Behavioral Analysis

NGUYEN TRONG HIEP

B8TM9601

Impact of coastal structure and flood on the disappearance of

sandspit, Da Rang River mouth, Vietnam

Summary

Since 2015, the area of sandspit at Da Rang River mouth has started
reducing. The reasons caused this phenomenon are various; however, the
construction took place in 2015 is considered of the main reasons. In this report,
the reduction of sandspit’s area is examined by applying generalized linear
regression model with two influence parameters which are length of constructions
with respect to time and also the maximum river discharge corresponding to flood
events. The results indicate the negative effect of these parameters onto the
development of the sandspit.

I. Introduction and Coastal Engineering background.

Da Rang River mouth located in Tuy Hoa Province, Phu Yen is the river
mouth of Ba River which is the biggest river at South Central of Vietnam. The
main feature of this coastal area is the sandspits on both sides. In late 2015, the
protective construction was implemented in order to protect the area behind it;
however since the existence of the structures, the sandspit has the trend of decrease
in its area. Plus, floods events occurring frequently every year also contributes to
the disappearance of this area.

Figure 1. Sandspit development

 Figure 2. Examples of rectified Google Image

General, a stable estuary ed by the longshore sediment transport induced by

approaching waves and sediment from the river mouth. If one of two main factors
is missing, the mechanism of the estuary will be interrupted as expressed in Figure
1.

Figure 3. Data collection

II. Data collection.
2.1 Satellite imagery (Google Earth)
The data used in this report are images in the period from 2015 to 2017 (12
images) obtained from Google Earth database. All photos were rectified into one
coordinates system which some representative photos are presented in Figure 2.
2.2 Data extraction from images &
From the obtained images, the areas of the sandspit, length of structures
were measured precisely. Plus, the maximum river discharge was collected from a
station located upstream as shown in Figure 3.

III. Generalized linear regression model.

3.1 Model considers structure length
Firstly, the model will examine the impact of solely structure length (x1) and
the predicted values (y) will be normal distributed.. The link function will be

Figure 4. Fitting line and Residual diagram

shown in Equation 1 where p-value equals 7.6071e-05 <0.05 and the square
residual equals 0.8049. These values indicate that the model fits well with the data.
The intercept value demonstrates the reduction of the sandspit area as the
structures expands. This can be interpreted that the construction has blocked the
sediment from the right side of the river mouth as more sediment was accumulated
surrounding the constructions.
y = 1.6283e+05 + (-58.473)x1
3.2 Model considers structure length and flood event
Even though, the trend of interaction between the area and the structure is
obvious, however, the disappearance of the sandspit could be more rapid as the
coastal area gets destructed by flood event. Therefore, the model will be improved
by considering both structure’s length (x1) and discharge by flood (x2). The link
function is expressed by Equation 2.
y = 1.9924e+05 + (-60.424 )x1 + (-5.9644)x2
The p-values are respectively 4.4694e-07 and 0.00047809 to conclude the
agreement when both length of structure and flood are involved. It is noticeable
that due to the blockage by the structure, supplied sediment was reduced by a big
amount, but flood events could cause it more severe as it flushes sediment of the
sandspit offshore. This leads to the extreme loss of area of the sandspit within 3
years.

Figure 5. Fitting diagram

IV. Conclusions
By applying generalized linear model, it is clear that the impact of the
structure and natural extreme event on the sandspit at Darang River mouth. With
the trend of reduction recently, the sandspit of Darang River mouth has had high
potential of disappearance.