Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans 77 (2017) 74–88

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Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans

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Interdecadal variation of precipitation days in August in the

Korean Peninsula
Jae-Won Choi a,∗ , Yumi Cha a , Hae-Dong Kim b
a
National Institute of Meteorological Research, Jeju, Korea, Korea
b
Department of Global Environment, Keimyung University, Daegu, Korea

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: The present study examines a climate regime shift in the time series of the number of rainy
Received 21 March 2016 days during August in the Korean Peninsula. The statistical change-point analysis indicates
Received in revised form 25 August 2016 that a significant shift occurred in the time series around 1998, providing a rationale to
Accepted 10 October 2016
divide it into two parts: 1975–1997 for the shorter rainy-day period and 1998–2012 for the
Available online 14 October 2016
longer rainy-day period. To examine the cause of recent rapid increases in the number of
days with precipitation in August in the Korean Peninsula, differences in the averages of
Keywords:
large-scale environments between the 1998–2012 period and the 1975–1997 period were
Climate regime shift
analyzed.
Precipitation
August The differences in stream flows showed that anomalous cyclones were reinforced in
Korean peninsula the East Asian continent while anomalous anticyclones were reinforced in the western
Statistical change-point analyses North Pacific at all layers of the troposphere. The anomalous anticyclones reinforced in
Number of days with precipitation the western North Pacific were associated with the western North Pacific subtropical high
(WNPSH) developed a little more toward the Korean Peninsula recently. Consequently, the
Korean Peninsula has been affected by anomalous south westerlies that supplied warm
and humid airs from low tropical regions to the Korean Peninsula. The vertical thermal
instability (warm anomaly at lower-level and cold anomaly at middle and upper-level)
developed near the Korean Peninsula. In addition, upper tropospheric jets were reinforced
further recently near the Korean Peninsula to provide good environments for development
of upward flows. The frequency of TCs that affect the Korean Peninsula in August also
increased rapidly since 1998.
© 2016 Published by Elsevier B.V.

1. Introduction

The characteristics of summer precipitation in the Korean Peninsula are the appearance of the first maximum period in
mid-July and the appearance of the second maximum period in mid- September (Ho and Kang, 1988; KMA, 1995). However,
during 1971–2000, the second precipitation maximum period was changed into early September or did not appear due to
increases in August precipitation and decreases in September precipitation. It means that Changma, the major rainy season,
and the following second rainy season were clearly divided in the previous epoch but their division is not clear in the recent
epoch due to increase in August precipitation. In addition, a study reported that the increase in precipitation in August
was related to the increase in the number of days of heavy precipitation in August (Lee and Kwon, 2004). Ko et al. (2005)

∗ Corresponding author.
E-mail address: choikiseon@korea.kr (J.-W. Choi).

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2016.10.003
0377-0265/© 2016 Published by Elsevier B.V.
 J.-W. Choi et al. / Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans 77 (2017) 74–88 75

reported that precipitation from the latter 10 days of July to early August which is a period after the end of Changma showed
a tendency to clearly increase in the northwest region of the Korean Peninsula. According to Park et al. (2008), whereas
the characteristics of precipitation in the Korean Peninsula during the past 10 years (1957–1968) were clear appearances
of two peak values in Changma and post-Changma precipitation, as precipitation in the time point at which Changma and
post-Changma precipitation were divided generally increased during the recent 10 years (1998–2007), the division between
the two periods disappeared.
Studies of monthly changes in summer precipitation in the Korean Peninsula also reported that changes were occurring
in the characteristics of Changma. Yoon et al. (2006) reported that summer precipitation in the Korean Peninsula that had
been concentrated in June-August became to be concentrated in August and September as well as October and that since
1993, as the number of days with dry weather increased and the occurrence of heavy precipitation became clear, heavy
precipitation that had been occurring due to the effects of topography gradually become to occur in inland areas too without
the effects of topography. Kim et al. (2008) divided the Korean Peninsula into the central region, the southern region, and
the Jeju region to study changes in regional summer precipitation and monthly distribution characteristics. They reported
that according to the results, recently, precipitation in July and September increased and precipitation in August decreased
in the central region and the southern region except for the Jeju region although there were differences in degrees by region.
They also indicated that precipitation in May-September was increasing because decrements in August were smaller than
increments in July and September. Other studies also proved that precipitation characteristics in the Korean Peninsula were
changing (Kang, 2000; Ho et al., 2003; Choi et al., 2008; Choi and Moon, 2008; Kim et al., 2010). Through such studies, it can
be seen that whereas maximum periods in the Korean Peninsula appeared in mid-July and mid-September in the past, the
division between the two periods has been disappearing recently.
Studies of precipitation characteristics in the Korean Peninsula include the following. Choi (2002) reported that although
the yearly number of days with precipitation decreased, yearly precipitation amount, yearly precipitation amount increased
and this phenomenon appeared intensively in summer. Kim et al. (2005) divided the cases of precipitation that occurred for
30 years (1971–2000) in the Korean Peninsula into small rain cases and heavy rain cases to study the number of days with
precipitation, yearly precipitation amount, and contribution to precipitation intensity by space. According to the results,
yearly precipitation amount as well as yearly numbers of days with precipitation showed tendency to increase due to heavy
rain.
Meanwhile, compared to studies of the trend of summer precipitation in the Korean Peninsula, studies of regime shifts
are relatively insufficient. Ho et al. (2003) showed that the time when summer precipitation and the frequency of heavy
precipitation events in the Korean Peninsula rapidly increased was the latter half of the 1970s. They presented low level
anomalous anticyclones as a cause of the sudden increase in summer precipitation in the Korean Peninsula in the latter half of
the 1970s suggesting that anomalous cold northerlies from those anomalous anticyclones formed convergence regions with
warm and humid air in the vicinity of the Korean Peninsula. In addition, Kim et al. (2006) proved that heavy precipitation
events caused by tropical cyclones (TCs) that came on shore of the Korean Peninsula during summer rapidly increased since
the latter half of the 1970s. They emphasized that the cause of the foregoing was the development of upper-tropospheric
troughs (UTT) on the northwest side of TCs when the TCs came on shore of the Korean Peninsula since the latter half of the
1970s. That is, the cause was that when UTTs developed on the northwest side of TCs, divergence was reinforced in the upper
layers of the troposphere. Some studies presented different study results from the regime shift in the latter half of the 1970s
as the timer when summer precipitation in the Korean Peninsula changed. With regard to changes in summer precipitation
in the Korean Peninsula, Kim et al. (2002) showed that in summer precipitation in the Korean Peninsula began to rapidly
increase in the early 1980s after applying 11 year moving averages to summer precipitation in the Korean Peninsula. Through
analysis, Ha et al. (2005) identified that precipitation began to decrease during the period (end July through mid-August)
between Changma and the autumn rainy season in the early 1990s. Although not a study of changes in summer precipitation,
Kim and Suh (2008) showed that all of yearly precipitation amount, the number of days with precipitation, and precipitation
intensity went through great changes in the mid-1990s using the Bayesian statistical technique. Ha et al. (2009) showed
that August precipitation increased since the 1960s from precipitation data for a long period close to 100 years (1912–2006)
observed at five weather observation stations in the Korean Peninsula.
As reviewed in the abovementioned studies, it can be seen that analyses of regime shifts of summer precipitation in
the Korean Peninsula show different results depending on the statistical techniques applied to the analyses, seasons, and
data periods. In addition, the abovementioned studies mentioned that the amounts and forms of precipitation in August in
the Korean Peninsula changed substantially. Therefore, the present study investigated changes in the number of days with
precipitation in August in the Korean Peninsula and analyzed the causes of changes.
In Section 2, data and analysis methods are introduced and in Section 3, the time series of the number of days with
precipitation in August in the Korean Peninsula are analyzed. In Section 4, causes of the changes in the number of days with
precipitation in August in the Korean Peninsula are analyzed. The present study is summarized in Section 5.
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Table 1
Information of 12 weather observation stations in Korea.

Station Geographic features Observation stating

◦ ◦
date (year-month-day)
Name ID Lat ( N) Lon ( E) Elevation (m)

Gangneung 47105 37.73 128.88 25.91 1911−10-03

Seoul 47108 37.56 126.96 85.50 1907−10-01
Incheon 47112 37.46 126.62 68.85 1904−08-29
Chupungnyeong 47135 36.13 127.99 242.00 1935−09-01
Pohang 47138 36.02 129.36 1.88 1944−07-17
Daegu 47143 35.87 128.62 57.64 1907−01-31
Jeonju 47146 35.82 127.15 53.48 1918−06-23
Ulsan 47152 35.55 129.31 34.69 1932−01-06
Gwangju 47156 35.17 126.88 70.53 1939−05-01
Busan 47159 35.10 129.03 69.23 1904−04-09
Mokpo 47165 34.80 126.38 37.88 1904−04-08
Yeosu 47168 34.73 127.73 66.05 1942−03-01

2. Data and methods

2.1. Data

In the present study, the numbers of days with precipitation in August observed at 12 weather observation stations
in the Korean Peninsula during 1975–2012 (38 years) provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) were
used. The information on and the spatial distribution of the 12 weather observation stations in the Korean Peninsula are
presented in Table 1 and Fig. 1. The reason why data on the numbers of days with precipitation in August after 1975 is that
the modernization of weather observation rapidy progressed since 1975 (Choi et al., 2010a, 2010b).
The tropical cyclone (TC) data was obtained from the best track archives of Regional Specialized Meteorological Center
(RSMC) – Tokyo Typhoon Center. This data consists of TC names, longitude and latitude positions, minimum surface central
pressures, and maximum sustained wind speeds (10-min average maximum winds to nearest 5 kts), which were measured
every 6 h from 1975 to 2012. The TCs were divided into four categories based on their maximum sustained surface wind
speeds (MSSWS), namely tropical depression (MSSWS < 17 m s−1 ), tropical storm (17 m s−1 ≤ MSSWS ≤ 24 m s−1 ), severe
tropical storm (25 m s−1 ≤ MSSWS ≤ 32 m s−1 ), and typhoon (MSSWS ≥ 33 m s−1 ). For this study, in addition to the above
four categories, the extratropical cyclones (ETs) transformed from TCs were included in the analysis. This is because ETs also
cause a huge loss of life and property in the mid-latitudes of East Asia.
Also, this study used the variables of geopotential height (gpm), zonal and meridional winds (ms−1 ), precipitable water
(kg m−2 ), air temperature (◦ C), total cloud cover (%) and specific humidity (g kg−1 ) data from National Centers for Environ-
mental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis in 1975 to 2012 (Kalnay et al., 1996;
Kistler et al., 2001). This NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data consisted of spatial resolution such as latitude and longitude 2.5◦ × 2.5◦
and 17 vertical levels (specific humidity is 16 vertical levels, and total cloud cover and precipitable water are 1 level). Also,
velocity potential consisted of grid box such as latitude and longitude 192 × 94 and 5 sigma levels.
The NOAA Extended Reconstructured monthly Sea Surface Temperature (SST) (Reynolds et al., 2002), available from the
same organization, was also used. The data have a horizontal resolution of 2.0◦ × 2.0◦ latitude-longitude and are available
for the period of 1854 to the present day.

Fig. 1. 12 Weather observation stations in Korea. Shaded area indicates topography.

 J.-W. Choi et al. / Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans 77 (2017) 74–88 77

Fig. 2. Time series of (a) rainy days that daily precipitation is greater than 10 mm in August in Korea (bar graph) and the result of change-point analysis
(dotted line) and (b) normalized values of rainy days that daily precipitation is greater than 10 mm in Korea.

2.2. Methods

This study used the Student’s t-test to determine significance (Wilks, 1995). In case that two independent time series
follow a t distribution and their time averages are denoted as x1 and x2 respectively, the test statistic is given by

x1 − x2
t=
1/2
(s12 /n1 + s22 /n2 )

where, S1 and S2 are standard deviations, and n1 and n2 are numbers of the two time series, respectively. From the above
formula, if the absolute value of t is greater than threshold values with a level of significance, the null hypothesis would be
rejected at the ˛(×100)% significance level.
To calculate the TC passage frequency, each position of a TC is binned into a 5◦ × 5◦ grid box, and a TC is only counted
once, although it may enter the same grid box several times.
To examine whether the year of a climate regime shift exists in the time series of the numbers of days with precipitation in
August in the Korean Peninsula, statistical change-point analysis was applied to the time series. When this analysis method,
t values produced and a climate regime shift exist in the year in which the absolute value of t is the largest. Please refer to
studies conducted by Elsner et al. (2000), Chu (2002), and Ho et al. (2004) for more details.

3. Analysis of time series of the numbers of days with precipitation in august in the korean peninsula

Fig. 2a shows the time series of the number of August rainy days counted when daily precipitation exceeds 10 mm in
the at least 8 weather observation stations (2/3 of total station numbers). The baseline is adopted from Jung and Lim (1994)
which analyzed long-term variation in the number of rainy days in Seoul. In August in the Korean Peninsula, the number
of days with precipitation shows clear interannual and interdecadal variations. In addition, the number of days showed an
increasing tendency until recently (thick solid line) and the tendency is significant at the 90% confidence level. Statistical
change-point analysis was applied to this time series to examine whether the climate regime shift existed in this time
series. According to the results, the largest absolute t-value existed in 1998 and the analysis period of 38 years in total
can be divided into a low frequency period from 1975 to 1997 (hereinafter, referred to as 1975–1997 period) and a high
frequency period from 1998 to 2012 (hereinafter, referred to as 1998–2012 period). The climatological average number of
days with precipitation in August for 38 years is 6.8 days (dashed line). The average number of days with precipitation (5.2
days, blue line) in the 1975–1997 period is shorter by 1.6 days. This difference is significant at the 90% confidence level. The
climatological average number of days with precipitation in August (8.3 days, red line) in the 1998–2012 period is longer by
1.5 than the climatological average number of days with precipitation in August for 38 years and the difference is significant
at the 90% confidence level too. Eventually, the average number of days with precipitation in August in the 1998–2012 period
is longer by 3.1 days than that in the 1975–1997 period and the difference is significant at the 95% confidence level.
The difference in the numbers of days with precipitation in August between these two periods can be seen more clearly
in the time series of normalized values (Fig. 2b). Whereas many years in the 1975–1997 period had values smaller than 0,
many years in the 1998–2012 period showed values not smaller than 0. Whereas the average value in the 1975–1997 period
78 J.-W. Choi et al. / Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans 77 (2017) 74–88

Fig. 3. Differences in (a) total cloud cover and (b) precipitable water between 1998 and 2012 and 1975–1997 in August. Contour intervals are 2% for total
cloud cover and 1 kg m−2 for precipitable water. Shaded areas are positive values.

was −0.4 (blue line), the average value in the 1998–2012 period is 0.5 (red line) so that the difference in average values
between the two periods is close to 1.
Therefore, in sections hereafter, to examine the cause of recent rapid increases in the numbers of days with precipita-
tion in August in the Korean Peninsula, differences in the August averages of large-scale atmospheric environments in the
1998–2012 period and the 1975–1997 period are analyzed.

4. Differences between 1998 and 2012 period and 1975–1997 period

In the present study, first, to examine the levels of possibility of precipitation, differences in total cloud cover and pre-
cipitable water between the two periods were analyzed (Fig. 3). First, as for the total cloud cover, positive anomalies were
distributed from the central region of China to the North Pacific Ocean covering the Korean Peninsula (Fig. 3a). In particular,
the center of the positive anomalies was located in the Korean Peninsula. This indicates the recent highest possibility of
precipitation in August in the Korean Peninsula in East Asia. On the other hand, negative anomalies were reinforced in the
southern and northern regions of China.
The spatial distributions of differences in precipitable water between the two periods are similar to those of differences
in total cloud cover between the two periods (Fig. 3b). Positive anomalies were also distributed from the central region
of China to the North Pacific Ocean covering the Korean Peninsula. In particular, the center of the positive anomalies was
located in the Korean Peninsula. This means that the center of the positive anomalies has been recently located in the Korean
Peninsula in East Asia. On the other hand, negative anomalies were located in the southern and northern regions of China.
To examine the cause of recent increases in the number of days with precipitation, total cloud cover, and precipitable
water in August in the Korean Peninsula as such, differences in 850 hPa stream flows between the two periods were analyzed
(Fig. 4a). The analysis areas are largely divided into an area of anomalous cyclonic circulations in the latitudinal zone ranging
from the equator to 15◦ N, an area of anomalous anticyclonic circulations in the latitudinal zone ranging from 15◦ N to 35◦ N,
and another area of anomalous cyclonic circulations in the latitudinal zone north from 35◦ N. In particular, since anomalous
anticyclones were located in the western North Pacific and anomalous cyclones were located in the Manchuria region;
anomalous southwesterlies were reinforced in the Korean Peninsula located between the two pressure systems. These
anomalous southwesterlies were affecting the central region of China too. These anomalous southwesterlies supply the
 J.-W. Choi et al. / Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans 77 (2017) 74–88 79

Fig. 4. Same as in Fig. 3, but for (a) 850 hPa, (b) 500 hPa, and (c) 200 hPa stream flows in August. Shaded areas are significant at the 95% confidence level.

warm and humid airs from low latitude regions to the Korean Peninsula thereby making the atmosphere in the Korean
Peninsula leading to increases in the number of days with precipitation in August in the 1998–2012 period.
As for differences in 500 hPa stream flows between the two periods, the spatial distribution of the pressure systems is
similar to those in 850 hPa (Fig. 4b). Strong anomalous anticyclones were located in the western North Pacific and strong
anomalous cyclonic circulations were located in the northern region of China. That is, the low west and high east type
anomalous pressure system pattern that is a typical arrangement of pressure systems formed in the East Asia region in
summer was reinforced. Therefore, the Korean Peninsula located between these two pressure systems was being affected
by strong anomalous southwesterlies.
As for differences in 200 hPa stream flows between the two periods, the spatial distribution of the pressure systems is
similar to those in 500 hPa (Fig. 4c). Strong anomalous anticyclones were located in the western North Pacific and strong
anomalous cyclonic circulations were located in the northern region of China. Located between these two pressure systems,
the Korean Peninsula was being affected by strong anomalous southwesterlies. Therefore, it can be seen that all layers of
the troposphere above the Korean Peninsula were being affected by anomalous southwesterlies.
80 J.-W. Choi et al. / Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans 77 (2017) 74–88

Fig. 5. Spatial distribution of western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) in 1998–2012 (solid line) and 1975–1997 (dashed line) in August. Here, the
WNPSH is defined as areas that geopotential height at 500 hPa is greater than 5875 gpm.

The anomalous anticyclones reinforced in the western North Pacific in August in the 1998–2012 period might mean
that western North Pacific subtropical highs (WNPSH) were developed more compared to August in the 1975–1997 period.
Therefore, in the present study, the degrees of development of WNPSHs in the two periods were analyzed (Fig. 5). Here,
WNPSHs are defined as areas having values larger than 5875 gpm at 500 hPa. Whereas the WNPSH in the 1998–2012 period
was extended westward to the central region of China (solid line), the WNPSH in the 1975–1997 period was not only
weakened toward the East Sea of Japan but also separated into two WNPSH (dashed line). In particular, the WNPSH in
the 1998–2012 period was developed northward to the southern sea of the Korean Peninsula. Therefore in August in the
1998–2012 period when the WNPSH was developed further toward the Korean Peninsula, the Korean Peninsula was more
likely to be supplied with warm and humid airs from low latitude regions so that the number of days with precipitation
could increase. The recent strengthening of WNPSH can be related to the strong negative phase of Atlantic/Pacific trans-basin
variability (TBV). The TBV created conditions that are highly favorable for the occurrence of central-Pacific El Niño–Southern
Oscillation (ENSO), which, in turn, strongly modulated the WNPSH decadal variation (Wang and Zhang, 2002; Sui et al.,
2007; Xiang et al., 2013).
Differences between the two periods under different atmospheric conditions were analyzed. First, differences between
the two periods at 850 hPa, 500 hPa, and 200 hPa air temperatures were analyzed (Fig. 6). At 850 hPa, warm anomalies were
distributed from the central region of China to the North Pacific covering the Korean Peninsula. In particular, the center of
the warm anomalies was located in a region ranging from the central region of China to the Korean Peninsula. As analyzed
earlier, this is attributable to the recent inflows of warm airs from low latitude regions into from the central region of China
and the Korean Peninsula due to the reinforced WNPSH. On the other hand, at 500 hPa and 200 hPa, the Korean Peninsula
showed cold anomalies (Fig. 6b and c). Therefore, vertical thermal instability was quite likely to develop in the Korean
Peninsula because warm anomalies were developed at the lower layer of the troposphere above the Korean Peninsula and
cold anomalies were developed at the middle and upper layers of the troposphere. Consequently, the number of days with
precipitation might increase in August in the Korean Peninsula in the 1998–2012 period.
In addition, differences between the two periods at 850 hPa, 500 hPa, and 300 hPa specific humidity levels were analyzed
(Fig. 7a). First, at 850 hPa, positive anomalies were distributed from the central region of China to the North Pacific covering
the Korean Peninsula. In particular, the center of the positive anomalies was located in the Korean Peninsula. The spatial
distribution at 500 hPa was similar to that at 850 hPa (Fig. 7b). Positive anomalies were reinforced from the central region of
China to the North Pacific covering the Korean Peninsula and, in particular, the center of the positive anomalies was located
in the Korean Peninsula. At 200 hPa, the Korean Peninsula was also located in the area of the positive anomalies. Therefore,
it can be seen that since the WNPSH was reinforced at all layers of the troposphere above the Korean Peninsula in August in
the 1998–2012 period, more water vapors should have flowed in.
To examine whether more water vapors actually flowed into the Korean Peninsula in August in the 1998–2012 period,
differences in 850 hPa moisture convergence between the two periods were analyzed (Fig. 8). Strong positive anomalies
were located in the region ranging from the central region of China to the Korean Peninsula because warm and humid airs
from low latitude regions flowed into the Korean Peninsula in August in the 1998–2012 period because the WNPSH was
reinforced further toward the Korean Peninsula.
To examine the characteristics of vertical atmospheric circulations in the Korean Peninsula, differences in meridional
atmospheric circulations obtained by averaging the values in the 120◦ –130◦ E latitudinal zone in which the Korean Peninsula
is located between the two periods were analyzed (Fig. 9a). Whereas anomalous downward flows were developed in regions
south from 30◦ N, anomalous upward flows were reinforced in regions north from 30◦ N. The anomalous downward flows in
regions south from 30◦ N mean that the WNPSH was located in this latitudinal zone. In particular, the center of the anomalous
upward flows was reinforced in 30◦ –40◦ N which is the latitudinal zone where the Korean Peninsula is located and these
anomalous upward flows were significant at all layers of the troposphere at the 95% confidence level. In addition, anomalous
southerlies were reinforced at all layers of the troposphere. These anomalous southerlies were due to the effects of the
 J.-W. Choi et al. / Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans 77 (2017) 74–88 81

Fig. 6. Same as in Fig. 4, but for air temperature in August. Contour interval is 0.2 ◦ C. Shaded areas are significant at the 95% confidence level.

WNPSH reinforced in the regions south from 30◦ N. These vertical meridional atmospheric circulations could provide good
environments to increase the number of days with precipitation in August in the Korean Peninsula in the 1998–2012 period.
In addition, differences in vertical air temperatures obtained by averaging the values in the 120◦ –130◦ E latitudinal zone
in which the Korean Peninsula is located between the two periods were analyzed (Fig. 9b). In regions south from 20◦ N, all
layers of the troposphere showed warm anomalies. In the latitudinal zone of 20◦ –40◦ N, the lower layer of the troposphere
showed warm anomalies and the upper layer of the troposphere showed cold anomalies. The warm anomalies shown at all
layers of the troposphere in regions south from 20◦ N are considered attributable to the effects of the WNPSH. In particular,
in the latitudinal zone of 30◦ –40◦ N where the Korean Peninsula is located, vertical thermal instability was reinforced in the
Korean Peninsula because of the warm anomalies located at the lower layer and the cold anomalies located at the upper
layer (except for 400–300 hPa) so that the number of days with precipitation could be increased further in August in the
1998–2012 period.
In general, upper tropospheric jets can reinforce convergence at the lower layer of the troposphere to form upward flows
thereby inducing precipitation (Liang and Wang, 1998; Lau and Nath, 2000). Therefore, in the present study, the degrees of
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Fig. 7. Same as in Fig. 4, but for specific humidity in August. Contour interval is 0.2 g kg−1 for 850 hPa and 500 hPa specific humidity and 0.1 g kg−1 for
300 hPa specific humidity. Shaded areas are significant at the 95% confidence level.

development of upper tropospheric (200 hPa) jets in the two periods were analyzed (Fig. 10a). The upper tropospheric jet
in the 1998–2012 period developed lengthily from east to west ranging from the northern region of China to the southern
sea of the Kamchatka Peninsula covering the Korean Peninsula (solid line). On the other hand, the upper tropospheric jet
in the 1975–1997 period did not develop eastward and was located only to around 110◦ E (dashed line). In particular, the
Korean Peninsula is located under the right side of jet streak entrance in the 1998–2012 period. That is, there is a divergence
aloft over the Korean Peninsula, which means the possibility of secondary circulation in the Korean Peninsula. Therefore, it
can be seen that the possibility for upward flows to develop in the Korean Peninsula was high in August in the 1998–2012
period when the upper tropospheric jet developed lengthily from east to west. The upper tropospheric jet developed more
in August in the 1998–2012 period can be identified more clearly in the analysis of differences in 200 hPa zonal wind speed
between the two periods (Fig. 10b). Positive anomalies were located east to west ranging from the northern region of China
to the southern sea of the Kamchatka Peninsula covering the Korean Peninsula. In particular, the positive anomalies from
the northern region of China to the Korean Peninsula were significant at the 95% confidence level. This means that westerlies
were reinforced further in the upper layer of the troposphere above these regions in August in the 1998–2012 period.
 J.-W. Choi et al. / Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans 77 (2017) 74–88 83

Fig. 8. Same as in Fig. 3, but for 850 hPa moisture convergence in August. Contour interval is 4 g/kg*s−1 . Shaded areas are significant at the 95% confidence
level.

Sea conditions can also affect the stability of air at layers below the troposphere. Therefore, in the present study, dif-
ferences in SST between the two periods were analyzed (Fig. 11). In general, only the equatorial and subtropical central
Pacific showed cold SST anomalies and the remaining analysis areas showed warm SST anomalies. That is, in August in the
1998–2012 period, a weak La Niña pattern was reinforced. Meanwhile, East Asia sea areas including the sea areas in the
vicinity of the Korean Peninsula showed warm SST anomalies. Warm SST anomalies may supply warm and humid airs to
the lower layer of the troposphere to make the entire troposphere thereby increasing the possibility of the formation of
precipitation.
August is a month in which the Korean Peninsula is affected by TCs second most in the year (Choi et al., 2010a,b).
Therefore, TCs can be one of important variables that can increase the number of days with precipitation in August in the
Korean Peninsula. Therefore, in the present study, differences in TC passage frequencies between the two periods were
analyzed (Fig. 12). During the 1975–1997 period, TCs mainly passed the East China Sea to go toward the southern sea of
Japan or mainly moved in the sea east from 150◦ E. On the other hand, during the 1998–2012 period, TCs showed a pattern
of coming from the northern sea of Philippines, passing the eastern sea of China, and moving northward toward the Korean
Peninsula. As analyzed in Fig. 5, the reason why this pattern was shown is that in August in the 1998–2012 period, the

Fig. 9. Composite differences of latitude–pressure cross section of (a) vertical velocity (contours) and meridional circulations (vectors) and (b) air temper-
ature averaged along 120◦ –130◦ E between 1998 and 2012 and 1975–1997 in August. The values of vertical velocity are multiplied by −100. Bold arrows
and shaded areas are significant at the 95% confidence level. Contour intervals are 0.7−2 hPa s−1 for vertical velocity and 0.2 ◦ C for air temperature.
84 J.-W. Choi et al. / Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans 77 (2017) 74–88

Fig. 10. Spatial distributions of (a) jet streak in 1998–2012 (solid line) and 1975–1997 (dashed line) and (b) difference in 200 hPa zonal wind speed between
1998 and 2012 and 1975–1997 in August. Contour interval in (b) is 2 ms−1 . Shaded areas in (b) are significant at the 95% confidence level.

Fig. 11. Same as in Fig. 3, but for sea surface temperature (SST) in August.
 J.-W. Choi et al. / Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans 77 (2017) 74–88 85

Fig. 12. (a) Geographical distribution of difference in tropical cyclone (TC) passage frequency between the periods of 1998–2012 and 1975–1997 in August
in each 5◦ × 5◦ grid area. Small box inside circles indicate that differences are significant at the 95% confidence level. Time series of (b) Korea affecting TC
frequency in August (solid line with a closed circle) and the result of change-point analysis (dotted line) and (c) normalized values of Korea affecting TC
frequency in August.

WNPSH developed a little further toward the Korean Peninsula. Therefore, it can be seen that as the frequency of effects of
TCs was higher in August in the 1998–2012 period and this played a positive role for increases in the number of days with
precipitation in the Korean Peninsula. Meanwhile, to examine whether a climate regime shift existed in the frequency of TCs
that affected the Korean Peninsula in 1998, the time series of the frequencies of TCs that affected the Korean Peninsula in
August during the 38 years were also analyzed (Fig. 12b). Here, the TCs that affected the Korean Peninsula were defined as
TCs that passed the area of 30◦ –40◦ N and 120◦ –132◦ E (Choi et al., 2009). The time series of the TCs that affected the Korean
Peninsula showed clear interannual and interdecadal variations (solid line with a closed circle), and showed a tendency to
increase (dashed line). This tendency to increase is significant at the 90% confidence level. To examine whether climate regime
shifts existed in this time series, statistical change-point analyses were applied to this time series (dotted line). According
to the results, as with the analysis of the number of days with precipitation, the largest absolute t-value appeared in 1998.
Whereas the average frequency of effects of TCs in the 1975–1997 period was 1.3TCs, it was 2.7TCs in the 1998–2012 which
was two times the former. Here, the difference in the average frequencies of TCs between the two periods was significant
at the 90% confidence level. The interdecadal variations appearing in the time series of the frequency of TCs that affected
the Korean Peninsula can be more clearly identified in the normalized time series of the frequency of TCs that affected
the Korean Peninsula (Fig. 12c). Whereas most years in the 1975–1997 period showed negative values, most years in the
1998–2012 period showed positive values. Therefore, while the average value in the 1975–1997 period was shown to be
−0.4, the average value in the 1998–2012 period was shown to be 0.6.
Meanwhile, to examine the reason why number of days with precipitation increased in the Korean Peninsula since 1998,
in the present study, differences in global-scale atmospheric circulations (divergent wind field) between the two periods
were analyzed (Fig. 13). First, in the 850 hPa divergent wind field, the center of anomalous divergence was located in the
subtropical central Pacific and the center of anomalous convergence was located in a region ranging from the central region
of China to the Korean Peninsula (Fig. 13a). Therefore, the air diverged from the subtropical central Pacific converged in the
middle latitude region in East Asia including the Korean Peninsula. Meanwhile, the 200 hPa divergent wind field showed a
spatial distribution opposite to that in the 850 hPa divergent wind field (Fig. 13b). The center of anomalous divergence was
located in the middle latitude region in East Asia including the Korean Peninsula and the center of anomalous convergence
was located in the subtropical central Pacific. Therefore, the air diverged from the middle latitude region in East Asia was
86 J.-W. Choi et al. / Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans 77 (2017) 74–88

Fig. 13. Same as in Fig. 3, but for (a) 850 hPa velocity potential (divergent wind) and (b) 200 hPa velocity potential (divergent wind) in August. Shaded
areas denote negative anomalies. Contour interval is 3 m2 s−1 10−6 .

converged in the subtropical central Pacific. Eventually, on considering the divergent wind fields at the upper and lower
layers of the troposphere, it can be seen that the global-scale atmospheric circulations through which the air rose in the
middle latitude region in East Asia was converged and descended in the subtropical central Pacific were reinforced further
in the 1998–2012 period.

5. Summary and conclusion

In the present study, to examine whether the climate regime shift exists in the time series of the number of days with
precipitation in August in the Korean Peninsula, statistical change-point analyses were applied to the said time series.
According to the results, the subject period could be divided into the shorter rainy-day period in 1975–1997 (1975–1997
period) and the longer rainy-day period in 1998–2012 (1998–2012 period). To examine the cause of recent rapid increases
in the number of days with precipitation in August in the Korean Peninsula, differences in the averages of large-scale
environments between the 1998–2012 period and the 1975–1997 period were analyzed.
As for differences in stream flows between the two periods, anomalous cyclones were reinforced in the East Asian
continent while anomalous anticyclones were reinforced in the western North Pacific at all layers of the troposphere so
that the Korean Peninsula was affected by anomalous southwesterlies. In regions near the Korean Peninsula, whereas warm
anomalies were shown at the lower layer of the troposphere, cold anomalies were shown at the middle and upper layers
of the troposphere so that vertical thermal instability developed in those regions. In addition, upper tropospheric jets were
reinforced further recently in regions near the Korean Peninsula to provide good environments for development of upward
flows in the Korean Peninsula. These anomalous southwesterlies played an important role of supplying warm and humid
airs from low latitude regions to the Korean Peninsula. The anomalous anticyclones reinforced in the western North Pacific
were associated with the WNPSH developed a little more toward the Korean Peninsula recently. Consequently, the Korean
Peninsula has been affected by anomalous southwesterlies that supplied warm and humid airs from low latitude regions to
the Korean Peninsula. As for differences in air temperatures between the two periods, in regions near the Korean Peninsula,
whereas warm anomalies were shown at the lower layer of the troposphere, cold anomalies were shown at the middle
and upper layers of the troposphere so that vertical thermal instability developed in those regions. In addition, upper
tropospheric jets were reinforced further recently in regions near the Korean Peninsula to provide favorable environments
for development of upward flows in the Korean Peninsula. As for differences in SST between the two periods, although
a weak La Niña pattern was shown, warm SST anomalies were reinforced in the coast regions in East Asia including the
Korean Peninsula to make the entire troposphere unstable to increase the possibility of the formation of precipitation.
Statistical change-point analyses were also applied to the time series of the frequencies of TCs that affected the Korean
Peninsula in August. According to the results, as with the number of days with precipitation that rapidly increased since
1998, the frequencies of TCs that affected the Korean Peninsula also increased rapidly increased since 1998. Therefore, it
 J.-W. Choi et al. / Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans 77 (2017) 74–88 87

could be seen that the high frequency of TCs affected the Korean Peninsula in August in the 1998–2012 period also positively
affected increases in the number of days with precipitation in the Korean Peninsula. Meanwhile, differences in global-scale
atmospheric circulations (divergent wind field) between the two periods were analyzed in the present study. It could be
seen that the global-scale atmospheric circulations through which the air rose in the middle latitude region in East Asia was
converged and descended in the subtropical central Pacific were reinforced further in the 1998–2012 period.
The recent hiatus (Pacific Decadal Oscillation or mega-La Niña pattern in other word) may drive the shift as shown in
Fig. 11 (Barnett et al., 1999; Wu, 2013; Takeshi and Koji, 2014; Braddock et al., 2015; Dong and Xue, 2016). The large-
scale changes in lower and upper atmospheric circulation including jet stream, air temperature, moisture flux, moist static
stability, and divergent field in this study are all consistent with the recent hiatus. The recent increase in the TC passage
frequency in the Korean Peninsula is also associated with the recent hiatus and related large-scale atmospheric changes.
We analyzed the time-series of the number of rainy days, TC frequency around Korea, and Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(PDO) index in August (not shown). Correlation coefficients between the number of rainy days and PDO index and between
TC frequency around Korea and PDO index shows values greater than 0.35. These relationships are significant at the 90%
confidence level. Therefore, it may be possible to explain the mechanism responsible for the abrupt shift in the number of
August rainy days in the Korean Peninsula (Wang et al., 2013).

Acknowledgement

This research was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF)
funded by the Ministry of Education (2015R1D1A1A01057632).

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