 3G engineering model
includes dimensioning and costing for the
following elements:
Radio network
Core network & interconnect
Server network
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ENGINEERING
MODEL
What’s New on 3G
Multiservice environment:
Highly sophisticated radio interface.
• Bit rates from 8 kbit/s to 2 Mbit/s, also variable rate.
Cell coverage and service design for multiple
services:
• different bit rate
• different QoS requirements.
Various radio link coding/throughput adaptation
schemes.
Interference averaging mechanisms:
• need for maximum isolation between cells.
“Best effort” provision of packet data.
Intralayer handovers
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What’s New on 3G
Air interface:
Capacity and coverage coupled.
Fast power control.
Planning a soft handover overhead.
Cell dominance and isolation
Vulnerability to external interference
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What’s New on 3G
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3G (WCDMA) Radio Network
Planning Process
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1st. Coverage
coverage regions;
area type information:
Dense Urban, Urban, sub-urban, or rural
propagation conditions:
Indoor, outdoor
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Radio Link Budgets (WCDMA)
There are some WCDMA-specific parameters in the link
budget that are not used in a TDMA-based:
Interference margin:
• it is needed due to the traffic loading of the cell. The more loading is
allowed, the larger is the interference margin needed in the uplink,
and the smaller is the coverage area. Typical values for the
interference margin are 1.0–3.0 dB, corresponding to 20–50% Cell
loading.
Fast fading margin (power control headroom):
• Some headroom is needed in MS TX power for maintaining
adequate closed loop fast power control to be able to effectively
compensate the fast fading. Typical values for the fast fading margin
are 2.0–5.0 dB for slow-moving MS.
Soft handover gain:
• Soft handover gives an additional macro diversity gain against fast
fading by reducing the required Eb/No relative to a single radio link.
The soft handover gain is assumed between 2.0 and 3.0 dB
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RLB: Assumptions for MS and BS
MS
BS
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Example of WCDMA RLB for Voice
Link budget of AMR 12.2 kbps voice service (120 km/h, in-car users,
Vehicular A type channel, with soft handover)
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Example of WCDMA RLB for Data
Link budget of 144 kbps real-time data service (3 km/h, indoor user
covered by outdoor BS, Vehicular A type channel, with soft handover)
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Cell range calculation
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RLB: Okumura-Hatta Model
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Cell Range
From the RLB above, the cell range R can be
calculated. e.g with the Okumura–Hata
propagation model for an urban macro cell with
base station antenna height of 30 m, mobile
antenna height of 1.5 m and carrier frequency of
1950 MHz:
L = 137.4 + 35.2 log10 (Rkm) …..Urban
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2nd. Capacity
Spectrum availability;
Subscriber growth forecast;
Traffic density information to estimate the
amount of supported traffic per base
station site.
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3th. Quality of Service
Area location probability (coverage
probability);
Blocking probability;
End user throughput.
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3G W-CDMA Capacity (1)
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3G W-CDMA Capacity (2)
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Uplink Load Factor
Load Factor:
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Downlink Load Factor
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Noise Rise Capacity
The load equation
predicts the amount of
noise rise over thermal
noise due to interference.
The noise rise is equal to
-10log10(1 – UL).
The interference margin
on row i in the link budget
must be equal to the
maximum planned noise
rise.
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Example (DL) Load Factor Calculation
1. Assume the required aggregate cell throughput in kbps. Through-
put is equal to the number of users Nx(bit rate R)x(1 - BLER).
2. Calculate load factor DL from Equation above.
3. Calculate average path loss from RLB.
4. Calculate maximum path loss by adding 6 dB.
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Maximum Path Loss Calculations
for Data Transmission
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Capacity vs Coverage
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Base Station Transmission Power
The minimum required transmission power for each user is
determined by the average attenuation between base station
transmitter and mobile receiver, L, and the mobile receiver sensitivity,
in the absence of multiple access interference (intra- or inter-cell).
Then the effect of noise rise due to interference is added to this
minimum power and the total represents the transmission power
required for a user at an ‘average’ location in the cell. Mathe-
matically, the total base station transmission power can be expressed
by the followingequation:
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Effect of BS TX Power to DL
Capacity and Coverage
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Capacity per Subscriber
Capacity depends on AMR rate (voice) and data
rate for the associated Eb/No.
e.g. 5 MHz W-CDMA carrier capacity is 800
kbps/cell or 80 voice channels/cell, Downlink
Packet Access (HSDPA) carrier capacity is 2000
kbps/cell.
Cell capacity utilisation is 80% during busy
hours;
Busy hour carries 20 % of daily traffic.
1000 subscribers per site;
3 sectors per site, 2 carrier (i.e 10MHz), Config.
2+2+2
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Capacity per Subscriber
Uplink:
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Iteration of Capacity and Coverage
Calculations
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Case Study: Planning in Espoo,
Finland
Please refer to:
Hari Holma & Antti Toskala, “WCDMA for
UMTS”, 3rd Ed., John Wiley & Son, 2004,
p.210 – 214.
Course Work: Make a resume from that
section! Submit due to the end of Semester
(before UAS).
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Network Optimisation
Network optimisation is a process to
improve the overall network quality as
experienced by the mobile subscribers
and to ensure that network resources are
used efficiently. Optimisation includes:
1. Performance measurements.
2. Analysis of the measurement results.
3. Updates in the network configuration and
parameters.
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Network Optimisation Process
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Network Performance
Measurements
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Network Tuning with Antenna Tilts
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GSM - WCDMA Co-Planning
Utilisation of existing base station sites is important in speeding up WCDMA
deployment and in sharing sites and transmission costs with the existing
GSM networks. The feasibility of sharing sites depends on the relative
coverage of the existing network compared to WCDMA. Typical maximum
path losses with existing GSM and with WCDMA:
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Co-siting of GSM and WCDMA
Since the coverage of WCDMA typically is satisfactory when
reusing GSM sites, GSM site reuse is the preferred solution in
practice.
The co-siting of GSM and WCDMA is taken into account in 3GPP
performance requirements and the interference between the
systems can be avoided.
Co-sited WCDMA and GSM systems can share the antenna
when a dual band or wideband antenna is used. The antenna
needs to cover both the GSM band and UMTS band. GSM and
WCDMA signals are combined with a diplexer to the common
antenna feeder.
The shared antenna solution is attractive from the site solution
point of view but it limits the flexibility in optimising the antenna
directions of GSM and WCDMA independently.
Another co-siting solution is to use separate antennas for the two
networks. That solution gives full flexibility in optimising the
networks separately.
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Co-siting of GSM and WCDMA
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