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Theor Appl Climatol (2016) 125:93–100

DOI 10.1007/s00704-015-1498-7

ORIGINAL PAPER

Impacts of climate variation on the length of the rainfall season:


an analysis of spatial patterns in North-East South Africa
Tibangayuka Kabanda 1 & Shandukani Nenwiini 2

Received: 1 November 2014 / Accepted: 27 April 2015 / Published online: 10 May 2015
# Springer-Verlag Wien 2015

Abstract This study examines the impacts of climate varia- to plant their crops. Under these circumstances, it is easy to see
tion on the length of the rainfall season in the north-east South how rainfall variation can lead to crop failure and cause food
Africa (Vhembe District). We first demarcated the area into insecurity in the district.
two major homogeneous rainfall zones namely humid and
semi-arid using Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Then
we determined the rainfall climatology of each zone in terms 1 Introduction
of rainfall onset and cessation in view of the emerging climate
variation. Sixty years of rainfall data were examined, and a Vhembe District (Fig. 1) which is situated in North-East South
significant decreasing trend in rainfall was observed starting in Africa is one of the five districts of Limpopo province in
the 1990s. Generally, the seasonal rainfall onset and cessation South Africa. Its population is largely dependent on subsis-
are changing, making the rainfall season length shorter. The tence farming and commercial farming that generally depend
rainfall characteristics are changing gradually in the humid on rainfall. Previous studies (Nenwiini and Kabanda 2013;
zone, where it was found that there is a marked change in Kabanda 2011) have shown that rainfall in the area is chang-
the onset dates between what it used to be before the 1990s ing and is projected to have greater impacts on water resources
and how it has been since. The rainfall season length has through the changes in rainfall climatology from global to
decreased by 50 days. Rainfall characteristics in the semi- local scale. This is likely to affect the seasonal rainfall charac-
arid zone are highly variable with a coefficient of variation teristics (onset, length and cessation) which are very important
(CV) of up to 39 %. Continuous significant decline (at the factors for subsistence food production. Variability of water
≥95 % level) since the mid-1990 suggests that the humid areas resources in response to rainfall changes may negatively affect
will continue to dry while the semi-arid might develop into the district agricultural production and development projects
arid zone. Significant changes were also detected in the ces- progress. This vulnerability will be worsened by lack of suf-
sation of rainfall. In general, the uncertainties and changes in ficient rainfall information at a local level that can aid water
rainfall characteristics add strain on farmers who are faced management planners and subsistence farmers.
with the season of inconsistent rain and uncertainties in when The first objective of this study is to classify Vhembe Dis-
trict in Limpopo Province of South Africa into different cli-
matic zones based on rainfall homogeneity. This attempt is
made using Principal Component Analysis (PCA). PCA was
* Tibangayuka Kabanda used since it is capable of reducing the dataset of input vari-
tibangayuka.kabanda@nwu.ac.za ables (in this case rainfall) into a set of fewer dimensions that
Shandukani Nenwiini are non-correlated and independent and are more readily in-
nenwisc@unisa.ac.za terpretable than the original data. The importance of develop-
1
Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, North West ing a climate classification was realised by a German meteo-
University, Private Bag X2046, Mmabatho 2735, South Africa rologist known as Wladimir Köppen at around 1900. He di-
2
College of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences, University of vided the land areas of the world into five major climate cat-
South Africa, P. Box 392, Unisa 0003, South Africa egories (Köppen 1918). The subdivision include the tropical
94 T. Kabanda, S. Nenwiini

Fig. 1 Location of Vhembe District in South Africa

moist climate, dry climate, moist mid-latitude climate, and the arid-steppe-hot arid. However, this description would hold
polar climates. only if the area was flat, thus devoid of the local orographic
A climate classification is an attempt to divide areas into effect. However, the Vhembe District features a prominent
regions or zones with an approximately homogeneous set of mountain range (the Soutpansberg) which modifies the local
climate condition. In this study, different climatic areas in climate. It was observed (Peel et al. 2007) that if the elevation
Vhembe District are grouped into specific zones with approx- was included, it has the potential to enhance the final Köppen–
imately homogeneous climate conditions based on rainfall Geiger climate classification since elevation plays a key role
alone because the data are dense and readily available. A in the observed spatial pattern of precipitation and temperature
number of studies have been done at a global, regional, and and is an important variable in the interpolation of precipita-
local scale. tion and temperature fields according to Daly (2006). Peel
World climate classification was developed by Wladimir et al. (2007) did not use elevation (3-day interpolation) in their
Köppen and Geiger in around 1900 based on empirical sys- modification approach due to sparse station density, particu-
tems which include observable features such as temperature larly in high elevation regions.
and precipitation (Kottek et al. 2006). They classified the cli- Ritter (2006) explained that the purpose of classification is
mate spatially and divided world land areas into five major to organize a set of data or information about something to
categories which are tropical climates that are dry (arid and effectively communicate in an informative way. He further
semi-arid) climates, temperate climate, continental climate explained that climate classification helps to group informa-
and polar climates. tion into smaller units that are more easily understood. The
Köppen modified the climate classification system by other known climate classifications include that of
selecting the boundaries of the climate zones with the concept Thornthwaite (1931), Basalirwa (1995), Bailey (1996), Stern
of native vegetation in mind (Köppen 1931). Recently, using and de Hoedt G Ernst J (1999) and Basalirwa et al. (1999).
data sets from the Climatic Research Unit of East Anglia and Therefore, climate classification can be done at any scale to
Global Precipitation Climatology Centre at the German depict various homogeneous climate conditions of an area. In
Weather Services, a new digital Köppen–Geiger map on cli- this case, regional, national, provincial and district level clas-
mate classification for the second half of the twentieth century sification can be supported provided diversity of climate zones
was compiled (Kottek et al. 2006) and yet another modifica- are discriminated in each. At a scale of a district, these types of
tion was done a year later (Peel et al. 2007). climate classification are fundamental in order to facilitate
When exploring the Kottek et al. (2006) updated world understanding and use of climate information by public and
map of the Köppen–Geiger climate classification, the study private sector so that different areas can be assigned different
area (Vhembe) is characterised as BSh which translate into developmental programs for local economic development and
Variation of seasonal rain length in South Africa 95

poverty alleviation, based on the area-climatic support. A sec- data (White and Perry 2006) and that of the British Columbia
ond objective is to examine the rainfall characteristics of each based on the relationship to tree species distribution (Newham
zone that was identified by the first objective. 1968). Other similar studies conducted in various parts of the
globe include those of Baeriswyl and Rebetez (1997) in Swit-
zerland while Hanssen-Bauer et al. (1997) in Norway used
2 Methodology PCA to estimate long-term precipitation trends. In Sri Lanka,
PCA was used to identify two dominant rainfall regions based
2.1 Study area on monthly rainfall records (Jayawardene et al. 2005). David
et al. (2007) delineated South Africa into 12 homogeneous
Vhembe District of South Africa (Fig. 1) extends from 22° S rainfall zones. However, these studies generally focused on
to 23.5° S and 29° to 31° 30′ E; it covers an area of about 60, defining large-scale climate zones, rather than the climate at
500 km2. The Soutpansberg is the most prominent mountain a local scale, which matters most in poverty alleviation goals.
range in the study. Mountainous regions are very effective in This study will investigate rainfall changes at a local scale.
extracting moisture from the ambient atmospheric flow via
various orographic precipitation mechanisms and the complex 2.2.2 Rainfall characteristics
topography of the Vhembe District is no exception. It acts as a
strong modifier of the region’s climate. There are various fac- To determine rainfall characteristics within different areas of
tors which make Vhembe District a centre of this study. First- Vhembe District, daily rainfall data over a period of 60 years
ly, it includes many of the most extensively degraded areas for ten stations which are located in the humid and semi-arid
(Botha and Fouche 2000; Hoffman and Ashwell 2001) in rainfall zones are transformed into rainfall dekads, which is 10
South Africa. Secondly, the area is densely populated with days rainfall. The computed dekads are used to determine the
approximately 200–350 people per kilometre squared (Pollard fluctuations of rainfall. The date of rainfall onset in the study
et al. 2003) and characterised by high livestock numbers such area is defined as the date after the beginning of October when
as cattle and goats, at 3–4 times the recommended stocking the rainfall accumulated over 10 consecutive days is ≥10 mm
rates (Shackleton 1993). Thirdly, the area holds two major provided that no dry spell within the following 30 days ex-
water management areas (WMA), namely, the Luvuvhu/ ceeds 10 days (Stern et al. 1981). The criterion used to deter-
Letaba (in the north-east /east) and the Limpopo (in the mine rainfall cessation is when the rainfall accumulated over
north-west/north). It is therefore important to understand its 30 consecutive days is <10 mm and should occur with an
climate in order to enhance its economy which is based on earliest starting day of 1st March. The latest work by
rain-fed agriculture and the availability of sufficient water re- Omotosho et al. (2000) and Mugalavai et al. (2008) also in-
sources for different uses including irrigation, tourism and vestigated the onset and cessation of rainy seasons in Africa.
mining. However, their approaches are complicated to be used by the
stake holders who lack sophisticated knowledge of
2.2 Material and methods atmospheric science and the required data in their respective
areas. For example, Omotosho et al. (2000) employs the
2.2.1 Principal component analysis equivalent potential temperature which need complicated pro-
cedure to calculate the equations involved and needs upper air
PCA is used to achieve the objective of grouping the areas that data which is not available in the study area. On the other
feature homogeneous climate conditions in their respective hand, Mugalavai et al. (2008) used evaporation data to deter-
zones in Vhembe District. It is a multivariate statistical tech- mine soil water balance. In order to get credible results, you
nique that involves linear transformations of a matrix of need to have a high density of class A evaporation pan mea-
standardised observed variables, based on the eigenvalues surements. Such data are not readily available in the study
and eigenvectors of either a correlation matrix or a covariance area, and therefore, rainfall data were used. The main advan-
matrix (Richman 1981). Jolliffe (2002) described PCA as a tage that rainfall data has over the other indicators is that, it is
dimension reducing technique which can be used to reduce readily and widely available in the study area and rainfall is a
data, where the original variables are replaced by a smaller principal parameter, while most other indicators are derived
number of principal components. Therefore, in this study, from it. These include crop yields, run-off, evapotranspiration
PCA was adopted since it is capable of reducing the dataset and soil moisture.
of input variables (in this case rainfall) into a set of fewer
dimensions that are non-correlated and independent and are 2.3 Coefficient of variation
more readily interpretable than the source data (Faust 1989).
Climate classification using this method includes that of Coefficient of variation (CV) is a measure of relative variation
England and Wales that was carried out based on agroclimatic rather than absolute variation; it expresses the standard
96 T. Kabanda, S. Nenwiini

deviation as percentage of the mean. The main use of the CV in the form of total amounts, percentages and percentage cu-
is to compare the variability of groups of observations with mulative of variance that represent the amount of variances
widely contrasting mean levels (Davis and Goldsmith 1988). accounted for by a particular component. The first component
The study area depicts statistical variations of various magni- accounts for the most variance and has a greater eigenvalue
tudes between the years within each decade from 1950 to and the next component accounts for the most variance that
2009. was not accounted for by the first component. The analysis
The CV is obtained as a percentage as follows: continues in this way until all of the variance in the data set has
been accounted. However, using the Kaizer criterion (Kaiser
CV ¼ ðS=μÞ  100 ðexpressed in percentageÞ ð1Þ
1960), we shall keep only the components whose eigenvalues
where S and μ are the standard deviation and long-term mean are 1 or greater; in this case, the first three components which
for the seasonal rainfall, respectively. account for 72.6, 4.6 and 3.7 % of the variance, respectively.
They share 81 % of the total variance.

3.2.1 Rotation sums of squared loadings


3 Results
Column four in Table 1 represents the rotation sums of
3.1 Climate classification squared loadings of the variance after the varimax rotation
(Kaiser 1958). Varimax rotation goal is to minimize the com-
To identify areas that feature similar rainfall patterns, a PCA plexity of the components by making the large loadings larger
with varimax rotation was employed with correlation matrix and the small loadings smaller within each component such
based on the long-term annual rainfall time series of 31 sta- that, the total amount of variance accounted for is
tions over a 40 year period (1970–2009). This period was used redistributed. After varimax rotation, the first component ac-
because it has the bulk of continuous station reports that are counts for only 30.4 % of the total variance and 26.6 and
well distributed in the study area. The observed variables are 23.6 % were accounted for by the second and third compo-
standardised during the course of the analysis to create a cor- nent, respectively.
relation matrix, where each variable is transformed to have a After the redistribution of variance, the loadings among the
mean of zero and a variance of one. The SPSS package was extracted components are expected to be refined relative to the
used in the computation and analysis. initial principal components. In Table 2, the component matrix
is shown to determine the loading or correlation between sta-
3.2 Total variance explained tions rainfall (V1 to V31) and the three components after
varimax rotation. A cut-off correlation coefficient r≥ 0.5
Table 1 shows the percentage of variance explained by various (Table 2) is used to select station rainfall that loads significant-
principal components in decreasing order. The first column ly on a given component.
shows the components extracted. The number of components Table 3 lists the stations significantly correlated with each
extracted during a PCA is equivalent to that of the variables component. Component 1 is most highly correlated with 12
that are put into it. In this study, 31 components are extracted stations, it is characterised by rainfall areas close to
from the 31 rainfall stations. However, Table 1 just represents Soutpansberg Mountain. The average annual rainfall in this
the optimal number of components, which are the minimum component exceeds 1200 mm (Munyati and Kabanda 2009).
number of components that accounts for the maximum possi- Therefore, it can be classified as a humid zone. Generally, the
ble variance; the rest do not make much sense. The initial area features evergreen montane forests, especially over high
eigenvalues are also presented in the table, they are explained altitudes (Mucina and Rutherford 2006).

Table 1 Total variance explained

Total variance explained

Compo nent (1) Initial Eigenvalues (2) Extraction sums of squared loadings (3) Rotation sums of squared loadings (4)

Total % of variance Cumula tive % Total % of variance Cumulative % Total % of variance Cumula tive %

1 22.5 72.6 72.6 22.5 72.6 72.6 9.4 30.5 30.5


2 1.4 4.6 77.3 1.4 4.6 77.3 8.3 26.7 57.1
3 1.2 3.8 81.0 1.2 3.8 81.0 7.4 23.9 81.0
Variation of seasonal rain length in South Africa 97

Table 2 Rotated Table 3 Rainfall stations per component


component matrix Stations Component
Component one Component two Component three
1 2 3
V20. Tsianda V2. Mara V9. Goedehoep
V1 0.199 0.502 0.717 V16. Palmaryville V28. Saambouberg V1. Zwartrandjes
V2 0.255 0.750 0.210 V14. Entabeni V4. Mara V12. Klein
V3 0.268 0.619 0.612 V22. Rambuda V17. Tshipise V24. Soekmekaar
V4 0.393 0.739 0.245 V27. Levubu V6. Banderliekop V10. Shefeere
V5 0.367 0.659 0.442 V15. Tshakhuma V29. Tolwe V7. Hanglip
V6 0.269 0.697 0.592 V18. Matiwa V5. Unagric V13. Roodeval Bos
V7 0.503 0.458 0.586 V21. Kruger V25. Pontdrift
V8 0.576 0.573 0.476 V31. vondo bos V3. Legraal
V9 0.419 0.219 0.779 V30. Mphephu V26. Messina
V10 0.318 0.313 0.649 V11. Nooitgedacht V23. Folovhodwe
V11 0.624 0.426 0.603 V8. Elim
V12 0.589 0.265 0.712
V13 0.561 0.519 0.569
V14 0.744 0.320 0.501
V15 0.713 0.301 0.554 2). Hence, it can be classified as sub-humid and it is a transi-
V16 0.770 0.332 0.459 tion between the other two zones.
V17 0.501 0.704 0.297
V18 0.693 0.493 0.275
V19 0.718 0.378 0.320 3.3 Rainfall characteristics
V20 0.816 0.355 0.271
V21 0.679 0.560 0.343 3.3.1 Humid zone rainfall onset
V22 0.736 0.446 0.307
V23 0.555 0.562 0.053 As shown in Table 4, in each decade from the 1950s to the
V24 0.397 0.361 0.704 1970s, the rainfall season started in dekad 28 on average—
V25 0.440 0.632 0.412 early October. In the 1980s, onset shifted to dekad 29 (mid-
V26 0.443 0.612 0.249 October), and in the 1990s and 2000s, onset was delayed until
V27 0.724 0.448 0.384 the 30th dekad (late October). The delay to the 30th dekad
V28 0.274 0.747 0.446
translates to a delay of about 20 days when compared with the
V29 0.318 0.675 0.414
onset in the 1950s.
V30 0.654 0.276 0.474
V31 0.668 0.240 0.539
3.3.2 Humid zone rainfall cessation

From rainfall cessation analysis (Table 5), it can be observed


that from the 1950s to the 1980s, the average cessation was in
The second component comprises of rainfall areas that are the 13th dekad, except in the 1960s when rainfall ended
located over the western and north western part of the study 10 days earlier (12th dekad). In the 1990s, rainfall ceased a
area. Rain shadow effects characterise this component. The dekad earlier than in most of the previous decades, and from
area is dry, featuring rainfall below the 500 mm isohyets. In 2000 to 2009, the rains ended two dekads earlier. Also, from
the northern ridge areas, the vegetation consists of tall-tree Table 5, the CV shows high variation between the years within
(e.g. Acacia nigrescens, Adansonia digitata, Brachystegia each decade from 1950 to 2009.
spiciformis in places) and small-tree (e.g. Combretum
apiculatum, Commiphora glandulosa, Crataegus mollis) spe-
cies (Butt et al. 1994; Mucina and Rutherford 2006). This 3.3.3 Semi-arid zone rainfall onset
component can be classified as semi-arid. The third compo-
nent is featuring as pockets within the humid zone, which are From Table 6, the rainfall season started on average in the 29th
maintained by spill-off clouds that extend beyond the moun- dekad (mid October) in the 1950s to the 1970s. It changes to the
tain area. However, the zone is drier compared to the adjacent 30th dekad (late October) in the 1980s to 2000s. This is a delay
humid zone, and wetter than the semi-arid zone (component in the onset of rainfall season by almost 10 days since 1980.
98 T. Kabanda, S. Nenwiini

Table 4 Rainfall onset in humid


zone based on dekad and grouped Decade 1950–1959 1960–1969 1970–1979 1980–1989 1990–1999 2000–2009
by decade
31 32 29 29 27 26
29 31 25 34 25 29
27 26 25 27 29 29
29 29 27 28 31 26
27 28 29 25 28 29
29 25 30 32 35 32
26 26 28 26 29 32
26 29 27 26 33 34
26 27 29 29 33 31
30 26 27 29 31 30
Mean Dekad 28 28 28 29 30 30
Standard deviation 1.8 2.3 1.7 2.8 3.1 2.6
Coefficient 7 8 6 10 10 9
of variation %

Table 5 Rainfall cessation in


humid zone based on dekad Decade 1950–1959 1960–1969 1970–1979 1980–1989 1990–1999 2000–2009
grouped by decade
15 13 14 11 11 12
16 13 15 13 10 8
10 13 13 9 12 9
13 15 13 12 8 12
17 12 15 12 15 11
15 7 16 13 14 13
11 12 13 13 10 11
11 16 11 12 11 3
9 16 8 16 16 10
13 7 15 15 13 10
Mean Dekad 13 12 13 13 12 10
Standard deviation 2.7 3.2 2.4 2.0 2.5 2.8
Coefficient 21 27 18 15 21 28
of variation %

Table 6 Rainfall onset in semi-


arid zone based on dekad and Decade 1950–1959 1960–1969 1970–1979 1980–1989 1990–1999 2000–2009
grouped by decade
30 30 26 30 34 30
29 31 26 33 31 29
27 30 28 29 29 28
30 30 27 29 31 29
30 30 32 26 29 29
28 25 31 34 30 31
28 28 27 28 30 30
27 29 34 33 32 29
33 30 28 28 28 30
30 28 30 29 30 31
Mean Dekad 29 29 29 30 30 30
Standard deviation 1.7 1.6 2.6 2.5 1.6 0.9
Coefficient 6 6 9 8 5 3
of variation %
Variation of seasonal rain length in South Africa 99

Table 7 Rainfall cessation in


semi-arid zone based on dekad Decade 1950–1959 1960–1969 1970–1979 1980–1989 1990–1999 2000–2009
grouped by decade
8 17 8 11 12 13
3 10 15 9 9 13
10 12 14 5 8 11
10 10 11 15 9 1
5 5 13 11 9 10
9 6 16 11 13 12
6 6 13 13 7 9
11 14 8 9 10 12
6 5 11 11 11 11
12 8 17 8 9 6
Mean Dekad 8 9 13 10 10 10
Standard deviation 3.1 3.2 2.8 2.9 1.7 3.8
Coefficient 39 36 22 29 17 38
of variation %

3.3.4 Semi-arid zone rainfall cessation which implies that there is an inevitable need to review the
current agricultural practices as well as water conservation and
Table 7 represents rainfall cessation in the semi-arid zone. management at local scale level. For example, since a reduc-
There is high interannual variability showing an erratic behav- tion of 50 days in rainfall was observed in recent rainfall
iour ranging between the 1st and the 17th dekad. As a result, it seasons, faster-maturing crops may be needed.
is difficult to predict the actual time of cessation with any Continuous significant decline from the 1990s onward sug-
reliability in the semi-arid zone. High variability in cessation gests that the humid areas will continue to dry, while the semi-
was probed further by computing the CV. Variability within arid might develop into arid zone. According to Kabanda and
each decade was much higher for rainfall cessation (up to Munyati (2010), the influence of (anthropogenic) global cli-
39 %) than for onset (up to 9 %). mate change on these regional rainfall characteristics is not
conclusive; nevertheless, this is suggested as an obvious likely
cause. The rainfall changes seen in recent decades are unprec-
4 Discussions and conclusions edented in living memory and tend to overcome the traditional
knowledge base and the coping mechanisms that evolved over
In this study, the changes in rainfall season characteristics hundreds of years. These rainfall disruptions jeopardise long-
were detected in the two rainfall zones (humid and semi-arid established farming practices and subsistence food produc-
zones). When comparing rainfall seasons from the 1950s to tion, as well as other economic development. Therefore, there
the 2000s in the humid zone, it can be seen that the rainfall is a need to review current agricultural practices as well as
season length (rainfall persistence) was reduced by 23 %, from water conservation and management in Vhembe District in
220 days to 170 days. In other words, it can be confidently order to cope with local and global climate change.
stated that the rainfall season is starting later and ending ear- This study has clearly demonstrated that climate studies
lier. The total length of rainy season has therefore reduced by focusing on localised areas are possible and important, since
50 days in this zone. We also see that rainfall onset has be- local-scale climate has direct relevance to large populations
come more variable at a decade scale. The analysis reveals an dependent on subsistence agriculture. The study also found
increase in the CV from 7 % prior to 1980s to 10 % in the some significant shifts in the seasonal timing and length of
second half of the study period (1980–2009). In the semi-arid rainfall. One of the greatest challenges noticed in this study is
zone, rainfall onset is also delayed, shifting from the 29th rainfall deficits threatening people’s livelihoods and
dekad through the 1970s to the 30th dekad in later decades. wellbeing. This information is very important to farmers in
However, the cessation of rainfall in this zone (semi-arid zone) the region in deciding on crop types to be cultivated and on
is highly variable with a CV of up to 39 %. planning sowing dates as a function of observed changing
Significant issues have emerged from this investigation. onset dates. The marked deterioration in rainfall conditions
These results (and others not reported here) indicate that sea- makes reliable local forecasting more important than ever.
sonal rainfall onset and cessation is changing, making the Measures are needed to improve and expand data collection
rainfall length considerably shorter. Also, there is no indica- and allow more accurate forecasts, in order to enable practical
tion that this trend is slowing down or changing for the better, responses to changes in rainfall conditions.
100 T. Kabanda, S. Nenwiini

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