Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad

Estimation of Nuptiality and its Analysis from the Census Data of Pakistan
Author(s): Nasim M. Sadiq
Source: The Pakistan Development Review, Vol. 5, No. 2 (SUMMER 1965), pp. 229-248
Published by: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/41258139 .
Accessed: 21/06/2014 12:15

Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at .
http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp

.
JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of
content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms
of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact support@jstor.org.

Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad is collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and
extend access to The Pakistan Development Review.

http://www.jstor.org

This content downloaded from 188.72.126.88 on Sat, 21 Jun 2014 12:15:28 PM

All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
 Estimationof Nuptiality
and its Analysisfrom
the CensusData of Pakistan
by
Nasim M. Sadiq*
The MuslimFamilyLaws Ordinancepromulgatedby thePakistanGovern-
mentin March 1961 requiresthe registration of all Muslim marriageswiththe
nominatedpersons. Such registrationis made practicableby the introduction
of the "Basic Democracy" systemof governmenton the local level. Beforethe
introductionof this system,therewas no all-embracingcivil organizationfor
such registration,though Muslim marriageswere generallyrecorded by the
religiousregistrarssuch as Qazis, Mosque Imams, etc. No privateor govern-
mentorganizationever triedto collect informationon marriagesfromwhich
age at marriagecould be estimated.Data underthe new provisionare not yet
available; even ifavailable, one cannotimmediatelymeasuretheirreliability.
I. METHOD OF COMPUTATION OF MEAN MARRIAGE AGE, MARRIAGE
FREQUENCIES AND MARRIAGE PROBABILITIES
In the absence of marriagestatistics,mean age, marriagefrequenciesand
probabilitiescan be computed fromcensus tabulations by age and conjugal
conditionby a methoddeveloped by JohnHajnal [211.This methodgives the
mean age at firstmarriageforall males or femalesin a synthetic
censal cohort
who marryforthe firsttimebeforea certainadvanced age, say 50 years.It also
givesmarriagefrequenciesand marriageprobabilitiesforsucha population.
Methodof Computation of Mean Age at Marriagesby HapidTs Method: If
marriage ratesbaa remained unchanged,theproportionevermarriedin successive
age groupsin a closed population(not affectedby migration)would be identical
with the proportionsattained in a "cohort**of persons frombirththrough
successiveages- providedthattherewereno differences in death ratesat given
ages betweenmarriedand unmarriedpersons.On theseconditions,a 'synthetic
cohort*can be constructedfromobservationson a cross sectionof the popula-
tion at a particularmoment.Such a procedureinvolves threeassumptions:
1) Althoughthe population of Pakistan was stronglyaffectedby migrationat
the timeof Partition,thiswas a movementof familiesso thatits age structure
is comparableto that of a closed population; 2) the natureand magnitudeof
mortalityby maritalstatus in Pakistan is unknown.It is assumed
differential
♦Dr. Sadiq, at presentDemographer of FamilyPlan-
at theNationalResearchInstitute
ning,Karachi,was a graduatestudentinEconomicsat AmericanUniversity, Washington, D.C.
He wasalso a visiting ofPopulationResearch,Princeton
fellowat theOffice University.
Thispaperis a partofthedoctoratethesissubmitted at theAmericanUniversity.
i See also, [1].

This content downloaded from 188.72.126.88 on Sat, 21 Jun 2014 12:15:28 PM

All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
230 Review
The PakistanDevelopment

thatitwouldhaveonlya minoreffect on indicesobtainedbythemethodproposed

by Hajnal. This factormustbe ignoredhere- as is usual in applicationof this
technique;3) An adjustmentwillbe made to take accountofdeviationsfromthe
initialassumptionof constancyin marriagerates in the decade priorto 1961
Census when comparabledata forthe area comprisingPakistan are available.
(This adjustmentis describedbelow).
The methodforestimatingthemean age at marriageconsistsin findingthe
total numberof years lived in the singlestate by a generationfrombirthto
age 50 yearsand dividingthibtotal by the numberwho have been removedby
marriagefroma no-mortality cohort.The averagenumberof single years lived
is also the average age at firstmarriage and is describedas the "singulate
meanageat marriage'*.
The formulaused forderivingthe mean age at marriagefromproportions
singleforPakistanis:

ins.-CD-d)^
x=d+ _
X = singulatemean age at marriage

& nfx WherenSxand nPxare the numberof singlesand total

nx n^x population betweenthe ages xto x-+ n; and nSt is
proportionin age groupx to x 4- n.
d -» earliestage at whichmarriagetakes place2.
D - maximumage (whichin our case is 50 years)
Sd - proportionsingleat exact age D. (As the population is
givenin fiveyearsage group,thiswas estimatedby tak-
ing average and is equal to 5S45+ 5S5O
2
Modification ofHajnaVs Technique:In themethodgivenabove, it isassumed
that cross-sectionalmaritalstatus data in a census are representative of the
maritalexperienceof a cohortpassing throughlifewithno mortalityand no
migration.If the patternof marriageis changingas in Pakistan, the method
originallygivenby Hajnal requiressome modification.Because of the change
in marriagerates,the proportionsinglein a censuscannot be used to represent
theperformance ofa cohortovertime.As theage distributionis usuallytabulated
2 In thecensuses of 1921to 1951,data on maritalstatusweretabulatedfromtheage
•zero'.Thiswas due to commonpatternofchildmarriage. In the1961Census,theearliestage
was takenas 10.Somechildmarriages butitsproportion
maystillbe prevalent, is so small that
it wouldnoteffectthecomparableresultson age at marriage.For earliercensuses,d=0 and
for1961calculation,itsvalueis 10.

This content downloaded from 188.72.126.88 on Sat, 21 Jun 2014 12:15:28 PM

All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
 and its Analysis
Sadiq: Nuptiality 231

in five-yeargroupsand ifalso censusdata are available foreveryfiveyears,an-

othersynthetic intercensalcohortcan be made assumingthatdifferential mort-
ality by maritalstatus is But
negligible. in Pakistan the is
census taken every
decade and only the censusesof 1951 and 1961,taken since independence,are
available. Because of the ten-yearinterval,proportionssingle for 1956 were
estimatedby takingtheaverageof thosegivenin 1951and 1961Censuses.

The probabilityof remainingsingle betweenthe years 1956 and 1961 is

calculated foreach age group,and is the inverseratio of the proportionsingle
in 1956 and the proportionssingle for the same cohort (fiveyears older) in
1961.The probabilitiesofremaining
singleare thenapplied successivelyto a hypo-
theticalcohort of one thousand persons to determinethe proportionssingle
at each age as the cohortmovesthroughtime.

The above methodin mathematicalformcan, thus,be illustrated

:

A 0951) + sS (1961)
jCno«}

wherexs5is proportionssinglein age groupx to x + 5.

5sx+5(191) The probabilityof remainingsinglefor per-
5S'* (1956)
5sx(1956) sons aged x to x + 5 in 1956 forthe next
fiveyears.
These probabilitiesare thenapplied to a cohort of one thousand persons
to get the 'syntheticintercensalcohort*in fiveyearsage group havingonly the
experienceof the fiveyears. Applyingformulagivenabove3, we get the mean
age at marriageforthe 1956-61synthetic cohort(Table I).

MarriageFrequenciesand Probabilities:The numberof marriagein a no-

mortalitycohortcan be foundfromproportionssingleby the processof differ-
encingat each age. The formulacan be interpreted
as follows:
-
sx sx+n Proportionsof the personsin originalcohortgettingmarriedfor
the firsttimewithinage groupx to x + n. The marriage frequenciesfor an
actual populationare estimatedfromtheequation.

3 This method(Hajnal's) has some limitation.As the ages are givenin quinquennial
groups,it is sometimes
hazardousto makean assumption thattheaveragenumberof persons
marryat themiddleage ofthegroup.The assumption oflinearity
does notholdwhenmostof
the personsmarryin theearlypartof theage group.In sucha case theaverageage is likelyto
lie belowthemid-point of thespan and themethodmay,therefore, overestimate themeanage
at marriage. Thislimitation
can be overcomeiftheage distribution is givenin singleyearsof
age and is without In
misreporting. the case of Pakistan,whereage misreporting is quitefre-
quentand age distributions wereonlyavailablein five-year group,this formulamightgive
satisfactoryresults.

This content downloaded from 188.72.126.88 on Sat, 21 Jun 2014 12:15:28 PM

All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
232 The PakistanDevelopment Review
= p
nMx (sx - sx+n) !LJ! ie., numberof personsmarryingwithinage group
n x to x
+ n or the marriagefrequencyof the age
group.
~
Similarly, sx sx+n = ' ^ sx+n probabilityof marrying(or not remaining
s* s% single)withintheage intervalx to x+n.
TABLE I
PROPORTIONS SINGLE BY SEX AND FIVE-YEAR AGE GROUPS IN 1951,1961,
ESTIMATED 1956AND SYNTHETIC COHORT 1956-01,PAKISTAN
Estimated Synthetic
A«e <M1951) S (1956) ,s* (1961) Cohort
** s' 5 1956-61
^_
10 .9533 .9604 .9676 .9676
15 .7618 .8094 .8571 .8635
20 .4438 .4780 .5123 .5465
25 .1828 .2012 .2197 .2512
30 .0870 .0894 .0919 .1147
35 .0464 .0494 .0523 .0671
40 .0377 .0362 .0348 .0473
45 .0258 .0268 .0278 .0363
50 .0213 .0218 .0222 .0301
Meanageat marriage 22.0 - 23.1 23.6
Female
10 .8151 .7948 .7745 .7745
15 .2729 .2639 .2549 .2484
20 .0905 .0745 .0585 .0551
25 .0304 .0274 .0245 .0181
30 .0180 .0167 .0154 .0102
35 .0143 .0136 .0128 .0078
40 .0112 .0110 .0108 .0062
45 .0110 .0102 .0095 .0054
50 .0088 .0077 .0066 .0035
Mean age at marriage 16.0 - 15.5 15.4
. , . . Source: Computedfrom[6] and [10].
Note: The methodof computation 01 proportions
singleforthe 1956-61cohortis as
follows:
The probabilityof remainingsinglein 1961of themale cohortaged 10-14in
8571.
1956is "9§o4 By aPP*ying thisprobability
to theproportionssingleof 1956-61
in theage group10-14we gottheproportions for
single the age group15-19in
thesyntheticintercensal
cohort,i.e.,
.8571
-
3g0j- x .9676 .8635.

This content downloaded from 188.72.126.88 on Sat, 21 Jun 2014 12:15:28 PM

All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
 anditsAnalysis
Sadiq: Nuptiality 233
TABLE II
PROPORTIONS SINGLE, MARRIAGE FREQUENCIES AND MARRIAGE
PROBABILITIES OF SYNTHETIC INTERCENSAL COHORT, 1956-61,BY
SEX AND FIVE-YEAR AGE GROUP, PAKISTAN
I
Proportions Marriage Marriage
single frequencies 1
probabilities

Male
10 .9676 .0324 .0065 .0324 .0066
15 .8635 .1041 .0208 .1076 .0225
20 .5465 .3170 .0634 .3671 .0875
25 .2512 .2953 .0591 .5403 .1440
30 .1147 .1365 .0273 .5434 .1452
35 .0671 .0476 .0095 .4150 .1019
40 .0473 .0198 .0040 .2951 .0675
45 .0363 .0110 .0022 .2326 .0515
50 .0301 .0062 .0012 .1708 .0369
Meanageatmarriage 23.6
Female
10 .7745 .2255 .0451 .2255 .0499
15 .2484 .5261 .1052 .6793 .2035
20 .0551 .1933 .0387 .7782 .2601
25 .0181 .0370 .0074 .6715 .1996
30 .0102 .0079 .0016 .4365 .1084
35 .0078 .0024 .0005 .2353 .0523
40 .0062 .0016 .0003 .2051 .0449
45 .0054 .0008 .0002 .1290 .0272
50 .0035 .00062 .00043 .1112* .02335
Meanageat marriage 15.4
Source:Sameas forTableI.
1. 1- 3,tX- A of remaining
Jsthe probability single the agesx- 2.5and
between
2.3
x+2.5 and ( 1 - - 3/ is the marriage
^) where^ 5tx_25
betweentheagesx to x + 1.
probability
2. Assumedvalue; calculatedvalueis .0019.
3. Assumedvalue; calculatedvalueis .0001.
4. Assumedvalue; calculatedvalueis .3519.
5. Assumedvalue; calculatedvalueis .0833.

This content downloaded from 188.72.126.88 on Sat, 21 Jun 2014 12:15:28 PM

All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
234 ThePakistanDevelopment
Review
If weapplytheproportions marryingas calculatedin Table II to thetotal
population,we get (Table III) theapproximate numberof firstmarriageat
differentages upto 50 yearswhichone would have obtainedfromthe ages
recorded in marriage iftherehad beena system
certificates of suchregistration
in Pakistan.
The lastcolumnofTable II givestheestimated averageannualprobabili-
tiesof first
marriage fora synthetic cohortof 1956-61.The figures
intercensal
.2601at theage 20 forthefemalecohortshowsthattherewereabout26 chances
outof100fora single20-yearold female(ina no-mortalitycohort)tobe married
beforeshereachedtheage 21.
TABLE III
MARRIAGE FREQUENCIES FOR 1961POPULATION BY APPLYING THE
MARRIAGE PROBABILITIES OF SYNTHETIC INTERCENSAL COHORT,
1956-61BY SEX AND FIVE-YEAR AGE GROUPS, PAKISTAN
Population Marriage
A8 (thousands) frequencies 5MX_2<5 XMX
P (thousands) per hundred
r- <MT ,< marriages

Male
10 941,589 30,507 4.59 0.92
15 767,687 79,916 12.01 2.40
20 691,879 219,326 32.97 6.59
25 L717,682 211,931 31.86 6.37
30 604,649 82,535 12.41 2.48
35 536,817 25,552 3.84 0.77
40 458,823 9,085 1.37 0.27
45 371,558 4,087 0.61 0.12
50 354,855 2,200 0.33 0.07
Female
10 749,480 169,008 23.71 4.74
15 720,099 378,844 53.15 10.63
20 687,406 132,876 18.64 3.73
25 690,850 25,561 3.59 0.72
30 549,384 4,340 0.61 0.12
35 442,520 1,062 0.15 0.03
40 396,783 635 0.09 0.02
45 294,469 236 0.03 0.01
50 287,857 171 0.02 0.004

This content downloaded from 188.72.126.88 on Sat, 21 Jun 2014 12:15:28 PM

All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
 anditsAnalysis
Sadiq: Nuptiality 235

14 I « 1 1 1 14
-j

13 13

12 12

II 11
1~ ACTUAL POPULATION (F)

10
/K i i i i i
t-T*r-MO MORTALITY COHORT (F) 10^

H8
cc
LA «
8g
k ift-- .ACTUALPOPULATION(M)
// u

z 7 - •
jj
/ 7 2

8. ! ■IK! I I I I eg
S &
g ^ ifTf
J
i
W4 COHORT(M) 5 3
SU-NOMORTALITY

3 irVi 3
2 .1 2
^4^
o I- I- I- i- I- j - i r*85'^?
- i, ^"ihj o
0 5 10 15 20 2b 30 35 40 45 50
AGE
Figure1. EstimatedAverageAnnual MarriageFrequencies forSynthetic
Cohort,1956-61,and ActualPopulationby Sex: Pakistan
Intercensal

This content downloaded from 188.72.126.88 on Sat, 21 Jun 2014 12:15:28 PM

All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
236 ThePakistan Review
Development

xz| - 1 12
1 1 p | 1 1 1 1 1
,, ii

io- l0
ff'
Q '<*; 9 tO
'

0
< J/T
'' z
B iti--^ 8S
o 7/1.1 K
&7 t£
m_4Laf!flfl
a° - jt^tIW 1
I5 - frfFis 5^
1 I J ' /I '' s

0 1-o^ot^ 1 1 1 1^*^ 1 3 1 10
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
AGE

Figure2. EstimatedAverageAnnualMarriageFrequenciesforCensusSynthetic
Cohorts,1921,1931and 1961: Pakistan.

This content downloaded from 188.72.126.88 on Sat, 21 Jun 2014 12:15:28 PM

All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
 anditsAnalysts
Sadiq: Nuptiality iyj
The plottedcurves(Figure1) ofmarriagefrequenciesofactualpopulation
are slightly to theleftfromtherectangular
shifted population(no-mortality)
curvedue to thetapering age distribution
of theactualpopulation.The peak
at 6.5 percentof malepopulationshowsthatthispercentage ofmenin a no-
mortality cohortwould marry between theages 22 and 23 in contrast
to 10.1
per cent offemalesbetweenthe years15and 16.
The Figure2 presenting
comparable marriage forthreecensuses
frequencies
showsa markedbackwardshiftin thepeak of malefrequencies of 1931 and
a highpercentage of femalesmarrying in the earlyages comparedto other
censuses.Thischangeis mainlydue to MarriageRestraint Act (discussedon
P. 239).The curvesoffemalemarriage frequenciesreacha peakat 15-16,drop
sharply outas 11thefemalesare married
to age 30-31and thenflatten byage
30. For malesthepeak is reachedabout 5 yearslaterand thefallis gradual
makinga broaderdistributionofmarriagefrequenciesthanforfemales.
II. AREA AND PERIOD COVERED FOR ESTIMATING THE MEAN
AGE AT MARRIAGE

For theestimation of changesin meanage at marriage,

censusesof 1921
to 1961are utilized.The Pakistancensusesof 1951and 1961coveredall the
area accededto it in 1947butexcludedsometribalareas and disputedterri-
toriesofJammu and Kashmir, Junagadhand somestatesofKathiawar.
FromtheBritish Indiancensuses, itis difficult
to extractthefigures
forthe
threepartitioned provincescovering preciselythedistricts
nowforming partof
Pakistan.It is assumedthatfigures on proportion singlecoveringthe whole
area of thesethreeprovincescan be utilizedforthe partwhichbelongsto
Pakistan.Thisassumption is basedon theconsideration thatwithina province
therewas notso muchvariability inthemarriage pattern.A similar
assumption
is madefor1921estimates regarding Sindwhenit was a partof theprovince
ofBombay.
Thesecensusescontaininformation on "maritalstatus"in five-year
age
group,classified to
according provinces mainreligions.
and Agedistributionfor
the 1931Censuswas availablein smoothedform.For comparisonsake these
data wereconvertedto unsmoothed formby calculatingthe originalcensus
withthehelpoftheformula
figures giveninthereportof 1931CensusofIndia.
The difference
foundin averageage at marriage
is notverygreat(TableIV).
Due to WorldWar II and thecivildisturbances in India,censusdata of
1941relating
to civilconditionbyage and provinces
(excluding nativestates),

This content downloaded from 188.72.126.88 on Sat, 21 Jun 2014 12:15:28 PM

All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
 238 The PakistanDevelopment
Review
TABLE IV
MEAN AGE AT MARRIAGE FROM PROPORTIONS SINGLE, SMOOTHED CENSUS
AND UNSMOOTHED INTER POLATED DATA FOR 1931
PAKISTAN AND PROVINCES

Area Sex Smoothed Unsmoothed

M 19.6 19.5
Pakistan
F 12.3 12.1
M 21.5 21.5
Punjab(Undivided)
F 15.2 15.0
M 19.5 19.4
Bahawalpur(PunjabStates)
F 13.8 13.4
M 19.4 19.3
Sind(Bombay)
F 12.4 12.1
M 23.1 23.2
TribalAreas
F 14.7 14.7
M 22.9 23.1
Baluchistan
F 14.5 14.2
M 18.7 18.7
East Pakistan(UndividedBengal)
F 10.8 10.6
M 23.4 23.4
N-W.F.P.
F 16.4 16.3
Source: [3].

was tabulated on the 2 per cent sample basis. These data were available for
onlyformerprovincesand not of princelystates.
m. TIME-TREND AND REGIONAL DIFFERENCES IN MEAN AGES AT
MARRIAGE

For analysingthe trendof mean age at marriage,the censusesof 1921 to

1961 were utilized.The census of 1961 did not classifythe marital status by
religiousgroupsbut gave separateinformation forurban and ruralareas. Data
by administrativedivisionswereavailable for 1951and 1961.Informationsince
1921 was also available forsome of the citiesbut not fromall the censusesand
thus thereremainedsome gaps to be filledin. For computingthe mean ages
at marriageHanjal's methodof synthetic censal cohort discussed above was
used.

This content downloaded from 188.72.126.88 on Sat, 21 Jun 2014 12:15:28 PM

All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
Sadiq: Nuptialityand its Analysis 239

Time-Trendin Mean MarriageAges: Whilethe higheraverageage at mar-

riage amongmales than femalesis noticeable,the customaryage at marriageof
femalesin all provinceshas a significantupward trendexceptfora dip in 1931
and a slightdrop in 1961. Males did not show any apparent increase up to
1951resultingin narrowingdown the difference in mean ages from7.5 yearsin
1921 to 6 yearsin 1961. Dae to slightdrop in female age and increasein male
age at marriage,the gap in 1961 has again increasedto 7.6 years.
While the age at marriageof femalesforthe whole countryincreasesfrom
13 yearsin 1921 to 15.5 yearsin 1961,the males duringthe same period gained
about 1.6 years.In theformerprovincesof Punjab, N-W.F.P. and the Bahawal-
pur State, the male age at marriagein 1951 compared to 1921 fell somewhat
whilein otherprovinceslittlechangeis observed.
The dip of 1931is due to Child MarriageRestraintAct whichwas enforced
on April 1, 1930. The voice of social reformersagainst the curse of earlymar-
riages especially of females resultedin passing this Act which prohibitedall
marriagesinvolvinggirls under fourteenand boys under eighteen.Up to a
certain extent,the Legislative Act interferedwith the Hindu and Muslim
Personal Laws and thus got resistencefromall sections throughout India.
The Bill itselftook a long timein vigorousdebatingin the LegislativAssembly;
became Law on October 1, 1929 and was enforcedfromApril 1930. Many
personstook advantage of thedelay of the Act and solemnizedearlymarriages
of theirchildrenwhichmightnot have taken place in the ordinarycourse of
time. Accordingto the 1931 Census, the proportionof Muslim child-wives
undertenyearsof age was higherin some provincesthanamong Hindus [4; 5].
The analysisof proportionssinglein censusestaken after1931 show that
thoughchild marriagehas dwindledto minorproportion,the legislationwas
well intentionedbut provedto be of a recommendatory characterand not fully
effectivein practice.Non-registration of birthsand marriages,the impossibility
of findingthe exact ages of couples and difficulty in gettinginformation about
marriages in isolated villages,are possible reasons for its ineffectiveness.
Any
change in child marriage seems to be due, in additionto the effectof legisla-
tion, to increasingliteracy,social and economic changes,and enlightenment,
resultingfromthecontactwiththewiderworld,duringand afterWorld War II.
It is also noticeablethatthe risein age at marriagesince 1921 is due to the
increasein proportionssingleup to the age group 20-24. Above that thereis
littlechange(Table V).
The slightdrop of 1961 in the femalemarriageage appears to be due to
externalcauses: the effectof civil disturbanceson independence,the unsettled

This content downloaded from 188.72.126.88 on Sat, 21 Jun 2014 12:15:28 PM

All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
240 Review
ThePakistanDevelopment

8 1 -
in

I
-

i 8
***

I -
ex
I
S «o » v. t^ « d d

h a-
I «^t<nj;jo;rn<Orndd6 -j g

£
(a ^ ]5 S 6"'nil<i:{3«!*O''O d«>£;5!t--Hdd c

u- I?
SoonSb

I- i s?!^S^SiGS2P;2 S^Sgi!2g^E: 111

Is ^ <s ^3 g S
|i-8'&
SKS5825S«S3S 2SS3SJ23S alp

I m a O ri

i goN a a

1*88!
Ill
^2 I

This content downloaded from 188.72.126.88 on Sat, 21 Jun 2014 12:15:28 PM

All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
 and itsAnalysis
Sadiq: Nuptiality 241

economiccondition,and migration.The difficulty

in findingproperpartners,due
to separation of relativesand unfamiliarneighbourhood,mightbe another
reason forsome of thedelay in marriagesbefore1951.In 1961the greaterdrop
in female marriageage is in East Pakistan. One reason mighthave been the
new marriagelaw of 1961beforewhichmanymarriageswerecelebratedin East
Pakistan.

Anotherimportantreason can be explainedin termsof drop in thenumber

of femalesat the ages when theycommonlymarry.The famineof 1943, epi-
demicand World War II not onlydepressedthe marriagerate but considerably
increasedmortalityin the youngerage groupsresultingin a smallercohort0-9
in 1951 [6]. This smallercohortwas in theage group 10-19in 1961and changed
slightlythe marriageage. Since the males marrygirlswho are 5 to 10 years
youngerthan themselves,the figuresin the followingtabulation fullysupport
our demographicexplanationforearlyfemalemarriagein 1961.

Percentage change in population from 1951 to 1961

East Pakistan WestPakistan

Age (
Males I Females Males Females
10-14 -13.0 "-293"
15-19 -6.8 -6.2 -2.6 -12.7
20-24 6.6 12.8 17.3 20.8
25-29 17-9 32.5

The figuresin the above tabulationshow that femalepopulationdeclined

in both provincesin the age groups 10-14 and 15-19 while male population
slightlydecreased in 15-19but increasedin 20-24, the peak years of marriage
frequencies.The deficitof females 10-19 reduced the supply of brides at the
conventionalage at marriagewithouta correspondingreductionin grooms.
Therefore,morethantheusual proportionof theseyounggirlswould be pressed
into marriagewhilemales of the usual marriageage would necessarilyremain
bachelors.

Variationin Age at Marriage by Administrative Divisions: Besides social

and cultural factors,industrialization,urbanizationand literacyhave great
influencein the regional patternsof marriage.Due to amalgamation of all
provincesof West Pakistan into one unit,the census of 1961 did not classify
thedata accordingto formerprovinces.Analysisof regionalpatternsofmarriage
are made fromtheinformation of maritalstatusby Administrative Divisions.

This content downloaded from 188.72.126.88 on Sat, 21 Jun 2014 12:15:28 PM

All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
242 Review
ThePakistanDevelopment

TABLE VI
MEAN AGE AT MARRIAGE IN 1961 BY ADMINISTRATIVE DIVISIONS AND
URBAN-RURALAREAS, PAKISTAN

MALE FEMALE
Division -
Urban Rural Total Urban Rural Total

Pakistan 24.4 22.9 23.1 17.8 15.1 15.5

(22.0) (16.0)

East Pakistan 25.2 22.7 22.9 15.9 13.8 13.9

(22.4) (14.5)

Rajshahi 24.3 21.8 21.9 15.6 12.9 13.0

(21.9) (13.0)
Dacca 25.5 23.0 23.3 16.0 13.8 13.9
(22.9) (14.0)
Chittagong 25.7 23.5 23.7 16.6 14.7 14.8
(22.2) (16.2)
Khulna 24.5 22.2 22.3 15.3 13.5 13.6

WestPakistan 24.1 23.4 23.5 18.3 17.4 17.6

(21.8) (17.9)
Peshawar 25.1 24.2 24.5 18.8 18.0 18.2
Dera IsmailKhan 24.3 23.7 23.7 18.5 17.4 17.6
Rawalpindi 24.1 24.1 24.0 18.7 18.0 18.2
(21.4) (18.9)
Sargodha 23.6 23.8 23.8 18.1 18.5 18.5
Lahore 24.4 23.4 23.7 19.1 18.2 18.5
(21.1) (18.6)
Multan 23.4 23.2 23.2 17.7 17.1 17.1
(21.2) (17.7)
Bahawalpur 22.4 22.5 22.5 17.1 16.5 16.5
Khairpur 22.2 22.0 22.0 16.5 15.1 15.4
Hyderabad 22.2 21.8 21.9 18.0 16.0 16.5
Quetta 24.6 24.9 24.9 18.1 16.8 17.2
Kalat 23.6 22.9 23.0 15.9 14.8 15.0
Karachi 25.5 25.0 25.4 18.2 17.1 18.1
(24.8) (16.9)
Note: Figuresfortheyear1951are in parentheses. Sources:[6;10].

This content downloaded from 188.72.126.88 on Sat, 21 Jun 2014 12:15:28 PM

All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
 and itsAnalysis
Sadiq: Nuptiality 243

The generalchangesin each divisionfrom1951to 1961are nearlythe same

as theaverage of the provincein whichit lies. Whereasthe mean ages of males
in nearlyall divisionshave increased,the female mean age has slightlydec-
reased.
In WestPakistan,thehighestmean age of males is in theKarachi Division,
a centreof commerceand industries,characterizedby greaterurbanization,
higherliteracy,a high sex ratio of 131 (due to migrantsfromupcountry)and
the concentrationof Christiansand Parsees who generallyhave greaterpropor-
tionssingleat all ages as well as a large proportionwho nevermarry.
The Lahore and Sargodha Divisionshave thehighestmean age at marriage
forfemalesin WestPakistan.The highage forthelargelyagriculturalSargodha
Division is hard to explain.
Late marriageamong femalesin the Lahore Division seemsto be the result
of the high rate of literacy[7], location of provincialcapital and a centreof
educationattracting theeducated fromotherpartsof thecountry.
In East Pakistan, Chittagonghas the highestmean age for males and
females.Reasons for this fact mightbe the high rate of literacyand greater
percentageof Hindus and other religiousgroup (includingChristians)in the
population[8].
In 1951,the mean age at whichmales marriedwas somewhatlowerinWest
Pakistanthan in East Pakistan. This relationbecame quite the reversein 1961.
Females in West Pakistan still marry later than their counterparts in
East Pakistan.
Urban-RuralDifferencesin Mean Age at Marriage: No clear urban-rural
differencesemerge in women'spropensity to marryin WestPakistan. Spinsters
appear to bs slightlyfrequentat all ages in urban areas perhapsbecause of the
educationand socio-culturaleffectsof urban life.Late marriageamong males
seems to be the reason for migrationfromrural to urban areas. Due to the
lack of data, theeffectof migrationon age at marriagecould not be verified.
The East Pakistan figuresshow that both men and women marryearlier
in the rural than in the urban areas. There is a difference
of 2.5 yearsand 2.1
years within the ages at marriageof males and femalesfor the two regions.
Urban-ruraldifference in female age at marriagein Pakistan may be due
to many factors.People in the rural areas are more fatalisticand tradition-
mindedcomparedto thosein urban areas who are somewhatmoreprogressive.
Level of educationalso effectsthemarriage,as in theurbanareas thepercentage
of literacyis 23.3 per cent and in the rural areas 7.2 per cent among female

This content downloaded from 188.72.126.88 on Sat, 21 Jun 2014 12:15:28 PM

All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
244 Review
ThePakistanDevelopment

population[11]. It is also observedthatthereis a growingtendencyamongmales

in the urban class to marrywhentheyhave some economic securityin life.A
girl's parentsalso tryto get a husband for theirdaughterwho can properly
supportherand a family.
This urban-ruraldifferencein marriageage probablyaffectsthe fertilityof
the country.Earlier marriageand proportionallymore marriedwomen in the
ruralareas resultin higherchild-womanratiocomparedto urbanareas. Where-
as in ruralareas the ratioswere 84, 87 and 79 forthe whole country,East and
WestPakistanrespectively, thecorresponding figuresin urbanareas were78, 85,
and 76 respectively.

Mean Age at MarriagebyReligiousGroups:The comparisonofmeanages at

marriagefor the successivecensus years (1921-51) show that all the religious
communitieshave taken part in the move towardlater marriage. The dip of
1931 is commonforall groups.Muslimmales show no significant change. The
change has generallybeen greatestamongtheHindu women,who wereformerly
theyoungestones to marry.Christianwomenmarrylaterthan womenof other
religiouscommunities.
Child marriageamongall religiousgroupsof East Pakistanwas at one time
therule ratherthantheexception.Now it is goingout of fashionrapidlyunder
the combinedinfluenceof social and economicchanges.Though childmarriage
still occurs, its extentis becomingfar less significant.
Accordingto the .1931
55
census, per cent of Muslim and 60 per centof Hindu girlsin the age group
5-14 were single. The census of 1951 shows 85 and 94 per cent forthe two
religiousgroups. Since 1931 the age at marriageof femalesis higheramong
Caste Hindus thanamong Muslims.Amongthe Scheduled Caste Community,
the figuresapproach morenearlythoseof Muslims. The figuresfor Schedule
Caste in East Pakistanare similarto thosefor Sind on the male side. The
womenof thiscommunity, however,marrylaterin Sind,a surprising factsince
the shortageof womenis moreacute in thelatterprovince.
WestPakistan,whichis mainlycomprisedof Muslims,has different marriage
trendsfor males and females.While femaleage at marriagehas an upward
trend,theage at marriageof theoppositesex is continuously decreasingand the
gap in the is
ages narrowing. This may be due to a declinein femalemortality
resultingin an increasein the supplyof girls.
Among the "otherreligiousgroups" (mainlycomprisedof Christiansand
Parsees,the mosteducated class) in Karachi, theages at marriageare 26.7 and
22.8 formales and females,respectively.In thesecommunities, the proportion

This content downloaded from 188.72.126.88 on Sat, 21 Jun 2014 12:15:28 PM

All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
 anditsAnalysis
Sadiq:Nuptiality 245

I SSiS^ 22S2 2 Ms 22 I I 1 I SSS l& I 2 I 1 I I 2S2*>

^

a 1 Si i i Si i i i i i i 2| i i i i i i i i i i i i i i.ggi |
•3 £
? | S I I I g I ! | ! I I I § I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I gS | |

1 3 | I I |3 M |2 i I ig I I I I I I I I lS I I M I M I l2
' ''
j 1 I I lS 1 I IS I I lg I M I I I I I lg I I I I I Ig

% S T
^ I 1^ ^
3 § m^^ws rnr^rto; I I I '-z; Is 2 I I I ~~<**>

319 g
g
S
hTj;wO
mcs^so
0'OfiOH ^ .«
,
invdvood »n I I i^ vovo | |
»« . ,
| I ^^
CN Tf
|^
O O'
| 2 | | | I tiottri
m Tf <S ^

1
|8
g g g rof^Ttin »o«nv£$o6 ^^ | f**vdvdt^oo rtos r4<s-<tvd »n ^ ^t «nvo vo ^4 q ^ ^

S I-
^ o irivc5vc?c>.
^^^fif*:1^ °. ^! ^".*i °9 ^ ^. ^ ^1 ") *0 ^* °i °i P ^ ^ ont^ t^ M;

U
^"H ^ 1-1 1-H »-t 1"H
ro»n fS rnTt »o «o S ro rf »n
^1-<^^ y-t^y-t^ ^^y-iv-i y-t^y-iy-i ^(^H 1-1 1-1 ^ ^-|
o <NO"t»n F3r^5»o Sf^5»^ Srn5«n jn £3 5 co «n
^ OnO'ONO' ONONONON OnOnOnON ONONONON ONON ONONONON ON O' ONONON ON ^N ONONO'

1 2a

*5b *5 *e*
I , I
_S ^ f3 *O
gi il
etf3 P-«-»
P6 ^ Qh PQ ^ b do mPQ PQ W

This content downloaded from 188.72.126.88 on Sat, 21 Jun 2014 12:15:28 PM

All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
246 The PakistanDevelopment
Review

J3 eo eo o ^ ^i °© "* ^t « I '♦-ON- S
- £ fi
2 |
V©fOrne>OV>VOOS'©

I
£ ^ ^ rf CO ON
liS «O NO «T> NO
I | I
g

_ £ ;
2

I
4>
cO
vo rt r^ r^ co a.
f^i r^i I' 'I 1
2 ri <n r^ ^*
^
<n rf
^i '

I I-
JO

i i i i i i i i i
o
US o 1 ^
s, en

si
£
I I I I I I I I ! 0 J2
S
t^^tf^NOON
ro r^**nit Tt
NNMNN

a&
51
o
1 § I I I § I I I
2!
•g» E »o^rNo^f^
On

I 5 I I I a I I I

I
o
«« *0 • i .I i *0 ^ ^ »2 ^ ^ ^-J^t *0
g ro I I I r*o no vo «n«of"- Tlr«n
g

g a- o vq in p *-n^r
73 ro I' I' Ii I' v> eo ^
2 <s n <m ^

IS? **
8
I illll.
* I M 1 i 111 oS <2<J<2O ,

This content downloaded from 188.72.126.88 on Sat, 21 Jun 2014 12:15:28 PM

All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
Sadiq: Nuptialityand itsAnalysis 247

lower,especiallyon thefemaleside,and
whichis marriedupto age 45 is distinctly
theproportionnever-married is quite highcomparedto othercommunities.
Late marriagein Baluchistanand N-W.F. Province,regionsof highsex ratio,
greaterilliteracyand almost totally Muslim population, seems to be mainly
theaffectof local and tribalcustoms.The social customof Walwar(brideprice),
whichis paid by thebridegroomor his father,somewhatdelaysthemarriage[9].
The man has to wait untilhe or his familyhas put aside enoughcapital to pur-
chase a wife.The price depends on the tribal custom,the familystatus and
financialpositionas wellas on the good looks and accomplimentof thebride.
To ba keptsingleby her relativesuntila suitorof sufficientwealthmaterializes
also resultsin thelate marriageof females.

Differencesin Mean Age at MarriageAmongCities: The age at marriageis

an
showing upward trendin citiesas it is throughoutPakistan. Mean marriage
age for male and female is greaterin cities compared to other urban areas.
The difference betweencitiesare due to education and nearnessto industries.
Lahore represents thehighestage forfemalesperhapsbecause it is a culturaland
educational centre.Dacca has the highestage at marriage for males which
may be due to the factthatit is theprovincialcapital,and industrialcentreand
has a highsex ratio.The censusdata of 1951also showsthatboth sexesof Caste
Hindus marrylaterthan Muslims.The ScheduledCastes are nearerto Muslims
in theirpatternsof marriage.
In the citiesof East Pakistan,thereis some indicationthat nuptialityhas
decreased a littlesince 1951. More men appear to remainunmarriedin towns
than in villages because of the imbalance of sexes resultingfrommigration.

This content downloaded from 188.72.126.88 on Sat, 21 Jun 2014 12:15:28 PM

All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
248 ThePakistanDevelopment
Review
REFERENCES
1. Agarwala, S.N., "Mean Ages at Marriage and Widowhood in India",
FamilyPlanningNews,October 1961.
2. Hajnal, John,"Age at Marriage and ProportionsMarrying",Population
Studies,Vol. VII, No. 2, November1953.
3. India, Censusof 1931, Vol. I, Partll. (New Delhi: Governmentof India).
4. , Census of 1931' PartsI and II. (New Delhi: Governmentof
India).
5. , Censusof 1931, Vol. V: Bengal and Sikkim,Part I, Report.
(Calcutta).
6. Pakistan, Censusof Pakistan 1951, BulletinNo. 4. (Karachi: Officeof
the Census Commissioner).
7. , Censusof Pakistan1951, VolumeV. Punjab. (Karachi: Officeof
the Census Commissioner).
8. , Census of 1951, VolumeHI. East Bengal. (Karachi: Office
of theCensus Commissioner).
9. , Census of 1951, Vol. II. Baluchistan. Report and Tables.
(Karachi: Officeof theCensus Commissioner).
10. , Census ofPakistan 1961, BulletinNo. 3. (Karachi: Officeof
the Census Commissioner).
11. , Census of 1961, Bulletin No. 4. (Karachi: Office of the
Census Commissioner).

This content downloaded from 188.72.126.88 on Sat, 21 Jun 2014 12:15:28 PM

All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions