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Canada

Canadians’ Opinion On The


Results of the Election and Voting
Behaviour
13th August 2019
METHODOLOGY ABOUT MAINSTREET
The analysis in this report is based on results of With 20 years of political experience in all three
a survey conducted between July 30th to 31st, levels of government, President and CEO Quito
2019 among a sample of 2463 adults, 18 years Maggi is a respected commentator on international
of age or older, living in Canada. The survey was public affairs.
conducted using automated telephone interviews
(Smart IVR). Respondents were interviewed on Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet
both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is Research has provided accurate snapshots of
intended to represent the voting population of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP
Canada. government in Alberta, and was the only polling firm
to correctly predict a Liberal majority government
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research in the 2015 federal election. Mainstreet also
and was sponsored by iPolitics and Groupe accurately predicted the 2018 Ontario election and
Capitales Médias. was the first to predict that a CAQ majority win in
the 2018 Quebec election. Mainstreet Research
The sampling frame was derived from both is a member of the World Association for Public
a national telephone directory compiled by Opinion Research and meets international and
Mainstreet Research from various commerically Canadian publication standards.
available sources and random digit dialing. The
part of the survey that dialed from the directory was CONTACT INFORMATION
conducted as a stratified dial of the ten Canadian In Ottawa:
provinces. In the case of random digit dials, Quito Maggi, President
respondents were asked the additional question quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
of what region of the country they resided in.
In Toronto:
The margin of error for this poll is +/- 1.97% and is Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
accurate 19 times out of 20. joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca

(full methodology appears at the end of this Find us online at:


report) www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
CANADIANS EXPECT A MINORITY GOVERNMENT IN OCTOBER

13th August 2019 (Ottawa, ON) – Most Canadians think that a minority government is the most likely result of
the federal election in October, with Canadians evenly split on whether the Liberals or Conservatives will win.

Those are the findings of a new Mainstreet Research/iPolitics/Groupe Capitales Médias poll, which surveyed
2463 Canadians between July 30th and July 31st. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 1.97% and is accurate
19 times out of 20.

“Much like the federal voting intention numbers that we released last week, Canadians are not sure who
is going to win in October,” said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “Canadians’
perception is that this will be a competitive election.”

Just under 56% of Canadians think it will be a minority government in October, compared to 25.4% who think
it will be a majority.

When asked which party they thought would win in October, just under 41% said the governing Liberals
would win, while another 41% said the Conservatives were going to win.

“Often in politics, perception is reality,” added Maggi. “While the horserace numbers indicate a Liberal
advantage as of today, Canadians are expecting a close battle between the Conservatives and the Liberals.”

Also, the survey found that most Canadians would consider voting strategically to stop their least preferred
party from winning. 63.4% of those surveyed said that they are at least somewhat open to voting strategically.

“This could spell trouble for Andrew Scheer’s electoral chances if Green and NDP voters judge that the
Conservatives have a chance of winning,’’ said Maggi. “Our findings indicate that they could move to a party
that is best able to stop the Conservatives from winning, most likely the Liberals.”

The survey also found that most Canadians would not choose “none of the above” if that option were available
on the ballot, with 52.5% saying that they would not pick “none of the above.” Removing the 17% who said
they were not sure, the number of Canadians who would decline the “none of the above” option rises to just
over 63%.

“This finding tells us that Canadians are engaged and not apathetic,” Maggi continued. “Canadians are
comfortable with their choices on the ballot.”

Also, just over 60% of Canadians said that a party’s platform and policies are the most important factor when
they are considering whom to vote for, with just under 19% saying the party leader is the most important
factor, and 12% saying the local candidate is the most important.

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:


Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
Who do you think is going to win the federal election
in October?
11.2%
11.2%

0.9%
0.9%
1.9%
1.9%
1.3%
1.3%
2.9%
2.9%
40.9%
40.9%

40.9%

40.9%

Liberals Conservatives NDP Bloc Quebecois Greens PPC Not Sure

Liberals Conservatives NDP Bloc Quebecois Greens PPC Not Sure

What do you think is the most likely result of the federal election in
October?

18.5%
18.5%
25.4%
25.4%

56.1%
56.1%

Majority Government Minority Government Not Sure

Majority Government Minority Government Not Sure


When thinking about who to vote for in October, I would pick “none
of the above” if the option were available on the ballot.

17.2% 16.4%
16.4%
17.2%

13.9%
13.9%

37%
15.5%
37%
15.5%

Strongly Agree Somewhat Agree Somewhat Disagree Strongly Disagree Not Sure

Strongly Agree Somewhat Agree Somewhat Disagree Strongly Disagree Not Sure

I would consider voting strategically in order to stop the party that I


disagree with most from winning.

9.6%
17.2% 16.4%

16.2%

40.8%
13.9%

10.9%
37%
15.5%

22.6%

Strongly Agree Somewhat Agree Somewhat Disagree Strongly Disagree Not Sure

Strongly Agree Somewhat Agree Somewhat Disagree Strongly Disagree Not Sure
What to you is the most important factor to you
when considering who you vote for?

9.2%
18.6%

9.2%
18.6%

12%

12%

60.2% 60.2%

The Party Leader The Local Candidate The Party's Platform or Policies None of the Above

Leader The Local Candidate The Party's Platform or Policies None o


Breakout Tables
When thinking about who to vote for in October, I would pick “none of
the above” if the option were available on the ballot
Gender Age Region
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC AB Prairies ON QC Atlantic
Strongly Agree 16.4% 16.7% 16.1% 16.8% 18.7% 14.8% 15.1% 15.4% 17.1% 16.2% 15.3% 18.4% 16.9%
Somewhat Agree 13.9% 13.3% 14.5% 13.5% 14.3% 14% 14% 17.7% 15% 19.9% 11.8% 13.9% 11.1%
Somewhat Disagree 15.5% 15.5% 15.5% 17.1% 14.3% 15.4% 14.8% 12.4% 10.1% 14.1% 13.6% 23% 16.3%
Strongly Disagree 37% 40.1% 34% 36.8% 39.7% 38.4% 31.7% 31.9% 37.6% 34% 40.9% 33.3% 39.2%
Not Sure 17.2% 14.5% 19.9% 15.9% 13% 17.4% 24.3% 22.6% 20.2% 15.9% 18.5% 11.3% 16.5%
Unweighted Frequency 2466 1423 1043 454 627 738 647 321 211 168 747 868 151
Weighted Frequency 2466 1221 1245 686 618 679 484 336 279 161 945 576 169

I would consider voting strategically in order to stop the party that I


disagree with most from winning
Gender Age Region
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC AB Prairies ON QC Atlantic
Strongly Agree 40.8% 41.2% 40.3% 40.8% 42.8% 39.8% 39.4% 42.8% 43.3% 40% 42.5% 34% 46.2%
Somewhat Agree 22.6% 21.7% 23.5% 20.3% 22.7% 23.2% 25% 24.8% 21.6% 23.7% 23.6% 20.7% 20.1%
Somewhat Disagree 10.9% 10.6% 11.1% 11.1% 10.6% 11.8% 9.7% 8.3% 8% 7.6% 9.5% 18.5% 5.8%
Strongly Disagree 16.2% 19.1% 13.4% 19% 15.7% 15.8% 13.4% 14.1% 19.9% 16.1% 15.1% 17% 17.7%
Not Sure 9.6% 7.4% 11.7% 8.8% 8.2% 9.4% 12.5% 10.1% 7.2% 12.7% 9.3% 9.8% 10.1%
Unweighted Frequency 2466 1423 1043 454 627 738 647 321 211 168 747 868 151
Weighted Frequency 2466 1221 1245 686 618 679 484 336 279 161 945 576 169

What to you is the most important factor to you when considering who
you vote for?
Gender Age Region
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC AB Prairies ON QC Atlantic
The Party Leader 18.6% 19.6% 17.6% 12.2% 16.9% 21% 26.5% 15.1% 12.6% 12.6% 20.9% 20.2% 23%
The Local Candidate 12% 10.5% 13.4% 8.6% 8.5% 14.1% 18.3% 16.2% 15.1% 7.4% 9.6% 10.7% 20.4%
The Party's Platform or Policies 60.2% 61.9% 58.6% 70.3% 66.5% 55.5% 44.6% 58.3% 61.2% 66.2% 61.7% 61.7% 43.8%
None of the Above 9.2% 8% 10.4% 8.9% 8.1% 9.4% 10.7% 10.4% 11.1% 13.8% 7.8% 7.5% 12.8%
Unweighted Frequency 2466 1423 1043 454 627 738 647 321 211 168 747 868 151
Weighted Frequency 2466 1221 1245 686 618 679 484 336 279 161 945 576 169
Who do you think is going to win the federal election in October?
Gender Age Region
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC AB Prairies ON QC Atlantic
Liberals 40.9% 38.7% 43.1% 37.5% 43.4% 40.9% 42.7% 34.8% 24.3% 23.9% 47.8% 46.3% 39.4%
Conservatives 40.9% 46% 35.8% 45.1% 41.3% 39.2% 36.5% 42.9% 59.4% 54.2% 36.7% 33.6% 41.4%
NDP 2.9% 3% 2.9% 3.4% 3.3% 2.6% 2.2% 4% 0.4% 6.9% 2.7% 3% 2.4%
Bloc Quebecois 1.3% 1.1% 1.4% 1.8% 0.9% 1.1% 1.1% 0.8% 0.4% - 0.7% 2.8% 2.9%
Greens 1.9% 1.1% 2.8% 2.2% 1.4% 2.3% 1.8% 3.8% 3.8% 1.7% 1.3% 1.1% 1.9%
PPC 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 1% 0.8% 0.8% 1.1% - 1.5% 0.5% 1.4% 2%
Not Sure 11.2% 9.3% 13.1% 9% 8.6% 13.1% 14.9% 12.7% 11.7% 11.8% 10.4% 11.7% 9.5%
Unweighted Frequency 2466 1423 1043 454 627 738 647 321 211 168 747 868 151
Weighted Frequency 2466 1221 1245 686 618 679 484 336 279 161 945 576 169

Now we are going to ask a slightly different question. What do you think
is the most likely result of the federal election in October?
Gender Age Region
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC AB Prairies ON QC Atlantic
Majority Government 25.4% 28.9% 22% 25.1% 25.2% 24.2% 27.7% 21.9% 24% 28.2% 26% 25.8% 27.3%
Minority Government 56.1% 57.4% 54.9% 54.2% 58.7% 56.6% 54.8% 56.7% 54.2% 49.8% 56.4% 59.2% 51.8%
Not Sure 18.5% 13.7% 23.1% 20.7% 16.1% 19.2% 17.5% 21.4% 21.8% 22% 17.6% 14.9% 20.9%
Unweighted Frequency 2466 1423 1043 454 627 738 647 321 211 168 747 868 151
Weighted Frequency 2466 1221 1245 686 618 679 484 336 279 161 945 576 169
Full Questionnaire
When thinking about who to vote led by Jagmeet Singh
for in October, I would pick “none Green Party of Canada led by
of the above” if the option were Elizabeth May
available on the ballot. People’s Party of Canada led by
Strongly Agree Maxime Bernier
Somewhat Agree Not sure who is going to win the
Somewhat Disagree election
Strongly Disagree
Not Sure Now we are going to ask a
slightly different question. What
I would consider voting do you think is the most likely
strategically in order to stop the result of the federal election in
party that I disagree with most October?
from winning. A majority government
Strongly Agree A minority government
Somewhat Agree Not Sure
Somewhat Disagree
Strongly Disagree
Not Sure What is your gender?
Male
What to you is the most important Female
factor to you when considering
who you vote for? What is your age group?
The party leader 18 to 34 years of age
The local candidate 35 to 49 years of age
Neither 50 to 64 years of age
None of the above 65 years of age or older

Who do you think is going to win


the federal election in October?
Liberal Party of Canada led by Justin
Trudeau
Conservative Party of Canada led by
Andrew Scheer
New Democratic Party of Canada
Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between July 30th,
2019 and July 31st, 2019, among a sample of 2463 adults, 18 years of age or older, living
in Canada. The survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents were
interviewed on both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the
voting population of Canada.

The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and was sponsored by iPolitics and
Groupe Capitales Médias.

The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various commercially available sources and random digit dialing.
The survey that dialed from the directory was conducted as a stratified dial of the ten Canadian
provinces. In the case of random digit dials, respondents were asked the additional question
of what region of the country they resided in. Respondents were dialed at random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances
of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as
possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age,
gender, and region.

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 1.97% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are
higher in each subsample.

The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 2.6%, Females: +/- 3.03%,
18-34 age group: +/- 4.6%, 35-49 age group: +/- 3.91%, 50-64 age group: +/- 3.61%, 65+
age group: +/- 3.85%, British Columbia: +/- 5.47%, Alberta: +/- 6.75%, Prairies: +/- 7.56%,
Ontario: +/- 3.59%, Quebec: +/- 3.33%, Atlantic Canada: +/- 7.98%.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of
error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.