California

Housing Market
Update
Monthly Sales and
Price Statistics
July 2019
Sales
 Sales highest since April 2018,
and mark the first yearly gain in 15 months

700,000 California, July 2019 Sales: 411,630 Units, -4.9% YTD, 1.1% YTY
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
-
May-06

May-08

May-10

May-12

May-14

May-16

May-18
Jan-05
Sep-05

Jan-07
Sep-07

Jan-09
Sep-09

Jan-11
Sep-11

Jan-13
Sep-13

Jan-15
Sep-15

Jan-17
Sep-17

Jan-19
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
3
 California home sales have first yearly gain
in 15 months
25% Year-over-Year % Chg 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Year-over-Year % Chg)
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
4
 Bay Area sales decreased in July
but continues trending upward
30% Bay Area 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Bay Area)
20%

10%
YoY % chg.

0% -0.6%

-10%

-20%

-30%
May-10

May-11

May-12

May-13

May-14

May-15

May-16

May-17

May-18

May-19
Jan-10

Sep-10
Jan-11

Sep-11
Jan-12

Sep-12
Jan-13

Sep-13
Jan-14

Sep-14
Jan-15

Sep-15
Jan-16

Sep-16
Jan-17

Sep-17
Jan-18

Sep-18
Jan-19
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
5
 So. California sales
saw large increase in over a year
So CA 6 per. Mov. Avg. (So CA)
40%
30%
20%
YoY % chg.

10% 3.9%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
Jan-10

Sep-10
Jan-11

Sep-11
Jan-12

Sep-12
Jan-13

Sep-13
Jan-14

Sep-14
Jan-15

Sep-15
Jan-16

Sep-16
Jan-17

Sep-17
Jan-18

Sep-18
Jan-19
May-10

May-11

May-12

May-13

May-14

May-15

May-16

May-17

May-18

May-19
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
6
 Central Valley sales had
the biggest increase in nearly a year a half
30% Central Valley 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Central Valley)
20%

10% 5.2%
YoY % chg.

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%
May-10

May-11

May-12

May-13

May-14

May-15

May-16

May-17

May-18

May-19
Jan-10

Sep-10
Jan-11

Sep-11
Jan-12

Jan-13

Sep-13
Jan-14

Sep-14
Jan-15

Sep-15
Jan-16

Sep-16
Jan-17

Sep-17
Jan-18

Sep-18
Jan-19
Sep-12

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
7
 Sales up at every price point except
at lower and top ends
July 2019 (YTY% Chg.) Share by Price Segment
0% 10% 20% 30%
15% 11.6%
10% $0 - $299k 12.7%
5.3% 5.9%
5% 3.1% $300 - $399k 15.5%
1.0%
0% $400 - $499k 13.5%
-1.4% $500 - $749k 25.6%
-5%
$750 - $999k 11.8%
-10% -8.0%
$1,000 - $1,999k 13.3%
$2,000k+ 3.7%

SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
8
Sales by Region
July 2019 Home Sales Growth by
July 2019 Home Sales by Region Region
6.0% 5.2% 5.0%
5.0%
Other Counties 3.9%
4.0%
Central 8%
3.0%
Coast 1.9%
2.0%
4%
Central 1.0%
Valley 0.0%
23% -1.0% -0.6%

S.F. Bay
Southern
Area
California
19%
46%

CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

page
9
 Pending sales surge to highest
level in over 2 years
10%
YTY % Chg. in Pending Sales

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

-20%

SERIES: Percent Change in Pending Sales page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
10
Price
 California median price
moderates in July

$700,000 California, July 2019: $607,990, -0.4% MTM, +2.8% YTY

$600,000
$500,000
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000
$-

May-18
Jan-05
Sep-05
May-06
Jan-07
Sep-07
May-08
Jan-09
Sep-09
May-10
Jan-11
Sep-11
May-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
May-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
May-16
Jan-17
Sep-17

Jan-19
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
12
 Home prices stabilize in search for
equilibrium
50% Condo Single-Family Homes
40%
30%
20%
YTY% Chg. in Price

10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
Sep-05

Sep-07

Sep-09

Sep-11

Sep-13

Sep-15

Sep-17
Jan-05

May-06
Jan-07

May-08
Jan-09

May-10
Jan-11

May-12
Jan-13

May-14
Jan-15

May-16
Jan-17

May-18
Jan-19
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condo/Townhomes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
13
 Condo/Townhome prices decrease
modestly
$600,000 California, July 2018: $485,000, July 2019: $470,000
$500,000
Median Price

$400,000

$300,000

$200,000

$100,000

$0
Feb-09

Apr-10

Apr-17
Jan-05
Aug-05
Mar-06
Oct-06

Aug-12
Mar-13
May-07

Nov-10
Jun-11
Jan-12

Oct-13

Sep-16
Dec-07
Jul-08

May-14

Nov-17
Jun-18
Jan-19
Sep-09

Dec-14
Jul-15
Feb-16
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condos/Townhomes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
14
 Price/Square Foot slightly down
from last month and inched up from last year

$400
July 2019: $290, -0.3% MTM, Up 0.3% YTY

$350
PRICE PER SQ. FT.

$300
$250
$200
$150
$100
$50
$0
Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-19
Jul-07

Jul-08

Jul-09

Jul-10

Jul-11

Jul-12

Jul-13

Jul-14

Jul-15

Jul-16
Jan-17

Jan-18
Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19
SERIES: Median Price Per Square Feet of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
15
 Sales Price-to-List Price ratio dipped slightly
as market moves towards the end of the peak season
July 2019: 99.0%, -0.2% MTM, -0.6% YTY

100%
Sales-to-List Price Ratio

98%

96%

94%

92%

90% Jul-11

Jul-18
Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19
Jul-07

Jul-08

Jul-09

Jul-10

Jul-12

Jul-13

Jul-14

Jul-15

Jul-16

Jul-17

Jul-19
SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
16
Year-over-Year Price Growth by Percentile

California Year-over-Year Price Growth by Quintile (July 2019)

7% 6.3%
6%
5%
4% 3.2%
3%
1.9%
2%
1% 0.2%
0%
-1% -0.7% -0.8%
-2% -1.3%
-2.0%
-3% -2.4%
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100
Percentile

SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
17
 Mortgage payment continued to drop;
rates lowest in 33 months
30 Yr. FRM California Median Price vs. Mortgage
6% Payment
20%
5% 4.53% 15%
4% 3.77% 10%

YTY% Chg.
5%
3%
0%
2% -5%
1% -10%

Jan-16

Sep-16
Jan-17

Sep-17
Jan-18

Jan-19
May-16

May-17

May-18

May-19
Sep-18
0%

May-19
Jan-15

Sep-15
Jan-16

Sep-16
Jan-17

Sep-17
Jan-18

Sep-18
Jan-19
May-15

May-16

May-17

May-18

Price Growth Mortgage Pmt Growth

SERIES: Price Growth vs. Mortgage Payment Growth page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
18
 Mortgage payment continued to drop;
rates lowest in 33 months
California Median Price vs. Mortgage Payment
20%
15%
YTY% Chg.

10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%

May-17
Jan-16
Mar-16

Jul-16
Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Mar-17

Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
Mar-18

Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19

Jul-19
May-16

May-18

May-19
Price Growth Mortgage Pmt Growth
SERIES: Price Growth vs. Mortgage Payment Growth page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
19
 List price growth vs. sales

California Median Sales vs. List Price Growth

40%
30%
YTY% Chg. in Price

20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
May-16
Sep-16
Jan-17
May-17
Sep-17
Jan-18
May-18
Sep-18
Jan-19
May-19
Listing Price Sales Price

SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
20
 Market Velocity

100.0%
150.0%

-150.0%
-100.0%
-50.0%
0.0%
50.0%
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Price Growth

Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Market Velocity (6 month trailing average)

Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Sep-17
California Market Velocity and Price Growth

Dec-17
Mar-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
Market Velocity

SERIES: Market Velocity & Price Growth

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
50.0%
40.0%

-50.0%
-40.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%

-30.0%

21

Existing SFR Median Price

Growth
page
 Inventory &
Active Listings
 Inventory index down due primarily
to increase in sales
18.0 July 2018: 3.3 Months; July 2019: 3.2 Months
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0

SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
23
 Supply improved in
the top end of the market

July 2019
Active Listing
20%
9.5% 9.6%
10%
4.5%
0%
-0.4% -2.1%
-10% -7.8%
-20% -14.8%

SERIES: Active Listings of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
24
 Regional inventory levels decrease

9.0
8.0 Bay Area So CA Central Valley
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0 3.5
3.0 2.7
2.0 2.5
1.0
0.0
Jan-09

Jul-09

Jan-10

Jul-10

Jan-11

Jul-11

Jan-12

Jul-12

Jan-13

Jul-13

Jan-14

Jul-14

Jan-15

Jul-15

Jan-16

Jul-16

Jan-17

Jul-17

Jan-18

Jul-18

Jan-19

Jul-19
SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
25
 Inventory Index Highest in Millions

California Unsold Inventory Index by Segment

12
9.9
10 9.1
8
6 4.65.2
3.63.6 3.43.9 3.94.2 3.3 3.3
4 3.13.0 3.12.9 3.12.9 2.72.9
2
0

Jul-18 Jul-19

SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
26
 Active listings dip for first time since Mar 2018

Year-over-Year % Chg
40%

30%

20%

10%
-2.1%
0%

-10%

-20%

Jul-17

Sep-18
Mar-15

Mar-16

Mar-17

Mar-18

Mar-19
May-15
Jul-15

Nov-15

May-16
Jul-16

Nov-16

May-18
Jul-18

Nov-18

May-19
Jul-19
Jan-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

Sep-16

May-17

Nov-17
Jan-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

Jan-19
SERIES: Active Listing of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
27
 Active listings increased in Bay Area and Central Coast
but not in SoCal & Central Valley
Jul-18 Jul-19
35,000
30,569
30,000 28,749
Active Listings

25,000
20,000
15,000
11,490 10,467
10,000
7,032 7,684
5,000 2,810 2,906
0
San Francisco Bay Southern California Central Valley Central Coast
Area

SERIES: Active Listings of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
28
 Active listings in SoCal & Central Valley dipped
while Bay Area & Central Coast saw increase
July 2019

20% Sales Active Listings

Year-to-Year % Chg

10% 9.3%
5.2% 5.0%
3.9% 3.4%

0%
-0.6%

-6.0%
-10% -8.9%
San Francisco Bay Southern California Central Valley Central Coast
Area

SERIES: Sales and Listings of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
29
Active Listings by Month

California Active Listings by Month

70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0

2018 2019

CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

page
30
Market Competitiveness
 Time on Market ticked up again
following last month’s rebound
California, July 2019: 21.0 Days
80
70
60
DAYS ON MARKET

50
40
30
20
10
0
Jan-05
Sep-05

Jan-07
Sep-07

Jan-09

Jan-11
Sep-11

Jan-13
Sep-13

Jan-15
Sep-15

Jan-17
Sep-17

Jan-19
May-06

May-08

May-10

May-12

May-14

May-16

May-18
Sep-09

SERIES: Median Time of Market of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
32
Median Time on Market by Percentile

California Median Time on Market by Quintile

30
2526
25
20 20 21 21 21 20
20 18 1818 18 18 19 19 18
17 17
15 15
15
10
5
0
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100 Total
Percentile
Jul-18 Jul-19

SERIES: Median Time on Market of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
33
 Sales-to-List Price Ratio by Percentile

California Sales-to-List Price Ratio by Quintile

100.5%
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
100.0%
99.6%
99.5% 99.4% 99.4%
99.3%
99.0%
98.5% 98.3%
98.0%
97.5%
97.0%
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100
Jul-18 Jul-19

SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
34
 Median sales vs. list price growth $1M+ properties

California Median Sales vs. List Price Growth

15%
YTY% Chg. in Price

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

Dec-16
May-12

May-17
Jun-09

Apr-10

Aug-13

Jun-14

Apr-15

Aug-18

Jun-19
Jan-09

Nov-09

Jul-11
Sep-10
Feb-11

Dec-11

Oct-12
Mar-13

Jan-14

Nov-14

Jul-16
Sep-15
Feb-16

Oct-17
Mar-18

Jan-19
Listing Price Sales Price

SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
35
 Reduced-Price Listings

Share of Listings with a Reduced Price: 39.6%; Median Reduction Amount: -4.2%
50% 0%
45% -1%
40% -2%
35% -3%
30% -4%
25% -5%
20% -6%
15% -7%
10% -8%
5% -9%
0% -10%
1/1/2013

1/1/2019
1/1/2010
5/1/2010
9/1/2010
1/1/2011
5/1/2011
9/1/2011
1/1/2012
5/1/2012
9/1/2012

5/1/2013
9/1/2013
1/1/2014
5/1/2014
9/1/2014
1/1/2015
5/1/2015
9/1/2015
1/1/2016
5/1/2016
9/1/2016
1/1/2017
5/1/2017
9/1/2017
1/1/2018
5/1/2018
9/1/2018

5/1/2019
Share Reduced Median Reduction
SERIES: Listing Price of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
36
 Growth in Reduced-Price Listings

Growth in Share of Listings with a Reduced Price: +1.6%

Growth in Median Reduction Amount: 0.0%
8% 0.00%
6% -0.05%
4% -0.10%
2% -0.15%
0% -0.20%
-2% -0.25%
-4% -0.30%
1/1/2016

11/1/2017
1/1/2015
3/1/2015
5/1/2015
7/1/2015
9/1/2015

3/1/2016
5/1/2016
7/1/2016
9/1/2016

1/1/2017
3/1/2017
5/1/2017
7/1/2017
9/1/2017

1/1/2018
3/1/2018
5/1/2018
7/1/2018
9/1/2018

1/1/2019
3/1/2019
5/1/2019
7/1/2019
11/1/2015

11/1/2016

11/1/2018
Share Reduced Median Reduction

SERIES: Listing Price of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
37
Thank You