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Introduction
Before taking a deep dive into the actual rules and mechanics of the
options writing strategy proposed by David let us first step back and look
at the strategy of options writing itself from a broad philosophical
perspective. By definition the return of an option writer is pretty tiny
compared to the unlimited risk of loss if markets move sharply and
swiftly against the option writer. How then can we justify such an
apparently risky strategy that is adopted not just by David but by all the
Global Investment Banks like Goldman Sachs & BNP Paribas across their
equity derivative trading platforms?
In fact Global Investment Banks go a step further and sell all kinds of
structured optionality on all kinds of assets like equity, fixed income &
commodities to their clients not just in the listed space but also in the
Over The Counter (OTC) market. How does such a risky strategy prove so
perennially profitable for trades like David and banks like Goldman? No
one can perhaps solve this mystery better than Jim Leitner.
Jim Leitner - Global macro wizard
We had a study done on the foreign exchange options market going back to
1992, where one-year straddle options were bought every day across a wide
variety of currency pairs.We found that even though implied volatility was
always higher than realized volatility over annual periods, buying the straddles
made money. It’s possible because the buyer of the one-year straddles is not
delta hedging but betting on trend to take the price far enough away from the
strike that it will cover the premium for the call and the put. Over time, there’s
been enough trend in the market to carry price far enough away from the strike
of the one-year outright straddle to more than cover the premium paid.
If the option maturity is long enough, trend can take us far enough away from
the strike that it’s okay to overpay.O
ptions take away that whole aspect of
having to worry about precise risk management. It’s like paying for someone
else to be your risk manager. Meanwhile, I know I am long XYZ for the next six
months. Even if the option goes down a lot in the beginning to the point that the
option is worth nothing, I will still own it and you never know what can happen.”
This is a concept that that very few option traders understand. “High vol”
does not mean huge trends. And “low vol” does not mean no trends.
Leitner exploits this kink in option theory by “overpaying” for optionality
from a volatility perspective but still winning from trending markets.
Moreover those “overpriced” long-dated options become essential in
choppy markets. They allow a trader to “outsource” risk management.
The trader can play for a long term trend without the risk of getting
stopped out by a head fake.
(We discuss all the important concepts related to David’s options trading
like volatility & theta decay in the topics below. The topic of delta
hedging short options with futures is beyond the scope of this material
nor particularly required to implement David’s option writing strategy)
If we flip the script of Leitner’s strategy on long term options we finally
begin to understand why selling short dated options is such a profitable
strategy for David & the Global Investment Banks. Options, both
short-dated and long-dated, are always overpriced from an implied
volatility perspective. Hence Investment banks can always make money
by selling options and delta hedging.
For the long-dated options however there is enough time for a strong
trend to develop and take hold, thereby “bailing out” the buyer even
though he has “overpaid” for the options. However the probability of such
trends developing in the short term especially in the course of one
month which is the duration of the options which David keeps selling is
indeed very low. Thereby selling short-dated options as a strategic
investment tool always proves to be so profitable when consistently
done over long periods of time.
When the buyer purchases the put, they are essentially entering a
contract that says “by expiration, I believe this stock price will be lower
than my strike price, which will allow me to sell the stock at a premium”.
The seller is entering the opposite side of this contract that says, “by
expiration, I believe this stock price will NOT be lower than my strike price,
which will allow me to keep the credit I originally received.” At expiration,
as long as the stock price is above the same breakeven price as the
buyer, the seller will be profitable. Just like with calls, the put seller has
more ways to be profitable.