Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
INTRODUCTION
Demand forecasting refers to the prediction or estimation of a future situation
under given constraints.
Pricing is one of the four Ps of the marketing mix. The other three aspects are
allocation theory. Price is the only revenue generating element amongst the 4ps,
the rest being cost centers. Pricing is the manual or automatic process of applying
prices to purchase and sales orders, based on factors such as: a fixed amount,
quantity break, promotion or sales campaign, specific vendor quote,
priceprevailing on entry, shipment or invoice date, combination of multiple orders
or lines, and many others. Automated systems require more setup and maintenance
but may prevent pricing errors.
1
Often forecasting demand is confused with forecasting sales. But, failing to
forecast demand ignores two important phenomena. There is a lot of debate in the
demand planning literature as how to measure and represent historical demand,
since the historical demand forms the basis of forecasting. Should we use the
history of outbound shipments or customer orders or a combination of the two to
proxy for demand.
Stock effects
The effects that inventor y levels have on sales. In the extreme case of stock-outs,
demand coming into your store is not converted to sales due to a lack of
availability. Demand is because the desired sizes are no longer available. For
example, when a consumer electronicsretailer does not display a particular flat-
screen TV, sales for that model are typically lower than the sales for models on
display. And in fashion retailing, once the stock level of a particular sweater falls
to the point where standard sizes are no longer available, sales of that item are
diminished.
The effect of market events that are within and beyond a retailer’s control. Demand
for an item will likely rise if a competitor increases the price or if you promote the
item in your weekly circular. The resulting sales increase reflects a change in
demand as a result of consumers responding to stimuli that potentially drive
additional sales. Regardless of the stimuli, these forces need to be factored into
planning and managed within the demand forecast.
METHODS
METHODS OF FORECASTING
Forecasting demand based on expert opinion. Some of the types in this method are,
• Unaided judgment
• Prediction market
•Delph itechnique
•Game theory
•Judgmental bootstrapping
• Simulated interaction
• Intentions and expectations surveys
3
Conjoint analysis
FORECASTING
The basic ingredient of any demand plan is a statistical forecast. Statistical models
and resulting forecasts are the building blocks of the planning process.
4
3.Causal models that include a variety of Multiple Linear Regression Models and
happening in the future and these include Logit, Probit and Tobit models
DEMAND FORECASTING
Firms that offer rapid delivery to their customers will tend to force all competitors
in the market to keep finished good inventories in order to provide fast order cycle
times. As a result, virtually every organization involved needs to manufacture or at
least order parts based on a forecast of future demand. The ability to accurately
forecast demand also affords the firm opportunities to control costs through
5
leveling its production quantities, rationalizing its transportation, and generally
planning for efficient logistics operations.In general practice, accurate demand
forecasts lead to efficient operations and high levels of customer service, while
inaccurate forecasts will inevitably lead to inefficient, high cost operations and/or
poor levels of customer service. In many supply chains, the mostimportant action
we can take to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the logistics
process is to improve the quality of the demand forecasts.
Since the logistics system must satisfy specific demand, in other words what is
needed, where and when, accurate forecasts must be generated at the Stock
Keeping Unit (SKU) level, by stocking location, and by time period. Thus, the
logistics information system must often generate thousands of individual forecasts
each week. This suggests that
6
useful forecasting procedures must be fairly "automatic"; that is, the forecasting
method should operate without constant manual intervention
In practice, however, most firms have found that the planning and operation of an
effective logistics system requires the use of accurate, dis-aggregated demand
forecasts.
The manufacturing organization may need a forecast of total product demand by
week, and the marketing organization may need to know what the demand may be
by region
7
GENERAL APPROACHES TO FORECASTING
All firms forecast demand, but hardly any two firms forecast demand in exactly the
same way. Over the last few decades, many different forecasting techniques have
been developed in a number of different application areas, including engineering
and economics. Many such procedures have been applied to the practical problem
of forecasting demand in a logistics system, with varying degrees of success. Most
commercial software packages that support demand forecasting in a logistics
system include dozens of different forecasting algorithms that the analyst can use
to generate
alternative demand forecasts. While scores of different forecasting techniques
exist, almost any forecasting procedure can be broadly classified into one of the
following four
basic categories based on the fundamental approach towards the forecasting
problem that is employed by the technique.
9
DETERMINANTS FOR DEMAND FORECASTING
- Replacement demand
- New demand
- Replacement demand
- New demand
10
- Disposable income of people
CHAPTER 2
INTRODUCTION
Research can be defined as the search for knowledge or any systematic
investigation to establish facts. The primary purpose for applied research is
discovering, interpreting, and the development of methods and systems for the
advancement of human knowledge.
STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM:
One of the core issues, companies are facing today is the increase in man power
cost. Coupled with this is a pressure the downsize and manage with fewer people,
thus increasing efficiency and employee productivity. Companies are also realising
the need for insuring that competent people are available for performing various
critical roles. There is recognition that technology, finance, customers and market
system and process can all be set right or managed effectively with the right kind
of human resources. Apart from this, there is a focus on performing roles, time
management, mentoring of competence, increased emphasis on performance
management system and recognition of the strategic advantage given by the
employee competencies in building the core competencies of the organisation. All
these factors are pushing up the value of competency mapping in enterprise.
The engineering industry requires highly skilled man power with specialised
technical skills. It is very important that competent people are available for
ensuring efficiency and productivity. In order to nurture competence and build core
11
competencies, Competency Mapping has become an important function of the HR
department.
Therefore the researcher has undertaken the study titled “Competency Mapping” in
ASEA BROWN BOVERI PRIVATE LIMITED.
TITLE OF THE STUDY
The study titled “A STUDY ON DEMAND FORECASTING”
OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY:
1. To understand the level of competencies for various functions.
2. To find out the gaps in competency for various functions.
3. To assess the training need for building required competencies for
a specific function.
4. To assess whether the employees have a positive attitude towards
their job.
12
2. Sources of data: Primary and secondary sources of data were used for the
purpose of this study. Primary data was sourced with the help of an
interview schedule. Books and internet were the source of secondary data.
1. Limitations:
a. Time was a major constraint in undertaking the study.
b. This study is conducted for academic purpose only.
c. The data was not exhaustive
1. Chapter scheme
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION
This is a general introduction to demand forecasting.
CHAPTER 2: RESEARCH DESIGN
This chapter outlines the research design adopted, title of the study, research
methodology, objectives, scope and significance of the study, source of data, data
collection instruments and the limitations of the study.
CHAPTER 3: COMPANY PROFILE
This chapter studies the organisational profile of the company, achievements,
product range, company philosophy and performance of the organisation.
13
CHAPTER 5: ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION
This chapter is about the analysis of relevant data over the study period and
interpretation of the same.
CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY OF FINDINGS, SUGGESTIONS AND
CONCLUSION.
This is the last chapter of the study, which gives the findings of analysis and
conclusion drawn from the analysis.
14
BHARATHI ENTERPRISES
Bharathi Enterprises, Kanakanagar, Bangalore-32
Contact: 9845260197
Bharathi Aqua Solutions, a technology and customer service oriented premier Water & Waste
Water treatment Company, where “Trust is a Tradition”. The company is powered and
backed by professionals with rich experience and expertise in the water & Waste water treatment
and allied fields. Presently we have operations in Bangalore. Shortly we are planning to
commence branches in Tamil Nadu and Hyderabad.
We draw vast experience in our operations from the various types of projects handled. This
confidence and experience makes us competent both technically and commercially to provide
Detailed engineering, Design, Erection, Commissioning of Hi -tech Water & Waste Water
treatment Projects to customers ranging from Central & State Government Organisations,
Indian Islands.
Travel Directions
From
15
To
Lat
We are in water treatment since 1995, and establish a chain of products from de-
mineralized water packaged drinking water, distilled water, electroplating water,
phosphating water coolant water, water for pharmaceuticals, food products, and
steam iron, for boiler, for printing purpose, for water base emulsion /distemper &
microbiological activity.
In our endeavour to maintain strict quality controls each unit purchases performs
& caps only from approved vendors. We produce our own bottles in-house. We
have recently procured the latest world class state of the art machineries that puts
us at par with International standards. This has not only helped us improve
packaging quality but has also reduced raw material wastage & doubled production
capacity. You can be rest assured that you are drinking safe & pure water when
16
you consume our mineral water. Bharathi is free of impurities & 100% safe. Enjoy
the Sweet taste of Purity !
The bottled water industry is one of the most thriving sectors in India. The market is
growing at a whopping rate of about 55 per cent annually and is expected to cross
Rs. 1000-crore mark within the next couple of years.
Almost all major national and international brands have taken a plunge. Parle's
Bisleri that virtually monopolized the bottled water market is now vying with Nestle,
Coca Cola, PepsiCo, Manikchand, UB and Britannia. According to a national-level
study, there are close to 200 bottled water brands in India. Nearly 80% of these are
local brands.
17
In India, the per capita bottled water consumption is still quite low - less than five litres a year as
compared to the global average of 24 litres. However, the total annual bottled water consumption
has risen rapidly in recent times - it has tripled between 1999 and 2004 - from about 1.5 billion
litres to five billion litres.
The rise of the Indian bottled water industry began with the economic liberalisation process in
1991. The market was virtually stagnant until 1991, when the demand for bottled water was less
than two million cases a year. However, since 1991-1992 it has not looked back, and the demand
in 2004-05 was a staggering 82 million cases. India is the tenth largest bottled water consumer in
the world. In 2002, the industry had an estimated turnover of Rs.10 billion (Rs.1,000 crores).
Today it is one of India's fastest growing industrial sectors. Between 1999 and 2004, the Indian
bottled water market grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25 per cent - the
highest in the world.
With over a thousand bottled water producers, the Indian bottled water industry is big by even
international standards. There are more than 200 brands, nearly 80 per cent of which are local.
Most of the small-scale producers sell non-branded products and serve small markets. In fact,
making bottled water is today a cottage industry in the country. Leave alone the metros, where a
bottled-water manufacturer can be found even in a one-room shop, in every medium and small
city and even some prosperous rural areas there are bottled water manufacturers.
Despite the large number of small producers, this industry is dominated by the big players - Parle
Bisleri, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Parle Agro, Mohan Meakins, SKN Breweries and so on. Parle was
the first major Indian company to enter the bottled water market in the country when it
introduced Bisleri in India 25 years ago.
Bottled water is sold in a variety of packages: pouches and glasses, 330 ml bottles, 500 ml
bottles, one-litre bottles and even 20- to 50-litre bulk water packs. The formal bottled water
18
business in India can be divided broadly into three segments in terms of cost: premium natural
mineral water, natural mineral water and packaged drinking water.
Premium natural mineral water includes brands such as Evian, San Pelligrino and Perrier, which
are imported and priced between Rs.80 and Rs.110 a litre. Natural mineral water, with brands
such as Himalayan and Catch, is priced around Rs.20 a litre. Packaged drinking water, which is
nothing but treated water, is the biggest segment and includes brands such as Parle Bisleri, Coca-
Cola's Kinley and PepsiCo's Aquafina. They are priced in the range of Rs.10-12 a litre.
Attracted by the huge potential, that India's vast middle class offers, multinational players such
as Coca-Cola and PepsiCo have been trying for the past decade to capture the Indian bottled
water market.
Today they have captured a significant portion of it. However, Parle Bisleri continues to hold 40
per cent of the market share. Kinley and Aquafina are fast catching up, with Kinley holding 20-
25 per cent of the market and Aquafina approximately 10 per cent. The rest, including the
smaller players, have 20-25 per cent of the market share.
19
o
4
1
2
kb
a
m0
i5
tq
s%
n
u
h
a l
a
e
rfe
r siyr
i
n
k a
e
t
s
h
a
r
e
o
f
d
i
f
f
e
r
e
n
t
c
o
m
p
a
n
i
e
s
Consumption of bottled water in India is linked to the level of prosperity in the different regions.
The western region accounts for 40 per cent of the market and the eastern region just 10.
However, the bottling plants are concentrated in the southern region - of the approximately 1,200
bottling water plants in India, 600 are in Tamil Nadu. This is a major problem because southern
India, especially Tamil Nadu, is water starved.
20
The majority of the bottling plants - whether they produce bottled water or soft drinks - are
dependent on groundwater. They create huge water stress in the areas where they operate
21
because groundwater is also the main source - in most places the only source - of drinking water
in India. This has created huge conflict between the community and the bottling plants.
Private companies in India can siphon out, exhaust and export groundwater free because the
groundwater law in the country is archaic and not in tune with the realities of modern capitalist
societies.
Treatment and purification account for the major cost. Even with the state-of-the-art treatment
system with reverse osmosis and membranes, the cost of treatment is a maximum of 25 paise a
litre (Rs.0.25/litre). Therefore, the cost of producing 1 litre of packaged drinking water in India,
without including the labour cost, is just Rs.0.25. In a nutshell, in manufacturing bottled water,
the major costs are not in the production of treated and purified water but in the packaging and
marketing of it.
The cost of a bottle, along with the cap and the carton, is the single biggest cost - between
Rs.2.50 and Rs.3.75 for a one-litre bottle. For water sold in big plastic jars (20-50 litres), which
are also reused, or in pouches, this cost is much lower. It is precisely owing to this that
companies sell water at even Re.1 a litre in a 20-50 litre jar and still make profits. Labour and
establishment and marketing costs are highly variable and depend on the location and size of
companies. Informal discussions with industry members reveal that the gross profit of this
industry can be as much as between 25 and 50 per cent.
The reason that companies do not have to bear the cost of the main raw material - water - has
made this industry highly profitable. But the real cost of the industry is huge.
22
CHAPTER 4
ANALYSIS AND INTERPRRETATION
Analysis of data is a process of inspecting, cleaning, transforming, and modeling
data with the goal of highlighting useful information, suggesting conclusions, and
supporting decision making. Data analysis has multiple facets and approaches,
encompassing diverse techniques under a variety of names, in different business,
science, and social science domains.
Data mining is a particular data analysis technique that focuses on modeling and
knowledge discovery for predictive rather than purely descriptive purposes.
Business intelligence covers data analysis that relies heavily on aggregation,
focusing on business information. In statistical applications, some people divide
data analysis into descriptive statistics, exploratory data analysis, and confirmatory
data analysis. EDA focuses on discovering new features in the data and CDA on
confirming or falsifying existing hypotheses. Predictive analytics focuses on
application of statistical or structural models for predictive forecasting or
classification, while text analytics applies statistical, linguistic, and structural
techniques to extract and classify information from textual sources, a species of
unstructured data. All are varieties of data analysis.
SALES RECORD OF MINERAL WATER OF BHARATHI MINERAL WATER
23
2005 45
2006 52
2007 48
2008 55
2009 60
ANALYSIS
The sales of Bharathi nenterprises in the year 2005 is Rs. 45,000 and there is an
increase of sales upto 52,000 and there is a dip a sales to 48,000 and again there is
a rise in sales to 60,000 in 2009.
INTERPRETATION
The above graph shows a fluctuations in the sales of the company due to intense
competition in the market.
24
YEARS SALES Rs. X X2 XY
thousand
(Y)
2005 45 1 1 45
2006 52 2 4 104
2007 48 3 9 144
2008 55 4 16 220
2009 60 5 25 300
N=5 ∑Y=260 ∑X=15 ∑X2= ∑XY=813
55
25
Y 2010 42.1+3.3(6) 61.9
= =
Y 2011 42.1+3.3(7) 65.2
= =
Y 2012 42.1+3.3(8) 68.5
= =
Y 2013 42.1+3.3(9) 71.8
= =
Y 2014 42.1+3.3(10) 72.1
= =
Y 2010 61.9
Y 2011 65.2
Y 2012 68.5
Y 2013 71.8
Y 2014 72.1
26
ANALYSIS
The above table shows the estimated sales is in 2010 is 61.9 lakhs, in 2011 is 65.2,
in 2011 it is 65.2 in 2012 it is 68.5 in 2013 it is 71.8, in 2014 it is 72.1.
INTEPRETATION
The sales of Bharathi enterprises has evidently on the growth spurt and the figures
of estimated sales shows that the company will remain in good standing for next
how the company will at 5 years. It depends on how the company will adapt itself
with the environment and its competitors.
SUMMARY OF FINDINGS
➢ The sales of Bharathi aqua solutions in the year 2005 is Rs. 45 lakhs.
➢ Compare to 2005 in 2006, there is an increase in sales by 8%
➢ Compared to 2007, there is a dip in sales by 8% lakhs due to intense
competition by other already established mineral water brands.
➢ In 2008, there is an increase in sales to 55 lakhs compared to 2007.
➢ Compared to 2009, there is an increase in sales by 5% .
➢ It is seen that there are fluctuations in the sales of the company due to
intense competition in the market.
➢ The sales of Bharathi aqua solutions enterprises has evidently on the growth
spurt and the figures of estimated sales shows that the company will remain
in good standing for next coming 5 years. It depends on how the company
will adapt itself with the environment and its competitors.
27
SUGGESTIONS
➢ the company is facing intense competion from the already
established brands like bisleri, kinley, aquafina etc therefore it has
to work upon its marketing stratergies
➢ the company has a few local permenent customers which is a big
advantage of the company. it has to strenthen local customers.
➢ the company has to expand its product line in order to survive in
the market.
➢ the company is not well known to most of the people and therefore
it is one of the biggest drawbacks
CONCLUSIONS:
28
These are boom times for the Indian Bottled Water Industry - more so because the
economics are sound, the bottom line is fat and the Indian government hardly cares
for what happens to the nation's water resources.
The majority of the bottling plants - whether they produce bottled water or soft
drinks - are dependent on groundwater. They create huge water stress in the areas
where they operate because groundwater is also the main source - in most places
the only source - of drinking water in India. This has created huge conflict between
the community and the bottling plants.
Private companies in India can siphon out, exhaust and export groundwater free
because the groundwater law in the country is archaic and not in tune with the
realities of modern capitalist societies.
The existing law says that "the person who owns the land owns the groundwater
beneath". This means that, theoretically, a person can buy one square meter of
land and take all the groundwater of the surrounding areas and the law of land
cannot object to it. This law is the core of the conflict between the community and
the companies and the major reason for making the business of bottled water in
the country highly lucrative.
29